 Hello, everyone. Welcome to Options with Doug. Streaming live daily on Bookmap Discord and the Bookmap YouTube channel at 1.30 p.m. Eastern Time. Before I get started, I need to go through the disclosures. General disclosure, all Bookmap limited materials, information, and presentations are for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations. Risk disclosure, trading futures, equities, and options involve substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The focus of my presentation and the focus of the Options-Dash-Doug chat channel in Discord is options, order flow, the impact of options markets on stocks and futures, and the influence of market maker hedging flow on price action. I have a two-step process for trading in the first is planning, and I use positional analysis. I look at how traders and market makers are positioned at the options market and how those positions change from day to day to develop a thesis regarding the expected trading range and volatility for the day as well as a directional bias. And the second step in my process is execution. And I look at real-time order flow in Bookmap and real-time market maker hedging flow with SpotGammaHero to confirm my thesis and for setups for entries and exits. And I will be talking about setups today in underlying assets. And those setups can be taken with futures, shares of stock, or options. Questions and comments are welcome, and I will be watching the Options-Dash-Doug chat channel in Discord as well as the chat and YouTube for your questions and comments. My agenda for today, what I want to talk about, first of all, news items, economic data, events, and earnings go over. Earnings for yesterday afternoon, economic data for this morning, and then the upcoming economic data for tomorrow. Then I'll go through my positional analysis, then I'll review some setups from this morning, and then we'll look at the live market. So when I get to the live market, if anyone has any stocks they want me to take a look at, please let me know. All right, let's start with news. So first of all today, big news was the earnings after the FOMC. Of course, that was a huge event yesterday. A lot of market movement up and down, and I posted a nice short setup in Discord that happened just after my session ended, and as the press conference began yesterday at 2.30. Again, I posted that in Discord. Options traders were fading that move. Let's see if I can find that, and I'll pop that up on the screen just a moment. So here it is from yesterday, and I posted this in Discord. So this happened. Remember, my session ended at 2.30. That's when the press conference began. And note that this 454, Spy 454, zero gamma level, acted as support just a few minutes before price reversed higher as Jerome Powell began speaking. And note that larger traders were fading the move with iceberg orders shown by the following light blue line here. And hello, Karma FX. Glad you're here. Welcome. And price reversed right at the Spy 457 level. And let's just see what options traders were doing at that time. So actually, let me just go finish up with the order flow. So large traders selling with iceberg orders. You can see that here. I know that's a little bit difficult to see, but you can see it more clearly in the following blue line there. Aggressive buyers, buy stop orders shut down. Wrong one. So this is from yesterday afternoon, showing that options traders were fading that move higher, setting up the short around 240, 245. All right, so that's yesterday. Nice short setup. I posted that in Discord in the option stash dug chat channel. All right, so the next big event. Let's go take a look at book map was meta reporting earnings after the close yesterday. And this is the view from yesterday. So this is the RTH session yesterday. And then the sharp move higher right after the close when meta reported earnings and then meta gapped up all the way to 330 and is trading. It looks like it has given up around half of the move from yesterday back down to 315. And we'll talk more about that in a few minutes when I get the setups review, get through review setups. All right, so news then that was FOMC yesterday meta earnings. And then this morning, a couple of economic data reports came out GDP and durable goods both better than expected and jobless claims lower than expected. And there was an initial positive reaction after a pretty strong move up really from the close yesterday. So this is going back all the way to the all the way back to the open yesterday. And it looks like the S&P 500 futures have given back almost all of that today. All right, so that's news. And then finally, the news item news items for tomorrow economic data PCE at 830 a.m. Eastern Time. That could definitely be a market mover drone pal indicated yesterday that he will be data driven and making rate decisions from meeting to meeting based on the data. And then consumer sentiment at 10 a.m. All right, let's start with the S&P 500. So that was the news items big market movers. And so now let's take a look at the positional analysis. Again, this is the S&P 500 futures. And before I take a closer look at this chart, I want to take a look at a larger time frame. And I'm going to go take a look at an SPX chart. This is a 30 day one hour chart. Let me point out some levels on this chart. First of all, the dash purple lines are the lower and upper weekly expected move. And note that SPX gapped up above that upper weekly expected move and the upper daily expected move. Also the call wall and now is trading pretty substantially lower. So the dash purple lines are the upper and lower and upper weekly expected move. The dash blue lines are the lower and upper daily expected move. Both of those just come directly