 Let's get over to our mammoth to Tim or as we do every Tuesday and Thursday You can reach Tim folks every trading day is a great newsletter at odd or d dash oracle calm That's odd dash oracle calm Tim or what a market. How you doing? I'm doing great man yourself Well, good good. I got a couple of charts. We're kind of walk through it. Everybody's kind of worried about the gold market, so we actually going to take a Pretty big view on it. So, okay, that was weeks when you start chart one, okay, we showed this a number of times The top window is the RSI for the bullish percent index For the goldmires slash gdx ratio, right and every time the RSI of That ratio got below 30 and closed above 30 a majority of the time the bottom was then that just happened here probably in September Probably early September don't have the exact date But anyhow, all the blue lines there across the chart shows the time that signal was generated So let's look at the bigger chart of that same chart. This chart goes back to Chart number two. Okay goes back all the way back to 2008 about mid 2008. Yes, and that's kind of a rare signal But the blue line should hang out that type of signal where they are is I drop below 30 and close above 30 And I took it all the way back to 2008 and all the blue lines there Horizontal blue lines are times that signal was generated and there's which was 18 times and there's two red Lines there that the signal failed. So if you do that number You work out 80% or 89% success rate. Yeah, pretty good. Yeah. Yeah, so the odds of this making a low And this vicinity because this doesn't actually pick up the exact low But that's pick up the vicinity of a low is 89% so you really Don't really want to be bearish here Again, the other two times was coming off the 2011 major top So they didn't give a signal then 2016 that was going off of a ballistic Upward rally. I remember that rally just went right through the ceiling right then it failed but since then 2016 all those signals have been successful. So I flipped To a little another chart here and show you show where we are on the short-term basis. Is that the third John? Yeah Yeah, the third chart. Okay, cool. And The bottom window is the six to a sixty-two day average of the up-down volume percent for GDX So it measures the up-down volume of all the stocks in GDX, which is I think around 30 or 32 of them And so when it gets above zero, that's the blue shaded area is when those rallies start and sometimes they kind of hover around if you look at 2019 Right smack that January high it kind of fumbled around that zero line before the rally actually got I got going and It's kind of common But once it gets around zero it usually stays there usually doesn't go up and eject and go back down they usually hovers around that zero line was what we've kind of been doing and We got above that zero line last week now. We're a little bit below it We're pox about minus two right now and I think got up about plus five last week So we're hanging around that zero line and this is a 62-day average. So it's like three months three months. Yeah So and also I want to point out this chart When it gets down below minus 20 which it did back in July of 2000 or maybe September of 2021 that down below minus 20 again and Looks like about July 2022 and again in July to 2023 the market flip sideways for several months And 2021 when it's sideways approximately six months in 2022 when sideways for four months Currently, we've been going sideways for about three months. So in my opinion, we're still looking at a lower here I think the market Because it's down so hard is affecting pretty much all the markets. So I don't think this is a big decline I still think probably in a basing period and there's a good chance of a possible base for maybe another month and be similar to The previous times when this indicator hit below minus 20 you flip sideways several months And maybe that's what's going on here, but I don't think the market's set up now for decline from here Yeah, if we stay down here for another month and the gold market no one's ever going to buy any stocks And that's exactly what you need for a market to go higher, right? Right, you really you really want you know sentiment and everything really be through the floor You want people actually hate the word gold stock. You're certainly not making it easy. That's right They're not making it easy right now. I can tell you you know, it's interesting though Tim They are actually they are stronger than the gold contract still I mean, you know, it's interesting a few of these are actually pretty strong, you know Well, I mean they've they're back down, but you know, if you look at like an eco eagle It's like okay, man. It's back down, but not much man You know, so there's a few of them even new months, you know There's a few that just haven't backed down which is pretty positive, you know, so I think the major bottom again back to this chart here I had some other charts that gave it the a long-term buy signal last July and people which is July 2022 yeah, and if