 Okay, we're back. We're live. It's two o'clock block and this is Community Matters. We have a special show about a special program. Am I right? That's Marina Poon. She is the President of the Hong Kong Business Association. Hong Kong Business Association. It's a very active organization here in Hawaii, right? Yes. And she has a program we're going to talk about in a minute. And that's Jerry Sumida. Jerry Sumida is a principal at Carl Smith Ball, and he is one of the founders, I get this right? Yes, right. Of the Hong Kong Business Association, which is HAKBA. Right. HAKBA. H-K-B-A-H. That's right. Yeah. So on the 25th, which is only two weeks. Ten days away. It's going to be this program at Lawniakea, which you've organized. And it's about Hong Kong and China. It's about trade. It's about business. It's about all the things we need to be concerned about here in Hawaii. And that's really to your credit that you're presenting this program. But we're here today to find out why and what. We know how. Well, we don't know how. We'll find out more about how. We know where. We know when. It starts on, what, Sunday night to 24th. There are some events. Yeah. And then it goes all day and all through the evening on Monday the 25th of February. Yes. Okay. Why are you doing this, Marina? Okay. This is my thinking at that time before I started it. I was, as you know, you saw the TV all the time about the China and U.S. trade had conflict. Yeah. So people call it trade war. But I don't want to call it a trade war, but it's a conflict. So back and forth. And I thought this put us a U.S. resident or businessman. It's just in a very odd position. So especially like China. If you want to do trade with China, that position is odd. Yeah. A lot of trades with China actually will be surprised. Not Hawaii, but a lot of trade. But Hawaii should be interested. Hawaii should know about these things, participate at least in the conversation. Yes. So, and I thought that because also I am a Chinese immigrant from Hong Kong, and I also thought is put us in an awkward position because of they've been fighting for the trade. So I hope that we can put in a program so everybody have a dialogue so we can talk about it. And hopefully we can find a solution, you know, to do this whole package. You have a Chaka Block program here. I mean, you have speaker after speaker. I know. You have a real, you know, this is a. We have actually. Parade of talent. Yeah. Eight out of town speaker. Three of them are directly from Hong Kong. And five of them is full from U.S. mainland. Yeah. So when we do a show or a movie, we always ask ourselves, what is the takeaway? What takeaway do you want people to get from this program on the 20th? Yes. It's very clear that we have two side of it, morning and afternoon. The morning side, we are focused on the U.S. and China trade policy and relation. So hopefully that the audience or the participant will learn and or participate in the dialogue and conversation after the panel they addressed it. And hopefully that we can find a common solution to solve at least the Hawaii and Hong Kong, China problem, not necessarily the national problem, right? So we cannot control. But in the afternoon, it's a practical business advice by all our speakers, including Gerald Sabina. I would expect nothing less. Yes. And we're going to talk about that in a minute. So you're calling this the 2019 U.S.-Hong Kong-China form. It's not the first one? No. Interestingly, the first one we did is called U.S.-Hong Kong forum 2010. The second one in 2014, we called it Hong Kong-China forum. Now we put that together. U.S.-Hong Kong-China forum. So what I gather from what you say is, right now we have this trade, what do you call it, conflict, trade conflict, not a war but a conflict. And business people who might otherwise deal with China might be intimidated by that. They may not want to go there or they might hedge their bets, so to speak, because of who knows what's going to happen about the trade conflict. So I think what you're saying is you're offering advice to them on what kind of expectations they should have and what kind of moves they should make to better engage with trade with China. Yes. I thought that through our dialogue, maybe they can find a way to manage it, at least if it's not a solution. To give them comfort, to give them a drive, to give them solutions. Right. That is your word. Right. Solution. That's one. Who should come to this program? Oh, everyone interested in the international relations, the first thing first. Second is anybody interested in Hong Kong, China and U.S. trade and business, how to learn the other side. And hopefully that we can present our side to the other side better too. And one more question that we need to ask you is this is the Hong Kong Business Association HACPA. But why Hong Kong and not China itself? Why isn't there an organization so like yours, which is based in China and Beijing, Shanghai, that would put this program on? Wouldn't we get a more direct connection that way? It's a good question. Since I only affiliate with Hong Kong Business Association, so obviously I will do that. If I have another organization affiliate, maybe I will suggest the other organization. Why don't we put on this? Okay. We do what we can. Yes. Yes. What's the website that people should, I'm sorry, Jerry. You can also remember though that historically when trade with China began to develop after normalization, Hong Kong was looked upon as a gateway. And even China looked upon Hong Kong as the way in which both to bring in foreign direct investment and business as well as with China ultimately to go out into the broader world. Now Hong Kong is a little bit less strong in that particular regard. And you talk about Beijing directly, Guangzhou, Shanghai, etc., other cities in China. But Hong Kong has always been a pivotal role and really still is in many cases. If you look upon the internationalization of the RMB as a currency, Hong Kong is partly the site where they're trying to build up that particular foundation. So when the Hong Kong Business Association of Hawaii was first established, part of it was because of Hong Kong's strength itself, but also part of it was as a gateway into China. So at this point as Burina indicates, there is a U.S.