 Welcome, everyone. Welcome to Options with Doug, streaming live daily at 1.30 p.m. Eastern Time on Bookmap Discord and the Bookmap YouTube channel. Before I go any further, let me go through the disclosures. General disclosure, all Bookmap limited materials, information, and presentations are for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations. Risk disclosure, trading futures, equities, and options involve substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. As a reminder, my presentation and the Options with Doug channel at Bookmap Discord is very focused and the focus is options, order flow, the impact of options markets on stocks and futures, and the influence of market maker hedging flow on price action. I have a two-step process for trading. The first step is planning and that is based on positional analysis. I look at how market makers and traders are positioned in the options market and then how those positions change from day to day to help develop a thesis regarding expected volatility, expected training range for the day, as well as a directional bias. Other traders use more traditional approaches like technical analysis or fundamental analysis and I use positional analysis. I think this is a new way of looking at the market that I believe provides a significant edge. The second step in my process is education. Once the market opens, I look at real-time order flow in Bookmap and market maker hedging flow with Spot Gama Hero to confirm my thesis and to find setups for the day. On-topic questions and comments are welcome and I will be watching chat in the Options with Doug chat and Bookmap Discord as well as the chat in YouTube. So again, on-topic questions or comments are welcome. Okay, that's out of the way. So today what I'm going to talk about is first of all some news. Go over the economic data that's coming out this week. The reason I do that is that does have an impact on price action as well as how traders and market makers may be positioned in the options market. And the data that is coming out this week is, there's still, there's plenty of data coming out, but nothing as significant as last week with the CPI report and the FOMC announcement. And hello Tom, welcome. Are you lost? Glad to see you. Okay, so let's take a look at some of that news. And first of all, this is the economic calendar for the U.S. United States for this week. And just want to quickly cover this. Tomorrow this is showing building permits at 8.30 a.m. as a high importance event, a high importance event. And I'm not so sure about that, but that's what this is showing anyway. And then on Tuesday, this consumer confidence out at 10 a.m. and that could have a short-term impact on price action. And then on Thursday there is the GDP, also this PCE, all coming out at 8.30. And then Friday there's another PCI report as well as durable goods. So a trickling out of data all week that could have an impact on price action. And as a trader it's important to keep up with that and be aware of it. So that is the news coming out. Now let's take a look at our positional analysis. And the first thing that I typically look at is the support and resistance levels. And these are shown on my ES chart here. And these are the, there's only one support level in play. And that is shown here at the, this is the SPX 3835 level. And that is the call wall. And I'll talk about that more in a minute. The significance is that is the call and the JP Morgan caller. So what I believe JP Morgan does is they sell a call to buy a put spread further down. So this is the JP Morgan call and the JP Morgan caller. And this is, this expires on December 30th. So that is the, that's the only support level that's in play so far today. And again a reminder last Friday was the monthly options expiration. And it was a big expiration and there were quite a few shifts in levels in the SPX and SPI. So I'll talk about those. First of all, and let's go take a look at the S&P 500 charts. So this is the absolute gamma levels. And this is showing first of all the SPX put wall shifted down to 3800 and from 3900. So as a reminder the put wall is the level with the highest net negative gamma. And can often act as support. And that's typically my expectation that that level will be support. And you can see these significant gamma levels on the put side below zero. Shown by these teal lines here from 3800 to 4000. And also as I mentioned the call wall also shifted down. And that was a significant shift down from 4000 to 3835. And that's the strike right here. So that is the strike with the highest net positive gamma. And it's pretty insignificant compared to these other levels. The big round numbers 3800, 3900. And then 4000 is still the key gamma strike or the absolute gamma strike. Now let's take a look at SPI levels. And this one thing to note here is the significant build in put positions. Really below 390 from 370 or primarily let's say 375 to 390. And just a couple of weeks ago there was a significant difference in the call positions. Now SPX and SPI have shifted much more towards a negative gamma part of the curve. So the market makers now have a negative gamma position. Meaning that traders are long puts, market makers are short puts, and they have to sell futures as price drops to hedge their delta exposure. So the shifts for SPI and actually the call wall shifted up to 410. And that looks like just a technicality to me based on the definition of the call wall. It's not really a significant strike. So the significant strikes now are 390 down to 375. And actually 380 is probably more of