 and this was an interesting article about from JP Morgan. And then we may zoom in a little bit which is talking about, actually, in fact, I've got the article here, right? So I'll zoom in a bit and it says, heading into New Year's, he's Morgan Stanley's economist. And in fact, the headline again, is a bit, you know, again, misleading. This is the reason why you kind of have to read the whole article, a 2023 market surprise pounds sterling enters a bull market against the euro and the dollar, right? So it's asking a question, right? Potentially says, we think a bullish scenario for the UK and his currency could come as a surprise to many in 2023 and it would, right? That's that's a fact because the consensus is that the is that the the pound should actually head lower. And I'm just going to read, you know, a couple of paragraphs. So it talks about heading into the New Year's, he's Morgan Stanley's economist aligned with the consensus that expect in expecting, sorry, the UK economy to suffer a torrid 2023. So that's the consensus, right? This is what I've been saying. You know, even though price has been doing something different, I'm going to get on to that in a sec because it does mention, you know, price further down. And indeed, they expect UK growth to be the worst among the G 10 and even amongst emerging markets. So that tells you how bad things are. Look at the chart, right? UK, Eurozone, Sweden, look at that terrible Australia actually looking to grow quite a bit in the US as well, Switzerland. So the bar is therefore set incredibly low for an upside growth surprise that would challenge consensus and offer sterling a supportive domestic narrative, right? So basically, all that saying is that if, you know, there are there's the data comes out and it surprises to the upside. Yeah, if GDP data comes out, and, you know, let's say, for example, there's a, you know, everyone's expecting contraction and all of a sudden, you know, they may be flat line or even this positive growth, then that is going to not only support the pound, but it's going to massively support the pound. But there's a difference between, between, you know, predictions and forecasts, right? Nobody knows, you know, prediction predictions is, you know, borderline certainty. I predict that the pound is going to go here, you know, and certain you don't want to deal with predictions and certainty, because nothing certain. So forecasts and go with the consensus, especially when you're talking about banks, we talk about retail traders, you know, retail traders, you want to kind of do the opposite to what retail do typically, not saying that retail will never write, just like the banks are always never right either. But at the same time, you always typically want to go with consensus. And it's just telling you that, you know, if you didn't read the headline, if you only read the headline, and you thought to yourself, well, you know, buying the pound, you know, and the pound started enters a bull market against the euro and the dollar, that would make it seem like, you know, you want to be a contrarian. But in fact, when you read the actual article, you know, it's not saying that at all. It's just saying that, you know, there is the potential for a surprise. Yes, as the bar is therefore set incredibly low for an upside growth surprise that would challenge consensus and offer sterling a supportive domestic narrative, a bearish outlook for the UK has pretty much been a consensus for the past few months. So anyone who's been had that bias like myself, not wrong, right? You're in good, we're in good company, right? We're in good company with Morgan Stanley. And remains so even as, even as the pound estates an impressive rally against the dollar in recent, in recent weeks, says wanting low G10 FX strategist at Morgan Stanley. And this is the, I guess the sentence, which he says, but Morgan Stanley strategy team thinks this rally was driven by a combination of positioning adjustment and a broad weakening of the dollar rather than a change in the fundamental view, right? You know, and that is a massive, you know, statement. This is really important. And I'm going to get onto this when we talk about pullbacks, right? Pullbacks. And the question was, you know, how deep does price need to pull back before you change your directional bias, right? And I'm going to, you know, I'm going to refer to this as well, right? So keep this in mind, that sentence. And the last really thing is just this is driving expectations for the UK economic underperformance, our expectations for an ongoing energy crisis to crimp growth and ensure inflation remains elevated, right? And again, I spoke about this last week, please go back to last week's, you know, talk, right? Go back to last week's talk, because in last week's talk, I said that what is the lesser of two evils? Yeah, I'm just going to summarize it. The lesser of two evils, what would you rather buy into a country that has high inflation, right, rising inflation, wait, inflation is still elevated. Yeah, actually, let me put this on the