 Everyone, this is May 16th, midday in the U.S., my name is Michelle Schneider-Misch, I am the Chief Strategist of MarketGauge.com, and a managing member of MarketGauge Asset Management, LLC. So looking here at the Euro-USD, right, so this is exactly about a week ago, we were saying that we really needed to get above the 111 level in order to see the dollar break down under its key support on a 23 month moving average at 100.7, and that's just pure DXY. But instead what we saw was it rally, which is kind of what we anticipated based on some momentum indicators. And now, of course, we see that the Euro is breaking down underneath the 50 day moving average, which I've added onto this chart, and below the thicker line is the 200 day moving average. Now, it is possible, of course, as everything in this market, in the U.S. in particular, see chart, we're seeing something completely different. What we're seeing here is that the 200 is above the 50, where in the other chart the 50 was above the 200, and why is that significant is because it relates to the phase. So whereas the other chart was showing more caution with a 200 day moving average well below, so we could stay in a caution period in the Euro dollar for a while, this is actually showing recuperation. So that's when something has been pricing underneath the 50 and the 200 with the 50 underneath the 200 in terms of placement. And now it breaks back over the 50, getting into a recuperation phase, and that's generally a relatively hopeful phase in terms of human emotion. It also tells me that right now we have a really good line in the sand here with 133.77. Again, this is the dollar versus the Japanese yen. And also, if we can get through that 200 day moving average at 137, it would obviously be more bullish for the dollar. There was a lot of talk here about the yen taking out the dollar, but you can see that that's corrected with this recent strength in the dollar. So again, these are lines in the sand, not meant to be the end all be all, but definitely guides. And with phases we need to closes over a moving average in order for it to change. So it would change literally from a recuperation to an accumulation phase. But clearly if we go left, you can see that the biggest resistance area here is at 137.80. So at this point right now, just based on a whole trading range theory, we could say we may get there, but if we can't get through it, regardless of what the phases are telling you, it's probably an opportunity to go back into yen versus the dollar. In this case, this is the dollar still showing relative strength against the yen, and we'll see what happens as we step out. Next chart I want to show you. Next chart I'm going to show you is the dollar versus the British pound. And when we looked at it last week, what we saw was that the dollar was weakening against the British pound tremendously. And now again, with the dollar strength, we're seeing that also possibly have bottomed out against the pound, particularly when we see a reversal pattern new low, followed by a strong day the next day. And if you notice down here, the green bar volume supporting that. But back to the moving averages here, the 50 is below the 200, just like I showed you before. And the slope is negative. So we still have some work to do. We would really have to see this dollar take out, say, 0.81 in order for this to get any kind of follow through. And again, you can see how often these range bound things have been playing out in this whole year so far, actually. If we just even go back to January, I mean, we broke down under the range for a while. Now we're right back really, or about to get back into this range. So I would say keep an eye on this 80 level in general as pivotal, 80, 40 also being pivotal. And then of course, we get through 81 for a couple of days that it's possible. We'll start to see a move back up to the higher regions. So now let's take a look at the dollar and see what's up. Now, what's interesting is looking at the dollar just in its own relationship right now. And this is delayed, but the dollar is still stronger as I'm talking to you today. Again, look at how well you had a reversal pattern down here, new low. Same thing happened here, and you had that nice rally. Then we had it here, and now we're starting to take off over that 50-day moving average. Again, into that recuperation phase that we were talking about. So I think it's pretty clear. This is what we talked about last week. If we got through 102.30, we mentioned, then we would probably see our next move to 103. If we get through 103, then I think it's possible to get up to 105.106. On the flip side now, we're going to look at 102 as the key support. And if that breaks, I'm not saying the dollar will necessarily crash. But then we can have an opportunity to look back at that key support area that I've been telling you about at 100.7. Okay, so pivoting over to natural gas. We're looking at the June contract here. And again, we see a wonderful reversal type pattern. Always look for those patterns. I mean, let's go back here, nice move up. And then back here, nice move up. When they fail, they give great short opportunities until they reverse. So these are great places to cover if you're doing more than day trading. And again, a nice move up. But we've got this 50-day moving average right here, so key. Right now it has stopped right at it. We did it the same time here. And interestingly enough, it hasn't been above the 50-day moving average since December 2022. So to me, this is really the key. Over 240, let's call it 245, 2.45 or 2.46 to round off. A couple of days, we like to see two days on a confirmation into a recuperation phase, considering how heavily short of this possible instrument is, considering it's been doing nothing. And how much volume we've had coming in in the last couple of days to the upside. I would say that would be good, at least for a move to 280, maybe even three. Where I would risk in this, at this point now, I believe that after it took out this day and has kind of held around these levels, I would probably use the low of this day, which is at around 2.14 as my risk point. It should not break down under there. Moving over to oil. Since we looked at Brent last week, we'll look at it again. This is that same June contract. We've got, again, another reversal pattern. So it's great if you look back and see how many times you've gotten some, especially day trading follow through. But now this is sort of interesting to me because we have been above both the moving averages. There's the 250, sloping down. Now with the strong reversal pattern, didn't have an amazing amount of volume, but it did have some volume. Really, our first accumulation day happened here. Now we're actually seeing more distribution in volume. So if we start to see another day of accumulation of volume coming in, and at the same time we start to see this price head closer to 78, that would get me interested. Obviously, over the 50 for a couple of days, let's call it 80, would get me more interested. And then over 84, 85, we've got ourselves back into a very interesting market with other implications. On the flip side now, I wouldn't do very much here. We've been range bound. We've got the follow through. But I would say that now you have an interesting risk point using the low of this day at around 73.50, let's call it. If we hold there, you could even start buying quicker at 76 to see if you can get to 78. But you've got to be very nimble when it comes to the oil market. And to end, let's take a look at two other commodities here. One is lithium. There's been a lot of buzz about lithium lately. This is a weekly chart. So let's take a look at a daily chart here. And on the daily chart, we've now, once again, our 50 day moving averages in blue have cleared it for more than a couple of days, getting an inside day as I'm talking to you today. So this is actually, once again, not only looking like a potential double bottom, but also clearing the 50, getting into a little bit of resistance up here at around 64.20. But this is definitely a mark to keep your eye on in terms of the momentum, which is our momentum indicator. We are seeing a little bit of a bullish divergence in that we cleared the 50 here before the price did. And now we're starting to clear the 200. We get through a little bit more momentum here. I would say that that would coincide with probably a move. I would even call it sooner, let's say a 63.50. And then you could risk to under the 50 day moving average and see if this thing has some legs. So I like that trade actually a lot. The other one, since food is constantly in the news, let's just take a look at the overall ETF. I looked at the individual commodities, and I didn't see anything as interesting as what this is showing us right now. So basically what this is showing us, and this is DBA, is once again range around, right? We got through, had a golden cross, made this nice big move up, we're traced all the way down to the 50 day moving average, which is why these key phases in this case of bullish phase are so important, especially when they retrace giving you a nice low risk. And now here we are back into another period of consolidation, but we have not been able to clear the bull and Japan resistance, which means there's not much to do right here. We did have a mean reversion trade. I love those mean reversions on our momentum when they correspond with new highs, and you get follow through great short opportunities. Again, we held the 50 on price. We didn't even quite get there on momentum, but the momentum is not wowing me here. No divergence, but we're seeing right now that we're kind of in a situation where, like so many other things, we are range bound, and it wouldn't get interesting in, let's say, it broke under 2050 or took out the recent highs at 2137. So that's it for today. Hope you enjoyed. Thanks so much for watching, and bye for now.