 Alright hey what's up guys this is Alex from Xtrades back to you with another weekly trade ideas list. Hope everybody had a wonderful trading week last week. Last week we had some put setups on the list and honestly I didn't really get a good trigger on any of them so I actually had to find some other stuff. I ended up calling out DAL puts in the chat and the only thing that actually worked that we went over in the video was the Chinese longs that I kind of just mentioned by name. I didn't go over any of the charts but I just had mentioned BABA and JD. Those did pretty good but the put setups, market was very bullish so Shop, Facebook and Oracle did not end up triggering really any short setup on the one day chart. So I'm hoping this week will be a little bit better and maybe I'll be able to trade the setups that we go over this week because last week I didn't get to trade any of them. I suppose on Monday you could have shorted the gap up on meta because it ended up dumping pretty good but I was waiting for the trend line to break and that never broke. I ended up going higher so Bulls got a really nice run on that. This week I have a little bit of a mix so we'll go over those but first let's go into the economic calendar. We actually have a really quiet week this week for data. Last week was pretty much our big show and that's over now and now we're kind of going into more calm data sets. So Monday is the Empire State Manufacturing Survey. I don't really think this is going to move the market that much. Tuesday the US retail sales definitely has potential to move the market and maybe the business inventories and also the home builder confidence index does definitely move the market. It honestly just depends on how extreme the reading is. And then Thursday just our regular initial job was claimed a lot of people have been paying attention to that more recently to see if the labor market has any changes coming up or see if we can start seeing uptick and unemployment and all that good stuff so we know the Fed tightening is working. And then 830 the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey this can definitely move the market and then most importantly I would say this day the existing home sales I've seen this move the market pretty good give a little insight into the real estate market so this can definitely move the market like but I mean it just depends you know depends on how extreme the reading is and how people are feeling that day and then Friday nothing scheduled so a very quiet week this week I would argue that probably the retail sales is the most important and that's really about it. I mean the others have potential but I would say retail sales definitely would you know have the most potential to move the market all right now we'll go ahead and get into the setups so we do have a mix this week so I have a couple longs but also a couple of shorts to look at just because there's a couple things hitting resistance but there's also a couple of names that I personally like they look good to the upside it honestly just depends but our first one here Coca Cola ticker symbol KO you can see there's a very short term breakout they do have earnings coming up so this could get a nice pre earnings run-up but this breakout does look pretty bullish you also have the slow stochastic here crossing it to the upside so I had a nice little run off this demand zone I have marked there's a resistance at 61 10 and then there's another peak at about 62 17 so these are the two areas that probably look for resistance if it continues higher we really need to see KO get over this 61 10 make a base off that and then maybe go up to 62s and that's pretty much as far as I could put it for right now I honestly don't know if I would get up to 62 before earnings but it's definitely a possibility I mean it's not too much of a move but it is a pretty decent move if it got up there so KO here looking good for calls but nice little short-term set up that maybe could be setting up before earnings I personally wouldn't hold through the earnings report unless you're just a long-term investor or plan on holding shares holding options through earnings is a little bit riskier so unless you don't have a safe expiration date or you know you don't have pretty much a smaller position size I wouldn't you know trade options into earnings it's just very risky so I mean some people like that's kind of stuff the high risk stuff but I like to conserve capital so I just make sure I don't swing any options through earnings usually but you know occasionally you know I might you know get some motivation to hold through earnings but honestly it would just depend and the setup would need to be really good so KO here looking at calls all right and next we're going into AT&T so this is ticker symbol T and I've been seeing this one on Twitter a lot more recently and also saw it on Reddit for a brief second people starting to talk about it just because it's trading so cheap right now I think the PE ratio is sitting at about four which is way below the S&P average if we go ahead and take the indicators off here you can see we do have a crazy crazy support all the way from what is that early 2000s right here so this support is I mean it's pretty huge and this is the lowest it's been in a really long time they do pay a very high percent yield about 7% so I'd say that's you know pretty decent dividend yield I believe they pay quarterly so this is actually more of a long-term investment trade you could maybe look at a swing trade on options on this as well but I'm really eyeing this big support and I feel like even if it broke there's pretty good a chance that it could bounce back up just because it's so low and the PE ratio is so low I feel like the support could still hold but this general area from 14 to 12 I feel like it would probably hold up pretty good just because this is I mean this is just ridiculously low guys and the only reason why I would say it's been trending down so low is probably because of their debt they do have a lot of debt and with interest rates up obviously that makes their debt more expensive so that's one risk when it comes to investing in AT&T long-term their debt but otherwise