 The following is a presentation of TFNN, the Tiger Technician Hour with your host, Basil Chapman. Call now. Call free at 1-877-927-6648. Good morning, everyone. Basil Chapman on this Friday, the 2nd of February, well into the month of February from the way the market's acting. Let's go straight to it. The Dow is down 120 at 38,400. Now it's not just Apple, but Apple is down almost four points. It was down right to the 200 period exponential moving average, which has acted as support. But it's making basically almost like an A to B equals C to D, not Chapman notation. This is the lightning bolt pattern, which suggests that Apple could get into the 170s fairly soon. Now, with that said, let's just go straight to this. So the Dow, which is the Dow 30, it's not the Dow industrial, it hasn't been for a long time, it's just the Dow 30. It's a really great mix of everything that's going on in the economy. For me, it really tells a great story about the economy, made a new recovery at an all-time high, three days ago, 38,588, had a fantastic turnaround after the move yesterday to the upside. I have a technique that I call the Chapman Wave, Roman candle, you'll never see it in any book. It's one of the things that I've discovered out of the plethora of proprietary techniques that I've developed over the years. Well, not proprietary in the sense that I talk about it all the time, but publicly. But this almost, I like when you get this really long candle with a long wick and then halfway to either the bottom or halfway to the top is the fill in either the body of the candle to the upside or the downside. Then what happens is, this is a little bit more than that because the body is a little bit bigger. But what I said to subscribers yesterday, if the Dow is able to hold for about 60 minutes, about 38,500, that should pretend a test of the high of the day before, all-time high of 38,588. Well, we only got there for a little while at the close yesterday towards the close yesterday, and today we've gapped out. That just says that now it's the second day, so this is now basically have to wait for the full day. Anything can happen. I'm looking at the chance that it closes towards the lower end of the trading range right now. Most importantly, and let me just see this for a moment, just to see if I want to get a new position on here. Yeah, I'm going to do that, so let's do that. OK, so in the context of what we're looking at in terms of the Dow itself, the nine-period moving average, exponential moving average, look at this. This is the 90 MA right here. There we go, dollar INDU. Look at the way that nine-period moving average from October right here. I think that was actually November. Yes, November the 3rd, when that green line crossed positive, look what happened. It just kept going up and up and up, and to this moment right now, as we're talking, that green, even with that sharp pullback going to the lows of the 17th and 18th of January, that green line stood still as a green line, didn't change to pink. But now look what we're doing. What we're doing is we're making this choppy-choppy pattern, and this is the unbalanced volume. The unbalanced volume is suggesting that we've got to watch this very closely that by Wednesday or Thursday of next week, there is a chance that there could be a close underneath the black line, which is the 14-period moving average, and that's a 38,068. So a close under 38,000 in the first few days of next week is a possibility, and that's where we would start to see how the green line, the nine-period moving average, if it's getting closer and closer to the black line. When it finally flips pink and it will do that, when, I don't know. My suspicion is it'll be in about a week's time. That price, the doubt will be close to the 37,700. But all it's doing is basically a sideways consolidation. But look at the S&P. The S&P has made it, look at these tiny candles. This is an S&P that's trading at 49,017, 4,917. After a spectacular move from that October 27th low, and that nine-period moving average is still strong. But look at these tiny candles. It's telling us that there's some form of a distribution activity, and that it'll take a really strong move to turn this into support. So my thinking right now is that those round numbers are telling me, and I'll go through them again in a moment, telling me that fund managers, these are business big money, are putting in bids to get out or to get in because they missed it, but it's more hysteria than it is prudent thinking. And that's why we're seeing those round numbers. And that just says to me, this is going to be a cap for a little while. What we're seeing right now, yes, yes, the QQQQ, that's the same thing, just these three lines, green lines, nine-period moving average, black lines, 14, and the unbalanced volume is suggesting, look at this, right at the exact top, you've got the unbalanced volume turning down, but that nine-period moving average is still strong. So when you get Meta and Amazon, they're finally just digesting these gains, they could still hold very well, but I think the majority of stocks will start to pull back and you'll see some kind of a digestive phase. Look