 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrader.com Weekend Update Show. Hope everybody is doing great. Hope everybody is having a wonderful weekend. Freakish weather here in the Northeast of New Jersey, pretty much all the way down the Northeast. It's 65 degrees. It's January the 12th. It's 65 degrees. Absolutely crazy. Mother nature is off the chain. I mean literally off the chain. If you are looking for the most significant structure in the world, it's Mother Nature. Unfortunately right now the crazy fires is going on in Australia. The earthquakes that's going on in Puerto Rico and this crazy wild weather all over the place. It's just amazing. It's something that nobody can predict and nobody can guard. So hopefully everybody is staying safe. Hopefully everybody is enjoying this crazy weather up and down the Northeast because we know it's not going to be like this forever. And I know it's probably going to down back to the 30s very, very soon. But you know, such as life, right? Unpredictable such as life. So let's talk about the markets. So as everybody knows, for all you guys who have been watching this broadcast for a long time, you kind of know I trade the same stocks over and over again. I trade beta, probably 95% of all my trades are the same names. Tesla, Amazon, Netflix, NVIDIA, Apple. You know, it's Alibaba, Facebook, Square. It's the same names, right? It's pretty much the same names. And the reason why I trade the same names, and I've said this for years and years and years, I believe the higher price stock goes, right? If you notice, all these stocks are all triple digits, generally triple digits. And the higher price goes, especially like an Amazon or something, that is represented by less retail, right? Because again, realistically, most of retail is longer term investors or they're learning the craft or learning how to trade in their infancy stages. And they just can't simply afford to trade an Amazon or Google or a Tesla. So they generally tend to, you know, tend to attract the smaller names. That's why you see 3,000 people, for example, in a small cap alert service because 3,000 people is a lot more retail represented than, well, people trading Amazon. And this is the reality. It's nothing good or bad. That's just the reality. And the reason why I trade the same names over and over again, they're highly predictable because of the lack of participation of retail. So most traders, right? Now, I don't care if you have a $2,000 account for a $2 million account, everybody can afford to buy a $5 stock, a $20 stock. But most people cannot afford to trade with any type of capacity like a Tesla. We'll get to Tesla in a second because the price is approaching $500 a share. So for somebody to buy 1,000 shares with $2 stock or to buy, for example, 40 shares of Tesla, it's apples to oranges. And that's why most people, most retailer are not trading to this capacity at these prices. The higher the price goes, the less retail is going to be represented. And the higher probability you can figure out once technical analysis gets confirmed, you can figure out most times than not what's going to happen next. And for all you guys who have been watching, I love Tesla. My favorite stock to trade, okay? By far, it's my favorite stock to trade, both long, both short. So the idea that Tesla is on this big run is amazing. And nobody, again, nobody could have predicted this big run, okay? Absolutely not. I've been taking bits and pieces. If you've been watching this weekend, the video throughout the week, you see, I've been just taking pieces of trades on Tesla to the upside, to the downside, mostly to the upside now. But it's nothing new to me. The problem is when you're a new trader, okay, and you see the shiny penny. When you see the shiny penny on the floor, you are tripping over yourself to pick it up. So I saw a lot of posts this week on, you know, the different various social media platforms talking about new traders, okay, that never even looked at Tesla's direction. They are sipping the Kool-Aid to such a degree that they're completely deviating from what they've been doing. Okay, whether it's the mid-cap market, the futures market, the small-cap market, whatever the case may be, and they're taking all their attention to Tesla, the shiny penny, this sexy trade. Remember, all these years have been saying it's not the sexy trade, it's the boring lethargic trade that you want, okay? You want the highly predictable trade. You want the trade that you could control. You don't want the trade that you've never had any experience with. You have no, you know, you have no track record with. You have no expectations of what the stock can do when it stalls out, but yet you are attracted because, again, it's Times Square, right? It's the Times Square. It's the whole theory. Somebody comes from Wichita, Kansas, the first time to Manhattan, they're going to Times Square. It's the flashy lights, the excitement, the energy, right? They want to be involved. Again, nobody lives in Times Square, right? The richest people in New York are living in the Upper East Side and Tribeca, right? All these