 forty past the hour we talked to our man teddy kegs that great day to do it if you haven't checked out the tiger for x report folks with everything going on with four x right now with the yen with yields with commodities and courage it while we're talking to teddy you're listening to our interview head on over to the front page of tfn and under the newsletter tab you'll find teddy's outstanding weekly newsletter the tiger for x report you can sign up for that you get a thirty day money back guarantee you gain access to the newsletter folks check it out and boys a great day to talk as we're talking about the yen with weakness we have not seen i had to check my math teddy nineteen ninety man thirty four years good morning teddy thirty four years ago in about another month is when i first place my first trade and i'll be thirty five years in the business also in about another month so i remember that time experience in history as we know man sometimes you can't match that type of experience when you live through some of those deals yeah let's jump into it man of course you got a little bit of commentary we've been talking about it you've had some great calls out here and yeah we got a little bit of a pullback we're sitting i got the chat up here one fifty one thirty three we hit one fifty one ninety seven earlier today of course bank of japan officials uh... not quite comfortable with that level but you know they are the the say all of the market sometimes what do you think about this price action and pretty remarkable well you know what it's very interesting you know you hear all this talk about you know it's been thirty four years since they've been at this level no one's talking about the interest rate dynamic back then our interest rates were very very much higher than they are now okay which is no one's even talking about that and it's interesting that you know people are wondering you know the bank of japan recently just did their first move in you know forever to begin with what are they gonna do you know the one fifty three in the tiger forks report now for months i've had this line literally at one fifty is to be oj threshold line you know and we've now we're trading above it and this is after central bank intervention on their part and we know that ours is not going to happen at probably at least until june you know and unless that happens is can be very hard for us to get really too far below the one fifty level right now with dollar strength and it's kind of odd you know it's very interesting right now that we're we're looming on a rate cut and dollar strength right now is looming there and you know usually in times of trouble and stuff like that the bonds are flight to quality and you know so is the u.s. dollar you know what's interesting so is the swiss the one currency that's breaking out right now that no one's talking about is the u.s. dollar swiss you know granted that right now the yen and u.s. dollar relationship is at a very high threshold and definitely where they don't want it to be uh... but no one's even looking at the fact that the one currency that's really breaking out is the u.s. dollar swiss and and and that's where i think that these these currency dynamics the coil is winding right now if you look at like interest rates right now between the especially the ten in the thirty year on our end we've been arranged rates since the first of december we we hit that with the higher end of our range right before the first of the year and we've been bobbling off the lower end for the last month and a half and we're not going anywhere you know and and and we talked about this before already that we've had definitely have at least a quarter point factored into the market you know so where what is this dynamic mean it means that on unless there's any real big intervention on the japanese part uh... dirt most likely we were pretty much to stay around these levels can we have a sell-off absolutely it we would be due for a profit-taking correction without a doubt but it's very hard to see how we're not gonna stay bobbling around this somewhere around one fifty level probably for the next few months at the very least especially with oil at the at the eighty plus dollar level as well you know like the only reason i could see that the yen is going to get back to like one forty five or lower would mean that we're gonna see oil back in the seventies and we're also gonna see us having at least one rate cut under our belt you know so until that happens i would say get used to these price levels and maybe even see a spike now i'd be careful being on the long side also you know how far can we go to the upside well if we're on a rate cut edge odds are we're buffering that ceiling to begin with you know unless there's any real reason for u.s. dollars strength which there isn't you know i'd be careful you know buying into these highs you know i think that if you're buying dips between one forty eight and one fifty looking for a spike up to one fifty two one fifty three that's a great place i'd be very careful buying up at the one fifty three level though it's a great point man i appreciate the take and for those listeners even if they've heard it once or twice teddy i love you know it's it's something that stayed with me for so long when you first had the conversations about the fundamental nature of you know commodities spit particularly crude and the u.s. and then comparatively to something like the yen when you talked about how crude could play into that could you just give those listeners out there just one more quick explanation of how you know whether it's the u.s. were producer now and how that plays into things when you talk about how the crude price could impact particularly the u.s. dollar yen absolutely so we the u.s. is one of japan's major suppliers to begin with so the price of oil right there is has a fundamental relationship between us and them also the petro dollar oil has been basically priced in dollars globally for decades now you know it's now it's starting to turn the euro and other currencies as well but no matter what when the japanese by oil from us they're converting yen to dollars you know so there's a currency risk right there is a currency cost if you will besides the fact that there's the price of oil and the thing is is that japanese don't have oil and there and made their one of the biggest economic you know manufacturing engines on the planet you know they're an island and they have such an output you know uh... with if oil runs in short supply the machines turn off and just that simple you know so i mean their economy is really based on you know what they can what their output can be in their output is obviously come out of the driven you know it's not just the materials to make things uh... you need the materials to to have the machines running without the machines running there are there's no products correct you know so and that's where oil becomes a very big fundamental you know it's also one of the reasons why you know world war two how did we you know strangle hold the japanese we had the embargo we cut off the oil supply and that's you know obviously how you know pro harbour happen in things like that you know but we we all know how history ended with that part but oil was a big part of it you know i mean so think about it if oil could be used for war it's also in economic thing and especially when you have currency risk at at the same point and with central banks are on the opposite fence you have the bank of japan that but by no means are they hawkish you know uh... just because they finally raised raise their rating you know from zero to a quarter percent you know uh... but uh... we're also just because we're going to start maybe cutting easing a little bit doesn't mean that we're dovish it just means that after raising a bunch were retracting a little bit you know and that relationship is how the u.s. dollar yen really be and i love that relationship like of all the currencies you have that dynamic you know i would say the best indicator is the markets oil is a great indicator for what you do with the u.s. dollar yen relationship no matter which what the trend is you know you can buy dips or sell rallies based off of that come out those commodity trends i appreciate the explanation because i think it just is it taught me so much and like you say such a great example but in terms of supplying the man currencies which drive in the action and i'm sure it applies to more than just that currency but i i appreciate that man that was quick nine minutes man i appreciate it will talk to you next week brother thank you tell me to care thanks so much to check out that tiger forks report you to tell you have a great easterman will be back