 I will present a work that I have just started doing with my colleague Fouad Gdweli from the Morocco National Weather Service. Both of us coming from numerical world, numerical modeling world, and especially on the medium range weather forecast. Now we are making this transition to the subsystem of the time scale. So I will spend a lot of time talking about our understanding of this MGO in our regime and connection. And also I will present some preliminary results of that we have just produced recently. Let me first talk about my country and why we are interested in such connection between MGO and NAU and its effect on precipitation. So Morocco is located in the north-western part of Africa. We are under the influence of the mid-latitude weather systems. We have heterogeneous landscape, we have atlas mountains, we have the Atlantic Ocean in the west, mid-line and north in the desert in the south. And doing with the sun, mid-latitude stones are a major source of precipitation over Morocco, especially the north part. And the north Atlantic large scale circulation has the strong influence on both the weather and climate. Our objective is to see how this migratory north Atlantic disturbance, frontal system with dry stones can influence, impact our rainfall mechanisms and how they are modulated by some large scale patterns. In fact, most rainfall are modulated by north Atlantic jet oscillation from north to south and there is kind of seasonal variability which is controlled by this tropical, extra-tropical oscillation. We want to understand how this tropical, extra-tropical oscillation have an impact our atmospheric dynamics over Morocco. And the last objective is to see how can we forecast the weather, the climate at subsystemal scale, using distilled connection between rainfall and tropical, extra-tropical oscillation. So, as I mentioned before, we are strongly influenced by the north Atlantic oscillation. So in the positive phase, a stronger than normal sub-tropical high pressure and a deeper than usual Icelandic low has an impact of having stronger winter winds and strong activity across the Atlantic Ocean and we have winter, winter and north-east Europe but drier condition in Morocco. And if we are lucky because we need rain in Morocco for agriculture, we end the negative in our is well correlated with wet condition in Morocco. So last part of my talk, it will be based on this very precious work of Kassu. And how it relates each day, how this work attributes each daily anomalous circulation to one of the fourth regimes. So the idea is how can we use this connection between days and regimes, first and second, try to understand what control this transition between different regimes. So the positive and negative in our, they are here as I have mentioned before. So one mechanism that we are interested in in this is this modulating effect of MGU over the occurrence of different regimes. We are very, at the first time when I have seen this interaction between different regimes and different phases of MGU, I have seen that there is a potential to use this information to relate this connection between with regimes and the MGU phases on the rainfall over Morocco. As we have seen before, the negative phase of MGU is, we can have it after 10 days of phase after phase six, okay, as we see here. And largely over phase seven and phase eight, we are in this negative phase of MGU which is good for us to have this wetter condition in perspective. But on the opposite, the positive phase of MGU, six days after phase three, we have this occurrence of, or forcing of a positive negative, positive oscillation for the North Atlantic. According to Christophe Cassaud, generally a positive oscillation, North Atlantic oscillation regimes tend to be preceded by phase three or four of the MGU. On the other hand, negative oscillation tend to be preceded by phase six, seven of the MGU and the Scandinavian blocking tend to be present during phase five, five of MGU. And there is a time scale of the MGU influence, which influence which is about 10 to days. So there is a lagged influence of different phases of MGU on the, with the regimes over our region. So as I mentioned before, the first part of my talk it will be dedicated to this physical mechanism of MGU, North Atlantic oscillation regime connections. So as we have just started dealing with this connection, I present why in, if we have phase three in MGU, we're going to end by having positive oscillation after 10 days. This is the main objects of this part. So as we have seen before, MGU phase, the MGU oscillation, it will force some mostly wave excitation of our, if we are in phase three or phase six, we have kind of dipole. We enhance it, for example, phase three, we have enhanced convection over the Indian Ocean and suppressed convection over the maritime continent. So this dipole will excite some rosy waves. And if we plot here the rosy wave source term, advection term, we see that this dipole has an impact after on the North Atlantic jet stream. So strong rosy wave source in the central Pacific is propagating north eastward. If we try to see what happened in the entrance of the jet stream, of the North Atlantic jet stream, we're going to see that we have related to this rosy wave source that we end up by having a strong upper level convergence on the