areas that tourists are not going to because, again, that's the area of safety. That's where you want to live. It's quiet there. Life is predictable there. It's everyday business. When you're attracted to something because it's sexy, you lose control, right? You lose control. The FOMO, right? The fear of missing out kicks into the highest degree. And next thing you know, you are trading as a victim. You don't even know it. So consciously, you are trading as a victim. You're not trading as the aggressor, as the hunter. And unfortunately, I saw a lot of new traders this week talking about, oh, my God, I can't believe. I got destroyed in Tesla. I got sure trying to pick a top and then I got run over trying to take the bounce and it kept on going lower. And again, how could somebody trade something like this? For anybody who's been trading Tesla for years, okay? We know this is normal. Maybe the average true range has expanded, okay? And maybe this is a run that nobody could have possibly predicted and shorts are just getting manhandled, you know, for the most part, right? But this is normal, okay? This is normal. And here's one of the advantages and this is what I've been talking about for years that, you know, you're not trying to trade the sexy stock. You're trying to trade the most boring group possible. And ironically, the most boring group for me, okay? And anybody, everybody's been trading the live webinar, we'll tell you. Although we trade the most aggressive names, okay? Your Amazons, your Apples and so forth and so on, your Teslas. These stocks are the most predictable and easiest to control because our familiarity with them, because our relationship with them. And again, not every day can put in an expansion candle of $20, $25. Most days, maybe an expansion candle will be $3, $4 a share. But the, it's the ability to know what its tendencies are over and over, day in, day out, has kind of led us to this point. So for a trader who's coming out for the first time ever and saying, I'm going along, you know, Tesla, it's going to $500. Yeah, probably will, right? Probably will. And we'll talk about the specifics of what's probably going to happen next in a few minutes. But the point is a new trader that's never traded Tesla down here or down here or down here or down here. You don't know what the stock is capable of doing. You don't know the proper tier size that you should be trading the stock or you should be trading the stock at all. Again, a lot of people think that every single stock is for everybody and it's so wrong. Again, if you're a new trader, again, think about all the obstacles that are in front of you. And this is kind of how it correlates to Tesla. When you're a new trader, there's a better chance than not you're underfunded. There's also a better chance than not that you are probably, again, if your only exposure is social media, chances are not you're probably really absorbing bad information for the most part. Let's be honest, you probably are. You have no risk tolerance. Your process is very, very small right now because, again, it's not your fault. You're trading less than two, three years. So you're not exposed yet to what the market has to offer you. The market structure is still new to you. The way a stock's tendencies will be new to you. You have no risk management. Again, you're still in the hopey mode. I hope to God, please God, let the stock go. I'll do anything. Let the stock work out. So you're not fully in control of what you're doing. Now throw in, think about this logically, now throw in one of the most aggressive stocks in the market fueled by the most raw emotions on both sides. Tesla Q, Tesla's going to zero, Tesla's going to 5,000. And this has been going on for year after year after year. And this is one big recipe for an absolute disaster. So when you're an absolute new trader and the only exposure you have is to your little world. And the next thing you know, you step up out of that comfort zone. Again, that comfort zone could still probably be bad for you. You're probably still not taking advantage of your individual space. But you step out of that comfort zone. At least what you know. It's the theory of the lesser of the two evils. So you already exposed the lesser of two evils. You're still not getting anywhere. But now you turn to yourself and say, well, wait a minute. The grasses might be green on the other side. What is this Tesla that everybody's talking about? And you didn't trade it here. You didn't trade it here. You didn't trade it here. You didn't trade it here. You didn't trade it here. Now you're trading here because now you hear everybody talking about it. And again, there's a difference between trading and there's a difference between gambling. When you're trading, you're looking for the highest probability of the fine risk that you can control a possible next measured move. This is what's happening here. This is what's happening here and here and here and most here. Once you start getting into the airspace, you've lost control. You've completely lost control. Because remember, a breakout is not because the stock has taken out