 Russia's threat to NATO has increased, and war seems inevitable. Several Russian financial, economic and military indicators suggest that Russia is preparing for a large-scale conventional conflict with NATO, not imminently, but likely on a shorter timeline than what some Western analysts have initially posited. That's according to the Institute for the Study of War, the ISW believes that Putin is likely attempting to set conditions to stabilise Russia's long-term financial position at a higher level of government expenditure. The International Monetary Fund assessed that Russia's GDP will grow by 2.6% in 2024 and reported that Russia's GDP grew faster than all group of seven countries' economies in 2023. The timeline for the reconstitution of a significant Russian conventional military threat depends heavily on the financial resources Putin is willing to put against military efforts. He likely understands that financial crackdowns against wealthy industrialist Siloviki, Russian strongmen with political influence, could risk the political rapport Putin has built with them and is trying to mitigate those consequences. The report emphasises that Putin's attempts to set conditions to stabilise Russia's economy and finances are most likely part of Russian financial and domestic preparations for a potential future large-scale conflict with NATO and not just for a protracted war in Ukraine. The Russian military continues to undertake structural reforms to simultaneously support the war in Ukraine while expanding Russia's conventional capabilities in the long-term in preparation for a potential future large-scale conflict with NATO, the report said. Sergei Shoigu earlier outlined several ongoing efforts to bolster Russia's conventional military capabilities, more likely as part of Russia's long-term effort to prepare for a potential conventional war with NATO than as part of the war against Ukraine. The ISW believes that Russia currently lacks the manpower, military infrastructure and training capacity to properly staff several entirely new divisions to army-level formations to full-end strength in the immediate to medium-term. ISW analysts also added that ongoing personnel changes within the Russian Defence Ministry might be further indicators of Russia's preparations for a conflict in the long-term. Putin needs refineries in Novopoltsk and Mazir of Belarus. Ukrainian drones may fly there. A tenth of fuel production in the Russian Federation has been paralysed as a result of Ukrainian attacks. This is a serious blow to the Russian economy. The Charter 97 website spoke about this with Ukrainian military political observer of the Information Resistance Group, Oleksandr Kovalenko. Firstly, the shocks affected the export of Russian petroleum products, which is the main item in filling the Russian budget. Secondly, internal economic destabilisation occurred, which is already manifesting itself very eloquently. It affected domestic civilian and commercial consumers. Gasoline prices are rising, queues are lining up for it. In a number of settlements and in some places, there is a shortage. Kovalenko added. However, the Russian authorities do not pay much attention to civilians. But if the commercial component begins to suffer, then this again is an impact on the budget that finances the war against Ukraine. Thirdly, a blow was also struck to the supply of fuel and lubricants to the Russian occupation forces. Here I will immediately emphasise that Putin will sacrifice anything. Civilians, commerce, he may not even fill ambulances, but everything will be sent to war. Damaged plants, refinery stations and transport hubs currently do not provide the full volume of petroleum products, processing as well as their transit. The length of delivery of fuels and lubricants increases. The Russian occupying forces are beginning to feel a progressive deficit, but the first signs are already happening against the backdrop of a collapse in exports and a deficit for domestic consumers. Such attacks are effective. They will continue if only for the reason that the restoration of any of these oil refineries in itself is unacceptable. In addition, there are several refineries left in the near-affected area that should be taken out of operation. The experts said, perhaps Russia will use the Belarusian oil refineries in Mazir and Navapolatsk for its needs. Is there a possibility that some unidentified UAV will fly to these objects? According to the expert, it is possible that Putin will use them, but they will not be able to compensate for the dozens of Russian refineries that have failed or are temporarily out of order. This will be some kind of situational compensation that will not have a critical impact on the resumption of supply to the domestic consumer in the Russian Federation or the occupying army. On the other hand, if this facility takes part in this kind of support and supply, then who knows? In Belarus, after all, there are partisans who act in the interests of the Belarusian people and not the Lukashenko regime. It is possible that something could happen there too, Kovalenko said.