 Okay, welcome next to the panel on green finance. I see one of the Panelists is also here, so please the other panelists welcome to join already in the in the chairs But I'll introduce you then one by one before your opening statement, but let me first say so I'm a silky wall. I've had every search in the research unit of the Bank of Finland and will be chairing So green finance is potentially a hugely important new area of finance for both practitioners and researchers alike Ability to use financial instruments and contracts to facilitate transition towards net-zero world could be one of the keys to the Solving the climate change problem or challenge. We have three excellent researchers in the panel on this topic Who will offer their insights from the vantage point of cutting-edge research? While the general goals of green finance are indeed laudable a Closer look makes it obvious that as is often the case Devil can be in the details, so it matters a great deal How financial instruments are designed and what kind of supporting institutional arrangements are available? So this is why also research on the topic is so important So let me now turn to the To the panelists So I thought that each of and probably have been advised already before that Each of you would have five minutes maybe ten minutes for your opening statements and Then we will discuss including questions from the audience So as the first speaker Let me introduce Amir Lebdu from the School of Oriental and African Studies London So prior to joining SOAS Amir has worked as a fellow at the London School of Economics and Let the canning house research forum on the future of trade in Latin America He was also an affiliated lecturer in development studies at the University of Cambridge where he also did his PhD and if I forgot something important from your bio, please feel free to add and correct Yourself, but welcome Amir and The floor is yours. Would you like to come here or maybe well you have the mic so it's up to you Please go ahead Thanks. Well, it's it's an absolute pleasure to To be with such with you and you know such experts today discuss the important topic of sovereign debt and Green finance in developing countries the specific. Thank you The specific issue that I wanted to Focus on our address was the context of resource dependence Economies, which is particularly important considering that two-thirds of the developing world are resource dependent countries And the three main messages that I wanted to share In the ten minutes that we have allocated the first one is that resource dependent countries are particularly vulnerable right to the risks of climate-induced Debt distress The second one is even in the context of a low-carbon future These countries are not geared towards benefiting from the so-called green windows of opportunity right there by Cushioning or improving their their climate resilience because of the uneven nature of the industrial geography of decarbonization and The third message was that we need to rethink Green finance mechanisms And the standard policy advice which has too often emphasized short-term fiscal stabilization But at the expense of the financing needed for long-term structural transformation to improve fiscal resilience to climate change So Similarly to to Ugo, we both have different maps To support our our arguments. So here I just wanted to show you three maps the first one Showing that you know the overwhelming majority of the developing world is dependent on commodities right whether mining our culture of fossil fuels and a few points to stress and and that really kind of I think Echoes nicely the message that we just heard on who's the most exposed but here we are showing that those countries that are you know dependent on agriculture as a source of exports revenues and jobs are Particularly vulnerable because agricultural productivity in the agriculture agricultural sector Is a vulnerable to fluctuations in temperature fluctuation temperature fluctuations and precipitations in the long term but also in the short term and it's already happening to Increasingly frequent meteorological events, right? So just in the past few years cyclones hurricanes droughts These had massive fiscal effects on countries including in the Caribbean in in in sub-Saharan Africa in Latin America Where crops were destroyed and associated revenues with it? Last year alone in it's estimated that climate change Generated losses of about 38 billion dollars on the African continent But even the countries that depend on fossil fuels right this estimated that by the ILO About 50% of jobs in fossil fuel extraction and fossil fuel based generation will be lost by 2030 So what does it mean for not only the job? So also, you know kind of the countries that depend on those as a source of fiscal revenues and On the other side when thinking I mean it's becoming more and more obvious That with global decarbonization comes a range of benefits right and very often the benefits outweighs the loss In so-called dirty industries not only in terms of jobs, right? So investing in renewables create more jobs than investing the same amount in fossil fuels Also in terms of innovation that higher speedover is from low carbon innovation than for conventional technologies But the problem here is that those benefits are not really happening in the same places We have a lot of the fiscal distress caused by climate change Right, so we have three four countries that concentrate about three quarters of Job creation around renewables and that's not even considering the issue of quality of jobs Right, this is just a quantity or even in countries like Brazil the problem Is that most of the job created around renewables are low-skilled low-paid temporary jobs right and construction maintenance and There's a similar story Not just in jobs both in terms of innovation in terms of trade and manufacturing, right? three four countries concentrate the bulk of the benefits on that front and One thing that I also wanted to show in terms of even when it comes to Financing for new technologies including green hydrogen The structure in which those commercial networks are planned Generate a high risk of renewing all dependencies right and especially the resource dependencies I just mentioned earlier so in terms of raw minerals critical materials are needed as inputs of low-carbon technologies But even when it comes to hydrogen It's kind of through produces this pattern of exporting that source of energy towards industrial hubs Which leads me to then you know the oops sorry to the point on How do we have rethink? Green financing mechanisms in resource dependent countries and particularly fossil fuel dependent countries the stand policy of Standard policy advice has focused on you know fiscal stabilization mechanisms, especially through sovereign wealth funds But with work that we're doing with Tony we're finding that These mechanisms very often don't really prepare countries what comes next right and don't really address the bigger issues Which is the fact that their productive structures are the reason why they're so vulnerable To climate change and why they're not really able to capture some of the gains of global decarbonization So in a way it might be more suitable to also think about alternatives, right including national development banking and green national development banking as a way to generate