 Okay, very good morning Anthony Chung here the head of market analysis at Amplify trading Hope you had a great weekend I just a reminder you can see my my Twitter account up here and my pinned tweet So my last tweet being the macro menu. So for those who are not aware of that It's a piece I put out every Sunday evening, which is basically my fundamental look ahead for the week it does include the Technical analysis video that Sam does so predominantly my role here is to get you up to speed and talk about my views and thoughts about the Latest news in play, but Sam does a great video where he looks at the technical setups across the different products and asset classes And then on the YouTube channel as well check out the latest video from Eddie where he talks about the latest retail phenomenon That is Robin Hood and ask some interesting questions about is it really retail traders that are causing some of this equity rise? Or is there something more Kind of involved on the hedge fund side that's quite interesting to find out as well So check out the YouTube channel remember to like and subscribe and we really appreciate all the engagement as well from last week So long may that continue? So let's have a look at the charts this morning And what exactly is going on and we've got a bit of a I would say from a sentiment perspective markets a run a bit of a Knife edge at the moment and not to dramatize that but what I mean more so is that it feels like one Kind of new headline here or there could tip the balance slightly and much of the weekend news flow as I will walk you through It's very much dominated by COVID-19 in particular So we had a gap down of around about a percent or so in the S&P 500 futures on the reopening of Globex on Sunday night you can see that that follows the downtick that we saw really when Europe left the market on Friday Equancy index futures in the US started to come under some pressure We have Apple of course come out and said that they would again close almost a dozen Stores in the US because of the recent rising coronavirus infections in the south and in the west of the country and Although Apple as a company can survive I would say fairly comfortably by operating and Advertising and browning its products then to consumers online. It's a pretty telling sign I think about maybe this degree of over optimism about the process of reopening in the US About how quickly that is going to be about how much the market has factored in this aggressive bounce And to that degree then you had you know quite considerable selling pressure going into the close and we actually managed to Finish below what had been quite a key technical point around 30 63 and a half, which was last Tuesday and Thursday's low points so yeah, definitely for the kind of more traditional brick-and-mortar retailers still seemingly a Quite arduous path back to a degree of normality for sure going forward So we gap down overnight, but as you can see Sentiment did recover in the Asia Pacific and was however it has soured once again slightly as Europe's come back into the market So we're trying right back to that key key level once again So yeah pretty decent move overnight in Asia But one of the things we've gone from quite a negative open to fairly positive recovery to now Europe coming in and now It's interested to see not only Europe But really when the US coming how they want to react to this latest kind of COVID updates. So elsewhere gold You know despite some of the Asian move actually gold was moving higher overnight So continues to remain a pretty decent asset to be positioned in for the the general risks on the table at the moment and From a you know looking on the monthly candlestick. There certainly is an interesting area still in close proximity at the moment Which is up around this 17 Kind of 1775 90 marks obviously the cyclical or 1800 handles just above Which starts to encapsulate some of the highs that we were seeing during parts of the European sovereign crisis and Yeah, we've rejected twice off that level and so this this week It could be particularly interested to see how we close here because you know if we can get above this This kind of key cluster of resistance here at around 1800 Then certainly, you know, I wouldn't discount then a pretty rapid move up to 1900 being the previous Record high territory that we were we were trading back in 2011 would not be off the cards for sure Having a look elsewhere in the currency markets the dollar index is Kind of close to flat down marginally one-tenth In the major pairs kind of reflective of some of the other assets general movement So as equities are recovering overnight the dollar was weakening in that kind of what we have been seeing of late Which is kind of a tie to risk sentiment being something positive However, as Europe's come in just soured slightly and both you're a dollar top left and and beside a cable here I've just come off down below their pivot for the moment in Germany The DAX Similar type price movement the DAX features coming down about 180 So well off its lowest levels But has been fading slightly the gains that were seen overnight running into some resistance around as you can see here The pivot level but also that was a close proximity to that double top that we had from Friday Afternoon and evening and around that same similar sort of price point in terms of the DAX movers Not too much of a surprise. I guess to see the lights of wire card down another 40 percent Their explanation of that 1.9 billion hole in their balance sheet Still kind of coming to light and the chief executive mark is brawn resigning on Friday