 Good afternoon, and welcome to this special event with the Prime Minister of Australia, Scott Morrison. I'm Michael Fully Love, the Executive Director of the Lowy Institute. Shortly, we'll be joined by the Prime Minister from Curebilly House, where he's isolating with COVID. If there's one thing we've learned over the past two years, it's that COVID always has another trick up its sleeve. We're grateful that, despite his positive test, the PM has kept his rendezvous with the Institute today. Before we begin, let me acknowledge the traditional custodians of the land on which the Institute stands, the Gadigal of the Eora Nation. I pay my respects to their elders, past and present. I think we've all been both horrified and inspired by events in Ukraine over the past fortnight. For those of us who've been watching closely, of course, this has been coming for a long time. Over the past decade, the liberal international order has seen progressively less liberal, less international, and less orderly. A new group of autocratic leaders have appeared on the scene. And as they went on the front foot, the democracies went on the back foot. Often when democracies came upon an unpleasant scene, then like the priest and the Levite in the parable of the Good Samaritan, they passed by on the other side. One such scene occurred 11 days ago when Russia's forces invaded its neighbor, Ukraine. Since then, the Russian military has committed terrible crimes against the Ukrainian people. That's the bad news. But there's also encouraging news. The Ukrainians have defended their country with remarkable courage and resourcefulness. President Volodymyr Zelensky has emerged as a leader for our times. And on this occasion, the democracies did not pass by on the other side. The world has responded with steel and resolve. Moscow is almost completely isolated. We've seen tough economic sanctions against Russia and arms transfers to Ukraine. Germany has pledged to wean itself off Russian energy and increase its defense spending. Even Switzerland has dropped its traditional posture of neutrality. Australia has not been quiet either. The government has announced a range of measures, including over $100 million in aid, most of which comprises military equipment. In these extraordinary times, it's my pleasure to invite the Prime Minister to deliver some remarks about these events, their implications for the Indo-Pacific and Australia's response. After his speech, the PM has agreed to take some questions. Prime Minister, thank you again for joining us from Kiribati House. Let me now invite you to speak. Thank you very much, Michael, and to the Lowy Institute for the introduction and the welcome, the opportunity to join you. I very much appreciate this opportunity. Let me firstly acknowledge as you have the traditional owners of the land on which we meet, the Gadigal people of your nation, and pay my respects to their elders past, present and emerging. I also want to pay tribute to any serving members of our Defence forces or veterans who may be joining us today and thank them for their tremendous service to our country. As we meet today, though, and with heartbreaking familiarity, images of catastrophic loss due to flooding have again gripped our nation in Queensland and New South Wales. Sadly, 16 people have so far been lost and our deepest condolences go out to their families and their loved ones. I want to thank all those engaged in the past staking work of rescue and recovery from our brave emergency service workers and our SES volunteers through to the men and women of our ADF. There are some 2000 Defence Force personnel right now currently deployed across the flood-affected areas under Operation Fluttersys 2022 led by Brigadier Mick Garroway and directly tasked by state governments in New South Wales and Queensland to support their flood response. This number will increase to some 5,000 over the next few days as we move into the cleanup and rebuilding phase. ADF assistance includes air drops of food and supplies into isolated communities and helping clear roads to restore essential services like power and the internet. More than 100 people have been directly rescued by the ADF since this terrible disaster began and these rescues continue in the many areas still cut off, working with the SES and other local authorities. In addition, as of this morning, some $193 million has already been paid in disaster payments by the federal government through Services Australia in just five days to 163,000 individuals impacted by these floods. Primary producers can also register for recovery grants of up to 75,000 and small businesses for up to 50,000 with the New South Wales and Queensland state governments as part of a $1 billion program which is jointly funded 50-50 by the federal government which has also included $1 million in direct payments to local governments each in the affected areas. But we know more support will be required and that is especially the case in Lismore and northern New South Wales and surrounding districts where the flood levels are reported to have peaked above all known records and several metres of that. In Lismore, this is not just a flood event. It is a catastrophic natural disaster. We are currently bringing together a further package of support and I look forward to being able to visit the impacted areas later this week after my current COVID isolation is completed to assess that situation firsthand as we prepare our further response. But most of all today, to the thousands of Australians who have just reached out and helped their neighbour during these terrible floods, thank you. Your quiet acts of care and compassion and bravery have once again humbled our nation. I thank you. But beyond our shores, as you were saying, Michael, we face many other threats. The world has ended a profound period of strategic challenge and disruption. Once again, the horror of war has befallen Europe and unprovoked, unjust and illegal. After months of planning, bullying, coercion and intimidation, Russia has invaded Ukraine. Australia strongly supports Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity and we condemn rushes of horrid actions in the strongest possible terms as a gross violation of international law and an assault on freedom. This is just the latest example of an authoritarian regime seeking to challenge the status quo through threats and violence. Our rules-based international order built upon the principles and values that guide our own nation has for decades supported peace and stability and allowed sovereign nations to pursue their interests free from coercion. This is now under assault. A new arc of autocracy is instinctively aligning to challenge them and reset the world order in their own image. We face the specter of a transactional world, devoid of principle, accountability and transparency, where state sovereignty and territorial integrity and liberty are surrendered for a