 This is scary because it reminds me of when I was a musician. When you're going to run on stage to start playing, but thankfully I'm a much better speaker than I'm a musician. That's your luck. So, long time ago, 1986, 1987, I went to Berkley College in Boston, and I studied with Bill Fisale and a bunch of other people, and it was a really great time to be a musician. This was all before the internet. So, if you wanted to get a gig, you'd have to send out a CD, and make phone calls, a completely different world. I had several record concerts, I made 20 records, I played in Las Vegas, I played in a chipship. I had a good time as a musician. But in the 90s I got bored with being a working class musician, whatever that would mean. And I went on the internet, I started a few internet companies on music. And then 2001 was the crash. And my company died, we went to heaven, we lost $20 million, we were in bankrupt. So, you know, every American entrepreneur has to go bankrupt. And right after that I started to realize that I was ahead of the time in my thinking, which is not good for business, you know. You're five or ten years too early, you have to wait. Sort of like Daniel Eck, you know. Music like Walter, okay, that's definitely a good thing, but is it too early? And so, I was very early, so I decided to write the book The Future of Music that you know, probably. And it became a futurist. Now, what a futurist does, and I've been doing this for ten years, is not to predict anything. At least not me. You have to ask Ray Kurzweil or Elton Toffler for the predictions. But what I've worked on is two to five years from now, and I think all of us sort of know what's coming. We don't have time to look at. There's a Chinese saying that says, if you want to know about the future, ask your children. Because the children still have a mindset that's open and not occupied with making money. But if we're all here trying to make money today, then it's hard to think about what the next thing is going to be in five years. So what I want to do for you today is to bring you the view from 35 years from now, so you can prepare for a future that's going to be very, very interesting. Now, we've never had that many changes as we've had in the last two years. Think about this for a second, right? It took a long time, like, 75 years for a telephone to become mainstream. It took about 20 years for computers. It took about seven years for the internet. It took three years for the mobile and two years for Facebook. So the speed is mind-blowing. So it doesn't actually take a future as to think about all these things that are going to happen in the next five years. For example, Europe is either going to crash or actually become a country. That's quite obvious. In 10 years, we're not going to be driving cars with gas engines. Also very obvious. Not a welcome message, but here in Copenhagen, of course, that's already the case. You're lucky there, because not only is Denmark the happiest country in the world, according to some research, but also the greenest, which is called Copenhagen. In any case, what I do with my company, the previous agency, is our motto is it wasn't raining when Noah built the art. This whole idea of saying that the developed scenarios are based on four sides and doing this for a few companies around the world. The whole four sides basically means saying and looking at things that are beyond the obvious. We do this for several hundred companies, including music companies and Google and YouTube and Samsung and many others to develop scenarios. We also work a lot with artists, writers and producers. My previous lives, this is a place in Berkeley, California, called Auschwitz. Some of you may know it. It's pretty well known, but that's where I started my career running clubs. The fact that it's still there, you know, is probably a good thing. And this was me as a musician in my previous life. So I have one experience in the turf that you represent here from different angles, and I hope to share a few things with you there. So my presentation and all of my books are available on this website called girdcloud.com. It's a bit of a joke. It's really just Dropbox. You guys know Dropbox? Everybody knows Dropbox. This is a Dropbox folder. It's a public folder. You can go there and download about three gigabytes worth of things, including all my free books, Music 3.0, Friction is Fiction, The Future of Content. You can download everything you want and the presentation from today. We'll be uploading it tonight. So just look on the presentations to download this. You can also follow me on Twitter. I'm G-Leonard, G-L-E-O-N-H-A-R-D on Twitter. Otherwise just search for girdfuturists. So LK, a pretty brilliant guy from Intel, said the best way to predict the future is to invent it. And I think this is so much so true for the music business, because clearly all of us know the reported music industry is in the toilet. But the live music industry is actually not doing so bad, and the publishing industry isn't doing so bad, and music in general is just as popular as ever before. Music, we don't have less talented musicians, and we have more and more musicians in publishing things. So the future here is clearly going to be five billion people connected to a digital network. I mean just imagine this, right now we have two and a half billion, and all of those in the other three billion countries in India and China, Brazil, Russia, Africa are coming online at a fast pace. Do you know what the biggest factor in tourism is in Europe today? There's Chinese people and Brazilians coming to Europe for our culture. This is amazing, because we're seeing this growth, and of course they're interested in music and films in all these cities. So basically five billion connected people will make a living in a quite different world, and this world is largely determined by what you guys know as cloud computing. So basically, everything that we do, our music, our films, our health records, our works, is going to end up in the cloud. I mean it's already with music, we have Spotify and ZipFly and RDO and what, you know, that's already in the cloud, our movies are in the cloud with wire play, and with Netflix and Hulu, you know this is already happening, but it's going to be everything in the cloud, everything. Quite scary thought in fact, for other reasons. But obviously a really, really powerful business scenario, if all of your live shows, your concerts, if your club experiences can't be in the cloud, which has been tried before, imagine