 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, giving your body. Welcome to another edition of the Access to Trader.com nightly wrap up show. Hope everybody is doing well. Before we get started, just a moment of silence for Queen Elizabeth, 96 years old, amazing, amazing life passed away, passed away today. But again, 96 years old, God bless, may all of us have the ability to see life as long as she had. But you know, kind of, you know, kind of surreal. It's like you growing up, you always kind of saw her as the figurehead, right? Like the Queen. A lot of people call themselves the Queen. A lot of women call themselves the Queen. She was actually the Queen. So, you know, pretty, pretty somber moment as far as that. So say a little prayer for her. Anyway, let's talk about the market. So we've been below the 50 day moving average for eight days. We've been talking about this pretty much on a regular basis that doesn't make a difference how much we're building underneath the 50 day moving average. You're going to have scenarios and days and times that the market is going to rally just because again, nothing goes straight down. We've kind of illustrated this ever since we broke the 50 day moving average the first time around. Yes, you can have an ultimate sell buys, but you're going to have two, three days worth of buying just because again, nothing goes straight down. And just the way buyers get tired at the top, sellers get tired. Well, I don't want to call the bottom, but on the bottom channels. And that's exactly what we've seen on the first move down on the 50 day moving average. Here's your rallies, more lowers. Here's your rallies, more lows. Here's your rallies and so forth and so on. And that's exactly what we're getting this time around as well for now, right for now. So we've been below the 50 day moving average. This is day eight tomorrow will be day nine. So that's two full weeks of losing the 50 day and now building the 50 day. But it was actually a pretty impressive thing with the bulls have done the last couple of days. Yesterday we started noticing that pre-market, even with the futures up a little bit, up a little bit and then down a little bit. A lot of the prices weren't moving down. And that was kind of a big clue. Not because, you know, we're talking about this is the bottom. We don't know where the bottom is. We have no idea where tops or bottoms are trying to predict the future. That's not what it's all about. We're just trying to facilitate the data and kind of drag it into the next trading day. So we saw, you know, some pretty decent stability and the problem with decent stability is even if you get a dead cat bounce, and I've kind of talked about this in nausea, but even when you get a dead cat bounce going into yesterday's session, you knew because we are seven, eight days below the 50 day moving, you're not going to have any room, right? You're just not going to have any room. So when you saw yesterday's rally for the first probably two, three hours, right? And then kind of a stagnant from there on, you kind of saw that, yes, some stocks were up and then they came back down. Stocks were up and they came back down. And then you had the Apple event, right? Apple event came on nothing really crazy, right? They had an $800 iWatch. They talked about some neat features about maybe detecting a car accident. I'll tell you one thing. I don't need a gimmick on my wrist to tell me I've been in a car accident. The fact that my head would go through a windshield would be my first clue. But hey, to each his own, if you want to spend money on that damn thing, you could. But the point was the market did rally yesterday and put in its first close above the five day moving average, which has got not a huge, huge deal, but at least shows you who potentially has control over the shortest term sentiment. Again, if you've been watching this broadcast for any amount of years or any amount of months, you kind of know how important the five day is. So it was really, really important for the bulls to kind of reclaim yesterday's channels. So we opened lower today. If you guys remember, the queues were down, you know, $3, nearly three bucks today at the open. And there was some testimony, whatever the hell it was, from the Fed chairman. And, you know, went up and went down and went up and went down. And we wanted just to make sure that we wanted to give the bulls at least some sort of benefit of the doubt. Just because we did reclaim the five day moving average. And that's exactly what happened today. Kudos to the bulls. Not only did they reclaim yesterday's channels, they had a pretty decent run into this 10 day moving average, which got stopped right into supply, which was, again, that's kind of the whole point. You see here, the last time we went into the 10 day moving average, we got stuffed as well. The only difference between today and the last time we got stuffed in the 10 day moving average. Again, keep this in mind. This is all happening below the 50 day moving average. This was a pretty volatile session. So usually I wouldn't, you know, kind of illustrate anything on the five minute channel, but the 60 minute chart really doesn't do its justice. So if you look at the five minute view, right, this is the five minute view of today's action, right? So we gapped out. We had a big, big gap down. Queues were down three bucks at the open. Then they