-China business council based in Washington and so forth. But from the Hawaii perspective, the Hong Kong Business Association or Business Association of Hawaii or HAKPA as you call it, really has been the focal point. And it's just expanded the program now rightly so into sort of greater China. Okay, I'm so glad to bring him here. Well, let me add this, Jerry. My perception, you can agree or not, is that Hong Kong, whatever Beijing has in mind about the future of Hong Kong, the people in Hong Kong want to continue as the gateway to China. That's their aspiration. And they feel strongly about it because that's the way it's been for hundreds of odd years. And in fact, de facto, they deliver a lot of foreign investment into China and they organize investment arrangements that happen in China. So they're very well equipped and they're very active right now and they want to do it. They want to continue to do it forever into China in the future. Now there are those leaders in Beijing who may not feel that way. From time to time, I read Frank Cheng in the Wall Street Journal out of Hong Kong, I think. From time to time, you see little points of resistance by Beijing. They say, no, you stay there, Hong Kong. We have our plans for Hong Kong and you are not the masters of your destiny. We are. But that may or may not carry because the real momentum here is that Hong Kong was, is, and to a large extent, will continue to be the gateway business-wise to China. Am I right? Partly. I think now what has happened quite frankly is that you've got direct lines to other parts of China from the outside. And that's not just North America but also throughout Asia and in Europe. So Hong Kong is in an evolving situation to put it nicely. You do have the, you know, two systems, one country approach which some people would deem to be eroding within Hong Kong. Singapore has looked very much as a potential counterpoint if not rival to Hong Kong. So we're in a state of flux. Hong Kong still is a major way in, but it's not exclusive. And as you know, right across the border, there was a now a metropolis of Shenzhen. Previously, it was just a relatively small village. And now it's one of the largest, largest cities in China. As direct connections was everywhere in the world. That's right. And it's developing to an NIT and an AI powerhouse. He's really, really right. He has a lot of knowledge on that. You'll be talking about these things in the program, right? Yes. He will be one of our speakers. And you actually will be our moderator. Yeah. I want to moderate the panel on One Belt, One Road. That's what I want to do. Thank you. So what is the what is the website where people can see the detail of this program? Actually, they can go on the Eventbrite, which is the one that we put on for registration. So they can go on the 2019 US Hong Kong China forum.eventbrite.com. Okay. 2019 US Hong Kong China Forum. And here's a picture of what you will find fairly complete. A lot of activities. This is the I'm showing you the picture of the activities for the 25th. Yeah. And this one is for the evening before plenty of activities on the 24th in the evening. It's a Chinese New Year gala press our organization 23rd anniversary plus a welcome dinner to our out of town guests. Yeah, come here by choice. Also, Xin Yan Kuala. Xin Yan Kuala. Thank you. Okay. Jerry, I want to talk about our panel. Okay. Okay. So we have a panel on One Belt, One Road, which is a piece of fascination for me in terms of, you know, Chinese policy. And it is being played out. It was announced what not too long ago is being played out now in with great speed and robust energy everything coming out of China's robust energy. And we have a panel to discuss this. So what's the take away from our panel? And then we'll talk about the detail. Well, we haven't had the panel yet. So we're not quite sure. But as you see it now, well, as I see it now, first off, one of the questions is in your right, One Belt, One Road, BRI as is now more formally called or informally called is a subject of major interest in both positive as well as skeptical, depending on which circle you're talking about. But it is, from one perspective, a very visionary, long range program plan initiative really to create or recreate or enhance two major trade routes from really the western part of or the eastern part of China, all the way through into Europe, one the northern so-called northern route, and one a sea based route, the southern route, maritime route, which will cover almost all the countries in the world with the exception of North America directly. Anyway, it even penetrates into Africa. And it is supposed to encourage trade and along that economic development and prosperity along those trading routes. And it is not just trade, but if you take it in its fullest explained extent, it's international customs, use of artificial intelligence, transportation networks, power plants, other kinds of infrastructure, so forth and so on throughout all of those countries. An investment. And an investment. Large investment. Very large investment and a very long timeframe. That's one side of it. On another side, it's a question of whether or not in effect it is China seeking to spread its geopolitical strategic plans throughout all of that area and essentially rival North America in short. And they're also both financial, international financial as well as national financial and geostrategic military implications that have been drawn from a lot of this. So it's not a road actually. Not, no, not a road is, we would know it, a route perhaps. And it's not a belt either. But it's an idea that sounds to me like from Xi Jinping's point of view, it's a great idea. It is. It's an idea whose time has come for China. Well, yeah, possibly for China too, although it is visionary. You have to take that very much into account and it's been compared somewhat to the Marshall plan. Although quite frankly, the two are quite different, both in terms of historical contacts and also in terms of objectives. I mean, this is a long range infrastructure plan to assist China and its economy. Well, but there are, there are challenges. There are problems. There are potholes on the road, so to speak. And one of them I keep reading about is the reaction, the pushback that China gets when it encourages a large infrastructure