highs. A breakout is because the stock is taking out a channel. The longer the distribution, the longer the base, the highest probability move that's going to happen. So when the highest probability move that's going to happen is ready here and over here and over here. Up here, you are again almost in the market God's hands. And you have no safety net. Okay, your stock now is $30, $40 away from the quote unquote breakout area. And now you're in hope mode. You're in prayer mode because the stock, when it goes against you, you don't know what it's average to ranges. You're still discovering what the tangible value of market structure as a general hold is. So you have no business being in a stock like this because again, this is not fitting your personality. This is not fitting your experience level. All this is doing is fueling your injection of FOMO. I don't want to miss out. Tesla's going to go to 500. Oh my God, look at somebody's buying 700 calls. Oh my God, somebody's buying January of 2021, 900 calls. I can't miss out. I can't miss out. This is all happening subconsciously. And all you're doing is putting yourself in a position that you are putting on all risk versus a small area of reward. Because again, you have no relationship with the trade. You don't know what it's capable of. All you're seeing is of what the stock has already done. And now you're hoping, right? You're hoping and praying that when this musical chair game ends, and again, who's to say it will, right? Like I personally think Tesla probably still has one more run at 500. And that run maybe extends to 525, maybe 550. Or again, maybe, well, Tesla starts building below this channel here and starts going all the way down to 450. We don't know yet, right? We don't know yet. But at least I have a game plan. At least I've been trading Tesla for years. At least I've been trading Tesla for the most part pretty much every day for the last two, three years, whether it's long, whether it's short. So again, I have no excitement levels in this trade. I have no expectations because I'm still waiting for confirmation of what's going to happen next. I'm not a big guesser, right? Maybe it goes to 600. Maybe it goes to 400. We don't know, right? We have absolutely no idea. So I'm waiting. The problem is the new trader, again, they are frustrated because they have lack of process. They are frustrated because they have lack of capital. They are frustrated because they missed the train. They're trying to play catch up. And the worst thing you could probably do or possibly do is play catch up on something, okay? That you have no history with. You have no opinion on. You have no directional bias of which way the stock should be trading. Not the way you want to show you traded, but should be trading. And all you're doing is putting out chips on the table and you're hoping that the stock performance for the past two weeks will carry on for the next couple of weeks that you are in the trade. And unfortunately, it's just not the way trading works, okay? It is a recipe for a disaster, okay? You are putting yourself in a position of victim instead of predator. That's the way it is. Again, you don't see the gazelle, right? You don't see the gazelle chasing the line or the, you know, or the tiger. You see the tiger chasing the gazelle. And when you are chasing a stock that just put up 150 point move with no history of price action or measure potential, you are. You are the gazelle. Subconsciously, you might even know that. But you're conscious, okay? It's just not letting you let this trade go. You want to participate. You want to tell the story. You want to make the quick gains. And the problem is you are putting yourself and you're putting your feet in the line of fire because, again, the trade is already done. The value is already gone. And all you're trying to do is be that greedy pig. They just had that four-course meal and trying to lick the last pieces of the crumbs when the waiter is taking away your plate. So, again, it's very, very important, guys, no matter how you are trading, okay? Stick to your comfort zone, okay? Tesla is not doing anything different than all of us have been trading Tesla for years have seen. You're just now exposed because it's sexy. You're now exposed because you don't want to miss the next run. Now you're exposed because the next move could be to 6,700. This is not, again, stick to your lane, guys, okay? I don't go out and trade crypto. I don't go out to trade futures. I don't go out to trade Bitcoin. I don't, you know, most part, I don't look at small caps or mid caps because, again, there might be aggressive value there. There might be stocks going up 300, 400 percent every single day. That's not for me. That's not my comfort zone. I don't have a relationship with those stocks. I don't know the price action of the stocks. I don't know when the stock stalls out. If the stock is up 210 percent on the day and it goes up only 20 cents after I buy it, well, how do I know it keeps on going high? Well, you hope the guests and pray. Again, we're not in the praying business. We're in the control risk business. So, again, if