 Rha without you all, that is me, I am getting the thumbs up from the back so I can welcome you all to this fantastic event. It is lovely to see a full house today and so I am your chair for this evening, my name is Susan Murray I am the director of the David Hugh Institute and I would like to welcome you all to the 2023 festival of politics this year's event celebrates the festival's 19th year of provoking inspiring and informing people of all ages and from every walk of life to engaging three days of spirited debate. I look forward to the discussion and hearing everyone's thoughts and views as we move through. But first, I want you to get a theme for this evening that we want you to be as much part of discussion as discussion up here. So has anyone in this room ever been to the tattoo? Yes? Good, I can see some nods. Fantastic. Now at the tattoo, what they do to get the audience warmed up is ask everyone where they're from. And it really helps the panellists if we know how many people we've got from Scotland versus how many people we've got from the rest of the world. And last year, when we did a similar conversation, we had a tremendous range of people from all across the world. So I'm going to read out some countries and I just want to see if you can put up your hands or shout yes or anything that you feel you want to do. If you want to get up and shake your body, feel free to do that. So, how many people have we got from Scotland? Three! Wow, that is a lot tonight. And the rest of the UK? Fantastic. Oh, a bunch quieter bunch. Do you want to make any noise the rest of the UK? Great. And then elsewhere in Europe? And whereabouts in Europe? France, Spain, Greece, anything like that? Oh, fantastic. And then America and Canada? Oh, one, two, three. Fantastic. South America? Anyone? No. And Australia and New Zealand? Yes, very welcome. And then, rest of the world, I'm going to say, so I don't list every country and keep you here all night. Oh, no one from the rest of the world? Or are you just being very quiet and quiet? Fantastic, right? That's my little turn over then. So, we're here tonight to discuss 25 years of devolution in the UK. And I've got three fantastic panellists for you. So, first to my left, I'll get that right because you're looking at the other way round, is Nicola McEwen. So, Professor Nicola McEwen is Professor of Public Policy at the University of Glasgow. She specialises in nationalism, devolution into governmental relations with a focus on Scotland and the UK in comparative perspective. And next, we've got Philip Rycroft. Philip is a non-executive director and academic. He's previously worked as permanent secretary to the department for exiting the European Union and as head of the UK governance group and the cabinet office. And he's also on the commission for Wales, is that right, Philip? So, we'll also be touching on that today because I think that's a really interesting development that many people might not know that much in detail. So, we're going to pick Philip's brains on that. And then on the far left is Professor Katie Hayward. Katie is Professor of Political Sociology and Co-Director of the Centre for International Borders Research at Queen's University Belfast. So, good evening. How the evening is going to run? We are going to start with introductory comments from the panel, roughly about five minutes each. And then I'm going to give them a chance to reflect on each other just in case anything they want to come back on anything they've said. And then we're going to open it up to questions. So, I want you to have your questions ready and make them nice and short so that we can get lots in. Last year, when we had a similar discussion, we could not get through all the questions. So, don't dearly dally in putting your hand up because it just takes too long. And I'm going to take questions to a time. And the reason we do that, just if it tends to keep the questions shorter. So, it's just in case you're wondering why I'm doing that, that's one of the reasons. But it also means we can get through more. So, without further ado, over to Nicola. Thanks very much, Susan. And thanks everybody for coming. This is a great turnout. I think I want to start by saying a little bit about just how quickly and how firmly established the Scottish Parliament became quite early on in its short 25-year history. It's become the focal point of politics, of public discourse, of the focus of the policy community within Scotland. Despite the fact that the UK Government still has significant policy responsibility for Scotland in areas that it controls, in areas that are reserved under the devolution settlement. But I think in many surveys over the years we have seen consistent levels of support for the Parliament, significantly higher levels of trust in the institutions of devolved government compared to those of the UK government. That may be about proximity, it may be about attitudes to devolution. But that has been there, and it has been there even when sometimes there might be some frustrations with whoever is the party of government or whichever policy, the institution itself has that underlying consent. And consent, remember, that was invested in it at its foundations when three quarters of the people of Scotland voted for the Scottish Parliament in the 1997 devolution referendum. But I wanted to draw attention to what I think are three broad challenges that are facing devolution now and in recent years. One of those is around the big constitutional debate that has dominated politics in Scotland for much of the last decade, well probably all of the last decade actually, and leaving aside the issue of independence in and of itself, which is often presented as a binary choice, independence yes or no or you for it or against it. What I find quite interesting is when you look at the trends in public opinion in academic surveys, and in particular I'm thinking of the long running Scottish social attitudes survey, you see in the last few years quite a significant, when you put devolution alongside independence alongside there being no parliament at all, over the whole period those preferring no parliament at all are really very small, really very small and insignificant. But what's happened since about 2016 is that support for independence is now significantly higher than support for devolution when presented as a three way option, and that is a shift and that is a challenge to devolution going forward. The second set of challenges are around the complexities to the system of devolved government that we have now. So when it was founded, the Scotland Act 1998 was the foundational document of the Scottish Parliament, there was a relatively clear, not crystal clear but a relatively clear distinction between what was reserved to the UK parliament and what was devolved, what was the responsibilities and the law making powers of this institution. And as the powers of the parliament grew, and in particular in the most recent settlement in 2016, it all got a whole lot more complicated. And that tends to be the case when you increase more powers, particularly around taxation and social security, where elements of these things are devolved and elements of them are reserved and it all gets a lot more complex and interdependent. And we've never really had the machinery of government, of intergovernmental relations to support that complexity. Add on to that Brexit and the ways in which Brexit led to a repatriation of powers from the EU to the UK, and that all became a whole lot more complex still. And that leads to the third set of challenges and that's what has happened since Brexit and the ways in which the UK government have responded to the challenges of Brexit. And they have done that in a way that has eroded some of the authority of the devolved institutions, eroded some of the underpinning principles of the devolved institutions, most notably the Sewell Convention, and I'm not going to explain it because I'll let Philip do that more. But what we've seen in a sense is a much more competitive approach to devolution from the current UK government. It won't necessarily be the case from a future UK government of a different hue, but that's the scenario that we are in just now. And it's perhaps in response to the powers of the parliament and the boundaries of those powers being pushed a bit more from within the Scottish government to try to, you know, maximise its room for influence, maximise its powers, but we're seeing a pushback now as well from the UK government perhaps seeking to contain it. And in things like the United Kingdom Internal Market Act, a really important piece of legislation, they are now constraints on the law-making reach of the Scottish Parliament in a way that they were not before. So complexity, constitutional questions and competition are three features that I think are challenging devolution as it stands now. Thank you. Thank you, Susan. I may just say a little bit more about my own career, if I may, because there was a wee bit of a freesong when you said that I was the permanent secretary of the Department for Arts in the Year, which indeed I was, but I was there as a civil servant, and I was a career civil servant. I started my career here in Scotland, so worked in what was the Scottish office, and then Scottish Executive, Scottish Government over the devolution horizon, so was part of the teams that put together devolution in those days. It was a long time ago, certainly for me now. So I then moved down to Whitehall to work down there. I stayed living in Scotland, but started working in Whitehall in 2009, worked in the business department, and then I ran the civil service side of the office of the Deputy Prime Minister, Nick Clegg, just to show I could work with pro-Europeans as well as less pro-Europeans. And then the interesting bit for this audience in a way is that part of that process, he was sort of responsible for constitutional stuff, so as part of my civil service responsibilities, I led within the UK government the civil service