spite from coercion and intimidation or economic entrapment dressed up as economic reward. This is not a world we want, for us, our neighbours or our region and it's certainly not a world we want for our children. The well-motivated altruistic ambition of our international institutions has opened the door unwittingly to this threat. Just as our open markets and liberal democracies have enabled hostile influence and interference to penetrate our own societies and economies, now we're right to aspire and have open economies. However, the hope that such inclusion and accommodation would lead to some reform or moderation of these autocratic regimes or assist us more broadly in tackling big global and economic and environmental challenges. Well, that hope has been disappointed. As Prime Minister, I've been warning about this for years, including at the Lowe Institute. Our Liberal National's government has been clear-eyed on these threats. We have taken strong, brave and world-leading action in response. We have taken the initiative to bolster our own resilience, to call out the threat and to rally like-minded to address what is taking place right in front of us, in plain sight. We have been criticised for our stand, including in our own country. And indeed, we have been targeted by those we have criticised. But I am pleased we have been prepared to stand our ground. Because if not us, then who? Would we be expecting others to do it on Australia's behalf to protect our interests? I certainly do not believe Australians want such timidity and resignation from their leaders. None of us want conflict. We want peace. We want stability. But nor do we want the very world order that underpins our freedoms to be eroded for the fear of giving offence. In some vain hope that such concessions would ameliorate the determination of those who seek to intimidate and coerce us. Events are now lifting the veil, I believe. Perhaps the scales are beginning to fall from the world's eyes also, at least I hope so. And so Australia faces its most significant and most dangerous security environment in 80 years. This is where I'd really like to address my remarks today. First of all, the crisis in Europe and the contribution Australia is making and the broader challenge to world order and Australia's national security spots and focusing especially on our own region, the Indo-Pacific. To the war in Europe, Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a gross violation of international law in the UN Charter. Russia's actions have been and should be condemned by all members of the international community. We expect Russia to continue though its brutal attacks, including bombarding residential areas, even nuclear facilities with scant regard for civilian casualties or the broader catastrophic impact. This is what autocrats do. It is not the product of some sudden madness or a failure of earlier diplomacy to resolve just grievances. These are the bloody and violent acts of an autocrat determined to impose his will on others in the contrived self-justification of realising some nationalistic destiny. And we've seen all this before. Everything points to a bloody and protected conflict. More than 1.5 million people have already fled Ukraine and we fear this is only the beginning of an unfolding and terrible humanitarian catastrophe. As I remarked to President Zelensky just on Saturday evening, Australia will continue to stand with the brave people of Ukraine and we're working with our allies and partners to supplement Ukraine's military defences. Last Tuesday, I announced around $70 million in defensive military assistance and non-lethal military equipment and medical supplies to support the defence of Ukraine. Our missiles are on the ground now. If there is further effective support, we can provide to assist Ukraine's efforts, we will. Every day Ukraine resists is a further day of humiliation to President Putin and imposes a heavy price on his illegal, reckless and callous acts of aggression. So yes, we have offered our prayers, but in Australia, we have also sent our ammunition. In addition, Australia is helping those rendered homeless or vulnerable by Putin's war machine with $35 million in humanitarian assistance for urgent needs, especially for those displaced in a neighbouring country. Now, this was a special focus of my discussions last week at the Quad as well with German Chancellor Schultz and Polish Prime Minister Mareke. Australia's assistance will deliver life-saving services and supplies, including shelter, water, food and medical care. Since the crisis began less than two weeks ago, we have fast-tracked the approval of some 1,700 visas and have begun preparations to address likely demands on our humanitarian and broader migration program. Now, this may include a rerun of the successful Temporary Safe Haven program we ran for the Kosovo some years ago. And in my discussions with European leaders, it is their prevailing expectation though that rather than long-term resettlement, those who have been displaced will want to return to their home in Ukraine. Australia is working with other countries to ensure that Putin's Russia pays the maximum possible economic price for this brutal war of aggression. This is important because we know there are powerful actors in our region who are watching closely, looking for signs of weakness and division within the West. Unprecedented economic and financial sanctions are now humbling and biting hard on the world's 11th biggest economy. A significant portion of Russia's foreign exchange reserves has been frozen and the Russian economy is increasingly cut off from Western financial markets. Major multinational companies, such as BP and Shell, are selling their Russian assets. Australia's superannuation funds are divesting those assets. Australia has imposed targeted financial sanctions on 21 entities, including 11 Russian financial institutions and that includes the central bank of Russia. We've also imposed financial sanctions and travel bans on 392 individuals. That includes President Putin, Foreign Minister Lavrov and all the permanent members of Russia's Security Council. This is an addition to our sanctions on eight oligarchs, 339 members of the Russian parliament and key figures in the Belarusian government and military. I want to particularly recognise actions taken against Russia by countries such as Japan and South Korea and Singapore are welcome testimony in our own region to international solidarity. It would be folly to venture predictions on the wider fallout from Mr. Putin's war at this point. Certain early conclusions, though, can be drawn. Firstly, Europe has had a major wake-up call, strategically and economically. Australia welcomed signs of a more concerted, tough-minded European approach to autocrat adventurers. Germany supplying Ukraine with anti-tank weapons and stinger missiles and moving immediately to increase defence spending to 2% of GDP. I