you are looking at Tesla, you better make sure you have a defined plan because, again, if your plan of action is risk first and value second, you're upside down in the trade. And again, if you've never traded Tesla and your first entry you're thinking about is 500, I promise you, you're doing it all wrong. There's ways to be in this business and there's even faster ways to get out of this business. And when you're stepping outside of your comfort zone, when you're prostituting your money for the sake of catching past performance, and that's what you're doing. Think about this. This is all past performance here. What you're doing is you're setting up for failure because you're chasing the ghosts of Christmas past and now you're not putting yourself in a foundation for organic order flow coming into the next couple of weeks. So, again, guys, not everything is for everybody. Not every single trade is for everybody. Always think safety first. I've been saying this for years, guys. Lead with your shield. Not with your chin. Very, very important. Lead with your shield, not with your chin. You don't need to be in everything. You don't have to be in every single move. You don't have to capture every single tick. Stay calm. Stay patient. Something else will come with much more defined risks, with much more tangible upside or downside. And at that point, at least you have the potential of having a reward to risk trade instead of a risk to reward. And that's so important to your development. So, market again, getting into the market this week. Again, just a monster market. What are you going to do? Again, war doesn't, they don't care about war anymore. The China trade has gone past. Iran is basically stepping down. Although I think they did, I think I read this. I think it was yesterday that I read. I think they admitted to shooting down the airline. I could be Ukrainian. I could be wrong. Please don't call me. Just do your reset. I'll actually check it out after I'm done. But again, we want to see how the market reacts to that. They said it was a human error. I want to see how the market reacts to that. But ultimately, man, this market has been incredibly strong. Very volatile, absolutely. But the bulls have been very, very, very omnipresent. And just everywhere, just literally everywhere. And again, until there is a buyer strike. Until there is a buyer strike and stocks just stop going up on, you know, on any type of news. That's when you start looking at the backside. And that's when you start looking for confirmation sentiment to change. But again, if you look at all the indexes for the week, S&P was up a percent. Dow Jones is up a percent. NASDAQ, again, just keeps on for the strength of Apple and, you know, strength of Apple and, you know, and Facebook and Alibaba and Tesla and NASDAQ, you know, up to another 2%. So very, very strong moves. Semiconductors we've been talking about through this week have been strong. The biotechs have been strong. So again, going into this week, again, you have to be cautiously optimistic. Again, I'm not a fool. I wasn't born last night. I know they could pull at any time. But at least you have to, you know, at least you have to keep on riding the wave until the sentiment change. Okay. It's very, very important. Okay. Don't try to guess when a reversal is going to come. Now again, is there some obvious weakness in the market? Absolutely. Okay. You got Roku. Okay. That looks like it's about to break down. Okay. It's very, very easy to see. It's just stopped rallying. You got Netflix. And again, you know, you got Netflix after, you know, pretty big run, right? Pretty big couple of day run. We caught this runner here. We caught this two day run here. Now it's just kind of getting weaker. So again, we have to kind of watch what happens in this bottom channel. I mean, nobody's saying it's gone lower. But again, you can see it. Amazon, again, if you watched Thursday's video after Friday, we were in the Amazon for four days, made a very modest profit in this thing. It just couldn't rally. It just absolutely couldn't rally. And again, it's starting to look like it might roll over. Again, these are all signs of, well, maybe there's a problem, right? Again, nobody's saying it will be a problem. Again, there's still smart money bets being, you know, put out there ahead of Amazon. There's earnings, 2020, 50, 2100. Am I going to bet against Amazon long-term? Absolutely not, right? But for the price action point, if the market goes up 500 points in two days and Amazon still can't go higher, I mean, when is it going to go up? Right? When is it going to go up? So, you know, there are definitely, there are definitely some signs of hesitation, but for the most part, the market continues to be strong. And again, like I said, and I've been saying this for years and years and years, you have to simplify things. The market is strong until it's not. I know it's a very, very babyish thing to say, but that's the truth. You don't have to overthink it. So going into this week, I'm definitely cautiously optimistic. I'm obviously watching Roku for some weakness. I'm going to be watching