the kind of new things that you can do there. And the costs are so low now. When I grew up on the internet era, there was a thing called the digital club network in New York, they tried to put all the clubs online, of course it was way too expensive, but today imagine all of the world's live music in the cloud, and that's what we're doing. Imagine all the things that we can do with this, and of course also the competition for people's attention. I mean the competition is quite different when you go to a bookstore, and you go to buy my book, then you have I'm competing for 20,000 books in the bookstore. But if you go on Amazon, I'm competing with what? 20 billion books, quite different. So that's an issue there. And remember of course that technology, as we're all living in technology, is exponential. Just watch some of Ray Kurzweil's TED talks on this. Technology is not growing linear like we do, like the regular business does. That basically means that when you count to 30, in the linear world, it's just 30. But when you go 30 in the exponential world, it's over a billion. One, two, four, eight, sixteen. So it's quite mind-boggling in this world. We're not looking at those numbers, we're not at the number three or four. Now if they look very much the same, when you count one, two, three, it's almost the same as counting one, two, four. But later it goes like this. We're living in a world that's vastly exponential. So I would say today we're here at number eight, basically. So we're a little bit further along number four over here, and we can feel that difference. But in the next few years, when all of the smart devices come in the market, and smart tablets and phones are 10 euros, you go to India and buy a tablet for $30, a tablet and a computer. Now that happens, of course. But think about what that will do to our world, and think about the social change that's going to happen. I mean, we already have a vast social change because of devices. When guys eat at a bar now, they don't talk about colors or women or whatever. They talk about apps. Say, what kind of apps do you have? That is already a change that we can see there. Pretty mind-blowing. So in this exponential world, question I have for you, are you ready for that to happen? Because exponential means that next time is twice of 18 months, roughly, all technology doubles in power. What will that happen for you when you look at your club in five years from now? Are you ready to take that next step? My clicker isn't so happy today. So as you know, the recorded music industry, we're not going to talk much about that because it's fairly boring topic and not really your industry, I don't think. The life music industry is that the recorded music industry is a giant money pit. It has lost about 70% of revenues in the last decade. And this is not because users aren't willing to pay. They are paying for everything else. They're paying for Farnville, folks out there when there's a game on Facebook, 600 million dollars a year. They're paying for Netflix. It's not because of that. It's not because musicians suck. There's no good musicians. Definitely not. It's because of holding on to a business model that worked just fine to their advantage before the internet. It's simpler than that. But I'm not going to get into those details. I think that a lot of record labels and the music industry is a bit like oil companies. They know it doesn't work, but they still make money. So the dinosaur attitude I think is going to change. We're going to see basically this myth that people are saying nobody wants to pay for content online. Not true. In general, this whole idea of saying that people who are on the internet are not willing to pay is just utterly ridiculous. I mean, when you think about this for a second, right? Apple makes more money with apps, selling apps than it does with selling movies and music. I mean, we're paying for this. We're paying for LinkedIn premiums, I'm sure. We're paying for Flickr premium. We're paying for all kinds of things on the web. I mean, look at this low population growth that's going to happen in the year 2020. We're going to have over 6 billion people on the internet. And those people are willing to pay. Of course, in many countries, they may not be willing to pay as much. And how, of course. If you're looking at Netflix, the movie service, $10 a month, I think you don't have that in Denmark, I don't think do you? You do? Okay, so you have subscribers, I can see it. I wish we had in Switzerland, but we don't. You know, 38 million subscribers, paying $10, 10 euros, I think, a month, if you can get all these movies for free. But it's better. It works better, it's easier, it's convenient, $10, okay. So that proves the point, people are willing to pay. They're willing to pay for value. And I would submit to you, for your concerts, for your clubs, for your organizations, if you fight the right avenue to get them to open up their wallets, you can't force them to pay. The biggest mistake that we can make today is to enforce paint, like so-called paint walls of newspapers. The New York Times, the most reputable newspaper in the world, and allegedly the best writers, in the country of 330 million people in America, do you know how many people are paying $300 a year to read The New York Times online? Take a guess. 1.1 million. And that's a lot of money, it's 3 million, right? But I mean, this is the biggest newspaper in the biggest country, and you have, of course, 3 million dollars, right? So the pay wall is forcing the people to pay on the internet, in a digital society, is impossible, because we have worker rights. Some are evil, some not. But this is only a legal difference, it's not a practical difference. I mean, all of you know that you can go on YouTube and use a converter like Download Helper, which I don't want to tell you about, it's allegedly not good. You can download anything you want from YouTube. Why do you need Spotify then? Well, I am a subscriber, it's more convenient. But the bottom line is, forcing to pay is like forcing to love. The same thing. You don't go up to a person and say, hey, it's our first date, but you know, how can I force you to love me? And that's what a lot of people are doing on the internet, they say, you go away or you pay, that won't work. So we have to work in a more native approach to something that's a little bit more obvious, a little bit more together than the rest of it, so we'll have to just see if I can fix this here. So we're going to turn this around, and basically what we're