know Denmark had made the same announcement. Sweden and Finland long committed to military non-alignment, now contemplating joining NATO and also taking part in all-notary consultations about the crisis and sending weapons to Ukraine. The EU finding weapons for Ukraine and even Switzerland moving from its traditional position of neutrality. Secondly, the global system of independent commerce and finance built largely under American leadership over the past 70 years remains an enormously powerful force not to be underestimated. This should give us renewed confidence to assert that those who wish to overturn the global order through violence need to think again. And thirdly, political will matters. It's been humbling to witness the courage and moral clarity of President Zelensky's inspiring leadership in this country. And it was a privilege to be able to commend him for that in our conversation just a few days ago on behalf of all Australians. There is a wider lesson here for Western liberal democracies as we come face to face with brutal autocratic aggression and coercion. And that is we must stand together. We cannot afford the pettiness of small differences to infect our relations and our long-term cooperation. We have to get over this and fast. Our adversaries will ruthlessly look to exploit this. What unites us as Western liberal democracies is far greater and far more enduring than what divides us. So stand together we must resolute against aggression and coercion wherever it occurs. The strategic political, economic, and social implications of this crisis will of course be deeply felt within Europe but will inevitably stretch to the Indo-Pacific which is the next point I wanted to address. This was a topic of our discussion of the Quad leaders meeting the other night. This war of choice by Mr. Putin is a reminder that although Australia's focus is the Indo-Pacific, events elsewhere can affect our regional security. The Indo-Pacific remains at the centre of global geostrategic competition. Australia is an Indo-Pacific nation. The future of the Indo-Pacific is our future. Threats in our region are proliferating from both state and non-state actors. Militarisation is expanding and evolving rapidly. The spectre from terrorism and all forms of violent extremism endures. The challenge from more surreptitious malign activities, espionage, disinformation, cyber attacks, foreign interference and economic coercion, it's mounting daily. We're seeing increasing resort in our region to grey area tactics where the boundary between legitimate and hostile activity is deliberately blurred. And the rise of so-called hybrid warfare that has stripped away the old boundaries that once separated the realms of defence, foreign policy, trade and investment, communications and other areas reaching deep into our domestic security. Australia seeks to work with all countries to ensure a peaceful, stable and prosperous region. However, we're not naive and nor can we be. The challenges we face continue to mount. They require us to increase our resilience, expand our capabilities and harden our defences. Liberal National's government that I lead is taking decisive action to ensure that Australia's future is secure. Firstly, by building our military capability for the new challenges of the 21st century. Secondly, by widening and reinforcing our webs of alignment globally, especially in the Indo-Pacific. And thirdly, by strengthening our national resilience at home with policies that reinforce both economic and national security goals into the future. So the cornerstone of national security under our government has been extensive reimbursement in defence capability. As you know, when we came to government, the defence budget as a share of our economy had fallen to 1.56%. That was the lowest level since the Second World War. Now, defence spending in 2020, 2021, as a percentage of our economy, of our GDP, is above 2%. This year, it will be at almost 2.1% and rising. The government is investing $578 billion in the nation's defence force over the next decade, including over $280 billion in enhanced defence capability. This investment is geared to delivering regionally superior capabilities because that's what we need, and there is more to do. Our first initiative under the AUKUS partnership is acquiring nuclear-powered submarine technology, leveraging decades of experience from the United States and the United Kingdom. On the 8th of February, the exchange of naval nuclear propulsion information agreement came into force in record time for an agreement of this nature. This landmark agreement is the first time, since 1958, that the US has allowed access to this vital strategic technology information on nuclear-propelled submarines. It gives Australia the training and information sharing that we need to build that capability right here in partnership with our AUKUS partners. It is a huge milestone and a reflection of the strategic trust that we've built with the United States and United Kingdom. We will also enhance our long-term range-strike capabilities to boost ADF's capability to deliver strike effects across our air, land, and maritime domains. Australia will be one of the few countries to fill Tomahawk missiles, the extended-range version of the joint air-to-surface standoff missile, and other sophisticated strike capabilities. Through the $1 billion guided weapons and explosive ordnance enterprise that I announced, we will be able to make our own weapons on our own soil. Now, this is essential to keep Australians safe, while also building sovereign capability right across Australia. We're developing niche technologies to enhance our capability and partner interoperability in space and advanced cyber domains. But it won't end there. Alongside new capabilities, we must ensure they are deployed to maximum strategic effect. It was back in 1987 that the Hawke government announced a two-ocean basing plan for the Royal Australian Navy. Intention was a Navy capable of deploying major fleet units for sustained operations off both the East and the West Coast. Significant infrastructure and forced-structure investment led ultimately to the main fleet bases on each coast, becoming known as Fleet Base West at HMAS Sterling, which became home of the Navy's new Collins-class submarines and Fleet Base East, set on HMAS Colourable. Since that time, while around half of our major warships have been home-ported on each coast, the Collins-class submarine fleet has been home-ported in the West. And there's been good reason for this, particularly to avoid duplication of facilities and infrastructure to ensure we're at an industrial base capable of supporting submarines. However, tomorrow's capability, particularly now in the context of Hawke's, calls for new thinking. Today, I can announce that the government has decided to establish a future submarine base on the East Coast of Australia as well to support basing and