 Felly, mae'n gweithio yng Nghymru 5 o'r fideo sy'n gweithio'r cymryd yng Nghymru yn gweithio'r gweithio yn gweithio'r gweithio'r modl mosmod. Mae'r gweithio yng nghymru yw yw'r gweithio'r modl mosmod yn gwybodol. RALLYM PAU POWER 2014 SEIS that we'll cover what is microsimulation, what is modl mosmodd, what does modd do, how does modd work and then a final session that will outline what the rest of the training sessions will look like and the rest of the videos. Rwy'n dechrau bod ardal i'r cyn 거는 mewn dda, Mitten et al have produced a very nice definition. Microsimulation models use micro data on persons or households, firms, or other micro units and simulate the effect of changes in policy or other changes on each of these units. The differences before and after the change can be analysed at the micro level to show the overall effect of the change. Felly, ydych chi'n gweithio eich diagramaethau? First of all, you take a household survey basically that has details of family structure, income and expenditure and then you apply to that household survey a system of rules which reflect the policy systems and taxes and on social benefits and that generates an output file which allows one to assess the impacts on individuals in various ways the impacts on poverty and inequality, the impacts on redistribution. Okay, so what can micro simulation models be used for? Micro simulation can be used to answer questions such as how does the current tax and social benefits system impact on individuals in different groups for example different income groups or different family types? And also, to what extent does the current system of social benefits reduce poverty and inequality? It's possible with a micro simulation model to simulate the current situation with the current social benefits system switched on and also with them switched off and the difference will be the impact of the current system on poverty and inequality. What will be the cost of implementing different social security policy reforms? For example, if you wanted to modify the rules to such and such a social benefit how much would that cost? If you were wanting to introduce a new cash transfer, how much would that cost? But also allow you to model how you might raise those resources through the taxes direct and indirect that you are simulating. And of course, when you introduce new policies you can look at what the impact would be on poverty and inequality. Okay, moving forwards, what is the relationship between MOSMOD and other micro simulation models? Well, MOSMOD is a static tax benefit micro simulation model which is a particular kind of micro simulation model which gives you the so to speak immediate impacts of reforms. It's based on an existing model platform called the Euromod platform and the Euromod has been developed over a 20 year period by Professor Holly Sutherland and her colleagues at the University of Essex and is currently used in over 25 countries in Europe. The Euromod platform is very flexible and there is a current UNU wider collaboration of which MOSMOD forms part and so I'll say a little bit about that collaboration The collaboration is known as SouthMOD and it's a collaboration between Essex University, UNU wider and Southern African Social Policy Research Insights which is called SASBRI. It's a major research programme which tax benefit micro simulation models for selected developing countries in Africa and elsewhere have been built or are in the process of being built. The outcome of the work will be a set of models for individual countries and research papers that contain simulation analysis of tax and benefit reforms. Another important outcome that's not actually listed on this slide is that there will be training and support in getting these models used in the respective countries by those interested in policy reforms and that will include government as well as academia. SASBRI as a Southern African organisation is working with local partners to develop models for MOSMOD Tanzania and Zambia and actually SASBRI has been working in the area of micro simulation and using the EuroMOD platform in developing countries for over 10 years now starting with the model for South Africa SA MOD and then later the model for Namibia NAMOD and updating those models has been also part of SASBRI's SouthMOD activity and together with the models for MOSMOD Tanzania and Zambia it means we've now got five models using the same platform within the Sadec region, which is really quite important. Okay, let's now talk a bit about the Mozambican model. It's a standalone user-friendly interface and the model workings are transparent with the user having full control over the simulations carried out. As I've indicated, that's really important to us and the SouthMOD collaboration because we're very keen that these models are actually used in the countries where they've been developed and used by policy makers themselves as well as academics and so forth without having to have recourse to commissioning expensive consultant based research in order to carry out simulations and the fact that the models are transparent and the fact that the user has full control over the simulations carried out enables that to take place. Obviously, as we'll see through these training sessions one has to learn how to use the EuroMOD interface but having mastered it then it gives incredible power to the user. The current version 1.0 of MOSMOD is underpinned by the EOF 2008-9 but it can be updated with new data and policy reforms when required. Indeed, the intention is that during this year the EOF 2014-15 will become the underpinning data set. OK, talking about MOSMOD data the first step, as you'll remember back in the slide where I talked about micro simulation generally the first step is to select and prepare an appropriate micro data set will be data that has information on the incomes and expenditures of individuals in a representative survey of households and as I've indicated the current version of MOSMOD is underpinned by the EOF 2008-9 which represents the characteristics of the Mozambican population in that year. The data is a representative sample of 51,177 people living in 10,832 households in Mozambique and the weights from that survey are used to calculate national figures from the simulations. OK, the next step is to have a series of policy rules which can be applied to the individuals in the data to determine what social transfers they are entitled to and what taxes they should pay. So, first of all, in order to simulate a policy we have to be able to translate the rules into a format that can be understood by the model and we'll come to that during the course of these training sessions and make sure that we can collect the information needed to apply the rules from within the data set, from within the EOF but has to be said that there are data constraints that EOF wasn't designed to be the underpinning data set to MozMod and indeed there will be conditions of entitlement that apply to certain of the policies or to the taxes that are not contained within the data set and we have to make assumptions regarding those conditions when we develop policies within the model and we have to make those assumptions explicit and there's an accompanying country report that goes with the models which details the assumptions that we've had to make. That's part of that transparency I talked about earlier. The moment we've got policy rules for the year 2015 incorporated into MozMod version 1.0 but 2016 and 2017 will be added as part of this year's SouthMod activity. So what policies have we got? Well we have