seeing here, sorry, the publisher, Tim O'Reilly, is a really smart guy. He runs an organization called O'Reilly Publishing, and he talks a lot about the future of content. He says, if you take more out and you put in, the ecosystem eventually fails, and that's what happened to music, to record the music. So I won't talk much more about that, because you know, there's a topic that's a little bit off the center for our discussions here. But we're moving into the future of where the ecosystem is we're playing by ecosystem. And you can see this unfolding now. The ecosystem that's happening in music is absolutely astonishing. You have SoundCloud, you have Spotify, you have Spotify becoming a platform, you have all these movie sites, you have Netflix, traditional movies, it's like a biosphere. So all of a sudden this is a really amazing development that we're seeing right in front of us. It's no longer about signing a deal with some of the big companies. You can still do that, but it's becoming a much more networked site. And that's basically where we're going. And I think in general, of course, there's going to be quite a few changes that our global paradigm changed that are quite painful. I mean, imagine if you're a newspaper publisher about Newsweek, and you're finding out that you were selling a one-page ad for $100,000 in the print edition, but on the app you're going to get $2,000. Because you no longer print things, so now you're on the app, right? That's painful. But it's like a horse shoemaker, you know, for horses, that when the trains come along, they didn't like the trains coming along, because the horses were less important, but nevertheless the train won. We still have horses, right? But we have to change the business model. So what we see here, folks, is this paradigm shift from distribution to attention. It is no longer about distribution. It's no longer about getting a copy. It's about making money with attention. You see the newspaper, and of course we call it music, and so on. So this is the last thing I want to talk about. We'll probably talk about it later on in the other part. Basically, what needs to happen, and of course you have precedent in this country with TDC, the only way forward is to legitimize digitalism. It's like the war on drugs. I'm not going to get into detail on this, but the war on drugs hasn't created any benefits to those who are actually drug editors. It hasn't created a benefit for the legal system. So very much the same thing. The war on digital music hasn't created a benefit for the composer or the artist. Not really for nobody. So there needs to be a new way to work this out. So bottom line for your business, don't worry about protection. Worry about engagement. Do you have people who love your club, your festival, your organization, your artists, who really are pursuing you to be part of this? I mean, do you have a brand? The Monterey Jazz Festival wasn't just about music or isn't just about music. It's about this huge happening. It's about being part of something. It's about being engaged. It's not about being asked to pay when you're not ready to pay. And by God, it's not cheap when you go. So what is happening here is that we need to pursue this idea of saying let's put some locks on to force people to the idea of being irresistible. Here are some examples. Amazon.com is irresistible for a lot of people who want to buy things on the web because they give you presents. Free shipping. In America, all of the Amazon premium users have free movies. 5,000 free movies to choose from. It's a present. Dropbox. If I invite you to Dropbox and you sign up, you'll be able to store it. It's present. Engagement. So now with the social networks, this is a really big thing for us. This is a medium that for the first time ever is controlled by its users. And you could say what you want about Facebook in terms of privacy and all the discussions. But if we all decide that Facebook sucks and that they have messed with us too long, they're dead in three months. And you couldn't say that about Microsoft. You couldn't say that about all the sacks. You couldn't say that about any of the other stuff that we had before in the medium. So Facebook and Google are very much dependent on how good we are. And they know this. So if you're looking what's happening with Facebook, the usage on smartphones, this is the column here, points in one direction. Facebook is the new highway for what we are putting out before deciding for our compensate. And there's many things that we have to be careful about at Facebook, but I tell you one thing. I recently started advertising on Facebook and it costs $1.20 of Google and it's extremely effective. So if you're running a club and you're promoting something that is unique to your club from some other Facebook for 10 dollars, you can get some of this equal stretch. So that's just a sort of a short excursion into the social media part. Here's the most important thing. Music is not a product. Music isn't like bananas or like carbs. Music is and always has been a service. And it's always about the experience, the immersion, being part of something. It's about culture. You don't put culture in a tank in a can and sell it for $1. We did that with cities and we were very lucky that it worked. But now we're back to this realizing that we are a service and an experience. And I would argue that in general that's the case. The CEO of Sony the hardware company, not the music company said three years ago in Las Vegas that Sony wasn't in the business of selling boxes. That Sony was a service provider, a brand, a lifestyle. Of course, they wish. In the end, they sell boxes. But music is about these things that we can't really touch that makes us feel a certain way. And this is what people want in the age of electronics and digital media. They want something that they can touch. That they can actually experience. So we're not actually in the information society anymore. I mean, there's so much information that we're drowning. Every day there's new emails, new SMS, new updates and what have you. I read the other day that the average person now works 20% more because of mobile devices. So when you're in a subway somewhere your employer can send you an email you're supposed to respond. You just always work in doing something. So basically what's happening now is that we're moving away from the idea of information being so important but to the idea of an experience being and the experience you can't copy. It's impossible to copy the atmosphere and the