disposition of the future nuclear-powered submarines. This is about additional national capacity, not relocating any existing or planned future capacity for Fleet Base West. Fleet Base West will remain home to our current and future submarines, given a strategic importance on the Indian Ocean. The decision to establish an East Coast submarine base has been many years in the making as part of the transition from Collins. However, the government has now determined that to support our decision to acquire nuclear-powered submarines, establishing a second submarine base on our East Coast will enhance our strategic deterrent capability with significant advantages in operational, training, personnel, and industrial terms. An optimal East Coast base will provide home-ported submarines with specialized warps, maintenance facilities, administrative and logistic support, personal amenities, and suitable accommodation for submarine crews and support staff, including those visiting. It would also enable those visiting of US and UK nuclear-powered submarines. Following significant work by defence, reviewing 19 potential sites, three preferred locations on the East Coast have now been identified. They are Brisbane, Newcastle, and Port Kemble. Now, all three locations meet many of the criteria that the government agreed would need to be met to support our strategic objectives. And they include, which is important, being close to sufficient industrial infrastructure that will be able to support the complex demands of maintaining and repairing high-tech submarines in an efficient and affordable manner. Secondly, being close to large population centres to optimize our ability to retract, recruit, and retain the substantially larger uniform submarine workforce we are building to crew and support future submarines. And being reasonably proximate to our primary maritime training and operational areas, to deep water and to weapon storage and loading facilities. And there's ensuring that the location of the base provides strategic depths as far as possible from potential threats and supports the mounting and sustaining of operations. Now, government has authorized defence to immediately begin engaging with the New South Wales and Queensland governments. And I was in contact with both of the premiers last night. And relevant local governments also and authorities to further validate their work to date and to begin negotiations on what will be an enormous undertaking. This initial work is expected to be completed by the end of 2023 and will ultimately form part and be informed by the work underway right now by the nuclear submarine task force. The defence has not constructed a major new base since Robertson Barracks in the 1990s. Construction of a new East Coast submarine base would be a larger undertaking and the largest infrastructure investment in the integrated investment programme without offence forces. Based on early estimates, we have provisioned nationally more than $10 billion to meet the facilities and infrastructure requirements for the future transition from Collins to the future nuclear-powered submarines over the next 20 years, which includes but is not exclusive to the East Coast submarine base. We'll also be spending and investing more in the West too as part of the required upgrades to infrastructure in other locations. And I'll have more to say about that in the weeks ahead. Establishment of a new submarine base on the East Coast will bring significant positive long-term economic benefits. And they're obvious, investment associated with building a new Greenfield submarine base, as well as the economic benefits flowing from a larger ADF population and their families in and around that base. There will also be significant benefits for local and national industry in supporting the new base and the more complex and larger nuclear-powered submarine fleet. Again, none of this detracts from what we will be doing, have been doing and will continue to do at Fleet Base West, which is central to our future. Australia, though, we never elect alone. We are most successful when we work with others. We carry our weight, and that is why we have been so successful in forming so many new, like-minded partnerships essential to protecting our national interests and keeping Australians safe. Since 2018, my government has done the hard work of diplomacy to build these relationships and shape our strategic environment, building what we call webs of alignment. We're taking a multi-layered approach, deepening our bilateral, regional and multilateral engagement through the G20 to promote resilient recovery from the pandemic through our participation at the G7 Plus. We've made a strong contribution at the G7's invitation to build our collective resilience as open democratic societies and economies. Our new AUKUS trilateral security partnership leverages 70 years of working together with the United States and the United Kingdom to protect our shared values and promote security and prosperity. It is the most significant defence partnership since ANZUS. We've reinvigorated the Quad partnership with India, Japan and the United States with a new leaders dialogue that met again only this past week to discuss the implications of the war in Europe, specifically for a free and open Indo-Pacific. We've completed the reciprocal access agreement with Japan. The first such two-way agreement that Japan has ever entered into. Our cooperation is delivering in the Quad vaccines, setting standards for critical and emerging technologies, enhancing clean energy innovation and boosting supply chain resilience. Australia recently became the first country ever to agree a comprehensive strategic partnership with ASEAN, demonstrating the primacy of our engagement with Southeast Asia. These elevated ties build on nearly 50 years of cooperation as ASEAN's first ever dialogue partner. ASEAN sits at the heart of our region's architecture. Its stability, security and growth is fundamental to our own. To our North and East, our Pacific Island nations are our family. Our futures are inextricably linked. And whenever a family member needs help, we have always helped and they have in return and we will always continue to be there for our Pacific family. In the Indo-Pacific, we are working with European partners to help bolster the principles that underpin stability for decades. We will look at practical ways to support Europe's Indo-Pacific strategy. And in the last four years, we've worked to elevate bilateral partnerships with Team Aleste, Vietnam, South Korea, Indonesia, Fiji, India, Papua New Guinea, Thailand, Malaysia, Austria and Germany. China's growing power and influence though are a strategic fact that is known to all of our partners. What we care about is how Beijing uses its strength. There's no doubt that China has become more assertive and is using its power in ways that are causing concern to nations across the region and beyond