 This is Covering the Spread, part of the FanDuel podcast network. Time to wrap up week number 13 in the NFL on a very interesting note because we got the Buccaneers and Saints pretty tight spread for tonight. We're gonna break down our thoughts on that spread, let you know where we're seeing some valued FanDuel sportsbook and get you ready for Monday night by talking to Tom Vecchio. This is Covering the Spread right here on the FanDuel podcast network and numberfire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for numberfire.com. Joined here as mentioned by Tom Vecchio. Check him out on Twitter at DFS underscore Tom Ryan Williams at the Bears game yesterday. So he's capitulating to Aaron Rodgers, I assume. Either way, Ryan will back with us on Thursday to break down the full NFL week 14 slate. But Tom, thank you for stepping in for today. How you doing? I'm doing good. Thanks for having me back. It was a good weekend. It's certainly shaping up to be a very interesting game tonight. I'm ready to go. Yeah, I'm excited about this one. I have a box three and a half ticket. It's moved against me. Based on the way this year has gone, maybe that's a good omen because it's been very odd. Got a couple points in movement on the cheese. Bengals over, that one pushed. Got some decent movement on Giants Moneyline. That one pushed. It's been a weird week. So I'm excited to see how this one plays out. I'm going to wind up somehow pushing three and a half. I don't, that's not possible, but we're going to find a way. It just feels like destiny at this point. We'll talk about that market movement. Talk about the traditional markets and the player props in this game. In just a bit, but first, a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast because we have more World Cup coverage coming on this week. Ed Fang will be on to break down what his numbers are saying about this next round of the World Cup. Break down his numbers there. We'll talk about NFL week number 14 with Ryan, of course, and get you set for all that right here on the Covering the Spread podcast feed and over on the Fandall YouTube page. Looking to get more out of this NFL season? Well, now is the perfect time to download Fandall, America's number one sports book because new customers get a no sweat first bet up to $1,000. That's three bets back if your first bet doesn't win. Just download the Fandall Sports Book app. It's safe, secure, and super easy to use that you can bet on everything, from the money line to touchdown scores to over under yards plus Fandall, even once you combine your bets for a chance at a bigger payday, but the same game parlays. So don't miss a chance to get your no sweat first bet up to $1,000 in free bets when you join Fandall. Make every moment more with Fandall and official sports betting partner of the NFL. Must be 21 plus in select states, first online, a real money wager only. Refund issued is not withdrawable free bets that expired 14 days. Restrictions applies to your terms at sportsbook.fandall.com. Gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit fandall.com slash RG in Arizona 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text to acceptify 3-3-4-2 in Connecticut 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Indiana 1-800-9 with it in Kansas, Wyoming 1-800-522-4700 in Kansas cast gamblinghelp.com in Louisiana 1-877-770-STEP in Maryland. Hey, it's on Maryland, mdgamblinghelp.org in New York 1-877-8 Hope and Why or text Hope and Why or in West Virginia, go to 1-800-GAMBLER.NET. Let's dig into this game now, Tom. Before we talk about the actual markets here, I did want to talk to you from a top-down perspective. Got the Saints at the Bucks, pretty big NFC South game for the Buccaneers at least. What's your overall view of this game? Well, first off, I want to say you crushed that ad read, especially at the ending there, because I've done that same ad read in the same ending countless times for us. It's a lot to get through, but- I didn't read through it beforehand. It was like surprised to see Maryland there. I was like, oh, oh, that's new. Okay, we're adding a new state here. I also don't do it live. So if I mess up, I can just stop and go back and re-record things. It's actually a cool party trick. Like people be like, oh, what do you do for your job? I'm gonna go and talk. And they're like, oh, let's hear your podcast voice. And I'm like, okay. The only thing I can do as like a podcast voice is read the gambling help numbers, which is probably weird, but maybe it's helpful for someone. So I don't know. The intro, the outro, like that is, I had to like memorize perfectly down pat with everything. Yeah, so I just saw people with the gambling help lines. I mean, again, it can serve two purposes. Maybe someone needs those lines, that's great. That's what they're there for. And it can get me out without having to think of something on the fly. It's great. Huge party help. But back to tonight's game. Like you said, this is an important matchup for the Bucks. So, you know, moving forward for them to win the division, like their path looks pretty clear, especially because they end the season playing the Falcons and the Panthers. So like I see this as kind of like a no nonsense game, you know, bad game last week against the Browns. They need to rebound. So a slower, you know, controlled offense, just like not taking any risks, just like do the right thing to win this game because they needed to win the division. You know, they don't need to blow them out. They don't need to run up the score. They just need to win this game. So that's how I'm