 Okay, welcome everybody to the weekly charting analysis webinar with myself, Jasper Haller. It's going to last about half an hour. It's going to cover some of the major indices, effects and commodities that you can trade through CMC markets. We've just got the risk warning on the screen at the moment. We're going to skip through that and get into it. Any questions at all? Definitely just let me know through the chat box and I'm happy to do my best to answer. So we've got a couple of the big events before the end of the year out the way. We've got the ECB out the way. We've got OPEC out the way. Some pretty huge price moves resulting from those meetings. And the next one's the Fed. So as you can see, all prices down pretty steeply today. That's on the back of even steeper declines on Friday. That's after OPEC failed to announce even any kind of quota. So normally it's $30 million per day. And so they couldn't even agree on that. It couldn't even agree on expanding that. There were some initial reports that OPEC might produce, might rise it to $31.5. But the statement actually amounts no number. So it looks like Saudi Arabia and Iran are two kind of big opposing political parties, participants involved here. Just couldn't come to some agreement. And as a result, all prices are really pushing right down into these multi-year lows. And here I've got a fairly short-term chart on crude oil WTI, showing that we're breaking down through that support in around 39% and we're breaking down right now. So the downtrend's resuming, fell out to a longer-term chart. You can see right here, right near these multi-year lows. So obviously the speed of this decline has slowed up. But we're still putting in some lower lows here. And it looks like we're probably going to put in another one down here. And then this line at the bottom here, just around this 35 level, is where we come in from the low-putting in 2008. So getting a bit interesting here, below 35, that's when we start getting into the 20-type vicinity that a few have been forecasting. Looks like that generally could happen, because OPEC is producing as much as it can, Russia is producing as much as it can, and US Shale, they're producing as and when it makes economic sense according to the price. Now that can't go on forever, particularly on the US side, because there's been a pattern of US Shale coming back online when prices bounce a bit, but the price is right down right now. So we're going to start seeing that, well, we've already seen it, that the number of US rigs is going to decline and inventories are going to start falling by the wayside too as those number of rigs come offline. So that's going to eventually support the price, but it's not happening at the moment. Then an excess supply situation going on at the moment. Obviously, the other big event was the ECB, so let's pull up the main chart involved there. Just trying to look at some of the short-term levels that could cap this retracement that we're seeing in the year at the moment, but obviously this is a 30-minute chart, but it's still a fairly epic move that we saw during the ECB, and you can see from the daily chart, pretty huge reversal engulfed the previous two weeks worth of price action, almost three weeks, if we've got up here. And we're back in and around the 110 handle. We're pulling back now, so as we currently stand, we're right in that 108-type vicinity, which is this previous peak here is a bit below, but just on a short-term basis, you can see on that 30-minute chart, she's using where the price had paused during this incline to try and make some assistance, where there's also a bit of a potentially nothing really to show us on the downside. We can connect the lows a bit. It's not a very good channel, but you can connect the lows in here quite well, and that would take us down to this line. If we were using the highs, then a new low would probably come in down at this price peak here, where we reversed a little bit going into the press conference. So that's some levels to look out for, but I think it would be hard to see a move this size just completely erased without pushing higher a bit. My assumption here is that this is basically a change of short-term trend. We were grinding, grinding, grinding lower, and now we've rapidly pushed higher, and I think we're going to eventually find some level on which people are willing to jump on board and go long again, and maybe even more to the point, not willing to go short again through these lows given the size of the reaction we had higher. So these levels to be considered, this was a cap that we blew through quite easily here. So if these levels give way, we're down to here, and obviously we're at the low, and then just based on that daily chart, you could see that we had this peak in here just below 107. I don't think that's going to be too instrumental, but as I see it, we're still, if you pull out based on this chart, we basically kind of undone a bit of this short-term trend that was taking place here, and we've come off before reaching new lows, so to me it's more like we've turned into a medium-term sideways market and a short-term uptrend, and now we're retracing within that uptrend is how I'm perceiving it. There's lots of side issues around the ECB. I think generally the way we've got to look at it here is we've got to listen out for the ECB members, and a lot of them are going to be speaking this week. I mentioned in my morning note the highlights as I see it in terms of who's speaking. There's quite a few, but probably three important ones in terms of really potentially market-moving. But really I'd be surprised if they hint at additional stimulus having just taken action. Obviously the idea here is that they thought what was done was enough and I would imagine that they want to see this play out in the economy first before starting to suggest that more needs to be done. That said, if inflation does remain well below target in around the 