 Welcome everybody to not financial advice live. We do this once a week and we shift channels and today it is on mine Thankfully get to see two of my friends from the space been in the cryptiverse and guy from coin Bureau gentlemen Welcome back to the show appreciate you coming off Yeah, yeah, yeah, so so real quick I just want to say again. Thanks to guy was at the coin Bureau live event really fun Got to hang out with the guy and his and his crew I also got to meet Ben and his crew are I naked to meet Ben Sorry at the end of the cryptiverse live crew and host with her people and it was great and I got to tell you There are some interesting things ahead of what is going on And of course if you haven't if you're not subscribed to these two gentlemen Here's Ben's channel and the cryptiverse links description and coin Bureau I would like to highlight two videos for everybody to watch after this Ben put out a banger of a video the cardano outlook, which is pretty interesting and If you're a cardano holder, you might want to watch that also There's a good one called Bitcoin do be a speculation and then there was a really good one That then it was him and Gareth Salloway They've done two so far if you're really into data and TA and things like that it's like do not miss So it's more of a back-and-forth than what this is and then over at guys second channel If you I don't know if you hold ethereum But this was a good video the eath to 50,000 crypto price prediction, which everybody loves There's a lot of good data in their point So check that out, but that is for everybody when they leave here you can find out in the description let's talk about some questions today and The first thing we have and over a multitude of things There is this. I don't know if you've heard about this, but there was a Bitcoin ETF apparently by black rock and Fidelity and a couple of other different different players So the question that we have today is is this Bitcoin ETF rally wanted and sustainable We'll talk about what can derail Bitcoin dominance I know I'm always talking about Bitcoin dominance Maybe some other people have heard about this and we'll talk about the Powell pause of the skip Is it enough moving forward and then we'll get to the big question which a lot of people have been asking Myself included when alts so first things first The Bitcoin ETF rally now the narrative right now is it's bullish with ETFs and bank custody of cryptos into play Is the price action warranted for the rally we've seen is it sustainable and really you have to ask yourself because there's so many things Going on are we really front-running the big players? Are we the ones in control? Are we getting in front of black rock and all the different institutional players? So I will start with guy and see what he says about this one Is this sustainable is it warranted are we front-running big institutional money? Yeah, lots of good questions. It's um, I guess to start with yeah I mean, I think I think the rally that we're seeing certainly is warranted given given the potential inflows you know into BTC not just from a Blackrock ETF, but I mean working on the assumption that Blackrock's application gets approved, which I think that I mean, I think there's a pretty good chance that it will I mean, let's not rule anything out. This is the SEC we're dealing with after all But it seems to me such a otherwise strange time to be to be filing this sort of application Yeah, big spot ETFs applications were a meme a few months ago Towards the end of last year just everyone just Everyone just sending in filing a spot bit Bitcoin ETF application, you know every man and his dog was at it and The SEC just sort of I you know just kind of seemed to bury its head in the sand Didn't it just sort of ignored them? You know actually one by one. They all just they all got rejected so If at a time like this when the SEC is you know for want of a better term at war with the crypto industry It's very strange. I think to see this sort of application come in But I mean Blackrock, it's it's obviously they don't come any bigger They don't come kind of any more powerful or better connected. So you've kind of got to you kind of got to assume That they know they know something the rest of us don't they or at least they have a at least they are extremely Confident that their application will be approved or has an extremely good chance of being approved And of course, so yes, so let's work on the assumption that the SEC does Do its its mates of Blackrock a favor and and approve this approve this application That would obviously we'd see a fair bit of inflow I think from that that would obviously be because a spot ETF would be attractive to Institutional and retail investors. I think I think there would be a fairly widespread of people who would be Who would be willing to buy shares in that sort of in that sort of vehicle? And get their crypto exposure that way and you know in a much more regulatory Compliant way in a lot sort of safer way if you like that doesn't involve having to self-custody their crypto or their Bitcoin or anything like that So I think we would see pretty hefty inflows from that and obviously if Blackrock is to be successful Then that would presumably provide a blueprint of sorts for others to follow suit You know, and I think wisdom tree is resubmitted their application I think in Vesco has as well, you know, everyone's kind of this corpse is coming back to life so to speak and So, you know assuming that all kind kind of goes ahead that that would signal some pretty big inflows into into BTC And I can I can see that pumping the price a heck of a lot in the in the short term You know assuming assuming that the SEC doesn't turn around and go no with We still don't like the idea of a spot ETF application Thank you very much and I mean, I should say as well We shouldn't rule that out people obviously getting, you know, the whole industry seems to be getting very excited about this about these applications and We've obviously been here before and I think it's it's worth pointing out that or it's worth remembering that I think if If it doesn't get approved if even Blackrock can't can't get this sort of approval then No one else I think has really got any hope So if it does get turned down then I guess we'll just I guess we're gonna have to rule out the idea of a spot Bitcoin ETF For the foreseeable future really and I think that would that would obviously be I think that you know The the disappointment from that the fallout from the that disappointment would be I think everyone would feel that but Yeah, I think certainly at the moment with this working on this assumption that Blackrock has has some sort of information or Is very confident then yeah, I think certainly Certainly the pump that we've seen off the back of it is is justified How sustainable is it? I think we could yeah I think we could possibly see you know see this last for a couple more weeks, perhaps But it could it could of course become a sell the news event fairly quickly True and of course we have to touch I think you touched on Rob didn't you you touched on Blackrock's incredible track record when it comes to ETF applications was it 500 and 575 to one to one when the losses Yeah, they've so they they kind of know what they're doing I think I think crypto slate put out quite an interesting article about the one that About how they've only had one rejected. I think that was because it wasn't transparent enough And obviously that ties into kind of what the SEC has sort of said about Sit given as reasons for rejecting spot ETFs in the past, and they've said I think it was a lot of it's to do with market manipulation Right, and then saying that