 Hello everyone, welcome to Options with Doug, streaming live daily on Bookmap Discord and the Bookmap YouTube channel at 1.30 p.m. eastern time. Before I get started, I need to go through the Disclosures. General Disclosure. I'll Bookmap them in materials, information, and presentations are for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations. Disclosure, trading futures, equities, and options involve substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Here's my contact information. The best way to get in touch with me is through Discord. My name on Discord is Doug P. Also on Bookmap Discord, there's an options-doug chat channel that's a great place to post questions, comments, and content related to the topics of my presentation and the topics of the channel that I'll go through in just a moment. I'm also on X, formerly known as Twitter. My name there is at Doug Plus. The focus of my presentation today is options, order flow, the impact of options markets on stocks and futures, and the influence of market maker hedging flow on price action. I have a two-step process for trading and the first is planning and I use positional analysis. I look at how traders and market makers are positioned at the options market and how those positions change from day to day to develop a thesis regarding the expected trading range and volatility for the day, as well as a directional bias. And the second step in my process is execution. I look at real-time motor flow on Bookmap and real-time market maker hedging flow on Spot Gama Hero to confirm my thesis and for setups for injuries and exits. And when I talk about setups today, I will be talking about setups in an underlying asset. Those setups can be taken any number of ways. For example, the S&P 500 setups can be taken with ES futures, spy shares, spy options, SPX options, or even ES options. Questions and comments are welcome. I will be watching both the options-dash-dug chat channel and Discord, as well as the chat and YouTube for your questions and comments. Please feel free to post and I'll do my best to answer your questions. Oops, I forgot to take this out. Give me just a moment, clean this up. All right, there we go. All right, my agenda for today, Monday, November 27th. And by the way, everyone, I hope you had a great Thanksgiving long weekend. Welcome back. All right, so this is Monday, November 27th. And my agenda for today, first of all, I want to go over news items, economic data events, and earnings for today and for the rest of the week. Then I'll go through my positional analysis. Then I'll review some setups earlier today. And then I'll take a look at the live market. And when I get to the live market, if anyone has any stocks they want me to take a look at, please let me know and I will be glad to do that. All right, so news items. Today there was some economic data coming out, new home sales at 10 a.m. that came in less than expected, less than previous number. Then tomorrow at 10 a.m. consumer confidence on Wednesday at 8.30 a.m. eastern time GDP, economic data report. And then on Thursday, probably the big report for the week, definitely the big report for the week, is the PCE data. That's at 8.30 a.m. eastern time. That's the information that the Fed looks at. And then on Friday, December 1st, at 10 a.m., there's PMI data out at 10 a.m. again. And a drone pal is speaking at 11 a.m. And there are a number of Fed speakers every day this week, I guess capping off with drone pal speaking on Friday. All right, so that's the week. A little bit of data every week. All right, let's get started with positional analysis now. Let's start with ESP 500. The ESP futures in book, ma'am. Before I take a closer look at this chart, I want to take a look at a larger time frame. I'm going to go to the SPX. This is a 30-day one-hour chart. And good afternoon, Don. Welcome. Glad you're here. All right, SPX, 30-day one-hour chart. First of all, I want to point out the key turning points on this chart. And this is the October 30th. This is when the current rally began. On Friday before, traders were loading up on puts concerned about weekend risk. And then on Monday, implied volatility started to drop. Price rose. Market makers that were short futures could buy back their short futures as those puts quickly lost value. That was a huge IV collapse, put-vanna rally, some consolidation. Then this is the Friday, November 10th, magnificent 7 rally for lack of better term. And then fueled higher again by the benign CPI report that was on Tuesday the 14th. And note, during this time, at the beginning of this rally, market makers position on the gamma curve was quite negative. And that negative gamma was gradually decreasing throughout this rally. And now market makers position on the gamma curve is quite positive. I'll talk more about that in a few minutes. So multiple areas of consolidation, SPX, right now in another area of consolidation. All right, let me point out the levels on this