 Hi, my name's Leon Rowe, Covenancy Trader and Trading Coach at Trading180.com and welcome to this week's Applying Demand Forex Technical Analysis. If you are new, welcome and if you are returning, welcome back. Just wanted to say thank you as well to everybody who does continue to watch these videos every week and comments and subscribes and finds great use out of my weekly analysis videos. Thank you so much for the support and I will continue to give you value as and when I can. So again, just before we get into the fundamentals and the technicals, if you're new, there are links in the description box below regarding the stuff that I'm doing here. So chart analysis on TradingView as well as some other resources as well and you can check out the YouTube channel. So getting into the week ahead from the fundamentals because fundamentals and sentiment is what drives the markets and how we determine value within the market. It's not price, it's not a price chart, price chart is just a reflection of perceived value. So in the week ahead, we've got the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England will be deciding on interest rates, but no changes are expected exactly. I can't see the Federal Reserve or the Bank of England either raising or cutting rates to definitely on the hold, definitely, but the probabilities on the side for a hold. The releases include U.S. Jobs Report, ISN PMIs, Personal Income Outlays, not necessarily Jobs Report is going to be probably the most important out of that. UK Consumer Morale and Market PMIs, Eurozone, first quarter GDP growth that's going to be a one to watch inflation as well definitely in business survey, China, NBS PMIs and Manufacturing PMIs. Again, very important, why is that important? Because China is the global economic engine. If China starts to slow down, then it has a knock on effects on pretty much the rest of the world. So China, even though you might not necessarily trade the Chinese one, the Chinese economy is definitely one to keep your eye on as it definitely affects, for example, Australia as well. It affects everybody, but mainly the commodity currencies like the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar as well. So you've got Australia, AIG, PMIs, markets will also react to U.S.-China trade talks which is more sentiment based. And guys, if you do want to find out more about the fundamentals, if you're new to fundamentals, have a fundamental analysis course, which is in the end in the link in the description box below, Fundamentals and Sentiment Analysis course, and I go over why fundamental analysis, what I look for, what you should really look for, because it can be a bit of a minefield, the fundamental analysis, but I give you the most important parts that I look at, sentiment, risk on, risk off, putting it all together, and some other modules as well, everything you pretty much need to know about fundamental analysis. Also, if you click on the bottom documents, fundamental analysis spreadsheet, take you to this spreadsheet where I give you my fundamental analysis bias on the currency. So dollar, I've been bullish, and for any of you that have been following me for a while, you'll know that pretty much I've been bullish on the dollar for over a year and a half, two years, probably a bit longer than that. And so neutral bearish, so you know that really for the euro-dollar currency pair, you should be selling the euro-dollar at supply zones pretty much, and that's how you match your currency pairs and resources, and last update was today, just before I started making this video. So now let's get into the technicals, let's get into the technicals. So we're going to start off, as you always do, on the Dow Jones Dollar Index. The Dow Jones Dollar Index is a measure of dollar strength against the major currencies like the euro, the yen, and the pound, and the Australian dollar. Now last week, we didn't have an update video, last week was Easter weekend, Good Friday and Easter Monday and took the time off, so we got a bit of catching up to do and a bit of updating to do. So from last week this was the analysis, we were in again a bit of between a low range and a high, what a low price and a high price, so we were really within this range. And prices were even going to pull back to this area here and look for loans or prices could continue a lot higher, it sounds simple, but I was expecting really prices to, with the dollar to basically strengthen how it strengthens and how it gets there is, you know, is anybody's guess, but we can see what had happened and the dollar actually strengthened over the past two weeks now we're pulling back a little bit. So now we need to really just update the charts. So let's update the charts in real time. And what we're going to do is delete, delete that. We'd also deleted this supply zone, this larger supply zone earlier. And this is probably going to break anyway simply because it touched once, twice, three times. So the more times the level is touched the weaker it becomes. So now we're up into really