lots of PCC trading volume was taking place on kind of unregulated and offshore exchanges and It it seems like Blackrock has has found a way to you know To kind of mitigate these fears that the SEC has which again Suggests that they're pretty confident and that this will get approved Yeah, I gotta tell you I will to say this in all good points great points. It's looking positive. We'll just say that I Personally don't think it's gonna get approved and I'm gonna go against everybody But that's just me because that's how I think but I will tell you one thing that is Amazing to me is that in the last couple of weeks hasn't the narrative changed pretty dramatically Like for example, like this is us on stage at the coin Bureau live event And this was on Saturday and a couple days prior The SEC had come out and sued Coinbase and sued Binance and it was like the worst time of everything and everything was crashing I think you'd see some of the alters were down like 20 30 percent somewhere around there And then just a week and a half later now Everybody's euphoric with the Bitcoin ETF and banks like Deutsche Bank coming out and having self-custody So these things move fast narratives can change, but they are good points what should come back to well Then what do you think do you think that this is wanted you think it's sustainable? And I guess the last question will be do you think this is actually gonna work out for the ETFs? Yeah, so This is probably the best off the best chance that we've had so far yet an ETF I mean, I've kind of been in Rob's camp for a long time of like, you know We've been sitting here for years waiting for these ETFs and and no matter how Optimistic it's ever felt or seemed they've never actually come through At least the spot ETF and so I like and like I definitely share in in like sort of the pessimism from that front I'm also somewhat skeptical because I again, I've I've been out of town. I haven't really been following the news not that I really apologize much anyways, but Like I from what I'm from what I read I think that BlackRock is going to custody their Bitcoin at Coinbase, which is being sued by the SEC So there there are some like things going on like that don't really quite add up to me But hey, I mean again, this is probably the best chance that that Bitcoin has had at this point And I would go to say if it does get rejected, it'll probably They'll probably figure out what steps they need to take to actually get it accepted in the future Rob, I actually just put out a tweet if you could just pull it up Rather than me trying to present my screen it because I want to talk about pre-having years and in terms of the you know, whether it's sustainable or not You know, normally in the in the pre-having years. We don't we don't really go into True mania phases, right? I mean normally it's it's about half up and half down and there's actually an interesting If you if you if you show the year-to-date ROI from 2023 Which is that light blue line and you compare it to the time average year-to-date ROI of 2015 and 2019 It's almost going up exactly At that time average spot. So that's an interesting metric to look at but again and normally in the pre-having years We don't really see You know too crazy price movements. We we stay within a pretty well-defined range And do not deviate And then things don't really pick up more so in the years that follow. I Actually think that the price action right now And maybe people wouldn't agree with this. That's fine But I think the price action right now is is not related to to the ETF stuff I think the price action right now is more so related to a Lot of people trading in their altcoins for Bitcoin. I mean, that's what I think it is We've talked about this forever, right? I mean that the dominance breaking the range high once it does it hesitates for a week and then explodes upward I think that is more so the reason for for the move than Than the ETF. So I'm not saying that there's nothing coming from the ETF side of things But what I am saying is I think this move by I think this move was happening regardless In the Bitcoin dominance side of things and I think it's because people are just trading in their altcoins For Bitcoin whether they're you know, whether they're assigning the narrative to be the ETF Whether they're assigning it to be just low liquidity in the market Whether they're assigning it to be they want to go with Bitcoin over the regulatory risk of the Auckland market I don't know what they're going to assign it to but I think it was going to happen no matter what Yeah, I don't know where I stand on that. Yeah, it's pretty good I mean there's I mean if you think about it like and we talked about this before There's there's a little bit of a synergy between what the SEC was doing when they sued Coinbase and they sued Binance and they Named all these different altcoins. They said these are securities, especially, you know, regular They're doing regulation by enforcement. So with that people would say well Why do I want to be in these securities as American now if you're outside America? I understand, right? So it makes sense that they'd say this is a little bit too risky for me I want to get into Bitcoin maybe a theorem So that would that would stand a point and I think also that the synergistic effect also with the Bitcoin ETF Which makes a ton of sense, but I mean I can see how that Could play out. I just when I take a look at this this ETF and there's just some funny things about it We're one of the few that will probably say that I don't think it's going to be Come through and I've actually actually I met Simon Dixon at at guys event. You don't know Simon Dixon. He's got a great channel He's one of the Bitcoin OGs but Bitcoin at $3 invested in the Coinbase and the 3m ICO and such and so forth but I met him here at at the event and I he says and he's he was responsible for the broker-dealer that was sold to Coinbase and He says look, I know regulation. I know what it is and he goes I'm a hundred percent sure that black rock is going to get this ETF and I bet him I said, okay, I'll bet you that it's not and we have a bet going on right now And if I lose the bet I will I will wear an I heart machine ski shirt and if he loses He has to wear the same thing. So this is one of those bets I will be happy to lose and I will wear that shirt with pride, but I still don't think it's gonna happen All right, so that's on top of that. Let's talk about Bitcoin dominance So I've talked about this a couple of times guy talks about it heavily on his channel Ben mentions it and I will say that it seems to be doing quite well I think we've got 50% let me take a look. There's this website Into the cryptoverse. I don't know if you guys have heard about it But there's a good one for Bitcoin dominance and we're going to see here we can take stable coins and no stable coins Let's include them right now and today 22nd or so we're at forty nine point five three almost 50% I think we actually hit it that at some point if we take out stable coins The Bitcoin dominance level is 55% so the question I have we'll start with Ben because he doesn't talk about it that much What can derail the Bitcoin dominance of what's going on right now? I mean, I I don't think it's gonna be derailed. I Yeah, I mean, I know that's a dangerous thing to say because this is where it does get derailed You know you clip it you clip it and post it on Twitter and Yeah, no, I don't I don't think it's going to be derailed I think that if you think about what happened with the dominance and the trading view the trading view dominance is over 51% right now They don't use all the same things that they may be like, you know coin deck