possible backtests for Tesla. But again, it has to confirm. Again, I would not be surprised if I'm trading into the upside and the sneaky channel. We'll talk about that in a second. But yeah, that's kind of where we are. Less is more value-oriented. Remember, you do not need to trade every single day. You don't need to trade every single week. It's all about value. So Friday, again, pretty good day. Pretty good day here. We'll talk about Tesla here in a second. Pretty good day here. I really kind of like how Beyond woke up this week. I don't know why on this page. I kind of like what I'm seeing on Beyond this week. Beyond is now back. Beyond is back. We started talking about Beyond. It started out so endlessly on the 77-20s area. And again, this is the whole point of just watching option orderfully. You don't need to be an option trader. We started seeing, in the beginning of the week, when the stock was at 74, 79 calls. And then after 79 calls, the 85 calls, the 90 calls, the 96 calls, the 100 calls, the 110 calls. The highest print I saw this week was 115 calls short-term. So again, this thing has woke up. Is this going to go to 100 this week? Probably, right? Probably looks so. It looks like the first move should get to 100. Again, the value on Beyond is buying this thing on any dip, on any dip until that test of 100. So Friday was pretty good stuff as well. Let me just switch to my other feed. Friday was a pretty solid day as well. There was definitely, definitely some value there. And let's talk about it, right? Let's talk about Friday's session. OK. So yeah, first and foremost, congratulations. Again, to talk about order flow. I know a good handle you guys were on the SR&E. Again, we saw calls being traded a few days back on SR&E. Again, level playing field, right? Somebody bought the January 5 calls that expire next week at $5. This is $1.50 out of the money with a week rental. Add news. Stock goes up $2.00 and changed. So I know some of you guys were on SR&E overnight and BYD. Congratulations. You're a lucky bastard. You did very, very well. Again, order flow, order flow. It matters. Tesla, again, when I was looking at this area back to the upside, this is going to be a big area. And never, obviously, it never got up to this $89.25. In my opinion, this will be the area. If the stock is going to go at least test $500, this $89.25 area on Tesla in the future, this will be a big number. And if you look at why, OK? And if you look at why, obviously it didn't get there on Friday. But if you look at why, OK, you see this channel here, right? The top of the channel here is $49.25. You see the high here in this channel? $489.25. You see this candle here? $489.25, right? So for this thing to start testing back, again, you don't need to guess if the stock is going to go back higher. Once this thing starts confirming $49.25, you will get a push at $500. Because, again, if you believe in the theory that stocks trade from supply to supply and demand to demand, once it takes out this whole supply, right? It just takes out this upper bologna band. You can see how much airspace you have. So, again, if you're looking to the upside, $489.25. If you're looking to the downside, now this is where it gets very, very interesting. If you can see here, it's the rise in five day. Everybody see that? Rise in five day here. If it starts taking down the lows here the last couple of days, right? It takes the five. Again, if you believe in the theory, the stocks trade from supply to supply and demand to demand, well, here is the next demand zone. So I'm watching this bottom channel here. I'm watching that $489.25 to the upside. No bias, no stress. I'm waiting for confirmation. I don't care which way it goes as long as it gets confirmed. So that's that on Tesla. $338 Netflix never gave a second entry. This thing was huge. SNX, all you guys who took this trade, we talked about $141, right? Here's the $141. And this thing just absolutely exploded with almost $149. Lyft, I still kind of like Uber we had on our list earlier this week. Broke out. Lyft actually looks good. Didn't put up a big move on Friday, continues to put in higher highs and higher lows over this 46 level. I think there's still a puncher shot against the 47 this week. So that looks pretty good. Peloton, nice move off the open. We talked, we had this thing as a short below 27.55. It builds below it can flush. Not a huge flush. I mean, not a huge flush. But again, again, it's a $27 stock and went from 27.55 all the way down to 26.80s. Again, is that a good move? So it's very, very subjective. Beyond is just the beast. I think it's going to see 100 this week. Again, 9410 pre-market highs needs to reclaim. 9410 BYND when nuts. Here's the 9410 pre-market highs, right? 