 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Power Trading Hour with your host David White. Call now toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. Now David White. And welcome all to another excellent edition of Power Trading Hour. It doesn't matter where you're at. What you're doing if you're standing on your head or floating in outer space. As long as you're here at this time. The following takes place between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. Well, we had the indexes gut shot earlier in the day. They tried to push these things up. Since we got to 4550 we really haven't had the kind of gusto and volume that we need to blow through those highs. We did have the one of the Fed presidents come out and red pill us. I brought this up early in the morning before we even got started maybe around 9 o'clock about where the and when we were going to see a preponderance of the evidence flip from the 5050 chance in March for a 50% or for a half a percent interest rate hike. To more than that, I thought maybe we'd go to after looking at the numbers at 830. Probably go to 75% chance of a half a percent and maybe by mid-summer one and a half percent higher. So we shall see but certainly red-pilled to the fact that inflation is actually killing so many of the people on the low side of the socio-economic spectrum and the average dollar amount from a year ago is that if you're making about $30,000 a year or maybe 25 you're going to be paying $250 more a month than you did last year for the exact same thing. About 80 of that for most households is gasoline and yeah another 170 of that for food and electricity and literally everything the decision to go after fossil fuels has leaked into everything and whether it was the you know 1976 with Carter or today artificially putting higher prices on fuel and not letting them run at market prices is always a recipe for disaster. In the 70s we didn't have much of a decision on that. Today that is a decision that we could turn back on. I just don't know politically whether or not we can or we the powers that be can but you want to see one or two percent interest rate by the middle of summer? Go back to drill baby drill and the problem is that literally everything touches fuel prices and the pie in the sky version of we're just going to put up windmills is about the equivalent of what was it? Our gang saying what's put on a show will raise a bunch of cash just not a plan just wishes and with predictable results from a model like I said in 1976 we really didn't have much of a short-term option because we got caught with our pants down but today we can make all the energy we want and that would satiate a massive amount of inflation that we have today, but it is a decision. What do we got? We got Tim Ord coming on at the break at 15 after the hour. If you have any questions get them to me by email and I'll try to get to them get them get it to him on the break and that will do that. What's my next target for the TLT? Well, I think I already said it. I think it's that 132. Let's take a quick look as we go out here. Yeah, we had a nice little Gartley pattern in the TLT. I would have liked that D to C leg take a little longer, but and the feds always in there monkeying with stuff so you never can actually do it, but you got down to 135.84 today but that's just the first bounce. You already have 21 million shares compared to 21 million shares on May 12th. You got 21 million shares down here at 131.95, which would be the next level, but you went into that today. Does it break instantly? Probably not. Can it go sideways for a handful of days? Next week. I'm expecting that 130 yeah, 131.95 and probably a gap down to it. I think we're just going to open up and the floodgates are going to start. The one thing I don't know is whether or not that 131.95 is going to hold. The Fed still has just a little bit of cash to throw at the market until the end of March, but it may be doing nothing but the proverbial Dutch boy with his finger in the dyke trying to hold back an immovable force. 877-927-6648. If you want to talk to Tim Ord will be gone through there. He sent me three charts. I also I'm going to start off with where he thinks the market is. Yeah, we're going to we're going to be gaslighted. I know that, but yeah, just just don't pay any attention to what they say just whatever they say today is the truth and whatever they said before was not. But yeah, I know how it is. Anyway, like I said, 877-927-6648. Let's do a little history. Well, I forgot to even do it. You know what? We're going to forget that. We're going to go right back to the charts because I forgot to get whatever the thing of the day was. Oh, I did want to start bringing this up because I'm going to talk to Tim Ord about it. Where did it go? It has now disappeared. OK, let's see. OK, let's open the editor. As I said, right before Christmas, this is probably the most important chart that we want to be keeping an eye on and thinking. I do not absolutely have a signal for today. We need to close below 4550, but I don't know how that's going to play out. We're kind of fairly below that, but where things have happened, maybe somebody comes in. But I said this chart from Jean-Paul Rod Rieg is probably one of the best models about how the market moves long-term. And I'm going to talk to Tim about it. I sent him the chart earlier today. But it's whether or not we're at the return to normal or we still have a little bit of delusion and new paradigm to drive us back up to the top. He'll be looking for some bigger signals after a whole longer term. More than most of us is different. We'll talk about this a week later. 