the financing that is needed to To increase local resilience of jobs industry and and so on So besides the market-based mechanisms that I think we're addressed today The emphasis there is really thinking about at the domestic level But also international level about how to really rethink productive structures and that link with long-term sovereign debt Outcomes and at the international level my last message. How am I doing with time? Fine. This is the last message. He's also thinking about at the moment most of the international financing or green financing developing countries tends to focus on You know country producing that extraction right of raw materials and it's becoming very obvious And that's a message that you know has been shared clearly by people like Carlos Lopez and and and his colleagues at the Africa Climate Foundation that there is a role for international investors and and financiers to Link those investments and green green finance with Sorry, that's my alarm We all wake up in different moods With an agenda of you know opening up pathways for green Industrialization and African policy makers would be a lot more Interested in this type of investments that are not kind of reproducing those patterns, but also enabling To link, you know the kind of dilemma the climate agenda with the local industrial development agenda. So I Will end on that note and look forward to the discussion Okay, thank you very much. I made it So we could go then straight to the next Speaker who is Anthony Bartsogas a professional Professorial fellow at the United Nations universities a mass strict economic and social research Institute on innovation and technology Anthony has worked on financial systems corporate investment and innovation Dynamics particularly he also Has obtained real-life exposure to investment decisions and financial markets during his tenure as executive board director at the European Bank for Reconstruction and and development. So very happy to have you With us today Anthony. So please thank you, sir What I would like to do today is to talk about green finance and green innovation And we have been asked to stick to two slides. That's what I'm going to do Basically what I would like to do is to start from operational experience and See if we can draw some interesting implications for policy, but also research So it will be a practical presentation more from a private sector perspective So I will highlight a few points on green finance and a few points on green innovation Indeed the relevance between the two Let me start with green finance Basically, I would like to convey a few concrete messages the first message is that We keep talking about green finance in terms of green bonds. I Will urge the audience here, but also the policy community to look more on say low profile below the radar applications energy efficiency Trade finance are very important issues Related to green finance. We tend to overlook them and this is a mistake a mistake for policy makers, but also research My second point is about green bonds and how it's connected to commercial markets If we look at what happened in the last 20 years of the expanding use of green bonds Something very interesting emerges and that is the relevance to commercial market trends The most important is scale Green bonds have been facing a threshold to say 500 million and Beyond that below that it is very difficult to activate them Similar issues we can raise of other aspects of commercial markets related to green bonds Now let me come to the area of what I have been doing the last 10 years, which is development finance Development finance institutions have played a very important role in the diffusion of green finance products First in the below the radar applications as I mentioned before but also in terms of green bonds first when Critical stages of the market were in place. They stepped in but also I would say looking forward The development finance institutions have been playing a prominent role of stamp of approval And as the market becomes more critical about impact the presence of Development finance institutions in structure and bring green bonds becomes even more important And this is something that we need to keep in mind Two final points on the green finance dimension My first point is about international coordination It is very important to have global banks But also all of global players at the table in a kind of global coordination context Because spillovers can come anytime and that can undermine and disengage from a green finance mandate and and process My final point is I come back to what Kunal was saying at the beginning If indeed depth markets are moving in the direction that we all know then we need to prioritize green finance Processes but also policy initiatives because the market will become more difficult and you know, these guys will pay the price Now let me turn to the innovation side green innovation I think if we are serious about the paris agreement, we need to talk and carefully study Green innovation patterns. They are not very promising They keep moving in say the end user perspective But more fundamental innovation is not you know, progressing the way that we would like to see The point I would like to make Is the following If we think of green innovation in a kind of nexus from green finance to green innovation I think we are making a mistake Because the whole process is about a triangle It's about risk capital green finance and green innovation And we should be looking at this triangle in a kind of holistic view if we want really to produce decent policy recommendations Is this relevant to developing countries? Is this relevant to emerging countries? I think it is because Whatever resources developed countries will invest on r&d We need to have say complementary activity innovation related activity in developing countries and this is a very important dimension Is there a role for development finance institutions in this process? I think there is and we need to move from You know development finance objectives as a scale priority to development finance Priorities and policy objectives as a quality priority By quality, I mean that they can step in and you know engage and trigger the Risk side of the triangle that I was mentioning before My final point here is is about Intermediate that bridge technologies If we did start thinking about green innovation as part of this triangle of green finance risk capital and green innovation In the middle, we have You know the need to better understand at the sectoral level what a bridge technology what the immediate Technologies for a developing country Take for example gas and other applications that you know african countries have been you know protesting about We need to understand What kind of solutions are practically important for these countries to what extent innovation can play a role in this process And how we'll finance this process in this entirety I'll stop here and i'm happy to take you know further Discussion on this on this issue in the qna Thank you, sir. Okay. Thank you very much Anthony and Then uh We have Shakira Mustafa Welcome You are from the overseas development institute ODI london Shakira is an economist with expertise across a range of Public finance issues including budget and expenditure management and debt management earlier She has worked with the ministry of planning and the