at the SMHs. SMHs trading up $1.77 at $189.35, still strong, even here it went for one day, it went pink, and look at it, it's still holding well, but you can see that the tensions are starting to show just a little bit of wear and tear, even though the nine-period moving average is still strong. Now, let's go to the IWM and you'll see, look, we went from green to pink to green, and then now today, we're seeing pink in the IWM, the Russell 2000, that's not a good sign, down to $294 at $192.56, and you can see basically this is the price of the IWM, right here as a line, not a candle, but a line, they can see basically fading with the right shoulder pattern at a peak, me right now, I shouldn't say fading, but starting to show deterioration. All right, I want to get out of this, there's a lot to talk about. In fact, I'll do this right now. So SLB is Slumberger. Slumberger, a number of people have asked me over the last week or so, is this a possibility, especially when a drop shop, you know, I think it was on Monday and there was a question, I said, I don't see this as good chart activity at all, but if you want to get in, I would just like take a little nibble right here, and then I got Jason sent this little epistle that goes into a whole thing that they can do, drilling now with very limited manpower, they can do it automatically, et cetera. That's fantastic, but I'm looking at the chart, and the chart says that this always, over the decades, you watch Slumberger, it's just when oil is going higher and oil service, the whole area of oil service, Slumberger is right there, but this is starting to fail, and if it's CTF, that is not a great pattern, the monthly chart is still pretty good. So I'll get back in a moment, and we'll talk about Slumberger, and I'm going to go to Barnes, et cetera, and get right back. 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The Gold Report. New subscribers get a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. Subscribe to Tom O'Brien's Gold Report newsletter now at TFNN.com. TFNN has launched the Tiger's Den, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours, the Tiger's Den, available to all tigers and tigers for just $1 for the year. There's no cash or added costs when you join our community of traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN.com. Free at 1-877-927-6648, internationally at 727-873-7618. Welcome back. So we're looking at summer, Jay, and all I can say is that the chart itself just says with that gap down and it's had three days since then to close and sharply above the gap down high and it hasn't done so stuck in the range. I'm gonna stay with what I was saying before. If you believe in it, then I'm gonna say, say, you could nibble here but the chart itself is saying that it needs a lot of work to have it ready that is sustainable and it does have big gaps to the upside and then it falls there. It's done a lot and gaps to the downside but that's all I can say about summer, Jay. So within that context, let me just go to the crude oil but they're all related to a certain extent even though this is a real service company. So exploration, a crude oil continuous contract made a big deal went under the 200 period moving average and at this particular point is just saying ho-hum. And I'm not sure about shorting. I'm not sure about going, I would just step aside, crude oil then it'll do something else before I can get my inclination right now is to say that the 68 level is a 72-61. A test of the 68 at the 200 period moving average is not impossible, it can do that but I would not have an opinion about to do anything right now. It's just stuck in the range. Missed a good opportunity at that PD using a close below or at least a pullback under the 200 period moving average to say that's where you could short it. Now let me go to my notes because I do wanna get to, so I kept meaning to mention this all week ever since I saw carbon at the Met. So it was a fantastic production. It really was, it was contemporary and often I think contemporary kind of puts things out of place they use the perspective of the period, the vernacular of the period. This was done extremely well. At the same time, the reason why I wanted to mention it is that the Met is in a very dire economic straits right now, but when you put in a production just think of this, it must have been there was a chorus, there were the onstage people. So that's maybe a hundred people. You have the people that do the stage management for the sets, it's like a hundred people at least. You've got your orchestra, almost a hundred people. You've got the expense of the conductor, that's almost like the orchestra itself sometimes. And then you got everything else that goes pertaining towards the, I saw this at the on Met Cinema. Saw it on screen, it was really nice. I liked doing that. I've seen a lot of productions and this one was really very good. And there's a difference between the art that people desire and cost-effectiveness. So when we're looking at, I wanted to just bring this up to say it was a fantastic production. Now I want to go to, I've been to quite a number of this year and more than ever before. I