chart. First of all, the dash purple lines are showing the lower and upper weekly expected move. Pretty narrow range this week. That's based on the options market that is updated once a week. Then the dash blue lines are showing the lower and upper daily expected move. Quite narrow, plus or minus around 15 points. SPX trading right within that range. That's updated once a day, again, based on the options market. All right, there are also some spot gamma levels on this chart that I want to point out. These are proprietary spot gamma levels available to spot gamma subscribers for a variety of platforms. This is think or swim. Excuse me. I'm going to point out the key daily levels. First of all, here's the put wall at 4,400. That's a strike where the largest negative gamma that can be expected to act as support. The next level up is 4,495. That is the volatility trigger. That is spot gamma's proprietary volatility flip level. Below that level, market makers position on the gamma curve is negative in a negative gamma environment. They have to trade with price to hedge their delta exposure. And that tends to enhance or increase volatility when market makers are trading in the direction of price, both up and down. And then just above that is the 4,500 absolute gamma strike. That's a strike with the largest absolute negative and positive gamma. That's where most of the gamma weighted open interest is concentrated. And then above that is the call wall at 4,600. That's a strike with the largest net positive gamma that can be expected to act as resistance. And that is most likely the, as it looks right now, most likely the ceiling for price into the end of the year. Unless there's some unknown catalyst to move the S&P 500 up or down, PC data, drone pal, there is one more FOMC meeting before the end of the year. All right, those are the key daily levels. There were some shifts in levels. So compared with Friday, the volatility trigger did higher for SPX. And actually back to the level that it was at last Wednesday. All right, let's take a look at a shorter time frame just so we can see the levels in play for today. And again, a very narrow range. Yes, the B500. This is the start of the day right here. The cash open Monday, 9.30 a.m. The only spot gamma level in play is the 4550 level. There's a large gamma two. Gamma levels are ranked from one to five, one being the most important. So it looks like right now SPX may be breaking the uptrend that it has began just after 11 a.m. But overall, the key takeaway here is a very narrow trading range for today. Typical of a positive gamma environment and consolidation after a large run-up. All right, this is the S&P 500 futures in book map again. Excuse me. So on this chart, I have my own cloud notes. So I can show SPX levels. There's the 4550 level that I pointed out on the one-day one-minute chart. And note there is a difference in price between ES and SPX. Let me check on that. So today it is somewhere between 9 and 10, and I'm using 10. So I'm showing SPX 4550 at ES 4560. So ES minus SPX is right around 9 to 10 points. I'm using 10 here. I also have SPI levels on this chart. Here's the SPI put-wall volatility trigger. And then the SPI 455 level. That's a large gamma-2 level. So for SPI, there were a couple of shifts higher in levels. The put-wall shifted higher. Up to 454, shown below. So the volatility trigger, that shifted higher on Friday and remains at the same level, 454 today. The call-wall shifted higher on Friday and shifted higher again to 460. And that is bullish. And also for SPI, on Friday, the absolute gamma strike shifted higher and remains at 455 today. I actually mislabeled that. That should be the absolute gamma strike at 450. So bullish shifts higher, especially for SPI, on Friday and today. Today, again, the put-wall and call-wall both shifted higher. So the potential floor and the potential ceiling for price have moved higher for SPI. Alright, so overall for the SB500, bullish shifts higher levels in play. Again, very narrow range. 454 put-wall on the downside and around this 455 absolute gamma strike. Note most of the volume for the session, shown in the session volume profile column, concentrated between those two levels. Alright, we'll talk about setups in a few minutes. Let's take a look at NASDAQ now. A little bit more movement here in NASDAQ. And I'm going to take a look, first of all, at QQQ chart to isolate the QQQ levels in play for today. So this is a one-day chart for QQQ. Zoom in on this just a little bit. Here's the call-wall at 390. That is also the absolute gamma strike. So a very important level for QQQ. So right now QQQ is trading above its call-wall. Down below is 389. That's a large gamma-2 level. Both levels in play for today. Support, resistance. Now support. Note this combo-2 level just below the call-wall. And we'll see that same level on the NDX chart. So here's NDX. There's that combo level. The combo levels combined for the NASDAQ combine NDX and QQQ gamma-weighted open interest into one level. Here shown in terms of NDX price on the previous chart shown in terms of QQQ price. And just above that is the 16,000 level just right around the 390 level. So that's NDX. Let me zoom in just a little bit. Sorry, having trouble with my pen tool. Okay. So this is the cash open for today. All right, let's go back to book map now. I'll take a look at NQ. So just like the ES Futures, I have my own cloud notes. So I can show NDX levels as well as QQQ levels. Also round number levels for NQ. So here is the cluster of levels, that combo level, then the QQQ 390 just above that, and then the 16,000 level. All right, so just a grind higher today for NASDAQ as well as the SMB500. And again, we'll take a look at setups in a few minutes. All right, let's take a look at gamma notional now to see how market makers were positioned on the gamma curve at the beginning of the day. What I'm looking at is gamma notional for the SMB500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000. Note all these numbers are positive. This means that market makers position on the gamma curve for SMB500, NASDAQ, and the Russell 2000 is positive and a positive gamma environment for an index. This means that traders are short calls, market makers are long calls, and they have to trade against price to hedge their delta exposure, and that tends to subdue or decrease volatility. So in a positive gamma environment, I'm typically looking for more of a range day smaller moves and then a very large negative gamma day where I would be looking for bigger moves and more trend trading. All right, so again, all these numbers are positive and compared with Friday. All right, so on gamma notional on Friday, all the numbers increased. Gamma notional for SPX unchanged. For SPI, slightly less positive but still positive. Then mix for the NASDAQ, up for NDX, lower for QQQ, and then shifts higher and gamma notional for the Russell 2000. So again, the key takeaway here is they're all positive. So when this market makers position on the gamma curve at the beginning of the day was positive for all these indices. All right, let's take a look at the Vana model now to get a graphical representation of what this means. This is the Vana model for SPX. On the vertical axis, this is market makers delta notional. They're delta exposure. On the horizontal axis, this is spot price of SPX. There are two curves on this chart. The light gray curve shows how market makers delta notional may change with changes in price only. And then the purple curve adds implied volatility to the equation. That shows how market makers delta notional may change with changes in price and implied volatility. Excuse me. That change in applied volatility, change in delta notional with the change in applied volatility is the Vana effect. Vana is a second order Greek. And that's the curve that we do want to take a look at. All right, so let's check on price now. So for SPX, price is right around $45.56 right here. That's $45.56 right at the bottom of the curve. So what this means if price continues to increase, market makers will need to sell futures to hedge their delta exposure. This is typical of a positive gamma environment where market makers have to trade against price. This tends to slow down price, subdue or decrease volatility. On the other hand, if price starts to drop down towards $4,500, market makers will need to sell futures to hedge their delta exposure and that will tend to increase or enhance volatility. Right now, SPX is trading right around the bottom of the curve. Let's check on SPI, pretty similar curve. SPI trading right around $455, right around the absolute gamma strike, also near the bottom of the curve, and then for QQQ, right around the $390 call wall, right at the bottom of the curve. Alright, so that's the Vantel model for the SMB500 and the NASDAQ. Alright, let's take a look at some setups now. Alright, the first thing that I want to look at is options trades. I want to see what options traders are doing today. This chart is showing the hero signal, hedging impact real-time options. This comes from Spot Gamma. It is available to Spot Gamma subscribers. So this chart is showing price for SPX with the white line and the hero signal with the purple line. Hero is hedging impact real-time options. What the hero signal is showing is options trades and market maker hedging activity for a combined signal for SPX, SPI, XSP, and ES futures, all combined into one signal. So when traders trade options in all of these instruments, market makers hedge those trades with futures, typically ES futures, and that activity is shown here and it is a key driver of price action in the SMB500 and many stocks that we'll see. All right, let's take a closer look at this chart. I'm going to zoom in and I'm looking at a setup from this morning and just right around between 9.50 and 10.00 a.m., traders started taking positive delta positions and price responded higher, pretty