as long as they're still paying a dividend I really like this setup and I feel like this would be a good long-term hold so I'm looking at adding this one into the long-term I've been trying to throw a couple you know long-term investments out for people in the chat and also in these videos the last one I put out was UAA so I actually am long under armor right now about I think 713 a share so we have a nice little cushion I think it ran up 12% already but I haven't sold yet I'm gonna hold through their earnings and all that stuff just because it shares so I feel a little bit safer doing that and I'm looking for like 10 plus it's a long-term investment so same game plan with T here as long as you're paying a dividend I'll continue to hold the shares but I'm probably gonna look to buy this on Monday or Tuesday I want to see if it's gonna hold up this 1423 support so long as this is holding up maybe into you know Friday or so next Friday and you know the one week bar or the one month bar at the end of July is holding the support I'd feel really good about it you know holding and bouncing back up and ideally first price target obviously on the one month is probably gonna be like 20 flat or so looks like there's a little cluster right here if you add at 20 flat or so you got support resistance just overall area of confluence so if it's able to hold up the area to be a pretty good setup like I said this is a long term investment if you want to look at longer term options maybe three or four or five six seven months out get a nice good expiration just because there's still a bit of downside risk right I mean people are selling this it's been in a downtrend since 2016 if you look at the monthly chart all the way from up here lower highs lower highs lower highs lower lows etc so you do have to be careful with this one and then keep in mind their high debt and you know may take rates coming back down for this to start bouncing and you know as long as debt gets cheaper you know eventually this could bounce and I feel like as long as they're holding their dividend up people are still gonna buy it so as long as they're safe with that and they're not slashing their dividend or completely cutting it out if they did you'd probably need to cut it and you know reevaluate maybe find something else because I would say that this dividend is probably the one thing holding them up and even with the dividend it's still selling off pretty good so you do have to be careful with that so to you here looking at a long-term investment for shares but also you could look at calls all right and now we're gonna go ahead and get into a couple of shorts and obviously they're tech so you are kind of going a little bit counter trend here so you do have to be careful wait for the right signals it's the same thing as last week we had all tech for puts on watch and none of them gave a good trigger so I didn't enter any of them and I didn't alert any of them either unfortunately I really want to trade them but I just didn't get those triggers so this is gonna be the same thing this week if I don't get the triggers I'm obviously not gonna take these but Adobe here you could see it's at this was that 518 74 so it's a pretty good resistance from what is that June 16th you can see the resistance right here so it's pretty good I had a pretty hard rejection here all the way from up here filled the gap down and had a slight sell off nothing crazy and then it's got a little structure hold up you know about right here it's got a little structure hold up there at about 472 or so obviously still trending over the one-day 9 EMA so it's still an uptrend one thing you do have going for you other than the resistance to the downside is that you can see the slow stochastic here crossing down so it's kind of similar to a kdj oscillator just a little bit slower and it kind of lags a little bit more but it kind of lags out those false signals that a kdj can give and it's kind of like a MACD as well you're just looking for crossovers you're looking for a trend with the slow stochastic up here so you can see when it crossed up really nice upside had a little cross down here but it just fell into consolidation so this cross down did not pay this cross down right here on the slow stochastic did pay so you got a crossover after this red bar and it sold off for a couple days nothing crazy but you see the gist of it using the crossovers kind of to get a trend read and maybe find a reversal but what we want to do we don't want to just use indicators and we don't want to just use resistance we also want to use price points so let's go ahead and use Friday's low as a trigger point they can get under Friday's low at 1512 67 on Monday that could be a good short-term put trade so we'll go ahead and add an alert and we'll name it breakdown so now that we got the alert at Friday's low we can go ahead and just wait for that to trigger I said some alerts last week as well on shop oracle and meta they kind of triggered but there was only one 15-minute bar or so below it so it really wasn't good triggers but the alerts did go off but you just have to be careful when setting alerts you don't want to just enter on the first candle breakdown you want to you know see nice selling you want to see a holding below it and also you want to see follow-through so if you don't get the follow-through that's not a good signal and we saw that last week I mean shop oracle and meta all all the put triggers did go off because price did go below our price points and alert setups so once it went below the alert setup on the 15 minute or a five minute or one minute the first time that price gets one penny under the alert it's gonna go off so you can get false signals but you do want to pay attention to the 15-minute candles and the 30-minute candles maybe even a one-hour candle if you can get a one-hour candle close below Friday's low or a 30-minute bar below Friday's low that's a good trigger and we're gonna hold that same standard with the alerts that we had last week you know shop meta and oracle which didn't work out you want to be looking at those 30-minute bars the 15-minute bars make sure they're really closing under that and make sure they're