want to go, I've been to the Met Live, it's a fantastic experience. But I just wanted to point out that we are looking at X amount of money being utilized in the market for certain companies and the product that they produce. But sometimes companies can have fantastic everything. They just not recognize, they're not the in-group. They just, it doesn't, it just doesn't work that way. And other times they were doing everything right, like a meta right at this moment up at the stratosphere opens at 453.01 almost Mr. Round Number, had around number 398, just a couple of days ago. And here it is almost a hundred points higher. And so my point was that there are certain things in life that you look at and they are there for pleasure. Yes, you can live without going to come and you can live without the meta. It'd be very, very tough for many people, but you can. For a lot of people right now, something like meta platforms, this is the way, this is their contact, this is what they do. I don't have anything to do with Facebook myself. But it's, and therefore you can see that the money goes there and you can see the result. So I just wanted to point out the difference between pleasure and practicality. And now it's a practical that meta should be up at 476. Well, that's what the market's saying. And the market is what the price is. That's the price that the market can bear 476 right now. I'm gonna be watching to see if there are any round numbers. So I just want you to go quickly through this. I have seen so many round numbers. I always looking at round numbers whenever I, just for decades and decades. What does it mean? Usually I look for it at a major turn that I'm anticipating either up or down. And it just gives a clue because if those particular stocks that I'm looking at then move at a low of round numbers and together in unison they start to move higher, that just says to me, that is your flaw for each one of those. That's its flaw on the upside because tops rotate, they occur not in unison. They rotate very differently. Most importantly, I wanted to say that the, within the context of these round numbers, I don't ever remember actually seeing this many before. I mean, anything, any stock that anybody mentioned over the last couple of days, I'm talking about triple digital more, maybe not always triple digital, mostly triple digital more. I'm looking at round numbers. But if they take it out, it means it's important later on but it's not important anymore. But there are many that, let me just go to this one here. Toyota Motors is a good example. I had made a 202 round number. It went to fractionally higher the other day and here it is at 200. So it just says to me, have a look at that, keep it in mind. But I'm not making a career out of round numbers. I'm looking at them and saying, I've used them before, they've done very well. What happens next is very important but it's much more important to be looking at a Marriott at all-time highs, Marriott international results. It's much more important to be looking at Sintas. Yesterday, all-time high peak A, peak B, leg C. No, no, wait, hold on. Yeah, leg C, leg D in the weekly chart, all-time high. It's much more important to be looking at the, what is it? Uri, let's see where that is. I haven't looked at it for a couple of days. Uri had a 650 round number, and now it's trading at 647, but it's still holding this, the chapter we're falling at is formation right here. So I'm not gonna get too carried away but what is important to me is that I have this expression where the semiconductors go, that's where the general market is going, should go. And what are we looking at here? We're looking at the seven, and this includes NVIDIA, SMHs, having a decent data up to at 189.65, but the high that was made late January at 195.90, why has that not been taken out? So this says to me, it's a hint in my work that this is to say, watch this closely, we're gonna make a peak D in the weekly chart unless something spectacular happens by the end of the day. Therefore, all the semiconductors is this SMH giving me a clue to say some kind of a digestive phase is going to unfold. And my impression is we're all looking at that, but so far it could be just a high level displacement where you're talking about profit-taking. And like Microsoft, oh, look at that, Microsoft up 4.008, having hit a 415.32 all-time high, Chathamate of Roman Candle, this is the second down, I didn't even mention that to subscribers we're going to when I get back, dollars down 93 as a piece of 17, be right back. Currencies, commodities, and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving the volatility in equity markets across the globe, which is why it's a great time to try out Teddy Kegstad's Tiger Forex Report. Teddy Kegstad breaks down the forex markets every Monday using his 30 plus years of experience as a trading veteran of futures, forex, stocks, and options. 