reclaimed yesterday's channels and rallied all the way up to the 10 day moving average. All week to get faded off that 10 day moving average, getting just absolutely annihilated at lunchtime. Literally, the queues went from 302 to about 297. This is all within one hour, only to hold the bottom channel, start rallying up again, and now putting in its highest move, right? Putting in its highest move in this whole channel here. So that's a crazy day, right? You know, people talk about, you know, you want excitement, there's your excitement, right? There's a bit too much excitement from my blood. But the point is, again, you're not trading the whole day trying to figure out the closing price. You're just trying to figure out where's your safest interval. Obviously, preferably it's going to be in the morning. That morning session is from 9.30 to about one o'clock. And then you kind of want to get out the way because channels, again, will contract. You'll have some spin cycle news come out of left field. You get some headlines from the Fed, from our government, from anything across that you could possibly think of. And things become very, very aggressive. We don't want that. So I'm usually kind of done prior to that one o'clock channel. So the good thing that we saw that was different between today's fade off the 10 day versus this fade, this fade never recovered, right? This fade never recovered and ultimately caused technical damage with all the 50 day moving average. This fade did, right? This fade, and again, to kind of show you from the channel here, this fade did, got all the way down, had a $5 move and then recovered almost to the point that we're a dollar away or less than a dollar away from today's highs, which kind of brings it into a very interesting point going into tomorrow's session. Now, again, if we're looking at the big picture, this is kind of what we talk about macro directional bias. We all know that for us to go buy bias, I'm talking about risk on putting on inventory, putting on overnights, we're going to need to get above the 50 day moving average. Because the last time, again, for all you guys are joining us here that are new, the last time we reclaimed the 50 day moving average started a risk on cycle that lasted for a month. Again, didn't go straight up the same way the sell off is not going straight down, but had a really, really big run for a month. So that's kind of where we are. So we know for us to get buy biased and start putting on risk again on the overnights, we're going to need to reclaim the 50 day moving average. We're not there yet. The 50 day moving average as of today is roughly around 306 level. So for the bulls to feel at least pretty good about themselves going into the Christmas season, we're going to need to reclaim the 50 day moving average at 306. We're not there. Our first job, or their first job, again, for us, we trade both sides of the market, doesn't make a difference. But for the bull's job for tomorrow or sometime in the next couple of days, don't give this back, right? Don't give this back. Start reclaiming above today's highs, which is 302, right? If they could reclaim offer 302, then we got measured potential move possibly even for tomorrow into this 304.5 level and then ultimately trying to test this 50 day supply again at this 306. Is it possible? Is it not possible? We don't need, we don't know to be determined, but at least we know our levels, right? We absolutely know our levels. The only problem is, and this is kind of the whole point of understanding technical analysis, we've seen multiple rallies, right? We've seen multiple rallies several times within the last bear market cycle below the 50 day moving average. And as impressive they were for two, three, maybe even four days, they gave it right back shortly after. And that's such a very important point to understand. We don't know, right? We don't know if this is the bottom of the range. We don't know. Again, like we said, we only take everything day by day. You know, we're not trying to figure out where Apple is going to close October the 38th. I'm obviously joking, but I'm not. Everybody knows it's only 37 days in October. But the point is we're trying to get the data that the research is giving us on a closing basis and trade from a practical point of view the next day. So, for example, I know for example, for tomorrow, if there is a rally and we get rejected once again off today's highs and we don't reclaim today's highs, that is going to be a red flag. It's going to be a red flag in an overall self-signal environment. But if the bulls do come around and start reclaiming that 302 level, which is the high from today's session and reclaim the 10-day moving average for all you guys who've been watching the workshops and whatever the case may be, you know that I call the 10-day moving average the birth of the trade. That's just the birth of the trade short-term indicator that if that level is confirmed and today you can see it got rejected, if that level can confirm then we can continue to the next supplies on which will be roughly 304.5, followed by 306 do or die level on the 50-day moving average. But before we put the cart in front of the horse, again, baby steps, right? Absolutely baby steps. So, yeah, tomorrow's going to be kind of important for the bulls. The last thing the bulls need or want or desire is for the cues to lose to today's channels on