over coin market cap uses They're more maybe a little bit more selective, but I don't think anything is going to be derailing it anytime soon I Think that it's likely going to go up Because I think the issue is that there's so little liquidity in the altcoin market That all it takes is like a one or two percent move by Bitcoin in either direction For you know for the dominance to go up, right? Like it just seems like there's just very very little liquidity So I don't really think anything would derail it I mean even if even if they came out tomorrow and said the at the eat You know the the the BlackRock ETF is rejected. I still don't think it would It would negatively impact the Bitcoin dominance if you look at the dominance chart That you were that you just had that you just had pulled pulled up and you exclude stablecoins and you apply like a Some type of long-term moving average to it like if you go to that moving average up there And do like a 90 day 90 day go down to 90 apply that I mean to me It just looks like we just spent basically two years building out a huge like a large base to bounce off of No It's hard for me to imagine that after such a long consolidation period that any type of single event is going to Derail it. I mean I can probably think of things that that might impact it in the short term like I guess if if if if something happened what happened with the the ripple case and the SEC and it and it went heavily in Ripple's favor then maybe that could slow the dominance down in the short term like I would I would say all right Well in that case that might that might lead to a renewed interest in altcoins in the short term But I also I also go back to this idea that the altcoin market even in the early stages of a bull market We'll likely bleed to Bitcoin. So It's Bitcoin that leads it's not the altcoin market. And so that that's kind of where I stand I don't really think anything is going to derail it at least you know on its on its quest to around 60% So 60% is is is ultimately where I think it's headed and the interesting thing is if you look and I've talked about this a few times if you look at Seasonality with the Bitcoin dominance normally Whatever direction it's going into September it reverses course in September, right? So like if it's going down into September it normally says going up after September That's what happened last year and the year before that, but it's going up into that September time frame. It normally goes down After that for a few months. So like I could see a situation where the dominance goes to say, you know Around 60% plus or minus a few percent, right? It's hard to know exactly by around that September time frame and and then at that point I You know, I could see people calling for you know, 80 or 90% that coin down. So this is where this is where it you know people might lose the plot is When you get into these Bitcoin dominance rallies Whether Bitcoin goes up or down it will it will cause a lot of people to to sort of leave their altcoins, right? And I mean, this is probably something they should have well I mean, I don't know financial that's right But I mean had if you did that eight months ago and you were riding the dominance rally It would have worked out the danger is though You know the longer you wait to do something like that the more you risk of literally like selling your off point at the bottom Right like at its bottom and I'm not talking about the USD pairs because it's a relevant I'm talking about their Bitcoin pairs the longer, you know The longer you wait there's a chance that you end up being that capitulation wick on there on their Bitcoin pairs And so, you know, I think that we could see it the the dominance continue on for a few more months And then after you know after it gets to around 60% I would I would expect it to to show some you know some weakness for a little bit Whether it's 58% or you know 62% I don't know exactly where it's going to stop, but I would imagine it would it would start to show some weakness Maybe in like the latter the latter three months of the year or something or maybe even the first or first couple of months of next year But even in 2024, I wouldn't really be that surprised to see the dominance go on another rally Normally, that's what it does after the having some points the Bitcoin goes on a rally and And the dominance goes up with it So, you know, I don't really think there's anything that's going to derail the dominance rally in the short term I think that what would likely cause it to fade Is basically just everyone finally capitulating and admitting Bitcoin is king But normally once that happens then the altcoin market starts to find You know some renewed strength and I think the heart the hard part to communicate and I feel like I haven't don't always do the best job At communicating this is you know the when I when I talk about the altcoin reckoning all the time It's on their Bitcoin pairs right that's the important metric It's it's how they're performing against Bitcoin because as always right if you're making that choice to go buy an altcoin And you're just watching the Satoshi value of your portfolio go down Week after week after week, then you're doing something wrong And you know if you were to go look at the last time Bitcoin was at 30k the last time Bitcoin was at 30k and you go look at where you're where the altcoins were The last time Bitcoin was at 30k most of them were higher than they are today Most of them are a lot higher than they are today. And that's because why because they get chopped up When Bitcoin goes down they get chopped up Bitcoin goes up and and they just don't they can't capture the bid in the same way That Bitcoin can't you know, they just can't not it not at this phase of the cycle So I mean my my thinking is that nothing is going to derail the Bitcoin dominance rally Right now, but maybe in in two or three months It would it would start to fade All right fair enough. I will just say this I think everybody when when you hear that and you're an altcoin Maximilist it kind of sucks kind of hurts because you're like man I put so much into that but just remember that everybody was watching this video There is an altcoin season at some point Bitcoin doesn't go up forever Dominus doesn't go up to 99% Maybe so just remember that's what it is and I will just say this I remember in 2017 when I got into it I was I mean altcoins were just going crazy and 2018 and 19 I would hear the same thing from the big just the Bitcoin community like look there's dominance coming in This is what happens, but then over time there's an altcoin season I hated them for that and the reason was because I was Bitcoin light So I understand right now if you're Bitcoin light and you're altcoin heavy I get it but you know, these are the things that we have to learn and moving forward So having said all that guy, what do you got for us Bitcoin dominance? I think we're good or you think Ben's crazy I Can I can I submit an application myself? I want to I want to see if I can introduce a new term into crypto when Bitcoin dominance pokes above hits that 50% mark. Can we can we use the term? It's Ben Cowan Looks like this Bitcoin dominance got cowaned. Yeah, that's pretty good. Yeah Sort of on the same topic I was at a I dropped into a into a crypto event in London, I'm still in the UK dropped into a crypto event in in Canary Wharf in London yesterday and It was kind of focused on the UK But I was speaking that I got to chat to a few people afterwards and I chatted to to one guy who who sort of Straight up said, oh by the way, you know, I'm a big big time Bitcoin Maxi and Obviously, you know, we talked about Bitcoin dominance a bit Ben's name came up