choppy, but overall in an uptrend. All right, let's take a closer look and see exactly what traders were doing. So I'm going to separate outputs and calls. This purple line is combining put and call trades into one signal. I can separate outputs and calls and this adds some clarity to the picture here. So just after 9.50, traders started buying calls. Put line pretty flat, so the call line, sorry about that, nothing I did. I'm still trying to work this out. All right, so the orange line is showing calls. When the orange line is rising, this means that traders are buying calls, market makers sell the calls and they have to buy futures to hedge their delta exposure. So separating outputs and calls provides more clarity to this setup. Traders started buying calls right around 9.50, not doing much with puts, and price responded higher. All right, let's go take a look at Bookmap and we'll identify the signals in Bookmap for that move higher. Let's zoom in. So we know that traders were buying calls. ES makes a double bottom just above the 4.54 put wall. Sometimes setups are more clear than others, but this one, there were definitely some clues here in Bookmap. First of all, the double bottom. The volume dots are showing market buy minus sell. Magenta dots indicate there are more sellers than buyers. Green volume dots indicate more buyers than sellers. So you can see at the bottom here, this double bottom, there were aggressive sellers down to that level. The heatmap is showing a history of the limit orders in the order book. So buyers down at this level, just around between 4.55, 4.56, aggressive buyers start to come in as traders were buying calls. Market makers were selling the calls and buying futures to hedge their delta exposure. As price starts moving higher, buy stock orders help to fuel the move higher. That's shown by the rising yellow line. Also these on-chart indicators. These are not large numbers. Then ES makes a higher low. Again, the shift in order flow. Magenta volume dots on the way down. Sell stop orders, sell stop run down. Then aggressive buyers start to come in. Alright, so not a lot of range in the S&P 500 today, but the signal was pretty clear. Definitely a hero with call buyers coming in. Let's take a look at NASDAQ. Let's go take a look first of all at hero. In hero, I'm going to look at a combined signal for NDX and QQQ. Let's zoom in on this. I'm going to focus on this morning's setup. The call buyers came in a little bit earlier on the NASDAQ. So traders were buying calls. They started selling puts too. And that helped to launch NASDAQ higher just around 9.35, 9.36. Sorry about that. Let's go take a look at book map. Order flow here in book map is pretty clear. Aggressive sellers on the way down. Magenta volume dots. Aggressive buyers start to come in. A little bit of liquidity here in the order book. And then price starts to make. Higher lows. Multiple tests of VWAP. That's this line right here. The light blue line. Multiple tests of VWAP. Good entry points for long. And it looks like there were some large traders coming in with iceberg orders as well. That's shown by the rising light blue line. So traders were buying calls in QQQ and NDX. Market makers were selling the calls. They had to buy in QQ futures to edge their delta exposure. There were also aggressive buyers come in with multiple entry points at VWAP for long this morning. Let's take a look at one other thing in Hero. There's a new signal here in Hero. This is a combined signal for the stocks known as the Magnificent 7. These stocks are key drivers of the SMB500 and NASDAQ. They make up a large portion of both the SMB500 and especially the NASDAQ 100. Zoom in on this. So there's that 935 reversal higher. Separate outputs and calls. 935. Traders start aggressively buying calls shown by the rising orange line. And then just a few minutes later, a couple minutes later, they start selling puts. So for stock when traders buy calls, market makers sell the calls and they have to buy stock to edge their delta exposure. So that's the NASDAQ. Typically in a positive GAM environment, there are often better trades, better plays in single stocks than the SMB500 and NASDAQ. So let's take a look at a couple of stocks today. First of all, Amazon. Amazon up today on reports of good Black Friday sales. Zoom in on this. Let's see what traders are doing. So it took a little while this morning, but traders started buying calls. Show them by the rising orange line. Let's go back to the total signal. Sorry about that. Kind of a choppy day here. Quick move higher. Sharp move lower. Move higher. Hero signal overall levels off and price levels off as well. Let's go take a look at... Excuse me. Go to book map. Take a look at Amazon. So choppy day in Amazon, move higher. Also mostly green volume dots showing aggressive buyers. We can take a look at CVD, cumulative volume delta in the sub chart. It's been rising all day. So overall, traders taking positive delta positions as well