ministry of trade and industry in trinidad and tobago Supporting various public finance reforms and the development of economic diversification strategies Shakira holds a master's degree in public and economic policy from the LSE So Shakira Welcome in the florida's Can you guys hear me? Yeah Amir, this is the first time I saw a map and so trinidad and tobago on the map So thank you very much for that for that recognition decide being a dot Um maps. I can't take the credit. You presented it. So thank you So good morning all. Um, it's my pleasure to be here today making my first debut Uh presentation post-covid. It's all been zoom since then. So apologies. I'm a bit rusty um So originally when I was asked to participate in this panel I was like, oh, I'm going to talk about that for that for climate swaps Then I saw I was following ugo and I said and I thought ugo is going to say everything interesting already So what next could I say? And then I saw Amir's presentation and I was like, oh There's some brilliant work that we've been doing at ODI On country platforms now. I'll explain what that is But it's a new it's basically an innovative model for providing and delivering climate finance from developed countries to developing countries now For those who have heard about it or how haven't At last year's cop in glass school The just energy transition partnership Uh from south africa was the crown jewels This partnership was um, which is known as jet pee for short It represented the first step towards creating a country platform for climate action In these 10 minutes I'll explain what exactly is the jet pee What is a country platform? How are the two related and ultimately why are they important? I draw heavily on the ODI paper written by my colleagues and me For country platforms or climate action something borrowed something new Of course 10 minutes is not enough to cover the entire entire paper And for those who are interested I strongly recommend reading it So what exactly is uh The south african just energy transition partnership Well, it's a partnership between the governments of south africa And a handful of g7 countries Specifically the uk us france germany and the eu With the latter forming the international partners group This group of international actors have pledged Uh an initial 8.5 billion to support the government of south africa to decarbonize this energy sector Apologies i'm recovering from a flu. It's not covid. Yeah. Yeah So what is noteworthy about jet pee is that it's a mutually beneficial partnership That links domestic political priorities On the right hand side of the slide in south africa their priority is job Creation economic growth the unemployment rate is one of the highest about 32 percent of 32 last year It also on the other side of the table is international climate goals specifically the paris temperature goals This jet pee intends to link both of them in a very direct and explicit way For the international community Given that south africa is one of the world's most carbon intensive electricity producers Helping the south african government to accelerate the retirement of its coal fired power plant Can gen can be a step in the right direction for reaching these temperature goals From the point of view of the south african government This partnership enables them to push through critical reforms to transform the country's electricity sector In order to improve its reliability and cost effectiveness in a just manner Currently as you may be aware the sector is weird on by a heavily indebted state owned power company escom That frequently relies on bailouts from the from the government I think last year was about 1 percent of gdp while the net losses of escom about 0.4 percent of gdp So on top of that electricity tariffs are rising and there are frequent power outages Because of this the sector itself is a huge impediment to growth in south africa However, while the reforming the electricity sector has been a priority for the government It's been complicated by the country's long-standing dependence and cold What this means is that there's a lot of patronage systems and jobs that heavily depend on cold revenues The partnership therefore represents a window of opportunity for the south african government Providing a potential catalyst to enable key interventions in support of more rapid decarbonization The idea being that how a lot of international public finance Will be helped to compensate and support the losers from the early retirement of the coal power plants Many of the details of the gdp are still in the process of being developed With the south african government and the international partner groups currently drafting the investment plan As well as the related financing package, which to be honest is going most likely going to be concessional and non-concessional loans From what i've heard the it's going to be released at cop 27 But a vision has already been leaked as these things happen And in this plan it says it outlines different rules for public and private sector funding The jet p financing package presents an opportunity for mdbs and dfis to experiment with novel financial mechanisms Reacting to pressure to take action against climate change Global policymakers have urged mdbs and dfis to take greater risk in their clean energy investments in emerging economies What does this mean right is that dfis and mdbs need to Aim to develop and create investment opportunities rather than just investing in near market ready opportunities This requires greater focus and pipeline development pioneering demonstrating investments and early stage investments, which in turns Requires greater use of high risk capital Ultimately dfis to be part of this To be to make a significant impact on this transition. They need to change what where and how they invest While the jet p is still in the process of being operationalized in south africa This announcement has raised hopes of similarly ambitious deals being struck at other carbon intensive emerging economies vietnam, india and indonesia As well as for other aspects of climate action such as adaptation and resilience What i want to emphasize is while there may be scope and appetite for these similar deals Is neither feasible nor recommended for the south african deal to be copy and pasted across countries These partnerships are country-driven and rely on highly individualized consultations Between host nation leaders and partner governments At the same time The the jet p and south africa's emerging platform Highlights some key features and functions that are likely to be desirable across country platforms What did i do the slide? Oh, sorry right so In broad terms a country platform is a government led Multi-stakeholder partnership that is used to attract and coordinate international public finance in support of common goals More simply, but it's a vision of how International cooperation on development and climate change could or should be organized at the country level There are three common functions that a country platform inspired by the jet p model is expected to perform First it needs to coordinate national politics and international interests behind a shared plan of goal Second it needs to align international concessional finance behind that shared plan And third it needs to develop a genuine step change. Sorry develop a genuine step change in climate action But you