 Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of theaxesatrader.com. Nightly wrap up show. Hope everybody is doing well. Hope everybody had a good day of trading. Today was definitely the aftermath. We'll get to that in a second. If you are brand new to the channel, guys, all we ask is take one second. That's all it takes. Take one second, show some support for the channel, click a like, come aboard, subscribe, share, and we can continue to provide you some pretty decent value. At least hope to give you some pretty decent value on the day-to-day basis. Let's talk about the facts. Let's talk about the data. I've always maintained through every single video, through every single year that goes by that nobody can predict of what happens in the stock market tomorrow. You can get ready for it. You can accumulate the data. You can watch for confirmations, but the market because of the Fed and geopolitical concerns and hell, UFOs ready for the last year or so, you just don't know. It's not set in stone what's going to happen for the next year, for the next day. All we can do is basically trade on the data on the research from the night before. This is the data coming into today's session. Let's look at the indexes first. The Dow jealous industrial average, we talked about this now for a number of days, lost its 50-day moving average on April the 4th. Since it lost its moving average on April the 4th, the diamonds have gone from 385 all the way down to 376. Again, it doesn't sound like a lot, but it's about 800-900 Dow points. The IWM has lost the 50-day moving average and the Russell has gone from not a huge move yet, but the point this has gone from 202 all the way down to 193. Yesterday, we had two things happen. The SPY lost its 50-day moving average to 509 level and it traded all the way down to the next support, which is roughly around this 502-503 level. And the big one, the one I track, the one I trade is the NASDAQ 100. Yes, they finally gave back the 50-day moving average and traded all the way into the next rising support to this 430 level. Now, here's the hard data coming into today's session. We already know below the 50-day moving average, if you're a brand new trader, this is kind of a cheat sheet. Above the 50-day moving average, you're bullish. Below the 50-day moving average is a sell signal. And when the market is above the 50-day moving average, you are a buyer on weakness into rising support. When stocks are below the 50-day moving average, you are a seller or shorter into declining supply. And that literally is the cheat code. You can't buy strength in a market that has technical damage. Because what you wind up doing is, the majority of you guys don't have all these useless lines that I have. So you're kind of trading blind. You're buying stocks into supply. And the first thing I said this morning when you had a little bit of weakness, assuming a little bit of strength today in the market, I said, you have to be on pills. Like when this morning you woke up, you saw it meta up six, this one up six, blah, blah, blah, blah. And all I kept on saying is you really got to be on strong pills to buy stocks into strength the day after there was technical damage. And I tweeted this out a few hours ago. It's like going back to Hiroshima and Nagasaki, right? There was massive casualties, massive damage. And the people who survived the next day, they finally opened up the door to see how many people were actually left. That's exactly what today's session felt like. Yesterday we talked about the idea is it possible to have a dead cat bounce today? Yeah, it's possible, right? After technical damage, you'll probably see a situation of an inside day. And the problem was that didn't happen, right? It didn't happen. And when you look at today's Skoll board, after yesterday's 300 point decline in the Nasdaq, they couldn't even sweep out a green day. Okay, the Nasdaq today, Nasdaq was down 20 points to S&P was down 10 handles and the Dow after having a massive 8900 point decline from the 50 day moving average was finally up a whopping 63 points. Not great, right? Absolutely not great. We had some more, I guess, I don't know if you want to call it testimony or some statements by Powell. Basically, you know, he said and reiterated the same mumbo jumbo that they basically reiterate every single time anybody in the Fed has to talk, yeah, blah, blah, blah, blah, inflation, blah, blah, blah, we hope to curb it, blah, blah, blah, our goal is 2%. Up and down, up and down, up and down. That's exactly what happened after he started and stopped speaking. Let me just get rid of this. Right. You can see here when he stopped, when he started speaking, the Nasdaq literally, the Qs went from 432 all the way down to 2970. And then they ripped, all the way ripped to 433s. And then they sold off all the way back down to 430s. So nothing got accomplished by the bulls. We couldn't, we couldn't even muscle, they couldn't muscle a dead cab balance. Like I said in last line's video, the longer we continue to build below the 50-day moving average, the higher probability we are going to go lower. So here's some more stats for today. Forget it. I'm a big believer in data. I'm a big believer in accumulating data because it confirms basically what I'm seeing with my own two eyes. So here's where we begin, right? So the Qs, we know we lost the 50-day moving average. Yesterday, that created a cell signal. Today on this rally attempt, okay, on at least a rally attempt, only 11 of the Nasdaq 100 members were green on the day. Okay. It's a very, very important point. The more important point of that was zero out of the Nasdaq 100 members price improved and got above yesterday's channel. These are the