staying under that because if they pop back over after closing under you know that may you may want to get back out so you just got to be careful with that so make sure that we're staying under 15 12 67 if the alert goes off and we do get under Friday's low and that'll give you maybe a good put trade down to the 9 EMA right here and that probably be you know about 501 or so something like that it might take a couple days could take one day so we'll have to see a lot of times on Friday if the day is rad you'll get some continuation on Monday same thing with the indexes of spy or QQQ were to close like super super red Mondays will follow through and then usually you know it'll get bought back up by Tuesday so it's kind of the they call it the weekend effect or maybe the Monday effect and it's just a continuation play that you know the market will continue its trend from Friday so maybe we'll see that on Adobe but like I said we do want to get under 512 67 we set that alert make sure a 30-minute bar gets under it tomorrow closes under it and that could be a good trigger if you're brave enough you could just take it at the first break on a 5 or 15 minute candle but that's up to you you do have to be careful though so just make sure you you know you're managing your risk correctly so Adobe here looking at puts as long as we get our trigger alright next we're going into MU so this one actually could be a call or put trade right now it's rejecting so I'm going to assume that it could go lower just because it closed under the downtrend line you got to test one you got to test to you got to test three you got to test for also we closed under the 21 EMA on the one day so these dots right here are the 21 EMA that could be you know showing that we're still making you know lower highs lower lows it just depends what I did though even though I feel like this could go a little bit lower I did also right-click and I add an alert on the trend line in case it wants to break out I didn't name it but I'll name it right now we'll just name a breakout in case it doesn't want to switch and that way if you know it does want to break out later this is a great long setup because if it can break out obviously that could take you up to this resistance right here at 6795 you could call it roughly just 68 flat if you wanted to and that's the resistance right there and that's from pre earnings last time if we can get under Friday's low which is a usually a good trigger point you want to use Friday's low going into the next week if it can break under that Monday it's usually a pretty good signal but like I said you want to be using the 15 minute or the 30 minute for good confirmation you're just scalping you know you can use the five minute if you want as long as it's closing under Friday's low with the bar it could be a good signal but you do want to see that follow-through so you just got to be careful with it so go ahead and add an alert let's call it Friday's low and that'll be our trigger so if I can get under Friday's low that'll be a good put trade to the downside then obviously the price target you got to buy in bands candles here that can fill up pretty easily to the downside if it breaks and then there's a demand zone right here at 61 43 down to 60 63 at its low you can see these blue marks that's the demand zone we just marked you know if it can get under Friday's low probably see about there and I try to probably crawl up about there just depends but like I said right now it's still rejecting the downtrend line so you might want to you know shift your focus to your downside or puts it's also closed under the 21 EMA you see the dots right here this is the closing price this is the 21 EMS so it's slightly below nothing crazy but also still holding the daily nine so maybe another good trigger would be to get under the daily nine EMA which is right with Friday's low because you can see the daily nine right here and you can see Friday's low at 63 60s right here so if we can get under that good trigger if not if my market wants to gap up Monday and it opens outside the uptrend line that's a great signal to maybe you know look at it along right at the open just because it opened outside the you know outside the downtrend line and it could take off but it just depends so just make sure you're paying attention to that look at the one-day time frame don't just look at the 5 or 15 minute look at the one day if it looks good and looks like it go higher or lower based off your triggers so if it you know can open outside of here or open below here though that's a good signal for either short if it breaks over here or long if it breaks over the downtrend line and you were focused more on puts just because it's still within the downtrend but I am willing to stay open-minded to the upside if it gets over downtrend line and then our last individual name here we're looking at SMH so I was actually talking in the discord earlier I was talking to some people I felt like Nvidia has just been way over extended and I don't want to buy puts on it yet either because I know you know people can just show up out of nowhere and just you know panic by it and you can get squeezed so you do have to wait for a good signal Nvidia I feel like there's not that great of a signal yet but SMH here you're getting a you know you're getting the whole broad sector covered just in this ETF this is gonna have everything all the top semiconductor names in this ETF so if they're all selling or all buying obviously this is gonna go up with it and what I really like about this one is that it's already retraced 100% of this downtrend so the downtrend started all the way from 2021 down to 2022 lows in October and that's what gives you this fiber tracement from high down to low it's already retraced the whole thing at a slight 61.8% rejection which I've showed on these videos before 61.8 plays are really nice and downtrends they make great rejections it's already broken over that so I gave a 61.8 breakout already broke over the 78.6 didn't even acknowledge this as resistance or anything but now we've reached the 100% point so this is you know a pretty good area to start looking for resistance obviously this one week bar is not