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From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Visit us online at tfnn.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN, Educating Investors. Toll Free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618. And we're back. I wanted to welcome to the microphones once again Tim Ord of the Ord-Oracles.com. Tim, of course, has won many awards. Hang on a second. I've got a little bit more of a buildup for you. He has won many awards of Timer of the Year. He's written a newsletter himself for over 30 years. And Jack of all trades. How are you doing today, Tim? Good. Thanks for having me on. What I wanted to say is I wanted to ask you the question first. I also wanted to say during the next break, I've already sent you a couple of emails of people asking questions so you can look at those during the break. But certainly I sent you this chart. Let me get it here. The kind of the model I like, where the market gets to a high and then it starts to fail. Do you think there's any validity into that chart right now? I'm showing the John Paul Rodriguez chart from his transportation website. There's not levels in this, but there is kind of the thought of the way that markets come up to euphoric levels and then fail. Right. You're talking about basically sentiment. How sentiment kind of tends or picks. If a sentiment can extremely bearish at tops, you really don't have a top is what you're saying. And I think this valuation thing you sent me here has a lot of truth to it. Trying to determine where we are in the current markets. I don't think we, according to my clients, they're kind of bearish here. We did have a pretty big sell-off in January. But I don't think we've reached the levels yet where a bear market is about to begin as far as sentiment goes. Everybody on this decline, we know that from the high of what December down to the low in January, that's about a 10% decline. And I think we could possibly see a test of the January 24th low. But I don't think we're starting a major decline here, at least not yet. So just because of a sentiment is not really set up or you have all that year for it's nothing near what we had in 2000. Yeah, I'm not expecting the end of the world like 2000. But there was that kind of everything blew up when we came back after Christmas. And you found a low and then you moved back up and had a fairly decent rally into March in 2000. And then the wheels fell off the wagon. Right, yeah. And, well, everybody, I don't think we're doing that here because the sentiment is not really right. When everybody turns a bearish all at once, as a matter of fact, I got some indicators that kind of define how a sentiment is. In other words, the velocity of the VIX helps define sentiment. If the market declines and VIX doesn't do much, it goes up, but goes up slowly. That's usually a real bearish sign because people are not exiting their positions. But if the market does decline and VIX goes right through the ceiling in a short period of time, to me that's a more panning situation. It's something that's what happened going into the January 24th low. VIX went right through the ceiling. And so the velocity of the VIX tells a big story of how, I guess, investors perceive what the market is going to do. And I do a lot of work with TIX and TRIN and all that other stuff too. Because I actually caught part of that decline in 2000. And on that decline, firstly, nobody was panicking. Not until you got way into the decline. And that's not happening here. We already got a big panic at the switch we had going into, I think it was on Monday, January 24th. But in that 2000 decline, people were kind of buying the pullback. I got this stock at this price. It's even cheaper today, so I'll buy more type attitude. And here they're just blowing everything out. So I don't think we're set up for a 2000 decline or even a 2009 decline. I could change here, but that's why I see it. We had too much panic at the January lows. That's my feeling on that. And the more the panic you get, the stronger that bottom becomes. So if we go down and test the January 24th low, I'm not sure we're going to do that yet or not. But if we do, and you see on news that how bad it is, the market is, then it's a, to me, a bullish sign. And I've got quite a few different indicators that I'll suggest that this panic always comes at bottoms. And euphoria usually comes up on tops. But euphoria is harder to reach than panic. So tops, in other words, tops are a little bit harder to figure out. We can actually look at the bigger longer-term patterns on the SPX. I did send those two charts. I'm going to talk about that. Or we're going to talk about your valuation here on smart money. I'm saying we're still in a bullish trend here on the bigger timeframes. And we can, you know, you got media attention here. You had a bear trap. We can talk about those if you want. No, I was just, it's one where you really don't know. I just have been talking about it since mid-December when I said this is probably the most important thing. And you need to know where you're at if you're really looking at some kind of long-term belief where you're going to stay long or short in the market for a while. The only thing I'm thinking of is continually higher interest rates until probably mid-Summer. And it's just hard for me to think that there's