 Hello Traders at CMC Markets. This is Trevor Neal, Research Director at Relative Rotation Graphs. I'm recording this on the morning of Friday the 28th of July. The markets have been very volatile since the US Fed Reserve Rate Announcement and we can see that here particularly in the daily sampling of the Relative Rotation Graphs. Look at this now how it's changed. Here we've got the NASDAQ, actually in the weakening quadrant and heading towards the lagging quadrant. We've got the Russell 2000 has swept around and it's further to the right versus the MSCI World Index. The Dow is coming up, the Australian Index is coming up, the DAX is coming up, but up on the top here, sorry it's gone off the top, is the FTSE, the DRL FTSE and that has been such an underperformer is coming around rapidly through the improving quadrant, long tail to it here, it's moving very strongly through and heading, it does look as though it's heading towards the leading quadrant. This is not the picture in the longer term perspective, this is a short term, maybe a bounce we'll have a look at the chart in a moment, but it's a big difference. Previously we had the European indices moving down in this area here and the US led by the NASDAQ leading the way here with the Dow following behind and also the Russell, but the NASDAQ and the S&P leading the way and the NASDAQ strongly leading the way. Now we've got PS&P close to the middle, close to the average, not operating any particular outperformance over stock markets in general. So let's delve a little bit into this, we'll start with what's the situation in the S&P and then we're going to move on also into the currencies later on. Now the S&P, very volatile session, pushing up, making a new recent high, get him to the round number of 4,600 and then reversing very sharply and finishing weak. What we do see is that this resistance here, which is closer hand, bringing us in here, now came from the high of March in 2022, March 2022 high. So we were stretching forward towards it and the market has rejected very strongly yesterday. There was a bit of a warning from the MACD here with the bearish divergence, but more particularly in the RSI where we've got a clear bearish divergence warning. And how does this leave us? And this is a big outside day being bearish engulfing candle here. Assuming if we get follow-through on it today, then we should be heading to support 4,440 from these two highs in here. So it looks as though we have got a temporary talk in place. We saw that on the ROG that we saw the bearish divergence developing here. And here we have this very volatile, a big fall is likely down to the 4,4 level. Of course, if we break through the high here, 4,620, that sort of high there, then we're heading towards that March 2022 resistance up in there. But it does look as though this has come to an abrupt halt for the moment. Now moving to a daily chart in the NASDAQ, we got a bearish engulfing candle here too. I hesitated because bearish engulfing should end a trend. It was actually rather flat in front of it, but we did gap higher, completely covered the body of the last two candles and we finished below the bodies of both those candles. So it's technically a bearish engulfing candle, which is talking candle, but not a brilliantly formed one. It is also below the high here. And so it's not actually the high like it was on the S&P of 15,900. Now we've had we already had a crossover in the MACD. The trend had started to move down before that happened. And then also the RSI too has moved down back down to the 50 area correcting the moon. The above us, these two lines here, they're from the 2021 highs. Bring that in here. They're 2021 November, December highs, the up in there. So this one was at 16,700. And this one here was at 16,600. So we were stretching close to those. Unlike the S&P, which does look vulnerable to dropping quite hard. I think this one is quite well supported, quite close by. And we've definitely got a very strong uptrend in place here. And so the support in this case comes in at 15,200. And that would correct an overbought condition. And I think it should be well supported around there. And this one looks as though the dominance that it's maintained is going to assert itself again. And the one that will suffer is the actual S&P. So watch for the support at 15,300. If we were to return above the high of yesterday's candle at 15,800, then I think we're on our way to take this high out at 15,900 and then back to those 2021 highs in above 16,000 there. This trend is very firmly intact. And we're approaching a support point which is close. And each time we've come to a previous high in this journey up, we've held at it and we pushed on for it in a regular zigzagging pattern. So I think that's how it is at the moment. If we were to break down through the 15,000 level, and in particular, if we were to break down through the 14,900 level, then we have broken the pattern of rising lows and the trend is over for the moment. At the moment, it's heading towards support. Support is close. It looks strong. It looks like a correct to move. And the overall trend should resume. This is the daily chart of the fan plus stocks, the relative rotation graph of them. These are the top 10 tech stocks. Now, starting with Tesla, we called that really well. We warned about how vulnerable in Luton, the bearish divergence we were seeing there. And actually the very next day, after I said that, the price gap to lower and look where it's headed now. It's on the verge of moving into, can you believe it, the lagging quarter. That's versus the S&P. Previously, everything was on the right. Everything was doing better. All the techs were doing better than the S&P. That's not the case now. And the direction of the ones which are doing better, Nvidia and Meta, is actually in the southwestern direction and losing a lot of power, long tails here, moving quite quickly in that respect. So let's have a little look at a couple of these, in particular the Tesla, and to pass ourselves on the map there, and then also the Nvidia. Here is a daily chart of Tesla, and we have seen this high, high and high, but the erosion of momentum, very stark warning of potential topping place. We got the topic down. We've consolidated