 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of TheAxisTrader.com. We can update show. Hope everybody is doing well. Hope everybody had a great weekend. Hope everybody had a really good first week of trading. It's 2023, brand new year, brand new start to the year. The question remains is what is going to happen this year? If you look at going back into last year stats, again just kind of a quick reminder I think everybody knows. Pretty dismal starts. You have S&P down almost 19% and you have the NASDAQ composite down 33%. So anything, any type of baby steps on the first week of the year would be a positive sign. At least mentally, especially for a lot of investors, not necessarily traders, but a lot of investors who went and took all the pain to the downside in 2022. The question was what was going to happen? If you looked at the first part of the year, first part of the week, again we opened the same way we opened below the 50 day moving average in 2022. You had two, three days of pretty good selling followed by a dead cat bounce day, followed by another aggressive sell off prior to the December jobs number that came out on Friday. And Friday we had our first pretty good, I mean pretty solid rally of the year. If you look at this final statistics, Dow down, excuse me, up 700 points you had about 2%, everything moved about 2% of the S&P and the NASDAQ all up about 2-2.5% for the day. But if you look at the final standings towards the week after everything was all said and done, a really good aggressive powerful rally on Friday. And again, if you look at the jobs data, and again I'm not one of the big ones who's going to start breaking down sentence by sentence, but the Fed basically is making their point that they believe that inflation is cooling. The rate heights are working and they are optimistic it will continue to do so. And then you have statements on the other hand, for example, Atlanta Fed President Bostick, who basically came out and be like, well, let's not get crazy. We don't expect, we don't expect rates to come down. Matter of fact, we expect the rates to hold over 5%, not only for 2003, but possibly 2024. But eventually all this Fed talk, all these rates talk, inflation talk, like everything else throughout Wall Street's history. Remember we had a pandemic, how this is going to crush the whole universe, right? Remember we were rallying to all-time hives after the pandemic started. So eventually investors and traders, they get numb to it. And Friday was a perfect example of, well, investors at least for one day. Investors and traders at least for one day were numb to the news, big powerful rally into the close, and now kind of sets us up for Monday session. Now the question is going into Monday session. And again, if you guys look at the indexes and we'll get into the individual areas where I think bulls and bears have to reclaim their respective numbers. I think one of the biggest aspects when you go look back into 2022 was the big spikes in the market based on Fed Minutes, based on Fed Governors' conversation, based on Chairman Powell's intraday comments. And the one thing that you'll notice for 2022, even this last example, going into November, going into December, a lot of the Fed news, a lot of the Fed comments that deemed to be really good and had really big one or two day runs ultimately faded. Like here was the CPI in November, had a big run and then faded. If you guys remember Chairman Powell had their whole Powell pump rally. You guys remember that really, really big aggressive 4.5% move after 230 on November the 30th? That got faded. The December CPI, that came out, that got faded. And the question is now what happens based on what we saw. Does it have to get faded? Absolutely not. Nothing is set in stone. If that was set in stone based on historical events, then everybody should have been short max size going into Monday's session. But we don't know. That's the whole point. Nobody knows what's going to happen. We have data. We try to study the data. We try to use that data's information to kind of work our game plan into the next day. But at the end of the day, nobody knows what's going to happen. That's the whole point of why we always talk about. Don't guess, right? Don't guess. Let the data play out. Nobody knows what's going to happen the next day. You always have to prepare on the long side. You always have to prepare to the short shot just in case the market doesn't play out in your direction. Before we go on, guys, as always, I really do appreciate everybody's support for this channel. If you could be so kind, if you are getting value, drop a like on the video. If you are brand new to this channel, we try to give an unbiased view of the market going into the next day. Now the next week, next month, the next year, into the next day with data points of technical analysis. So if you are new, please subscribe to the channel and share this journey with us. Coming into Monday's session, we do see, right? And that's the whole point of collecting data. We do see a majority of stocks trading closer to their upper channels than they do to their bottom channels. So when you're closing to the top of the channel versus the bottom, obviously, on anybody's, right? Anybody's process or train of thought, you want to see that confirmation from Friday's trading day back to Monday. Does it have to happen to be determined? But at least we are prepared. And that's the whole point. So let's talk about some areas of the market that the bulls and the bears need to defend. So Friday, big, big move obviously in the S&P, 87 points move in S&P. And they traded right back to the 50-day moving