know that sounds great, right? But what path is more important is how will a platform actually do this? First it will need a credible credible political agreement between the host government And international partners to address an issue of shared concern This provides the basis for national policy response And for the international community to release significant additional resources to accelerate the necessary reforms The political agreement essentially Signals commitment and unlocks financing Second it requires a programmatic approach to financing to target a pacific problem This requires having a credible plan effective coordination structures and a meal a means to pull financing from different donors Is it hope that the halving this in place? It will help to avoid the incoherence and high transaction costs that currently characterizes the most A majority of the climate finance landscape Third it would involve strategic support to tackle barriers holding back projects and finance for private sector investments in low carbon and clean energy projects A country platform forced up by South Africa's Ames to shift parts of the economy until a less compared um less carbon intensive or more climate resilient trajectory This requires scaling up private sector investment in clean energy and other climate solutions MDBs and DFI's are not responsible for changing domestic policies And their investments are likely to have little impact without corresponding energy sector regulatory reform In South Africa's case, it's very clear that the success success. Ah, sorry the achievement of jet pee Hinges on domestic reforms that maximizes the effect of public spending and induces the flow of private capital I would like to conclude with one related point And that's that is that It's 8.5 billion Given the size of South Africa's economy their revenues It's a small a relatively small amount Um, I think escom itself estimated that it requires 27 27 billion to kick start to shift away from coal fire generation In coming years a South African university estimated that to create a clean energy infrastructure The government needs 250 billion over the next three decades The significance of jet pee is not its size But the substance it's an investment plan And accompanied by a set of corresponding response reforms that South Africa must implement to maximize the packages impact And ultimately that is hoped by doing this that it will help to create a pipeline for private sector investment A recent IMF study noted that for the South Africa the greatest obstacle to transforming its energy sector Has been insufficient reform rather than a lack of finance and for me the jet pee It's therefore a step in the right direction It's it's a new a new approach and yes that involves risk But the status quo needs to change and that that's that's an attempt to do this. Thank you So we are Soon ready to move to uh the qna also with the uh audience But while you are possibly still thinking about your question, so let let me start by uh one myself to all of you if you wish to Uh expressive view so what I often hear in the context of green finance and uh To reallocating investor capital from browner to to greener uh project so The the question is the quality of information available something like ratings that could measure the The the degree of uh greenness of of uh Investments and so on so what's your view? In this regard and of course this is something that could vary a lot in different parts of the world so How how far are we with this? What are the challenges what should be done? Are you happy with the situation or not? Who would like to start I'm sorry perhaps I Think there are two aspects in this problem in a way One is the financial aspect and then the second one is the impact aspect Because you know If we are talking about green finance and investment from a green finance perspective Even the financial aspect could have some weaknesses For the banker who is assessing the whole process And then at the end of the pipeline you have the interested parties who look at the impact of this process Is there a way to tackle this information asymmeters and these problems? I think there is a role for regulators In the way the whole situation is being monitored But there is also a role for you know peer interaction Because especially when we have banks global banks involved in complex transactions We need to look at green finance in a kind of holistic view it's just it just Not the product itself It's a network of transactions that is evolving through this process So I'm very skeptical about the current criticism about impact investment If we are measuring correctly and all that because it it's really about the surface And it's not going below that to the real problems of How you can assess green finance from an impact perspective So I would say There is a role for the regulators to trigger a more in-depth analysis of green finance My point wouldn't be so much on that so you mentioned a level of readiness for the several investments, but I was gonna turn more towards the side of Readiness in in different ways apart besides, you know credit ratings and so on but readiness in terms of local skills Infrastructure and so on and going to the team of industrial policy But I don't know if this is maybe for another question or worth it now so the part I'm Mostly interested in is the kind of discussion around green industrial policy, right besides the Alongside market-based mechanisms, but this is the way to ensure that those kind of transitions are not only about You know feasibility but also fairness and politically attractive and In many developing countries the big challenge is not just deploying renewables because in many ways Especially in Latin America, right a renewable age deployment has been A lot more successful than in Europe or North America and most other parts of the world, right? But the challenge is how to make sure That this type of investment that the type of financing is one that actually generates Local value and multiplier effects So in that sense, I think that there is a lot of work to do In terms of you know kind of local readiness in terms of skills preparation because to see green industries That create green jobs require green skills to be able to capture those jobs And a lot of clarity of information sharing and vision right in terms of how those investments Are integrated with the rest of the country So I think a case that comes to mind Namibia, right, which has a very ambitious green hydrogen plan Financing that seems to be available for it. But the whole question that arises How is this connected with the rest of the economy and people who actually suffer from energy access gaps, right? Thanks So I mean the concept of a just energy transition. It's not Something that's fixed or defined, right? So I think That's why for South Africa a key part of this partnership is doing the investment plan So that people will have an idea of this is what we in South Africa think a just energy transition is This is what the areas of potential of projects Will be and this is what you know, we want to match different financing too So I think information is very key that that signaling of you know, we have a Pipeline or we have an idea of a pipe what a pipeline will look like I mean some banks and some actors have said we're not going to finance cool at all But what about to transition