as aggressive buyers buying Amazon shares. Let's take a look at Meta. A bullish setup earlier today. Let's go take a look at Hero. Go to Meta. So earlier today, let's just zoom in on this. Call buyers were driving price higher. Rising orange line. Traders were buying calls at the wrong tool. Market makers were selling the calls and they had to buy stock to hedge their delta exposure up until about 12.31 o'clock. Traders weren't doing much with puts and as the call buyers took their foot off the gas price started to consolidate. Zoom out. Now traders have started selling calls also buying puts more aggressively and prices moving lower. Note the floor alert that came in just before this quick drop lower. Let's go back to book map. This might have been, let's just take a look at stock. You don't see that sharp drop in Microsoft. This might have been news specific to Meta. I don't know. I'll check later. Unless somebody knows. Does anybody know anything about news on Meta? Alright, there's Meta. A bullish morning. Looks like, again, potentially some some negative news. No, I don't see anything. Alright, the next NVIDIA. Alright, so the buyers are back for NVIDIA. Green volume dots showing a lot of aggressive buyers today. Let's take a look and see what options traders are doing. Alright, so an NVIDIA, the call buyers are back. Note the timely floor alert here. So traders are, sorry about that. This really makes it difficult to present. Alright, so traders are buying calls and selling puts. That's shown by the rising orange line, positive notion of value, and also by the rising blue line and the positive notion of value. So they're buying calls and selling puts in an NVIDIA that's very bullish. When both lines are moving in the same direction, spot gamma has indicated that is a very powerful directional signal. Let's go back to book map. Very bullish day in NVIDIA. Deep pullback around 11-11-30 to the 479 level. Back to hero. And I don't see any spot gamma levels in play for today. Back to book map. Primary target for the day, pretty clear here in book map is the high liquidity at 485. Note hell. Traders come in with their limit seller orders right at the cash open. Leave those orders, typically leave those orders in the order book until they're filled. And that was the primary target for today. Also some liquidity at 482 and 483, at 484. But note how the liquidity is darker and brighter, deeper, orange-red at 485, indicating high liquidity at that level, acting as a magnet for price. Does anyone have any stocks they want me to take a look at? If not, let's circle back to, first of all, the SB 500. Still chopping in a narrow range. Check NASDAQ. Also in a pretty narrow range going back to the 390-16000 level. Alright, let's take a look at... Nicky, hello, welcome. Wants to look at VXX. I don't have that in book map, but let's check it in spot gamma in Hero. Alright, so pretty choppy here in VXX. Not a lot of... Not a lot of notional value. We can separate outputs and calls. So traders are buying calls and buying puts. Put buyers more aggressive. That's shown by the falling blue line, negative notional value there. Alright, Nicky wants to look at Palantir. We'll take a look at that. And then Vhoo, we'll get to Tesla next. Palantir. Slightly positive notional value. Traders are buying calls, also buying puts. Net 1.75 million positive. Positive notional value. Most of that coming in just a few minutes after the cash open. And that was helped to fuel the move from around 1870 to 1960, 1940. Alright, Vhoo, let's take a look at Tesla now. Tesla is one of the stocks that I watch and trade on a regular basis. Bullish day here in Tesla. Let's zoom in on this. Note the support at the 232.50 hedge wall. Let's see what traders have been doing today in Tesla. So net, they are buying calls and selling puts. Both positive notional value, both positive delta. Let's go take a look at book map. So far today, Tesla turned it up. Excuse me. Remember 232.50 was the hedge wall. Price reversed higher at that level. And a lot of aggressive sellers coming in. Right around 10.30. Showed by the shift from green volume dots to magenta volume dots. So options traders are really helping to fuel the move higher in Tesla. Let's go back to hero. And right around 115 options traders taking their foot off the gas. And now Tesla is consolidating, starting to move lower it looks like. Alright, Penny Pinscher wants to take a look at PayPal. Let's do that. So there's PayPal. Note 57 is the call wall. And price did not quite make it up to that level. So found resistance just below that level. Notional value is positive today. So traders are buying calls, selling puts. A couple of flow alerts. Here this one just a couple of minutes after the cash open. Another one right after 10.30. Alright, so there you go. Penny Pinscher there's PayPal. The stocks that I generally follow here in my watch list are Large CapTech, Magnificent 7, and a few other stocks. Let's just scan through