 Welcome everyone to our webinar this afternoon. We're delighted you're here to join us. As you can see our topic for the day is Russia and Ukraine the politics of resentment. This panel has been in the works for a couple of weeks and as you well know, events on the grounds and in Europe have changed tremendously over these last few weeks and we are I know all concerned about how things will play out. We're concerned about friends and colleagues and we're anxious to understand more about what's happening in Ukraine. So we have assembled for you today a group of panelists who will help to shed some light on what's happening in Europe and the background and context for what we're seeing emerging in front of us. And also who will help us to understand maybe where things are moving so I would like to, again, just in providing context, put up a quick map of Ukraine and its various regions, I think important for us to just remind ourselves of where Ukraine is and it's really strategic in a cultural role in Europe. I know some of our speakers will be referring to the to this but certainly with the very extensive Russian border on the east, the southern ports on the black sea, and then the western borders with many of the Eastern European countries, formally in under the Soviet sphere. So one of the reasons why this is such, I think, again, an important moment for NATO for the West for Russia for China for all of our international global trading partners and allies is exactly this strategic location of Ukraine. So let me go back to this slide and introduce our panelists, I want to move straight to them and let them have the longest possible time to share with you. We expect that we will go with 10 or 15 minutes for each panelist and we should have 25 or so minutes at the close of the webinar to invite your questions and comments for the panelists. So please do keep those in mind, or if you like, you can drop questions into the Q&A icon at the, at, well, on your screen somewhere at the top or bottom of your screen, and we can be sort of looking at those and calling through those as the speakers proceed. So please do, if you have questions, feel free to drop those into the Q&A feature in this webinar. One final remark before we start, we are recording this so that we can share it with quite a number of people who have asked to see it who couldn't be present today. So we will be sharing this webinar recording out to other members of our community. So without those items in mind, I'm going to start with our very welcome guest, Conrad Turner. Conrad Turner was Minister Counselor of the Foreign Service of the United States of America. He has retired as of about two months ago. So Conrad is, I think, speaking for himself as an American citizen today. But Conrad has a very long career in diplomacy for the US government. David Schmidt and I met him when we were working in Ukraine on a project related to academic integrity, which Conrad was Conrad's brainchild and well on its way to implementation as of just the last few months. So Conrad, I'm going to turn it to you and ask you to kick us off with some remarks from your perspective as a diplomat. Please. Thank you, Kathy. Always great to see you and David and your colleagues. And by the way, I could not see the map. If it's possible to put it up, even as I'm talking, that would be great. I spoke in anticipation of this call I spoke a couple of days ago with a somebody I worked with closely in Ukraine a few years ago to get a sense of what things were like on the ground. He told an amazing story. It's going to be similar to other stories we've heard. Ukrainian public figure who clearly was following what's going on. He was surprised. The Russians actually decided to attack. I think Ukraine in general did not expect this to happen. And even the US intelligence that was released, it was difficult to believe. And basically, they didn't believe it would happen because it would be so stupid. And that's in quotes there. That's what that's what he said. Putin's plan to slow reforms to prevent integration with Europe was largely succeeding with the war going on. The economy had been devastated. Recent calculation was there was a that Ukraine had lost 280 billion over the course of just six years. But there they were 4am. They heard explosions. And within a couple of hours they got themselves ready out into a into a traffic jam he and his family. Right into a traffic jam. Eventually they made their way to a friend's place where they stayed and then the next day they moved out, but closer to an airport, which turned out to be maybe not the best move. They heard a crash out there, which was the sound of a Russian plane being shot down. They moved again. And this was after two days they decided this is enough. The family has to leave. He took them to the border. There were lines at the border, long lines. They were lucky enough to get a ride with the Red Cross, and they were able to go across the border on foot. And he he remained behind. I emphasize that this family was lucky, and we're seeing lots of examples of not so lucky families who are struggling to get out of town now. I want to add that he he expressed gratitude for the humanitarian aid, especially going to refugees right now, but he quickly added that what Ukraine really needs right now is weapons, weapons and medicines and medical equipment. And just still on that note, it's, it's a little strange I'm still trying to get my head around it, the people I worked with who became my friends are now carrying weapons. They are living in basements. They are around the world demonstrating. And their morale is high. They do believe that they can prevail. I was a headline I saw in the Washington Post this morning, made me think back to when I was a first, first a student in Moscow in 1982. I hesitate to say that it dates me but I came to a country that was closed propaganda was very strong. The only outside information was VOA, Voice of America and BBC. And even that was jammed. The country had a costly war on its border. There were food shortages, there were lines for sketchy products. There were no business ties. And you can kind of see where I'm going with this. It's just very interesting to see Russia back into a similar situation but I hesitate to say that it is very, very different today for many reasons. But I raise this because I understand many of the listeners and watchers today are future leaders. And I just want to emphasize that history emphasize the importance of history and political science. You learn that things do repeat themselves that certain problems never quite go away. And it's been said many times but if you don't learn history you are you may be doomed to repeat it. The topic is is resentment. And certainly there's a lot today to be resentful about Ukraine has been at war with Russia who invaded, I guess