eastern Pacific and the entrance of the North Atlantic jet. And having also related to this convergence, having this gray condition at the entrance of the jet. Here, in color, we plot the precipitable water, okay, and the auroras show the divergent wind. So here, just at the entrance of the jet stream, we have this strong upper level convergence and we have a gray, gray condition at the entrance of the jet. It means that our strong trucks, they will not have enough supply of humidity at their entrance for the, after some days of MGO phase, in phase three. But on the other hand, source, okay, the rosy wave source advection term, yes. So we see what happened after five days, okay, after having this dipole of MGO phase over the Indian Ocean and the maritime continent. What happens after five days, after zero, five days on this position of the Atlantic jet in this convergence zones? For the MGO in phase six, and it's forcing of the negative North Atlantic regime, North Atlantic constellation regime, we have some kind of opposite effect. So we plot the same thing here as before. So rosy wave source advection term. And what we have now, we have, so we have here, like before, precipitation water, okay, and divergent wind. And here, I have this, plot this mid-latitude or North Atlantic jet. As we can see, we have here the opposite, instead of having this convergence at the entrance and dry conditions, now we have more divergence at upper levels and more supply of moisture, which is good for us because it will enhance five days later or more, a good conditions to have this negative in a well-established. This is how I understand relating to the work of Christopher Castle, this relationship between what happened when we have MGO phase in three and six, and what happened in terms of distribution or configurations, both of water and dynamics over the North Atlantic region, especially at the entrance of the jet. So in a way, this is the bridge with which we have this influence between the tropics and the extra tropics. And we can see it clearly when plotting this, this fields. So to summarize the work of Castle, it's kind of overview of the work of Castle. So as I have said before, MGO in phase three, we trigger for the Rospy waves in the Pacific with phase two and three. To propagate eastward to the North Atlantic region, modifying the background flow leading to North Atlantic oscillation positive due to the interaction with the North Atlantic high frequency plus the intermediate transients. This kind of interaction will have a remote influence for the positive in a well. On the other hand, with phase six in the negative phase and its relationship with the negative phase of in a well, we have a development institute favored by previous blocking conditions as part of this transition that it was mentioned by Laura. So we have kind of preferred transition between the North Atlantic oscillation in positive phase. Afterward, we have Scandinavian blocking and we end up by having a North Atlantic oscillation in its negative phase. So here we can see that we have this direct forcing of positive oscillation. This is what it was mentioned by Christoph Castle. But here the forcing is not direct. We have this transition by the Scandinavian blocking before having the negative phase of the North Atlantic oscillation. So it's kind of response to direct force of the Rospy wave wave as I have mentioned before with this Rospy wave term, excitation term. So the response to direct force of the Rospy wave initiated by MGU in 6.67 in the eastern Pacific associated enhanced moisture leading to this interaction with the North Atlantic high-frequency transient and ending by having what we call cyclonic wave breaking. Yes, it's argued in the paper. So after giving this relationship with MGU in both phases, 3 and 7, and the response over the extra tropics in terms of North Atlantic oscillation, I will show you some results that we have just produced. In fact, we would like to see what happened in terms of precipitation over Morocco related to the MGU oscillation. This is the main objective of this first research work. But we are using a weather station, rain gauges, from the National Weather Service at two stations, one in the extreme north, Tangier, and one in the central part of Morocco near the Atlantic ocean. So how we do? So we work for DGF, it's our winter season, from 85 to 2014. And for each, how the methodology is that for each MGU phase, the number of days in which weekly rainfall was above the upper-terf file is counted and divided by the total number of days in which, in each phase to obtain the occurrence probability of exceeding to the threshold. So the occurrence probability that I will show later is calculated flowing this method. So each phase, we count the number of days in which weekly rainfall was above the upper-terf file. So we have chosen this upper-terf file because it has been mentioned before in other works that is a good threshold for trying to find this oscillation, this relationship between oscillation of MGU and precipitation elsewhere. So it's the same thing for MGU, it is also a running mean, so a running seven-day running mean. Here is the outcome of the first statistics that we have done. So here, for each phase of MGU, the number of days in which weekly weak, moderate, strong in our