a road block getting to 375. And the SPI key gamma strike now is at 380. And that is the strike with the highest net absolute gamma. And if you recall last week I was talking about the potential for a Vanna rally on Monday that has been pretty typical this year in a negative gamma environment. Traders will, again traders are long puts, market makers are short puts, and on expiration Friday a lot of those puts go away, they expire. And then on Monday market makers can buy back their short hedges because they don't need them anymore as those puts have expired. Well that really, as we can see, the S&P 500 is dropping and that really didn't happen today. And the reason is that traders rolled out both their in the money puts and in the money calls out and strike so further out and strike and in time. And this was particularly heavy on the put side. So traders just rolled their puts out further out in time and further out in strike. So they have initiated new positions further out of the money and that is shown indicated by the drops in the put wall for SPX and the key gamma strike for SPI. And also one other thing to note the put wall for SPI is at 380 as well. One other thing is I pointed out there that 3,800 level was the large critical support line. And let's just go take a look at that again. And there's that 3,800 level and the corresponding 380 level in SPI. And now let's take a look at some data and a couple of things I want to point out here. First is the gamma notional and this indicates the market makers position on the gamma curve. So this is indicating again that market makers are in a pretty significant negative gamma position. Meaning again traders are long puts, market makers are short puts and they have to sell futures as price decreases and they can buy back those futures as price increases. So that tends to add to volatility. And one other thing to point out here is the implied moves for the week. And spot gamma is calling for, this is based on the SPX Monday reference price of $38.51. So this is about a plus or minus 100 point range for the week. And we can compare that with thinkorswim and we'll go to SPX. And this is showing right now by Friday expiration and this would be the weekly, so this would be the PM or Friday afternoon settlement, plus or minus 70 points. So a little bit less than what spot gamma is forecasting for the expected move for the week. And finally let's go to the Vanna charts. We'll take a look at SPX first. And for anybody new, what this is indicating is how market makers delta exposure changes as price implied volatility change and time passes. And what this is showing, this confirms the, this is typical of negative gamma environment. This just confirms that market makers delta exposure, delta notional increases as price falls and they have to sell futures to hedge their delta exposure. And it works the other way around as price increases, they can buy back those short futures. So again, that tends to increase volatility. And let's just take a look and see how that has changed over time. And just to point out the green curve indicates the delta notional how that changes with changes in implied volatility and the black line and that, so that's the Vanna effect. And then the black line shows how delta notional changes with the passage of time and that's the charm effect. So again, let's see how that has changed over time. A minor change from Friday and then a pretty significant shift from December 15th last Thursday. And let's take a look at SPI and the same shifts. So again, just another confirmation that market makers are on the negative part of the gamma curve. Okay, let's, so that's my positional analysis. And from that, that I conclude there's the expected volatility is about in line with Friday. So I'm looking for a wider trading range today and more volatility. And also based on the shifts lower in the put wall, call wall, and the key gamma strike for SPI, more of a bearish directional bias. Okay, so let's take a look at some setups now. And every day, every morning in bookmap discord, I post this watch list. This is my spot gamma hero watch list. And I rank it from the either the weakest signal to this or this to the strongest signal or the strongest signal to the weakest signal. And I meant to show this, this as well. So this is something else. This is the same watch list. And I also track how the key gamma strike changes from from day to day. So this is the key gamma strike for the previous day. So that would be from last Friday. And the red color indicates that that level dropped from the previous day. And green would indicate that there was that it increased from the previous day. So, you know, as you can see, there was a pretty significant shift lower on Friday with the key gamma strike for a number of these stocks. And then today, there was still a few shifts lower. And the significant thing here, I think, is noting the the shifts lower and spy. This was a shift lower on Friday and another shift lower on on today. And that is a I interpret that as bearish. Okay, now let's go take a look at at the list again. So this is this is part of my positional analysis. This is part of my part of my planning. And then let's take a look at that. So then right after the market opens, I usually post this. Maybe I try to post it 15 to 20 minutes after the open and I rank this list. And again, it's the same list mostly mostly large cap tech stocks with a few higher beta stocks thrown in there. And I'm ranking by the weakest signal to the strongest signal today and just want to make it clear. When I ranked