from the options market. Now let me point out the spot gamma levels on this chart shown with the dark red horizontal lines. These are proprietary levels to spot gamma. First of all, there's the put wall at 4300. That's the strike with the largest net negative gamma that can be expected to act as support. And that level has been moving around quite a bit recently from 4300 on Monday. And remember last Friday was options expiration. So sometimes it takes a few days for positions to build and fill in for the next expiration. So 4300 on Monday down to 4000 on Tuesday up to 4500 yesterday and now back down to 4300. So quite a bit of movement in the put wall. The thing is though it's not really that relevant because it's so far out of play and the movement in the call wall and the location of the call wall is much more important in this current environment. So that's the 4300 put wall. And the next level up is the 4545 volatility trigger that is right here. That is spot gamma's proprietary gamma flip level. Below that level, market makers position on the gamma curve is negative. In a negative gamma environment, market makers have to trade with price to hedge their delta exposure. And that tends to enhance or increase volatility. And then on the other hand above that level like SBX is trading now, market makers position on the gamma curve is positive. In a positive gamma environment, market makers have to trade against price to hedge their delta exposure. And that tends to subdue volatility. And then finally here's the 4600 level. That is a key level that is the absolute gamma strike the start with the largest absolute gamma as well as the call wall. And that's the strike with the largest net positive gamma. And that can be expected to act as resistance. And so far today, it is doing its job acting as resistance. So those are the levels, the key levels as well as the daily and weekly expected move. Let's take a look at a little bit shorter timeframe, just looking at the SPX levels. Alright, so this is SPX, it keeps let me make sure to get the whole day here show all the levels in place. So SPX gapped up above the upper daily expected move, upper weekly expected move, as well as the call wall at 4600 and is now trading well below. And note this combo level, combo L one level at 45 99 did act as resistance this afternoon. And just as a point of reference here, does anyone know if there was news just right after one PM Eastern time? I looked and all I saw something about the Bank of Japan. So if any anybody knows anything else about any other news hitting the tape around that time, please let me know in chat. Otherwise, you know, that's a sharp move lower that happened just right after one PM. And it was SPX was right at that 45 99 resistance level. Alright, so now SPX is trading below the upper daily and weekly expected moves as well as the call wall. All right, let's take a look at book map and book map. I have my cloud notes here. And I'm showing the SPX levels. And right now the right now there's about a 26 point difference between ES and SPX. So this 4600 call wall is actually at ES 4626 and that combo level that acted as resistance at 4625. I also have spy levels on this chart spy 459 458 457. And then here's the 456 volatility trigger. So now that level has been tested. Alright, so Florence garage says TNX was flying a dollar way up. Right, so TNX is the ticker symbol for the 10 year note, the yield. Right, so that might have been it. Again, I just saw news about the Bank of Japan. Alright, so there's a levels in play for today. Before this event, whatever it was, the S&P 500 was trading in a general range between spy 457 and 459. Alright, so that's the S&P 500 now testing the ES 4600 level as well as the spy 456 volatility trigger. Alright, let's take a look at NASDAQ now. Alright, so just shifts and levels just let me mention for the S&P 500 again, the volatility trigger moved up five points from 4540 yesterday to 4545 put wall actually moved down again from 4500 to 4300. And for SPX, there were no changes to the call wall and absolute gamma strike both at force remain at 454, 4600. For the spy, the volatility trigger did move up slightly from 455 to 456. That's the level that S&P 500 is trading around right now. And then the absolute gamma strike moved higher from 450 to 455. And the call wall remains at 460. Alright, so that is the S&P 500. Let's take a look at NASDAQ and the shifts and levels. Alright, so for the NASDAQ, the round numbers have really been in play for today, both for NQ and QQQ. So let's take a look at a QQQ chart first, just showing the levels that are in play for today. Note here is the 385 call wall in that level did move down from 400 yesterday. So a pretty significant shift lower in the call wall for QQQ. I'm just going to scroll over a little bit here. So we know 385 is the call wall. And then the other levels on this chart are just round number levels. Here, this was the initial short set ups. I'll talk about that in a few minutes. And then the 383 level, acting as resistance multiple times, price trade tried to break above and then that whatever event news event came out, and price broke below the 383 level. So the next level below is 380. And that is the absolute gamma strike. And that strike also shifted pretty significantly lower from 400 yesterday to 380 today. And then the volatility trigger for QQQ is down below at 379. So QQQ is still trading just above its volatility trigger, which did shift higher from 375 yesterday to 379. And then also the put wall shifted higher for QQQ from 355 to 375. But the shifts lower and the call wall and the absolute gamma strike were the most significant. Again, shifting both shifting down from 400 to 385 for the call wall and 380 for the