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Well, so Microsoft is trading at 407.82. I'm going to put in a rectangle right here from the high of 450.52 and the low in the 390s right there. And that to me says, we should be in this pattern for a little while. Is it a consolidation before it goes to new highs? And that's really what I needed to look at by the end of the day. Is this a rotational correction? Where, let me just look at SLX. This is the Steel Sector. You see the Steel Sector had a very nice balance but it's only a balance is giving back that 32, down 32, 69, 33. Let's look at Newcore, one of the great steel companies. Almost an all-time high recently. It's in this big rectangle that says you can rally two just under or just above the previous high. Then you got to be careful. And so far it's down $1.51 and 184.11. But this is a leg C in the weekly. So that is a good sign. And I think that's what you can see in many of the areas that some stocks in the same sector are not doing as well as others. And you've got a couple of leaders and you've got a lot of stallers. So that's really important. So let me just do this. Zip wants to know about Anet, A-N-E-T. I want to do that one because it's often, it's just been a steady climb. Yep, there it is. Oh, this is one that had 260, then 265, then 260 again, round numbers at highs, all-time highs. And then what does it do today? It pops up and it's at 275.90. So that just says to me, this is like a magnet area, 260, that even if it goes high, it's gonna come back. Even if it goes lower, it'll come back. It's important. But at any point, if it starts to close significantly under the last 260, that's this one right here, that 260 up it is. Yeah, 260. Under the last 260 level, it goes to 257, starts to fill in the gap. That could be it for a little while. So A-Rista Networks, yes, it's making a very nice move today. To me, the technicals are saying it's getting somewhat overbought on a short-term basis. The weekly chart is still looking fabulous, but even then, the unbalanced volume is very overboard. But the stochastic flat at 95% are no short, just to say, a little digestive phase is possible right here. And in fact, A, the GCSE right here, it's holding very nicely. Okay. Oh, looking to add or maybe options. Yeah, oh, and on the upside. Yeah, I think call options in this particular, but if anything, I'd be looking because you're talking about options as insurance. If you have it, I'd be looking at puts, but I'd wait until next week Tuesday, let's look at it together. Because at that point, you could get like a 275, if there's such a thing in the, not 270, but 275 put for the monthly, that'll be the twink, that'll be the 16th of February. To me, that should work out very well. Okay, but in the meantime, I know you're looking as if it's still strong and I agree with you. Just a couple of questions. Maybe when something happened, somebody said, that's terrible. Looking at someone. All right, I don't know what that applies to. Maybe it applies to someone in the den having an issue. Okay, all right, let's just get back to what I want you to look at here. Now, there's a chance that Larry's lost his voice. He hasn't been feeling great, but he's had COVID, but he's lost his voice. So he's kind of ready, but he's got no voice. So if this program is gonna be repeated at one o'clock, I just don't think I'm gonna be around to be able to do it live. I would love to do it live because this is such an interesting session there's so much to go through. That'd be nice to have another hour to go through it. But in the meantime, I wanna do this real quickly. Look, wheat. Wheat has got this Chapman Wave down channel. It's gone into the inside track. I call this the inside track. Look, make that green, make that red. So this is pink right there. It's gone into this. It's up one at 602 and a half. But as I'm looking at it, it's making a low lows and low highs. But this is the first time that the magnies improved. The stochastic is okay at 59. The on balance volume is quite good. And the nine pin moving average could be close to turning up. So if wheat is able to close that's on a daily basis, that's on a daily basis. Above 614 right now it's at 602. That'd be a break of this Chapman Wave inside track repellent zone. And if the nine pin moving average turns green, then we can go to the next resistance up at the top which is at 617 and a half in the continuous contract. Soybeans, this is trading very poorly down at 511.98 and a quarter. It's got the dreaded H pattern. It's already failed, it's gone below. This is not a good looking pattern, it looks to me like the 23, 23.6, 23, what is that? Yeah, 23.6 level would be 1184. Looks to me like that's gonna be a key support level. If it takes that out, then monthly which has gone to a peak D and the nine period could very well in February turn negative. So this is something to watch. Corn, corn is trading also very negatively. It is on the 200 period moving average. It's still there for four sessions. This is four weeks. And it doesn't look very strong right now. What it needs to hold 435. It's at 444 in the continuous contract. A close under that says, oh, low, low, low, high. Now there's 200 period moving average in the weekly chart at 443. It's gonna be a magnet line. It can go under it, it'll probably come back and test it, you can go over it and test it. This is really 443 is your magnet line. And the monthly