eight years ago now 78. And the on Putin's part, I understand we are led to believe that he is resentful of the collapse of the USSR and the expansion of NATO. And here it's really important to remember that although history is alive in this part of the world. Dictators use and abuse that history. And it's not just history, it's their history. And they don't have a right necessarily over. They don't have a right over the history of another country. And Ukraine has its own history. I want to go back to another time when I was working in Moscow and Russia is a big country. It's a powerful country. And it projects power. And I found, even as a diplomat. I found it very easy to get sucked into that mentality. And I noticed that others journalists and other diplomats seem to go the same direction and that is when something's happening on Russia's border. The message you get is, look, we're Russia. Don't mess with us. And it's very easy to think, well, okay, yes, those people on the periphery. They are kind of uppity. And I discovered that coming to Ukraine. I've been there several times before you think you're coming to a former Soviet Republic even after whatever it is 30 years of post Soviet era. But within a couple or three days you realize you are in a modern European liberal democracy with its own culture, its own borders. It's its own UN representation, its own embassies, and then Russia looms from afar as a bully. The psychology of this is really important because it spills out into the media, it spills out into discussions like this very easily and Russia tends to suck the air out of the room. And it's really important for us to think in terms of Ukraine as an independent country. And here I just want to mention the extraordinary power that I've observed in my career of propaganda and disinformation. It really does work. And Russia's good at it. And I've heard people say it's, it's, it's genius and the way they do it and it's not. It's something that has dates back to the era of the czars, and certainly the Soviet period. It's something that's been refined and been adapted to modern times. But it exists for a reason. And this is something that we all need to be aware of, I think, in our own thinking of the thinking of events and discussions. And I'm thinking of a soccer metaphor when I was in high school. I was the final defender with with somebody coming at me trying to score on our goal. And he, as he approached me, I, all I remember is I found myself on the ground and he had gone on to score. And when I came off the field, I asked the coach, I said, I don't know what happened. He said, he faked you. And that's really what this kind of propaganda is, it's faking. Obviously, there's some truth behind it. But the point is to get us to doubt ourselves to doubt the situation. And there's a wonderful quote from Timothy Snyder, the historian, the one consistent element of Russian propaganda is that Russia has suffered and that it is the West's fault, your fault. And you are meant to be shocked. Blame yourself and make concessions. I've seen a lot of discussion about NATO expansion. And I've seen articles questioning whether this was a smart thing to do. I've seen people who actually believes that it was a very smart thing to do. And of course, this, this had to be done. And it made all the sense in the world but they're by understand others who have a different opinion. What is really important though, is for us to set our divisions aside, because divisions is what Moscow tries to so. The more I think about this invasion, the more I believe that this is not about policy strategy. This is all about Putin, because as was mentioned earlier, it didn't make any sense. He had bad information. And this is kind of this is what you get when you rule by fear people don't want to tell you the truth. He also, I think suffered from availability bias. And I've believed for a long time that the reason why Putin has such low esteem of Ukrainians is I believe that is that is how he feels about his own people. And he looks to available information for for his decision making. It's very unfortunate, and I think Russians deserve better leadership. And also confirmation bias in his past acts of invasions and pressure on his neighbors, the West has not resisted strongly, let's put it mildly, and he believed that that he was safe in taking on Ukraine. I also believe that he still misunderstands Ukraine and Ukrainians. Ukraine is united. Their morale is high. They will fight, and they will continue fighting, even if he takes key. Even if he resorts to Stalinist tactics, which I wouldn't exclude this mess that he's created is going to eat away at his, at his rule. It's not a part. If we don't step forward and help Ukraine to to prevail to survive to thrive. This could be the mistake of the century. They need our help they deserve our help. Let's not make a huge failure of imagination if there's some things that we can't provide. There are others that we can. I'll just close with a mention of the, let's say the bear in the room. The oil situation. And I've seen discussion of talking with Venezuela and even Iran about supplying oil that that we are refusing to take from Russia. Climate disaster is not enough of a motivation to get people to to finally take the brave step of moving away from fossil fuels. This conflict should be we have funded this war. We have funded Russia's military, and we funded the Kremlin's yachts. And I can go on. Thanks. Thanks so much Conrad for getting us started with those really helpful comments. I dropped Conrad's bio into the chat. And you'll certainly see his breath of experience in Eastern Europe. I've heard wonderful stories from Conrad of his time in Russia, early on, and he has a breath of understanding I think of the entire region so thanks so much for that. That introduction. So, let's move on. I'm going to stop this share for a moment and see if I can get a better picture for you. And I'd like to introduce our next speaker David McFadden. David McFadden is professor of history, special specializing in Russian history in the College of Arts and Sciences at Fairfield University. David has been a dear colleague of mine did lots of work early on in the 90s with our faculty to engage us in learning more about Russia and better understanding the demise of the Soviet Empire. So, David, I'll turn it to you and ask you to provide us with some of your insights. Thank you. I would like to, first of all, I want to say that I am totally opposed to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. I want to make that very clear. But what I'd like to do for a few minutes is to give you a little bit of historical background in understanding more about why Russia did this and what kind of historical context is helpful for our broader understanding. First of all, although Putin likes to say that Russia