average, right? So going into the foreseeable future doesn't even have to be for Monday because it's such a big channel. As you can see here, 3,800 held one, two, three times, right? It held three times. So 3,800 on the S&P is going to be the line in the sand, right? That's a very, very big number. And obviously, the bulls don't want to give back this candle and the bears desperately want to reclaim back for a possible move back to this bull and germana 3740. On the flip side, the bulls desperately, you see where this light blue line is, right? See how many times it's gotten rejected with this light blue line, right? That's the 50-day moving average. That is where the whole narrative of the market could potentially change. And this is why the bulls initially got rejected off the 50-day moving average on Friday's rally. So what the bulls need to do is get above this 3906 on the close. You see how the high here was 3906, right? The 50-day moving average, 3904. So the bulls need to desperately close above 3904. If we can close above that 3904, 3905 area, then yeah, there's a really, really good chance this rally is prolonged and it doesn't become a debt-cad balance anymore. It becomes something a little more meaningful, a little more meat on its bones. And then you could have a pretty good staircase going all the way up to this 39, 69, 39, 70 level. So it's pretty important for the bulls to take what they started on Friday, good baby steps. Obviously not going to make back everything what they lost in 2022. But it was a very good positive effect, whether you call it a debt-cad balance, we will see whether this was the bottom, nobody cares. And again, another thing, guys, everybody's so bent on calling a bottom or finding a bottom. Who cares? What's the difference? How is this so meaningful in your life that you found the bottom or caught a bottom? We're trading by the day. We're not trading by the year. It's like somebody turning around and going at 200. Tesla's definitely a bottom. At 180, Tesla's definitely a bottom. Tesla 101, Tesla's definitely a bottom. Who cares? If it is, it is. If it's not, it's not. Trade it day by day. The one thing, we'll get to Tesla in a second. I kind of liked what I saw on Friday's action. But more important, guys, again, let's look at the MAC review and see where we are. On the QQQs, we talked about the two big levels going into this week throughout the last week's videos. You saw how many times it defended that 262 level. What was interesting about what the Bears didn't do more than the Bulls did, the Bears twice got below this 262 level. That was the first time getting Oli down to 261 and then bouncing back. Good job by the Bulls. Then Friday, when the December numbers came out, the first inclination was a pretty decent move to the downside. They traded down to 260. Just like they did for the whole week here defending 262, the Bulls reclaimed the 262. Remember that 267 level we were talking about? It was 267 to the upside, 262 to the downside. The Bulls' credit, they did reclaim the 267 and then traded right back to the top of the channel here. This is where it becomes very, very interesting for the Bulls, just like we talked about on the SPX3904. The Bulls, not necessarily, we're not near the 50-day moving average yet just because we've gotten so destroyed. Especially in the technology names, they have to go a little bit baby steps. A little bit more baby steps than the S&P got accomplished on Friday. You see the top of the channel here, it was 270-15, that's the December 3rd highs. Look at Friday's highs, roughly 270. You can see here, the Bulls, for this rally to extend, the Bulls need to get it back above this 270 level. Any close above 270, you see it? Any close above this 270 because they got rejected again from that 270 level on Friday. Any close above 270 then reclaims the 20-day supply. This is a big, thick line here. If the Bulls can reclaim that 270, then you have, again, just like the SPX, something meaningful. Maybe you're going to move back to the 272. Anything above 272, we're kind of looking down the line a little bit. Then you have an attack potential into the 50-day moving average. That exactly where you saw here last time, got rejected. The Bulls desperately need, again, once again, to kind of change and establish a whole narrative continuing, hopefully continuing their rally. The last thing the Bulls don't want to do is to lose back yesterday's rally, lose Friday's low the day into the 260s, and then again, you can see what your downside potential is all the way down to 254. A lot of the individual names that really, really acted really well on Friday, where they didn't act well throughout the week, even on up days, on dead cat bounce days. Microsoft, for example, if you've been watching the video, has gotten absolutely destroyed in the last three days. Nice little turnaround on everything else, but again, very, very small bounce. But you had a lot of the leaders not performing well until Friday's turnaround, right? Microsoft got absolutely destroyed. Amazon was really about to get hit. Amazon almost lost this big macro area right before the turnaround. Tesla has been getting absolutely manhandled throughout, not only through 2022. It obviously spilled over to 2023. They had more cuts in production talk on Friday. They got it all the way down to 101 before a really nice turnaround. The one thing what I did like was that the bulls right away swallowed up that number, the data that came out. It didn't linger for three, four, five hours. The majority of the names turned on a dime. All the stocks got really killed throughout the week, like the snows of the world. A