chart says, oh, low, low, low, low, high. Not too much to see here on the positive side. Sugar is all part of the DB agricultural fund, which we have. And it's actually doing very nicely today. It's stuck at a peak D. Remember in the chapter wave, you want to get peak A, peak B, peak C. The fourth highest peak is peak D. That's where other things can happen. That's when it can stall and it has and the 200 period moving average where it is right now, 23.78. This is the sugar number 11 continuous contract. It's stall there, it is holding okay, but it hasn't got the gumption or the strength right now to get to the 25, watching it closely because a close under 22.80 says, uh-oh, that's a big problem. Next question I had was, so now look at this, this is interesting. Cocoa, so Cocoa is screaming to the upside. This is a peak, this is a, oh my. 4.835, 4.8, oh, oh, look at this, we're in a leg D. Remember in chapter wave, we want to get to a D. That's where other things can happen. That's your target. If it's a buying signal, upgrade to buy mode. So that's your A, that's your B, that's your C and there's your D. We're in leg D right now. Leg D in the day, leg D in the monthly. Only a leg A in the month, the week is deep. This is still a leg A from the low of 2020 in 2022. That's peak dollar, high period. Unbelievable, 2025, 2,250. Cocoa, so let's have a look at Starbucks, we'll be right back. The Gold Report. As a precious metal, gold is still king. It continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market, the US futures market and the Shanghai Gold Exchange. The Gold Report. Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly gold report every Monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the XAU, HUI, GDX, the Dollar, Bonds, the South African Rand, as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy-sell recommendations. The Gold Report. New subscribers get a 30-day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. Subscribe to Tom O'Brien's Gold Report newsletter now at TFNN.com. Are you ready to take your trading to the next level? Introducing Tom O'Brien's award-winning newsletter, Market Insights, your key to successful active trading. 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The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor, foresight fund services, LLC. This program is brought to you by Vista Gold. Traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. Yeah, so we were looking at, yeah, just for those of you looking at the E-mini, this is now E in the one-minute chart, leg F in the five and leg D, finally got your leg D in the 10-minute chart. Trading very given, yeah, it's getting back almost all. The 830 smashed to the downside, lost and now it's coming back very nicely. So that's, this is what I'm looking at and I don't know if I want to get in front of anything here. So we have longs, we have two short positions, really tight, no, we haven't got, we've got one short, sorry, one short position, semiconductor short position, tiny, tiny little loss, it actually made money and then it made, I raised the stock, took a tiny little loss. And one of the reasons is, as I say, I'm looking at this to say, are there semiconductors telling us that semiconductors have a fantastic close today? That's going to be something else. But if they sort of stall here, it says this rotational type correction someone said in the den, I think Jimmy said it, where was it, he said, Nvidia, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Sunshine, Apple, Google, Tesla, Moonshine, yeah, that's exactly what's happening right now. So, okay, so, saw about three days ago, must have had some kind of story out, earnings or whatever it is and has screamed up to about the 98th level, now it's trading at 92. So if I'm correct about the way Coco is acting, I don't know, there could be hedge, there could be all sorts of things, but wow, this is telling me that the whole thing, continuous contract, yeah. This is really something, what a move, in such a short timeframe. We're looking at just from January, wow, can't believe it, look at this. January the 9th is trading at 4,092 in the continuous contract, we're at 4,969 right now, that is very, very strong. So we'll see what happens. Meantime back at the ranch, what we're looking at is, live cattle, LC, live cattle, just being on a very strong move to the upside, alternate count, so this is, we've got a GSAS C here in the daily chart, a B in the weekly chart and a nice balance from that major peak F top at continuous contract high up in the 195 area, comes down to, this is a big move, down to 165 and now it's trading about 50%, it's regained about 50% at 163, this looks very good and live hogs, whatever they call it, LH, peak A, peak B, peak C, yeah, this is actually running very nicely, 97.29 is the 200-period moving average, it's at 83.87 in the continuous contract and it's called zine, not live but lean hogs. Yeah, so and the monthly chart doesn't look that great but the weekly chart says it could rally from here to about the resistance that it keeps going to and then gets repelled. So wood is the iShares global timber and forestry ETF and that has had a very