negative is counted and is divided by the total number of days in each phase to obtain the occurrence probability of exceeding the threshold. The same as before for precipitation, we do it for North Atlantic oscillation in its negative phase. So the weak negative phase is where our index is above the upper-terf file, moderate is between the lower and the upper-terf file, and the strong one is when the negative NO index is below the lower-terf file. So as you see here for MGU, NO relationship with when we have a strong NO, we see clearly that here I have and blue I have phase one and red is phase eight. So here I go from one, from phase one to phase eight. So for strong NO, the event where I have a strong NO, we see that the occurrence of strong NO happen with a great frequency when we have six, seven, eight phases of MGU. So the impact is more clear when picking the strong NO negative events. We have the same thing for the moderate NO, it's in its negative phase. So we have phase six, phase seven and phase eight, which are the dominant here for this moderate NO occurrence. So it's the same. The central histogram is for the strong negative NO, am I right? Yes. It's one, two, three, and then you go up to A, is the NO. Yes. So here it means that with this frequency or this occurrence contribution, it means that in phase eight strong NO, it will occur twice as frequently as its climatological mean with this 100% with 100% it means that in phase eight there is a chance to have strong NO in negative phase twice as frequently as its climatological mean. Black is eight. Black is eight. Green is seven. Oh, okay. Yeah. No. Because yeah, that's important. So black is eight, green is seven, and red is six, and the others one. So we see that for six, seven, eight. We have an increase of the occurrence probability of the negative phase of NO, especially for strong events. So it is in line with what has been found by Christoph and by Haydn. Yeah, yeah. No, it was simply deodorant from eight to 100. So it is clear for everybody here? So we have also been interested to see what happened in terms of occurrence for the Mediterranean Oscillation Index. We have kind of Mediterranean Oscillation Index, which gives a measure of what happened over the Mediterranean in terms of oscillation that is kind of CISO also in terms of pressure between Algiers here and Cairo here. So when we have negative here, we have low pressure here compared to this location in Cairo. We are in this Mediterranean Oscillation in its negative phase. So Mediterranean Oscillation is in negative phase is something that is good also for Morocco because we will have storm or low pressure systems that will enter the north part of Morocco. So we have also tried to find if there is any relationship between the occurrence of this Mediterranean Oscillation and the different phases of MGO, okay? Here it's just to show that there is a CISO between the two regions, okay? Here we correlate Algiers' geopotential heights at 500, okay, with other points. It's just a correlation, okay, between this point with other points, and we see that we have this dipole, okay? It means that we have some kind of oscillation. Mediterranean Oscillation is based on the fact that what happened here in terms of pressure, it may be anti-correlated with what happened here over Cairo. So we have this Mediterranean Oscillation index is a measure of how far in terms of pressure are from Algiers to Cairo. So here when you have a negative phase of MGO, it means that we have here a low pressure system. So high frequency of low pressure systems here will have high pressure system. Cyclonic here and anti-cyclonic here, it means when we have here a cyclonic, it means that we have a chance to have precipitation over Morocco. So there is a kind, in the case, in the case when we have low pressure system here, okay, and when we have here a cyclonic anomalies, and we will have here anti-cyclonic anomalies, it means that we have Mediterranean Oscillation in its negative phase. So this correlation, it just shows that all this region doesn't behave as the same as this one. So we have some kind of oscillation that we may do, that we may measure by having the normalized differential, differential pressure between this spot which is Algiers and this spot which is Cairo. So here we have the same, so the same methodology as before. So we can see here something very special for the strong Mediterranean Oscillation events in negative events. So we see that the blocking, or not the blocking, the phase, in phase 6, okay, we have a high occurrence of strong Mediterranean Oscillation negative, okay, compared to the other phases. In fact, what happened here, it's the same, the behavior here is the same of what happened for what has been found by CASO when we see the blocking regime. So in phase 6, we have a high frequency of blocking regimes. And here in phase 6, we have a high frequency, probability of having a strong Mediterranean Oscillation. This is the message that we can have from this plot. And so of course we have very here reduced occurrence of strong Mediterranean Oscillation in phase 1. So this kind of relationship that we can have also when we try to see this relationship with the MGO and the Mediterranean Oscillation. My explanation why we have this occurrence of strong occurrence