absolute gamma strike. Alright, let's take a look at book map now. So I just drew, you know, drew some lines here and book map showing short entry points. And I'll talk more about why I was leaning short. So other, you know, first of all, again, the call wall and absolute gamma strike both shifted significantly lower. And that was one reason. And then I'll talk about setups and hero and what options traders were doing in just a few minutes. So right now NASDAQ is trading down below the upper weekly and daily expected move. And again, I talked about shifts and levels for QQQ volatility trigger and put wall shifted higher more significantly call wall and absolute gamma strike shifted lower. And again, round numbers for NQ and QQQ have definitely been in play for today. Alright, let's take a look at some other data now. We'll take a look at gamma notional. This is market makers position on the gamma curve at the beginning of the day for SPX spy and DX and QQQ. So what this is showing is market makers position on the game of gamma curve again at the beginning of the day, positive for SPX. And that number did shift slightly higher from 451 yesterday to 504 and then negative for spy and QQQ. So for spy, the number shifted slightly more negative from 411 yesterday minus 411 to minus 427. And then there was a significant shift lower for QQQ from positive 23 today to minus 462. And let's just take a look at let's take a look at the Vana model for QQQ. So QQQ is trading right around at the bottom of the curve. So what this is showing is market makers delta notional and how that changes with changes in price and implied volatility that shown by the purple curve. And what this is showing is if price starts to move lower, so moves down below that 380 absolute gamma strike, then the move lower could accelerate as market makers delta notional increases, and they will have to sell in Q futures to hedge their delta exposure. Alright, so gamma notional again, positive for SPX and negative for spy and QQQ. Alright, let's take a look at some setups. So I'm going to start with the S&P 500. This is spot gamma hero. Hero stands for hedging impact real time options. This is showing price with a white line for SPX and options trades and resulting market maker hedging activity for a combined signal for SPX, spy, XSP and ES futures. Alright, let's take a closer look at this. So I'm going to zoom in on the morning session here. And this was a nice divergent setup here. Know that he wrote made a series of lower highs, price made equal highs, and then began to move lower. So setting up a divergent short in in the S&P 500. Let's go to take a look at that in book map. Go back to ES. I'm going to zoom in just this a little bit. So we're just looking at the at the morning RTH session. So we know that traders were taking negative delta positions. And market makers have to hedge that. They take the opposite side, they have to hedge that by selling futures. And the next thing we can see here in book map is larger traders were selling with iceberg orders. So this first arrow pointing to 188 1835 contracts executed. Those are again, iceberg orders, large traders used to hide their size they're selling also 2383 405. That's also shown by the falling blue line here. So options traders taking negative delta positions, larger trading traders selling with iceberg orders and price moves lower. And note that as the move gets going, this yellow line is showing that sell stop orders shown by these red dots help to fuel the move lower, as well as aggressive sellers. You can just see all the pink dots here. Those are by minus sell so market sell orders dominating. That's also shown by the following dark blue line that's cumulative volume delta. So a nice short set up at starting around 945 to 10 o'clock. You an easy entry point there was the spy 459 down to multiple targets below price made it almost to the 457 level. That's about 1115. Let's see what options traders were doing at that time. So options traders make one attempt at long delta positions. They reverse that. Then they make more attempts. So price moves higher as higher and lower as traders take positive and negative delta positions. Then let's look at this last move. So this looks like this, this setup may be triggered by news may be triggered by by the options market showing a divergent short here. And then price drops pretty sharply. Just after 1pm. Let's go take a look at book map. So here's that short set up at that 4599 resistance. Alright, so short setups in in the SMB 500. Let's take a look at NASDAQ. So remember 385 is the QQQ call wall. Alright, so order flow is definitely bearish here. Large traders selling with iceberg orders shown body falling light blue line up until about 1030 cumulative volume delta was also bearish falling. And then sell stop orders also fueling the move lower. Let's see what options traders were doing. Alright, so let's go to the NASDAQ signal now. So just like the SMB 500. This is a combined signal for NDX and QQQ. And I posted this in discord this morning. This was just a beautiful divergent setup. It was it was just very clear that you'll less than 10 minutes after the RTH open that traders were taking negative delta positions. So setting up great shorts. Let's go take a look at back to book map for entry point. So the first was the NQ 15900. Next around the QQQ 384 level. Next 15,850 NQ level. And then finally, one more short entry around the upper weekly expected move. That's also QQQ 383. And all in all that ended up being more than a 100 NQ 100 point move lower. As traders were taking negative delta positions, large traders selling with iceberg orders. Of course, the size and NQ is not nearly the same as ES sell stop orders fueling the move lower, as