lot of names. We don't have to go through a lot of names, but a lot of names got really, really destroyed. They snapped back within the first 40, 45 minutes or so and started a pretty meticulous, seamless rally throughout the day, which pretty much closed at the high. That's what the bulls have going for it. The question is, can they do it again? That's the most important part. As we've seen throughout this bear cycle that started in 2022, as many days you will have to the upside, we've shown and demonstrated over and over again, they will be two, three days of rallying. That's why I called the last bear market of 2022 probably the most orderly bear market I've ever seen and the most bullish bear market I've ever seen, because the bulls actually have two, three, sometimes four days of follow-through. Like, look at right here. One, two, three, four, five days of follow-through. One, two, three. Right? And so my point is, even though we are still macro below the 50-day moving average and always keep that in mind that at any time it could get pulled, obviously you want to watch those levels we just talked about to make sure they don't get rejected again. But the point is, you can still get a two, three, four-day rally. The question is, can the bulls do it? We'll see. Right? To be determined. But always, like I say every single video, nobody knows what's going to happen. I surely don't. I am prepared on both sides of the market and whatever confirms that's where we are going to try to focus. Again, I am not a bull. I'm definitely not a bear. I am an opportunist and we try to take advantage of data that is presented to us. So let's talk about some ideas. So let's start off with Tesla. By no means do I think Tesla is out of the woods. It did have a great, great turnaround with some phenomenal volume, right? Really, really phenomenal volume back to the upside. Listen, is it possible it gets one or two more days upside? If it does, you see the top of the channel here, right? I'm definitely watching. I mean, I trade Tesla every day, but I'm definitely, definitely watching it for potential upside move. Obviously, if it doesn't, then we'll watch the downside action. That goes without saying. But let's just on phase value, right? You see where it stopped here at the linear regression line and it stopped here on Friday. It's the same area, right? It's the same area. If Tesla could confirm it, it's a very big if, but if Tesla could confirm the 10-day moving average, why can't this thing then start filling in the gap, right? Then you have your next measure potential of the January 3rd high of 1880. And then ultimately, if this thing really started to getting some stretching is all the way up to this 12440s, right? So it's obviously some channels we definitely want to watch to the upside. Nothing goes straight down. Nothing goes straight up. But at the same time, we are wary that this whole macro area is still incredibly negative for Tesla. And I'm definitely watching the downside channels in case the upside gets stuffed. Look at Apple, right? Look at Apple. And again, this is where you're not going to get these obvious breakouts at the top of the channel, but you have to start looking at intermediate channels. You see this whole range here, right? Look at how many times it's gotten rejected off the same range here. If Apple could just get above this range here, you could see a $2, $3 move into the next supply of the 20-day moving average, right? Look at a name, for example, like in the video. You know, semis were definitely the ones that led the market in 2020 and 21. They got destroyed and killed the market in 2022. Friday, you can make an argument that they were definitely the strongest group within the NASDAQ 100. Again, same thing as same chart as Apple, same type of Tesla. If the Qs can reclaim, look at this channel here in the video, right? Again, nobody's saying this is the bottom. I don't care if this is the bottom. We're just trying to take it one day at a time, one trade at a time. So if we can get above this channel here, then you have a potential move to this 153, 155 level. Looks interesting as well. And to the downside, a name, you know, just want to give you guys just one name, one or two names, everything else will obviously watch. You see how Splunk held the bottom of the channel here several times and held the 50-day moving average? If the market turns, and this one obviously did not participate on Friday, and that's kind of what you want to see, anything when you're making your actionable trading list for the next day, you want to see what participates and closes at the top of the channel. We also want to see what didn't participate and close it to the bottom of the channel in case the market turns in the opposite direction. So let's keep an eye on Splunk, right? If this thing starts losing the bottom of the channel here, that will confirm the 50-day moving average. And the last time to confirm the 50-day moving average, right? You can see you had one, two, three, four, only five days of selling before reversal to the upside. So that's it, man. We are prepared for both sides of the market. We have our levels down-packed. We are prepared from both sides of the market. We're not trying to guess where the market's going to do and try to be smart and try to be intelligent. We're just trying to go where the price action is screaming at us off the top of the hill of where we believe it's going to go next. So stay prepared, guys. Stay blessed, everybody. Stay healthy. But the most important part, especially in the first three years, stay in business. Guys, God bless, and I will see you all on Monday. Take care.