fairly quickly I swear to God this guy almost made to cross himself when when Ben's name is mentioned Anyhow, yes, so Yeah, I don't really I can't really disagree with with Ben on much there I think yeah, I think dominance could could well be headed towards 60% The way things are going I think the only bitcoins only competitor for market cap You know, I think it's I think it's important to draw a slight distinction here between altcoins and then ETH and stablecoins Yeah, all that competition for market cap is is going to come from ETH and stables so I Think possibly the only thing that could put the brakes on Bitcoin dominance would be some regulatory clarity in the US and Elsewhere but particularly in the US Around ETH and stablecoins that could that I think would would certainly see some inflows in into both But I mean, what are the chances of that happening anytime soon pretty slim So I just you know, I'm just I'm just putting it out there to sort of You know for the sake of argument I think I think if I think if black rocks ETF application was to get rejected that might slow it a bit But again, I'm kind of with Ben as well. I think Bitcoin dominance really is kind of unstoppable at the moment But Yeah, I'm when that will change. I'm not sure but as you say Rob, you know ETH all season does Does eventually come around but it really is just all Bitcoin at the moment, isn't it? And as you say, that's I think that's something people really need to be aware of Exactly, and then look it's all it's all you look at it It's if you think that All coins is around the corner and Bitcoin dominance is going up and your alters are going down Well, this is a buying opportunity for you not financial advice But you have to look at it like that if you really believe in the project you know your research go go forward like that then so I'm gonna say I just wanted to say something because I yeah I mean guys said something that I think is really important And and that's you know, I don't actually can and I've said this many times But if you don't if you if people don't listen to like to my videos a man I know like I I don't really consider a theorem at all coin. I think that there's Bitcoin There's a theory and then you basically have everything else I mean you can separate the alcoone market and the stable coin market But I don't really put a theory in the class of all coins But I also don't really put it in the same class of big as Bitcoin either I do think it's a blue chip with Bitcoin actually I think Bitcoin and Ethereum are both which you can even look at the Ethereum dominance and see that what guy said What and I think you pulled it up, Rob I mean guy, I mean, you know the Ethereum dominance has also been going up, right? It's just that the Bitcoin dominance has been going up faster. Yeah Exactly and it's going pretty good and that that's why there's there's this new exchange that's that was just put out by Citadel Schwab and Fidelity and you can see the ones that are being listed are going to be Bitcoin Bitcoin cash Litecoin and Ethereum so when you take a look at those things you're like, well, why they do that? Well, those the safest plays and what the SEC may not or may not consider a Security so anyhow, okay, so we're all all with there Let's move to a little bit of macro before we get to the big question For me is when all it's Powell so the Powell pause the Powell skip just came up And I know Ben you and and get a solid way really broke this down pretty well in that video It's why I'm encouraging people to take a listen, but Let me start with with guy in this one The Powell pause is this enough for America because I know like when I was over in Europe I saw inflation But the small business owners and the people that I talked to said no, no, it's it's much better now There's there's things going on pretty well. So yes, I know it's an America. It's different But things are going a little bit better here if we take a look at inflation things are going down So guy, I mean just being over there. Do you see that what Powell did is enough and then what do we go from here? I think Yeah, I it seemed like it seemed like a pause was was probably Probably the right thing to do at the moment. I guess it's it I guess it's a kind of wait-and-see approach that the Fed are adopting at the moment. I mean they Jerome is is always pointing out isn't he that they're that they're watching the data and I guess but but something else that he pointed out in that in that press conference after the After they paused or skipped or whatever you want to call it He did say that core inflation is still the one to watch Obviously headline inflation it does seem to be coming down at a pretty, you know pretty decent clip And I guess in a way That's what that's what most people look like and I guess that that that headline inflation figure is is important In managing kind of inflation expectations, and I guess if people in the white, you know people in the wider economy Have the have the impression that inflation is going down Then they will they will act accordingly and you know, hopefully that should mean the prices don't climb up too much and and expectations can be can be kind of managed but As Jerome said core inflation is still pretty sticky. It's still stuck around. I think it's five point three percent and You know that that has to that has to show some some positive signs of Going down I think before, you know, certainly before any idea of rate cuts can be considered And I don't think we'll see any of those this year No, so I think probably it does sound like whilst core inflation is still stuck I think they probably will want to You know do go with those go with those two subsequent hikes. That's what the dot plot seems to Seems to indicate that that's what most Fed members Seem to seem to think as well So, yeah, I think but again, we've got to we've got to wait for more of that data We've got to see if what what happens with unemployment as well, of course But I think that core inflation figure is is the really important one and until until that's Firmly on its way down I'm not sure that you can really say that the Fed has done enough if they're if they're targeting 2% Which is which is what they keep saying every single time So I think there is still work to do on that front Yeah, and that's why like I pulled up that that true flation Data point and what they do is they're they just they use Data from like 10,000 different sources they use chain link as an oracle to pull in data in real time So it's just something to take a look at if people don't trust the data that's being given by the governments Maybe there's another way to do it true flation There's a link in the website and then for Ben same question I know you guys you and Gareth went over this pretty much in detail Do you think this is enough or do you think that they should actually keep hammering it like they didn't What like they made the mistake in the 70s? Yeah, I know so it's a good question. Um, I think that I mean so first of all It's not just about ray hikes, right? It's also about how long they hold them there That's what they said higher for longer, right? So it's it's also a function of time I mean if you only go if you go to five and a half percent and then you're only there for a month Then you come back down That's not really going to accomplish much if you go to five and a half percent and you stay there for a year that I mean that will start to you to have an effect So I mean I I think it's certainly possible. They do another 25 basis point rate hike I mean, maybe they maybe they feel like they need to go further than that But I also think there is some credibility to the idea that They have