9410 and da-da-da went all the way up to 98. Just a monster. I really like it this week. I'm hoping from a down open on Beyond this week to get it going. Peloton perfect SNX when nuts. Tesla again. I kept on trying to find sneakier entries back to the upside. Just never made it up there needs to reclaim. But here is the trade I caught. Here is the trade I caught. And this is where we don't put, we don't put these bounce plays on the Twitter feed. Okay. Just because I like to keep it. I like to keep it strictly for natural pivot. So obviously we play a lot of bounce and rejection plays in live webinar. So here is my, here's my trade from Friday. I tweeted this out at 9.39. I go, and this is my Twitter, my, my regular feed. I said, hey, 475 of the trap shorts, it can wake up. Now why was 475 a spot? And this is why I trade 60 minute channels. Okay. Everybody see, everybody see this, this bottom channel, this bottom channel here at, where is it? Here it is. Everybody see this bottom channel here? 475. It was 474, but at that time because the price adjusts with time, it was 475. So I got long at the 475 remount, right? I got along the 475 remount. And like I said on, you know, on the tweet, they got trapped. Okay. They absolutely got trapped. If you look at, if you look at what the stock did, if you look at what the stock did through that trap, just got absolutely destroyed. I mean, excuse me. It absolutely, it absolutely destroyed shorts. I mean, just to the point of no return, because again, the most important part is if you can't recognize where demand and supply meets, okay, you're going to run in. Okay. You're going to run into emotional buyers, meaning technical sellers and technical sellers, meaning emotional buyers. And if you look at what happened here from, from the trap, okay, the move was insane. Okay. The move was insane. And again, he was the, you know, he was the, he was the pivot. I wish that God, I could have said, I caught this whole move and I didn't, I caught her for a few bucks. I was happy with the move because again, I looked at the five minutes supply and I said, Holy crap, the supply there. So I took a couple of bucks on this bounce, which is nothing wrong. And I would take a couple of bucks on Netflix, on Tesla any day of the week. There was some supply. I didn't think it was going to go through. And not only did it go through that supply, it just put up a rocket move. I know a lot of you guys did a lot better than me on the tier move, right? On the tier move, but the whole point is again, and I firmly believe this, you sell when you want to, not when you have to. And it's very, very important part of trading. You don't want to be a greedy pig. Your process is everything. Your money management is everything. You don't regret, okay? You don't regret what you're looking at in the markets, how you're proceeding with the markets. The most important part is take a piece, right? Just take a piece. You don't have to be a greedy pig. It's great. Sometimes I do catch the measure move. Sometimes I don't. You have to be comfortable with that. You have to be okay with that. And the most important thing is remember always safety first. So going into this week, guys, again, I'm cautiously optimistic, okay? I really am cautiously optimistic. Beyond I am watching, I'm hoping for a dip at the open into rising 60-minute supports, basically the same play as Tesla. Tesla, I am just looking for signs, okay? Tesla, I'm just looking for signs. Which ways are going to break? Is it going to break above? Is it going to break above the sneaky channel here? Or is it going to break below the sneaky channel there? I personally think down to my head, I think there will be at least one more Tesla 500 before any type of aggressive move. But again, if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. It's not going to cost me any money. I'm waiting for price action to come. The only one that I am watching on the downside is Roku. And I think there's a problem there. Actually, there was a pivot there that we talked about on Friday through the downside from the 130 level that really came in. You can see here, there's three channels here to the downside. You have 127.50, 127.20, Friday's low is 128. If it starts building below this 50-day moving average, there's room all the way down to 123 before it comes out with earnings. So there is some value here to the downside. I want to see how Roku reacts to the futures to the upside, to the downside, just to get more confirmation, collect more data before a macro move can come. So guys, happy Sunday, everybody. Go enjoy your life. More football today. If you are trading with us tomorrow, morning strategy starts up at 9 o'clock Eastern time. Please be there early. You cannot roll in at 9.29 and say, what are we doing? We go through extensive conversation about what's going to happen, what should happen, what we're expecting to happen at morning strategy. And if you trade beta, I'm pretty confident to say you'd like what we're doing. Guys, have a great Sunday. God bless and with God's help, I'll see you all in the field tomorrow. Congratulations for putting in the time to take control of your trading. You're one step closer to owning your future and achieving the success you desire. Want daily trade ideas directly from Dan? Straight off his personal watch list? Unlock our free PS60 Vault where you'll get nightly updates on pivot opportunities we're watching for the next day's session. Click the link in the description to get started today.