and Ukraine are one people, there is just a bit of truth to that and we need to understand that. Russian civilization started in Kievan Rus and spread then to the north and eventually Moscow and there has always been a very close tie between Russia and Ukraine, which was amplified then of course during the Soviet period. And we also need to understand, because part of that is the context here, Putin's capture of Crimea from Ukraine is, from Putin's point of view, redressing an old wrong because Catherine the Great first conquered Crimea in the 1780s for Russia. And most of Crimea is Russian ethnic Russians and Russian speakers. Then there is this other question which is, I think, very important for us to understand. In the 1990s, after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the rise of an independent Russia, there were numerous conversations in the Bush administration with Russian colleagues on two big issues. One, the United States promised not to extend NATO to Russia's borders. And number two, the United States endeavored to bring Russia into a partnership with NATO to relieve Russia's security concerns. Now this was all forgotten in later years with the expansion of NATO to the East European countries right up to Russia's border. So I think that politics of resentment is a very important issue here for Russia. Russia feels resentful that they were wronged by the United States. They were wronged by NATO. We didn't take their concerns seriously. And their security concerns have always been forgotten or a minor issue for the West. So looking forward, how can this be changed? What can be done to allay Russia's security concerns? Well, first of all, I think it's extremely important to end this war. And whatever France and Germany and I hope the United States can do to bring Ukrainians and Russians together to end this war, that's crucial. And as part of the ending of the war, we have to be able to start dealing with Russia's security concerns. We need to support Ukraine, but we also need to understand Russia and try to get past that. Finally, I want to remind us that the Russian people do not necessarily, in fact, mostly they do not support this war. There have been tremendous demonstrations all over Russia in city after city after city calling for no war. The signs, нет войни, no war. And over 10,000 Russian citizens have been arrested because of their concern over the war and their desiring of peace. Many Russians have Ukrainian relatives. Many Ukrainians have Russian relatives. We need to get past this. We need to find a way to address Russia's security concerns as well as our support for Ukraine. I think the United States needs to do much more to try to end the war. Thank you. Thank you so much, David. I think, again, that history of Russian perspective is really important to think about as we seek solutions to the impasse. So super helpful. Thank you. I'd like to bring in Janie Leatherman, another dear colleague of mine from the Politics Department and International Studies Program. Janie also has rich experience in European politics and spent time in Finland and other parts of Europe during her career. So I'll turn it to Janie to give us a maybe a broader perspective on the European political context. So Janie, please. Okay. Thank you very much, Kathy. I did actually have the good fortune of Fulbright to Finland as a doctoral candidate and support from the American Scandinavian Foundation and that was an opportunity to build on relationships that I had formed even in high school with the Finnish exchange student and actually study Finnish diplomacy in the context of the Cold War between the East and the West. And so I came to have a fairly fine tune understanding of what it felt like to be countries sandwiched, you know, as it were, literally between the blocks. And there were a number of, you know, remarkable experiences that came along with that work. One of them was talking to diplomats as the Cold War was kind of winding down and finding out that there was a buzz in the halls of diplomacy in Europe about how a Polish diplomat had walked into negotiations in Vienna and taken a seat on the western side, because there were apparently no other seats on the eastern side. And nobody could believe that that had happened. And some few years after the Cold War ended, I remember being in NATO headquarters in Brussels on a seminar and learning about the new mechanism that NATO set up immediately after the end of the Cold War, which was called partnership for peace. Very quickly, all the Eastern European countries were standing at the tour knocking and wanting to have a relationship with, with NATO and it was truly remarkable, you know, to be walking down the hallways of the partnership for peace. I think that a few years earlier, these were, you know, folks who were formally speaking our enemies with NATO, and one of the officials joke that the dartboard at the end of the hall was now a target that everybody could, you know, aim at together. The country that was left out of that picture really was Russia. And as Professor McFadden noted, that has been really the conundrum of trying to resolve the remaining kinds of difficulties of creating a world order in the post Cold War period. I'd just like to make a few remarks here about the challenges really of not just European landscape, but a world order, as as many commentators have, have reflected in the last week or two, that what's happening today seems to be upending world order as we've seen in the internet since 1945, or some may may go back even further to 1648. When the piece of us failure was signed and the principles of state sovereignty and territorial integrity were anchored in the foundations of a world system based on nation states that emerged from that juncture. Why did I wrap my head around this question of is world order somehow at a risk of unraveling and turning in new directions. I just noticed that note that that I began to notice around about 2017 that there were many references, especially in the media to things happening in the world that were unprecedented. And, and I started to pay attention to this word. And in article after article I would encounter. Yeah, this is an unprecedented that's unprecedented. And of course, we've heard it just over the last couple weeks again and again, but the invasion by Russia into Ukraine is in many ways unprecedented kind of military action. And aggression against and they were in country for purposes of territorial acquisition and control unprecedented attack on a nuclear power plant actually Chernobyl and a second major power plant in Ukraine unprecedented unleashing of international sanctions by the West on Russia unprecedented wave of refugees approaching 2 million since just February 24 so barely two weeks. So a million refugees a week, and so on. We've heard, however, invocations