gone as far as they need to they just need to they need to hold them there, right? I mean again like they probably will hike again I mean, I think the bond market is I haven't even looked I'm pretty sure the bond market is pricing in another hike in July So I would I would I would typically just defer to to those investors because they they tend to get it right when Especially going into the meeting. They'll usually know and you can even argue the Fed just follows what the market says are going to do But yeah, I mean I yeah, so you have it right there about a 74 percent chance of another rate hike I think the hard part is not so much the rate hikes It's just how long do they have the courage to hold them? You know at these higher levels, you know, can they can they do it for for the next? I mean as guy said hold them here for the entire year. I think they will I think they they probably will not be cutting this year Based on things that Powell has said if if they do cut this year then that kind of throws everything he said out the window I mean, he's even he's even alluded to the idea of no rate cuts for two years. I think so If he if he cuts them in the next six months, and that really goes against like really everything that he's been saying So I think they it's not it's not just about the rate hikes It's also about They need to hold them at these higher levels for a long period of time for it to have a lasting impact And then also to there's also the QT, right? Like they're they're Reducing their size of their balance sheet. That's you know, that's going to have some effect and you also have you know You also have things like the you know, the money supply in general is is The percentage change you over year is negative and that's going to be a deflationary Tailwind I'm I mean, I'm not saying that we see deflation But you know if the money supply is going down that is if it if it goes down forever, right? Then it would be deflationary. So that's the other thing To keep it on as well. So I think there's a lot of variables I do think in terms of interest rate hikes I think they're really close to the terminal rate and it's more so they just need to hold them there for probably a year and and and if they do that then I think they probably will we will see inflation closer to their target Let's hope so I think it's gonna get sticky I think they're gonna be maybe like I think Garrett talked about this Maybe three percent they get stuck there for a while and then hopefully goes on the two percent But I mean that's up to them We'll see it all works out our job though as investors to figure out what comes next what comes next for me is when alts So well as we answer this I'll start with Ben if you got got questions put those in the comment section I'll pull those up as much as possible and Ben when alts because like we talked about there is an all coin season right around the bend, right? I'm even have on your website. So all coin season. When does this happen? Is it ever gonna happen? What's your thoughts? Um So I would I would say that When you when you think about all season We always have to like Quantify exactly what that even means right like if you go back and look at at 2018 We came out of Bitcoin season But it wasn't into all season It was more so just everything was going down But at Bitcoin started to go down quicker than the all-coin market and that and that marks the you know the end I Think that for me, I've had several different Sort of like it's like if then statements, right? So like the first one the first if then statement was or not maybe if then statement But first of all it was December 2022 at the earliest, right? So like at the absolute earliest December 2022 is when I was going to be interested in the all-coin market That was number one So that was when I first started to consider them I didn't I didn't really consider them in Q3 because I'm like well I think I think Bitcoin's gonna you know collapse at the end of the year like it always does in these bear market years but then it was well The dominance is still too low to justify all-coin accumulation for me, right? Like like I can't like you know Rob talks about it forever and he's in my head about it Like I'm just like okay. Well, you know, we got to see the the dominance at a much higher level Um, so sort of the secondary the secondary Aspect of it was I want to see so December 2022 at the earliest Then I need to see the dominance above or around 60% And we're not there yet, right now That's not to say that some all-coins haven't bottomed on their usd pairs and not saying that that I think it's a lot of them Probably haven't And and just what a couple weeks ago a lot of these all coins were putting in new lows You know a lot of people are giving me a hard time for it But you know, we had Cardano avalanche chain link and polka dot all put in new lows this cycle legitimately like two weeks So it really does go to show you how all coins can put in new lows in the pre-having years and even Potentially the early stages of the having year even if Bitcoin isn't right I mean an imagine if imagine if Bitcoin goes back down to like 20k or 15k What do you think happens to the all-coin market in that in that in that scenario? Considering that many of them are already putting in new lows. So, you know, my thinking is Bitcoin is is going to be the much safer play if for every dollar you want to put in a crypto I think that Bitcoin is the safer play Until the dominance is around 60% now Historically what I would say that we're in right now is more is more so similar to the pen ultimate stage of the all-coin reckoning So I've talked about the all-coin reckoning for the last 18 months. It's where all coins get wrecked on their Bitcoin pairs I think we're in the pen ultimate stage of the all-coin reckoning, which is the second to last, right? So I think there's one more stage after this one And I think it's probably gonna be finalized this year But a large part of a large part of the phase that we're in right now is is just the Bitcoin dominance rally And and that I think needs to last for a couple more months So if we just fast-forward in our mind, let's say July August Let's say dominance is approaching 60% by August or September Then what I'm looking for is is sort of the secondary scare on Bitcoin that we always get and that is where I think it Would be time to get into the all-coin market if you're not familiar with that It's more so this idea that you know Bitcoin finds its its first bottom You know sometime in its main primary bear market year right 2014 2018 2022 But then in 2015 we had a double bottom on Bitcoin in August and Q3 and in 2020 We had a higher low in March And it was also after the un-inversion of the yield curve as well I mean again, you might call the box one But I would say well the yield curve it tells you if the economy is sick or not and can handle a bad event And if once you get the un-inversion of it It tells you the economy is really sick and anything can tip us into a recession So that is what I would be looking towards Because by that point you'll have your bear market right here your 2022 bear market You'll have the the dominance rally by Bitcoin and and then you'll have your secondary scare That we normally see with Bitcoin before you know before you get out into say like late 2024 or 2025 time frame So that's what I'm ultimately looking for Does it happen doesn't have to happen? No, I mean it doesn't have to happen But you know in terms of taking on the risk of the all-coin market I would really like to see see some of these things play out And I think at the very least you want to see the dominance of Bitcoin around 60% and Rob The funny thing is is you