 Hi guys, it's Ian from OSBFX. It is Wednesday the 22nd of February 2023. It's 8 o'clock in the evening in the UK We've just had the FOMC minutes from the US and we have seen some upside pressure in The US dollar what I want to do in this video. I want to look at the dollar index, which is DXY I want to look at different time frames. We're then going to Reflect that bias back onto the euro against the US dollar and also Sterling against the US dollar. Let's get to the charts going to look at the higher time frames first So this is DXY. This is actually a monthly chart We're then going to break down relevant time frames all the way down into a hourly chart or an intraday intraday chart to highlight some formations that I believe are happening at the moment So these are naked charts. There's no escalators indicators on here. It's just purely price action and what's known as Cypher patterns Cypher patterns often complete and highlight The end of a trend and the start of a reversal bias if you like. So here we've got the monthly chart This is DXY. We can see we've had quite a decent move to the downside from the September 22 high Which was posted at 1 14 68 four months of net losses But we are seeing some upside pressure This month over the long term. It looks like it's going to be quite negative for the US dollar after This move to the upside so Expecting to move to the upside and then this strong reversal. Obviously, this is a monthly chart So maybe the reversal is going to happen sort of in 2024 and 2025 so this is just to give us a picture what we want to do is then break down into shorter time frames to actually get some sort of decent trade setups So that was the monthly chart. I'm going to flick all the way back to the eight hour chart and here We can see that we've had again quite a decent move to the upside this month and then this reversal We posted a bearish outside candle. That's quite negative for sentiment And we've moved to the downside But then we've seen this correction higher and we're actually getting pretty close to this previous swing high Which was located at one oh four thirty three now The reason I'm highlighting this pattern is we've got a Fibonacci Confluence area here at one oh six sixty seven now That would normally highlight that the next move should be to the downside in a BC leg I'm now going to reflect back onto this chart to see where that BC leg could potentially go And we've got a support level Which has been left at one oh one fifty so the immediate bias is slightly bearish from The weekly chart and also the eight hour chart now if we go to the one hour chart This where it gets slightly more complex What we're seeing is inside patterns here So the blue pattern is what's known as a Butterfly or a cipher butterfly Formation and then this yellow pattern is an inside pattern and this is known as a bat formation now The bat formation will normally store 88.6% of this selloff and you can see I've highlighted that With this dashed red line and that comes in at one oh four twenty two now the good thing about these setups are The if this swing high is breached which was at one oh four 34 then this bias or this bearish bias is Invalidated because this pattern is then broken So the risk is quite limited and the potential reward to the downside is quite reasonable Now if we reflect that bias back onto euro dollar, which we're going to do first So we've got a negative or mildly negative bias in the US dollar the dollar index DXY That should give us a bullish bias in the euro against the US dollar Let's go to various different time frames. I think the first time frame Which we should look at is the weekly chart Here we've got a resistance level Located at one ten seventy five and that's quite important when we go back into shorter time frames if we go to the for our chart What we have here is what's known as an ending wedge pattern so an ending wedge pattern Basically has lower lows and lower highs But the move to the downside is starting to lose momentum and if we put a Oscillator on here like an RSI relative strength index or stochastics What we'll be seeing is some divergence which is highlighting this downward move is coming to an end now a break of 106 80 And the measured move for the wedge formation is at 108 04 The good thing about this setup as well keeping an eye on that dollar index If the dollar index breaches that high then obviously this outlook gets invalidated We've got trend line support Located at 105 90 so again thinking about the dollar index We don't really want the euro against the dollar the US dollar to breach this low at 105 90 Probably not going to be a direct move to the upside. I think probably what might happen with some volatility in the US dollar Is possibly something like this so Making a Reverse head and shoulders pattern so this being the left shoulder Hopefully making the head now and then going up to the target level which is 108 04 for the wedge break out And then coming down to form a right shoulder in line with this left shoulder And then over the medium term taking euro against the US dollar to the upside again Going to sterling Against the US dollar slightly different picture Let's go to the weekly chart first So the weekly chart we've got some resistance and it's not far off the last swing high It's actually currently located 124 93 and again making a nice cypher pattern there Giving us a negative bias if and when we get to that resistance level If we look to the eight hour chart Here we've got a similar formation to Euro against the US dollar And the fact that we've got an ending wedge pattern what we have seen is this swing high Which comes in at 121 48 and then we've seen a rejection to the downside in Sterling against US dollar obviously while that dollar strength is seen in DXY We've got a swing low here 1965 could potentially act as support a break of 121 65 and the measured move target for sterling Against the US dollar is located around about 124 the figure So just to reiterate what we've seen in the charts DXY is at a critical level a breach of that swing high and It looks like we'll continue to see some upside pressure in the dollar a failure here and Dollar moves to the downside then we could see Euro dollar sterling dollar break these wedge formations and rally higher Okay, guys. Good luck, and I'll be back soon with some more analysis many. Thanks