support for the government through the Scottish independence referendum. So very involved in that from a civil service point of view, and coming out of that there was a recognition, and this is quite an important theme, by the then Prime Minister David Cameron and my boss, the Cabinet Secretary, Jeremy Heywood, that understanding of devolution in Whitehall was really, really weak, and this was demonstrated without any shadow of a doubt through that independence referendum campaign, because we were trying to get Whitehall mobilised to demonstrate the benefits of union, and it was, to put it mildly, hard work. So out of that we established, set up something called the UK Governance Group, which Prime Responsibility was to advise the Prime Minister on constitution and devolution issues, and I also looked after the Scotland Office and the Wales Office of Territorial Departments in the UK Government context, but not the Northern Ireland Office. So through that process we were responsible for some of the things that Nicolaus described. I was with my team led on the 2012 Scotland Act, the 2014 Wales Act, and then the 2016 Scotland Act, 2017 Wales Act. But then all of that, of course, was, we thought we had a plan, was then completely turned over by the vote in 2016 on Brexit, which took everything into a completely strange space. So I carried on doing that constitutional job, but was asked as well to pick up work in the Department for Education and the EU, and I ended up as the permanent secretary there. And then I left the civil service on pretty much 29 March 2019, which somebody will remember was the date we were meant to leave the EU, and thereby proving that I could organise one exit if it was just my own, but not the big one. So that's the sort of context in which I come from, is in a sense having seen worked four politicians, four major political parties including the SNP, several Democrats, Conservatives and Labour, and seeing the political context in which devolution has operated over the last 20 years or so. I was just thinking about this morning and remembering that in January 2015, as part of the Smith Commission process that led up to Scotland Act 2016, we published a white paper, UK Government, the title was Scotland in the UK and Enduring Settlement. And I sort of like, that rings a bit hollow now, given everything that's happened since then. And I just to pick up where Nicola's left off, my sort of theme on this, I think although devolution is embedded, it's almost inconceivable that the UK Government could, in terms of its legislative authority, overturned devolution in Scotland, Wales and indeed Northern Ireland, eddys very unlikely to do so. So devolution is embedded, but it is under challenge. What does devolution mean? The concept of devolution. And that's certainly true in Scotland to a lesser extent in Wales, some of those themes that are evident there as well. And Katie will take you through the complexities of what's gone on in Northern Ireland, which is never easy. And just by the by, one of my other hats at the moment is, I sit on the independent constitutional commission that Mark Drake for the First Minister of Wales set up to look at Wales's constitutional future. That's been in existence for the last 18 months or so, and we'll report around about the turn of the year. The thing I want to just emphasise in these introductory remarks is the polarisation of the debate over the last, really since the referendum, but exacerbated hugely by Brexit. On the one hand, you've got obviously the push for independence in Scotland with opinion polls now, never really dropped below the high point they reached in 2014, around 45%. It's been quite a long period of time since then, notably in 2020-21, they've been over 50%. So you've got that drive, obviously, and that drive majority support for independence in the Scottish Parliament as it is currently constituted. On the other hand, you've got this new discourse, particularly from the right wing of the Conservative Party, if I could describe that as that, which is challenging the concept of devolution. When I worked in the UK government, there were no voices espousing that sort of view that devolution was a mistake, that somehow the clock needed to be turned back. But there are now people close to power and in power in the UK government who do hold that sort of view. And you can see that tension in the way that the UK government has handled devolved politics over the last two, three years. It's not universal across the UK government. There are still ministers who would follow what I would describe as the reasonableness agenda, which was what I advocated when I was a civil servant, which is basically the UK government has always got to be more reasonable than the Scottish Government and Welsh Government in order to essentially demonstrate its commitment to the union and the devolution settlements. But you see, as Nicolaus described, through the Brexit process, the ignoring of the Sewell Convention, which is where the consent of the Scottish Parliament, the Welsh Senate and Northern Ireland Assembly is sought when changes are made to law that impact on the devolved settlements. We enshrined that in the 2016 Act, where they're not normally in there, so consent would not normally be withheld. But what's happened now is the UK government is serially ignoring those votes from the Scottish Parliament, the Welsh Senate, a different case that America's Assembly is not sitting in Northern Ireland. And then you've got this very aggressive posturing over the UK Internal Market Act, over the Gender Recognition Bill, the Deposit Return Scheme. So you have in the system now this sort of drive to essentially create that conflict. You whisper it quietly, but it suits both sides to have that polarisation because, for the SNP, it pushes support. The UK government's been unreasonable, it pushes support in their direction. For the Conservatives, it says we're the defenders of the union. So if you care about the union, forget about Labour, come towards us. So it has worked for both sides over the last little while. Now, just to sort of conclude where does that leave us? It leaves us stuck with these very grindy gritty politics where neither side can persuade sufficient of the Scottish population or indeed the Welsh population to go one way or another. So this sort of politics is jammed. And in this situation, two things. One, nobody's really thinking and challenging about the way that devolution has been used to deliver innovative transformational policies on education, healthcare, economic development environment, be what it's made. There are some signs of that in Wales and in Scotland, but it is not like the discourse in this bill. It's sort of subsumed in that sort of polarised debate. But the other thing which is more important and has been interesting views on the floor on this one is it has stopped any debate about whether there's any options between the union as is, maybe unraveling devolution a bit like the UK and telemarketing and independence. There is in practice a lot of space in between those two things, but nobody's talking about it. And I think that is a real shame. And I think that's doing down politics, not just in Scotland, extending Wales and Northern Ireland as well. And the independent commission in Wales actually has been tasked bravely, I think, by Mark Drakeford to peer into that space. So there's maybe one bright spot in other words, a slightly gloomy outlook. Thank you. From a bright spot to Katie. Thank you. And I don't think anybody expects me to be talking about Northern Ireland in all of this. So thanks for the invitation to be here. It's great to see everybody. I'm looking forward to a discussion about devolution, not just because we can pick up a lot of commonalities. We tend to talk about Northern Ireland very much in terms of its exceptionality, of course. But I think this is a timing moment. Of course, 25 years of devolution, 25 years of the Good Friday Belfast Agreement to reflect on Northern Ireland in relation to the other regions and nations of the UK. And devolution in Northern Ireland isn't embedded. We know in contrast to Scotland very early on in the days of the assembly and executive there were problems leading to its suspension within a few years. But of course, devolution is essential to the Good Friday Belfast Agreement. It's a really core part of it. It was what enabled the majority of people in Northern Ireland to vote in favour of it back in 1998. So, to draw some similarities and comparisons with what's already been said, there is support for devolution despite the fact that it hasn't functioned well. We haven't had the institutions functioning in Northern Ireland for about 40% of the past 25 years. Four out of the last six years, they haven't been functioning. It still has the support of the plurality of people. So, the majority in Northern Ireland still support the Good Friday Belfast Agreement, so the plurality of them say that they want it to be reformed in some ways when you ask them how, then obviously different opinions come forward unsurprisingly, but it remains overwhelmingly supported by the majority. And the plurality of people still support devolution. Only about 14% want direct rule and that figure interesting enough hasn't really changed very much over the past 25 years but we have seen similarly to Scotland we have seen declining support for devolution. So, in the most recent Northern Ireland Life and Time Survey, which is the equivalent of the Social Attitude Survey in Scotland, we see that the support for devolution has now dropped around 35%. Support for Irish unification has been rising, it's doubled since 2015 and now it's at 31%. So, that helps us understand why we are in such a situation that the suspension of the institutions in Northern Ireland seem to be very, very critical. So, just to bring up to speed and where things are, we don't have the functioning assembly and executive. There had been hope or maybe there still is, we're not there yet, but maybe