a lot of upside to that. Plus a lot of potential worries geopolitical and even political here in the United States. Well, I think the interest rate has the most value. I mean, if a market has got liquidity, usually that can pretty much overcome any kind of situation. If the market, the government, you know, says take away the money spicket, which is basically raising the interest rates, that can slow the decline. But usually the first couple, I mean, they may have a little wiggle in the market. But, you know, when interest rates really start to really affect the markets in a big way when it gets to a high point, you know, one percent interest rate is not going to do a lot of damage to the market. But if you get a five percent interest rate, I think you will. Yeah, I sent you some emails, so go ahead and check those out during the break. I do have to say that something weird happened to me today at lunch, and that is I went to three different stores. Walmart, Dollar Store, and the gas station. They all had signs that they were not taking cash. Nobody showed up from breaks or whatever with all their cash. So whatever that's worth, you can't pay cash. You only credit today at least in clear water, which I thought is the weirdest thing I've ever seen. 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Don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software. Get your copy of The Art of Timing the Trade Charts today by visiting tfnn.com. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com. We return with Tim Ord of theOrdashOracle.com, and of course, a multi-winner of a different time of the year awards in many different things, but at least indexes in gold and some other things. Where do you want to go first? Do you want to go to one of the charts you created or the questions? Michael from, I guess, San Francisco, I think is what I said. Maybe that's the other one. Michael wants to know what Tesla stock. Actually, I just pulled it up here. I put it on a weekly chart. The last low was $800, which corresponded probably to the January 24th low on the S&P. I still think this stock is still in an uptrend. The previous highs, which is January high of 2021, pretty much came into that level and looks like an ABC down. Please, ask what the pattern is so far. I'm thinking at worst is the trading range where $800 support and you got $1,200 area, which is the previous highs resistance. I think this is just an ABC down. If the S&P's test January 24th low, Tesla's probably tested previous low, which is $800. If you can get close to mid-800 or lower, it's probably a good buy. That's how I'm viewing it. The monthly Bollinger Bands are still trending higher in the weeklies also. If you go back up to the $1,200 area and as tall as up there, they'll give time for the bunch of Bollinger Bands to flip sideways. That would probably mean a trading range. I think there's a buy at $800 or a little bit better, or $800 or above. I think you have resistance at $1,200 if you get to $1,200 then on and upward. I don't see a top in this one, but low $800 is probably a buy. $1,200, you'd have to watch it real closely to see if that's resistance or it can break through. The next one is a VIX and Pete from San Francisco. I guess this is one from San Francisco. Can you ask Tim when he thinks a VIX bottom is in and where he sees a VIX fall until he's going from here? Yeah, I actually do think the VIX bottom was made on January 24th. I do a lot of different work with VIX. It's a pretty good indicator. Like I said, I got an RSI of VIX. I got a rate of change of the VIX, which works really good. The faster that VIX moves, the more panic you're seeing and the more closer to the bottom you are. We got VIX bottom rings on that January 24th low. Usually if the market does recast January 24th low, the VIX will make a lower high. That will give you a little bit more confirmation that the market is not breaking down and keeping on going lower. I don't have that VIX chart right in front of me, but it'll probably start staying above 20. I don't think we'll have a trending market this year. I still think actually from my work so far, I still think we'll have an up year this year, but maybe it's not as obviously as good as last year, but it's still up. VIX will stay above 20 more or less. How high it will go, I'm not sure. The first half of the year is usually the most trickiest going into July than after that. It's a little bit more. Even though you do get a sell in May attitude where you pick it up in the July bottom, but February and March are kind of tricky. I think we're kind of in the trading range here. That trading range will be last till May. That's VIX. I think it has made a low, and the next low in the market will make a higher VIX. But I think this year, again, the VIX will be a higher range than we had last year. There's pretty much a trending market. It kind of just went up and stayed up. I hope that answers that question. Okay. Which one of the charts do you want to go to first? Actually, we're looking at this gold chart. It's got so many things going for it, and it's a trouble that this is a monthly chart. It may not change much over the next couple of weeks because it's a monthly chart. But you've got a lot of things going for it here. The top pattern and this pattern, and I'm pointing out on gold, it's a monthly chart and goes back to mid-2009. To me, this is, I label it as the head and shoulders bottom, or you can do a cup of handle thing if you want it. I did some Fibonacci studies on it. I