know a lot of people You know, they don't really like the dominance metric because Or they you know, they they say it's irrelevant, especially the people that won all season but the funny thing is is that if you're if you're actually knowledgeable about how you that chart that you were showing earlier It's it's only after high dominance that all season really takes off right You know all season occurs from 60 or 70 percent Bitcoin dominance because it has so much room to go down When dominance is at 40 percent, you know the likelihood of it going to 20 or 30 percent to support to support an all season is really really low But when dominance is at say 60 percent or 70 percent, and I know I don't even I'm not even saying I don't I'm not really that optimistic about it Reaching 70 percent it could but I think 60 percent should be the main target But it's from it's from those levels that you can actually get the all season that everyone wants right So maybe by that time everyone will love Bitcoin dominance because it'll it'll be implying in all season But when it's you know when it's going up and it's in you know It's it's been spending two years to trying to break these range these range highs the the minute it breaks I think you just have to let it rally for a few months You come back and you see just see which all coins are surviving and still are still here And again, they're USD pairs are relevant a lot of a lot of the all coins They just die out during during the space of the cycle, right? They just they go away You don't you just have to you just have to be patient wait to see which ones survive and And at some point they they bottom out against Bitcoin but a lot of them a lot of all coins are Oscillators at best against Bitcoin at best and they're still well off their their their range lows So I still think a lot of all coins still need to drop probably 34% against Bitcoin Well, I hope you're right because that will be a fantastic buying opportunity for some of us And then before I before I move on a guy, is there a way to do some like a Bitcoin dominance overlay on this chart? Um, probably not this one if you go to the workbench, um, you could probably you could probably figure it out, but I Yeah, yeah, we was here at another time. That was just a selfish, uh question for me. All right guy What do you think here? Altcoin season when alts went for you know what here's the question I have for you right now is Are you buying alts at all? Are you just staying away from or you're buying anything? Because I know you like keep things simple because you're smarter than me. So How does that work out? Um, I I'm certainly keeping things simple. I mean, I've got my my inner Ben Cowan is Is very loud at the moment. So he's he's guiding me a lot. No, um Yeah, I in terms of in terms of what ben was talking about I don't you know I there's nothing there's nothing I can really disagree with him on there. Um All I would add in terms of what I would like to see I think is kind of An improvement in the narrative around crypto It around crypto itself. Um, I think that would that would for me Probably be a sign that perhaps altcoins could be about to could be about to have their have their moment but I mean that that would That requires quite a lot that requires things like positive noises from the sec for example and Right again, that's not something you would want to hold your breath on For any length of time So, yeah, you know, if you want the rainbow, you've got to put up with the rain And I think it's going to be it's going to be raining in that sense for for quite a long time You know the rain in this case, I guess being um being bitcoin dominance as ben says, um I think there are things to I think there are other things to look out for, you know, obviously I've mentioned the sec. I think it's it'll be worth keeping an eye on developments elsewhere I think Hong Kong especially it'll be it'll be interesting to see what What kind of altcoins become available available to retail investors there? um Obviously, that's you know, first of june was when that was sort of Legalized as it were in Hong Kong this retail crypto trading. But of course as we now know We're going to have to wait quite a while For exchanges there to actually get registered and actually be able to offer uh, any sort of any sort of crypto um So, yeah, I mean that could that could perhaps tie in with when bitcoin dominance is is starting to peak and uh, and all and Hopefully as I'd say the uh, the just the narrative around crypto has has improved, you know, it's not good There's not so much negativity around the start. We're starting to see um Clear regulations in in at least a few more countries that I think would be the time to start getting interested again Gotcha. Yeah, I gotta agree with you on that one. Uh, I will just say that's you know, during this time There's so many ways there's so many different ways to play it for you know, what people want to do I know a lot a lot of people will say or some people say look If the dom's is going to go up bitcoin's going to go up I'm just going to put everything in a bitcoin wait for it to go all the way up And then once all coins season comes and I'll switch everything over I'll sell some bitcoin and I'll put it into alts You can do that, but for me, it's a bit more it's it's tougher for me to do those things That's why I'm I am a little bit different than other people And I think there's there's just a wide swath of people what they want to do I will say this if you're looking for A little information about what things would look like in the past. There's a great website It's called dca dash cc.com And I link this in the description. I put it in the chat right now And what you can do is you can you can take any coin that you So choose and just take a look at the data bitcoin Ethereum I think it's all the way down to the top 20 the chain link and you can say when you're going to start DCing when it goes to and taking a look at the past And how much you want to do and it'll tell you what your return on investment is Historically and I took a look at that and we talked about this in the channel And again, like it's all how you want to do it Ben's right in about the safest plays bitcoin And he's it's true historically it really has been but then there's some of your gamblers out There are some dj ends like you know what I just want to gamble a little bit. Whether that be a hundred percent Which is not a good idea or what it's a little bit a bit less Maybe it's a 75 25 split But again, like you can you can see this on dc8 or cc and I did these these charts If you just historically the last cycle if you went started on 2018 on january 1st And you put a hundred dollars in every week You would have 7x to the top in 2019 if you would have started on 2019 january 1st, you would have six and a half x 2020 would have a 4x and if you would have gotten the bull run It's 1.5x the same thing with ethereum If you did ethereum in 2018 to the top you 16x in 2019, which is a pretty better year And don't do what I do, which is the best in 2018. You would have 17x 2021 x 2021 just a 2x so as we get closer to the bull run And you get into these these alts The return investment does go down a cardano 35x 2018 2019 and 39x 2020 26x and a 3x and just real quick just remember and ben said it Or maybe this guy said that not all these alts are coming back Some of them are just gonna suck and you're gonna lose out And I always say it's a dash of salt who would have gotten a dash in 2018 But it's been a junkie 3x for four years or salt You would still be underwater. So just remember that moving forward And that's where a little bit things like we disagree on some stuff and