including our own. We're concerned that the militarization of disputed features in the South China Sea, where international law should apply as it does everywhere else. And we're concerned about growing tensions in the Taiwan Strait. Australia has long supported the status quo that has underpinned regional security and prosperity. That status quo is disturbed by China's military actions. Few weeks ago, we saw a Chinese naval ship in the Arafura Sea, irresponsibly pointing a military-grade laser and an Australian Defence Force aircraft. This is needlessly provocative and is incredibly dangerous. The crisis that now grips Europe heralds a moment of choice for China, the Chinese government and leadership. Under Mr. Putin, Russia has chosen the path of violence and seeking to overturn the global order. The world has heard China's words about its commitment to global peace and respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity and playing a positive role in the international community for a very long time now. So it's now up to China's and their leaders at this hinge point of history to demonstrate that these are more than just words. But I fear the early signs are not good. As following the Xi Putin meeting in Beijing at the Olympics that preceded the invasion, the Chinese government has acted to throw Putin's Russia and economic lifeline, relaxing trade restrictions on Russian wheat. And today, we even hear of Union pay's potential involvement out of China in supporting a payment system in Russia. China's language has also pretended to an equivalence of interests between Russia and Ukraine and even a legitimate cause for Russia to invade Ukraine. No country would have a greater impact right now on Russia's violent aggression towards Ukraine than China joining the rest of the world in denouncing Russia's aggression and applying the same sanctions we have. So far, they have not. To building our resilience at home, alongside building our military capability and our network of relationships, we must work on the other pillar which is vital to our national security. We must continue to build our economic strength and resilience at home, to continue to give Australia the ability to make our own decisions and for us to pursue our own path. So let me touch briefly on three areas where the government has worked to build such resilience. Cyber security, critical infrastructure protection and sovereign manufacturing capability. Firstly, our cyber 2020 cybersecurity strategy set out a comprehensive $1.7 billion 10-year plan to achieve our vision for a more secure online world for Australians. The businesses and the essential services upon which we all depend. We've invested in the capabilities of the Australian Cyber Security Centre with a particular focus on enhancing our capabilities to protect our critical networks and infrastructure. We've enhanced the powers and capabilities of our security agencies to combat cyber criminals. One example is the work of our world-class Australian Signals Directed, which has actively undertaken offensive cyber action during the COVID-19 pandemic to hack back and disrupt offshore cyber criminals scamming Australians. We've also been investing in growing the human capital. So critical to creating a secure digital economy, our cyber security workforce. Secondly, our government has been at the leading edge of protecting Australia's critical infrastructure to secure the essential services all Australians rely on. Everything from electricity and water to healthcare and groceries. In 2017, as Treasurer, I announced the establishment of the Critical Infrastructure Centre to coordinate the management of the complex and evolving national security risks to our critical infrastructure. Since that time, we've passed laws that enhance the security of the management and operation of critical infrastructure assets. They introduced mandatory instant reporting to critical infrastructure entities that experienced serious cyber security incidents. And that allowed the government to use its unique capabilities to assist industry to respond to immediate and serious cyber attacks on Australian systems. We intend to pass an additional round of critical infrastructure protection legislation when we return to the parliament and we look forward to doing that. And thirdly, the COVID pandemic has underscored why it's important to maintain a sovereign manufacturing capability. This is also central to our nation's economic plan. The coalition's one and a half billion dollar modern manufacturing strategy is securing Australia's sovereign manufacturing capability and supporting supply chain resilience. It focuses on six priority areas, space, medical products, food and beverage, recycling and clean energy, resources technology and critical minerals processing and of course, defence. Now building our sovereign defence capability not only means acquiring new capabilities and growing and skilling the people we need to operate them, it also means growing and building the industry capability and capacity needed to maintain them. Resilient supply chains underpin Australia's prosperity and security. And while the private sector is primarily responsible for managing supply chain risks, there is a strategic role for the government to help deliver solutions to supply chain vulnerability in areas critical to our national interests. Recent experience provides examples of how supply chains of critical goods are vulnerable to a wide range of impacts, COVID effects, economic shocks, coercive action, workforce stoppages, freight delays, natural disasters, demand surges and disruption at global production centers. And not all manufacturing and supply chains can or should be addressed domestically. That's why the government is also working with our quad partners and other friends to develop trusted supply chain approaches, cooperative approaches that strengthen supply chain security based on mutual manufacturing and resources-based strengths. More broadly, international collaboration to mainframe free and open markets in a global rules-based order will continue to be central to help manage supply chains risks. In conclusion, and I thank you for your patience, ladies and gentlemen, if there is a simple message from my remarks today, it is that national security affects all Australians. It extends far beyond the prospect of fighting wars. It's about safeguarding our way of life, our access to the amenities, liberties and essentials that Australians rely on and enjoy. It's about seeking to shape the changing world we live in to promote peace, provides stability for people to live their lives and an international order that favours freedom. We face a world that is more fragile, more contested and arguably even more fragmented than at any time since the Second World War. My government has remained steadfast in protecting Australia's interests. We have led, not followed. Australians know the courage