you look where we are Last July compared where we are right now to me. This is just a sideways Consolidation right that's been going on since April right and I think that's all it is I don't think we're gonna go down all the way, you know, I'm thinking still in general I think we're gonna move sideways around this, you know 28 30 area to my 27 30 area And I think that's pretty much it so yeah, see if you look at this I'm gonna put this up for the, you know listeners right now So this is pretty intense because what does happen you got to remember folks, okay? That you know Tim and I You know both big, you know white cough people also and this deal the longer that you build a cause here The bottom line the higher you can go and you know, it's interesting Tim is that, you know I get this on a monthly right now, right going all the way back to 2022 and On the monthly check this out. This is pretty intense man actually on the monthly I won't take this month, but well even if I did, you know, we went up on that September with 182 million shares in the GDX and Yeah, it's going down right now at 29 million Yeah, that that bar is huge man the bar that it's going into which is that November bar of 2021 You know, that's when the GDX went from that 24 to 28 and then that basically throw it into consolidation So there's no doubt that's going to be intriguing. So yeah and volume is basically like gas or not Yeah, it's like the energy right or gas for a car, right? And so if you get volume going up and adversely less volume going down the bigger trend is up Right, so I don't have a volume chart here, but I do have up and down volume Which will kind of works in a similar way. It's a little bit different way to look at volume But it works pretty well So the major is basically the up on compared to the down volume that bottom chart and on yes on chart three The bottom window on chart three images of the up line compared to the down point So if you notice, you know, we had a workshop move Minus 20 and that's pretty much the Josh move to downside. So stay right there folks Stay there Tim and I come right back and get hold of Tim folks at odd or ID dash oracle calm Tim and I come right back Welcome back folks Tim or Tom or brown. We do appreciate your growling and prowling when it's out here Okay, Tim. We would like to go next Yes, it's cool to number chart four. Okay This is that seven indicator and the bottom window is the cboe Equity put call ratio reading with the 21 day average The next higher window from the bottom the second window up from the bottom is the cboe equity put call ratio readings with a five day average And chart goes back to about Of mid 2014 and the red lines or the pink areas show the times when this ratio is above Uh, well a certain level actually a bullish level. So this is kind of a It measures how many puts to calls there is and others and up markets People buy more calls and puts and down markets people buy more puts and calls So this measures a five day and a 21 day average. So when it gets up Into bullish territory, which we're out right now. We actually have been for about the last Uh several weeks is usually getting close to a low This really doesn't pick out the bottom per day Or bottom The day of the bottom or anything like that it gets you in the vicinity of a low. Okay, and so so And it could be a little off but in general, it's usually pretty good when everybody has hits the sell button These indicators jump up And gives you a good clue that Uh bottoms coming up. So and we're in that bullish range right now on a three week And actually on a on a one week time frame So, uh It actually has a great history. So uh, in my opinion, this is not a bear market We're probably going into a low Uh, you know, could it be another week or two maybe But we're we're banged according to the book called ratio weeks is kind of a seminary here We're probably getting close. So now it's flipped to on a sugarcane basis to flip to five. Okay number five There we go And this is my kind of bread and butter Of panic because it works pretty well the trend Uh is actually major to see Uh advanced decline and also measures up down volume and it puts it in all in one number Uh, when the number is one everything's kind of neutral There's there's just as much up volume is down volume And it's just as much as advanced as there is decline. So it doesn't really say much But when that indicator gets above one point or around 1.2 and higher The volume's starting to hit the declining stocks And that's when that number jumps up. So it measures kind of the selling against declining stocks And it goes the other way too. It measures also when it gets down below 0.8 It tells you that uh most buying is going on on the upstock everyone's buying the same stocks. Yeah, right, right, right Yeah, so it kind of so it's a good indicator Uh to look when you have the the bottom window is a five day average of the Arms index or trend index next to one up is the 10 day the 10 days usually the better one That's two weeks of data And the peak areas there show