0% mark, then there's always going to be this kind of background wondering if and when they're going to do more. The market's going to start pushing for them to increase stimulus at some point in time if that inflation remains low. There's a good chance that it won't because we're getting to the point now where we're almost a year past the big fall in the oil price. Obviously oil's still at those low levels, but that sort of yearly change which we use to judge inflation year over year, that oil price change is going to start coming out to the market around kind of March time. So we actually could see the year over year numbers start to reflect a more of a kind of levelling out and then starting to rise in sort of just the non-core benchmark inflation rate. So then that would suggest that actually the ECB isn't going to do any more or don't need to do more. So that's got implications for the euro. There's still a big divergence between the euro in the U.S. and even the euro in the U.K. Worth putting up the euro pound chart because we saw a big push high there. Potentially a inverse head and shoulder pattern setting up here is not perfect. The patterns never are. The head is only slightly deeper than the left and right shoulder. From that perspective you could almost call it a triple bottom but potentially a big basing pattern here. And so then we'd look for the neckline. The most extreme one would probably just be up at those peaks here around 75. So having failed to drop through the 70 round number on three major occasions, if we were to push above 75, that could suggest that we're pushing all the way back up to 80. Obviously there's still big policy divergence between the U.K. and the eurozone. We're still looking to raise rates in the U.K. We've got the Bank of England later this week. They are expected to keep rates on hold and if they're going to continue the language from the inflation hearings then it's going to be fairly dovish and that could push expectations for a rate rise in the U.K. out to 2017. And so then given a slight kind of change in circumstance, slightly less easing than expected from the EZB, even more dovish than expected from the Bank of England could see this rate push back up to the 75 level again. Because that size of the difference between the two countries in divert... I mean, the extent of the divergence has come in a bit if the two central banks ease away from the extremes that we thought. Obviously the other impact from the EZB last week was on equities, for example being the Germany 30. You can see this take place in other markets. Well, this is a weekly chart that's looking a bit crowded, but just sort of going to show that we're still... It's difficult to see, basically we took out this high here, which is where we still got this potential double bottom pattern in. But we haven't really cleared out the next peak yet, but potentially this might be a peak that we can use to say that we've formed a higher high. Haven't really... Yeah, here we formed a higher low. So kind of still while above the weekly number and the 15th low, still kind of technically within an uptrend. So if we can hold above there, might be all right in the Germany 30, but that is a pretty large bearish and golfing candlestick on this weekly chart. Looks even more extreme on the daily chart. And so a really aggressive sell-off has failed to take place because this previous low has not acted as, you know, was support broke, didn't turn into resistance, we pushed through it. So the next level I'll be eyeing is, well, to some extent, the 200-day moving average is not so reliable, but also just this peak from over here on November 20th are some potential areas of resistance to see this trend roll over. But as I mentioned in the chart forum here, what we're seeing is that we've made a higher high and then we've made a lower low. So that's basically telling us no trend. So what I wouldn't be surprised to see is us actually push up towards the top near this high somewhere, maybe even push through it and then roll over or maybe just not quite get to it and roll over and just turn into more of a sideways market again. Kind of reminiscent of the kind of thing taking place here. Bit sideways perhaps until a few days before or after the Fed meeting, which of course takes place in just over a week on the 15th and 16th of December. The other thing to look at is similar to what we did with the Euro and just zoom in on the lower timeframes to find some potential levels. Here, you know, this is that previous high that I've used. This is actually the kind of lower the day on the second, so the Wednesday I believe that would also potentially be some area. You can also pull up some Fibonacci levels to see if they correspond. But as I mentioned, these would be the areas to look for some sort of reversal for a continuation of the trend lower, but I don't actually think that that's going to happen right now. I don't think we're going to see some massive sell-off off the back of that decline in the Germany 30. I suppose what I'm facing a lot of that off is just the fact that we pushed through this previous low and that we, even the very next day, we couldn't push any lower. So if we just stick them with equities for now, let's have a look at the UK 100. Here, I pulled up a short-term chart again as well. Again, looking for potential areas where this rapid downtrend that we saw on Thursday could begin to roll over again. So, you know, rapid downtrend retracement. We've fallen off a bit away from this 31.2, 38.2 percent Fibonacci level. Kind of corresponds a bit with this low over here and this hot peak over there. More about the Fib level. Then we'll move back up into the 50, which I think we probably could get towards. And then we've got a couple of days where we saw quite sharp reversals that could have a slight vacuum in volume in around those levels and sea prices drop off again. So, a similar kind of idea where we've had that extreme move