well as the aggressive sellers. You can see all the pink dots there. Also the falling dark blue line cumulative volume delta. I know he says he saw the post great analysis. Yeah, definitely got interesting after the as soon as my webinar ended and the press conference began. So the, you know, of course, the 25 basis point rate hike was already baked in. Everybody knew there was a 99% chance of that happening. So that was not news. But what was news was the what Jerome Powell had to say in the press conference that began at 230. So that is when when the fund began. Alright, and thanks. Thanks for the compliment. Alright, so set up this morning, short set up in NASDAQ. Again, I posted that in in discord, as well as the the setup from yesterday afternoon right after the press conference began. Right. So that's NASDAQ from from this morning, and then continues lower. Now down to the QQQ 380 absolute gamma strike. Alright, let's take a look at some stocks now and then we'll start start with the stock of the day meta and maybe finding support at the 315 level. So let's zoom in on today. So again, I'm looking at the RTH session yesterday here. And then the sharp move higher after meta reported earnings. Met it made it all the way up to 380 on 330. And then now has continued to move lower. We'll see what options creators are doing. Let's zoom in. We'll zoom in on the session today. And we'll see what options traders are doing. Let's go to meta. We'll zoom out on the morning a little bit. So initially, traders were taking positive delta positions. And that faded pretty quickly, right around 945. And let's see what they were doing. So that initial pop higher was all traders buying calls. And they were buying calls that were were expensive. Maybe not so much anymore is implied volatility drops. So as soon as they stop buying calls, again, meta reported earnings implied volatility could get a drop after after a company reports earnings implied volatility drops. Those calls are losing value, traders may be taking profits, but price responds. And also they are buying puts, not actually not doing that much with puts. But overall, the the slope of this line is down. So bearish reversal lower there in in meta, and hero providing a good confirmation of that short, short setup. Let's go back and take a look at book map. So here's the open right at 930, right around 325. So at the open, it looks like meta was up around 25 points. And now from the open has dropped 10 points down to 315. Alright, so that's meta. Let's take a look at couple of other stocks here, AMD, both AMD and Nvidia have been pretty strong today. Semiconductors strong apparently. Right, let's take a look at back to hero, go to AMD. So traders are buying calls that show them by the rising orange line, strong correlation between call buyers and price action. When traders buy calls, market makers sell the calls. Stop ESU three CME sell 869. Sorry, I need to turn that alert off. So when traders buy calls, market makers sell the calls and they have to buy stock to hedge their delta exposure. And notice how price responds when traders stop buying calls. And then when they start again, and so now around 1245, they took the foot off the gas. And now prices moving lower. Let's go back to boot map AMD rising up until around the 115 level. And then traders take again, take the foot off the gas, the call buyer stop. And now prices moving lower. I'm just going to turn this alert off. So there's AMD. And let's take a look at what we're looking at. Semiconductor stocks, take a look at Nvidia and note that 470 is the call wall were 70 is the call wall. Note the high liquidity at that level. And for Nvidia, the liquidity usually stacks up at the zeros and the fives, the big round numbers. Well, let's see what options traders are doing. Let's go to Nvidia, again, driven by calls, pretty similar to the chart for AMD call buyers take the foot off the gas, and price starts to move lower. And it looks like they're also buying puts as well. And let's see if I've got a couple more I want to look at. Let's take a look at Google traders buying calls earlier today. Pretty similar to AMD and Nvidia traders buying calls price moves up, they saw down there buying continue buying puts, and price moves lower. So it looks like somewhat of a round trip for Google today. We'll take a look at book map in just a moment. Note that 130 is the call wall and the key gamma strike. Let's go take a look at book map. Alright, so traders have taken their foot off the gas on the calls for Google. And now Google is moving lower. Like many other stocks. Let's take a look at Microsoft. And Floyd's garage asked, What was the weekly expected move again? Do you mean for SPX? If so, we'll take a look at that in in just a minute. Alright, so Microsoft definitely bearish today. Let's see what options traders were doing. So options traders for Microsoft, definitely taking negative delta positions. 335 is the hedge wall. Looks like 340 is the key gamma strike. Here's the 340 key gamma strike. Looks like around that level was resistance. 