the times When this indicator got in bullish territory and uh So basically all you know we went over this chart before but From may of 2022 until basically april of 2023 the market built a base And if you can see which is that kind of side blue area I kind of boxed in blue there. Yes And it was 365 to 390 with sport because that's where the trend On a five day and a 21 day We're reaching panic levels. So that's building a base panic happens at bottoms. That's where that base was So now we flip over to the current time frame And neither the five day or the 10 day have reached bullish uh readings yet The 10 day needs to get up to around 1.2 and the five day needs to get up around 1.5 And so Ideally what we want the market to do right now to get those two Five and 10 day trends up around into the bullish territory really showing panic You need kind of a washout move in the market. You went to trend Preferably close up around two or three which would be ideal Now tim do you do you going into a washout move tim do you use the use a closing trend or using the interday high trend? No, you'd use the clothes clothes. Okay, which makes a huge difference because like, you know yesterday He had a 0.66 So that kills everything right it's interesting and yeah kills everything Yeah, and on the clothes it closed at 0.73. Yeah, right There's a lot of bomb pickers there. I evidently and we had a you know today It would happen here folks is that today you had a high of 1.45 But yet you're only at 1.09 right now. So yeah, that's they're buying too quick Interesting that they're buying too quick. Yeah, so you really want, you know When the big what I call the puke happens those trends just explode right and when those trends explode, you know Actually explosion is probably not a one-day base. They anything above two You know, they're they're hitting a sell button everybody you hear it on news And that's when you you look because you're you're days or not days You're probably hours away from below another hours could be a day or two It's not like a month or two or a week or two You're counting the days that bomb's going to occur. So once you start seeing rings, you know preferably up around two even three You know, you're looking a day or two away probably for a meaningful low and that's it gets pretty good Uh picked out bottoms a day of the bottoms them on this before Nice, you know, but they're tough Yeah, no, there's no there's no There's no private audience there and everybody's kind of laughing at you Right. No, I can see that. Yeah, because it's like what's going to make it turn around I mean everything's going down You know the the vixx has quite a jump out here today to tim the tim the vixx up 253 we traded in 1943 So, I mean the last time, you know and one week it's already gone from what, uh Yeah, it's gone from 12 57 Yeah, no 13 57 That was yeah, it's kind of unusual, you know everything Uh kind of acts different and kind of different markets, you know, that's been stayed low even on That top we had in august to kind of just stay low, which is kind of rare But now we're getting the trend the trend finally, you know approaching 20 and higher And so that's helping too. He gets in the 20s and even Very seldom gets to 30, but it it does gets 30 every once a while on a kind of a wash out low So this is kind of lining up my bet Is the the bottom I think is going to be this week. Okay You know prove me wrong, you know and but there is a You know, well today's Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, you know, I'm thinking Thursday or Friday, you know You know the market may tip to rally Maybe tomorrow try for a bounce and if it doesn't I bet we get a wash out move going into this weekend So we'll see no you can think I can see that See enough of these when they stop momentum to the downside they usually doesn't quit Right till you get real climatic, right, right. There's no just yeah, you know, you had That the spies had broken its swing point, you know, you know the middle of last week Now the cues only broke the swing point today And the cues have quite a way to go to where, you know, like if we're talking about where they all broke out from You know what I mean? So the spies almost there the spies only like, uh, you know Another six points away from, you know the 420 418 area, you know, I mean where Where the cues, you know is playing catch up here. So there's no doubt it's going to get interesting here, man Yeah, I thought we you know, I didn't actually think we'd get down we you talked about this too I thought well, maybe we'll find support around this 430 area But you know the real sports down around that 420 Yeah, and when these when the market gets to support area, that's usually where all the panic really occurs So we're a little bit away from it, but I bet we hit it. I bet that trend until it explodes Well, listen tim, it's always a pleasure Look forward to having you on thursday and don't forget folks. You get hold of tim has a great newsletter at odd or d dash oracle dot com Have a great one tim. Have a safe one