down. We're looking for cheaper areas to sell into it on signs of reversal. But again, you know, we basically made a high-high. Now we've made a low-low. So it's basically speaking to us of no trend. And also just the fact that it was this, these series of peaks up here that caused us to roll over in the first place kind of tells us that we're not going anywhere higher. And we've kind of paused at this low here. I suspect we could maybe get down to the 6,000, 6,7 level again. So that would be, you know, if you were selling from one of these retracement levels, then your first target would just be the third low. But if you were feeling more bearish, then you would start targeting the 6,100 level just to sort of show that the market's in complete chop-up and down here basically between 6,100 and 6,500. Over to US markets. You're probably going to notice a bit of a theme here. US markets are definitely stronger than that. And you're obviously slightly more indirect beneficiaries of risk-on-mode in markets that quantitative easing brings about. So you can see here that this was Thursday's leg lower, not as extreme as we saw in the Germany 30 or even the UK 100. And on Friday we had those non-farm payrolls results. It was a pretty good number, basically in line with expectations, slightly weaker than was seen in October. But November's data was nonetheless in line with expectations. Over 200,000 jobs created, sometimes a wage growth still. Unemployment rates stayed at 5%. So basically the overall message was that not enough to derail the Fed hiking rates. So in FYI in terms of the Fed, we've got retail sales on Friday and then we've got inflation data next week. They're basically the last two hurdles for the Fed to have to jump over, for the data to jump over for the Fed to decide on and hike them rates. At the moment, looking at Fed funds features, you hear this burn around with percentages doesn't always necessarily mean a lot, but there's basically an 80% bet that the Fed's going to hike according to Fed fund features at the moment in December. So looking pretty odds on, but should markets collapse? We've got Chinese data this week. That was the previous cause of the big August collapse. In fact, the very data that caused the collapse we have reported tomorrow. That's the Chinese trade data. So watch out for that. That comes out early morning tomorrow. So that may impact the open of European markets tomorrow. That could be a big one. We also have Chinese inflation data on Wednesday. That's probably not going to show anything too cataclysmic. And then we have retail sales and industrial production data on Saturday, which could set us up interestingly for Monday next week, which is obviously the week of the Fed meeting. For the moment, I've been talking about this in the chart form for a while, is toying with a double top here, but just sort of based on a sort of 200-day moving average and the sort of general trend, assuming that it's going to be more of a consolidation topside breakout. But there's obviously significant resistance to the topside. This peak from back in July, but then the all-time highs from early in the year, May and Feb. Is it May? Yeah. You'll notice definitely a bit of bearish divergence taking place here. The bearish divergence can turn to a bit of a potential setup if you just get a break through that declining trend line there on the RSI. That kind of nullifies the divergence for me and could see us pushing nicely higher. Coming into the last 10 minutes of the webinar here, we've covered a few currencies while just talking about the ECB. We've covered some of the major indices. Happy to talk about others if need be, but if not, I'm going to switch over to crude commodities. Now, this was the other interesting move. This was not on the ECB. This was on the jobs day. This was on Friday. So as in the 4th of December is when we saw this massive push higher in gold, which is interesting because the data was pretty solid, indicates that, as I mentioned, it basically confirms the idea of the Fed set to a hike in December. Typically, the assumed reason for the sell-off in gold is that you don't want to be holding a non-interest-bearing asset when interest rates are rising. You want to be there to take advantage of those rising interest rates and have your money in bank accounts or whatever the case may be. But on that strong US data, gold actually rallied and rallied pretty massively, broke this declining trend line. So obviously this has been a pretty huge sell-off and the momentum's just slowed heading into this long-term trend line here. We've got a bullish engulfing candlestick in and around the bottom of this line. And I think obviously this kind of trend is generally down. I think the better possibilities are more along the top trend line here. When you see top reversals, a generally higher probability in this scenario than at the bottom. But nonetheless, this is a couple of factors supporting it here. A strong bullish engulfing candlestick on a weekly chart, which obviously has more bearing than on the lower-time frames, almost took out three weeks, which adds strength, didn't quite do it. But to me, the possibility of a reversal here, and again, we're back into that same scenario, but okay, can we pick out some points on the retracement? I actually think if we are going to push higher, the retracement's not going to be too large in gold. That's quite characteristic, is that it sees pretty shallow retracement. So even from here, where we're getting a bit of a bounce at the moment, just off these previous peaks, that could be as shallow as we get for another leg higher. Potentially, though, down to here, we've got a kind of double previous resistance, which could then act as support on a drop-down. I suspect if we even get that low, then we'll probably dive all the way down. And we'll trace a good amount in the move, perhaps. And then still, I think, still the bias will be to the topside then. You've