 Okay, very good morning to you. It's Wednesday the 8th of September. I hope you're doing well Sorry, I couldn't get a video to you guys yesterday Just putting the finishing touches to the Amplify me project which goes live on the 15th of September so next Wednesday So really looking forward to sharing that with you guys next week But otherwise what am I going to talk about in this briefing? Well, let's start with the charts and get straight to it Before I begin if you're watching this on YouTube really appreciate it If you could like and subscribe to the channel if you're not already done But having a look at the markets this morning. We've seen a little bit of a sell-off here broad-based in equity index futures I've just been speaking to the guys at New Squawk the analyst desk and there's no there's not been one single headline trigger But a couple of things here from a technical perspective the S&P You can see a bit of an acceleration through the breakout beneath what was the support levels from The prior day session and also the overnight Asia pack range low at 45 13 and a quarter so just triggering a bit of sell-olders and Typical in that fast money type Breakout move you see exits at the first kind of clearest definable point and the pivot levels often provide that cue And so a little bit of a hiatus as we've moved down to the s1 in that move this morning through the European cash open Looking at the Nasdaq future same kind of case here Got a near-term level of support found from yesterday afternoon's low before the ensuing rally that came in towards the back end of the The US session post-European exit that also brings in that low that we're seeing back on the afternoon the third as well So that was to keep an eye on if we do remain a little bit heavy today in the Nasdaq looking at the broader range Obviously, there's quite a definable double bottom there You can see from the price activity from the second and also the third so any breakdown of this price That's that does have scope technically to trade a little heavy today. You've got the s2 as well around that Same supportive area around 15 5 60 51 type price activity Nothing really too much though to spook people. I mean this isn't certainly Anything to get too panicked about I don't think just a bit of softness We're still fairly elevated in the bigger scheme of things. I would say the movement itself in equity So just promoting what would be more classical risk-off trade to a moderate degree this morning So the 10 year equally so on the mirror reverse of what we've had equities just breaking out of some of the range That had been in play over the last 12 hours or so in the 10 years just moving a little higher up 5 ticks this morning Consequently with that risk-off tone You're seeing gold also come up to the top end of its range here any break out through that overnight APAC high at around the 1802 mark just knocking on that door at the moment would be surprised to see a run-up more aggressive toward the pivot level Just before there at 1806 and a half in the futures would be that low we printed back on the the second which would be a Target on the upside for any run Higher that we might see in the yellow metal crude prices pretty flat overall I think it's too interesting there for the time being don't forget the Oil infantry daters are all bumped a day later than normal. So the API is weren't last night They'll be tonight at 9 30 London time always the case with the late-day holidays Of course and with oil just kind of sitting there at the moment finding some near-term resistance from the 70 19 Area in the futures. All right Well one of the things I wanted to talk about and get straight into to start with was Bitcoin and obviously the crypto space came under some fairly aggressive selling pressure yesterday and as you would have seen Bitcoin nurses losses in the wake of El Salvador's glitched rollout now a couple things here I just wanted to talk about and I guess most prudent to just bring up the Bitcoin charts and just to stress I'm looking at Bitcoin futures here rather than the actual Spot price if you want to call it that so here Just a bit of context over the recent weeks worth of price activity You could see here in the run-up to the adoption of this being legal tender in El Salvador Even though we'd known this for a while over the last few days There'd been lots of talk about you know could ton of mark this memorable day about its more mainstream adoption in El Salvador There's going to be I think 30 million dollars worth of buying going into the into the actual coin But that had seen a degree of kind of optimism going in and then yesterday's kind of wipeout happened with these glitches And we reversed a large part of that So when you actually look at the move from yesterday, I mean obviously it was very aggressive from the high to low We're talking about a move of near 18% in the futures Although we're seeing a little bit of added pressure this morning In fact, we've only just taken back those gains that were seen built into the price in a somewhat by the rumor cell the fact type fashion I feel still don't buy into too much that El Salvador is going to kind of completely switch to using crypto US dollars will still remain the dominant currency of choice and obviously The real test of time will come in the weeks and months ahead about how consumers really adopt and use that in a more Transactional way and whether or not then the actual crypto in itself can stand up to that type of more practical usage So I don't think it's too much of a game changer to be honest And certainly if you're looking on a daily chart, I mean yesterday's support on the daily bars was Nice and clear really for a target on that sell-off And you can see here going all the way back to that low that was seen in Feb of 21 More recently you've got that range support low that we