that's okay You can do whatever you want to do but that concludes us talking Let's take some questions gentlemen All right, then we'll get out of here because ben's got a vacation to hit up Let's see this one was from My group And there was two questions The first one was from Noah next one's from jh and says do they do they which would be been a guy Do you believe in the bricks movement with an adopter of cryptocurrency? And then jh asks If you guys could ask ben or guy any question mark it What was the when was your I get it moment with bitcoin? So we'll start with the first one here The bricks movement guy, what do you think about that? Is it going to take hold and is the Bitcoin gonna not take over or are they just gonna use everything as far as that currency? Yeah, it's interesting one the bricks one. I mean we've already seen sort of some countries Russia in particular sort of start talking more about using bitcoin for trade, haven't they and obviously that's because Well, they're under sanctions Right first and foremost But I think it could be I think it could become a narrative with bricks because not so much perhaps the bricks countries using it necessarily all themselves, but I really think if we keep going in this direction of of having a Bipolar or or a multipolar world where you know, there are these competing spheres of influence and a lot of tension between them And you have this situation whereby no one wants to use the currency of you know No one wants to use a rival currency And that's obviously a lot of the impetus behind countries moving away from the dollar at the moment Then I can see I can see a situation whereby something like BTC becomes that really useful medium for for people kind of caught between those polls To actually do you know to actually get things done to actually move money across borders to facilitate international trade when you know when I think Countries and spheres of influence are likely going to become a lot more protectionist Towards their own currencies. So I can see I can see something like that Happening. I'm not sure bricks themselves. I mean, I think we'd certainly see crypto adoption In bricks countries, especially if the US's attitude to crypto was was still very hostile I think I think they would certainly look to take advantage of that situation whether or not they'll actually, you know, adopt it as a Adopt crypto in some form as something between themselves. I'm not so sure Got it. I could go with that. And then what was your aha? What was your aha moment for bitcoin because you've been in for a long time Yeah, I think I think the first moment that I really It was when I read back. It was so I discovered, you know, I was sort of starting to read up on it in read up on bitcoin in 2013 and 2014 and then I stumbled across an article An interview in I can't remember which paper it was but an interview that had been conducted in 2011 and they republished it Well, they talked to alistair darling who was the chancellor of the exchequer the uk chancellor of the exchequer in 2008 and He was talking about How close they came to running out of money how close we got within hours apparently of cash machines No longer dispensing cash in the uk And like for me that and that was just like that was that moment. It was like wow they They've really mismanaged this. It's such a you know, we came so close to what would have been complete anarchy I think um, certainly for, you know a a period of time um And for me and and that was a that was a moment for me Where I was like, yes, we do this this idea of something that is that is controlled that isn't just printed into oblivion That isn't in the hands of of bankers and and you know other corrupt entities like that You know that that for me was a great kind of Argument for bitcoin if you like I can see that that's what kind of led me to as well Ben, what do you got? bricks and bitcoin aha moment I mean with the bricks, honestly, I have no idea. Um, if they're gonna adopt crypto is I mean they could Yeah, I have no idea. Um, so I'll defer I'll defer to your guys's opinion on that. Um, yeah, I think uh Crypto is a crypto in general is interesting thing because I was I my undergrad was in math and I took an elective back in 2011 on cryptography and um, that was actually when I when I first learned about bitcoin um But I I wouldn't you know, I certainly wouldn't say that that was my aha moment, right? Like it was just sort of like an acknowledgement that it existed um, I don't really think I I had the aha moment until maybe I mean Maybe like five or six years after that when I thought it had more staying power, you know I mean, I think because I'm very I think I'm more very I'm very much on the idea of like The market will decide, you know, how important this technology is or not and in in 2015 um It was kind of depressing. I mean you look at a chart now and in 2015 was just sort of this base year to a massive bull market, right? But when you were living through 2015 And you know, you came out of 2014 where bitcoin dropped like 90 percent And then and then it went up and then it dropped, you know back down to the lows Or almost a higher low and then it went up again. And then in august 2015 it dropped back down to the low again um I was I was pretty pretty discouraged But then I probably in the early stages of 2016 is is more so when I recognize and it did have more more staying power um and um Because I mean again, I like the idea. Of course. I like the idea of of You know of of distributed distributed ledger technology and and you know Having a cap on the supply not just being able to print it to oblivion Especially what you know what the fed has been doing recently But even even with all that It doesn't necessarily mean it has value if the market decides it has values and it will and so I I think probably by the You know by the third You know by the by the 2016 bull market It was more more obvious because I mean there are things in the world that that are Again that have low supply, but that doesn't necessarily mean they are intrinsically valuable, right? It's just you know that the market will ultimately decide and you can go create a copy of bitcoin right now But it doesn't in the exact same thing, right? It doesn't mean it's going to be valuable because the market probably won't decide that it is right It's bitcoin. It's the one that was first and it's been around the longest most trusted So I'd say it's probably about my guess 2016 or so Yeah, I could see that. Yeah, it's the same thing kind of like with me First of all the bricks nations. I mean look as far as like a world reserve currency The u.s. Dollar Unfortunately, we are the we're the thinnest fat person I guess you would say we are the best option of the worst options as far as world reserve currency I'm not for sure how much the world reserve currency will go down. Janet Yellen thinks it will but who knows And as far as like the bitcoin aha moment People already already know the story about that But the thing that I saw is because I didn't I mean, I'm not wasn't really invested into what's happening with like The the the economics and inflation and and money printing and quantity to be using I didn't know all that stuff until I got into crypto Then when I figured it out about inflation and the m2 money supply. I'm like holy smokes That's that's uh, there's there's no way with this is sustainable And then we took a look at you know, what is money? I'd say it's a store of value in a medium up exchange I took a look at all the different countries like the greeks or the greece and Venezuela and the things that were getting inflated all the way out of the out of the world I thought to myself there's no