as well So even though they're a relatively small component now in the DAX around 1.3 percent or so That's probably the biggest individual stock mover within that index. Deutsche Telecom also a little heavier Indications down about 3.3 percent in the oil market finally Kind of tracking I guess a little bit the equity move We've got support near term in the form of the pivot level for the time being Pretty see-saw price movement obviously that we had to see off the end of last week And so, you know where we go from here I wouldn't really want to say to be honest Not so much again of an OPEC compliance type view But more based on the concert sensitivity and fragility almost in markets to any further developments on COVID I'd say and the implied nature that I'd have and impacting the demand For these energy products, I think will probably be the telltale sign of how oil will perform for the week ahead Getting me up speed then on coronavirus. What exactly is going on and got to start with the US As you can see here, this is looking at a US map of Nationwide so total cases now 2.2 million plus deaths coming into around 120,000 and notably then the shape of that seven-day average continues to move higher and California's new cases rose by a record as of yesterday just over four and a half thousand the Florida infections were up 3.7% from a day earlier compares to around a seven-day average of three point three point five percent So if you start looking on here Which is the the kind of overall hotspot map of the United States of America This is looking over the period of change of the last two weeks The more red then the more the severity of new cases that has emerged and Nationwide cases have risen 15% over the last basically two weeks cases rising in 18 states across the South West and Midwest Seven states have hit single-day case records as of yesterday Sunday and five others hit a record earlier in last week so Yeah continues to see particular, you know in this Texas area and Florida But one area as well that you've probably read about over the weekend was Oklahoma Why because it was the first time you know in this political campaigning period that Trump's kind of got back on the the roadshow and he gave a rally on Saturday and I guess unsurprisingly, but quite unbelievably Trump called the COVID-19 disease the kung fu virus He also urged staff to slow testing down However, his trade advisor later came out and said he was only joking So so what he means by slowing testing down is you know, if you think about it the more testing that's done Well, then the more cases you're likely to find so therefore what he's tried to do is he's been You know in these cases where case increases have been quite You know Significant in a number of these areas particularly in California. It has come in step as well with testing also becoming more frequent which he's trying to play off as explaining that so Yeah, more kind of distraction from Trump, but I guess you wouldn't really expect Much else at the moment, you know, what what does Trump saying the kung fu virus mean for the trade talks? I think absolutely zero This is all just kind of the the political rhetoric that he's deploying at the moment in order to kind of frame the situation in a certain way to as we know past accountability for any excuse me Of any way in which the virus might play out in the future. So, you know with the virus in in China What's going on there? Well, it's looking a little bit more self-contained at the moment But China has blocked some US poultry imports over cluster outbreak that was seen as some Tyson food plants So perhaps worth keeping an eye in regard to the response that Trump comes out with that But you know when you're looking at these types of areas and you're trying to understand the kind of The method of the US president. I mean this is looking at The area of Oklahoma in particularly Tulsa, which is where the rally was held And that's the hardest hit area of the virus every one in 274 people has actually had had the The disease or infection and if you start looking at the rapid increase of new cases You can see while Donald Trump needs to really ramp up the type of rhetoric and you know similar can be can be seen and if you were trying to judge the timing of the type of wording that he's going to be using you've already got to look as far as where is he going to be and Geographically nationwide as to what audience he is addressing to what language he's likely to use but but really he needs to Get his base Galvanized so to speak and so you can expect more of this type of rhetoric going forward The other country that a lot of people were talking about at the weekend was Germany Not sure if you've seen this, but well, let me just bring up the main article that people were looking at at the weekend So basically Germany's R rates and the R rate is that key rate of which then the the basically the coronavirus starts to then start Compound growth where it gets Exponential in terms of the acceleration of the phase and this is exactly what people were worried about with the reopening of Economies was that you go too fast. Well, then we get over this this one that figure and then for every X amount of people it affects so many more going forward And so this was the main figure that we were looking at on Sunday quite quite Surprisingly and this is what did cause a little bit of that negativity at the original reopening of trade is that Corona virus infection rates shot up to its highest level for weeks after more than 1,300 abattoir employees tested positive for the virus The R rate now 2.88 on Sunday from 1.06 on