surrounding part of a show or a concert or being part of a fan club or whatever you want to call it. It's impossible. Kevin Kelly, the founder of Wired Magazine he always says basically if you want to go look in the future you have to, if the copies are free you have to do something that can't be copied and copies are free copies are free copies of music are essentially freely or not they are free or cheap in any case they are no longer a really strong opportunity for money. So turning something into an experience is crucial. This is a movie called The Life of P that many of you may have seen when they launched they felt a theater with water and the first people that were watching this movie which was largely about being on the ocean with the tiger they were able to sit in this water with a boat and watch the movie and of course it was vastly expensive I'm sure but this created a whole thing about this movie is like an experience you get stuck inside. That's what we need things to be inexperienced we don't need things to be digitized in such a way that we feel like we're consuming bits it doesn't do anything for us. So basically what we're going to see here is that we have this increasing convergence of online offline. This is a good scene that shows that we kind of want both we want to sit on the beach and just be disconnected and enjoy the waves but then again we can immediately tap into something to read the stock report from this morning by using digital media and I think we have those things in parallel one isn't going to replace the other this is very good news for you it's not about being virtual it's about combining those two things and I think if you take those two worlds the real world and what people call meat space and then the cyberspace you put them together you have a very powerful view of the future of what all the things will become possible I'll show you some of them that we can get into but the desire for experience and so on and empty spaces will prevail and empty space means that sometimes you don't have anything to do and you need that because otherwise you can't take in any more stuff because you're already full and this is really what it means to go out and see a show to have an intentionally grand space this is becoming a real issue worldwide is a digital addiction 60% of American kids when they wake up at night do a Facebook update about their dream can you imagine that I mean I only do it every other night but in any case this is clearly a topic my view is that once we're done with all this cool toys and this cool technology and the gadgets and all these things we still want something that we can count on and that we can connect to we still want to be part of so we're looking in this direction if my clicker kind of gets around to it here we have this complete convergence of internet and TV and why I'm telling you this because if you run events and concerts and show cases the television is coming to you basically all the things we talked about in the last 15 years were too difficult to realize to be a geek or spend lots of money but now what you're doing in real life can be broadcasted anybody can be broadcasted you can publish and show things and you can harvest those unique opportunities that we're seeing here so in this country I think you already have Viaply and Hulu and other things right but in general this is called over the top services OTT services and they will have several hundred of them coming up like YouTube, Amazon, Netflix, Hulu and all the other ones and you'll see here very soon that live events and concerts are the next step so in a few years we'll be able to go to one of those 100 players and say we can do a syndication agreement on concerts directly from these players even if it's only for 50 people because the cost will be next to zero cost will be just a collection this to me is a really amazing scenario that you're going to see that's terrible that's what happened with the Kindle all concerts, shows and events and the club there's a couple of services already doing this and YouTube for example has recently commissioned 300 million dollars worth of TV show Netflix has commissioned a movie with what's his face forgot it but it's fine 200 million dollars for that as well so we're going to see stuff like this company that I'm a little bit involved with called Showgirl TV that allows you to virtually attempt jazz shows in about 50 clubs around the world remotely, some free some paid you can be virtually there and imagine what happens when you can actually talk to other people with your tablet while they're also watching this show and this is a really interesting scenario that didn't exist until recently so in five years every single club every venue, every concert connected to a global network can you charge for that? probably even be part of a charging system like Flatter or others where you can raise money from so live streaming concerts is listed by J. Walter Thompson as one of the key revenue streams for the future of media and this has been a fake promise by and large since the first days of the internet but we finally have the Jews we have the connectivity and all of the telecoms and mobile service operators they want nothing more than to create meaning with their connectivity why would we buy a DSL or a fast LTE line or whatever if there's nothing in it so we're going to see that becoming a standard on a global scale and this will be very very interesting for all of us so the opportunity is also to put the fans in the front seat because it's not possible to connect them if you want a club or a concert or a festival of course everybody knows this already you want to engage with your people they come there you want to give them the choice of who should play you're going to do polls with them you're going to use a wristband when they come in to connect with them while they're there and this technology is getting so cheap now and so possible as an example there's a water park in Tel Aviv a water park and they came up with a very simple idea the kids come in to go in this water park and you can get a Facebook wristband with your Facebook ID you log in to get this electronic band and then when you go down a slide you hit the wristband and it sends a message to your Facebook wall saying I like this slide and there's some cameras that take photos of people and you're lucky enough to be in there connecting the real experience with Facebook has sold out this place for six months it was the same place as last year connecting people with what they do