looking at it. Like we always try and take, at least at this point in the season, I try and take a step back and say, okay, we need to start looking at things from like a real life football perspective. Like who actually has motivation to win? What do they need to do? Because those are the teams that I want to kind of lean on in certain circumstances. And this would be a clear one because if they secure this, they're in a pretty good spot to win the division. So like no messing around, get it done, get out there, put up some points. Their defense has been super solid this year. Go with that. If they lose, if the Bucks lose, they would have a five and seven record. The Falcons and the Saints would both be five and eight. So it could be a five and seven with two teams of five and eight directly behind them. The Panthers are four and eight. So lurking right there as well. This has the potentially the most hilarious division of all time, but I agree with you. So I think that one thing that you touched on was disappointment last week for the Buccaneers because when I look at my numbers relative to expectation, that was their worst game since week three, I believe, by a decent margin because they were, there was some wind in that game. Maybe that played a role, but like I thought they'd be in a pretty good spot there against the Browns and they came out completely flat. Mike Evans looked weird. I don't know. I don't know the right way to like say that, but like he looked odd. It didn't look like they were clipping along. And so that matters. And that is in my numbers. Their underperformance last week does ding them by my numbers, but I still see a lot of value in the Bucks here. Three point favorites, especially once you're getting now a push on three, which again, I had a three and a half, so whatever. But you're getting a push on three. Total is 41 and a half. You think that they are gonna try to keep this game controlled, sounds like potentially try to keep it low scoring. So I've got Bucks minus three based on where the market currently stands. What's your read on the more traditional markets here? I would also lean with the Bucks on this one. The overrunner, I think, I've been leaning on a ton of wonders this year. And I know a lot of people will go back and look at the Bucks Saints matchup since Brady has been there. And they'll be like, oh, you know, the Bucks lost that game nine, nothing. They also lost that game, you know, 38 to three, like all these super low scoring games and they're cherry picking those, but they're leaving out the games where, you know, there's like 57 total points or there's like 63 total points and they're like, oh, nine, nothing and 38 to three, the Bucks can't score against the Saints. Well, it's like, well, the other games that they did score just as many points and Brady's going for like 300 yards and multiple touchdowns. So I don't like cherry picking like previous stats just to validate my point for today's game. But if we look throughout this season, at least the Bucks and the Saints are both leaning heavily towards the under, at least the Bucks are. They're two and nine against the under this year and combined with the feelings that I have for this from a real life football perspective, I would certainly lean on the under. The question I have for you is, you said you have them at three and a half, would you go to three as well? No, I don't typically do that unless, unless I feel like the market is actually wrong here, it's possible I'm wrong. And I don't want to double down when I'm wrong. And especially with the moving from three and a half to three, that's an impactful move. And you know, Vita Vaya, I think he's gonna play. He's questionable. He got into limited practice this week. That means I'm assuming he'll play. Maybe I'm misreading that situation. Antoine Winsfield is not gonna play. Maybe I'm undervaluing him, stuff like that. So I have a decent edge on three because I have this as 5.68 in one model and 4.71 in the other. That's a pretty good amount where I was okay taking it at three and a half. Talked about the show there. But now getting it at three, it's like, if you haven't bet it yet, I would take it. I feel good enough about my numbers to say, if you have not bet it yet and want action on this game, I'd be very comfortable taking the three. I just don't want to double down myself when I potentially have misread this and potentially double my losings on a game that I may have potentially misread. Right. And I also think that we have to take into account, like the Bucks defense is actually really good. Yeah. Both offenses are bad. And I think that the range of outcomes that we've seen from Andy Dallin and the Saints offense overall has been super inconsistent. They went through that stretch against the Seahawks, the Bengals, the Cardinals and the Raiders where they actually put up like some good points. Right. They like Andy Dallin throwing for 300 plus yards in one of those games, going for multiple touchdowns. Like, okay, they actually have like a competent offense. And then in the past few weeks, it's been terrible. And people are calling for James Winston to get in there because they have to change something. You know, at least the deep ball for like Priscilla Lave could be there with Winston. So due to that variance and due to the fact that both offenses are in the bottom 10 of the league for the fewest points scored, I would lean on the under. Not because of the past results in these Bucks Saints, not cherry picking those. I'm looking at this year specifically. So trends are like super touchy for me because