those. See if we see anything interesting. Not much in Apple. AMD has been pretty strong after the Nvidia earnings report last week. There was some weakness in Nvidia. And it looks like traders may have been rotating out of Nvidia into AMD. So far today, AMD is rising slightly. Hero showing positive delta, positive notional value. Amazon we've already looked at. Google not much going on. A little bit of a move lower. Negative notional value. Traders taking negative delta positions. Microsoft continues higher. Finding a resistance at the 380 call wall, Key Gamma Strike. Let's go take a look at Bookman. We'll take a look at Microsoft. So there's the 380 call wall, Key Gamma Strike. Note all the liquidity at that level. And there were some orders in the order book before the cash open. More came in, quite a bit more came in at the cash open. Stated in the order book until they were filled. And that was the clear price target. Nice uptrend in Microsoft this morning. Deeper pullbacks just below VWAP. This was a really good entry here right around 1115, 1130. For that final move higher up into that liquidity at the call wall. Let's go back to Hero. Let's zoom in a little bit. These straight lines here, large block orders, institutional order, tend to kind of subdue the chart, flatten out the previous. So not a lot of clarity here in Hero for Microsoft. Take a look at Netflix. Another bullish day in Netflix, nothing new. A couple of very timely flow alerts. What traders are doing. So earlier today, traders were buying calls. That's shown by the rising orange line, also selling puts. Shown by the rising blue line. Sorry about that. We'll zoom out and we'll just keep the total signal here. Very typical pattern, aggressive options traders in the morning. Here they shut it off pretty quickly. Try that one more time. Options traders take their foot off the gas pretty early. 1015 and price consolidates. Let's go to book map. Take a look at Netflix. There's that morning move fires. Traders were aggressively buying calls and selling puts. Alright, so some good trading opportunities in stocks this morning. Especially Meta Microsoft, Netflix, NVIDIA, Tesla. Let's check on the S&P 500. Still grinding around the 455. Absolute gamma strike. Check on Nasdaq. And the who and penny pincher you're welcome. Alright, Nasdaq also stuck around that cluster of levels. So the question now, that level that acted as resistance, will that become support? And Nicky, you're welcome. And for those of you who posted stocks, thank you for participating. There's not a lot to look at here in these indices, so it helps to, and I'm glad I can show you these stocks. Let's see what options traders are doing. Let's go back. S&P 500. So for the afternoon, the hero signal pretty flat. Options traders not really committing one way or another. Nasdaq, a little bit more bearish. Let's check the magnificent seven. A little bit more clear here. Starting to take negative delta positions. Alright, Nicky wants to take a look at the sentiment for next month. So I'll take a look at what I think you're asking. First of all, Bannatech wants to take a look at coin and Mera. Bitcoin proxies. So let's start with coin. Alright, there's an interesting hero chart. Note that 120 is the call wall key gamma strike. And traders were taking positive delta positions. And price finds resistance at 120 as traders take their foot off the gas. There's coin. Take a look at Mera. And a little bit more choppy here. And Mera, note that 12 is the call wall key gamma strike. And you're welcome. Alright, Nicky, let's take a look at sentiment. We may not be able to get it on that chart. We'll go over here. Alright, this is what I believe you may be asking about. What this is, is the delta notional at different expirations. This is for a combined S&P 500 NASDAQ and Russell 2000. This is showing delta notional at expirations starting from today, all the way out to the middle of next year. There's one obvious expiration on this chart. This is the December expiration. What the orange bar is showing, call delta notional. Blue bar is showing put delta notional. First of all, December is a very large expiration. It may be the largest of the year. And this is a very heavily call dominated options expiration coming up in December. I'll talk about that more as that expiration approaches. But right now, looking like the December expiration is very, very call dominated. Again, I'll talk more about this. Alright, Nicky, I don't understand your question. Big red bar. I'll talk more about this later. My time is up for today. So the orange bar, all it means for right now is that it is call dominated. And there's some typical behavior around a call dominated expiration that I'll talk about in the upcoming days. Alright, so my time is up. I want to thank everyone for watching. Thank you very much for your questions and comments. I always appreciate that. Everyone have a great evening and I will see you tomorrow. Thanks again. Bye.