335 support a couple times now prices trading below that level, maybe heading down to the 330 put wall. So 340 335 and 330. Let's take a look at book map. Microsoft. So here the key levels, 340 around that level resistance, some support at the 335 level. And then our prices trading below that hedge wall level. As traders take negative delta positions. Alright, so Floyd's garage is asking about ES. So I tracked the weekly expected move for ES and SPX separately. And I have the it's a little bit easier to see the weekly expected move for SPX. I've got it on this chart here. So for SPX, and I give this more, more weight than the weekly expected moves for ES. So for SPX, right around 4480. In case you can't read that, it probably may be difficult to read. And then the upper weekly expected move right around 4592. So that's for SPX. And then if you do need it, I've got here's the for ES. Oops, and I should have this. Sometimes I do this pretty late and and forget to round the numbers. Alright, so anyway, those are the Alright, so that's for ES. And Floyd's garage says, could you ask at 39 those? You know, you can do that. I don't know what that I don't know why you would do that. The ES to SPX difference is 26 points. So anyway, those are the lower weekly and weekly and lower and upper weekly expected move and lower and upper daily expected move for ES. And this is what I use to display that information on my chart. Right, Floyd's garage that number ES to SPX number changes every day. It gets a little bit smaller as the contract rollover approaches. So I I calculate that every day. There are a couple of ways to do it. The easiest way is in thinkorswim. If you have thinkorswim, you can just put an equation in there slash ES minus SPX. And that's showing right now just a little bit less than 26. Maybe it'll difficult to see but it is looks like it's ranging between 25.5 and 26. And then this is what I use for NQ minus NDX. And I'm using 103 today. So that's what I use to show the correct NDX levels on my NQ chart and the correct SPX levels on my ES chart. So I take those numbers, plug them into my spreadsheet. All right, let me show you one other thing. This is from spot gamma equity hub. And this is showing this is something new in equity hub showing this risk reversal compares the price of a call to the price of a put. And that is the that is this, I don't know what color that is more purplish color. That is the risk reversal. And this is price. That's what these two lines represent. So notice that this overall the trend of the price of calls to puts has increased as and prices responding. So price calls are becoming more expensive, indicating there's a demand for calls. And again, this is for NVIDIA just to show an example. So there's a demand for calls implied volatility increases. And the price of those calls increase because of demand. But that can't last forever. Notice the last time the risk reversal reached this was in 2021 towards the end of 2021. Notice as price reaches this level here, calls just get too expensive. And traders start selling the calls. And price moves lower. So notice the risk reversal peak there. And then price shown by this line moves lower. And that lasted for quite a while, almost a year until traders started buying calls. Demand increases price increases. And again, that will, you know, that will end at some point just think of AMC and GameStop. You know, back in the, you know, the meme days, I guess that was 2021. So anyway, just something to keep in mind. Alright, let's take a look at the live market now. Let's go to SAP 500. If anybody has any stocks they want me to take a look at, let me know. Alright, so for the SAP 500, it looks like options traders are starting to get interested in the lows here and taking positive delta positions. Let's see what they're doing. So what this what these numbers show is traders net for the day are buying calls shown by the positive number of the rising orange line. And they're also buying puts shown by the negative number there. So far, the put buyers are more aggressive and prices moving lower. So notional value for the day for puts around minus 3.9 billion versus calls positive 2.2 billion. So overall net minus 1.7 billion. Let's go take a look at book map. We'll take a look at the SAP 500. So the downtrend continues price below broke below the 456 volatility trigger and the ES 4600 level, then found resistance at the spy 455 absolute gamma strike. And oops, I have the wrong label there that 454. Hold on just a second. Let me check on that. Let me fix that. So spy 454 wrong spreadsheet. I must not have updated. Alright, so oh, that is correct. 454 is the zero gamma level. Sorry about that. Alright, so that is correct. 455 the absolute gamma strike 454 zero gamma level. And traders have resumed taking negative Delta positions. Let's take a look at NASDAQ. And so far, the hedging flow has been bearish all day. And here, both numbers are negative, indicating that traders are buying puts and selling calls. Although it looks like they have stopped selling calls, the orange line has started to rise. The blue line continues lower as they continue to take negative Delta positions. Let's go take a look at book map. Alright, so for QQQ again, 380 is the absolute gamma strike 379 is the volatility trigger. So now QQQ is trading below its volatility trigger. Let's go back and take a look at the QQQ Vana model. So this move could potentially accelerate as traders, as market makers position on the gamma curve becomes more negative, and they have to sell futures to hedge their Delta exposure. So in this case, in this portion of the gamma curve, market makers or traders are long puts, market makers are short puts, and as price decreases and implied volatility increases, they have to sell futures to hedge their Delta exposure. And order flow has been been bearish for most of the day, large traders selling with iceberg orders, shown by this just steady, steady drop in the light blue line and sell stop orders also fueling the move lower. Alright, my time is up. And final check for questions. I don't see anything. I want to thank everyone for watching. Thanks for your questions and comments. Remember tomorrow PCE comes out at 830am Eastern Time consumer sentiment at 10am. And then I will see you tomorrow afternoon. So thanks everyone. Thanks for watching. Thanks for your questions and comments. And I will see you tomorrow. Bye