numbers. Okay. Again, I love a good bull market. Just like everybody else, like I've said, there's more liquidity. People feel better, but there's something that hits different when there's a cell signal and stocks are taking the elevator down versus the steps up. And that's a very, very big deal. There was a couple of names that did show some strength today. NVIDIA today got upgraded along with pretty much every tech stock today. And yeah, the stock was up 13 points. But guess what it did, right? It was up 13 points, but it's still put in an inside day. It didn't take out the previous days high. It didn't take out the previous low. Again, not exactly a great thing. However, SMCI did, right? SMCI did put in a pretty big move today, a 10% move. And if we somehow we do get a dead cat bounce back tomorrow. Yeah, this is the one you definitely want to keep an eye on. At least it reclaimed the previous channel. And now it actually looks pretty good. So if it starts building above today's channel for tomorrow, yeah. I mean, there's a shot this thing continues. But that's the problem guys, right? And I've always maintained this. We always talked about this, especially during the bear market of 2022. Unfortunately, new traders are looking for the stock that stands out. Look at this one. It's relatively strong. I'm not looking for the one that stands out. I'm looking for the 12,000. We don't. That's the point. It's not the sum of the parts. I don't care about the sum of the parts. I care about the whole. So if the whole is telling me we are directional bias in one direction, how much confidence do you really have taking anything to the long side that's more than a scalp? Again, like I sort of talked about in last night's video and I'm going to reiterate today, the longer we stay below the 50, the higher probability, well, we're going to go lower. So the bulls need to in the next day or so to get their asses back above the 50 day, we're going to have a conversation in the lower prices. So if you look at individual names, you'll kind of see what I'm saying, right? So let's start off with Tesla, right? Start off with Tesla. Third time's a charm. Fourth time's a charm. There we go. Tesla, right? We talked about Tesla. Yesterday was the lowest close in the whole formation. It got below this range here. It got just absolutely hit today when it traded all the way down to 5370s. I finally covered the thing into the 5450s wash, which was great. Kind of firmed up a little bit today. I'm going to be looking for any type of rejection in the next couple of days into strength. As long as this keeps on staying below this 16050 level, which was the whole range that we talked about for the last couple of days, it's going to continue to go lower. You saw pretty aggressive 145, 150 weekly puts coming in for next week's expiration as well. So any strength in Tesla, I'll be using at least for one or two days using that for a potential rejection into strength. Look at Meta, right? Meta yesterday lost its 20-day moving average and just couldn't price improve today. It held the bottom of the channels, the same price back-to-back days. I'm watching this thing for tomorrow. There's more market weakness. I'm definitely watching this thing. Look at Microsoft. Same thing, right? Same thing. Microsoft lost $14 yesterday. It was up 94 cents today. Same thing. It held the bottom of the range here. Now back-to-back days, if it loses the bottom of the range, it should get hit more. So you have a whole bunch of names that are doing exactly the same thing. Look at Amazon, right? Amazon today stopped at the 20-day. Now what happens? Again, it couldn't even price improve. And this is one of the better-looking charts out that couldn't price improve today's action. Look at a name, for example, like, what else is there? We talked about AMD, right? AMD as well. AMD tried to get back above yesterday's channel, got rejected off the five-day moving average. And this is after losing the 50-day moving average at 182. So the stock is already down. Already down after yesterday down about 25 points from the 50-day moving average. And again, this is why we keep on reiterating the point of the lower stocks continue to build underneath the 50-day. More and more names are going to start to crack. So it's very, very important that the bulls step up tomorrow or the next day and start doing what they have to. Because if not, again, like I said in the last line's video, I'm not saying this is going to turn into 2022. But the longer we stay, the longer we have the ability to go down. So that's it, guys. That's it. It's a game plan going into tomorrow. It's the same thing today. Use weak stocks that are confirming lower, short them into supply, stocks that are breaking down below the previous day's channel. Obviously, short them into weakness. And until the narrative changes, until we start neglecting and engulfing bad news, that's going to be the game plan. Because that's the formula. That's the blueprint in a sell-bias market. And unfortunately, again, you can close your eyes, close your ears, stop your feet, go, nah, nah, nah. That's where we are. We're in sell signal. Below 50-day moving average is a sell signal. And the faster you understand that in your developing career, the faster you'll stop making mistakes like buying stocks into strength below supply. Guys, have a great night, everybody. I'm going to cut this a little bit short. I got to take my kids to basketball training. Tomorrow's a new day. Game plan in hand. Always, we're ready for both sides of the market. We have an opinion. We have a bias. And now we wait for confirmation to play itself out. Guys, God bless. Have a great night. And I will see you all in the field tomorrow.