had in Early to mid-August and the price pretty much respected that to the dollar and then saw a bit of a bounce to where we are at the moment So for me, that's a key level as I've said We bounced quite aggressively off the initial low on the dump yesterday in Bitcoin However, we are down around 1300 bucks this morning in the futures Training at 45 395. I'd be looking at 43 70 80 as a big level of support If broken wouldn't be surprised to see a run back down to 41 300 Which would be these highs you can see here and here and a break of that Well, then it starts to see more more heavy selling down probably towards this kind of area of 37 36,000 So that area there though Near-term intraday is really what's quite key interested to see on daily clothes Whether we close above or below that level will be quite indicative for for near-term price actions We go through the rest of the week All right moving on elsewhere a few other things that I did want to talk about First off I did talk about the initial sell-off we've seen this morning as I said I don't think it's anything too sinister for the equity move I don't necessarily see persistent downside emerging throughout the rest of today Necessarily not unless anything unexpected comes out. The close on Wall Street was a little bit mixed So our performance in the NASDAQ up marginally point one five percent Whereas the S&P was down a third the Dow down three quarters one percent Asian stocks did snap their eight-day winning streak So perhaps to a certain extent that explains why you've seen a bit of moderation in the equity space going into this morning The Japanese government said they're going to extend their COVID emergency measures to end this month But will gradually ease covered restrictions beginning in October according to local press So just a little bit of the the wind coming out of the sale of that market given the Suga news and the Recomposition of some of the indexes and the Nikkei 225 that we had with the inclusion Nintendo and other firms and so on So I don't find that that pullback that surprising Meanwhile in China just sticking with the region one thing to be aware of was some comments that we had from the vice governor of the People's Bank of China who said that the country will maintain prudent monetary policy and not resort to flood like Stimulus, however, he did say in a news conference that there is space for monetary policy is still relatively big So again, just kind of more Communication to the market and the Chinese market tech space has seen quite a nice rebound Actually from that aggressive sell-off from the crackdowns We are seeing over recent weeks And they just continue to support that kind of idea to promote stability in the market at the moment The other headlines just to cover off. I don't think really this has too much near-term implication for sterling However, perhaps it has more medium long-term repercussions for the conservative government And this comes as the UK is set to take the lead among developed nations in raising new taxes that will help trim the pandemic budget deficits now You know if you rewind the briefings that I've done over the months and certainly over the year and a half or so the pandemic when they were The UK was rolling over things like the furlough scheme and things like that as much as I do think that these were necessary things Of course For not just the economy, but also for society at large The one thing I did say at the time is there's no such thing as a free lunch And we're seeing that now come to fruition and this isn't going to be unique The UK is just one of the first out of the gate in the developed world to do this Whilst in mainland Europe as they have done from the beginning have kind of lagged within the phases Of of what we've seen whether that's the actual COVID waves the actual rollout of vaccinations the actual Reopening of the economies the actual now more fiscal discipline is just the latest that we're seeing the UK be ahead of So a couple things to be aware of here. It's in total a 12 billion pound charge on workers and companies It's going to be brought before Parliament today So you're probably going to get a lot of media headlines Criticizing I'm sure Boris Johnson and the reason of that is that the national insurance a payroll tax will rise by one and a quarter percent From next year and that breaks one of the Conservative Party's manifesto pledges not to increase any of the main rates of tax however such as Boris proving relatively Teflon in the in the political space that being the pressure if anything not from opposition but more internally with perhaps friction with the emerging kind of Reputation of the Chancellor Rishi Sunak is that I don't actually think in the bigger picture Breaking a manifesto in a once-in-a-century type pandemic. I think gives enough flexibility to at least Navigate what otherwise would be something which be a lot more politically harming at this point in time It's kind of a unique situation. I think it gives the Johnson And the Conservatives enough wiggle room to be honest, so overall my market impact I don't think this is necessarily a net buy or sell sterling situation. I just think it has potentially Political ramifications more longer term, but don't get me wrong. We're a long way off Any types of Rishi challenge to the to the Bojo leadership albeit that's what a lot of people are thinking at the moment these days in the future One other thing I wanted to mention was an FT exclusive overnight from this chap. You probably recognize him now He's very outspoken non-voting member And tends to be of a more hawkish disposition. This of course is James Bullard of the St. Louis Fed And he said the Fed should press ahead with the plan to dial down is massive pandemic stimulus program Despite the abrupt slowdown in US jobs gross last month He said quote the bigger picture