this, this higher zone. And if you are looking to short the dollar pretty much now is the opportunity where you wouldn't necessarily be shorting the dollar, the Dow Jones dollar index, you'd be waiting, you'd be looking to short on any of the other dollar crosses. But as I have my fundamental bias, right, I'm going to be looking to long the dollar. So what I'm looking for is any kind of bullish price action, or when we wait for, you know, for price to really come down into some demand zone. So the first demand zone that we have is going to be here. Let me draw this out right there. And then we've got some demand here as well. So if prices start to set off on the dollar and you're starting to see a bit of a pullback on the dollar, yen, dollar, Swiss, et cetera, then prices come down here and then we get some bullish price action that will coincide with those dollar pairs. Again, if you are seeing some negative price action, say negative but bearish and some selling off price action here and you want to get short on the dollar now is pretty much a decent time. But last week, we had some decent readings out. For example, on GDP, advanced GDP was way better than expected advanced GDP index quarter on quarter wasn't that great. But overall, the GDP for the US economy is growing. So is it a good choice to actually start shorting the dollar? For me personally, not. I'll be waiting for pullbacks into value pretty much before looking to get long. So that's pretty much dollar index for now. Moving on to the dollar yen and the dollar yen. We come up into the supply zone. Now we got what's happened. Supplies pretty much held. We did get a bit of a push up and a bit of a pullback. So this level seems to be holding a bit. So once, twice, three times looks like a bit of a stop hunt there. And what I'm looking for is the prices really to come down to this level. This level of demand right here. We did have a bit of a trend line supporting that level, but no demand. So you wouldn't really necessarily be trading at the highs waiting for a bit of a pullback. And that would coincide with some dollar pullback weakness potentially. I was saying this every week, but more of a sell-off and profit taking on the dollar index and the dollar as a whole. And then you'd be waiting for prices to really come down into this demand zone before looking for a buy. So looking at the dollar yen, this is pretty much what we want to see there. And then higher or if that level doesn't work out, that's what I'll be looking at right now. So if you are looking at buying a Japanese yen over the US dollar, you'd really be waiting for something like some sort of risk-off environment and risk-off being a bit of uncertainty within the global markets or within the US economy. So let's say for example, we've got some sentiment with regards to the dollar Chinese trade war or negotiations, we call it a trade war. If talks necessarily break down or anything like that, then you could see actually a sell-off on the Japanese or sorry, on the US dollar, which would coincide with a risk-off environment, negative sentiment by the Japanese yen. And then you can take advantage of some potentially risk-off sentiment on the Japanese yen. So this would be pretty much your sell trade right now. If you were looking to get short moving on to the dollar Swiss, dollar Swiss, again, Swiss Frank being the weaker out of the two. And again, I was probably looking for a bit of a deeper pullback to try and get into this, but we just didn't get it. Prices just kept going and kept going, broke through these supply zones. And now we're up into a larger supply zone right here. And it's funny because a lot of people will follow the trend, right? And we follow value. And what I mean by that is at one point, this was the last real candle or price action. Now if you didn't understand fundamentals, what would you be doing? You would be seeing that, you'd be looking at that down and then you'd say, I'm waiting for some sort of pullback into some sort of supply zone, which I think, sorry, was here. Right, supply because you're looking at new low being made, pullback, and then traders will be looking for a short, right? But if you're looking at the fundamental analysis spreadsheet, you would understand that you really want to be a buyer of the dollar and the Swiss Frank bearish. It's nothing to do with trend trading, we're looking at value, what is a value, yeah? So looking at dollar, Swiss, and back to really the charts, you can see exactly what happened. You know, basically went higher. So now what we're looking at from a value perspective are demand zones. And again, this is just not necessarily financial advice, this is just what I'm doing and how I trade. Yes, did I get, I didn't get involved in this, but what I'll be looking at is pullbacks. Prices eventually do pull back into a demand zone and as long as the fundamentals are still in play and risk is not off, risk is still on, this is the first area I'll be looking at and then this will be the second area. If you are looking to