in September we'd see some movement, maybe the DUP would agree to allow the assembly to sit, would agree to go back into power sharing. That's beginning to look a little bit doubtful now. So, why are we in this dilemma and how do we get out of it? Well, again another key similarity is the big Brexit question, of course. The context for devolution fundamentally undermined or challenged anyway by Brexit. We see this in opinion polling in growing expectation of Irish unification as well as support for it. That's changed the dynamic sense of the stability of the context for devolution. But also, of course, the British Government has played a really crucial part in weakening the conditions within which Northern Ireland's institutions have been considered stable in the past. In part, and I'm not going to go into it right now, but the decisions around how to manage the UK's exit from the EU and the implications of that for Northern Ireland, those decisions that were led to the original protocol, et cetera, weren't necessarily made with the union in mind. They were made in many ways with other priorities, despite warnings. We've also seen a lot of partiality on the part of the British Government when it comes to dealing with internal politics within Northern Ireland. What does the dilemma tell us about the union and the future of the union and devolution in particular? There are three things just to bring out here which I think are really fascinating and of interest to all of us perhaps. One is the limited power of the British Government when it comes to its relationship with the devolved executives and key parties in the devolved regions and nations. And that power seems to be a power to harm actually more than to build up. So we've seen that a negative impact of some British Government decisions we'll be discussing them I think in more detail, but particularly with respect to Northern Ireland we can see it even at the moment in the budget that the British Government has brought in it's a very punitive budget that's affecting the most vulnerable in Northern Ireland society so it has no impact whatsoever on the DUP's willingness to go back in. So it can do harm but it can't build up support for devolution it seems to be able to use a stick with respect to the wider public maybe carrots for the DUP. Another thing it tells us is about the lack of voice for the devolved in support of devolution even though the majority of people or plurality of people support it who's championing it do we see the British Government championing devolution to some degree they say it's for the future of the union but not in real in meaningful ways and in Northern Ireland we don't have champions for devolution as such partly because of this seeing Northern Ireland's future in very different terms people very rarely talk about Northern Ireland's interests per se then thirdly is the lack of consideration as to there's a lack of a plan as to the way out, the alternative so as the alternative virus unification becomes seen as more attractive more viable simply because the alternative isn't happening at the moment this highlights all sorts of difficulties about the inability of the British Government to get us out of this situation how its hands are tied and we're all waiting for the DUP to move and I should say if we don't see devolution restored in the coming weeks and months it's going to just get harder and harder to restore particularly with the likely change of government in the Republic of Ireland to be Sinn Fein looks likely to be in Government there or it just becomes more difficult to restore power sharing and a much more unattractive prospect so we could see ourselves despite the will of the majority of people at the moment slipping in towards not having devolution restored in Northern Ireland and that could well lead into the break up of the union Thanks Katie Sorry, bright spot I forgot Just before we came in I had the privilege of talking to all three of you there was one other thing that we talked about that I'll just get you to cover briefly to do with the role of proportional representation in devolution the changes with the London mayoral elections that people in the room might not necessarily have spotted So, yeah, I think for those who are not familiar with UK policies it's a real complex of different electoral systems but broadly speaking in the devolved context operates under a form of proportional representation whereas the elections to the UK Parliament has still first passed the post and a decision that was slipped through without a lot of fanfare a lot of fuss about it which is actually quite an important decision administration was to end the system of essentially proportional system of electing mayors in England to turn that back in to first pass the post just two very quick additional thoughts on that if you want to understand some of the problems in the UK constitution as a whole my view you don't have to look much further than first pass the post which entrenched polarisation in British politics across the piece I think it's a shockingly bad way to elect people in what is a complex world with a great variety of different opinions and you see the way that the people either end of the spectrum in the parties the members of the party how unrepresentative they are of the broader population they select the MPs that are then elected many of them without a contest effectively by first pass the post but I won't go there because it's not what we're about to say the other thing is just to mention very briefly English devolution so England itself is one of the most probably most centralised policy in the democratic western democratic world an attempt by previous various governments including this one to devolve power regionally locally in England but that's been a stuttering process but the importance of that is England has and indeed the UK more widely the biggest interregional inequalities again pretty much in certainly in a if you compare with the EU and elsewhere and some of the biggest personal inequalities as well and so the way that the UK has been run for the last 40-50 years has failed to close those gaps devolution in England some would say is perhaps the key that might unlock that door but Whitehall and Westminster are very very reluctant to let go of real power I'll leave it at that Is that the reason for the stuttering process? Absolutely Nicola and Katie, is there anything you want to come back on before we open up to the audience? Maybe just one thing and it was parallel in response to both Katie and Philip, I think Katie you had to say who's championing devolution and I think that's absolutely a question that can be asked within Scotland too because on the one hand to some it used to be the SNP actually a project of self-government but the SNP appeared to have kind of moved on from that the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats maybe ought to be the ones that you would most expect a championed devolution but in a sense you get the feeling that they just are tired of the dominance of the constitutional issue and want to get on and focus on those policy issues that you mentioned and in the one sense I do accept that too much debate around policy or whatever is reduced to the constitution in Scotland and it isn't always about the constitution but it is sometimes about the constitution and the constitutional settlement does shape what is possible in so many areas of public policy and that's partly because of the fiscal context that has been instigated by the tax and social security powers and recent settlement it's also partly about I mentioned the United Kingdom Internal Market Act which does constrain or even encourages the perceptions that it will constrain a policy and I think that has led to a kind of stagnation and some policy development that we might have otherwise seen because of a fear that there might be intervention further down the line that puts a halt to it and there might be many issues around bottle return scheme but that was one of them there The other example is the illegal migration bill for those that haven't been following it it's a really complex discussion but it's going to essentially trample on devolved legislation in two counts one is a children's bill from 1995 and the other is a 2015 Human Trafficking Act where the statutory powers with local government that they're then going to be potentially committing a UK law illegal act by delivering the statutory powers it's filled it back as you're smiling have you watched that debate at all? No, I haven't been following it that closely but it is of a piece of what we've been seeing as I say this the Scottish Parliament, the Welsh Senate serially not relating the consent motion through for UK legislation that impacts on the devolution settlements and it's sort of like UK government basically doesn't care anymore I mean this is now the Sewell Convention which was and ought to be a really important buttress of the devolution settlements is sort of broken and you've got this and as I say the UK government there's no real incentive now for them to reach out and try and get agreement on these really complex and difficult controversial issues what they're doing now clearly in months or so where they're out in the polls those of the Conservative party very trailing, very badly in the polls they're sort of trying anything at the moment and frankly in that sort of political context the niceties of trying to make the devolution settlement work is very low on their priority list How about you as the audience then I can't see all the hands up because of some bright lights so I rely on the people with the microphones to get them to the people with the hands so I can see them springing into action so there's some at the back and some at the front and it's up to you to choose the people because I can't see very well So the two referendums that happened in the last 10 years have been framed kind of as a choice between democracy and prosperity in the 2014 referendum the economic case for the union