the bottom, right? If we start losing back that 295 level on a close for tomorrow, let's just say we gap and we get rejected, if we start losing back below that 295 level on a close well then that means the bearers will reclaim back the 5-day moving average and then next week we will start looking at lower prices just the same way stocks work on the opposite side of the range. Whatever gets confirmed first, that's the directional bias that the next day will take place. So, yeah, I think tomorrow is kind of an important day for the bulls to see if they can prolong the rally. The bear's job for tomorrow is to reject them at the 10-day moving average again and start confirming today's lows of roughly 295 for a destination back to this week's lows of 291. We'll see, right? So the upside 302 to the downside 295 macro and if you look at a lot of trades today, especially from the technology space, again, I did it for a reason that I didn't want to put in a lot of pivots today, right? Because I thought about it this way and I said to myself, well, what's the point of putting 10-12 pivots on everybody to watch? Today was either going to be a scenario that either everything was going to reclaim, right? Either the Q's are going to reclaim and pull everything up or everything is going to get rejected and go down. So I literally put the Q's, Tesla, snow. Again, snow has been a big, big runner. NVIDIA coming off the bottom and AMD had a really nice bottom-looking chart as well because I figured, look, one goes, they all go and that's kind of exactly what happened today. Ironically, what led the rally up yesterday was Apple. And guess what? For the darnest reason today, it was actually the laggard down on the day. So go figure, right? Go figure. But again, it really does speak to the strength of the bulls today. They got rejected off the 10-day moving average and yet they recovered, ugly as it was. $5 sell-off after that fade, but they recovered and they closed literally a dollar away from today's channel that will be super important today. So again, only four pivots today. Q's are really good. Tesla are really good. Snow is really good. NVIDIA was okay. And AMD was an absolute monster. I'm sure there was other names that were very, very strong. But again, we wanted to make sure we were looking at the market the right way and not bombarding everybody with 200 different stocks because again, at the end of the day, remember, if you watch everything, you're going to miss everything. And the most important part is every single day, look at the stocks that you want to trade, look at the stocks that you want to watch. And the most important part is trade it with a lot of confidence because technicals are telling you it's a green or red light, not because your opinion or emotion. So let's talk about this. QQQ needs to confirm yesterday's channel, 300 for potential, 303 move for the ETF lovers. Here's the 300, right? And beautiful push. I mean, really, really beautiful push. Once the Q's got above that 300 level, and you can see here, right? Once the Q's got above that 300 level, really, really big move, it stopped literally $0.1520 away from the ultimate, ultimate supply on the 10-day moving average on the Q's. But a $2 move on a nice move, really, really nice move on the Q's. Again, we know the importance tomorrow. Tesla 284 and 28550 needs to confirm for a 288, 290 potential build if the market continues today. That's exactly what Tesla did. It took out 84, which is yesterday's channel, took out 8530, which was the high, the three areas where it got rejected pre-market over here, and it stopped right at 290. Again, if it confirms today's action tomorrow as a possible, Tesla gets 293, 295. If the market gets one more day, hey, why not, right? Why not? So we're definitely going to keep an eye on that as well. Snow continues to be a monster. 5079 needs to build. Here was snow, right here was snow. So it took out this whole channel here, this 79, this 179 area trading the next supply zone to 182. It would need to get above that 182.5, 183 for next possible move to 187, but at least for today, a nice little push there as well. The video, nice push, right? 134.40s needs to build. There's a little bit supply, 138.80s, so it needs to build 139. Put in a move into the 140 area. It's going to need to get above today's channel. You can see this linear regression line here. It's going to need to pretty much build over 140 tomorrow for a potential move to that 141.70, and if the market stretches out more, 43.80s. And this is definitely the biggest move of the day. AMD, 81 needs to build. Man, what a rockstar today, right? What an absolute rockstar. So AMD took out this channel, took out this channel. The high here is $80.89. Started building 81 and just absolutely exploded to 83.45. For this thing to continue, it's going to really need to get above that 83.70, 84 area for another potential move to 85.20s, which is kind of correlated to the 10-day moving average as well. That's it, guys. That's it. Today is Thursday. Tomorrow is Friday. Tonight is opening night of the NFL. Super duper excited. First half of the game, I will be at my daughter's soccer game. Again, priorities. Thank God for cell phones. You can watch stuff everywhere now. Guys, have a great night, everybody. God bless. Hope everybody's safe, happy, and sound, and healthy. And with God's help, I'll see you all tomorrow. Take care.