and that transition financing? It's it's it's less Short right and I think there's apricot and there's a rule for information to shape of what that what what transition looks like And how it should be financed Okay Great. Thanks So now Questions from the audience, please I think there was a Please and you can now introduce yourself also briefly. Thank you. All right. All right. Thanks So much. My name is Michael Duncan from UNU wider Just a bit of Follow up. I am very much interested in your what you call the views on a green finance and the new growth path for low income Countries what are your thoughts on that because I mean there's that fact that That the the wrong material footprints for For many of these low income countries Have been going up Over that over time It's it has its own implications on On the carbon what you call this sinks right the forest reserves and you know on and on so clearly the need to Look into the new growth path Look into new jobs be it's blue or Well, a green or whatever if you have any thoughts on that that'd be good. Thanks thank you I would like to start I would like to offer a couple of comments first comment. I think Predictability is very important Because when you talk to bankers The first issue they will raise at this point at this junction of time would be predictability I mean they would argue that because of geopolitical reasons told that all the agenda about green is being redrafted So, you know, we need to Introduce some predictability in order to have decent financial decisions. This is the first thing when it comes to specifically Developing countries and least developed countries. I would argue for the low level energy efficiency and green finance solutions Because this is something that the international community keeps ignoring I think it's You know if you look at it from the appropriate technology point of view It makes a lot of sense and we need to emphasize more and allocate more resources and capacity on that Let me add one other point which is related also to the previous question when it comes to policies for green transition I think Capacity to upstream investment projects is very important at the country level Especially for least developed countries and this is something that we need to you know put up front in a way Thanks so Yeah, to answer a question. Maybe two more specific things in terms of new green financing Mechanisms, so I mentioned earlier the role of national development banks Right and nowadays you see a switch in some countries where national developing banks in developing country take a proactive role In providing green financing needed to scale up Right green projects and and localizing national benefits So brazil has an interesting case right with b and ds who play the key role in actually Can take a lot of the credit for the successful Emerging wind turbine manufacturing sector right where they were providing competitive credit or competitive rates below market rates for For bits that had higher local content around, you know wind energy projects and the other side is You mentioned kind of blue green economy one Some work that I do is on Biodiversity based innovation So obviously as part of a green transition It also implies that a lot of the world's remaining biodiversity Which is in the developing world would need to be protected right and to date this is something from the whole world Benefits from right clean air carbon capture services watershed services, but no one really pays for it And in that context there are new Financing mechanisms that have emerged including payments for ecological services right where governments pays land owners who adopt Sustainable first tree management techniques, but the problem is they still remain at the government level right? It's not the international community that often pays for these services sometimes, but and the other side is that biodiversity has a lot of value ecological value, but also as value as a source of innovation and information For as a source of information and inspiration for innovation And very often that value is being captured in a handful of countries right in north america europe east asia And not necessarily locally. So if we kind of rethink about The different ways to to to localize some of the value of those green assets through blue or green economy measures It's a different way to generate funding and financing for for the green transition Thanks Yeah, fine. Okay. Thank you. I think Kunal had a question there, please I had a question. So i'm Kunal sent it Of any wider and a question amir and a question for Shakira that's a lot from a lot of two questions But amir the question about industrial policy green industrial policy So we look at the past the history of industrial policy It's a very mixed record. So east asia did pretty well with industrial policy, but latin america africa south asia did very Pretty poorly. There may be exceptions So but and therefore my question is that given the green industrial policy needs more information requirements Of selecting winners exactly as we heard from you go in the morning How can we show that green industrial policy can avoid the mistakes that happen in past industrial policy? That you pick winners without knowing exactly the question of where the investing how do we check what they're investing and so on Um, which is what's always a problem with the past industrial policy There will be more of a problem with green industrial policy And so do we really want to get to a situation where with green industrial policy We see the same problems of cronyism And and state capture and so on which we have seen many examples of that in in in the past So my question is can give us the green industrial policy really work Shakira my question is back to what you said to south africa and it really poses very interesting challenges that I was facing that they're shutting down gold Plants and they think about the new renewable energy But then this question I have is that what about those workers in those coal-fired plants or in one part of south africa We're going to lose their jobs in in near future who are of a particular demographic group. They're fairly old They are skilled in particular in the industry which will not be cannot process some other industry What can we think about in this just in a just transition for those who will be losing out How do we compensate them? Are and how can we make sure that this doesn't become a political cost for countries going to this kind of transition? So my question is that I think What are the political implications of just any energy transition we need to think about in in the future? Thank you. So we start with Shakira on two questions potentially To steal your your question, but like I've been looking at green industrial policy as well and to me the problem with past countries and industrialization is that What they have the challenge is also when you realize you have a loser How do you stop supporting the loser? So how do you create those systems and checks and balances and and retain that autonomy of you're working closely with the private sector? But that doesn't stop you from withdrawing support when it doesn't work But I'm sure Amir will get into that in more detail. Um, the workers in south africa. I mean, yes The concept of the just energy transition is just Right, but the investment plan I'm I haven't seen it as yet. I'm