bearish yet so you do want to be careful with that if we go down to the one day you can see we do have a slight red bar it was nothing crazy you can see it was only down 0.83% on Friday so nothing crazy there's a small little gap here I'm guessing just because semi's gapped up a little bit AMD sold off really heavy even Nvidia sold off really heavy after being up so I'm surprised this didn't fill the whole gap but obviously something held it up just above the gap honestly if you can get into this little gap make a great put scalp and then there's another resistance right here so this actually I'm liking this for a trigger better if it can get under 155.94 we could just run it up to 156 or so so just keep an eye on it at 156 if you break 156 I feel like that could flush to the downside and that also aligns with this little gap right here so we're gonna send alert on this too we'll just put an alert and we'll name it resistance so if I can get back under the resistance here that means this you know this level could be back in play and this could be a resistance along with that 100% area that I showed you on the one week timeframe so that'll be our trigger under 156 or 155.94 and then it could enter that gap obviously you probably want to look at taking profit on the short term if it reached either the 9 EMA on the one day or the 21 EMA on the one day which is your little combo you have right here so this is your short term 9 this is your short term 21 with the dots and the reason for that is because if it does pull back and get under it could just make a higher low and just keep you know keep holding the uptrend and another thing that could happen here why you don't want to just short just yet because it could hold up this 155.94 I could back test it and hold it up as support as a classic break retest mega base and then try to go higher but obviously the 100% area that I showed you on the one week is definitely a factor and it is in the way so it if both want this to go higher they would have to take it over that so we do have that in our favor if it wants more downside one thing I don't see yet I don't see the slow stochastic escalator here it's still curling up there's no crossover yet so we can get under 156 and cross over the slow stochastic I feel good about that you can see the slow stochastic here crossed to the downside had a nice pullback and then once it crossed back up nice little run cross back down two-day pullback cross back up another good run so this the slow stochastic has been working pretty good for this name so I'd like to see that slow stochastic crossed down for trying to take puts also get under 156 also maybe enter the gap so that's for SMH I'm gonna be looking at puts on this I'm just not willing to buy calls up here on this I mean maybe if it was able to break out of the 159.40 obviously it probably be like 160 flat if it breaks over 160 flat and closes over that semi they're definitely gonna still be in play so just keep an eye on that if it can get over that but otherwise good risk to reward for puts here maybe even a short just because we're at this all-time resistance and it's basically a 52 week high or all-time high for this ETF so SMH here looking at puts just make sure you wait for the right triggers same thing as last week if you don't get the triggers and don't get a good feeling about it don't take it so do the same thing we did last week if I don't like any of these shorts or really anything on this list are you know I'm not gonna take it other than tea I'm pretty pretty sure I'm definitely gonna buy tea for the long term doesn't really matter where you buy long term as long as your dollar cost averaging you can pretty much buy at any price if you buy once a month you're gonna build up a nice average you know despite where you buy so tea I'm definitely gonna be looking at shares most likely gonna buy you know indefinitely others you know these are short-term option plays even you know a 30-day option is still short-term so even if you're swinging these and buying 30 plus days out you still do have to be very selective with what you're doing and you don't want just you know chase puts just because it's at resistance you want a couple things lining up and if you're not getting those lineups just don't take it alright next we're going into spy here so this one's actually looking a little crazy this week and the reason for that is because we're pulling into a rally-based drop a big 2022 rally-based drop supply zone another thing it's pulling into is that seventy point six Fibonacci and that's from this you know 2022 high in January down to October lows in 2022 so it's even pretty much assume is retrace seventy point six percent of its losses already which is you know phenomenal even with you know five percent interest rates and the Fed tightening it doesn't seem to matter equities are in its own world it's still breaking out obviously once they got over 430 and 61.8 is pretty much all you know because there's a couple one-week candles ever read but it's still holding higher lows making higher highs so that's that's why you want to look at the one week you want to make sure you know you're not just taking a short at the first red bar and you know when the VIX is this low just stick the scalps if you're gonna take puts and wait for a reversal signal and that's not gonna be until you take out a one week low and you can see we never took out a one week low here we never took out a one week low here we never took out a one week low here never took out a one week low here so you just got to pay attention to that look for the one week lows to get taken out then you can maybe look at puts for a short-term trade or a medium-term or long-term trade just depends let's buy here I feel like it's gonna see some resistance eventually it may not be after this one week bar just cuz it's so bullish we could start getting into consolidation we have a very quiet week with data so I'm not really expecting too much this week but the Fibonacci retrace was there and the supplies there so naturally I have to think in this general area it could reject and maybe try to come back down and test the moving averages or something it honestly just depends