of unprecedented and many other contacts over the last several years, relating to climate change and associated catastrophic natural disasters, and also relating to wars and many other parts of the world with mounting numbers of displaced persons globally. The UNHCR releases an annual report, and this past year documented at that point, a 10 year increase in the number of displaced persons reaching over 80 million people last year. This year will add to that tally with the massive displacement of people inside Ukraine and fleeing across its borders, as well as from other conflicts about which sometimes we know little and pay little attention such as an Ethiopia, just to mention one situation in Africa that's also on the brink of famine. We've seen unprecedented challenges from the global pandemic and we're hardly through that either. So, I reflect that at a time when the world needs to be more united than ever to confront a panoply of enormous challenges that are threatening the health of people their possibilities of food, water and shelter. I think in some ways witnessing the unraveling of world order new lines of division and polarization between countries and many cases within them as well, and escalating conflicts that will make it increasingly difficult for leaders to come together to confront the common challenges that are threatening threatening the global community as a whole. So what is world order. It's a hard thing to describe in a couple of minutes here. But I think of it as a set of norms and principles rules governed by international institutional arrangements, such as the universal membership of nation states and bodies like the United Nations and its subsidiary agencies. Conferences treaties regimes that oversee their implementation alliances friendships groups of countries that collaborate across a vast array of issues, and the United Nations Security Council, for example, countries come together and refer to themselves as friends of to tackle issues on children and armed conflict or for example, friends of the protection of civilians issues that are so orderly critical right now in the context of the violence in Ukraine. The bedrock principles of this national international order that I've just described, these are principles enshrined in the UN Charter, also in the European context and Helsinki final act of 1975, which invoke territorial integrity of states sovereignty, non intervention and internal affairs or the states. These have been prevailing principles or they've been tested in many different ways, and trampled even different ways over the years, since they've been adopted, especially enshrined in the UN Charter. These have been trampled by countries in the West by our own country, as well as in the East. Nonetheless, we persist with a sense of non aggression against the territory integrity of another state as one of the key principles of this order. So I think it's no small measure because of that alone, that the situation Ukraine has galvanized the global response, global peace movement to urge the countries to back down. And reminded me of when the United States invaded Iraq there was a similar kind of global outpouring and peace movement to urge the United States to turn away from that course of action as well. What is dangerous today about the situation I think is the risk of escalatory chains in response to Putin's aggression in Ukraine. And that type of escalation raises questions about whether there can be a good outcome to the present situation. I always think that we have a vast toolkit now to prevent war to signal the early warning of impending conflicts and to to respond to humanitarian crises and civilians in need. We have tremendous numbers of principles and agreements and United Nations Security Council resolutions and non governmental organizations organized to respond to provide assistance to all of this. But once war breaks out, I always think that the really good solutions are no longer at hand. So then we're left with trying to find solutions through tremendous difficulties and often less and less palatable kinds of outcomes. Today, the types of strategies that we see in place in response to the aggression and in Ukraine by Russia rely on the one hand on increasing the military support the weapons to Ukraine through various channels, and even mercenaries people from various parts of the world coming to fight in that in that conflict which in some ways reminds me of the Spanish Civil War is kind of harbinger of World War Two. And on the other hand we have sanctions and sanctions have become increasingly a weapon of choice, especially in the West. They were used systematically during the Cold War against the Communist block, and they have been used in the post Cold War in many, many situations in an effort to sway a population and its leadership to take an alternative course of action. And generally, sanctions have been intended to provoke more or less a slow kind of slow social change. And one might say in the best best case, sanctions are welcomed by the host country, the targeted country, I should say, because they desire that kind of social change and political change. And that seemed to be the case with sanctions against South Africa. However, it's also possible that sanctions against the country. You know, have very severe consequences for the population of that country, and cause what's known as the rally around the flag effect. So that instead of moving the population and leadership to be willing to consider alternative solutions that may harden their position with respect to the opponent. We see extraordinary kinds of sanctions placed now on on on Russia in a sweeping fashion that that's never, I think been tried before. And one of the escalatory dangers of this is that it, these sanctions threaten to isolate the Russian people, as well as the leadership from the rest of the world. And that's part of their intent in terms of trying to pressure, in this case, even a quicker kind of political and social change in order to change the stakes for the war that's ongoing, and in such a devastating way in Ukraine. I saw, I think it was this morning that even FedEx and DHL have stopped working in Russia, and, and Facebook, you know, has shut down and all kinds of forms of communication are being cut air travel and so on, so that it becomes increasingly difficult or it may well become increasingly difficult for Russians to have alternative information about what's going on. And for the rest of us to reach out to them and and sustained a relationship of friendship to the people of Russia, even if we're in disagreement with the policies of their government. It's really easier to impose sanctions than it is to to lift them and remedy what's been done economically. And we know this from the history of the use of sanctions. We always have unintended consequences. And