was one of the stronger ones versus the case of let Scotland choose its own destiny and then in the EU referendum it was the case of an undemocratic EU but also one of the world's most powerful blocs now in my opinion maybe not shared by others I think that in Scotland they chose the economy and in Brexit they chose democracy but do you think that it is still a binary choice for devolution that you are choosing between the greater economic union with the UK or personal devolution sorry devolution and local democracy or more local democracy Do you think that's still the case? Thanks and there's another question at right the back end just if we take that one at the same time What difference would a Labour Government make in a year's time? Right two controversial questions there who wants to take them who wants to start Philip do you want to take the Labour Government one or the EU one? I'll do you briefly with them both so the referendum question is a very good question referendums are a shockingly bad way to make complex decisions and I've been involved in two of them sort of one one lost one you know these were very complex difficult issues referendums are quite good for confirming what looks like a settled will as indeed the 1998 referendum on devolution for Scotland 74% that sort of settled it everybody is clear that's the way forward and you have these two quite close outcomes both for Scottish Scottish independence and for Brexit and the debate polarised the debate is a polarising one with the referendum because it is one or another and there's no scope for nuance you can't close that gap because you have to decide and the way that polarisation then feeds in to the body politic it stays there for a very long time as we're seeing both in Scottish context but also in the broader UK context I wouldn't put it my mind doesn't work like this is about democracy versus prosperity governance, government, democracy ought to be about finding consensual ways forward that deliver both democracy and prosperity and you see the way that the debate is characterised you look at what's happened with Brexit it sort of confirms that the way that the debate was set out was actually quite rather misleading this was a complex decision which has had and will continue to have very complex impacts not just on the economy but on cultural, social life and 101 other things so the referendum choose your instrument carefully when it comes to making these big decisions but as I say what I would argue for is trying to find a way through these debates where you're not making that sort of binary choice between one hand prosperity and the other democracy those two things ought to march hand in hand Labour government could make a huge difference but I think that just the a starting point for that what they inherit will be a really really difficult not least fiscal context they'll inherit a country that's very uneasy with itself they'll inherit a relationship with the EU which is not yet off the ground post put in place the free trade agreement there's a whole series of difficult decisions to be made around all of that a health service that's on its knees these regionally called they will come into power and there's a series of incredibly difficult issues to deal with and they won't have a lot of money to throw at those problems so if I was sitting in Starmer's office right now I'd say you've got to be ready if you do win the election to have a very very honest conversation with the people of this country because expectations will be very high and the risk is they'll fall way short in meeting those expectations and that's my biggest worry that they just won't get traction because there's really difficult problems so I'm not very cheerful either Nicola, do you want to come next? On the referendum as a device thing I'm not sure I've always thought that a referendum is the worst possible way to settle these sorts of issues apart from all the others and there are different ways to do a referendum and actually I think 2014 and 2016 were contrasting in that sense I think I would have preferred the 2014 referendum to not be binary or not structured in the way that it was but at least the long running period meant that there was a genuine deliberation where we collectively learned and challenged and pressed and evaluated some sort of vision for what it might look like and you can criticise the aspirational content of the white paper quite fairly I think but at least it was there and we could challenge it and in the Brexit referendum there was nothing there hence the Prime Minister who took on the responsibility and she worked out what it meant because there was no plan so there are different ways to do it there are ways that can help to build a consensual process and that can help to ensure losers consent and we have no way of knowing where we would be in Scotland right now around the constitutional issue had we not then had the Brexit referendum follow so soon after that made the issue return again so forcefully or what difference will Labour Government make don't know depends here I would think I would separate out to the institutional from the political so some of the institutional complexities that I was talking about around the nature of the devolution settlement around Brexit and all the challenges that that has brought that will be there regardless that's a feature of Brexit and some of it might become easier if the Labour Party changes course on Brexit softens the relationship with the European Union for example but we don't know if they are going to go there on the political side I would expect a different kind of approach I would hope for a different kind of approach that was less combative less competitive almost you know and perhaps recognising that the evolution was a Labour policy and something that the party might want to celebrate and let's not forget they will have a Labour Government in Wales the most experienced bit of the Labour Party in the UK in terms of governing expertise and wisdom and all the rest of it also putting pressure on internally within the Labour Party as well there were some big policies around the form of the House of Lords can't see it can't see it can't see it being a priority of a first term Labour Government possibly not a second term Labour Government either partly because it's really really complex to do but if it did happen I think there are more challenges for devolution than solutions for devolution in the challenges that we have talked about and what are those challenges just to I think having an upper chamber of the Westminster Parliament that is focused on the territorial constitution centralises the territorial constitution takes the focus away from the devolved institutions themselves and it's hard to imagine having that chamber being anything other than elected and then how would its relationship be with the devolved institutions up here so that they can act to protect and preserve devolution for the institutions here when they are accountable directly to a different electorate and also Scotland is quite small Wales is quite small Northern Ireland is quite small and once you put all of the nations and regions together how much do you amplify their voice or diminish their voice Katie, Labour Government in making a difference or referendum what you want to comment on both things actually just firstly about the democracy versus prosperity thing I can't help but wince at the idea that Brexit was about enhancing democracy in the UK because we have a crisis in democracy in the UK it's absolutely apparent I sit on something called the UK constitution monitoring group with the constitution society and every six months we produce a report and it's serious the evidence that we gather every research as I should say in the constitution society which they gather across several different areas which are fundamental to upholding the constitution of the United Kingdom which obviously is about upholding democratic values the evidence is absolutely stark and we write things very carefully don't exaggerate or exaggerate in any way but my goodness me just the list of things that get worse and worse in terms of fundamentals being breached so even putting it very simply the Prime Minister lying to Parliament restricting the powers of Parliament to hold the executive to account to scrutinise what the executive is doing the impartiality of the civil service being put under pressure in extraordinary ways the Prime Minister coming to power without any election being voted for with Liz Truss by whatever 170,000 Conservative party members Rishi Sunak wasn't voted for by anybody I could go on but we see the harm being caused to democracy in the UK particularly in relation to devolution so to take the example of delegated powers where government ministers have the power to create legislation without the need to go back to Parliament for approval those delegated powers are growing all the time they've grown exponentially and in some cases they have the the equivalent of being able to make the equivalent of primary legislation so significant of those powers and now they can make that in areas of devolved competence Scotland and Wales the governments have been very explicit in what this means and the Retain to You Law Act that's recently been passed gives UK government ministers those powers in relation to devolved competence without any response without any requirement to consult with the Scottish Government or the Welsh Government and all nine executive is there or indeed let alone with the parliaments no capacity for them to scrutinise and this is important not just in terms of the principle of democracy but also about us being able to know what applies what law is active in the different parts of the UK and this is going to go more and more complicated as we come to increasingly difficult to monitor so that's my response to that question and on the Labour what difference would Labour make just a couple of things that are sort of in relation to Northern Ireland but again have