 Welcome traders to this week's live market and trade analysis session with me, Patrick Munley. Before we get going today, I just want to jump in and start off by checking in with the risk disclaimer. Most importantly for today's conversation, the views and opinions expressed by me are solely mine. They're not indicative or representative of those held by Tickmail in the UK or Tickmail Europe Limited. So for those of you who are here for the first time, a brief introduction to myself. After I graduated from university, I joined a city PLC consulting firm. I left with some colleagues and went on to successfully co-found and exit a consulting startup focused on C-suite executive search for technology businesses. Essentially, I had a front row seat, the dot-com bubble, witnessing people make and lose a fortune in the markets, sometimes quite literally overnight. I decided to explore my curiosity for markets with some capsules playing with and some time on my hands. I started day trading the S&P 500, but probably more appropriately at that stage, day gambling. After some early beginners' luck, I racked up some pretty solid gains. However, as is often the case, my beginners' luck went out and as the market phase began to change, I averaged down, giving back all my gains and ultimately experiencing a significant six-figure hit to my capital. Say this was a gut-wrenching and sobering experience is an understatement, so I really had to stand back and figure out that it was feasible for me to make a living from the markets. So I decided to get serious about trading and I sought out a mentor with an excellent trading track record. Working with my mentor for a period of 18 months, there was a time during which I had to not just my technical gain, in terms of researching, developing, extensively back and forward testing, strategies that crucially suited my personality, all of which were underpinned by a rigorous risk management approach. But most importantly, during the period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental career. And probably most importantly of all, I made the watershed shift from being a highly goal-orientated individual focused on financial gains to becoming purely process-oriented. So what does that actually mean? Well, it means I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy, oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. But once you become process-orientated and you have a professional trading mindset and you understand the true nature of trading being a numbers game in which you are simply playing the probabilities, you lose the emotional investment that hellish emotional rollercoaster are living and dying by the outcomes of individual trades. So I no longer concern with the outcome of an individual trade or even a small string of trade. My focus on the next 100 trades, because I know if I focus on excellence and execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi-strategy approach has delivered profitable value returns since 2008 to 2013. I've also been managing investor capital through a managed account service, again, delivering positive annual returns. I'm currently responsible for managing a multimillion dollar portfolio. Since 2010, I've mentored hundreds of private traders of all experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to reap consistent returns from the markets. In addition to my fund management and mentoring, I am a resident market expert exclusively providing market and trade analysis to Ticknell clients. I provide an in-depth daily market outlook, breaking down fundamental and technical drivers for the day ahead. I also provide daily technical trade setup videos for about three to five markets that I'm actively tracking. I share those through the Ticknell Trading View account. I've actually posted the Trading View link in the chat there for those who want to follow along with my daily trade setup. I also run Ticknell's E-mini strategy Facebook group where I post a daily trade plan outlining my pre-market trading plan for the cash trading session ahead. I give my bias for the day and specific action areas where I'm looking to engage the market. These pre-market plans have now delivered over 4,000 points of profit since we launched in April 21. Second Ticknell strategy group I run is for traders who really want to take their trade into the next level. The Ticknell Futures Telegram Trading Group is a real-time environment where on a daily basis I share in-depth insights, analysis and real-time trades. I also provide live commentary during the opening hour of the cash trading session in New York where traders can essentially see in real-time how I dissect the markets and identify asymmetric trading opportunities. These sessions act as a platform helping traders to develop a professional consistent approach to navigating the markets and those mental mind games that must be mastered to make it as a profitable market operator. OK, so that gives you a flavor of where I'm coming from. Just before we continue, I've actually posted the link for the Facebook group into the chat there. All you have to do is request access and you get access to my daily trading plan and some additional institutional research that I share with the group as well that's really useful to see how the bigger players in the market are setting up and positioned. Before we jump into the... Please provide daily trade link. You should be able to see that in the chat now. Can you see that? There's a link for the Trading View account and for the Facebook group there. So hopefully that's answered your question, KA. As I say, we are going to jump into the charts now and I've got a bunch of charts here that I'm actually tracking where I can see setups are developing to provide digital trading opportunities in the coming sessions. If you have any questions, just drop those into the chat box. You can't see the link. Can everyone else see the links that I posted in the chat box there for the Facebook group? Let's repost them in this room. You should be able to see the links now. Great, good stuff. OK, so as I was saying, I'm going to run through a bunch of charts where I'm actually tracking setups. If you have a question, just drop it