this is another great concern of mine that developed their own logics that spill over in any number of ways geographically and otherwise escalation itself happens across a wide array of dimensions we don't usually think about that, but it can happen geographically on types of weapons used issues at stake, human and social costs, information flows, and certainly emotionally and psychologically. These dimensions become increasingly intertwined and new and more complex and more dangerous ways, such as the risk of crossing from the conventional to the nuclear threshold which has been discussed in the context of this conflict. Ending war requires a strategy. Many times, it requires something that we would call saving face. This can be a very bitter pill to swallow. For all parties concerned, especially if the stakes at the outcome of a conflict are essentially the same as they were at the outset. But now with all of the unbelievable loss of life and destruction and travel. Thank you so much, Janie really helps to get sort of a big picture around what sort of the rules and regulations that we assumed in a world order become come into question. So very helpful. I'd like to take us now we've been we've been speaking sort of from a 30,000 foot level in in thinking about the politics of Europe. But I think one of the most important reasons we wanted to bring this bring this panel forward is then to take those insights and better than understand what's happening to the people on the ground. You know, I think I saw someone post something recently why should we care about Ukraine, Ukraine, and my response was how can we not care about Ukrainians. And so I think that what David Schmidt will do for us now is bring us to some some communications that he's had with friends and colleagues of ours from Ukraine to better understand what's happening on the ground. And the shock and surprise, I think that many of the Ukrainians feel at this point as as they're being invaded and they're seeing their their lives overturned and overrun. David Schmidt, if you would like to take up our last formal speaker and then we'll turn to what we've got already as a really good pool of questions and the q&a so keep them coming David Schmidt. Thank you Kathy, and hello to our audience. Sometimes in ethics we strive for objectivity by adopting a disinterested perspective, the view from the mountaintop, so to speak. But other times we seek to develop empathy by getting close to the ground, listening attentively to others voices. Here I wish to develop our empathy for Ukrainians by sharing some words from valued colleagues there. These messages have been edited to remove identifiers and personal comments. From February 24. Dear David, the worst morning in my life. Pray for Ukraine. I come to home to my hometown near the east. Airport is on fire. I want to take my mom from here. Mom is alone, and after COVID, and she had a birthday. So I decided to make a surprise. The 26 troops attack my hometown now I'm here with mom, husband and brother are in Kiev, protect territory. Another voice the 12th. Dear David information about Russia is quite controversial. We decided that in the case of invasion we need to take our child away from Kiev. Our friends from Lviv will host us. Husband will stay here. And of course, will join local militaries. This totally terrifies me. It's hard to believe this is really happening. The 24th. We woke up at five because of sounds of explosions. That was really terrifying. Now all is quiet. We're at home. All streets are jammed. So no reason to start going somewhere. We've packed all necessary stuff needed for three to four days and will decide even when we should leave Kiev. I hope this night will be quiet. The 26th. We left Kiev. And then the 28th. We are in a small village in the Carpathian region we are safe. But as for my husband, he is not in Kiev. He is not here. Another voice the 21st or not the 12th. Dear David. I don't know what to say. Everything is not clear. I go to work for a hospital. My students study. My daughter goes to school for the first site. Everything is the same. Somebody from my friends is planning summer vacations in Greece. Somebody's buying a house right now. I'm not talking about the war except TV. Everything was comparatively quiet for me until yesterday. After yesterday's news. I'm in silent panic. The war is very close for everyone. I couldn't even imagine it. And I don't know what to do. I don't have any documents together in any case and keep them all together and I hope for peace. Thank you for your faith in me. Unfortunately, I don't have so deep faith in myself right now. And I feel so unconfident. In any case, I hope for the best for today. This best means peace. Now I'm on the way to the Kapatheon Mountains with daughter. We will be there for a couple of days. Maybe I'll leave her there and I'll return home. It depends on situation and mobilization. March one. We have many volunteers yesterday. Men who were discharged from military service due to heart diseases came to the hospital and asked to abolish this release because they want to fight for Ukraine. There are not enough weapons for everyone. A lot of people went to Europe. I'm not ready yet. I want to act the fourth. Our news is getting worse and worse. The fifth. Physically, I'm fine if we could say this word now. However, psychologically, I am very exhausted. More and more people are going abroad. I don't know if I'm doing right staying here, especially for my daughter. And it depresses me even more. I don't have a plan. The situation with nuclear power plants in general is beyond comprehension. Another voice the 16th. Dear David, of course, we have distress and panic in Ukraine. I feel anxiety, but I do not plan to leave Kyiv or the country in any case. Since September last year, I started attending a psychotherapy group. It helps me a lot to stabilize my mental health and mood in general. I prefer to read positive news, which reports there will be no war. I want to believe that. The 25th. Siren sounds are heard. Many neighbors went into hiding for the night. I stayed home. I'm probably not as afraid as the rest, because I'm from an Eastern city. And this has already happened to me. March one yesterday we discussed the topic of heroism. Each person is capable of this under certain conditions, and depending on how he perceives them. I know that when we talked about depression, it was heroic to make the bed or take a shower. Someone can kill the enemy. Someone can help the neighbor. Perhaps this is a different degree of heroism in the war. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe I justify my cowardice. March 6. We are still in the apartment. It's relatively quiet. I'm very tired mentally. Yesterday I met with friends from the psychotherapy group on zoom, almost all of them left Kyiv. Today I had a dream. I am standing in the middle of the room of my apartment and cannot decide to leave it. I woke up. I cried. My aunt died yesterday. She lived in Russia. She scolded Putin from the first days of his election. She said he was not human. Another voice, the 23rd. Dear David, Ukraine and Ukrainian people are stronger than it seems. We try to hold on and be brave. March 4. My child is safe and me too. But I am very angry. It cannot be possible to cross out the life of the whole country. Another voice, February 24. Dear David, 21st century Europe, the situation is like a horror movie, a bad horror. March 1. David, where can we find a good hitman to shoot Putin? A couple of minutes ago they blew up a square in Kharkov. Putin began to openly destroy residential areas. We really need NATO to close the sky over Ukraine. We can handle it on the ground. David, it seems that the whole world dreams of one thing and now no one will allow himself to say Ukraine is something like Russia or Ukraine is a part of Russia. The whole world has united with us. Millions of people couldn't imagine this before. This is very valuable. God must hear the prayers of the whole world and end this. Glory to heroes. March 5. David, thanks for your support. We are desperate. Civilians, ordinary people are being killed. Cities have been destroyed. I am with the eastern city of my family with all my thoughts and heart now. Russia destroyed all the places of my childhood where I went to rest, where my friends were. My family doesn't have a country house now and there are no cats that lived there. All we want is to close the sky. I'm not an expert in politics, but when they say it will start a world war, it's already on. So many countries are helping Ukraine with money, weapons, sanctions, sending their soldiers and accepting refugees. Today is day 10. Psychologists say that a period of despair has come and one must not give up. Another voice, the 24th. Dear David, I'm waiting for a bus to go to my parents. Yes, luckily myself and all family is here, but I'm not sure it's safe anywhere now. The sixth. Unfortunately, I wasn't with my mom on her birthday. I have to be honest with you, though after this honesty, you might be disappointed with me. I'm not somewhere in the center of events helping people. David, I'm in a safe place. I feel ashamed, guilty, and embarrassed about that. It probably wasn't the right decision not to be somewhere in a place where I could help anyone, but fear and instinct sometimes take over. And before you become aware again, it's too late. Now I have to live with that and somehow forgive myself. My mom, my dad and one of my siblings are in a village near a Western city. It's relatively safe. My other sibling and I are outside of Ukraine with relatives. So that's it. Back home. I'm very confused about what to do next with my life. I have deep regret. I'm not in Ukraine now. And the last voice. Dear David, this is on the 12th. I don't know what to say is the best word that describes my feelings right now. We try to live a normal life hoping for the better. But remember in 2014 15 I had a plan, a backpack and felt myself prepared. This time I have no energy for doing anything, even for buying a flashlight. I've already said that the war could be compared to a natural disaster, like a tornado. There is not much you can do besides watching terrified what turn will it take the next second. My parents and husband's family are in an Eastern city spending most of the time in the basement. Luckily, they have one. Their city is under heavy artillery attack since today's morning, no water, no electricity streets fighting going on. Russian Nazis are trying to get the path to keep the bridges around the city are destroyed to prevent it. Our family has escaped Kiev yesterday. That was our decision to protect kids after the terrible night before the curve road, trying to avoid dangerous places to the Western Ukraine took almost 20 hours. We had a safe sleep at our friend's house and now are driving again. This person stopped writing to me was only able to do it by voice has told me since then they're in a safe place, but she feels tremendous guilt and unhappiness that she did not do more to try to get her parents to leave, and they're now stranded in a city in the East and cannot get out. So it's a serious thing but let me I just want to conclude by saying this person once there's there are times for humor. And this person and when speaking to me, they have with them a small puppy, which they brought with them she they said it's the only possession they've kept that means anything to them. And while she was talking to me in the home where she she's being hosted, there was a commotion in the next room, and it turned out the dog relieved himself on the living living room rug. And my friend said to me she's like, Oh my gosh, because you know, here we are in the house of these people have taken us in, my dog pooped on the rug, and everyone burst out laughing and for a moment, there was relief. Anyway, those are some of the voices from my contacts in Ukraine. Thank you so much, David very powerful. I think I can't even imagine the fear and guilt and the dread that that people feel when they're under fire, truly under fire. So what I'd like to do next is take up some of the questions that I'm calling out of the q&a. And the first one I think I'm going to ask Conrad if you would if you would maybe get us started and we'll see if others have comments but there are several questions about what could the US do what is the responsibility of the US and NATO to step in. Should we close the airspace should we. And again, not not what should we do, but definitely sort of what is the context in which these decisions get made. What about troops on the ground I know we have several military families who have joined us today who are very concerned about American troops on the ground and when that might come to pass so I don't know Conrad if you could give us a little framing for those kinds of decisions and and where they where they come from and then we'll see if others have have comments on that. I hasten to say that I am not a military expert by any stretch of the imagination but I can understand the point of view that that's using NATO planes which is planes from from each individual country that has those planes but is NATO acting in unison. How that could be just too much, because once you move NATO into a conflict. And you have a confrontation between a NATO plane and a Russian jet. It's a war, and it's a war between by definition between NATO and Russia. And we to the greatest extent possible Ukraine and clear about what it needs. We should provide it. If it's happens by if it's medicines now the hospitals are being are being bombed. It's clear they're going to need a rapid deployment I forget the exact name of these mobile hospitals. But for