 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, give me your buddy. Welcome to another edition of theAxisandTrader.com Nightly Rapid Show. Happy Monday. Hope everybody is doing well. Raining here all day. Can't let the weather dampen you down. All your emotions, all that stuff, because it kind of flows into your trading. You've got to be really, really focused. But yes, the weather sucks here. It's in New Jersey. I'm sure there's a lot of parts in the Northeast that are soaked as well. But again, here we are. Life goes on. So let's talk about the tape. So we talked about on the weekend video, the importance of the bottom channel here of 369 on the Qs. Well, it helped again. Okay, that's the good news. It held it again. You can see the pre-market lows today. It held it again. You had some headlines coming out prior to the open, you know, all over the place. You had some macro headlines. Noreo Rabini supported an economist. He warned about a 10% potential plunge for the stock market going into the latter part of the year in early 2024. You had Morgan Saley analyst. Wilson told his clients that they're in for a rocky potential 2024. You had Goldman Sachs coming out ahead of the day today, trimming the estimates on the 2023-2024 earnings of Tesla. You had a lot of negative connotations to start day. As you can imagine a couple of days before the FOMC meeting, a lot of traders weren't really that too enthusiastic to make a stand. You could see that very, very clearly and very early in the options market. No really big bets one way or another. A lot of traders are waiting for the FOMC minutes to see exactly where they stand with that. Probably it's going to be another rise with the language followed of, well, we're still monitoring inflation. We still don't like where it is, blah, blah, blah, blah. We continue to act based on resolution and based on data that we select. I don't think anything is going to be crazy. But the point is we are still stuck in this range. I think that's the most important part as far as if you're an intraday trader or even a wing trader, whatever the case may be, we are stuck within channels. We talked about this 378 level to the upside in the queues and now the queues have held 369 three separate times. Again, if you haven't figured out what the line in the sand is for the bearers, well, it's the line in the sand is this 369 level. If the bulls can give up this 369 level, we're going to go lower. We're going to go absolutely lower. If the bearers can give up this 378 level, we're going to go higher. Until then, we are stuck. This stinks from the point of macro resolution. It does think because if you look at today's session, you had some stocks were good, right? Some stocks were good. Some stocks were bad. Some stocks were kind of in between. You had Amazon weak. You had Microsoft weak. You had Apple very, very strong today. You can make it argument that a debt cat bounce from the bottom range, but nevertheless, very, very strong. Apple after Goldman cut its estimates. It was weak in the video. We talked about this on the weekend. If it could lose potentially Friday's channel, it could get hit. Well, unfortunately, it got hit. I didn't get a chance to trade it because it was up like a dollar and change pre-market. The next thing I went down to, it just went down 10. It just went down 10. I went as low as the 420. Unfortunately, I wasn't able to get it because the whole move happened pre-market. But if you got some congratulations, but it was very impressive that NVIDIA kind of rebounded, just manned up, remounted, and one green in a day. Is it possible to get a second kind of debt cat bounce day tomorrow? Sure, absolutely. The stock has gotten hit from this 451 level all the way down to 420. What it really needs to do is recapture this five-day moving average. If you look at the chart, it keeps on getting rejected off the five days. I'd like to see if there's a potential debt cat bounce tomorrow into the five-day, and we'll make some adjustments towards there. Other than that, if you look at the rest of the semiconductor group, you had, again, nice little bounces. Stocks have gotten really, really hit. AMAT, stock like Texan hasn't been doing very, very well, but it's starting to kind of rebalance. But more important is kind of the disconnect. This has kind of been the theme of 2023. If you look at where kind of some of the strength was today, it was some insurance things. A lot of things are going to jump out the page. But if you look at AFLAG, if you look at MetLife, if you look at AIG, right? They're holding up relatively very well. A lot of the financial names actually held up. A big disconnect in technology games. Retail continues to get hit. Let me look at calls, right? It continues to get hit. So we're kind of all over the place. And this is where when you look at spies and when you look at the cues, they've given you pretty much a mirrored image of what you're seeing with all these different groups, some strong, some weak. And this is why we can get out of this range because all of these groups have to be in the same direction. So we continue to watch on the spies. We continue to watch this 442 area to the downside. We continue to watch QQQ's 369 to the downside as