you can kind of find whatever you want to fit whatever narrative you're trying to push. So I don't go back three, four years but like, oh, it was a prime time game to hit the under. So that means we have to hit the under today. It's like, no, both offenses are bad this season. That reminds me. I bet on Tom Narrative in the sleepy Tom Narrative. Oh, geez. The fact that it's a night game and he's older. Yeah, it's sleepy Tom Narrative. I'm more on, I forgot about that, you know? Just, you know, let's, I would lay, you know, Saints minus 16 now at this point because I just realized sleepy Tom Narrative is in play. This is not actual analysis. I feel the need to make that clear. I'm not actually saying this, but now you talked about, you said lean. Would you actually bet these or is it more just to lean for you? No, I would actually bet the Bucks at minus three now that it's moved past three and a half. Again, these are all, you know, last night when we were, you know, doing a little prep for the show, like it was at three and a half. And obviously the key number changing those are very important things. Certainly like three a lot better than three and a half. So, you know, between now and the, between now and game time, I'll probably be on the Bucks at three. Yeah. It's also only minus one away to Fandal on the three. So that's intriguing, but it's been steady at one away. It's like, don't think it'll move more unless we get a weird situation. Like that Raiders Chargers game yesterday, like it got insane. How much things move towards the Raiders late in that one. We could see that again here towards the Saints, but I've pretty, I doubt that quite a bit. Let's talk to you about some player props. We don't have any rushing props posted for Leonard Fournet and Rashad White. I'm assuming that's because Fournet is still listed as questionable. He's probably going to play, but I didn't want to talk to you, Tom, because by the time people listen to this, they may be up. So I want to get your overall read. What do you think this backfield looks like with Fournet and White both healthy and any other Bucks props you like for tonight? So the Fournet White situation is really interesting because White has really started to pop over the past few weeks. Obviously Leonard Fournet hasn't been healthy. So initially I would lean towards and go with once they're posted probably Fournet unders because White has been so strong. I also think it depends on the game script on ultimately how much Fournet will be used because if this does turn into a blowout because the Bucks defense is great and the Saints offense is terrible, they will simply rest Fournet because again, taking a step back and looking at it from a real life football perspective, they're gonna want him healthy to close out the season. They're not gonna want to push him when he's coming back from an injury and Rashad White has been actually good. So if I'm assuming Fournet's number is gonna be in the 50s or 60s for his rushing prop, probably somewhere around there. I would bet it's a little bit lower just because they've been selling efficient running the ball this year and there is the possibility of a split. So I would bet it opens up a little bit lower, but... Yeah, I mean, I think like let's say 45. Okay. I don't know. I think that there will be, actually I don't even know if they'll post Fournet honestly but I think they'll be pretty low because he's coming off an injury and because we have this potential for a split. Okay, so 45, let's call it 45 and a half. I would still lean with the under just because of how bad they're a super high pass rate team and this is one of the things I've been going with a lot this year are great passing attempts. They weren't posted the last night, they got posted this morning, it's at 40 and a half. Outside of this game against the Seahawks a couple weeks ago, you look back at his game lock and he is routinely passing over 40 attempts, almost every single game at a very high volume just because they're one of the highest pass rate teams in the league. So Fournet not being fully healthy has been leaning on his unders. Rashad White I'd be interested in maybe combined rushing plus receiving prop. And then Brady over passing attempts. 40 and a half is certainly a lot, but the Saints are like bottom half, bottom 10 in the league or so, they're bottom 14th, we're the 14th most receiving the largest wide receiver. So I think this is an exploitable spot for the passing offense. Yeah, I think that with the Lenny ones, I'd be looking specific, so I tend to live in the rushing plus receiving market because I want the multiple paths to an either an over or an under. With the Lenny one I'd stick specifically to the rushing because it seems like they do like him as a pass catcher. And in that game where he and Rashad White were both playing, that Seattle game, White didn't have a target. I believe he ran a decent number of routes, but not like a ton. I think that if they were to use Lenny, I feel like they'd be more likely to do that as a pass catcher as weird as that may sound. He's actually not been bad in that realm this year. He's been better there than as a rusher. So I would look specifically at the rushing yardage number for Fournet and end that with White. You could potentially look at the rushing yardage on the same thought process, but I also still do like the multiple paths to an over. So I would go rushing plus receiving with him who are looking at him over with Lenny specifically. I'm looking rushing specifically under the thought process. He could be used to kind of like