example, we can provide those things as for the planes. I mentioned a failure of imagination before, and not being an expert. I have to believe that there is something that we can provide that is going to help Ukraine to deal with the Russian flights over its airspace. I think I struggle balancing my intellectual understanding of the difficulties involved in in in engaging Russia in in a war with the US, but I also then am struggling balancing that against the emotional reality of of the Ukrainians experience so Thank you for that anyone else have thoughts on on David please. I think the biggest thing we need to do we have done very little on and that's to redouble our efforts to bring peace between Russia and Ukraine. We could do much much more on that we've been very quiet about that. And that is what is needed more than anything else other than the humanitarian aid and the medical aid. We need to redouble our efforts to bring about peace and into this war. So excellent so so just being much more forthright in in diplomacy and finding diplomatic solutions and. And I think I was speaking to someone yesterday and we were, we were thinking about the leadership of Zelensky in this moment President Zelensky in this moment. And, and trying to imagine his courage and stepping into that diplomatic space, unequivocally trying to, to find a solution for the people of Ukraine. Excellent. So that's another series of questions here about the role of Putin, and David maybe you can start us off but Janie if if we could hear from you as well David McFadden. Yeah, you know, noting someone has noted that Putin is nearly 70 years old and trying to imagine sort of what what his end game might be in terms of this as a as a as a strategy. Well, I think it's a very good point and the politics of resentment are all about Putin. He is trying, I think, personally to reverse the collapse of the Soviet Union. He would like to reclaim the Russian imperial control certainly over Ukraine and maybe beyond. And I think the only thing that's going to deal with that is the Russian people. And we need to support in every way we can the Russian people that are going to the streets against Putin. That is the only hope. I don't think they have a succession successor groomed but we've, you know, we have to get rid of Putin and I don't think assassination is appropriate but we have to get the people to demand that he leave. They need to learn, they need to learn John Locke and the Glorious Revolution. Tell the king to go away. Interesting. So, so Janie, you know, sort of that and and sort of piggybacking a question that's come up, sort of what what is Putin really afraid of it. He, we bring forward this idea that there is a fear of NATO getting too close to his borders, but Ukraine has never threatened Russia with any kind of certainly military engagement or territorial engagement. So, Janie, what are you, what are you thinking on that on that on that a question what what is it what is the fear about. Yeah, I would go back to the times that I spent in Finland and did research on Finnish diplomacy to try to find a way out at that time of the Cold War and it was really more than just the way out of the Cold War it was really a way sort of World War Two. So one of the paradoxes of the end of World War Two was that there really wasn't an end. Europe just got split up sort of de facto by whoever landed up in which territory and took over. And that left, you know, East Germany in the hands of the Soviet Union and Eastern European countries under the control of the Soviet Union. And a few, a few exceptional states outside of that that block structure of what ended up being NATO in the West and the Warsaw Pact in the East, and Finland and Sweden, you know, along with Austria and Switzerland were the neutral countries. And so I spent, you know, quite a bit of time studying what their diplomacy was in their perspective was and, and through, you know, that kind of lens to try to understand what was the concern on the part of the Soviet Union. My takeaway was that there was a real sense of fear on the part of the Soviet Union about this question of being encircled, you know, by by NATO by being confronted by NATO. At the same time, there was this tremendous fear in the West that the Soviets had all these conventional forces, vast tanks and armory and so on. And they could, you know, deploy those forces literally up to Western Europe and the Eastern Bloc and, and roll over Europe. And so I think, you know, there was this fear on both sides. And one of the strategies to balance, you know, these fears was to create a nuclear arms race, which of course put, you know, any kind of accommodation on the sides on a kind of hair's breadth. And I remember, you know, being myself, you know, in Europe and traveling different places and seeing the so called iron curtain and, and the specter that people painted of the, the tanks rolling the borders. And I think that as, as Putin, you know, mobilized all these forces around Ukraine in the last year or so and increasingly since December. There surely was a sense of disbelief on the part of the Ukrainians as David Schmitz, you know, remarks demonstrate. And also, from the West, like, this was the scenario. And like, how could it be that it was actually going to happen, you know, all these years later. And, you know, all these decades after the end of the Cold War, so I think it just demonstrates that the security architecture which emerged in the post Cold War period, you know, wasn't adequate to solve the question of the international security concerns. And, and I think we're just we're left with that reality that that that piece was not taken into account in a way that would have mitigated what's transpired and and I certainly agree that it looks like it's going to reinvent a Soviet era, you know that's long, long past. Part of the landscape, but at such a tremendous, tremendous cost. So, seeing him on TV, and his is broadcasted remarks about his justification for war on Ukraine. They were sort of chilling reminders of an encounter I had with the delegation meeting with Milosevic and, and that was, you know, before he unleashed a campaign of ethnic cleansing against the Kosovars and the plantation was also similar and I think Conrad said something about this about claims to history and, and there have been these distorted, you know, claims to history to bolster, you know, and justify what are acts of aggression and crimes against humanity and war crimes and, and genocide and, you know, we see also so quickly now investigations into, you know, war crimes and crimes against humanity so what kind of pressure can be brought to bear on person Putin personally in the circumstances probably the most important question, you know, before us. Yeah, thank you, Jenny that's that's that's great I'm going to pass it to I think I