short, you might have to wait maybe a week or two, but so be it. We're taking high probability trade and high quality trades rather than trying to short at every supply and demand zone overall, this is where you'd be looking at if you are looking to get short and take advantage potentially of some dollar weakness, which within times of dollar strength, there will be pullbacks, there is going to be some sort of pullback. You've got a market that literally hasn't pulled back in probably three, four weeks, probably maybe a month or so. At some point, it's going to be some profit taking at this supply zone, but does it mean that you should get short? Again, that's a question for you, me personally, I'd rather wait for a pullback and this is how you trend trade with supply and demand. You have to just be patient, but also with supply and demand. If you understand value, we're looking at buying at value and getting in at the beginning of trends. That's our aim. We're not looking to... Following trends is basically just after the fact, right? So we're not worried about missing out on trends. We're looking at trying to get in at value areas as first and foremost, we're not being dictated to by price, we're being dictated to by fundamental value and you can see the proof of that in what you're seeing there. So potential shorting opportunity right now, if you are looking to buy the Swiss Bank, again, I'd put the same risk off, risk on any pullbacks into demand zones. Next is the dollar CAD and dollar CAD, again, we had a bit of dollar strength and some CAD weakness. Oil was strengthening as well, but when it came to the dollar being number one, we can see what's happening here. Canadian dollar has strengthened a little bit this week as well simply because the central bank has a neutral stance, more of a neutral stance on raising or cutting interest rates there in a basically holding cycle, wait and see. So neutral sentiment, I'll still probably be a buyer of the dollar over the Canadian dollar, US dollar. So we're waiting for potential pullbacks into that area before looking to get long if you're looking to short, you'd have to wait for really prices to come all the way back up to here before looking at a short from a technical analysis perspective. This looks like a brilliant short, but you'd really have to wait for the dollar sentiment really to kick into play, negative, really surprising sentiment for me to really try and take any kind of short trades on that, waiting for basically a pullback into the demand zone. Next is the New Zealand dollar, US dollar. New Zealand came down into this demand zone with a bit of horizontal support at this area. And then we did break lower and again at the time the New Zealand dollar was weak. There was some negative sentiment with regards to the central bank saying that they were the next move potentially is a cut in interest rates. And that's what caused obviously the dovish sentiment. And that's what we saw. But now, recently, we got a great, and last week if we go to Forex Factory, New Zealand dollar, where is it their trade balance basically smashed all estimates. So previous was minus 68 million. It's a surplus of 131 and they literally smashed it. So the New Zealand dollar at the moment decent is taking I guess traders are going to be re-evaluating whether the RBNZ would need to actually cut rates. So what you're probably going to end up seeing is some New Zealand dollar strength, not necessarily against the US dollar. You've got two potential strong currencies against each other, which would result in a ranging market, but against some other New Zealand pairs. We are long on the New Zealand dollar at the moment and we're in some decent profit. Some traders in the actual group. So New Zealand for now I think is definitely a buy. So let's go and update this chart. And I want to say the New Zealand is a buy, not necessarily against a stronger currency but a weaker currency. So again, fundamental analysis spreadsheet you would be probably looking at New Zealand dollar right against something like the Swiss franc, Japanese yen, Euro and even against the Australian dollar. So let's lower this. I don't really like to lower it, but for just for I guess chart purposes. We can use this area here as a level of demand. This would be your supply zone right here. Supply and then you've got a little bit again of pretty supply right there hidden supply there. So those are your levels. If you are looking to get short, you'd be looking at probably some wide zone. Let's see, you're still still relevant really. So you'd be looking at prices to come up into the supply zone and then looking at any kind of short trades. If not, you'd be looking at prices to come up up way up into here. This 67 70 level before looking to get short. If you're looking to get long, probably waiting for a bit of a pullback before looking to get long. But just bear in mind that you are probably trading strength, the strongest currency, the US dollar against another fairly strong currency. So the pound dollar is the next