well. It's going to be very, very important going into, especially the FOMC minutes to kind of understand where your levels are. So 378 to the upside, 369 to the downside. Would it shock me to have one more slower day tomorrow? Yeah, nothing shocks me. Again, I still think you can get some pretty good value every single day. So for example, today we had Tesla in the room, right? Tesla, we lost the 5-day, 470 got down to 463. I'm going to watch Tesla, right? I'm going to watch Tesla for tomorrow. If it can lose the 10-day moving average, there's a good chance that it gets hit. So there's a two-sided request here on Tesla. Again, I always look at the stock. I don't look at it, which I'm not biased on direction. So if it can reclaim the upside, which is a 5-day moving average, you definitely want to go along. If it loses the 10-day moving average, which is the birth of the trade, obviously you want to take a short position. Some names. I started swings in on over the weekend. Let's start off with the one that's not working yet. Car gurus, I started shorting this thing on Friday. Not a big move. It was only up 22 cents, basically anemic volume inside day. As long as it doesn't reclaim the 5-day moving average, I'm going to let the swing play out. If it starts losing this bottom channel from Friday's lows, it should go lower. But the one that really did well today, we talked about this on the video, was Peloton, right? Shorted Peloton. This was the earnings lows. That's kind of been my bread and butter swings for years and years and years. But Peloton, what we talked about on the weekend video, lost this earnings lows at 505 area. And today, almost an 8.5% move to the downside. Really, really good move. I'm still holding the runner for maybe a potential $4 move for the next foreseeable future. Would be nice, but would be nice. But this one definitely worked out very, very well. Square was another name broke down today below its earnings lows. This thing looks like it's going low on prices. There's a couple of names. I want to give you guys a couple of names to watch over the next several days. Again, my favorite setups continue to be, at least on swing potential. Or these earnings lows, look at Goodyear Tire. Again, it's not sexy, right? Peloton is not a sexy trait. It's not a sexy type of symbol, but it's effective. And again, guys, once these things start losing their earnings lows, they just drift for days and weeks. So I'm watching Goodyear Tire again. It doesn't necessarily have to confirm tomorrow, but I'm definitely watching Goodyear Tire through this bottom range. Look at a name like Domo, right? Same thing. Again, it doesn't necessarily have to trigger tomorrow. But again, if this thing starts taking earnings lows, this thing looks really good as well. Look at a name, for example, like Overstock, right? Overstock had a big move down on earnings. And this thing is very close to losing its earnings lows. I definitely want to watch this thing for the next couple of days. And a name like Letter U, right? Letter U today, it almost broke down today. It got saved by the Bollinger Band. I want to watch the bottom of this channel here for the next couple of days. If this thing starts breaking down, well, we can get a bigger move to the downside. And I know it feels like all I've been talking about is short, short, short, short, short in the last couple of days. But look at these charts. I mean, show me a really good-looking chart, right? I mean, if you could find something in the technology space, something just in tech in general, I would love to listen. But boy, oh boy, it's very, very tough to find good-looking charts when the cues are straddling the bottom of the range. Now, if you were in the top of the range, it would be a whole different conversation, right? Because more stock to be trading to the top of the range in the bottom. But since we're on the bottom, you know, again, it's not that I'm bearish. I'm just taking the information that I'm getting at the close and applying it for the next trading day. So going into tomorrow, again, we know the macro levels on the cues. I'm watching Tesla potentially a two-sided trade. If it reclaims the five-day, I will go long. If it loses today's channel on the 10-day, I will go short. I like overstock. I'm watching for tomorrow. I'm watching this Goodyear Tire, this Double for potential earnings lows plays. Peloton, I'm keeping a runner. This CarGurus, I'm going to give it a couple more days to let it play out. But more importantly, guys, again, we are, you know, a couple of days away from the FOMC. Again, I don't think we're going to see dramatic order flow one way or another. Again, I could be absolutely wrong, but I don't think we're going to see dramatic order flow one way or another ahead of the FOMC minutes. But we'll see. We'll see. We're always optimistic. So that's it, guys. We know our levels. Today was a little bit more quiet than normal. If you traded Tesla, let's say, good job. If you traded some of the video, let's say, great job. If you came along Peloton, great job. Now we're just babysitting our CarGurus and seeing exactly what happens next. Guys, everybody, have a great night. Stay blessed, everybody. God bless. Stay healthy. Until tomorrow.