we have shown and we will continue to show it. We are the proven choice, the Liberal National Government, when it comes to protecting Australia's national security interests. Our decisions are underpinned by our values as a Liberal Democratic country. We believe in a Liberal rules-based global order, one that favours freedom over autocracy and tyranny, universal human rights, opportunities for all and the sovereignty of all nations. By investing in our national security, we have better place to protect ourselves and to work with others to protect theirs. To ensure our region remains one in which each country's sovereignty and territorial integrity is respected. Where might does not make right and where the same rules apply to everyone, all countries, whether they are giants or small island states like our Pacific family? Our shared prosperity and security depend on it. That's how you keep Australians safe. Thank you so much for your attention. Well, thank you, Prime Minister, for those forceful and wide-ranging remarks that are already being reported very widely. You said, and I quote, this is the most difficult and dangerous security environment in 80 years, which is quite a statement, given that 80 years ago, Australians witnessed the fall of Singapore. Thank you also for agreeing to take some questions. We have about 20 minutes, a bit over 20 minutes, and I'd like to squeeze in as many as I can. I want to ask you about the Indo-Pacific and China and institutions and Australian defence, but let me start with Ukraine. I'm sure Mr. Putin thought that this war would strengthen his position at home. But instead, as you said, Russia has been subjected to unprecedented sanctions, the freezing of its currency reserves, the devaluation of the ruble. We've seen protests in Moscow, along with security crackdowns. In light of all this, do you think a regime change is more likely in Kiev or in Moscow? Well, I probably wouldn't speculate on either of those, but at this point, but what I would say is this, there is no doubt that Mr. Putin is not getting what he was seeking. And each and every day, the resistance by Ukraine, I think, has been extraordinary. And the cost is piling up day on day on day. I think he's overestimated the capacity of how he might be able to prosecute this illegal war. And the sheer callous disregard, not only for innocent civilians in Ukraine, but frankly, for the way that he has just sent young conscripts into the flames. I don't see how that would be resonating well back in Russia. There is a clear, I think, gap emerging between his ambition and what would be the reasonable nationalistic sentiment of Russians more broadly. And I really do applaud those in Russia who have been standing up. I applaud those Australians of Russian to sit here who have been standing with their UK, with their Ukrainian fellow Australians. That I think is one of the most positive messages that can be sent out of a multicultural country like Australia. So I don't think it's playing out for Mr. Putin as he thought. And it's certainly playing out far better than anyone would have anticipated for President Zelensky. And he has showed a forthrightness and a determination which has been inspiring. And that's why we lit up the opera house. I mean, that's why so many countries have done similar things. Yes, we have to continue to encourage them to go forward with their efforts and continue to provide them with everything we can to support them. You mentioned that you had a call with President Zelensky at the weekend. Tell us a bit about his demeanor on that call and talk a bit more about your impressions of his leadership in the last couple of weeks. Well, he's very focused. He's very determined. He has a clear plan. It obviously depends heavily on continuing to rally international support both in a practical way when it comes to lethal defense support as well as maintaining the pressure. And I think all Western countries, all those participating in these sanctions, need to hold fast and endure over the long term. You know, some break in the fighting that may occur should not enable the pressure or the vice to be eased when it comes to Russia. And that's what they need. They need that continued international momentum. I talked about Russia having to pay an economic price, but they have to also play a reputational price for this, a diplomatic price for this. And they are indeed paying that price. So he is just very focused on that element of his plan. He's very appreciative of the support, particularly from Australia, a long way away from Ukraine. I think when he first heard of our support, this was over a week ago, we've been trying to get in touch with each other. But when I get a message, I can't do the call tonight because where I feel that you can fill in the rest of what he was up to, probably the most reasonable excuse I've heard for not being able to complete a call on a particular night. And we've given him full support. But I'm pleased we could speak on Saturday night and I could just encouraging him what he's doing. And he needs that encouragement. We obviously talked about things like the no-fly zone and things of that nature and additional support, air support. These are complex issues. I sense that he understands that and he understands the delicate balance that has to be maintained by those who are supporting him. But equally, the resistance and the fight in President Zelensky is something to behold. PM, you said Ukraine has been a major wake-up call and I would say that the West has woken up. How confident are you that we'll remain awake and that this solidarity will continue? Well, I'm maybe not as confident of you, Michael, about how big the wake-up is. I certainly hope that's true. And that's why I made the remarks about this was not the product of President Putin seeking leverage to try and gain some marginal advantage and some negotiations and the usual European dance of diplomacy that goes around here. That's not what this was. He planned this a long time ago and he was absolutely determined to follow it through and he went and told China he was going to do it by the reports that we see, very clearly. And this is quite chilling. And so now we hear the theories, oh, it's just he's all gone mad. No, he hasn't. He's an autocrat and he's following through on his plans. And for all of us in the West and more broadly, I think we need to understand that autocrats don't play by the same rules as the rest of us. Their mindset is very different. And I found it quite chilling when I spoke to other leaders about conversations that they've had with President Putin about these issues and they're subjected to a rather lengthy lecture on nationalistic aspirations of Russia and what is rightly theirs. That has a chilling reverberation with similar lectures that I've been on the receiving end of about situations in the Indo-Pacific and what people claim to be theirs. So I think we have