and obviously you can't really assume your rejection until you get a nice candle to go with that and right now we're just have you know we're just at a bullish candle so I mean this could go a little bit higher into supply before trying to reject so you have to be careful with that so now you've seen the one week we went down to the one day maybe look at a couple gaps real quick we do have a gap right here we get the magnet on so you got a gap right here was that 444 90s down to 44297 so about a about a $2 gap there it's pretty decent nothing crazy I would say the ATR on spies anywhere from like three to four bucks so $2 is I mean it's it's it's decent it's not the full ATR or anything but it's a pretty good gap so it make a good scalp if it can get down into that we also do have a short-term resistance here right at 4443 90 I'm pretty sure we covered 4443 90 a couple times last week and I was very skeptical at this level I felt like it go a little bit lower down to the band I did not reach that so it held the 9 of 21 EMA very good holding higher lows ended up breaking out almost even made a ascending pattern so an ascending pattern is flat top resistance while it's making higher lows it builds up like a pressure cooker and then it breaks out like this so that's what it did exactly and now we only have one one day bar here that's red so it's nothing crazy the red bar didn't even take out the lows or the previous bar so it's you know this could just be a base candle so you do need to see Friday's lows get taken out and then once it gets on a Friday's lows it needs to take out Thursday's lows of last week so and then it kind of goes into this little base candle right here which could be considered a demand zone actually it's a red bearish base candle and it didn't make a higher high so we could consider that a demand zone may not be the prettiest one or the most you know crazy demand zone but it is a rally it made a base made a higher high so rally base rally so if it does pull back obviously it probably pull back into this little little fart of a demand zone here if that demand zone obviously broke you go straight into the gap and 443 90 which is previous resistance so anything above this 443 90 I feel like it's still relatively bullish but you do have to be careful because we do that one week supply I showed you so this is kind of your trading range you got the one week supply and the 78.6 I showed you and this little demand here in 443 90 so I would just say 443 90 with the 452 or so it's probably gonna be your trading range maximum it honestly just depends we've got to start busting through some of these levels you know for me to feel like the range is gonna be any bigger than that we got a really low VIX so naturally ATRs get pretty tight ranges get really tight with a low VIX there's no volatility and that makes the market feel a little bit tighter so we do need to see a little bit more from that otherwise I feel like this week is probably gonna be a little bit chill like I said for me to want to take puts on this or scalp puts I'd want to see Friday's logo taken out same with you know any other names want to see Friday's lows get taken out otherwise I feel like people are just gonna keep buying this up if you really wanted to wait for a pullback in this to enter a swing trade I've been you know recommending people to keep track of the 9 and 21 EMAs they obviously work really good you're gonna show you right here so you got a cluster holding here the 9 and 21 you got a cluster here holding at the 9 and 21 you got a nice little bounce here you get the 9 holding right here so you want to be adding at the moving averages in an uptrend maybe even buy at demand or support I don't really don't like breakout trades all that much you can trade them but the risk to reward is not that great obviously if you took this 44390 breakout worked pretty good for a couple of days but you are getting the best deals when they pull back into the moving averages and you're adding on higher lows and your higher lows are gonna be right here you know right here really anywhere where the moving averages trending up you could wait for it to pull back into there and that gives you the best deal so that's for spy guys like I said right at one week supply and just as a demand zone just short of it and a small gap so I really can't put it any lower than 44390 for now and I can't put it any higher than 452 because we do have this 78.6 and also the one week supply so this is probably gonna be the trading range for now one thing that's pretty good slow stochastic here the escalator is still curling up and crossed over positively so that's that's pretty good it could be good for bulls but you know it just depends that you know this can change in an instant so let's see all right next we're going into QQQ so you can see the one week here and get rid of the indicators real quick so on the one week time frame we do have a little supply zone so you got a supply zone right here actually it's considered a drop-based drop so you got a big drop candle it creates a base it makes another drop or lower low and currently the QQQ is inside that and this is kind of like a no buy zone for me even though you know this looks pretty bullish it broke over that 37183 2022 resistance I didn't even pay attention to this supply zone last week because I showed you the 37183 I mentioned that either need to reject there get over that in order to go higher and also maybe rejected if it wants to go lower it had a little bit trouble at this level but overall last week it did break out of that finally but I have been totally ignoring this big base candle from 2022 so this is definitely a supply zone and I personally even if it broke over this 37183 if I saw this last week I definitely wouldn't have traded this breakout over 37183 just because it's going straight into the supply from 2022 this is a drop base drop supply zone so it's definitely a chance it could start rejecting about there one good sign is that it closed inside of it so it didn't close you know with a rejection candle below it you didn't really see a crazy reaction inside of the supply yet but it we are inside of it and then if it can get over that