sharp move to the downside and that's international timber and forestry ETF, this is not so great, we're looking at right under the 200-period moving average as we speak, high grade copper, this is now trading down sharply, ABC failed at that C so far, right I told you for weeks and weeks I've been saying, look at the 200-period moving average, the magnet line, it goes over, it goes under, it goes over but it keeps coming back and right now it is in the weekly chart fractionally under it and the daily fractionally under 3.84 area, it's at 3.83, so we've got to look at that, what else I had it all written down, oh, that's right. So banks, so look at the XLF, the XLF, trading at 38.90 up eight cents, it had a really strong move from the October low, it's gone from the 31s to the 387 points, it's just over a 20% gain and the weekly chart, all the technicals are strong, on balance of arms a little overboard but the stochastic at 96% is exactly what you want, that's a good sign and you've got the bull formation in the monthly chart that says 41.70, the all-time high on the January of 2022 down to 29, it's a big pullback in October, this is a good comeback and it takes its time but each leg up has been quite considerable and I'm suggesting to you that in 2024, we will see the 41s, in fact, higher than 41s hit but here's the issue, KRE and the question came up, what about the regionals? Well, it's really important for mom and pop banks, not today, I wouldn't call them mom and pop banks technically but just in terms of the huge money center banks is a mom and pop banks, S&P regional banking ETF trading up 31 cents today, 48, 47, right on the 200 period exponential moving average, trying to treat that as support, almost a chapter of Roman candle there, so far the action's been pretty good but what's really important, the 53.90 200 period moving average in the weekly chart has been a repellent, it should become a magnet one more time and it hasn't been, I want to see the KRE moving strongly with the XLF, I need to see the banking system moving very, very well to the upside and so far there's a very big divergence, it's almost a divergence between IWB, this is the Russell 1000, which takes the Russell 3000, the best of the 3000, puts them together, testing the most recent all time high, actually it's all time high, 270.66, 267.13 was the high, back in IE, I think January 2022 and the IWM, so that's the 1000, but the 2000 is looking, ah, doesn't look good at all, it's really struggling, so that's the same kind of difference but I want to see in, we're now just going into February, I would like to see by the first or second week of March, no matter what happens in the interim, I very much want to see the IWM trading on a weekly basis with 210 as support and we're at 193, that's a big ask, that's above the 205.49 high of December of this year, of this past year and that would start a leg D in the weekly chart, 205.50 would start a leg D and then that should start, continue going higher, so I don't like this divergence but it's important in the market to recognize it and then to trade around it and do whatever it is, so the reason why I had a question about why would you think of shorting the best of the best like the semiconductors which you always talk about as leading the market is because if I get a good sense of what the semis are going to do next, if they are going to be weak, then there's a really good chance that this will be where the weakest indices like the IWM gets the big test and if it starts to break key support levels it can go down very sharply, much sharper and that gives you a sense of how you can be in the best but you could actually increase the shorting positions in something like the IWM if it fails but it hasn't yet. So this is okay, going to break coming up then I've got a final segment because the dollars now come back very nicely it's only down 47 SMEs of 28, be right back. Are you ready to take charge of your financial future? TFNN is your gateway to the world of trading and investing, whether you're starting out or scaling up, TFNN empowers traders and investors of all skill levels with top-notch investing systems, strategies and techniques. It's time to protect and grow your money with insight you can trust. Join us live Monday through Friday during market hours for exclusive content that moves with the markets. At TFNN we bring the trading floor to you. Our seasoned hosts are here to answer your calls and questions live on the air. Check out the Tiger's Den for just $1 and follow us on YouTube and become part of our vibrant community. 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How many have not, but the number that I've seen at highs or within a day or two of their highs, it just, I don't remember ever seeing this before except in the housing sector back in 2007, 2008 period. But I don't think there's a correlation yet at all. So the cash bills are still strong. Short-term, it's just like the digestive moment and we're gonna be watching it very closely. I'll see you, otherwise I'll see you on Monday. Have a great rest of the day and a great weekend. Check out my video called, I need you to see it. Thank you.