that. Nickel third down back. Let's flip over and talk about the Saints here quick because they're a bit more steady. They struggled though, and that's kind of the key issue. So we know kind of who's getting the ball, but they also have not been good. So any props standing out for you on the same side? That would be Camero over 26 and a half receiving yards. Just because I'm expecting the Bucks to be in control of this game, it should set up for a positive passing game script. His usage has been, I don't know if inconsistent is even the right word this year, like to put it how inconsistent he's been used on a week to week basis where he looks great some weeks, he looks horrible. Their offense looks horrible some weeks. They simply have to get him involved because he's arguably still their best player on offense. And with the Bucks bringing a good amount of pressure, I expect Dalton to have to get the ball out quickly. So Camero over 26 and a half. This is a prop that hopefully Camero could probably get to in the first half alone. At least if they have some competency on offense. So I like that. I will touch on Mike Evans. If we flip back real quick, over 16 and a half receiving yards, I think that's interesting for multiple reasons. There's obviously this whole narrative going up against March on Lattimore and he struggles against him. Like I'm of the belief that quarterbacks try to keep their star wide receivers happy. And Mike Evans has less than 50 yards in three straight games. He does have a TD since week three. And obviously like I say this with a little bit of Jess because like we all know the narrative like the squeaky wheel narrative that like wide receivers are like, certainly elite wide receivers are like a unique breed in the NFL. And they have big egos, they want the ball. But Mike Evans is playing a big role for them. And he has been really underproducing as you mentioned at the start of it against the Browns. Like he didn't look like himself. He really has been putting up, big numbers in recent weeks. So I love the matchup because the Saints are so bad against wide receivers. Like I said, allowing the 14th most receiving yards. But going up against Latin more like there's a factor here that we have to bring into account that like, there's what like a more than a 5% chance or more than, I don't know, 1% chance that he gets ejected. Then he gets ejected. Like that's not something I normally have to account for a handicap. So I do believe that like Brady should getting involved. He has a 20.5% target share and he has 36.4% in air yards market share among the bucks. Like those are awesome numbers. 18% red zone target share. And he's just not getting involved. Right. Well, I think the important thing too is that like Latin more is not fully healthy. So like if it's a fully healthy March on Latin more facing Mike Evans, that's one thing. But Latin more has not played since week five. I think he's going to play tonight cause you did get in three limited sessions throughout this week. But that also means he was not full. He is listed as questionable. Those things are both negatives and he hasn't played since week five. So there are a lot of negatives against March on Latin more here that are downgrading him from what he typically would be. I think that that's enough where you look at the Mike Evans number. And if you want to bet Mike Evans, I bet it before we get news about March on Latin more cause like he could be ruled out. That could happen. That's in the range of hours. Obviously him not playing recently. That's certainly within, but it's just, it's within like it's feeding into multiple things. Like they need to have, you know, one of their or, you know, their second best or their number one receipt or obviously between him and God when they need to have more involved and he has been producing as of late. This is a great matchup because they're secondary is terrible. Outside of the lot, the Latin more news, even if he was fully healthy, like this is still a good matchup. Can we account for Latin more being a great shutdown corner and having this history of them, you know, potentially getting ejected? Yes, I think we have to actually factor that in for the first time, something that don't normally do for cornerback wide receiver matchups. I feel like they got to work that out. Like let's just talk it out. Let's, let's, you know, have a little sit down. Let's figure this out. But I don't, it's, it's really weird for sure. Now the Camara one while we're talking has moved to 28 and a half for receiving yards. Is that high enough where you're off? Because I feel like there's still value there based on what he's been doing. The one counterpoint with Mark Ingram likely back for this game. Maybe you get worried, but I feel like that'd be more of like an early down grinder kind of situation for Ingram versus a taking past catching work out of Camara's hands. I still think 28 and a half is fine. Yeah, I would, 30 is probably the line for me. Sure, okay. I mean, opening up at 26 and moving at 30 would be a pretty big jump. Yeah. But at 28 and a half, I would certainly still go there. It's sitting a minus, what is it? Minus one, 13. Yeah. Yeah, I would still go with over 28 and a half. Yeah, just. I much prefer it at 26, but. Yeah, just be picky. You know, once you pull up your sports book, if it's moved higher than that, be picky. But 28 and a half, I think that's still a fine number. Okay, touchdown props. I have an unhinged one that I'll ask you about, but I wanna ask you about yours first. I think I'm gonna take it, can I take a guess? Yeah. Adam