obviously if you can get over 390 that takes you straight you know to all-time highs which is 408.71 which is just insane to be saying right now but it's the truth so if it can get over that fine but it's kind of off limits for me I just way too risky it's already ran up so much so you know take advantage of the quick moves while you can but you know just be really careful here for the daily time frame you could see it were slightly over the 78.6 and that's the retracement I just showed you in the one week you know if this supply doesn't end up pulling back obviously you know that could act as support as well but I feel more good about 37183 holding up as support than a Fibonacci level just because this is more recent so that you know this recent resistance could definitely act as support so we have a peak at 37285 and then the 2022 resistance at 37183 that we went over last week so that cluster of 37285 to 37183 that could definitely act as you know good support we even remove this Fibonacci level and we'll just have the support and the supply and there's a demand zone down here as well if it did pull back obviously this would likely hold up or at least it would try to so if it did pull back though obviously it has to take you know it's to take out the lows of Friday just like with any other stock we've been looking at we want to see the lows get taken out from Friday in order to have a good signal you can see it's a little stochastic here escalator still curling up so it hasn't crossed back down or anything so I don't feel super bearish yet I would need to see a signal of that crossing down to you know feel like it's gonna pull back into support but at the same time you know we're inside that big one week supply zone this is just a no-trade zone for me if the camera little pivots look fine you know tomorrow and we're still inside supply I was still you know I still be willing to buy you know calls at S3 or you know maybe look at our for breakout but it just depends and this big supply zone just makes me sketched out so I might even be wise to you know just stick to individual tickers this week but I just can't seem to stay away from spying QQQ I day trade them all the time and also you know trade the future so we'll see really no setup here I mean this could just be a base candle and try to hold up structure before trying to go higher that's what the slow stochastic stalemates still curled up no crossed to the downside but you know still holding over the moving averages and everything I really don't really have a projection on this this week other than just be cautious at supply which we're inside of maximum I can see us down to 370 to 85 if it pulled back price target higher I really don't see much higher to be honest I really feel like it can't go too much higher at least on the short term it's probably need a little cool off before you know trying to go higher as usual the best buy if you're really going to try to go long like I said on spy when we were going over it you want to be adding at the moving averages add a higher lows at the 21 or the 9 on the one day time frame and it works really good I mean you got a bounce right here at the 9 and 21 you got a bounce here at the 9 you got a slight bounce here at the 9 I sold off a little bit but held the 21 bounced bounced off the 9 and 21 again here so you want to be adding at those to get the best discount like I said this is not the best discount up here so not to sound indecisive or sound like I'm wish you wash it here but you do want to wait for it to get down here or at least get down to this 370 to 85 area and you look at longs there but I mean at the same time you know it's just kind of risky to short up here so like I said just wait for the Friday's lows to get taken out if Friday's low if we get under that at 370 18 you can definitely look at puts and even if it held up there a short term the hell Friday's low fine on Monday you know you could maybe even look at calls still for a scalp so it just depends but just make sure you know how to read market sentiment pay attention to the VIX the dollar etc so really nothing of substance here just be cautious inside supply wait for the Friday's low to get taken out if you want to buy make sure Friday's low is either holding or make sure it's at 372 85 which is previous resistance and that'd be a good buy zone to look for a bounce all right next we're going into the IWM so last week I really didn't have anything for the IWM last week I don't think I think we were looking at so this was Friday's close so we were mid-range but in the middle of a demand zone bounce so I mentioned you wouldn't want to really take you know any puts here or take any calls here you'd want to wait for it to get up to resistance if you want to look at puts and you can see it got up there but ended up breaking out so puts wouldn't have even worked up here unfortunately so this demand zone pretty much outweighed everything and this is that rally based rally demand zone we covered we actually covered it when it was down here and I said look good for a bounce it ran up really nice and then once I got up to resistance I said it looked pretty good for puts didn't look great for calls just because it's that resistance sold off bounce back into demand again and then you know it did end up holding up Thursday and Friday but when we were going over the charts last Sunday this is our Friday close so we are mid-range so this is not at demand and it's also not at resistance so it just didn't feel like you know a great setup and hindsight you know you could have obviously because it went higher it also held your 9 and 21 EMAs so this Friday's close held the 21 and the 9 and it ended up going higher so it's still holding you know an uptrend very cleanly but once I got up to resistance just no chance I mean I just it closed over and then gaped up so that's this that's about as simple as it gets it starts closing over resistance there's no good chance it could keep going higher so that's exactly what I did here now there could be an opportunity here so it looks like it filled the gap was that from Tuesday to Wednesday Friday it finally filled down it looks like we have the 9 and 21 down here