is that taper will get going this year and will end sometime by the first half of next year so the reason why this was a little bit interesting was because he's basically Going against the grain of how markets have kind of repositioned and Themselves and the thinking over tapering with the hawkish more accelerated taper argument done Given the fact of how poor the return of jobs has been Bullard sticking to his guns at this point in time There was a little bit of moderate strength overnight in the green back But it's faded as we've gone into the European open So there hasn't really been too much long-lasting impact on the back of that. The other thing as an update is US stimulus This is you can see this little guy hiding between the doors here The reason with that is you know, Biden's got his eyes on him And this is of course is the US senator Manchin And who said would only support a maximum of one and a half trillion dollars in the spending plan Now slight problem for Biden of course because his spending plan is three and a half trillion dollars And the reason why this is of course particularly important is because as a senator the Senate is an even split And one dissenter against then Biden's plan is a problem for passage within Congress The House and Senate committee to give you context of timeline have until the 15th of September the next Wednesday To write specific legislation on how to spend that three and a half proposed trillion Manchin though, I must say was careful in his Wall Street Journal piece Not to close the door on future negotiations There's a good article here That I'll be happy to share if you're if you're interested. I have retweeted it from the amplify me So you can see the logo here. Just look for amplify me on Twitter and it goes into some of the kind of wish list if you like on the requests that Manchin is making So for me such as all things politics Manchin is just angling for what he wants. Will he concede in the end? Probably, yes, will Biden have to step off that three and a half trillion size Possibly, but it might just come with some Recomposition of that funding to appease Manchin to get him over the line to agree to it This is all politics playing out. We've seen this with Brexit. We see it with Other infrastructure bills have gone through the US Manchin knows he's important And what would you do in that situation if he wanted certain types of other funding positioned elsewhere? Well, you cause some problems You've still got until Wednesday for this deal to run before really you need to write more specific legislation So I'm just gonna force the issue to get what I want. And so in the end dealmaking typically happens The other thing then the final thing I wanted to mention was storm watch. We're still keeping an eye We're obviously in the midst of hurricane season and after Ida caused a lot of Problems overall and complications. We're now monitoring a disturbance Which has a 50% chance of cyclone Formation in the next 48 hours and the reason why I'm keeping an eye on that on the National Hurricane Center is that it's developing over central and eastern Gulf of Mexico And so obviously this is the very strategically important point for on offshore Platforms oil and gas refineries and so on and so forth so worth just keeping half an eye on that Terms of the day ahead What's on the agenda? It's really quiet in terms of the docket for the UK European morning I think there is a bund auction fixed income trading in in Germany However, the focus will be in the US afternoon. No major 130s But we're gonna have the jolts job openings for the US and obviously the market quite sensitive to the job Situations to probably half an eye on that. You've got the Bank of Canada interest rate decision Not expecting any real change here from the BOC It's pre-election statement only meeting that election in Canada happening, of course on the 20th of September And then the oil and vitri numbers as I said earlier They're gonna be later on tonight So everything gets bumped today because of Labor Day holiday and you do have the Feds beige book coming out tonight Not typically a market mover, but perhaps interested to see on a more breakdown of the 12th district level across the nation of the general feel of economic conditions, particularly given the very Splintered situation with how very the COVID case rate has been and thus economic activity Across different pockets of the United States Speaker wise Bank of England governor Bailey Speaks with some of the more senior NPC members ahead of or at the Treasury Select Committee hearing today This is when they discuss things like the July financial stability report the August monetary policy report These are things the market is already had access to and has already reacted to so the TSC is essentially the Bank of England reporting to their Treasury officials of what it is that's going on at this point in time Very rarely does it constitute anything market moving or anything new that is said Otherwise probably the one of the other major things looking out for today's Feds Williams Feds Williams very much on that Hawk dove Scale aligned with Jerome Powell given the context of that disappointing US employment report We saw at the end of last week and quite keen to see what Williams has to say because he is speaking specifically on as you can see here The economic outlook and monetary policy, so that's definitely one I'd have penciled in on your calendar to keep an eye on if you're trading Really across different asset classes, particularly dollar related in the FX market Kaplan speaks after market and you do have 38 billion dollars in a tenure-note auction as well coming out in the US To be aware of that is it. I'm gonna leave it at that let you guys get on with a day any questions at all Feel free to drop me a comment. Otherwise. See you same time tomorrow. Thank you