into the chat box or the Q&A box at the end of the session, I'll come back and answer any questions you have. Equally, if there's a chart you want me to say to look at, I don't cover in my deck here, then you can just type that instrument into the chat or the Q&A with the time frame you'd like me to take a look at and I'll do my best to give you a view on that market. So we are, as always, going to start with the S&P 500. In a pretty volatile week as the price action really driven by the CPI release on Tuesday, coming in rather than expected and so bringing the Fed back into play really. So we've got that big sell-off on Tuesday. We're now consolidating just about this internal trend line. I'm looking for any three-way corrective moves on the intraday time frames to test. 4010 is the level I'm watching. From there, I'm looking for bearish reversal patterns to engage on the short side, looking for a breakdown to test this weekly trend line support. Now, that's going to be a key test. That's weekly trend line now comes in at 3840. If we hold there, then there's still the chance that we trade a three-way corrective move, a bigger correction, back up into the 4500 area. But if we fail to hold that trend line and break down, then I'll be looking for a retest of the June lows back into these 3640s and then what we'll be looking for will be any retest about weekly trend line from below. If we can't get back above that and it then starts to act as resistance and the downside objective is towards the 3180s, the 61.8% retracement of the post-pandemic decline and we have an equality objective versus the swing high here at the 43.60s, 31.70s. So that's the target zone from there and anticipate to see at least a more meaningful corrective move, if not a tradeable low. So it's really going to see how we play, how price action plays out at this week in trend line. At this stage, I'm not encouraged on the long side until we break out of this internal channel and take out the high volume note here, 41.30s. So for me at the moment, the bias is to the downside as we are currently set up. Moving to the NASDAQ, similar story really. We've got what looks to me like a bear flag pattern here and we are testing the support. So whilst the high volume note, 12,300 area acts as resistance, looking for a breakdown through the bear flag to test initially the equality objective and projected a descending trend line support, 11,200 into these prior lows. Then as this trend channel resistance and the underside of the bear flag acts again as resistance on any corrective moves back into that 12,200 area, we're looking for an extension to the downside to target 10,400. 10,500 is the 61.8% of the treatment similar to that S&P move to the downside is what we're looking at for the NASDAQ there. The Dow Jones using the e-mini futures contract. Again, similar setup here on the daily timeframe. Any pullbacks that now find resistance at this high volume area in the daily timeframe, 31,830. We're looking for a test of this trend line support to ultimately give way and certainly think about a retest of the prior, the June lows, 29,600 and then as this trend line acts as resistance, we have a downside objective at 27,100. We're not going to go there in a straight line certainly, but it is setting up at the moment if we take out this weekly trend line support that we ultimately get a test down as this area. Now again, something else to factor with these indexes is that historically we have in down years for the S&P 500 and certainly for the S&P 500 and we think of that as the leading benchmark. It would be very unusual that we make a tradeable low, at least a tradeable low before August. So what does that mean? Well, the implications of that are that and this is going back to the 1940s. This isn't just going back over the past 10 years or 20 years. This is going back to over the past 70 years and so the implications of that are that this June low is vulnerable and statistically speaking, it would be an anomaly for us at least not to retest the June low if not taken out. So just something to keep in mind as we head into the remainder of September and again statistically September is the weakest month for equity indexes. That's another factor that could be weighing here on these markets and then once we get through September and again just thinking in terms of statistics and market seasonality, we are heading into the midterm elections. Now the midterm elections are in November and it would not be beyond the realms of possibility that we see a down draft into September, the beginning of October and then suddenly the markets start to pick up obviously the incumbent party would like to retain control of the Congress and the Senate and to do that one of the key voting metrics for voters in the US is how their 401k plans are looking. Obviously at the moment they're not looking great as most of them are index linked and so like I say it wouldn't be beyond the realms of possibility that we suddenly see an uptick heading into those midterm elections as the incumbent party looked to retain control and one of the factors in that will be how the markets are looking. So just something to keep in mind, so September into the early October, I'm anticipating weakness then as we head into those midterms it would not be surprising to see a bounce in terms of equity markets. So moving to the DAX. The DAX, I'm still looking for a potential roll over here versus the swing high we have at 14,900 area. We have a downside of quality objective 11,150. So any breakthrough, the prior lows 12,360, I will certainly be looking to engage on the short side targeting a test of that 11,150. Now you can do that in the cash market, the futures market or you can do it via options and currently Longson puts there heading into October for that 11,150 test. Moving to the Nikai. You're going to notice this setup that I'm tracking in the Nikai when we look at the ends in a bit we have a similar scenario. So what I'm looking for in terms of the Nikai is any pullbacks now into this ascending trend line support 26,560. I'm going to give one more push to the upside to complete this ending diagonal scenario 29,615. From there I'm watching for bearish reversal