had Conrad and then David Schmidt. And also, I think I'm, I've been feeling a sense of powerlessness, not just of myself, but of my country, powerlessness of the West powerlessness of NATO Conrad, please and then we'll go to David Schmidt. Yeah, just briefly on Putin night. And before I say that I want to qualify I think it's important to keep our on the ball. And there really is not much we can do about Putin. What we can do is help Ukraine to to survive this terrible assault. And that said, I was wondering in the early days, what would motivate Putin to do something as as as crazy as risky as this. You know, the chief, the number one priority of any dictator is to stay in power, and preferably for life because the alternative might not be pretty. It's conceivable that he thought this would really clinch it for him. He had so much success before taking, taking property territory from Ukraine. And there was a relatively weak response in his view. He thought he could get away with this and that he had this incredible bump in the polls and that would be it. And I can think it doesn't mean he's making smart decisions about his future but he's thinking about how to stay in power. Kathy, the question about Putin succession raises another question and that is how will this war be concluded. And if they if Russia were to say today they're pulling out and you know it's done. Well, it's not it wouldn't be done you have a devastated country left in its wake. And we would face a whole set of questions about what our responsibilities are at that point I just want to point out that in ethics, there is a strong tradition of reflection on war, called the just war tradition, but it traditionally has focused on when is you decide to start a war by whom and under what conditions, and then when you're fighting. What are the rules of engagement, ethically, you know, what can you do and what can't you do to prosecute a war. Very little has been written until recently about what do you do when the war is over, and what ethically are the ways to wind things down. I don't want to get ahead of ourselves because I'm afraid this is going to go on for some time. But when we talk about things like succession and change and we're looking into the future. I want the West to remember when it's over it's not over. And our responsibilities continue. They, they must continue. David Schmidt I'm going to stay with you for just a quick minute. Another question that came up that I thought was really interesting from an interesting perspective. Maria asked how do those of us who come from families who fled repressive regimes speak to our neighbors and friends, born and raised in American democracy to help them understand what's at stake. David Schmidt, do you have any thoughts about how, how we can speak to friends and neighbors to help people understand what's at stake more than. Again, not trivial but 50 cents more gallon of gas is something that people can see and understand in the United States. But, but that the stakes are so much larger. That's hard to answer for for two reasons one is I'm not in her situation I I haven't fled a country with a repressive regime regime so I can only imagine, plus the quality of our political and civic discourse right now in the United States is not is not real healthy. And people, people get polarized and people get upset. I would simply say if someone has experience, direct personal experience that gives them a perspective on this, you can do everyone a favor. I think by by speaking to your own truth doesn't mean necessarily engaging an argument, it means bearing witness to saying this is what it was like for me. And simply put it out there so people can hear it. That's the first step, I think in dialogue and hopefully in building common understanding. But it's a challenge. I applaud her sentiment and I would and I would say if you can just speak up and bear witness. I think that's that's that's good advice. And hopefully we can all do that in speaking civilly and honestly with with one another as as we continue to talk about the war in Ukraine and its foundations and as as it may play out. Any other thoughts or comments from our panelists before we draw to a close. We've got loads of questions but we're really short on time here and I want to make sure there's nothing left that my panelists would like to add to the conversation. I would just simply say I think we're all acutely aware that this conversation needs to continue. And there's nothing I don't think there's anything to announce at this point, but I would like our audience to know that we envision having more panels or conversations like this, and I would ask people to stay posted. You can't cover it all in one afternoon. Very, very good and and we will be thinking about a next set of conversations that we can help to facilitate. Another question that's come up. If you can see my screen now. A question that's come up in the chat, people asking how they can donate where they can. And how they can be of service to to Ukraine I think there are two things. One, Fairfield Humanitarian Action Club, as Janie Leatherman as Dr Leatherman mentioned she is the director of the humanitarian action program here at Fairfield we have a humanitarian action program that is very active. And they have raised over $1500 already for Nova Ukraine. And I have here a link to that organization which is sending money for humanitarian aid. I also have noted that CNN has a variety of also that well vetted organizations to which you can contribute so we would commend you to those organizations to provide either money or or goods I've heard both from friends in Ukraine. One that they need money to be able to purchase things but to the supply chain is so compromised that it's difficult for them to get access even if they have money to resources. Conrad we lost you for a moment do you have a last word and we'll we'll draw to a close. Well thank you. I will go back to the earlier question about how do you talk to others. And I would encourage the viewers to tell stories and discuss and listen to their to their interlocutors and be positive. To the future. It's it's very difficult under the circumstances, but I see Ukrainians doing it all the time and I think that's something we can emulate. Think about the future. Thank you so much. And thank you to all the panelists and incredibly insightful set of comments and great responses to the questions. Thanks so much to the audience we were up over 130 people for a while so we had have great interest in this topic I know it's a great time for so many of us here in the US and wanting to know more about the conflict better understand our own role and also know how we can be of service so thanks to everyone today and please keep your eye out for further conversations that will plan over the next couple of months. Have a good afternoon.