some social assistance and social insurance policies in particular the social assistance policies of direct social support in the direct social support programme and in the basic social support programme. We've also got social insurance contributions modelled for the private sector and self-employed and for the public sector. And then in terms of direct and indirect taxes we have income tax, that's the PAYE for people with income from salaries and wages. So-called simplified tax which is a turnover tax from self-employment if the annual turnover is less than 2.5 million metacals per annum. Then we have personal income tax for income for other sources other than PAYE and those are the direct taxes and then indirect taxes we have excise duty for a limited number of items alcoholic drinks, tobacco products fuel tax and value added tax. But part of this training will be to review any other policies that need to be implemented for 2016 and 2017. OK, that's the policies that MOSMOD currently simulates. As I've indicated there will be some existing policies that are not simulated and they will be mainly because we don't have sufficient information in the EOF but there may be ones that we can simulate that through the course of this training will be identified and can be incorporated during the course of this year. Now it is a static model so it does not simulate changes in behaviour. So for example if there was a social transfer that was implemented that gave adults who were not in employment some income then it may well be that that income would stimulate their opportunities of finding work and they would then use the money to seek jobs and get into work and therefore increase more revenue through paying taxes and also come off the system. That's a behavioural impact. We do not cover behavioural impacts and the reason is that they require all kinds of assumptions that we can't be sure of and so we favour a static micro simulation model because we are then making the smallest number of assumptions. We can go on later and take the output of a static model and do other things with it as I'll indicate in a minute. It also does not take into account any macro economic effects the focus is on the direct impact on households. However as I indicated the output from the model can be used as a starting point for more complex analyses involving behavioural change and micro linkages. Okay, that's what it can't do. Let's now start looking at the model itself. That's the user interface. I'm going to show some of this live as well so I can move to the next screen and this is when you launch MozMod, this is what you see when you press on the Mozambican flag you then get a display of the different policies and I'll explain those in more detail in a minute. I'm going to enlarge it slightly before coming back to the presentation. That's exactly what I showed you in the actual live model. Remember we prepared data using the EOF. That takes the form of a text file which is supplied with the model but new data sets can be added and existing ones are mended and as I indicated we'll be doing that during the course of 2017. The model program stores all the model parameters and allows the user to make changes and run simulations and that interface is where the parameters are described and where the changes are made and then the output in text format can be analysed using a statistical package or one of the built-in tools to generate some of that information that we're talking about like the impact of policy reform on poverty and inequality. The user interface I'll just go through this slide to indicate it in more detail and then go to the actual model and take you through that in a brief way. First of all there are seven tabs along the top which open up to reveal a ribbon menu and I won't use many of the tools that are in those tabs but I will briefly go through them in a second. The tax benefit system for Mozambique for different policy years in fact it's only for 2015 for Mozambique at the moment is described in this column that's headed policy but they're all collapsed at the moment so they just really list the policies. Again I'll show you them in an uncollapsed way in a moment and then there's the runMozmod button which is used to run the model and again that will go through that in a later training session Let me now move to the model itself and show you some of those things. First of all these tabs countries is where you are with countries. Display gives you various options relating to display we don't use many of these you can for example when you're producing a new system a so-called reform system switch on conditional formatting you can identify at a glance the changes you've made and I'll talk about that again when I talk to people through the model in the fifth of these videos. Then there are country tools where you can add a new system this column here mz-2015 is a system again I'll talk about that in a later session is where you can delete a system as well those are two that we sometimes use though there are other ways to add a system the up rating in disease is probably the most important thing we use in this particular tab again we'll go through that later then there are administration tools here the variables tool is the most important things like adding countries and so forth very important for Euromod not important for us so that's probably the only administration tool we use add-ons these are add-ons particularly for Euromod there are some specific add-ons being developed for SouthMod so at the moment these don't apply then applications the opening and output data file in Excel is one that we use a lot and the summary statistics is also being developed specifically for SouthMod and isn't yet functional ok so there are the tabs and that's back to the beginning here are all the policies and there's a description of the policies in English now if I widen that a little bit I can actually show you that the policies themselves are actually quite elaborate but this is not to terrify anyone it's just simply to say that you simply click in a nested way to get down to the actual detail of the policy and then you can edit the policies in the cells as required so that's ok let's go further in the presentation how might MossMod be used well we don't know specifically about Mozambique but we can give some examples from how it's been used in South Africa a youth benefit for the National Department of Social Development has been simulated a care as benefit a non means tested universal pension again for the Department of Social Development and National Treasury and most recently a non means tested universal child benefit to replace the current means tested child support grant that's available in South Africa particularly these last two are part of the plans to develop a more comprehensive social security system in South Africa and similar things might be applicable in Mozambique now that really concludes this session in the rest of the training course will cover getting started with MozMod the tax and benefit policies introducing new policies and amending existing one and analysing the output data there will be videos that accompany the first three of those bullet points not the analysing the output data but there will be a fourth video which is talking through the whole model so that you'll have a permanent oral record of that thank you very much these are the SouthMod countries and their flags and that's the logos of the participants in the MozMod program I should have specifically mentioned that the ILO are supporting the training in Mozambique thank you