took the low from 2019 up, and the market held above the 6.8% retracement, which is really bullish. It's kind of drawing a triangle of their pattern. I have a trend line connecting the highs going back to the August 2020 high, and we're right smack at the breakout area. To really confirm this breakout, you should see a sign of strength through this area. Sign of strength is kind of a big push in volume and price. So volume should really pick up here. If and when it breaks out, you should see a big jump in volume and pretty much a big price fling here also. So the line... In triangles, you talk about them breaking and doing a head fake before they go the way you want. Is this good enough of the asymmetrical triangles you talk about? Yeah, it could be. The first breakout fails, and it gives everybody discretion to come back. And that could do that here. You're right. Those triangles are really... I hate triangles, but if you ever look at most charts, they're all triangles. And yeah, this one could be a false breakout. And they could come back a month and down a month and come back up and still keep the pattern pretty much symmetrical to the left shoulder and being asymmetric. So is this a breakout that's happening right now? Maybe, maybe not. But eventually, because so far over the last, what, two years now, it has only managed to retrace 6.8% or has only retraced 38.2% retracement of the previous rally. So this, because of the retracement, this goal is in a strong position. The only thing we're kind of arguing about is when the breakout occurs. But if you look at the flow of the cascades on the monthly timeframe, it's been trending up since about... Highballing here looks like about October. And even though it hasn't done much since October, it kind of rolls all indicators. So no matter, you know, if the momentum's up, you remain long and momentum's up on this one so far. If you look at the bottom window there, you got a real narrow range on GLD, which is ETF for gold. And it's kind of the same pattern here, but it's a little bit clearer that the Bollinger bands are really pinching pretty strongly here. And if the market goes sideways for a couple of months, that pinch will even come stronger. So that suggests at some point we're due to break out this dull market that's been going on since October. And either we go up or we go down. But with monthly momentum, which rules weekly momentum, which rules daily momentum, the suggest the break will be to the upside at some point. Okay. While we're going to the break, we'll come back. We've got two more charts with him and maybe another question or two from our... Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area, including the surrounding St. Petersburg, Tampa and Clearwater markets? Tiger Real Estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay Area. Whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value or you're in the market for a second home or investment property, Tiger Realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the Tampa Bay Area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions across all price levels. 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That's tfnn.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. As we return, we pop back into the market S&P's off 62. Dow down 437, NASDAQ off 201. Russell 2000 off 20. Crude oil up 15 cents. Gold down 3 bucks. And, of course, we had one of the Fed voters come out and say that he was for a half price rate hike in March. And, of course, we also have them done with bond buying next month, too. So it's all going to hit the proverbial fan. What chart do you want to look at next here? I got chart number one. I'll look at NBX. Okay. I got red circles around actually this is a monthly chart of NBX going back to, I'll figure about mid-1985. And I had the red circles show the times when the NBX fell below his mid-Bollinger ban, which pretty much defines the trend of the market. And we fell back there in 1987. That was a 1987 crash. We fell back there. That was pretty much it. Turned around within a couple of months and got above the mid-Bollinger ban. Happened again in 1990. Stayed down there for a month or two and started a rally. Happened in 2000. Stayed below the Bollinger ban for mid-Bollinger ban for about two years there. I did it again in 2008 and 2009. And I got a circle right now. We're still above it. As a matter of fact, January 24th low in NBX touched that mid-Bollinger ban. That's all it did. So if your momentum in my opinion rules all indicators until the market falls below the mid-Bollinger ban is when you really got to get bearish. And so far that hasn't happened. If you look at the other highs like 2008 high, you know, it went down and tried to rally back and it's kind of hard to see but it just got back to the mid-Bollinger ban and turned back down again in 2000. You went down real hard and rallied back but didn't make new highs on the second rally. And the second decline really got kind of a nasty. So all I'm saying here what's going on now market just didn't release top and go straight down makes attempts to at least get back to the old highs. And if it can't do that, that's when things can turn ugly. So even though January was a down month the market at some point between now and May will probably be making an attempt to get back to the old highs and that attempt to get back to the old highs will tell a story of what the really market's doing. So until that happens I'm not bearish because the monthly momentum charts are