way this can be sustainable So it has to be a better option and you can opt out with bitcoin. It's the only one that we have So I learned when I got away from the number go up part and I figured out the other part about money and Sort of value and medium exchange. I go this is a much better option. So that was my thing Having said that let's take another question. This is from From telegram So this is going to be hard to see unfortunately, but I'll just read them out. See this is ben's telegram group Uh, pretty good information on there and if you get into the website you pretty much get access to this But there's two types And here's what we got. So let's see Oh Here's a question from r saying do etf applicants Buy bitcoin before they apply or after it's approved Futures, they don't buy anything and with spot etfs. They have to buy bitcoin But they have to have it approved first unless I'm unaware of this one. What do you guys have an answer for this one? I must say I really don't know that's that's something that did cross my mind recently as well You know, they get the approval. Do they then go and Buy a certain amount of btc sort of on spec and just kind of top it up as as and when I really don't know I'd be very interested to know the answer to that myself Now I think maybe I have to have to wait for approval, but yeah, it could be wrong Uh, here's one. This one would go back to the ben and gear of soloway. Can you look at credit card balances? There's a theory that credit card balances spiked in 2022 My low introductory rates on those cards expire. This could trigger recession thoughts on this Ben I mean my general opinion. I mean, look But what will the stock market climbs the wall? There's so many things we can worry about, right? There's student loans or there's credit card debt there's There's everything right the I think the only thing that really matters is when the labor market goes I think everything I think most everything else is like i'm not saying these other things can't have effects Like they can for sure, but there's so many there's like a hundred different things to worry about who knows what it's actually going to be um Normally, it's not until the labor market Finally gives way that you know that the market will actually start to care unless it's like just some unless it's like a pandemic Right, like if it's a pandemic, then okay fine like that that will of course create panic If it's something we've never really experienced before it's been a hundred years since we last experienced it Like that could of course Calls issues, but normally it's the labor market. I think the labor market is the thing to look at by the way I don't even know we I guess we got Initial claims we got a a new number today in fact and it was at 264 thousand which um Is now now we have three data points in the uh in the 260s So look, I mean I think if it gets into the 300s and the 400s like that's going to be a pretty bad sign But the fact that it's moved from the 240s up to the 260s and it's now the third week in a row at the 260s It is showing that the labor market is it is softening up I mean again 260 isn't really that much to worry about in the grand scheme of things But it shows you the trend is heading in the wrong direction and you're talking about the initial jobless claims Uh initial claims like if you if you look at it, they it comes out every every thursday morning All right And and it's basically just been slowly moving up But the the reason why it's important is because it is a leading indicator for the unemployment rate And it it starts to go up Maybe about half a year before the unemployment rate does and initial claims bottomed out About if you if you actually it rob if you just quickly click on the workbench at the top Of the website and I can show you do you see what i'm saying it's next to yeah And then there's a there's a do you see the unemployment rate versus claims to the left just to the left fourth one down That one click on that one and you can kind of see it'll show initial claims continued claims the unemployment rate and recessions And and you can see how How the the initial claims which is the green line is really starting to move up and normally it leads the unemployment rate So I think that is is is sort of the that's probably the bigger thing to worry about I mean there's a thousand different things we can worry about right, you know But that's the labor market's probably the main thing to worry about Well, there we go All right, so initial claims are up, but I mean I know we don't want to hear this but this could actually be a positive thing for the fed to go Okay, our job is being done. Maybe we don't have to hike so much and go from there. All right. I'll take a couple more questions from From folks in the chat and we'll go from there And we'll get out of here Let's just do this one best performer for next run. This is for fun Let's just leave out of here with a little bit of hopeium and get out of here What do you guys think is the best performer for the next run the ones that not the safest But let's just say the crazy blow-off hundred thousand x I could see ben sweating already I You're not gonna weasel an altcoin out of me right now The only thing I'll say is that normally normally ethereum outperforms bitcoin from like from bottom to top So because the only two i've really talked about are those two I would say that it's likely that ethereum will outperform bitcoin again from from the actual bottom to the actual top But I also think that bitcoin will hit its all-time high before ethereum will Again last cycle when bitcoin was at an all-time high when bitcoin hit 20k ethereum was at like 700 dollars like six or 700 It was like half of its all-time high. I think you'll see the same thing happen again I mean you could see bitcoin One day at 70 k and ethereum might still be hanging out at $2,500 as crazy as that sounds And it doesn't mean that ethereum won't break its all-time high It's just normally bitcoin leads the bull run and then everything else follows So ethereum will probably outperform bitcoin from not on top, but bitcoin will likely outperform bitcoin Or so bitcoin will likely outform ethereum In the initial phase the bull run Good enough. I got ben to talk about something a blue chip good good deal guy. What do you got? What's I mean? What do you think? um No, um, I'm just I yeah, I I've no idea. I'm afraid I what I do think though Is probably the thing that will surprise us more that will really shock everyone and have some obviously face melting gains It just doesn't exist yet It'll be true. It'll be one of these it'll be one of these brand new projects that is being incubated at the moment Is bubbling under we don't really know anything about it and it will It will emerge at probably just the right moment and and it will go it'll go crazy um So again, like I've sort of I I've sort of avoided naming any particular Any particular one apart from you know in order in order to not be uh Not be proved wrong in the future But I do I do honestly believe that it probably isn't one that anyone knows about just yet and failing that Maybe it'll be pepe. Who knows It'll be pepe. All right, everybody. Let's let's get out of here I want to say this diversify diversify diversify follow the rules Right to ben's left or underneath ben and to the left of guy. It's all gone Don't don't spend more you can afford to lose everything's a scam until proven otherwise Don't leave any non exchanges. Don't take any leverage and take profits along the way. Nobody ever went broke taking profits Gentlemen, thank you so much for stopping by. I appreciate it. And of course you watching. We will see you guys on the next one See you