and now we've had another week session threatening to break the last week's low, this week's low, sorry, excuse me, down at 252. It breaks that, and I think we're headed down to this low. Here, we should 242. If we break 242, then we could easily go down very fast here because this move up was very swift. Indeed, from around the 175 level up to the really zoomed up to 280. There without interruption. To all that means, there's little support on the way down. So if this turns out to be a bigger top than the one we've seen already, then I think that the torque here could be swift with very little support. The MACD is, of course, negative. The gap is widening here, so the momentum coming in on the downside. And we have seen a bearish divergence, a very typical behavior at intermediate tops. Here's the line I drew in the last time here, warning of the bearish divergence. And here we have it. Now the market, the RSI is looking weak. And it is looking, I must say, Tesla is looking vulnerable. And it's at some key levels, the particular one that could initiate severe selling is breaking the 241-240 level. Now, you remember from the relative rotation graph that the NVIDIA is still the furthest to the right of the direction of travel or south-west, I think. So we're losing some momentum. We see that in the MACD here with this bearish divergence in place, high, high, high. And here, the MACD itself is currently negative, although the price action is still moving up towards the highs, actually. The RSI is coming up from having corrected to the 50% level and moving up again. This one, the lows are very much intact and we're moving off the lows. It looks like it's holding this last higher low at 441, which was at the high here. Let me just draw that in because now support line, there it is, a real beauty, where we pull back to the previous high, which is support. This chart does look as though it's still intact. It's a bull market, it's lost some momentum. It hasn't got the toppy formation that we saw in Tesla hit for the moment. I think it's still going to continue holding its place as the star stock of the group and it isn't over yet for this one. Watch out for breaks of the high. Of course, if we break through the student spike here, 441, that would trigger probably another impulse move like that one there and that one there as we make new highs. Just looking at the rented performance of currencies in a different way. This is the year to date change in currencies. The first, the top one of the big currencies is the Swiss franc, then the pound. So that's had the biggest rise to date, nearly 6% rise. And we come to the euro. The euro is up two and a half percent on the year, then Canadian dollar up 2.4%. Then we come down to the Japanese yen, which is down 6%. And that's the the worst performing of the majors were suppose the Nigerian Naira and surprisingly, got the Turkish lira in there and the Russian ruble as well. But it's interesting that the top performing currency this year has been really Swiss franc and the pound. Moving now to the currencies, we've had a strong bounce from from the dollar. And here you see the the major currencies sweeping the long tails in from the leading quadrant, all of them in the weakening quadrant. So they're all weakening. There's a daily sampling of it led by the best performing British British pound there. But closely followed by the euro and and the yen to all swinging swiftly around. So let's have a look at that in a bit more detail. Now, the euro has fallen away sharply on that dollar bounce, as you would expect, of course, and broken some really significant what should have been powerful support levels. The one 1090 level, it hesitated for a moment but broke that. Then the next level, which could have held at would would was the one 10, one 10 level itself. But it's punched through that hard and it's heading towards the one oh eight 30 level, which was established back here in the beginning of July. It's a range. It should be supportive and it certainly would be catastrophic if we broke that level, because that is the last rising low to define the this sort of longer term uptrend. But with the short term, we've got a lot of power in this move downwards. Look at the RSI. It's falling away very sharply indeed. And the MACD has crossed over and his gap is widening here, increasing momentum on the downside. So it's going into a support level, which is quite strong, but it's doing it with a great deal of momentum. So it's got some power and it's really got its eyes on this one oh eight 30 level. So watch out here on the euro for further losses. And finally, cable. Yeah, it's going down as well, but it's a kind of a better picture. We're just at this previous resistance levels at one twenty eight thirty. That's giving way now. That's bad news, but we're coming to much stronger and more important support at one twenty six seventy and the crucial, the defining low of one twenty five ninety. It's got some momentum behind it here. Look at the gap widening on the MACD. And then on the RSI, it's going down and it's still pointing downwards. It's it looks as though it's going to go low. However, overall, this chart looks better in better shape than the euro and has got more has got support levels that are still in intact, good support levels that can hold us. Watch in particular for the one twenty seven level and also the this crucial level of one twenty six twenty one twenty five eighty. If we were to break the one thirty level, I think that we're on our way up again and we would be continuing this pattern of impulse reaction. But that's somewhat given what happened yesterday, looking quite remote possibility in the short term, but it depends how if it can manage to stabilize at this round here, all probably a little bit lower around closer to the one twenty seven level and stabilize in there and then reassert the rising lows pattern. But that's sinking too far ahead at the moment in the short term. It looks as though it's going to go down into the support. So we'll see how it anchors itself in there. That's it for today. Thank you very much for joining me. I hope this helps you in these volatile times. I wish you the best. Have a good weekend and may the trend be with you. Goodbye.