with all my money and trade in this overlap and interface it's going to be a crucial thing so I think live music new money will be fueled by social local, mobile, cloud and video and of course it will be fueled by having good music that's already given hopefully but in America they call this social, local, mobile and local for example means that when you enter the pub if you have a smartphone you can check in that you're there and when you check in for example with Foursquare or Facebook or other apps you can receive offers from the band the band can say you know what when you're done with this gig live shows for five years this is already 300 million after you go there so the possibilities here I mean we have to take a few leaps here to figure out how we can integrate this technology into the everyday affairs of running a club but here's the thing we can learn this on Amazon it has to be digitally native it has to be starting from a place that's available because of the internet not just in addition for example now Amazon is offering as of recently a way to rent textbooks so imagine if you're in Brazil or in Thailand you don't have money for books because they have to be printed and shipped you can get a digital rental service in some cases in Brazil they're investing in this for $10 a year for all of the student textbooks right on the mobile device how that will change the world so think of something for your application that can only work because of the internet because of the fact that people have mobile devices I said this many times before but you know the mobile phones and mobile devices are essentially becoming our external brain and Ray Kurzweil calls this the brain expansion I mean think about this for a second when you have a question about something what do you do? you look it up on Wikipedia or you look it up and when you're looking for a restaurant you check out TripAdvisor this is a little bit geeky now but this will become a reality for pretty much everyone so 2005 when the Pope the now defunct Pope was inaugurated this was the scene in Rome and this is 2013 now if you're looking at this picture if you're not getting what is happening there's no trouble mobile is the new normal and that's basically it the internet is mobile we're going to go away completely from people using desktops to do whatever they're doing to a very large degree in India for example mobile access to the internet already is bigger than desktop and this is really happening now across the world so if you're not doing something with your club or your event to be mobilized whether it's a mobile website or mobile apps and you're probably already doing a lot of these things then you just miss the boat I mean this is crucial and where it's going that is the new normal being connected is the new default and that causes other problems which I can't get into now but if you're looking at this study entertainment and media CEOs around the world what they're saying about the biggest trend 100% of them are saying mobile devices, smartphones tablets, it's the biggest trend in entertainment so can you create an app that allows people to connect with you or can you find a way to get them to vote on who should be getting the gig next and things like that, I mean those things are pretty obvious and easy and already happening all over the world but to engage with people on mobile devices clearly is going to become the new default they're becoming our external brains as I said that's something that we sometimes have to cry about because we're not active to our lives but at the same time we'll have to find a way forward to deal with this interference but what we're seeing here is that mobile content is essentially the next printing press the change from the internet as it was before mobile is as big as the change from the spoken word to the printed word so there is a huge opportunity for us to engage with people on mobile devices and to find ways to actually interact with them and to build loyalty because as you know it's all about loyalty and trust do they trust you, do they have the right artists do they appreciate what you're doing and all the work that you're doing to create the programs and to go through all that work of fishing for the right things your global interface to the world is not a computer it's the mobile so even if you're as old as I am you understand this basic principle what's happening here is total customer empowerment I mean, go to a restaurant put your smartphone on the table bring up the TripAdvisor app go to the page of the restaurant where they are reviewed put it on the table when the waitress comes and she sees you with the TripAdvisor app about to rate their restaurant you know when Germany they tell you to go away it depends on where you are you don't care but in general it's empowerment we don't like something we can say immediately this band sucked or we can do like the Pope we can make all photos of him so basically what happens here is vast empowerment that we all have to deal with and so Virgin for example has responded to this and created this huge website called Virgin Life where you can connect with artists and musicians and live shows on YouTube and on Twitter on this huge website called Virgin Life that they have set up to connect with Virgin in a musical way this works on all different devices and stuff so it's a really interesting idea and this cartoon brings up an interesting question won't social media reveal how antisocial we really are this is a problem believe it or not in other words when I worked for a record label as a futurist a couple years ago and we talked about how we would want to open up the process and talk to people about the music business you know what the CEO told me he said we don't want to talk to people about this we want them to buy our damn music that was his response so I mean how could you possibly believe that if you're not interested in talking to the consumer and other people around you about what you are doing that you're going to be successful that worked 20 years ago for Deutsche Telecom it's certainly not going to work today so that is a big change that we're seeing and what we have to do to go forward so for example here we're seeing this app from Amazon the shopping app that you can use to go into the store and compare the price of this product or any product with what is being offered online so imagine that a store owner is not so happy about this when you can go in and you can scan the price and you can say oh it's only half on Amazon click