looking forward to see to see what exactly what this social justice component is Because that's the idea right that there are winners and losers and how do you how do you compensate these losers so that It reduces vessels in interest and this could actually have a chance of progressing and Some people might be able to be retrained Some people might be compensated through social protection mechanisms Uh, who's but some people will fall through the cracks and it's a very important question and I haven't seen the proposal as yet and something I'm really looking forward to seeing. Hopefully a cop Uh, I will say like the world is looking on right because every india indonesia vietnam We they want to know. Okay. How did you actually do this and most importantly? They're the international community provide you with grants to help you cover these things that the private sector won't do That you can't borrow for because that's not going to generate returns to repair those loans So it's I think it's a big unknown right now, but it's a key part of the of the partnership and we need to we Expect to see more about me writing more about it very soon No, thanks canal. This is a very important question So in many ways we are witnessing a green revival of industrial policy right nowadays Rising from the increasing acknowledgement That those policy tools are needed to To address climate change because they're kind of changing consumption in regards also changing of productive structures And even in the u.s. Now the term industrial policy is being acknowledged for the first time in decades But it's only in the context of climate change, right? It's uh, it's about solar cells and so on and green industrial policy in many ways, you know, it's Industrial policy, you know in the context of low carbon sectors Including similar tools, but not always, but you're right that some of the old issues of industrial policy It would be a lie to say that they don't exist anymore. And I think we see that in the practice of it Uh, many countries, uh, especially in the african context when they've adopted green industrial policies It tends to be limited to local content requirements for solar panels And in many ways that's probably one of the worst types often green industrial policies that could yeah that you could do Because I mean, it's very difficult to export solar panels It's a very competitive market and the technology is also changing so fast that you become at risk of technological obsolescence And there's been research showing that from about 30 countries that have implement implemented local content requirements in solar cells Only two have managed to export them right china and spain and these are countries that leverage pre-existing capabilities in different sectors Especially electronics towards solar cells And the other issue is that you know, not all green industrial policies are necessarily green Right because we think about the carbon footprint, but then there's the whole problem of material footprint It's not just about producing more things However, despite those limitations Um, it's important to not throw the baby with the bad factor, right? And there are many ways in which green industrial policies not only necessary To move forward with low carbon production and and and innovation But in many ways it's about sharing benefits more equally right ensuring that countries that are resource dependent Who cannot export the same products that they're exporting now In 20 30 years because of consumer demand or because of climate agendas that they have something else To to to produce and and and other sources of foreign exchange And the other thing to remember is that the risks still exist right in terms of there are ways to mitigate them And I think some things we can learn from history in terms of performance requirement Learning how to fail right and from from previous mistakes and adapting and monitoring and evaluation But still it's true that there are always risks, but it's important to remember that the costs of not doing it Are higher than the risks of industrial policy because you see that for resource dependent countries You know the future with the status quo is very clear right and it's extremely bleak Thank you. Anthony, would you like to add something? You're fine. Thank you. I think we had a question At least there in the middle. So, uh, yeah That's right. Yes Yeah, it's coming Uh, thank you so much for for three great presentations The politics are much more important than this right We just need to think about you know Europe the farmers in the Netherlands the truckers I'm a cyclist in North America the truckers in Canada as like they've you know, they've traumatized us, right? And this is this the trucker started with You know the concerns about the the the oil industry in western Canada, right? So the politics are absolutely important The reason I'm saying is the research that we produce is it's really important to take account of that right because we're fighting Misinformation the fact that you're fighting this politics. So it's so it's really important I actually had a very specific question is completely different to to Anthony I was very glad that you raised the issue of it's a great presentation The issue of technology then the finance of technology and you you mentioned patents And I was just wondering if you have any idea whether the the intellectual property regime that we currently have if we think back to the You know the worst disaster that we've seen around the vaccines How how that was was monopolized almost monopolized And did not did not was publicly funded, but not did not become a public good Whether you think that that plays any role in in in the need of green technologies and whether this is a topic of research I'm looking at that now, right a topic of research that perhaps we should integrate into those discussions. Thank you I have a longer slide there with some Slides on patents and all that and I'm happy to share From that set of slides what emerges is that When it comes to green innovation We have seen a plateau since you know 2010 and the People who try to explain this this trend in a way. They say it's primarily because of Market trends because they see that green innovation is Going down But it has stabilized and increases slightly when it comes to end user And there the example they give is the electrical car Because you know a market was there it was booming and innovation was pulled in in a way So that will be my you know my answer to to your question And I'm happy to share the slides we you know demonstrator Would you have any used that here You're fine. Thank you Please Hello, Sarah again and with two questions again. I'm afraid So the first one is to Amira and Shakira It was really great to hear you speaking about the jobs because the political economy of this is so it's so key um It actually reminded me of the story in the late 2000s where China sent a delegation over to Germany to ask advice on managing the transition out of coal And they found that Germany only had 20 000 workers in coal and the delegation went home because they have 5.3 million people To get out of coal jobs, which is coincidentally the population of Finland um, so the the first question to Builds on what Kunal was asking about green industrial policy to Amira and Shakira, which is to say what are you Even if you've got a green industrial