Troutman. No, what's he at? He's at plus, I saw him at plus 400 last night. Joanne Johnson's ruled out. No, we're at double that. Oh, you're gonna K.Dotten is my guess? No. Oh man. Higher longer than that. Well, not Kyle Rudolph. No, gosh, no, I respect myself, Tom. Come on. I know it's December. We got the Rudolph narrative in play, but no. Not Geo, but no, I mean. No. Hit me with it then. Rashid Shahid is eight to one. Rashid Shahid has played 49% and 53% of the snaps to pass two games for the Saints. He is a deep ball kind of guy and get down the field. I think I'd probably rather go 36 to one first touchdown for Rashid Shahid. I live in Rhode Island, which means I bet at a monopolized sports book and the monopolized sports book, which hates customers, does not even offer Rashid Shahid touchdown props. And I'm very sad about this. I want, and I don't want to drive to Connecticut. Sorry, Tom, I don't want to drive to Connecticut. So I'm gonna live vicariously through you. Can I, can I tempt you into a Rashid Shahid anytime touched on eight to one or first touchdown 36 to one for tonight? Eight to one, absolutely. We had the first touchdown, what was it again? It was the Arizona game. Yeah. Yeah, 53 yard bomb. Right, right, right. So I mean, yeah, if he's that deep ball threat opposite Chris Alave, that's certainly gonna be in play. And again, first touchdown, no. That's obviously just like a kind of like a lottery ticket dart throw, which is certainly fine. But Rashid Shahid for eight to one, I could certainly be on board with that. Okay. Which ones are you looking at? Because I think that one, like I said, is a little bit unhinged. Right. Adam Troutman has now moved to plus 480. It was 400 last night. I think it's good. Joanne Johnson has been ruled out. Troutman should be the starting tight end for them. The books are pretty good against tight ends, but it should still be a passing, a pass catching role. And Troutman's been with them for a few years. We know they at least liked to use him in a red zone, get him red zone targets. I specifically remember things that came from last year, the year before they were at Philadelphia. He brought in a touchdown. So like there is some usage for him in the red zone within the Saints offense. Again, you can make the case for Mike Evans at plus now, what plus 155 is certainly okay. Outside of that, I'm not seeing a whole lot that I love. Godwin is at plus 180, which I think is a pretty big number, especially for plus 180 for a receiver that has the highest market share on the team is always interesting. Normally we see that line around plus 110. I mean, the Vante Adams yesterday was like minus 140 for a touchdown. But anytime you get plus 180 on a dominant receiver in the offense in a good matchup, it is a spot that I'm pretty comfortable going. With the Evans one, would you prefer the anytime touchdown at plus 155, or would you prefer to go with the receiving yardage number at 60 and a half? Saying this now without the Latin War news, receiving or the touchdown? I would probably go receiving, just because receiving he has to get there independent of the game script. I also prefer receiving yards over total receptions because you can get receiving yards literally in one play. Especially with him, like you're getting downfield low. That's what you're buying. Right, he has a 13.2 A dot, he has a 36.4% of yardage for the box. So he can get 60 plus yards on literally one reception. He can't get five receptions on one reception. It sounds like you prefer Godwin over Evans for the anytime touchdown. Right now they're receiving Godwin at plus 180. I'll certainly take him at plus 180. Evans over receiving. Troutman, little sprinkle on him at plus 480 now. And no Shaheed, rude. Well, I might have to now just because I can take that eight to one and since you can't bet it, like that. Yeah, I'm gonna live through you. I'm not mad. They don't offer anything longer than Brady at plus 850 and it's like, why am I here? Brady's plus is 17 to one. Yeah, I'm not doing that anyway. But I think, yeah, it's a weird, anyway, I need to move. I'm moving, so that'll help, but we'll figure that on later on. Any other things you want to note from this game, Tom, as far as props to stand out to you? You know, kicker props are always pretty interesting just because especially in prime time games, we do see a lot of field goals. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that the Tampa Bay defense scores the touchdown tonight as well. Okay, Tampa Bay defense touchdown is plus 850 longer than Rashid Shaheed. Very disappointing that they are putting Shaheed shorter than that. Anyway, that is Tom Vecchio. Check him out on Twitter at DFS underscore Tom. You can check out Tom doing a lot of NBA work over on Number Fire and doing the Daily ISO, our Daily Fantasy Basketball podcast over on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast. We're gonna have more Tom on the show talk. NBA props once NFL slows down a bit. So Tom will be hearing more from you later on, but good luck for you tonight. Enjoy the football, enjoy the basketball. We'll talk to you once again soon. Thanks for having me. All right, check out Tom again on Twitter at DFS underscore Tom. I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis. Want to thank you all for tuning in. Do not forget to subscribe to covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts or are over on the Fandall YouTube page. Back once again tomorrow to break down what my numbers are saying by NFL week number 14. This has been covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network.