or high frequency of Mediterranean Oscillation in its negative phase when we have this phase 6 is in fact related the same finding as Christoph CASO. We have more chance to have negative Mediterranean Oscillation with this transition between, with its transition to the blocking regimes. There is something very important here, in fact in Morocco during my experience as forecaster, I have seen that generally wet conditions over Morocco, they happen especially when I have this transition between the Atlantic Ridge and the blocking Scandinavian blocking system. Something that maybe I will one day present some results on this transition, preferred transition between the Atlantic and the blocking, not preferred, but something that happened to something that is related to precipitation of Morocco. So we will have this chance to have this transition between the Atlantic Ridge and the blocking, there is a chance of having wet conditions over Morocco. Here, this is the main plot of our first result is to see how rainfall in 10 years, so the extreme north of Morocco, so measured from rain gauges from 85 to 2014, how this precipitation relates to the MGU in different phases. We see here, in phase 8, the occurrence probability it increased to have a precipitation that exceeds the upper terfile. Is it good? Is it fine because we have this relationship between negative Inau and phase 7 and 8. So we can find the explanation why we have this increase between when we have this phase 7 and 8, why we have this increase of the occurrence of precipitation exceeding this upper terfile. But for phase 2, up to now we don't have any explanation. The same thing for this second station, we have the same signal, so over the same period, we have a very distant location, so again it is in the central part of Morocco, near the Atlantic Ocean, so we have the same signal in phase 2. So there may be something behind this preferred occurrence of high of precipitation exceeding the upper terfile in phase 2. And here I will say thank you to Engel because before coming to here, I didn't find any explanation why we have this increase of occurrence of probability of occurrence in phase 2 because I don't have a negative Inau to explain why I have this increase. In fact, the idea is that over our region, over the Oro Mediterranean region, the four regions are not enough to explain what happened in terms of weather types. That's why using the precious tool of Engel, I have produced another extra weather type, which is what's missing for our region of interest. So here we can see the Inau in its negative phase, okay, is weather type 5. We can see in weather type 4 the blocking, the Scandinavian blocking, so it's the same. Here they are similar, these two plots, two maps. Here we have kind of similarity between a positive Inau and the winter type number one. And here I have two patterns or two weather types that are different. Okay, this one, the weather type 2 is, it can explain something for me, for this relationship between phase 2 and what happens in terms of precipitation. Here also, I plotted the same, with the same tool of Engel, the occurrence, the probability of having phase 1, of having the weather type 1 in different phases, so it's the first plot here for weather type 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. As you see in phase 6, 7, 8, we have an increase of the probability, occurrence probability of weather type 5, which is close to negative Inau, so it supports, it does support the finding that we have before. In phase, in phase 7, 6, 7, 8, we have more frequency of negative phase of Inau. This is the third result. So it supports all the finding of Caso, Christoph, A and H. This is the first result. The second one, here, when MGO is in its phase 3 and 4, we increase the probability of occurrence of weather type 2, of weather type, sorry, 1, which is similar to the positive North Atlantic oscillation, so it is in line with the finding of Christoph and H. So it's fine. Here there is something new. So in phase 2, we see that this weather type is more frequent compared to the others. And also, it is favorable, it's a weather type that is good for having the precipitation of Morocco, because we have here a negative anomaly of geopotential height at 500 HPA. So we have now found a relationship between these extreme events, not extreme, but a high amount of rainfall observed over 10 years in the Aegean year that are related to a weather type, which was not present in the classical classification of weather types over the North Atlantic region. We found this with this new weather type, which is more favorable to have a weather condition over Morocco when we have phase 2. I think it's a good result for me here at ICTP. Thank you again, Angel, for your tools. To summarize, so doing our own work with our own data, we have found similar results with CASO. We confirmed the finding of CASO and LEAN. Doing this new classification or new clustering method over the Euro Mediterranean region, we came up with the new weather type, which explained the increase of precipitation over Morocco, both in the North and the South, in phase 2. And as ongoing work, we are now using more languages data to confirm this relationship between what happened in phase 2 and the Euro Mediterranean weather types. Thank you very much.