policy, right? Uh, what are the real prospects for low and lower middle income countries to get on to those supply chains now? Given that the us and the eu are setting up these protectionist arrangements with the inflation reduction act in the green deal The china dominates markets and india is trying to do the same domestically Is there a real chance for a mozambique or or an indonesia to be a part of that story? Um, and the second question is to anthony It was really great to hear you speak about a wider range of finance instruments for climate change and s goes for energy efficiency and so on um, and I wanted to explore an idea that hasn't been mentioned today Which is that the conversation about debt for climate seems to be about debt for real world emission reductions or increases in solar and so on I wonder if there's a is there a scenario that you can see where debt or other instruments that you mentioned Can be linked to changes in spending so debt in return for fossil fuel subsidy reform Increases in carbon pricing. Are those mechanisms used elsewhere? Could they be transferred to the climate space? Thank you very much Thank you. So maybe we start with anthony, please yeah, my my short answer is yes, because That's why I argue that we need to understand better the mechanics Of how these policies and initiatives are being implemented and then we can build say the data sets that are related to efficiency in these processes and then you can link it into two transactions in a way Because take for example energy energy efficiency. They think you discussed before If you go to real life, we have interesting policies being implemented at the bank level They have data monitoring how effective these policies are So you can link this this performance in a way to whatever instrument you want to structure So my idea is that when you start from below the rather low profile green finance potential applications There you have already platforms that have been implemented You have data demonstrating to what extent something works or not and then you can link it to you know Transactions in the market in a way And that's this is the way to leverage real-life facts with you know forward-looking markets in a way Thanks Thanks for your question Sarah So basically in the context of low And low and low middle-income countries and how to address the question of jobs and green industrial policy there still You're right that policy space is constrained in many ways However, there are still like new Different types of opportunities for these countries, but you know with with caveats I think one of the big issues that I think you're hinting on Is the fact that something that is happening with it's happening in different sectors But in low-income and sectors in particular the rate of innovation is very fast And there's so much uncertainty regarding which technologies are actually going to scale up and which ones might not And in that context is very difficult for developing countries to Localize some of the supply chains, right? Even though there are attempts, but even when it comes to Lithium ion batteries There's so much resources being put into batteries that use different supply chains that are not with lithium But hydrogen based batteries or phosphate based and same with solar panels and and many other technologies So I think but my opinion is that when it comes to those kind of Industries Developing countries, especially those with lower capacity or those where you know each there is a high opportunity cost of those investments They might be better or safer investments downstream as opposed to upstream because you don't want to localize you know the supply of goods and services for Particular technologies and then the technology changes in 10 years and same with hydrogen right electrolyzing technology Is it changing, you know? Very fast But when it comes to once you have let's say a source of cheap Clean and reliable energy It opens up many different areas some of which we know about but some of those we don't even know yet What will be the next opportunities that includes technology services, right? There are technology intensive And that can be localized if you already provide this kind of Energy and where energy is the most impulsive expensive input But also things like green steel green aluminium And then second point related for countries like was ambiguous said Is the whole thing about transportation that links to your point about information and data sharing So far in investment decisions The emissions from transportation are not always fully understood or taken to account But in many ways does it make sense to you know ship? Let's say hydrogen from southern africa So that it can be turned into green steel in japan and then sold back, you know in in saudi arabia Right that that has a lot that has a cost not only commercial but also environmental right environmental cost of shipping If you take that into account Sometimes does it make sense to localize some of those industries or shorten? Some of that supply chains and same with things like wind turbines where it's so massive That you know transporting has a huge environmental cost And it happens in particularly in latin america where all of the raw materials and goods and the demand is in latin america But they're all shipped to china and re imported as wind turbines So this is the and obviously original supply chain is not easy to build But from an ecological but also development point of view is probably what makes a lot more sense Just building a bit and what amir said as I said in the presentation like The state of the electricity sector in south africa is a huge obstacle to growth So just helping to make that better Will help create jobs and it might can be in Some of it will be renewable energy, but will be also outside the energy sector And bear in mind it's it's an unemployment rate of 22 percent coal mine workers I think it's about 120,000 workers in south africa in the coal mine as well as in the aging power plants The potential for job creation from the transition is significant And some people might say that itself is just is just That you do creating these jobs will create more opportunities compared to the people who who will lose out Of course the people who lose out will feel differently The good thing about the south africa model. I would say it's very consultative It's that it didn't start a cop 26 it Since 2015 this idea of just energy transition has entered the rhetoric and the development agenda I will say too It's the forward planning and thinking okay. These are the industries we want to create How do we get the younger generation having those skills? And the idea is that that is what south africa is trying to do A lot of countries have tried it in the past and building those skills, but it hasn't Materialized in the way that it was planned But you know the idea is that how having a clear agenda and a plan And a set of reforms to back that up It increases the probability of these things actually Leading to a positive outcome. I think there is reason to be hopeful Right now they think in south africa's case. They're talking about the manufacturing of electric vehicles And green hydrogen which I know less of but I think that there is real potential for job creation Thank you So we still have some time left And I have two questions and I think that they'll be it so please