patterns with a downside of quality objective if that does prove to be our swing high 29,600 area into the weekly high volume mode and the equality objective is 23,300. Now keep that in mind when we move on to the ends. I'm just going to now start with the FX pairs and we're going to look at the dollar index first of all. I had short positions running in the dollar index as of last week from that 110,30 area and I had a couple of positions running. We got taken out obviously on the big spike up managed to lock in 200, 200 pips of profit there and now this pattern that we've got here is interesting because from a technical perspective this big outside reversal and this consolidation pattern here in the upper end of that candle, historically I would this is a strong bullish setup for me and I've been looking so I've got an order waiting at 109,96 to buy the dollar index as long as we continue to hold in this upper range. If today we roll over then I'll count that order and I'll be anticipating that we are going to play a three-way corrective move down into the 106,80s as the first quarter call here but if we can get a reversal we've got retail sales coming out today. If we get a reversal and we take out that 109,97 I'm going to be engaged on the long side and I'm going to be thinking about a move at least back into retest these highs 110,75 and potentially a little bit higher here let me just draw in what I've been looking for. So we've been looking at the 127 extension of this correction 111,55 and just above we have the 161 extension. So if we do get that move up then I've been looking to fade any move into that 111,80 area for at least another corrective move to develop. If we don't get that scenario like I said we do roll over from those 109,90s then we're looking for a three-way corrective move back into that 107 area as the downside target. However with this dollar index as I've been talking about over the last few weeks from a weekly perspective as long as we hold support into 105 I'd still see the potential for a 114 test to the upside which is a major trend channel that dollar index has been trading in. So just keep that in mind with the dollar index moving to the euro obviously retested that the trend line resistance from the year to date highs and we held again big outside rejection. So again similar scenario any breach here of 99,40s to me would be an opportunity on the short side we're still looking for initially the test of this 97,60s which is the yearly S3 from there we could see correction before. Ultimately I'm looking now at a weekly timeframe for us to test into this 95 area now which is the projected sending trend channel support on the weekly time scale but I can see the potential for a decent correction. Let me just draw this reshape this for you guys actually to update this for a second. So what I'm looking at here is the potential that we hold here we test this 96 we're going to pull back back into the resistance here the 103,50s then that's moved down into the 95 trend channel support before extending once again to the upside so that's what I'm tracking in terms of weekly timeframe of the Euro then he moved through this 99,40s want to be looking on the short side for a 97,60 test as the next downside objective. Sterling so Sterling has a couple of parts here that I'm looking at ultimately I believe that all roads really going to lead to at least a 110 tests in the interim first checking in with 112,50. So if we take out the support here at 114,70 and looking for a breach of the lowest takes down 112,50 we can correct from that 112,50 and like I say Sterling looks pretty weak to me obviously with the unfortunate loss of Queen Elizabeth and that's kind of distracted away from the fundamental problems that the UK are facing and I think once the funerals are in the way and the national mourning period comes to an end there's going to be a refocus on the problems in the UK and I see continued weakness ahead for Sterling don't get me wrong there will be corrected periods obviously but those to my mind are selling opportunities at this stage with Sterling. Dolly again this is one I had a good short running as well managed to sell into that 140,470 test picked up 185 pips obviously before it got blown out of the water and we reversed hard on that on that CPI data now what I'm looking for is any push up into the 145,146 area once again we've got the DOJ Ministry of Finance in Japan starting to check FX rates so I think somewhere in this 145,147 area they may put in a tentative intervention which I think will will drive a correct a more significant correction do I think that that's going to be the end of this run probably not but at least it will give a decent corrected move to to play for so there's a lot of so much in there 10 year yields obviously highly correlated to the moves we've been seeing in the end potential double top here now if we don't double top what's the next level we're going to be looking at on the 10 year well the next area is going to be this 127 extension which will put us up into 3.76 percent again what I'd anticipate as long as we maintain momentum divergence that that move will will be faded initially so we look at and move up into here certainly going to move back to retest this double top of support then maybe we had to 4% the 161 extension as the next level to the upside and what you want to bear in mind is that if the if the yields are doing that then we're likely to see further strength in the yen regardless of intervention now these yen crosses have some interesting setups to keep an eye on while the euro yen holds support at 142 30s I am looking for a test into the projected ending diagonal and the trend channel in the weekly timeframe 147 20s as long as we maintain momentum divergence potential triple divergence there in the data timeframe I'm watching for bearish reversal patterns there to engage on the short side looking for a move down to test projected ascending trend channel support 137 high volume load just below and then again we can make another attempt to the upside but I'm ultimately only tracking weakness into this 147 area as the potential to set up a more meaningful corrective move within a much