got to be aware here that you're kind of fighting the kind of longer-term trend, but you've seen signs of a reversal of that trend. More so here in gold, than I would argue in equities. Obviously turning from a sort of bull to bearish reversal. There I've characterized them more in ranges. Here I think there's a better chance of a turn to an uptrend here, just off the extent of this downtrend. Silver in a similar ballpark to gold. We're going to win a nice few false breaks here. If you've been paying attention to the daily chart and not just your intraday charts, you would have seen that none of these breakouts were confirmed with a lower close. And on the sort of what was at fourth time lucky, we just couldn't push lower. And so we just, the shorts gave up and we saw a massive capitulation drive to the upside. And this has engulfed all these previous days here with just that one big move. So chance of a retracement, but I suspect it, again, I think it's going to be a small one. I would say maybe, I haven't drawn it in here, but kind of looking at that, is that what kind of, if you are considering there's a horizontal resistance rather than the kind of declining resistance line that I have here, then I think that's probably the most, it's based in and around this low here. So if you want to capture the move for definite, you're going to long fairly shortly, but if you're looking for a slightly better value, risking not capturing the move because it never gets there, then back towards the kind of 1440 dark vicinity, I think. We've already had a bit of a look at WGI. We can have a quick look at Brent now, maybe. Here you can kind of see that we're basically in a kind of sideways motion at the moment. We tried to push off the low here, didn't get very far, basically ran into the previous lows here, rolled over again before even getting there. It's looking pretty weak. You know, I would not, probably this, you know, whereas gold, we're looking at a kind of reverse of a trend to the top side. I don't think that's happening with oil. My default assumption is that we're breaking through this low from obvious and it went lower. And then you have to look quite far out to start catching some kind of support. The main one, again, just like we had drawn in the WGI chart, is the 2008 low. So I had mentioned the Bank of England this week. Before, we do actually have Mark Carney speaking today. Governor of the Bank of England speaks at 3 p.m. today, GMT. We do have UK manufacturing industrial production data tomorrow. But that's all sort of leading into the BOE rate decision on Thursday. So, you know, basically, I think the way I tend to play this in terms of data releases before the policy decision is that you just look, you know, you pay attention to data, make a note of it, and then, you know, once the BOE rate decision is out of the way, then you can start to see that data playing out in the price. So if we see some weak data, for example, maybe the pound doesn't sell off too heavily because you don't know quite what the Bank of England is going to, how they're going to position. So you hold fire. And then, you know, once the Bank of England is out of the way, if there's nothing too much of a change, which I don't think anyone really expects it to be, probably just still fairly dovish, then you can kind of get back on board and, you know, maybe if there was weak data, for example, start selling a pound. But technically, we're in this, the top trend line is not perfect by any means. The bottom trend line is a bit better. But we're in a sort of declining channel now. And we've seen a strong bullish reversal, candlestick pattern, with bullish divergence as well using the RSI, suggesting there's some scope for a bit of a bounce back towards the top channel line. And the 200-day, and that peak from November 19th, and the declining channel are all sort of in that same sort of vicinity. So there's a good chance that we push up to that 153-type side area. Got to be aware that we blow the 200-day, so any reversal candlestick patterns, perhaps error on the side of caution. But, you know, regular candles, you know, then 53 looked like a solid area. We'll quickly touch on Dolly Yen. Oh, actually, no, we'll look at Dolly's Swiss, because the other interesting event this week is the Swiss National Bank. They are their rate meeting this week. And a lot of what they were going to do, I think, rested on what the ECB did. And so we had, in the base of the ECB, sort of failure to really ramp up the stimulus has obviously resulted in the Euro spiking. And so there hasn't been a big sell-off in Euro Swiss. I've put up Dollar Swiss here. Probably the slightly better one for trading, Euro Swiss is a bit complicated after the giving up the peg. But you can see, you know, last week, yeah, we closed lower but barely, still inside the kind of recent range. And so, you know, basically, we're not looking at a situation where this Swiss bank is about to rally massively. And because the Euro is weakening so much, actually, the Euro's gained value, so the Swiss ranks devaluing slightly. So that takes the pressure off the Swiss National Bank doing anything. I think there's a possibility they maybe will just kind of cut their rates maybe to match the ECB, just that there's a consistent differential. So the ECB cut by 10 basis points, maybe the Swiss National Bank will do the same. I'm not really sure to what benefit they would have in really going aggressive and cutting by, say, 25 basis points. Because they just didn't need this point. The ECB's kind of done the work for them. So as I mentioned, this chart, bit choppy, hard to trade. But essentially look at that Dollar Yen chart. That Dollar Swiss chart. You're in an uptrend, but we've had a retracement. Look for the opportunities there. Just coming off this peak. Okay, my voice is giving way, so I'm going to call it a day there. I hope that was useful. Good luck with trading this week. Jasper Law's on the out.