wider implications so as Nicola mentioned Keir Starmer's already said he would have a sanitary with the EU immediately making that relationship much closer immediately reducing the need for tax controls on the British EU border and that would immediately have implications for diminishing the significance of the so-called Irish sea border so making the union feel that much closer in relation to trade which would reassure Northern Ireland unionists will they do that, that's a whole other question but anyway at the moment that's the sense and some people are suggesting that maybe there's some maybe the DUP are waiting for that to happen they want that wider UK wide shift towards a closer relationship with the EU which is what the majority of people in Northern Ireland want to then ease the context for the union and another issue that's relevant is Peter Kyle who's the Shadow Secretary of State for Northern Ireland has said partly quite strongly encouraged by academic experts amongst others including myself to set out the conditions sorry the criteria for calling a border pole in Northern Ireland so at the moment according to the Good Friday Belfast Agreement the Secretary of State only has to call a pole if it looks likely that a majority would vote in favour of Irish unity but on what basis does he make that decision so Peter Kyle has said if they come into power he would set out the criteria so it might be a vote in the Northern Ireland Assembly if it's sitting it might be first preference votes in elections in Northern Ireland it might be Lord Helper's demographic survey or census data or polling data we don't know whatever he sets out will then become a target obviously in terms of Sinn Fein trying to meet those criteria it would also if we have a Sinn Fein Government in the south be something that they would be keeping an eye on as well but it would be something that would again be significant for devolution as a whole within the UK thank you great we'll get ready with the mic so we can take them all quickly I can see someone hands up there with the mic is that right just speak your way if you got it oh no it's not great oh fantastic it was my fan rather than my mic Esther Robertson here and I was involved in the constitutional convention and did some work in Northern Ireland and in Wales and I have to say first of all how sad it is to see what's happened in Northern Ireland when I think back to the hopeful days of Martin McGinnis and Ian Paisley travelling together and working together so I really hope you find a way forward and I'm really envious of Wales finding a way to put in place a commission that's got all four political parties on it and only wish Scotland could do the same but one of the things that strikes me about the Scottish situation is that part of the driver for getting a parliament in the first place was the involvement of civic society yes we had John Smith and Donald Dure as Labour Party politicians committed to the principle and making it Labour Party policy but it really was civic society that drove the whole change to PR and the like so I wonder if you think that actually the next 25 years it might be that resurgence of civic society that begins to address some of the critical policy issues that you've mentioned but also begins to explore the middle ground between the binary choice of independence which I think we should stop talking about it's autonomy not independence and the current devolution settlement Thanks Esther, Nicola do you want to take that while we get the mic to someone else so it's already for the next question I mean I think there's a spectrum whether there's a spectrum of independence as well as a spectrum of devolution and various points that you could take on that and it's never going to be static whatever the constitutional settlement even if it's independence that too will evolve but on the point about the constitution I would love to see something like that in Scotland and I think so it's interesting the constitutional and Philip is a member of the constitutional commission so that you can talk more to it but what I think is really interesting there is that the Labour Government in Wales supports the union and it supports devolution but it has created this independent space where different constitutional scenarios could be considered including the one that favours but including the one that plied favours and it's a broad spectrum and it's taking it out of the hands of political debate it's not so much cross-party I don't think but there is a cross-party element but there is a civil society element of people like Philip like Laura McAllister the academic university coming together and exploring the issues exploring what these would mean and taking the heat and the politics out of some of those issues and I think that would be a really interesting thing to do here too because we are now stuck on process and resolving not resolving you can't resolve but I think exploring some of the possibilities really interesting Katie saying that an incoming Labour Government might specify this in relation to a border pole in Northern Ireland I could see them then coming under some pressure to do something similar around Scotland and it's not to say that it would happen anytime soon or it should be a priority but actually when it isn't likely and it isn't imminent anytime soon it's exactly the time that you ought to maybe try and explore some of these really difficult issues so yeah back here on that one Thanks Philip It may be just a quick word about the approach that the Constitution Commission Wales is taking it is trying to approach this in a way that we're not going to come up with the answer we're not going to say the answer is X or it's independence or entrenched evolution or whatever because the world is too complicated for that what it will do hopefully is to say look people because ultimately you are sovereign in this space you're a nation you've been a nation for a long time of course you've been conjoined with England for centuries but nevertheless that nationhood is still very powerful very strong ultimately as the people of Scotland were sovereign in 2014 you that sovereignty rests with you and as the world changes the commission will report but the world will be the day after we've reported the world will have moved on the world changes so quickly but when you're thinking about your democratic future in that change in world here's some of the things that you need to consider so if you're thinking about independence what's the fiscal cost of that what's the economic prospectus what does it mean for self-governance what does it mean for the sort of policies that are pursued in Wales so it's sort of setting out that spectrum of opportunity of options but also trying to underpinning that with a sense about democratic engagement that this should not be a one off and then you know there'll be a lot of politicians they'll say we've wasted our time absolutely guarantee it and I can hear them say it already a complete waste of time you should've but this ought to be the trigger for a wider debate and you ought to have we ought to be thinking about citizens assemblies other ways of engaging citizens over time to think about these issues as well as wider civic society with the debate in this country as a whole it seems to me it's been impoverished over recent years we're not thinking deeply enough about this and the politicians will say aside from the big questions in Scotland Northern Ireland about whether the union but on constitutional issues more broadly well nobody raises them at the door on the doorstep it's your responsibility politicians to think about this to enhance to the democratic infrastructure what Katie has described is what I witnessed and have witnessed as a civil servant and subsequently is this steady drip drip drip of removing little barriers here and there that stand in the way of an overweening executive and we sort of take it and we lap it up nobody says anything it's really that's the real worry so anything that you're suggesting that engages civic society in thinking about these issues I think it will absolutely get my vote my support I can see you nodding vigorously fantastic we'll try and take two questions together can we keep the mic going faster because we've got a lot of questions so if we can take two together that would be great when the parliament was first established it seemed to focus on core areas of devolved government education, health, transport and taking policy making close to the people as time's gone on that seems to have lost its interest at times with the executive areas of perhaps COP26 or opening offices abroad or whatever it happens to be has that lack of focus has there been a cost to delivering high quality public services in Scotland can you take the next one in front as well with the glasses that would be great hi my name is David Brew I led the devolution team 25 years ago in the cabinet office we were very worried then Labour Government was very worried at the time about legislative leapfrogging and by that I mean that they introduced the Sewell Convention in order to mitigate the risk that the Scottish Parliament would repeal stuff that was passed in Westminster but that required a legislative consent motion in Scotland similar arrangements in Northern Ireland now given what Nicola was saying about competition the competition thus far has been largely it seems to me between the overweening executives and we've seen erosion of the respect for the legislative institutions in Scotland Wales and Northern Ireland do you see competition getting worse do you see parliaments attempting to assert their authority by repealing secondary legislation passed by UK ministers or even acts of the Westminster Parliament to the extent that they can under their devolved powers thank you can we get the mic up to the front for the next two questions because there are some over here will we answer those, would that be okay who wants to go first on those two me? so I think the question about the