this list from weakest to strongest, I'm looking for shorts. I'm bearish and I am looking for shorts. And then if I ranked it from strongest to weakest, I would be looking for bullish setups. So what this is showing is that spy, for example, here showing this red circle is the weakest that it has been in the last 30 days. And that's shown by this light gray slider here. And then the colored part would be the last five days. So the hero signal for spy is showing that hero is the weakest that it has been in the last 30 days and weaker that it has been in the last five days. So let's go through the list in that order. And again, I'm looking for shorts. So let's go take a look at. Spy Gaming hero right now. And by the way, there has been a release of a new version of hero that came out that is in dark mode. And I'm still using the old version here. And let me just check YouTube for questions. Oops, and I think I'm looking at the wrong thing here. Okay, no questions in YouTube, so I'll go ahead and proceed. So this is spot gamma hero. And this is showing market maker options trades and the resulting market maker hedging activity. And let's zoom in on this. So this is spy and it is showing traders are in the morning taking negative delta positions. And one thing to note is this is pretty typical behavior in spy is price take is at a high point for the day. Traders are selling that so they're they think that spy price is high and they are selling calls and buying puts. And then that behavior reverses often as price starts to drop. And they start here buying puts and a little bit later selling calls. So the this orange line is calls and the blue line is puts. And this is pretty typical in spy and it can lead to some good divergence setups. So that was that was the case this morning. Let's zoom in on this a bit. It looks so there was a nice divergence setup here and the entry points would have been just looking at this chart. We'll look at book map in just a moment here as traders were buying puts. And as they do that market makers are selling the puts and they have to either sell futures or in the case of spy they can sell spy shares. They're probably selling futures and then the next setup would be there. But spy SPX and ES are all versions of the exact same product. All right let's go take a look at book map now. So here's spy. Here's that first setup if you were fast enough. And then here's the the second setup and this purple line is the point of control. So the first reversal is at VWAP that that blue line light blue line here and the second reversal at point of control. And then another entry at the 383 level and the VWAP. So what I'm looking for is pullback entries. So I see the divergence the put divergence. That's the first step. Then I go to book map and I'm looking for an entry point for a for a short here again is the first entry point multiple entry points. And then I'm looking for a target and there it is the 380 put wall has been in play all day and notice the high liquidity at that level as well. And we can brighten that up just a little bit and you can see the high liquidity there. So the the targets were at this 35 level and then at the the primary target at the 380 put wall. So this was really about the best setup of the day and notice it was at the top of the list. So the you know things that that align using one of Tom's terms. So the things that align were first of all the falling key gamma strike. So key gamma strike falling from 400 on the 15th to 390 on the 16th to 380 today. So that's definitely bearish. And then the traders taking negative delta positions soon after the open and then you know finally this 380 put wall on the high liquidity there is as a target. So things lined up very well here for this setup. And you know this could have been traded any number of ways with with ES you know if you trade futures there's their setup. And what we'll see look we'll look at the that hero for ES in just a moment and it's very close to spy. So you could trade ES trade spy shares trade spy options or SP SPX options. So with the S&P 500 there are a number of number of ways to take a trade. All right let's go look at let's take a look at ES now and that's the next one on the list and pretty similar to spy. And that has been the case the last few weeks. And this is showing the combined trades options trades for SPX and spy and SPX does look a little bit different than spy today. And we'll take a look at that in just a moment. So you know one thing to point out again and this behavior is typical of the S&P 500 is as price falls traders start to take positive delta positions. So this is again pretty typical of the S&P 500. Traders are taking advantage of falling prices for example to let's see what they're doing. I would expect that there are selling puts yes. So the rising blue line indicates traders are selling puts and they're also buying calls. But again that behavior in the S&P 500 can lead to some some good divergence setups. While we're on the S&P 500 let's take a look at SPX and here as I noted the behavior has been different. So they have been selling puts from the open and then started buying calls a little bit later. So the again the ES signal is including both the spy and the SPX. Okay let's take a look at let's just go down the list. I moved Netflix to my other computer here so I'm not going to show that show that a book map. But there was a strong correlation this morning between the hero signal and price action and that did not last long. So not a lot of clarity in Netflix and I actually removed Rivenia from my Rivian