slightly but the most important thing I think is this resistance at 18924 it's the same resistance that we've been covering the last few weeks also the 38.2 fib that we've been covering the last few weeks that's also kind of a area that maybe this could pull back into very slightly but then try to hold up as a base so we'll have to see but if it can get down here I would maybe look at calls or look at it long if it can get down here and also hold as a base if you see good evidence of it closing over the resistance acting as new support that's a good long signal maybe if you even get like a candle like this or get a candle like this something full body maybe a lower shadow wick showing that there's by pressure like right here something showing you that it's reacting to the line and that's what you want to be looking for on supply and demand zones and also just regular support you want to see those lower shadow wicks you want to see a nice reversal candle something giving you some evidence right and you want to see that at the closing bell so you want to see a nice close with these one-day bars that's how you get a good reading and that's how you go into the next day with a game plan or go into the new week with a game plan like we do here on Sunday we go over the one day time frames in the one week time frames those are the best they work the best if you're trying to write out a plan so another piece of evidence I have here that it could pull back just a little bit you can see the slow stochastic here pulling back as well as the banks just got absolutely clobbered on Friday there's a couple that released earnings I think Citigroup and maybe like Wells Fargo or something they both I mean just sold off into hell so they got obliterated especially Citigroup I mean it was up and then it filled the gap down and then went down 4% after that so I mean the one day bar on Citigroup is just outrageous it's just a huge outside bar that took out everything so that could be the reason why we're seeing that pressure you see is down 1% for IWM because of the financial sector so slow stochastic escalator curling down just a tad he got banks down as well so like I said if I can pull back into this little area maybe look for a long office area or after just the regular 9 and 21 he may keep trying to write it while still giving you a chance but you know you don't just have to trade breakouts guys I mean you can wait for it to dip a little bit and you can look for a discount there that's what I like to do I don't really like trading breakouts in this market too much like to add at the discount so just makes more sense to me it's better risk to reward and you can keep your you know your risk is just so much easier to manage and if you were to chase a breakout and it dumps like this what are you gonna do you just get way more cushion if you know buying low and it gets a little bit oversold people are gonna try to you know magically bid that back up and institutions see it's cheap and they'll try to bid it back up bring it back over support make sure it's holding support etc so that's for the IWM guys like I said I could just pull back just a tad and then try to hold up about 189.20s or just off the moving averages right there and you could try to add about there but still an uptrend so I mean it looks pretty good but like I said the best the best discount area is gonna be from 189.24 down to 187.63 in that area all right and next we're going into the VIX my least favorite part of the videos that I made just because I hate this indicator lately it just when it looks like it's about to get interesting it sells back off so we've been focused on this 1553 obviously it probably sound like a parrot if you watch these every week I talk about this every week so 1553 is obviously our level of focus it opened over that a couple of times actually looks like on Friday opened over and also opened over on Monday we opened at 1608 so it it opened above the level but what I say every week is that it doesn't matter about the open doesn't matter about you know anything else except for the close you want to see the close over these levels otherwise it's just not gonna matter that much and you can see we opened over 16 but closed under 1553 so that's why I kept going lower so we do need to see it getting over that in order for it to go higher otherwise it's a lost cause but VIX is in a little bit of a better situation than it is if you're looking over here we're now getting into supports so we have a little bounce area right here little bounce area right here so I'd say from 13 to 1270s or so that's probably a good area that could curl back up it honestly just depends though right now slow stochastic is crossed down so I need to see the VIX kind of curl back up and see a positive crossover for me to feel like it's gonna go back up I would really use the slow stochastic as a short-term gauge and right now it's crossed below so you need to see it curl back up but we are coming into supports here it's also training training under the moving averages you got your 21 here with the dots like I showed you before and the 9 EMA and you can see it respects it pretty good you know once it got over right here well actually close slightly under but once they got over there's a big big pop once it got over the 21 so if you can get over 21 again I could pop back up but right now it's training below both and you can see what happens when it turns below both lower high lower highs lower lows just make sure 13 is holding if you really want to see you know the market go lower and finally pull back after the bulls have been eating all this time you want to see the market go down you need to see 13 holding you see 12 7 12 73 holding if you want to see market go higher scream higher which is very well good because you got you know VIX at 13 again you got dollar below 100 which will go over next you'd obviously need to get under 12 73 and you know that could take you a little bit lower and then it looks like I have a dotted level at 11 42 that's probably the next support below that so I'm guessing that 11 42 dotted areas probably from you know probably from 2020 or 2019 or 2018 or something because I had nothing for 2021 