basic policy education health and so on is a very good question one of my jobs in the Scottish Government was as a civil servant looking after policy for four years one of my happiest jobs actually thoroughly enjoyed that but what devolution and this is true also for Wales getting Northern Ireland all slightly exceptional but you would hope for this as well in Northern Ireland the opportunity for what I would describe as transformational policy making using the devolved powers to get substantially better outcomes for young people for those using the NHS and so on in Scotland's case supported it's quite a generous Barnett formula settlement less so for Wales but in Scotland's case the expenditure per head is running about £1,500 I think above the average in England so it is disappointing to me that those powers haven't been used more creatively despite the promise of things like the Scotland performance the national performance framework a really innovative way of thinking about policy in Wales you've seen the Wellbeing of Future Generations Act this is about trying to think system-wide get the public sector to cohere to deliver better policy but we're not yet seeing that in the outcomes and that again ought to be that ought to be the subject of a lot more debate in Wales Scotland and indeed in Northern Ireland as well why aren't we getting better outcomes for the young people just one very quick example I sit on something called the promise Scotland the border, some of you have heard of this but there's a big review done of the care system support for youngsters who are taken into the care of the state despite the fact that the state devotes more attention to these youngsters than any other young people these youngsters get the worst outcomes educationally, socially employment wise more in the criminal justice system more likely to end up in prison all the rest of it this review is an attempt to turn that around now it has been driven by a bunch of very dedicated people so let's hope that makes a difference but to my book this could have been done 10-15 years ago we shouldn't have had to wait so long for that sort of change to come about but all the powers that are required to make those changes are here effectively in this building David I ought to point out was my boss at one point as well so when we were dealing with in happier times when we were doing Scotland in Europe and trying to get Scotland at the heart that's a whole other story competition the form that competition will take will vary it seems to me it will be opportunistic as we've seen from the UK Government pushing using the UK Internal Market Act taking the opportunity of the general recognition bill to assert its power essentially over the Scottish Parliament you see opportunism in all of that which I think is misguided because what it generates is this very oppositionalist stance and it wouldn't surprise me at all if the Scottish Government when it recovers its confidence it clearly is taking a wee bit of knocking recently but it will come back that it will seek to use its legislative powers to point up difference so I'd be surprised for example that there's been no legislation in Scotland for genetically modified food stuff like that where Scotland says we're doing this for health reasons within devolved competence in order to essentially poke the UK Government in the eye and the UK Government say you can't do that because this will contravene our reserve powers over trade assuming that's the world that we're in and we're creating the conditions where you get that competition that's not healthy just on that last one is the points that Philip was making and maybe one of the areas I've been working on the last few years is around intergovernmental relations and part of the competition comes through because of the dysfunctionality of the relationship between you're absolutely right, the executives the government of the day and partly that is in their mutual political interests to have that sort of battle some of the most probably all of the most imaginative thinking around intergovernmental relations has come out of Wales because it's the one part of the UK where there is commitment for the most part to making the UK work as a multi-national multi-level state but it's not getting a whole lot of traction there's some things have changed and you know that may help but the wider politics around that makes it very difficult on the broader policy issue I agree with Philip in that there are things that are difficult to change in wholly devolved areas some of that I think is because of some of the earlier decisions that were made that have become totemic in the devolved space commitments that were made in devolved policy areas that actually are quite difficult to sustain but quite difficult to change politically and there are a lot of vested interests in Scotland around particular policy areas too which can sometimes make it easier to do policy making but can sometimes make it hard as well I don't think any of that has anything to do with overseas offices or COP being in...COP climate policy environmental policies wholly devolved anyway apart from the international decision making dimension but all of these things I think can help the policy making process in Scotland because we can learn from not just from the rest of the UK but from other countries too because a lot of countries are dealing with very similar types of policy challenges in the face of demographic and fiscal constraints so I think the more we open up to learning from overseas the better and learning actually I've always thought there's a maybe plug here for what we're trying to do at Glasgow University but I've always thought that this institution and the government can make more of the resource that it has within the universities in Scotland and elsewhere but there is enormous capacity there that can aid and support the policy making process to help address some of those challenges unlock some of the barriers Thanks Katie Right so we had a lot of questions down the front but we haven't got to yet Brilliant if you've got the mic ask the question So you ask your question and then we'll follow up with another one nearby quite quickly so get your hand up if you're nearby I had a question so do you think that Scotland would be an independent state today if devolution had not taken place because although it allows Scottish people to express themselves it also helps the UK government to keep Scotland into the UK Thank you and is there another question nearby is there one just right behind you if you give the mic to the person behind you Fantastic thank you So the different devolved governments working together could be cheerleaders for devolution but they rarely do Is there any prospect that they might Thank you Who wants to start with those I don't want to Well I won't answer the Scottish independence one I'll leave that to Nicolae In terms of the Well I think actually the executives have spoken out jointly on a number of things recently particularly in relation to what's happening post Brexit and the taking back of powers back into Westminster Does that equate to a championing of devolution I think apart from anything else it's sort of at least some statement to the rest of England about the importance of devolution as as part of it as a permanent part of the UK constitution But of course I mean one thing that is very significant is just how of course we're dealing with different parties of significance in the different parts of the UK so obviously Northern Ireland our political parties are completely different really to those in the rest of the UK which is I think quite significant and that does have an effect on how much how much it's likely or not for them to be able to come out and speak jointly on speak jointly on these matters vis-a-vis the rest of the UK Nothing It is an interesting question actually one of the features since devolution is the limited extent of joint working but they certainly through the labour years the preference was for the Welsh Government the Scottish Government to sort of deal with the UK Government bilaterally rather than as of course the United Front and again Northern Ireland is always in a slightly awkward place with regard to that I mean I was part of my responsibilities worth looking after inter-government relations joint ministerial committee and all of that and we very rarely got a United Front facing the UK Government ministers from the devolved side of the equation but there is there's clearly scope for that the scope was Nicola has been describing actually about policy learning and this ought to be a lot bigger feature of the way that this is a brilliant real-time experiment you've got full governments dealing with similar socio-economic issues in many ways but having quite different policy approaches and the learning potential is huge instead they rarely seem to talk to each other which I think is a huge missed opportunity but that tendency to bilateralism then what happened with Brexit and to a degree also with Covid the UK Government was taking such an aggressive stance and being so reluctant particularly through Brexit time actually to engage the devolved government it sort of forced them together particularly the Welsh and the Scottish Government even though as Nicola has described Mark Drape for the First Minister of Wales he's a Unionist politician so it was creating an unnecessary alliance if you like against the UK Government when there could have been something a lot more constructive on no devolution what would have happened to Scotland there is a trope in Conservative Party right-wing thinking at the moment devolution was a big mistake but independence and everything that's happened since 1997 has sort of demonstrated that there is a strain of thinking that believes that and you can understand the intellectual construct there but it sort of misses the obvious question what could you have done in 1997 turn around to the people of Scotland and say actually we're not going to give you