to be internally vigilant on this. And this is very important for Australia. You know, we can't step back from this. I know it comes at a cost. I know it means that we have been targeted, but we must look clear-eyed about the threats in our own region and what's occurring in Europe. And it was a very good discussion at the Quad the other night. Of course, all Quad members are concerned about what's happening in Europe, but the Quad wasn't set up to focus on Europe. The Quad was set up to focus on strategic issues, on humanitarian issues, economic development issues in the Indo-Pacific. And so President Biden and Narendra Prime Minister Modi and Prime Minister Kishita and I had a very lengthy conversation about why it's so important that a price is paid for this aggression and that we understand fully the nature of the work and planning and determination of autographs. All right, let me go to Russia and China. Today you referred to an arc of autocracy, which I presume includes both Beijing and Moscow. Yesterday the Defence Minister Peter Dutton called this relationship an unholy alliance. Tell us a bit about this relationship. How tight is the relationship? Could the invasion of Ukraine create a problem for the relationship? What can countries such as Australia do to weaken that relationship? Well, I think the second last point you made about the events, I assume what you're saying about the events in Ukraine and what that means for that relationship, I would describe it more of an instinctive relationship, an opportunistic relationship, rather than a strategic one. China and Russia have got a fairly interesting history in terms of their engagement. I don't think anything has changed about that, but there does seem to be some alignment in the sort of world order that they would prefer to the one that has been in place since the end of the Second World War. And we've seen that play out over a long time. So there has been a convenient fellow traveling, I think, and that's how I would describe it. I wouldn't for a moment seek to draw any parallels between the situation in the Taiwan Strait and Ukraine. I think these situations are entirely different. And the responses that would be expected in the Taiwan Strait would be completely different to what has occurred in Ukraine. So I wouldn't want to alert or concern Australians that simply because of what's occurring in Ukraine, then B will follow A on these things. I don't believe that. I think those circumstances in that situation is as it was before. Tense, deserving of concern and attention, but not necessarily at all impacted by the events in Ukraine. What can Australia do? Keep calling this out. While most of the world was focused on what the actions of Russia was, I was quite adamant in speaking up on the fact was I was listening for the voice of the Chinese government when it came to condemning the actions of Russia. And there was a chilling silence. And when I learned the other day that they were easing weak trade restrictions from Russia and throwing Russia an economic lifeline while the rest of the world was seeking to impose a heavy price, this for me just jars completely with what the broader international interest is here. Now China has long claimed to a role as one of the major powers in the world and to be a contributor to global peace and stability. This is why I reinforce this point that no country will have a bigger impact on concluding this terrible war in Ukraine than China. But so long as they have a better each way on this, then I fear the bloodshed will continue. PM, let me ask you about institutions. You said today in your remarks, the well-motivated altruistic ambitions of our international institutions has opened the door to this threat. And it reminded me of your 2019 Lowy lecture, or as it became known, the negative globalism speech in which you voice concerns about international institutions becoming overly powerful and demanding conformity. But let me ask you, wouldn't you say that international institutions have been very useful in the past two weeks? For example, hasn't the European Union stepped up? Ukraine has applied to join the EU, I should say. The UN and other institutions have condemned Mr Putin's aggression. Don't we want to see international institutions behaving just like this in relation to threats from countries like Russia and China? Of course, and I will call that positive globalism. My remarks several years ago was simply to draw attention to why I think of the less helpful elements of how international institutions operate. We are a great supporter of international institutions, and what I also said in that speech, as you may recall, is we then set out and have had some success. Think, of course, to the elevation of the election of Mattias Corman, the Secretary General of the OECD. We set out on a very clear path of seeking to have greater influence in these institutions to ensure they are focused on what we believe were the most oppressing issues. We have been working hand in glove with many other like-minded countries to ensure that international institutions are not being hollowed out and hollowed out in plain sight by some who would seek to take them in different directions. So we've worked on many candidacies of many countries to support them in a lot of these institutions to ensure that they focus on a positive agenda. The point I was also making today, Michael, was that it is right and good. So it's not so much a criticism as an observation, it is right and good that we would want international institutions to work with member states to try and deal with the big economic and environmental challenges that we face. This is a good thing, but by the very open nature of that process we have become exposed to interference, to subversion, to a range of other things which can take that agenda off track. And there are a lot of concessions that have been given, whether it's been in trade or so many other things, in our own democracies. I mean, we are open democracies that are open to foreign investment and all of these things. This is a good thing, but at the same time it comes with a double-edged risk, double-edged sort risk of a vulnerability and that has been taken advantage of and I think that is clear. So what has been our response domestically? Foreign interference legislation, a raft of other measures which have sought to improve the resilience of liberal democracies to these sorts of threats. And I think international institutions need to be just as wary of these things, just as countries like Australia have. And Australia has led the way in this area. I mean, when I tabled those 14 points at the G7 Plus, they were surprising. They were surprising to many around that table. And it's important that we continue to do that. Because I said, if it's not us, then who is it? Let me come to AUKUS and Australian Defence capabilities. How does the invasion of Ukraine affect the argument