done so this interruption is no longer for geeks this is becoming completely normal and we have to use these kind of things to get people inside of what we're doing rather than outside of what we're doing because quite simply on television which was the mainstream media now our job was to consume and on the mobile our job is to engage that's a very big difference and this is the opportunity for you because you in this business, in life music business we're never so much about consumption but about engagement so it's a very good fit to create new business models for this we see this complete convergence of mobile, television social media I mean basically social media are the next big broadcasters Facebook is bigger than the biggest broadcaster in the world and they're broadcasting us we are the program of Facebook we are the program of YouTube these are the new broadcasters YouTube will be the biggest global broadcaster in the history of television bigger than all of the other guys already is, billion users so this is a great opportunity for anybody that's not a mainstream line artist because it's about niches it's not about being a hit you know you've read this book years ago called Long Tail some of you may have read this we were laughing about this a year ago saying that's not true because on the internet people still like stars and it's true but when you are a user of Spotify or Netflix and you have a flat range offering you can watch or listen to anything you want there's no punishment so what do people do they download cube music and Bali music and whatever not just Lady Gaga because they can that creates a really interesting scenario opportunity for niche markets so one key question I want to ask you is your organization mobile optimized because if it's not you should do it tomorrow and it's actually very easy to do how exactly you do that but this is clearly this is a key point 60% of search in the area of music is on mobile devices so if your website is using flash as big as this you're not going to sell much through that mechanism of mobile is your experience mobile visual and social Metallica has a website where you can download all of the latest shows directly from them I mean they're really bad MP3 quality it's a live feed basically that's extremely popular and it's connected with the fans directly rather than saying listen to us on YouTube you can also pay I think it's something like $10 for 10 shows or something like that very little and here's something very interesting for you I think most of you are not running huge clubs like the Ministry of Sound or something this chart shows what's happening in mainstream media is that more and more people are watching more and more different things I mean clearly here we see in 1950 I love Lucy and Dallas and so on 70% of Americans are watching these shows and what do we have today 2005 that's the latest data I can find CSI and Seinfeld would get something like 20% I think the data from last year is that the maximum amount of people that you get in America watching the same show is 7% everybody else is doing other things including Ted.com and Hulu and Netflix and so on their fragmentation this fragmentation is great news unless you're a hit if you're a hit this is bad news because you're a fragment you're being fragmented but basically what happens here is that even if you're the most remote stylistically as an artist you can see that electronic music for example has done great because of this so fragmentation we have to embrace there's not much we can do about this and the niches are becoming the new masses so rather than having one mass market we have a mass of niches and that's something I think we can exploit also for the future to go into a new direction so you're clearly seeing this overwhelming reality that the audience has more content that they're drowning in content so what we need to do is we need to create better filters we need to create a way for them to say well they appreciate the programming that we do this is what professionals do you know journalists or broadcasters or radio people and so on that basically the sense making is what people want they don't go to Spotify to listen to 7 million songs they're going there to listen to a particular song or something that we recommend so it's not about the noise or the volume it's about the selection the curation and I would submit to you that you as an event organizer or a concert organizer or a record label you are the filter you're like the guy who runs the museum who picks out the pictures that go into the museum nobody goes in the museum to look at a thousand pictures nobody goes to a restaurant to eat the entire world's food in one day so it's about curation it's about sense making ask yourself a simple question I ask myself that every week is what you're doing actually making sense or is it making noise because if it's making noise then you're dead nobody cares about noise anymore we have so much noise you can say we're going to make some more noise some more bad things this is about a truly unique experience not about noise making so if everything is within reach every movie every song every concert every recipe every therapy group on the internet is within reach if that's always within reach then attention will be distribution and intention beats marketing and this is really a great shortcut also to the fact that now we can actually go direct we can go direct to those people that like what we do but the other guys right next to it and that's the good thing about what's happening if you're looking at a brand like Moleskine the first question is that you have to ask yourself who you are what is your identity and Moleskine has said we're between the culture and identity and function we're over in this quadrant you know Moleskine the books the notebooks that she use so what is your future identity where exactly are you and I would say that basically what's happening is that in music as far as clubs and concerts and events are concerned you have to become a brand and a platform not just a destination not just a building or a date or once a year thing but you become something recognizable like being a platform is a challenge because you have to do more things and just put something on platform means somebody else can be on top of you so if you're looking at all the successful brands in many ways you can say that for the final few good record labels like ECM Records or Putumaya World Music so they are platforms they are brands and that is I think that's the challenge