devolution it was unthinkable at that time when John Smith talked about the settled world of Scottish people and the incoming Labour Government said forget all of that, it's actually a bad idea that Scotland would not have got that measure of self-governance so the counterfactual I think just ignores the pressure there was then for devolution and if that pressure hadn't been released by the Scotland Acts in setting up the devolution then I think Scotland would have gone into quite a difficult political route which would not have been a very healthy one and do you think just to interject with a question do you think that group are getting a louder voice because they've taken back control from Europe do you think they're under take back control of the rest of the UK exactly and it is sort of ironic isn't it because that rhetoric is sort of applied to UK but doesn't it's not devolved they haven't understood they might actually devolve that rhetoric to other bits in England as well as Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland but it is a very UK parliamentary sovereignty point of view which says that this was about bringing about sovereignty to the UK Parliament again ironically as what Katie described earlier on they've seriously since then been ignoring the sovereignty of the UK Parliament and it's sort of it's actually taken back control for the executive arm of government but there's no doubt in my mind at all and you hear it from David Frost who was clearly very influential through the negotiation of the Brexit settlement so on has a pined on the devolution question saying actually the UK is a unitary state it's a sort of something that the UK never was which was an assimilation estate where you tried to undermine the differences that sustained Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland as in two cases nations and that was never really the agenda even through the 19th and 20th century but now you've got this strain of political thinking that says well you know this is a unitary state and sort of like devolution shouldn't matter because we're all the same and all these differences are not that and now in no way is that going to become the policy of any government of the foreseeable future but it's certainly influential in pulling the current government in a particular and I think quite unhealthy direction Nicola? I won't deal with country factual because there's no add anything to that and there's no way of knowing what would have happened but on the devolved governments potentially working together in draining forces we have seen a lot more of that in the context of Brexit and particularly between the Scottish Government and the Welsh Government I think one of the reasons why it didn't happen before was in part because of the different settlements and the different drivers of all of that and it had one of the fascinating things it had absolutely nothing to do with party allegiance because the relationship between an S&P Government and a Labour Government in Scotland and Wales is far stronger now than it was in the early years when it was Labour-led governments everywhere and that is a legacy of Brexit now how long that lasts and how widespread it goes into other policy areas that are nothing to do with Brexit I'm not sure and it's maybe too early to say but I think that I did some research interviews in the last few years which really made clear from officials not leaving aside the politicians the extent to which there was now a sense of solidarity between those two administrations in a way that was not the case before it hasn't made all that much difference in terms of gaining traction in the early part of Brexit I think it did but later on much less so but it's just another interesting feature I think of intergovernmental relations There's still a lot of hands can we come right yet do those two there and then come right forward straight away brilliant I'd like to ask what you think whether you think the current climate change crisis and the energy crisis has any influence on what might happen I'm just thinking of the resources that Scotland has wind power, wave power and obviously oil do you think that will have some kind of bearing on on devolution and in fact independence thank you and then the gentleman in the grey shirt grey stripey, is it gross? I can't see thank you just thinking first about pop in the support and for big changes it strikes me there was a white paper in 1998 and a white paper in 2014 but I was told specifically by the leave campaign in 2016 that a white paper gave you hostages to fortune so they wouldn't have one so maybe any decision on devolution in the UK should at least make that an obligation but the question was actually about this unsurprising absence of discussion about English devolution until later in the discussion and the late Neil McCormack used to say that the British constitution existed in the gaps between the European Communities Act and the devolved acts and I wonder to what extent is there any prospect of us working out what the settled will of the English people is on health, transport education or whatever or is English devolution always going to be the space and the gaps between devolution and the other parts of the UK and the United Kingdom Thank you and we've got a gentleman down here in our leather jacket cos he's had his hand up all the way through we're rapidly running out of time so we'll take the three together So we're sitting here today with 25 years of devolution in the UK if we all wind the clock forward if we're all still here and think about an event for 50 years of devolution in the UK will there be such an event, will there be a union you're particularly well positioned with all of your experience to have a view I would just throw my 50 euros or my 50 pounds on the deck and the crystal ball and see I'd love to hear what you think Fantastic, three brilliant questions and a range of topics too I seem to remember you working many years ago on environment for that man, alright? So do you want to take the climate change question? I can do climate change Of course it is marbled through all the debates about the constitution because it is just so important future of energy policy future of climate policy and so on again in a more ideal world than what we have at the moment you would have the governments working very closely together in order to resolve this and the UK government would be working very closely together with the EU these issues are only going to be settled ultimately by international concords and agreement we did it with the Montreal Agreement on CFCs for example which is the things that destroyed the A-Zone layer very very successful multinational agreement that actually has had an impact and we'll get there ultimately on climate change it seems to me bit of a race against time of course but the speed of that change will be a function of the extent to which governments learnt to cooperate together so this is space where we all as individuals and our children and our children have got a rather big interest in politicians behaving responsibly and do you think just taking that question slightly further pressure on resources particularly say water in the south east of England might drive some different conversations thinking longer term well it those who saw experience the heat wave in England last year when you got temperature up to 40 and so on you might have thought would have persuaded some of those who are sceptical about climate change and the effort that's required to change their minds I'm now living in Dumfrieshire and I've sort of got this image in 10, 15, 20 years time of the hordes of English people coming up from London elsewhere to enjoy the sort of the more temperate climate of Scotland but they I think the lived experience of people actually recognising that what they experience as individuals and their families is as a result of climate change I think ultimately becomes a driver accepting that change is required very disappointed to see the way that the for those who have followed the by elections in England recently but the in Boris Johnson's old seat this question about the ultra low emission zone did that allow the Tories to retain that seat and ergo is the public against climate change policies when it impacts on them I mean that elision of that outcome to that conclusion I think it just shows just how what a dangerous moment we're in politically and it is seemingly changing the policy certainly the Conservative Party which impacts on the way the government is dealing with this this above all other areas is one where we should not be thinking of it through political competition but through political collaboration Nicola do you want to take the white paper question there's more question about English devolution I think so what do you think to be fair mentioned at the very beginning and I'll go back to the point that Philip started with which is about the different meanings and understandings of devolution because when we talk about devolution in England a the settlements are different in different parts of England and moving at different pace and adding to the asymmetry that is a feature of the UK style of government just now anyway but B is very different from what we're talking about here in Scotland or Wales and even in Northern Ireland which emerge from a different process altogether as well and it's not and it's different in both in terms of the powers and the responsibilities but also in the drivers it seems to be very much a kind of top down functional type of approach to managing the governance of England which actually seems to have very little relationship to public opinion and public preferences about how England is governed England itself is a very diverse nation obviously one of the most centralised still in Europe but there isn't some of my colleagues wrote a brilliant book around I can't remember the title now but it was dealing with a long running series of data on the future of England's survey and one of the things that came out quite