project. It makes huge loans. Next thing you know is the, the host country can't pay the loan back and China winds up owning the project. And this could be a strategic, critical, strategic, important project like a harbor. Right. And so I hope we are going to discuss that in this panel. It should be discussed and come up because that is, there is an issue, there is pushback. And one of the questions quite frankly is, you know, to what extent is all of this a, a clearly thought out and systematically implemented geostrategic political policy of the Chinese government or how much of this is a broad initiative with a lot of different kinds of players with some ways of doing things that really are not necessarily or have not been thought out but end up with a few very difficult situations such as the pushbacks you've been talking about. Yeah. I mean most of these, these projects are loaned projects. They're not grants, they're loan projects and major infrastructure projects. So you're talking about railways, bridges, dams, harbors, port facilities, so forth and so on. And the basic idea is that a project is decided upon in a particular country and supposedly is part of the BRI initiative. I will build and enhance to that. A loan is made for the project. Sometimes it's 80 percent of the project costs, sometimes a little bit less, but 20 percent equity, 80 percent loan is, is relatively standard. The loan is made to the government. The government uses the loan proceeds to buy the infrastructure equipment, services and equipment. Generally speaking it's a, and by the way the loan is from a Chinese policy bank in which there are four major ones. The loan proceeds are used to essentially hire Chinese contract companies with Chinese laborers who come in to build the project and then from the operations of the project the revenues are to pay back the loan. When you have a project that costs a fair amount of money and the revenues anticipated from that project are much less than either anticipated or hoped for then you have that kind of for situations. Very much like borrowing money from the bank here and not being able to pay for it, the remedy is foreclosure. And that's what has happened in at least one major well publicized project in Sri Lanka. There may be another one in the airport. There was a port project, there may be an airport project that goes similar and that's caused pushback from a number of countries in Asia as well as Southeast as well as South Asia and in Africa. Well those two problems that we've talked about, one is the pushback on the Chinese who wind up owning the project through their business style on this. And the other that is kind of troublesome is the lack of coordination among the private interests that are involved under the general umbrella. So what that says to me is corruption and these things may offer opportunities for the individual players to do corrupt deals. And I'm hoping that we'll discuss that too on the 25th. I'm looking forward to that. And I want to stop now because there's miles to go before we sleep, maybe a whole world miles to go. And this will be a very interesting panel. Some people think this is going to be the most interesting panel in Marina's program. What do you think, Jerry? Well, with J.U. as moderator, it has to be. Okay, Marina, what do you think of Jerry and the panel? What do you think of the program in general? How important is this program to you, to us, you know, and for that matter, to the connection between the two countries, the U.S. and China? I think I find the perfect panels for the right topic. So as you said, this is America may not be in that round, but I hope that the panel will also address how we can be involved in. Yeah, the bottom line is that this, you know, it is a visionary. If carried out in the way the vision would suggest, it could be the biggest thing that has ever happened for China since the 14th century anyway. And America should learn from what China is doing. That sounds like the table is turned, but the table is turned. America should learn from what China is doing. But the war is wrong, so it will come back. Well, that's not what Thomas Friedman said, but hey, that's okay. Well, one of the other things you might mention that might be discussed is, in fact, what is the response of other countries, including the United States, including the recently enacted Build Act, that is directly in response to the BRI initiative. So we can discuss that. Oh, gee, I'm getting so excited about this program. Tell them again how they can sign up. Tell them again the message you want to leave with them in this discussion. I hope everybody will find a time to come to us, especially afternoon panel. Jay will be there to moderate it. The website that you can learn about this program is 2019 US Hong Kong US HK China dot event bright dot com. Yeah, or Hakba. Oh, okay. Hakba, for the name of the organization, that'll find the event bright. It'll find the information. Hong Kong Business Association, the Hakba. Jerry, you always somehow get the last word. Why don't you take the last word now? Come and participate in the conference. It is going to be interesting. And as Marina indicated, there are two parts of it. One is to look at a whole US China trade situation, and whether you, whatever you call it, a war conflict or whatever, they're really critical issues. And Hawaii is involved, at least indirectly, if not more in all of that. And we do have a short term as well as a long term interest in all of that. And the second part is different subject matters. BRI is one of them, but there are other aspects too. And that kind of fills out the broader set of relationships with China. Trade is a big focus in the morning, but then the broader set of implications, they go in many cases like BRI beyond China are of interest. So it'll be a very well rounded program. And I think that quite frankly, the Hawkeye is to be really commended for bringing this kind of discussion with this kind of breadth and expertise, as you said, from both Hong Kong as well as from the US mainland to participate in this. And this is pretty powerful for Hawaii. Thank you, Brina Poon, for putting the program on. This is very important to Hawaii. Thank you for having us. Thank you. Thank you, Brina Poon and Jerry Sumida. Aloha. Thank you. Aloha.