like Apple has a huge brand that is a cult I'm a cultist as well so brands and music will be a huge thing in the future you know that every single brand around the world is now saying you know what if the internet and social media is going to be as good as it looks why do we need television I mean they have already decided that print and newspapers are out you know that so television now they are all saying you know what if this works can we just be a cool brand and culture like Red Bull does or like other brands do so the future is going to be a lot of brands coming to you and say can we collaborate to reach the right people that we want to reach and some of that may be a little bit difficult because of the brands who and who they are but if you look to China this is already the number one way the Chinese musicians are funded through brands they don't sell music people don't buy CDs they are funded by brands that creates of course other interesting overlaps but in Korea and China that's already become a standard I think this is a huge opportunity I'm going to have to wrap up very soon okay I'll take this out but location based services we talked about early and then I'm going to come to the final wrap up and some questions location based services like this are crucial like if you have a club you've got to get into location based services which means somebody comes in and you can connect with them using their mobile device and this is quite standard using Facebook and so on but Starbuck is the master of this did you know that Starbuck has about 35 million followers on Facebook everybody that is a friend of Starbuck on Facebook drinks twice as much coffee it's a proven fact not necessarily coffee but they go buy something coffee is bad but they buy other things they're a customer you get people to like and engage with you they become a customer it's sticky that's really what you want you want to Harvard that potential of what happens on location based services I'm going to really have to skip here to get to the end okay one quick thing is that we have to think about how we define value and there's a huge definition going on when you ask American kids what they think about music and how much they spend on music per month 50% of them say zero because they have redefined the value of music not being something that you immediately spend money for while at the same time these guys as I said earlier are making a killing with $10 a month so the reason to pay is what we need we need to define the reason why they should pay us and this is a mission I think that we're going to see emerging Netflix versus New York Times and I sometimes say it has to be pay will not pay wall and this is crucial to figure out in your position what are people going to pay for and why and how what is the reason to pay because the reverse doesn't work as it's saying basically the reason to be punished so that you end up paying that doesn't work any longer so the reason to pay is what we have to figure out sorry I'm going to have to go in and jump ahead a little bit here I was vastly optimistic here on my own timing but give here a brief summary so question number one what do you want to be in five years ask yourself that simple question take an afternoon at the beach and think about this we have to embrace four sides we have to embrace what is happening outside we can't deny all these things that are happening we have to think about what's coming towards us technology is exponential we may very well have the internet inside of our brains in ten years which is a really scary thought I wish I could have it now so I could look you up and take out your social network profile but agility and speed is essential this is just part of what we have to do now dive into social, local, mobile that is sort of the key message I think for as far as changing the way you do business social, local, mobile is affordable it's there putting the fans in the front seat over the top platforms are a huge opportunity for music video for opportunities to broadcast your shows and some of that is still in the early stages in some places but I can guarantee you in the next three years you're going to see every one of those broadcasters that goes over the top and all the telecos come to you and ask for a way of collaborating to put your stuff into these channels I mean YouTube already has that has done that for a long time and quite successfully so so optimize for mobile become a platform and a brand think about what it takes to become loved by your customers so that you become larger than the gig that's the mission because not just the gig that they come there for music is about the experience so we have to figure out what Kevin Kelly calls the new generatives the new ways that the experience makes money and that the experience can be larger so that we can sustain it pursue reason to pay we talked about that already it's about attention and the last point I think is the most crucial one the future of music really is about building this digital native ecosystem look at your kids and how they deal with digital media that is the future where we're going it's all happening in parallel so we need to build an ecosystem that works with that rather than repeat what it used to be so I want to thank you very much for your attention I have an app you can download read more about this use this QR code if you want my website, my new website is at futurewithgird.com and be happy to take some questions if we have a couple minutes we have some microphones or comments or ambush whatever you I'm quite good at a monologue but I would like to have a conversation ok we got somebody we have a brave soul that's good you must be a musician I would like to hear your thoughts about in this era you say the niches king something we see in our daily lives as well but I would like to hear your thoughts about how these if niches king how do a lot of us build these artists a lot of people here have a reality where they have maybe a 60,000 festival or they have a 1500 club etc etc the road from gathering 500 people on your facebook page to our venue reality where we have to buy the tickets is sometimes at best I would like to hear your thoughts on this well we're sort of in this interim period and this is one of the issues that we're having we're between the old world and the new world so basically what's happening is a lot of the stuff that really works is largely a little bit hard to do the gigs are doing it but not enough people are doing it and if you're looking at Spotify or at