clearly from that was that there wasn't a settled position about what people in England wanted but probably the least want is what they're getting so make of that what you will brilliant question but I'm not going to answer it sorry I never look into crystal balls if anyone else wants to do that and the climate question is brilliant as well but honestly I can't imagine it not having an effect in some way but it's really difficult to predict and we're already seeing the politicisation of climate in the run up to the general election in ways that are disappointing but I think irrespective of the constitutional relationship between the different parts of these islands and indeed this continent there would have to be co-operation because climate and environment doesn't really respect constitutional boundaries and you have to find ways to work together Thank you, do you want a crystal ball? I'll take it on because it's what we all want to know what's going to happen I won't take it on directly and it has my own opinion but I will share the opinion of the people in Northern Ireland and it points to how quickly things have changed and how like a combination of events unfortunate events can lead to quite significant change in expectations so in the life and time survey in Northern Ireland 2020 we asked for the first time a question on do you think the United Kingdom will exist in 20 years time because for the previous 20 years we'd always said do you think United Ireland will exist in 20 years time and it was never more than about a quarter of people who said yes a quarter to a third of people so in 2020 we asked the question will the UK exist in 20 years time will the United Ireland exist in 20 years time and quite significantly more people thought the UK will exist in 2020 one we asked the same question and it was even Stevens exactly the same proportion 40% for each and then in 2022 the most recent one we asked the question and I think it was about 35% said the UK will exist in 20 years time and 42% said United Ireland will exist in 20 years time so you can just see how things are changing and that's because of a combination of things and it's not just around Northern Ireland that's not something specific to Northern Ireland I think it's people looking around and thinking goodness me things that we took for granted are looking very uncertain now and it's not just in relation to political parties and it is notable how change of leadership in S&P are implied goodness knows what's happening in the DUP can lead people to think the union is much more sure or much less sure than we thought it was a couple of months ago it shouldn't be like that so we sort of see that shift and definitely clearly two thirds of people in Northern Ireland say Brexit has made United Ireland more likely so that may be all well and good but that doesn't happen overnight it isn't all sunny up plans what happens in between and it's absolutely clear obviously what the British government views and approaches to devolution will play a part in determining whether this is going to be a very unsettling possibly dangerous time but it's also a responsibility of the parliaments and the executives and the various parts of the UK as well and in Ireland too and I do think it's a big on Nicola's point as well whatever happens in with respect to United Ireland will be a very significant minority who are British and next generation people can be born and have British citizenship that's part of the Good Friday Agreement so how does Ireland deal with that and what does that mean for the UK as well for the wider relationship between Ireland and Britain and at the end of the day history tells us we are uniquely connected across these islands we have common identities, common concerns pressing urgent needs to act jointly and together on these things so picking up on a lot of the issues that have been raised about the opportunities now for cooperation for proper informed policy making for engagement with civic society getting the imagination and enthusiasm of citizens who are directly impacted by the success or the failure of government policies this is a ripe opportunity opportunity moment for us to step forward I think and the willingness of yourselves to come forward and participate in an event like this to mark 25 years of devolution to have a festival of politics is all fantastic I think and it's a really positive sign so even though I haven't offered many bright spots in our discussions I think this is in and of itself your engagement in this gives us hope and certainly there's a lot of positive things to build on knowing that this is an uncertain time and that crystal ball we sort of know the things to come that will be very difficult to manage wow, what a what a call to action to all of you there we have whizzed through our time together I don't really know where it's gone because I'm really sorry to the people that we haven't got to questions in but my duty is to bring the event in on time so Katie that felt like a really rousing call to action for final comments from you is there anything else you'd want to add because my script says give everyone one last chance for final comments but I don't know how you top that because that was really brilliant any other words you want to add as a PS to the audience no no because then I'll just mess it up no Honestly, it was really good Philip, what thoughts do you want to leave the audience with? I'm in my own attempt to answer that so I'll just look in that 25 year question I think if you book your ticket now for 25 years time I can almost guarantee that you'll have a bunch of folks sitting on this platform talking about relationships between Scotland and Wales and Northern Ireland it'll look different and feel different but that commonality of interest that Katie has described is just too strong for these different parts of these islands to go completely in separate ways it's this whole question that's been alluded to quite a lot that independence is quite it's a quite sophisticated concept when you start to drill away at it as we've seen through Brexit what does independence actually mean and you take defence policy security policy, foreign policy trade policy, economic policy currency and all of these things so many of them it will remain in the interest of the people of these islands to be working collaboratively together I would argue also with our near abroad in terms of the EU and so on and obviously that encompasses Ireland as well as Northern Ireland so these questions the form of the question will shift and change over time and the formality of the relationship will shift and change my own view I think is driven by if you go deep into the way the long sweep of history the self-governance for people who identify as a nation is very difficult to suppress if I could put it that way around so we're not going to see Scotland Wales put back in a box as it were we're not going to see an assimilationist agenda succeed Northern Ireland ultimately will come down I think to demographic processes to where that big question ends up so I suspect we will see we will see further moves to more self-governance for Wales and Scotland over time but that done in a context of recognising I hope that there are these very very strong common interests across these islands and I would add just to pick up the point about English devolution that taking place in England which rediscovers its great tradition of municipal government this centralisation is not a given and it is a mess at the moment but there are some green shoots there and I think over the next 20-30 years we will see I mean I hope that when I'm a Yorkshire born and bred and I've lived in Scotland for 30 odd years I still I still doff my couch to my Yorkshire parentsage that the the counties and the cities particularly the north of England find their voice again and find their confidence which has been so sorely knocked over the last few decades but that would be part of the United Kingdom that feels ultimately comfortable with itself OK, Nicola I'm not sure there's too much I can add to that I completely agree with both Katie and Philip I suppose just one thing because I talked about the centralisation of England and the diversity of England and it's appropriate to acknowledge that Scotland too is very diverse and somewhat centralised and there is a debate to be had about municipal governance within Scotland as well and community governance perhaps more appropriately but on the broader point about the relationships across these islands I think absolutely irrespective of the constitutional settlement or state because I do think it evolves always there will have to be ways to work together and cooperatively not always agreeing with each other but just because of the gender equality just because of the geography of the circumstances of living on these islands you cannot escape the fact that there will be shared challenges, shared problems and for that you have to have some element of shared governance so in two words I'm going to say we can somewhere up and saying it's very complicated that's three words isn't it so my job here is almost done I've been asked to remind you for anyone that's booked through Eventbrite to please make sure you fill in the survey because the Festival of Politics want your feedback to continue to strive to improve these events each year so please do let us know what you think of it in a moment we'll thank the panellists in the usual way but I want to take this opportunity to remind you that there are two more days of the Festival of Politics tomorrow and Friday and if you're particularly interested in listening to former politicians Michael Putillo is on at 1pm tomorrow and there's other events like 35 years since section 28 on at 3.15 and lots lots more on many different subjects so please do get involved and go and listen to more thought provoking events so Philip, Nicola and Katie we'd like to thank you for your time today I've learnt a lot and I hope the audience have too thank you very much