from my watch list and added Moderna. And I'm showing Moderna on my main computer and we'll take a look at that in just a moment. So Microsoft here it is in spot game a hero and there was a very strong correlation between options trades and price action. And this is a this vertical line here shows a block trade and traders were a large trader sold calls there. And let's go take a look at Microsoft in book map. So nice nice setup here in Microsoft and great liquidity targets down below at the 240 239 and 238 level. And let's just see if there's see what's below. And then 235 is the put wall. Microsoft might not be strong enough to get there today. And again I like pullback entries. Here's the first to the 243 level and then the reversal lower here at the VWAP and then a drop below the 242 level with the 240 as the first target. And now it looks like prices made it to the next target and then the next below is 238. Let's just go back to back to hero and take a look at that again. So traders have been taking negative delta positions all day. So the way I would interpret this is you can see this line sloping down price increases and just look for a bear setup bearish entry here. And let me check for questions in YouTube and JC what which instrument are you referring to? If it's if it's Microsoft here or I can use this as an example and this shows let me just zoom in on this so we get rid of this big block trade. And this shows that traders are buying puts and the the blue line is puts and a falling blue line means they're taking a negative delta position. And so they're buying puts and they're selling calls. So those are both negative delta positions. The question looking that and looking at this in the five minute five minute rolling window. Yeah, I can do that and it's pretty noisy. I normally don't don't look at the the five minute rolling window. It's just it's too jittery. Too much noise. I think this provides a lot more clarity the 30 minute this 30 minute look back period. But in the morning I typically keep it just keep it at the one day look back period. Then trading in the afternoon I would most likely switch to the 30 minute rolling window. All right, the next on the list is Apple strong correlation first thing in the morning up until about 10 o'clock, mainly with calls. So traders were selling calls. And let's go take a look at at book map now Apple. From what I see here the level and play the primary target is this 130 put wall. So traders that good good drop in the morning toward the put wall and then traders are starting to buy. Let's take a look at at hero again. And this is showing traders taking positive delta positions right around 11 o'clock and that stops the drop. And now they have reversed again and there looks like they're starting to let's change the look back period. So now it looks like they are mildly buying puts and selling calls. So good good short set up in the morning book map with that 130 put wall target. Not really in play today, most likely, but it might have been this morning with this nice drop and pull back entries to VWAP 134 133. And the first liquidity target there at 132 and then the primary target at the 130 put wall. And I'm going to skip over meta and it was really, we'll take a look at it in book map pretty choppy today. And there was some news, bearish news, negative news, I guess, regarding the EU. All right, so the next thing is let's look at Google. And I've got a few of these stocks on my other computer. And once I go through the stocks on my primary computer here, I will, we can take a look at some of those. So let's go take a look at hero for Google. So right now we're skipping over meta. There was nothing, nothing here really to see. And I'm going to skip all the way down to Google. We've already looked at SPX and we'll look at, we'll look at Disney after that. So this is showing a pretty strong correlation between options, trades and price action in Google. And let's break out puts and calls. And really there's been more correlation, at least in the morning. Let's zoom in on this in the morning with calls. And a little bit of a divergent setup here as traders started selling calls and then price followed just a few minutes later. And let's go take a look at book map again. And the order flow is, is pretty, pretty clear here. Trader selling at the opens, big sell sweep. And the first reversal lower point of control. And the second reversal lower at, in the absorption at 91, the liquidity there and point of control. And then the third reversal entry point lower at the, at VWAP. Not a lot of range in Google today. And that's, that's pretty typical. And the key delta strike, the 90 was a, was a target. And then the 89, 8950 and 89 liquidity next targets. And it looks like a nice liquidity target there at 88 down below. And let's take a look at Nvidia. Pretty choppy day in Nvidia. And let's just take a look at hero, pretty strong correlation with puts. And I'm going to, let's change this rolling window to 30 minutes here. And it's a little bit more clear. It's not always that way. But I think there were clear trades, especially spy and block and really stronger correlation with puts. And this looks like a nice divergent setup this morning. Let's zoom in on that. So first of all, traders are taking negative delta positions. And they price increases. And then there's your entry point setups there and there as hero continues to decrease. And then price starts to make a, start to make a lower high. And the last two that I want to actually, let's take a look at QQQ. So this was really no correlation