still trending higher and the RSI that's the top window there you can get bearish when the monthly RSI falls below 50 we're coming in right now about 65. So can market just keep going down from there? Yeah, but you already had pretty much big panics at that January low and a lot of different indicators including the ticks and trend and along with the VIX so that's probably a durable low lease right now and I think the worst case scenario is it could be tested and it doesn't even have to get down there but I think after May it will determine what really goes on in the market between now and then I think the worst case scenario is basically the January low and the best case scenario is also the December high so I think we're just right now we're smacking the middle of those two ranges so you know I'm kind of waiting here to determine what the market's going to do it either rallies up, tries to take out the high will tell a big story or if it declines and it can't take out the previous low will tell a big story so if you're a long-term player now it's still not bearish I'll put it that way Momentum's up Momentum turns down is when you got to protect your your portfolio and I don't see that here yet I guess the last time we really had the Fed really kind of aggressively raised rates with massive inflation was the late 70s and early 80s and it took about a couple of years to get through that I think that was before when you were really trading, right? I was in I came to Stockbroker in 77 and I was actually trading often on the gold stocks and that's when gold was flying and so up to that 1980 period then I stayed too long so but as usual but anyhow back then I didn't know it was kind of late 20s early 30s but I didn't know a whole lot seeing my parents and they didn't have really technical analysis back then it was all fundamental but I kind of just traded kind of a moving average type thing and it worked at the time so interest rates they were raising interest rates like crazy I bought a house I think it was 11.5% interest rate it was huge and so that kind of killed the housing market back there because most people couldn't carry that more it was 11% interest rate well we've got chart number two here in about two minutes left all right well that's kind of the same thing here if you notice I have a little window on the right there we didn't even get down to the mid-boned Japan on the S&Ps which suggests S&Ps are a little bit stronger than the NASDAQ we've got things kind of oversold here the bottom window is the summation index and it's right around minus 500 which is in the past that's usually where it kind of bottoms out at could get worse than that but usually in most cases around here if you look at the 2006 2016 pretty much bottom in this so I'm thinking that's what's happening here so I'm not really a big bear here yet because they're right down at the very side if you look at which I probably should have centered over but the NASDAQ Association of Individual Investors are also way on the very side just on a decline in that January decline and they're still on the very side so I'm thinking whatever's berries are kind of staying berries here so I don't see a you know I'm thinking whatever happens here the next month or two is not going to be any damaging more damage going on I think the damage could occur basically in the late timeframe especially if we're back up to the highs and we can't get through those highs then I think you can see some real damage but until that happens or if we just keep breaking new highs which I don't think that's going to happen either but I don't see a real big danger right here in the market so momentum's up until it turns down I think it's a good situation I'll put it that way well I want to thank Tim Ord for joining us again if you want any of these charts you can email me we'll talk about that on the other side and that's it Tim Ord of the Ord-Oracle.com thanks again and we'll turn in a minute sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument you have to practice sure but you also need excellent instruction from experts at TFNN you'll get advice and guidance from the authority in technical market analysis and it's not just dry tedious text either TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. eastern for 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Nvidia some of these other ones that were you know shorted 40% yesterday really even from the beginning weren't able to hold a little higher I'm not going to short AMD with those kind of numbers I think there's a lot of other better stocks out there to be short long term but I were at the point where we're probably getting a fairly decent signal the only thing that would change things is when I look at options tonight they showed something that was very bearish and I was trying to figure out any way to say that everything else was lining up with that this morning but it's tough you know that you got the Fed out there still has a little money to throw at the market even though as I said in an update today I think everybody got red-billed on what the interest rates are going to be today and what they're going to be for the question is do we get three rate hikes at a half a percent a piece to the point that where they were talking today about one and a half percent higher by mid-summer I'm going to say probably one and a quarter probably split the difference still going to be a big deal so when you can not when you have to we'll see you here tomorrow same bat channel same bat