go ahead first back there and then And thank you. My name is morina come from Kenya My question is to such Shakira I'm just curious to know to what extent this partnership If there's any possibility of it being extended to other countries And the ability of it Plus We know that south africa I think the the focus is more on the Production of cool, but how about these other climatic challenges? Is there any possibility that this could be extended to cover that? Thank you Thank you. Can you hold on for a second so we can Compound with the other Last question. So Tony, please I'm Tony Addison coban Hagan and wider. So my question is um linking up the The green agenda with with the debt question Which is um, you know, say I'm a minister of finance and I I say basically well, I really like your You know ideas around industrial policy and The just transition and job creation But but these are really at most medium term long term gains to the economy And you know next month I have to find a billion dollars To repay my my debt service my external dollar denominated debt And at the moment all I have got is um fossil fuel earnings coal in the case of south africa or oil in the case of venezuela There are some powerful incumbents In the sector the national oil company is saying well, you know, we're very viable There's a very good market for oil and gas There's still a very good global market for coal. You know, we can sell this stuff So my short term problem is I need to service the debt Um, can you help me out on this? You know, what's your response? Thank you, so we'll start with our shakira and then everybody can Sure So the idea of the partnership like sort of after being extended to other countries That's definitely the current intention Targeting other high carbon emitters any major economies like india indonesia but In our paper at audi we we make the case that it's climate action It's not only mitigation So there is a potential of trance of using this model the political agreement having concessional Finance backing a shared plan of vision To deliver something that's a Definite Change as opposed to a marginal improvement So there is that potential we think for adaptation and resilience How that would look it's it hasn't been done yet. There's a lot of appetite and a room to help Uh develop a framework of what this may look like. So I think yes It is a possibility and It's something that we at audi I plan to do more work in as well Uh, it I will say it's it's related to the fact that climate finance the project Financing approach it hasn't produced the results that we want. It's it's messy It's costly. You can't easily access the finance It's a really finding a new approach to work with countries to support their priorities That that's the goal of this platform approach Um in terms of uh, tony's point, which is yes, sure in terms of the short term In a treat of when you when you I worked in the government and I advise governments and you know You want to pay salaries you need to service your debt And a lot of these things are very medium to long term So really in the case of South Africa, that's why it really has to stop with that political agreement in terms of um That buying from the top if that's not there At domestically it's not going to happen because there's too many interests against it and those interests are well organized right, uh in the sense of South Africa Escom debt is such a huge problem and it it can't go on right and they recognize That's having a respect on their own public finances and on economic growth So that's why it's a win-win situation there other countries where you mean I have that incentive That's the the political dynamics are different and really what will the international community offer to sweeten the deal and that that's That's that's still to be decided, right? I know now in Ecuador a long time ago They had that deal like you you leave the oil in the ground and we'll pay you X amounts of money that never happened for a variety of reasons because you know it's it's How how do international how does international public finance Using that to peel off your debts. It's not going to fly But how how do you improve the the the international architecture so the countries could uh restructure your debts in a more Timing efficient way and where this as uh, uh, Ugo was saying like linking those things to climate And I think that's the way we need to go It's it's it's going to be messy. It's going to be tricky, but that's definitely What we have to do going forward or something Okay, thank you. We're actually pretty much done with our time, but would either of you like to add Yeah, I wanted to to extend bit your question to another aspect one is debt service. The other is Fresh capital your ministry is interested about fresh capital and goes to London or New York trying to You know persuade people in the banking sector to get interested in his country Uh, the first response you will get will be a cynical one When he starts talking about green strategy, etc The banker will interrupt him and say, you know, this is just noise. I'm interested in returns And then you have the more sophisticated type of bankers They will raise two issues one is risk. The second is aggregation So I think from an academic point of view the challenge we have and I'm trying to be a bit provocative here The challenge we have is to see how we can integrate risk and aggregation in a kind of bottom up policy From the endogenous needs of a developing country Because even sophisticated bankers, this is what they are looking for And if indeed fresh capital is in need, we need to try to accommodate This response Tony always asks the the tough questions But in that context the the the point I could add is the idea of Thinking about those pathways between short-term needs And long-term objectives, right? There's no one way to lock up in the future and And obviously sometimes there are tensions, but there are also ways that short-term objectives can be leveraged Even when thinking about, you know, fossil fuels, right? There are different ways in which, you know, you ask the question is does that short-term extraction Help long-term productive capabilities? Let's say in blue hydrogen and then transition towards green hydrogen And that also addresses the point of of skills and jobs, right? And in many ways the people are working in coal or fossil fuels Not all skills can be repurposed some of them can be if you work in temperature engineering You can work in renewables if you work in drilling it's going to be very difficult But then it's kind of thinking about which parts of the short-term objectives are can be repurposed Which funds are gone and the case of narrow which will which you know often uses is a cautionary tale in that regards Because short-term extraction of phosphate meant that long-term renewable income of agriculture was destroyed forever Right and this was a context in which the short-term plan just meant that in the long term the country was going bankrupt And now it's you know Main source of income is being a refugee detention center for Australia. So this is the opposite way But I guess these are the questions in terms of short-term planning to keep The future windows open as opposed to closing them down Thank you. Thank you very much. It's lunch time. Thank you all for your questions And please join me to thank the excellent speakers