for nuclear-propelled submarines for Australia? Well, I don't think it changes it at all. I mean, it was already compelling and overwhelming. So I think, yeah, sure. I think it highlights the work of autocracies as I've outlined and I think it highlights the higher threat environment in which we need to operate and why we need greater capabilities. But I think all of those points were the driving forces of AUKUS before these events took place and it continues to carry it. Yesterday, the Defence Minister Peter Dutton said that the discussions with the Americans in the Brits since the AUKUS announcement had been incredibly productive and the government would make an announcement in the next couple of months about which boat we're going with and what we can do in the interim. Let me put a question to you from Ben Packham at the Australian. Will this announcement be made before the election? And if it is, will there be consultation with Labor given the long timeframe of the program? I know we don't anticipate that decision we made before the election. We don't and no one should expect it to. It won't be done in that timeframe. And as Ben rightly points out, that would involve a whole other process, particularly during a caretaker period leading up to the election. But I can confirm what Peter has said, that we have made a lot of progress. I mean, we haven't let the grass grow into our feet on this. Admiral Reed has been out here most recently. He's been down in South Australia. We've been, there's been enormous amount of work that has been going on in that 18 month process that we set out. But the 18 month process isn't just about deciding the technology option and the boat option we go forward with. You've got to make that decision. And then there's a whole series of things that have to take place after that. But I stress this as the Minister defends it. This is a trilateral partnership. This is not a procurement contest. This is a partnership where the decisions are being made together, which separates it from any other procurement arrangement that the government has been involved with. The United States has proprietorship over the technology, not just over any technology that we would seek to use, but also over the UK use of such technology. So that is the nature of this partnership. And the partners are working incredibly well together. The speed at which was effectively the treaty level arrangements that needed to be put in place and how that was able to be secured was very encouraging. And when I was in the United States last year, and we took the effort, as we should have, to go up onto the hill and be briefing every committee we could, the bipartisan leadership of the House, there was massive support throughout the US system in the executive, in the legislature, and of course within the defence institutions themselves. Same, it's true in the UK. PM, I have a question from Andrew Caldor. And Andrew asks as follows, the invasion of Ukraine has triggered a massive wave of people fleeing to Australia, fleeing to safety, I should say. Will Australia increase its quota of refugees to allow a larger number of these desperate people to resettle here? Well, just like with Afghanistan, if we need to, we will. And as I said, the first thing we did is we immediately put to the top of a pile all Ukrainian visa applications. Now, at that time, there was, this is two weeks ago, there was about 430 outstanding. They were quickly resolved. And over that two-week period, we've now processed and granted some 1700 visas already. Now, there's 1700 visas in the normal migration program. And this is, I think, one of the points of difference with a Ukrainian migration. And that is, we are more likely to see them use many more points of our migration program, the family program, the skilled program, the student program and so on. And there'll be a mixture of both temporary and permanent visas because particularly in my discussion with the Polish Prime Minister the other night and other members of the European Union, their expectation is that one and a half million people have left Ukraine. That the overwhelming almost entirety of those will want to return to Ukraine if they can. And so that's why I highlighted the potential role of an arrangement like the Kosovo's Arrangement, which was highly successful. We provide a temporary safe haven, and they were then able to return to their homeland, which is what they wanted to do. Now, I expect we'll see the same thing here with Ukraine, but we are preparing those options, but we are also not stepping back on the commitments to our Afghan humanitarian program, which continues. So it's what they're supposed to be doing. Pam, just for the final question, let me go back to where we started with Ukraine. How do you think this dreadful event will end? And how confident are you that at the end of it, Ukraine will be sovereign, independent, and whole? Well, I'm not confident of that outcome at this point. But nor can Mr. Putin be confident of the outcome he thought would come so easily. And I think this is a very important point. I think there has been an overestimation of Russia's capability, and that has been made more broadly. And I think that has been made in Russia. And I think that forces a recalibration of what some people think they can do. It might look all good on paper. It might look like what can be achieved from what the generals and others tell you. But a few strategies survive contact with the enemy, as the Defence Force generals will tell you. And I think that has been lived out in a very candid way in Ukraine. And what we will certainly see in Ukraine is a prolonged resurgence. I think what we'll see is a resistance in the Ukraine, which will only grow over time. I think any gains that are potentially made will be very hard to hold. And this all goes to our view about what our response should be, and that is impose the heaviest possible price for as long as possible to deter any other or a crack from thinking they can go down a similar path and it can be done easily or quickly. Well, that's all we have time for this afternoon. Prime Minister, thank you again for joining us today. We know you have many commitments. These are very important issues, and we're grateful to hear your thoughts on them. Well, thank you, Michael, for the opportunity again, and thank everybody for their patience. There was a lot to get through today, and I appreciate your attention. Thanks again to our viewers online. Let me tell you that at lunchtime this Thursday, we will be hosting the leader of the opposition, Anthony Albanese. It's a busy week here at Bly Street. Mr. Albanese will speak to us about how a Labor government would deliver national security in a complex world. We hope that you can join us for that. But in the meantime, thank you again for joining us today at the Lowy Institute for this special event with the Prime Minister. Thank you and good afternoon.