board. You can go back to last week's one, right? But question was, would you rather high inflation, yeah, and meaning that the central bank is hiking, but that's going to cause a contraction and recession, right? It's fast forwarding the recession, bringing forward the recession potentially, because they're hiking rates still, yeah? Would you rather do that? Remember, this is typically positive for a currency, if this is interest rates, right? This is in high inflation, right? High inflation, and this normally is not, right? So GDP contracting is typically not, yeah? Or, right, so that's scenario A, right, country A, or would you rather go with country B? Right? Where inflation is falling, yeah? So inflation is coming down, is lower, right? Maybe this is doing, you know, a trending higher, or just, you know, flatlining, or this one is going lower, right? Inflation is going lower, right? Interest rates, you know, are now, you know, being, you know, reduced and held, yeah? So, you know, let's do that as just a hold, right? And that's, you know, interest rates. But GDP, yeah, potentially could actually, and I'm not saying it will grow, but it, you know, it's, it may avoid a recession potentially in the future, or at least lag behind, you know, A when it comes to, you know, GDP, yeah? Which one are you, you know, are you likely to want to buy? And I'm going to ask that now. I'm going to ask that to everyone now. Keeping in mind, keeping in mind that the market is tends to be for, let's say tends to be, but usually is forward thinking, right? It's thinking six months, nine months into the future. Yeah, HP user, trading MK, John says B, that's exactly it. In the short term, it looks like, right, it looks like there's a divergence in interest rates, right? And there is, right? One is hiking and one is, you know, holding or reducing their rates, right? That is a divergence. But you also have the GDP potential divergence as well, right? And what we do know for sure, oh, it's spanked. Okay, how are you doing? Yes, spanked, right? And what you have, right? At some point, the narrative is going to change. And again, I was talking about this last week, yeah, it's going to change the GDP eventually inflation is going to come down if it went up globally, right? If it's going, it's going up globally and everyone else is, and everyone is suffering from high inflation. Yeah, brilliant. Cool. Everyone has to hike, which is what everyone did. But when inflation comes down, right? And if inflation comes down, it should come down in its showing signs that it is, yeah, then the euro are going to be in the same, then the pound are going to be in the same place and the UK are going to be in the same place when it comes to interest rate hikes because they don't have to hike as much, right? They're going to be holding rates and so are Europe and so are everyone else because Canada is doing that, right? Canada is doing it. Australia is doing it, right? They're not hiking as aggressively as, you know, the UK and or the European Central Bank, right? So then if all banks start to hold and, you know, start to ease up, right? Then what becomes the divergence? The next narrative becomes GDP, right? And who is likely to avoid a recession and who isn't, right? Who's likely to go into a recession first and who isn't? That becomes then the narrative because it becomes growth and, you know, international investors don't want to invest in somewhere that is not growing. Yeah, then it becomes again the dog with the lease fees and you start to look towards GDP as the marker of, you know, potential currency strength. That is the game plan. That has to be the game plan. And again, this is all, you know, here, right? So I, where is it now? Right? So this was, this was, oh, this is ECB one, sorry, right? But this basically lends, we're talking about the pound, but the analysis is still saying this is from ING, right? So it talks about, you know, the ECB expects only a short and shadow recession forecasting Eurozone growth to come in at 0.5 in 2023 and 1.9 2024. This is much more optimistic than our own growth forecast, which basically means that they don't think that, you know, that's going to grow that much, right? And here it says, needless to say that with still relatively optimistic outlook, the risk increases that the ECB pushes the Eurozone economy further into recession, into recession with every new rate hike. Yeah, that sentence. Yeah, remember, for those of you who attended the webinar or who watched the webinar video, I'll put it out on YouTube now. So you can watch it on YouTube if you haven't watched it, right? But this slide, right? I said that interest rate hikes, yeah, typically currency appreciation, but if you do it too much, it leads to economic slowdown and contraction. And the more you do it, yeah, is the more you're going to go into, oh, here it is, right? You're going to go into pushing your economy, like replace ECB with any other country that will be in the same place, but you're pushing your economy further into a recession with every new rate hike.