Friday So this is one of the the things like much like with Apple I mean although this was based from an abattoir like with Apple It's that a couple of these isolated outbreaks can mean then a reverberate and through the necessity of taking Protection and precautionary stances from the government. You can quickly unwind slow down that reopening of the economy Which of course now the markets are pricing in a fairly fairly strong Bounce as we've seen in recent economic data So I think markets are a little bit susceptible to this and that's the way how I'd be reading it at the moment You know things like retail sale reports that we've seen in the UK to the US non-farm payrolls The PMI kind of numbers as well this week. I like to see a fairly decent recovery You know, that's fine But if you think about the PMI data that's a diffusion index So basically it's just a summary of people are they feeling more confident or less and if it's above 50s and fine Expansionary below contractually and although these numbers will most likely bounce at the end of the day They are not reality. They're just people's forward-looking expectations So they are subject to change and if we start to see numbers like this what we've had in Germany Well, then a restriction in movement again Rethinking about the reopening Plan which had been going fairly well You would say all things remain equal in some of these countries Well, then people are going to have to reprice in the type of recovery that we're going to see after this very optimistic Kind of economic data surprises to the upside that we've had of late So that was the German situation Australia as well overnight the second most popular state Victoria Titan controls following a spike in cases. So there definitely are a few pockets Globally that are causing a little bit of concern That's not to kind of run away with the negatives at the moment I think this is maybe a day out of date or so because it still has Germany fairly flatlining But obviously as I've just discussed it has bumped up So that's seven average is likely to be altered now going forward. But you know countries like the UK Italy Austria Denmark they have Not really seen too much in the way of any new spikes apart from this German one that we've just mentioned And so this has come with the year-on-year change in retail entertainment footfall That has been gradually moving higher. So that's quite, you know, I don't want to talk it down too much This is quite a positive for these specific areas, which means that as they've Gradually gone back to this process of reopening. It has not yet then led to a Second significant outbreak, but that of course comes into question this morning given the situation that we've just discussed with With Germany in that sense So the other thing as well that I thought was quite interesting Was something I was talking about in my my macro menu Was if I just scroll up, I was talking about the PMI data I just mentioned it briefly. It's one of the main data highlights for this week It's coming on Tuesday and these are the flash readings. So people will put some weight to them But one thing I've been looking at and this was highlighted by analysts at ING Aside from my point about the fact that these these kind of Soft economic data points are forward-looking so subject to change the other thing that I think it's quite interesting to track At the moment is the COVID-19 community Mobility reports that Google are putting out and basically if you were to search for your own country So if I put United Kingdom in here and I download the latest report Now one of the things that it does here is it starts to look at tracking data for mobility trends And it does say by breaking down individual kind of sectors that then will be related to pockets of the economy So here you can see retail and creation obviously getting an almighty hits given the fact that restaurants cafes You know museums theme parks all these things are shut at the moment Which is why the economic Implication has been so severe But supermarkets and pharmacies you can see obviously parks up sharply as people try to get some fresh air from the lockdown and do Exercise and so on but a number of these numbers are deeply negative So although things like the PMI data might see quite a sharp almost v-shaped recovery The idea here is that the underlying economy is not quite keeping pace to that So yes, people are becoming more confident and you might well see that in some of the PMI numbers here Where you get this aggressive bounce at the end of the day the underlying economy as far as mobility is concerned We'd probably not hold up to suggest then that the economy can continue that type of positive Bounce it's almost like we've come from such depressed levels that if you were in ultra depression And you are someone asked you well, how do you feel now about the future? Well? Yeah, sure I feel a little bit better now a little bit more confident and so rightly so the index will bounce does that mean? We're going to have the you know a Accelerated economic recovery reality. I I would say not not unless these types of numbers from these nobility Trackers start to fall into line and fall closer to what some degree of normality and if they don't and if things like retail creation or recreation Which if situations like Germany start to unfold or that all the more longer is going to take and and that's where markets might Become susceptible to them having to re-price out some of the optimism that has been priced in I would say to typically typically in the likes of equities over the last couple of weeks That's kind of the main