broader channel for the euro yen sterling yen similar situation looking for any push up into 170 let's say 169 50s as long as we maintain momentum divergence down here then I'm looking to engage on the short side certainly we think about move back into the high volume over 161 and this is sending trend weekly trend line support 159 90s this is the target down there Aussie yen similar setups these other ones so we look for a push now into the 99 30s I'll be engaging on the short side as long as we get bearish momentum divergence maintain down here and we get bearish reversal patterns then we looked to engage on the short side and we're targeting a move back into the high volume node 93 70s and this it's projected sending trend line support coming in there as well or we attempt another leg higher caddy and actually broke out of its sending trend line resistance that we're looking at last week and again what's important you know this is something I stress you know hopefully on a weekly basis I don't play these levels blindly I wait for either a daily reversal or certainly a four hour or an hourly reversal before looking to get in here so we didn't get any you know although this was an area I was tracking we didn't get any response from the market so I'm waiting for the market to confirm these these setups we didn't get that so I'm looking now five wave sequence actually test up into the 112 area and as long as again we maintain momentum divergence here then we are going to be looking to or I'm going to be looking to engage on the short side and again thinking about a move back into the high volume node 105 50s is the first target on the downside dollar CAD watching now for that test of the 133 level as long as we maintain the momentum divergence what's bearish reversal patterns of our gauge on the short side looking for a move down into the high volume mode there which would give us a retest of one 2870s the Aussie obviously inverse watching for the Aussie to test into this potential ending triangle pattern here down into the 6640s also that 6640 is that big equality objective on the weekly time frame and and so what we're watching for there is bullish reversal patterns as long as we maintain the momentum divergence here engage on the long side first target is going to be the high volume mode up to the 69 hand Kiwi similar scenario here we're in this projected pitchfork support tracking 5860s is the level I'm watching there just below the 78.6 percent retracement of the entire pandemic decline and we have 5830s as the 131 extension from our 7063 low and so yeah we're watching the bullish reversal patterns there as long as we maintain this momentum divergence again I'll just draw it in for you so you can see exactly what I'm talking about so what price to make the new low test or support but we don't want to see this trend line broken in terms of the momentum bullish reversal patterns there and we take a look back into the high volume mode at the 62 hand gold I'm looking for this weekly quality objective to get tested now 1660s it's going to be a key test for gold here and we're going to be looking for bullish reversal patterns we've got some nice momentum divergence developing here on the daily time frame so any move into this 6670 6660 we want to see a bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side and then we're certainly thinking about a retest of the range highs here to 1820 finish up today looking at bitcoin bitcoin obviously reversed from the resistance area we're looking at 22,500 for me at this stage with bitcoin whilst we trade below this weekly trend line resistance 25,500 I am looking for 12,185 on the downside of bitcoin for looking to engage on the long side so that one is a slow burner but continues each pot continues to find resistance at the moment and like I say unless we take out this multi trend line resistance I'm focused on the downside but once we get that a quality test I will be paying very close attention to the price action in bitcoin so those are the charts that I'm tracking and the trades that I'm looking at in the coming sessions so now if there are any questions feel free to type them into the chat box or if you've got a page like me to take a look at or an instrument you'd like me to take a look at having covered equally you can do type that in and I will give you a view if you want to give me the time frame as well that's useful. KA normally you trade daily reversal or a four hour or an hourly reversal depending upon the confluence that I'm looking at in terms of the setup more often than not we're looking for a minimum really a four hour reversal and the best traders really I find come from those daily reverses. Any other questions? That's like I say I trade a multi-million dollar portfolio case so my risk on most of my positions is 0.5% per trade but obviously with my account size that's a reasonable chunk of change as you can imagine. Again it depends upon your schedule you know if you're trading intraday there are you know the London Open and New York Open are all good times if you're trading the daily time frame obviously you're looking at the the daily close in New York 10 a 10 p.m UK British summer time but even when you get those daily signals there is still opportunity to enter those trades as London comes in in the morning 7 to 8 a.m UK time if for the S&P 500 of the e-mini futures I trade the New York Open so that's 230 UK time to I generally trade the opening hour 230 to 330 UK time 930 1030 eastern standard time. Okay can't see any other questions coming through so I'm going to wrap this session if my account is 8000 again it depends on your risk tolerance okay I mean I personally I like to I like to sleep well at night so I keep my my trades to like I say a 0.5% of my account so you can get a calculator and work that out in terms of your if you've got eight of eight thousand dollar accounts 1% it's going to be 80 dollars risk per trade so 40 dollars risk per trade and then you adjust that lot size to your risk okay can't see any other questions coming through I'm going to wrap this session up here as always traders plan the trade trade the plan and most importantly manage all risk until next week thanks very much