except for these two at 14 10 and 14 73 and we're below those now so I'm guessing that this 11 42 is probably from a year even even before 2021 so we're at you know multi-year loads here on the VIX so I try to look for other levels that it can maybe react to but right now we do have a local 12 73 and 13 area as support so and then you know above that is just our usual levels have been covering every single week but like I said let the slow stochastic or you know let the MACD or some type of trend indicator you know kind of gauge you for the short term because the VIX respects it pretty well and also your moving average is short term we're trending below both and also you got a negative slow stochastic so I mean it looks like it could keep going lower here but you know we do have a little bit of sport here so as long as that's holding you know there's still a hope that it could go back up but otherwise not too much on this you can maybe look at VIX calls you know I got billed out of my VIX calls I had some VIX calls they were down you know 50 60% or something 17 calls for July and it literally went up to 17 you know oh nine or something so I got bailed out with a 10% gain so I got really lucky on those VIX options are really tough to trade but what you could do is go a couple months out maybe go at the money or in the money to make it a little bit easier because you go too far out of the money even if the VIX goes up they might not pay you so you got to be really careful but that's for the VIX just make sure this level is holding otherwise I'm still waiting for you know our important levels to get broke over all right next we're going into the DXY was just absolutely got smashed so I just smashed below the levels we covered last week I'm pretty sure I mentioned as long as it's under 103 and staying under 103 is a good chance they probably flushed this 102.06 it did that so it looks like Friday stayed under 103 so we ended up staying out stayed under 103 on Monday and then it ran straight down into the 102 that we were looking at but once that closed under it was just a freefall flush into 182 which is this base right here so you can see the technicals is really good on this you got a you know closer to under the 102 here that we're looking at last week in a straight flush and that was a good probably a good bullish signal for the market and like I said the last couple weeks currencies are extremely sensitive to data so once we had the most important data basically of the month obviously the dollar and the bonds and any other macro indicators are going to react very sensitively and way more than it normally would so you know the DXY and the bonds are not going to move like equities all the time and sometimes it takes events and actual macro data to move them but now so we're under the 182 this is the support the main support I had and I felt pretty good about the market keep going higher once it got under 182 but now I'm a little skeptic because like I said I showed you on spy we're pulling into that supply we're actually inside a supply on QQQ so two one-week supplies on spy and QQQ that we're right at also we've retraced I mean so much already we need a short-term pullback or some type of correction you know maybe you could load up once it you know you get the dip because this can you know this continuous breakout on the markets is just hard to buy I mean why would you want to chase the highs or chase the top you want to add the discounts and that's what I wait for that's what I try to add at I try to add a demand I try to add at the moving averages I don't try to add the breakouts so if you're a breakout trader great for you it's been working pretty good but you can see DXY here so this is actually a 2022 demand zone so this is all the way from March 2022 it's a rally based rally zone maximum I could put the dollar down to that and then probably try to curl up about there and then maybe run back up to 182 and back test that but it honestly just depends this one week bar is pretty bearish so but if you look on the one day like we were looking at before obviously I mean it's pretty oversold it's just brutal I mean there's like five candles down so it might have a dead cat bounce and try to bounce back up and that you know could spook the market on the short-term you know intraday or something but I don't think it's gonna do much we need a much larger move maybe back over 182 to actually spook the market so I was able to reclaim that level obviously I'd feel pretty good about the market pulling back you know for right now I feel like it could still go a little bit lower right into this demand zone and try to curl up about there so that's my expectation you know that could or could or could not hit but another good thing for the bulls if you're bullish on the dollar we actually have this low stochastic here curling up so this is actually a positive curl up because you the purple over the orange that means it's curling back up and it had a really gnarly curl down here so this could be a you know a little dead cat bounce or short-term bottom for now on the dollar just because it's got so oversold the demand zones at like 9915 or so so you know really not too much lower if it did pull back into the demand zone and probably try to curl up about there but you do have a good sign that it's starting to curl up here on the stochastic so we'll see but that's really all I got for the dollar right now I mean you got cushion on this demand zone so if it did fall I really wouldn't expect it to go much lower just to this demand zone that's about it that'd be good you know short term for the bulls if it can continue lower go into this demand obviously the market can keep going a little bit higher but you know if it does want a dead cat here dead cat bounce up back into 182 back test the support as new resistance obviously market could pull back a little bit but you need the VIXX to move with it as well which I've been explaining in my videos last few weeks so I love you guys make sure you like comment and subscribe to our extra YouTube channel I'm good to get this chopped up edited and sent out it's a little bit late so I want to get this out ASAP love you guys and I'm out