up until about 1030. And then strong correlation. Well, actually no, a little bit of a correlation between options trades and price action from around 1030 to 11. But it looks like traders are definitely, this kind of looks like the SBX chart. Traders are definitely fading this move. So they're taking advantage of lower prices, mainly to buy calls. So they're buying calls and buying puts. So not a lot of clarity there to me. They were spy, the S&P 500 was a much better setup. And then Tesla, as usual, there's a very strong correlation between price action and options trades. And a stronger correlation with puts, at least in the morning. And this was a, like a pretty good sign to look for, look for a bearish entry. Let's go look at book map. So good signals here in order flow. A sweep up into the liquidity at 155. Then a pullback made a lower high to 154. And then the next pullback at 152 with a primary target or initial target at the 150 key gamma strike. And all that liquidity there. And then the next target would have been the 145 level. And I usually, again, when I'm looking for a signal, I usually, if I'm looking for a bear setup, I rank my list by the weakest of the strongest, I start at the top. So I often like to look at Tesla, but it was actually showing a pretty strong signal this morning. It was actually a great setup here in order flow, but it didn't really align with the strength of the signal. Then the last, let's just look at Moderna. Again, this is a new stock on my list. And let's take a look at Hero. And again, here are Tesla and Moderna on the bottom of the list with the strongest signals. And not a lot of clarity there up until, you know, let's say 945 to 10 o'clock. This is a large block trade in the morning that kind of confuses the signal. And some large trader was buying calls. And other traders took advantage of that. And they started selling the calls 945. All right, let's, I'm going to go to go to my other computer here. So bear with me just a moment as I share my screen. And Disney's the first one that I want to take a look at. And pretty weak stock today. Let's go take a look at Hero for Disney. And there's a very strong correlation between Hero and price action for Disney, mainly calls. So traders are selling calls. And that is a key part of driving price action. You know, from this, you could pick out a few divergent setups. And this was the, probably the best one right here, just around 1030. And let's go take a look at Bookmap. And that's shown right here. This reversal at VWAP and 88 with clear price targets down below at 87 and 86. Now I want to take a look at Block. And let's go take a look at Spot Gamma. It's way down here. But there was, you know, I thought a strong correlation here between price action and Hero. And a bit of a divergent signal here in the morning as Hero continued to drop. Price increased and set up the reversal lower here at 62. And let me check for questions in YouTube. And there's a question about why Tesla went down today yet had a strong Hero signal. Sometimes it just, you know, I guess it just works on that. It works that way. You know, the signal compared to the last five days and the last 30 days was strong. And for Tesla, that's not really saying much. It's been falling so much. You know, overall, though, in the morning, let's go look at Tesla in Bookmap here. You know, overall in the morning, it was still very weak. So even though compared with the last five days and last 30 days, Hero was strong. It's, you know, it was still weak enough. You know, we saw the, let's go to Tesla. You know, saw the strong correlation between Hero and price action and Tesla. So that list ranking is just a starting point. And sometimes generally, I would say it works out well. You know, sometimes it doesn't, even though, you know, here Hero is again showing a strong correlation both as price moves lower and higher. And why do I look at the weakest Hero signal for bearish plays? Because it works. That is, you know, I think the, I don't know, the natural, natural way to look at the list to me. The most logical way is to look at, start with the weakest Hero, Hero signals. Again, as a starting point for looking for shorts. Hope that answers your question. Again, that list is a starting point. And to me, it just makes the most sense. And it typically works very well. You know, the list, there were good bearish setups on every stock that we, that we looked at. Let me just go back to discord, see if there are any questions. And I don't see any questions. Again, just a quick summary for today. For the S&P 500, the anticipated Vanna rally, put Vanna rally, did not happen. Traders just rolled their puts down and strike and further out in time. And I thought the S&P 500, whether you chose to trade that and spy SPX or ES, provided the best signal this morning. Maybe not the highest range, but definitely the best signal. And stocks, there were some good short setups, but nothing like Friday. There was just, you know, I guess a bounty or a bonanza of great short setups. So anyway, you know, today, and we also looked at the expected trading range for the day. And I would expect volume to diminish as the week goes on. And, you know, you never, never can tell what's going to happen with price action in a negative gamma low volatility environment. But, you know, I would not necessarily expect for, expect trade anything like last week with the big news event. So anyway, that's what I have for today. And thank you for your attendance, your questions and comments. And I will see you tomorrow. Thanks again. Bye.