one. And over the past couple of weeks, we've got some dollar strength again. A bit of pound, I wouldn't say necessarily weakness, but you're trading. You're expecting dollar to really again gather and gain in strength as it is the best economy. So this is pretty much what's happened coming down into the demand zone. We're acting a little bit down here. Let's go to the charts and update. So this week, what you'd be looking at is if we update these supply and demand zones, you've got hidden supply there, supply there, a bit of supply there. So you've got a cluster of supply really above these zones, but you also got probably extend that around here. So you've got horizontal. You've got a supply zone. You've got resistance, support, support, support, support, and then turning into potential resistance. So we've got value here. We've also got proven value. We've also got some where other traders would be looking to get in short as well. So a cluster of potential supply orders coming in at this level, providing again that the dollar is still strong. The pound is fairly strong with, I guess, Brexit being taken off the table, or Brexit as we know it being taken off the table and extended, and heading into the obviously European elections. Britain is now and the UK is now part of the European elections and will be voting all and pretty much negative Brexit sentiment is being taken off the table so far. So I think the British pounds should strengthen, maybe not necessarily against the US dollar much, but against a lot of other currencies, the British pound would probably be the one to buy. But if you're looking to get short right now, this is where you'd be looking to get short. If you're looking to get long, then probably right now would be a decent area. You've got a round number, the 129 area, so maybe a bit of a pullback into this demand zone before looking to get long. Are there any other levels? Let's probably see that area right there as a level to also look for long trades if this level breaks. If you're looking to buy the British pound, going on to the euro dollar, euro dollar. So we were waiting for this one saying in the previous video that we were looking for short trades, euro dollar, buying the dollar at this level and we got short here and you can see pretty much what's happened. So yeah, let's again, I guess update the charts. On set is what we're looking for. So we got in short up here and again, as a result, this is how you get in on looking at fundamentals and it makes your trading so much easier when you have a directional bias. So now if we're looking to take advantage of certain levels, and this demand zone would be a level that had been created from way back in 2017 and what I'm going to do is I'm going to move this probably to this low here. Yeah, move that and the next one is probably down here. So if we are looking to take advantage of dollar strength, we'd be looking for a pullback all the way up to here before looking at a level to take the short trade. Why wouldn't I look for an obvious level which is probably going to be around there and for various reasons, but one is that this doesn't represent value for me, you know, support, support just because you've got resistance there. You don't really want to be looking at short in here. You want to look for way supply zones because this is the source of, this is the origin of the move down. This is where the bargain is right for the dollar proven bargain. Prices went lower. So then if you're looking for a sell trade, you know, where are you looking at taking a, you know, a sell trade but buying the dollar during buying the dollar here. If that's the bargain up here, no, I'm looking to buy the dollar all the way up here. So waiting for pullbacks. A lot of traders will probably be looking for, you know, this area here to look for a short trade. And if it does work out, you know, well done to them, but I'm looking at high probability trades and supply zones and demand zones. So I'll be staying out of that trade there. We're looking at this area here for a sell trade. And if prices do go lower, then that will just create another supply zone. And what I'll be waiting for is a pullback into that supply zone. Again, buy trades right now. If you're buying a euro now is pretty much, you know, your opportunity, nothing really more to be said than that Euro Yen from last week came up into the supply zone. Decent selling opportunity if risk goes off. And you can see pretty much what's happened. Massive sell off. Come down into this lower demand zone. We've created some supply zones. So I think the Euro Yen, I really wanted to be a seller of the Euro with the upcoming European elections and risk possibly being off. You know, my medium term play is to actually get short on this currency pair. So we'll be looking at any kind of opportunities to get short around here in that supply zone. And potentially if prices come back into this supply zone, not necessarily fan of this one. I just touched, you know, several, you know, twice already. So I'd be looking