bulk of really what I wanted to discuss So it's all very much a covert 19 led discussion Looking over then on the calendar for the rest of this week. There are a couple of interesting things To look out for on Tuesday is the flash PMIs as I mentioned On Wednesday, you've got the RBNZ rate decision. You've got German iPhone coming out So that would be the the German underlying companies on the grounds perspective about how they feel about common current conditions and forward-looking expectations a couple of Fed speakers coming out over the over the course of the week Kashkari speaking today and Kashkari made a pretty interesting comment actually at the end of last week And I've got it written here on my my macro menu Kashkari who is a voting member the most dovish though. I must also reiterate So it's not that surprising to hear this type of rhetoric But he said unfortunately my base case scenarios that will see a second wave of the virus across the US probably this fall More interestingly was Rosengren who does tend to sit on the more hawkish side of the spectrum But is a non-voting member He said the lack of containment could ultimately lead to a need for more prolonged shutdowns Which would result in reduced consumption and investment and higher unemployment So definitely the Fed still remaining in quite dovish mindset at the moment And as we go through the week and we start tracking these beaches You'd expect the others to kind of follow suit at this point in time Other things then going through into Thursday US dribble goods the GDP numbers are going to come out generally in the US But our final numbers as is the PCE price numbers the initial jobless claims are still likely to track around a million mark So still Elevated but again kind of if after the spike we've had this kind of graduated Decline from where we were as we know and then on Friday you get a Japanese Cpr US PCE price index personal income spending in the final University of Michigan So yeah, not not a great deal out on the docket to be honest with you the PMIs will probably be the headline fixed reading We're also still keeping an eye out for any updates on the overall situation that's happening in The UK in regard to really two things so yeah in my my report I did last night. There's kind of two things to look out for as far as the UK is concerned this week And that's an update on Britain's coronavirus lockdown Process the Health Minister Matt Hancock spoke yesterday And he said potentially relaxing the two meter rule and social distancing allowing many businesses to reopen in early July but just given what's happened at the weekend in Germany or think there'll be some quite heated discussion about the best Foot forward for that one person who's wanted to really push on has been the Chancellor Rishi Sunak because he knows With government spending rising at a phenomenal rate at the moment He needs to get the economy firing again and reports in the Sunday times The links here if you if you want to have a look he's planning an emergency VAT cuts In his latest effort to tackle the iconic fallout from the coronavirus outbreak now If you remember if you were in markets during the financial crisis in 2008 the then labor led Chancellor Alistair Darling did cut the AT to 15% from 17 and a half percent for a period of three months in initial knee jerk kind of reaction to the The global financial crisis so it has been done before but one of the stats I was reading over the weekend was the HMRC estimate that for every percentage point the VAT goes down They lose the Treasury about seven billion pounds a year So yes, you're trying to instill confidence and hopefully that gets the economy and that's that Heavily outweighs and the loss of kind of income from tax receipts, but certainly it does come With with a cost in that respect They're also said to be working on plans for deferred tax rises and cuts to public spending in the autumn budget as well So they're worth keeping that in mind But the other big thing here is of course any updates in the UK and EU negotiations I mean, there's nothing really formal Expected yet the the more formalized talks actually start this time next week on the 29th right before that deadline for whether or not the UK Requests an extension on the transition that's looking less likely So as that timeline runs down, although we're not expecting anything great to happen right now I guess the continuation of the the rhetoric of kind of some compromises, but no concrete conclusiveness to the to the talks is likely to be a bit of a drag and potential headwind for the pound and Yeah, one of the things I'm thinking with Sterling at the moment, you know with The virus at the moment still to be tracked, of course with the ongoing EU and UK Brexit negotiations that in contrast to any Reflection of renewed risk Emerging from global thinking about the coronavirus which typically strengthens the dollar I think could keep cable a little bit susceptible to some downside If that were to materialize in that way, but for me, it's not just a UK story I would want to see dollar strength coming in on a move back into That kind of flight to quality into the greenback to see that materialize rather than just negative sterling fundamentals in isolation All right, that is it Any questions, please feel free to to just send me a message or just leave a comment on the video Absolutely happy to help as and when I can and remember to subscribe to the channel if you're watching this on YouTube But have a fantastic week ahead all the best Stay safe and have a good Consistent and profitable week in markets. All right. Take care