Youtube they have the same problem it's sort of large but it doesn't make a lot of money yet because a lot of the the crucial pieces are missing for example if you take advertisers many advertisers are not really putting money into mobile or into branding because they're still on television so there's a gap we have the reality here which is digital and the kids and 30% of that is already happening there the reality which is still very much in the going of the old channels but this reality in the next 3 years will catch up we have this huge gap and this is bad news for radio this is bad news for print but it's good news for lots of other things so I think we need to figure out really attractive offerings to break through that and this change has taken time so however if you can just take the example of Youtube you wouldn't argue that Youtube that have a billion users if you would say that Youtube cannot make money with a billion users considering what they do is clearly a question of when not if so and we have to have some imagination to think about the point to where it happens and I think there are some real hardships right now because of this transition phase for example when I worked in music business we got paid by record labels to a large degree and we were getting record contracts and then we were doing gigs and stuff in the US but today it's basically everything has to do with getting exposure on social networks building an audience in a way I think it's fairer that way because it's more Darwinistic it's maybe a little bit harder but it's more real in the end I think that's probably good we have time for one or two questions more there's one here we often discuss when it's time to go home and break up with our local newspaper and stop putting ads in newspapers and putting up posters at the lighting post do I have any advice when it's time to do that step that's a good question how you market and how people read things is largely a cultural question for example in Switzerland where I live people have iPads and mobile phones a lot but they still have the newspaper as well because they're not so sensitive on saving money so I think you have to evaluate what is the right fit for which but clearly now the future isn't going to be printing stuff and shipping it around to promote a gig I mean if you're seeing what's happening and shopping how people shop now e-commerce is going like this and stores are going like this and so you can clearly see that using paper and using traditional media may stick around in certain places for a while but clearly electronic media has overtaken this it's just a question like if you have this thing called what's app do you guys know this app or Viber where you can make free phone calls over your smartphone the reason I use that is because it's free but I can only call you if you also have it and so we're on the same place where we're essentially saying that we need to figure out a way to gain critical mass and then it will work so that's a bit of the challenge there this interim period as I was saying earlier but I think it will only be a matter of say two or three years before that becomes reality and keep in mind of course if you're using a service like social cedar which I was going to show you briefly but it's a service from a friend of mine social cedar.com where you can actually use a social network to meet attention to concerts and live events using people as multipliers this is the kind of thing that we're going to see in the future and it's free it's effective, it's trackable it's affordable, it's direct you know the old saying in the advertising was 50% of television advertising is useless is what one maker said but I don't know which 50 and that's not going to be our future and I have 100% accountability for what you spend on how you get people to show up and to me I think that's a great potential do we have time for another question one last question we talked about this earlier not today but on the last seminar but the thing I still don't understand is obviously it's a very good idea to say the bands or the sponsors but how would the club make money well the concert I've talked about is the concert of a platform so when your club becomes indispensable for a lot of reasons as a location but also as a virtual location and becomes a brand people are going to come even if you don't have a band because this becomes part of what they do because it's just part of it so you go to the Glastonbury Festival not because of the bands I mean that is a little bit of course you want to see the bands you go there for the overall experience I think the solution is to become something that's larger than just a gig or larger than just a ticket and when you can do that I think success is also possible with branding where people say they want to underwrite this kind of brand that you are so I mean there's many examples in the Knitting Factory for example has been very successful in being sort of a brand in this way I think that's not possible for all clubs clearly you know if you're in a small town it may be much easier harder to do I think in general what you see happening is being able to combine the actual physical place with the virtual place it's going to have great potential including broadcasting the shows recording the shows, showing the shows new models with the artist and so on which in many ways have issues like licensing and those kind of things that you all know about so I won't touch on that but that will be resolved I mean in 5 years you're going to be able to tune into a channel and say I'm going to watch this club in South Africa with this band that I really like down there and you put a coin in the box there somewhere but it won't be expensive and you could do that anywhere in the world that you want we just have to figure out a way to sell beers online as well you know the interesting part is that I think with all these things moving online the incentive to go to a real place will actually increase you've seen for example as a result of Guitar Hero which is this awful game that you play with a plastic guitar you know if you're a guitar player you know this is really terrible the result of Guitar Hero was that for 4 years straight in America there was a record sales of guitars so people play this fake game there's a really addictive game and then they figure I want to play a real guitar so don't be worried about virtual things they lead to the real thing in almost all cases well I think this is it thank you very very much that was very inspiring