for prices. Prices came up to here. I'd be looking for maybe the fresher area of supply before looking to get short. And obviously risk being off. If risk is on, I'm probably going to stay out of this currency pair altogether. But now what you've got is a level along with some demand here. So you could see some Euro rallying. If not, prices down here would be the area to look for buy trades. If you're looking to buy the Euro, moving on to the Australian dollar, US dollar. And again, a couple of weeks ago, where prices come up into the supply zone. And then we had set off with the Australian dollar. You know, the potential bank being dovish. Also, CPI missing expectations as well. So there is potential for a rate cut, the RBA said. So you're seeing, again, sentiment take place within the market. And updating the charts. Clearly demand zones now. What we're going to start to do is, let me take this and I'm going to lower this level here. You've got support, support, support. You've got a wide demand zone here. This is really kind of created from, I guess, beginning of the year, how it goes and stuff like that. So I'm going to keep this demand zone here as ugly as the chart looks. But what we want to see within this demand zone, if you're looking to be a buyer, right, then you'll be looking to be a buyer for buy trades now. And any of these levels within this overall large demand zone, if you're looking for a sell trade, these are the areas, this is the area right here really. You've been really waiting for a long pullback, right, into this area. Or if prices start to make lower highs and lower lows like that, then you'll be waiting for prices to come up into whatever supply zone it makes. For example, we might be doing something like that and then create the supply zone and get it short there. So the chart looks a bit messy, but those of you who follow along will understand exactly what I'm talking about. And again, if you're confused about how to draw supply and demand zones, there are links in the description box below. A lot of free training that I've put out online. And then just go to the YouTube channel. We've got webinars and a lot of training that you can watch and take advantage and understand exactly what I'm talking about when it comes to supply and demand zones being created. And finally, we have the Aussie yen. So again, risk being slightly on. And then now with the Australian dollar being a bit dovish on their interest rates, this is what you're pretty much seeing a bit of a sell-off. Does that mean that the yen is strong? I think I'd still rather be a buyer of the Australian dollar in a risk on environment. But I think negative sentiment is just playing out, which gives us an opportunity to buy the Australian dollar for cheaper because the Japanese yen really isn't the currency to buy in a risk on environment. So going to the charts, we can get rid of some demand zones, some of these levels here. So now we're back really into these demand zones around here. Don't really like the technical setups here to be fair. If I was looking to be a buyer, I'd look for probably a lower level, a fresher level down here at the 77 round number around there before looking for any type of long trades as these levels have been touched several times. Well, this level is a bit more fresh, but down here at the 77 level, you've had one, two, three touches. So I'm not a fan of several touches of levels. But again, if you're looking to be a buyer, now is an opportunity. But if you are looking at maybe a higher quality trade, you'll be waiting for prices if prices get down to this level, 77.50, 77 round number level. If you are looking to take advantage of some potential risk off into the market, you'll be looking at that higher level there. So really again, pullbacks into that level from a technical analysis perspective. This is a brilliant, brilliant level. I do like this level. And for those of you who have got the course, you'll understand that this is what we would call a capture pain relief zone. This is what you call like an A1 setup. It's just fundamentally whether you want to be a buyer of the Japanese yen. So again, while we look at the Australian dollar Japanese yen, it's just a measure of risk off and risk on. And also look at the stock markets and bonds, government treasury bonds and also gold. But again, risk on, we're buying this risk off. We're looking to sell this currency pair. So that's it for this week. If you have found it useful, my analysis, please like, please subscribe and share. It really helps. And again, if you have any questions, please just leave them in the comment section below or email me at infoactrading180.com. Also as well, I know a few of you, quite a few of you have been emailing me, asking me about reenrollment and enrollment will start at some point this week. So looking to take on some new students as well. And if you are interested, just go on to the Trading 180 website. But guys, thank you very much for watching and staying this long. And I hope you have a great trading week.