 To share, you know, Washington, we're so filled with kind of sour news these days. I had the privilege of sitting next to the Afghanistan Ambassador, Ambassador Hakimi tonight, and he was just sharing with me the excitement that he felt personally about the election that we've had in Afghanistan. Seven million people voted in this election. Thirty-five percent of them were women. And, you know, this is a place where it's dangerous to vote. Here in this country, you know, if the line's too long, coming behind the polling station, we turn around and leave. You know, in this country, people stayed for hours risking their lives so that they could have a vote in their own future. And I don't remember who it was that said it. It says, we don't yet know who won the election because there might be a runoff, but we'd know who lost, and that was the Taliban. And I think we should just, with a little bit of applause, congratulate the Afghanistan. Carla, let me ask you to come up and get our program going for real. And I just want to say thanks to you and Big Brzezinski for co-chairing the advisory board. And thank you very much, Carla. We are so fortunate to have John Hamry in charge of CSIS. And I hope all of you have enjoyed your dinner conversation and the meeting outside of what I regard as a beautiful vista, as much as I. But we're privileged tonight to have this evening with us, Norway's Minister of Foreign Affairs, the Honorable Borga Brendi. Minister Brendi has had a long and distinguished career in government, having previously served as Norway's Minister of Trade and Industry, a position to which I relate very strongly, and the Ministry of the Environment. He's also held very important positions outside of the government, including as Managing Director of the World Economic Forum, Secretary-General of the Norwegian Red Cross and Chairman of the UN Commission on Sustainable Development. Our topic this evening and for our advisory board is the geopolitics of energy. As you all know, Norway is an important producer and exporter of oil and natural gas. It occupies a strategically important geopolitical position with respect to its neighbors, Russia, and the European Union and its proximity to ongoing developments in the Arctic. Minister Brendi has graciously offered to provide us with a Norwegian perspective on geopolitical geopolitics of energy. And I might say this is not a new topic for him before his appointment as Minister of Foreign Affairs. He served on the board of directors of Norway's Stat Oil. A leading international oil and gas company. And before I invite the minister to take over the podium, let me remind each and every one of you that his comments are on the record as is the discussion following his remarks. And so, Minister, we're honored and privileged to have you here at CSIS and we look forward to hearing what you can talk about. Thank you so much, Carla Hills, for that great introduction. My respect for former USTRs are very high. We know that dealing with trade issues are not only important, but they're quite complicated. And we have just come through a period of the great recession, but we have, as an important part of getting out of it, we have used the WTO that we built together as a security measure of not turning into protectionism that we did in the 30s. So, Excellencies, ladies and gentlemen, it's great for me to be here. I'm very honored. Also, thank you to my great friend, John, where are you? There, you're over there. Thank you for inviting me. Mapping the global energy landscape is vital for understanding the world we live in. In order to grasp modern geopolitics, we need to examine the ways we produce and consume energy. It is currently, it went in Europe that we cannot not mention. It was mentioned the situation in Ukraine. And I think those have reminded us about important values we share. Russia's actions and calculations belong to a century far removed from ours. We are also seeing that the sanctions that have been introduced has had a psychological effect. We have seen the depreciation of the ruble, the impact also on the stock market. These dramatic events have also reinforced existing concerns about energy security in Europe, which is something I will address in a moment. In a situation where global energy demand is expected to increase by 35% over the next 20 years, the interplay between energy, power and politics will continue to affect foreign policy making. Economic factors play a decisive role in shaping our world. This was effective when Adam Smith and Karl Marx could agree on. Energy supply and demand are extremely important in this context. A journey through the geopolitics of energy it takes us west, east and south, and not least up high north. The global map of economic and political power is shifting and the energy landscape is changing along with it. China is about to become the world's biggest importer of oil. India is forecast to be the biggest importer of coal by 2020. This development comes as no surprise. What is surprising, however, is the second feature of the new energy landscape. The American Revolution, this time an energy revolution. It is astonishing to see how US crude oil production has increased by 65% and gas production by 34% in just 10 years. After decades of dependency on the Middle East, who would have predicted that the US will soon be second only to Saudi Arabia in terms of oil production and second only to Russia in terms of gas production? I do look forward, John, to the launch of the CSIS study tomorrow. I'm sure your discussion will provide interesting insights into the geopolitical consequences of the unconventional oil and gas and prove valuable for US foreign policy decision makers. Even though the shale boom is bound to have geopolitical consequences, I still believe that the Middle East will remain a region of geopolitical significance. When the oil consumption and demand will increase by 35%, it will, of course, change where the demand is coming from when it comes to the Middle East. It will come, for example, then from China. Given the stakes involved, discussions on the geopolitics of energy easily end up focusing on the potential for conflict. Without ignoring such concerns, I would like to propose a somewhat different perspective. The Norwegian approach to energy security is quite simple. We are a reliable and predictable provider of energy and will remain so. We believe the role of politicians should be to provide the predictable regulatory framework necessary to allow companies to operate on a sound commercial basis. Making politics out of the energy markets will profit neither consumers nor consumers. Companies need predictable and functioning markets in order to finance the huge investments necessary for future energy production. Norway is the third largest exporter of gas globally. We are also in the major league when it comes to oil exports. We are currently number seven. And we also made sure when we became a major energy producer to secure the governmental rent to the people of Norway. So we have been running a tax system and maybe as a board member of Stadthalle, I wasn't always that thrilled. But 80% marginal taxes on oil and gas companies. We do have in Norway, but there is still a huge interest from a lot of companies to drill and be at the Norwegian continental shelf. And we made sure that the governmental rent and we know it belongs to the people of Norway. And we have built up our sovereign wealth fund. It's the largest sovereign wealth fund in the world close to 900 billion US dollars and own around 2% of all listed companies globally. We also have decided that is only the real interest of the sovereign wealth fund that can be allocated to our state budget. And we would like to see those contributions from the sovereign wealth fund invested in future orientated sectors like education, R&D and also infrastructure. Norway is also the second largest producer of hydro power on pair with India. And Norway is the second largest exporter of gas to Europe after Russia. More than 70% of Norwegian gas resources remain to be produced. We are maintaining a high level of exploration activities. We will continue to secure predictable deliveries as the best contribution we can make to energy security. In addition, we strongly emphasize energy saving and efficiency and are working to develop technological solutions for combating climate change. Exporters and importers depend on each other and we fully understand that consumers want to diversify their sources. When the First Lord of the Admiralty made the historic decision to convert British battleships from being cold-fired to oil-fired in 1911 he also stated that the Royal Navy could not rely on deliveries from one oil field or one country. Safety and certainty in oil lie in variety and variety alone, he said. This was not the only time Winston Churchill recognized a fundamental truth before most people. Some of us think this is also food for thoughts in the current situation in Europe. The European Union has started an ambitious project to find ways of improving the continent's energy security. There can be no quick fixes to the issue of energy security. It takes a long time to change energy systems and corresponding energy flows. We believe that gas should continue to be a key component in Europe's energy mix. Gas emits 50% less CO2 than coal when burned. Would you live in an increasingly globalized world? In most cases, win-win solutions trump zero-sum thinking. Since 1970, the value of world trade has increased eight times. We still live in a world of competition but national interests are better served by cooperation than confrontation. We enter into trade agreements and bind ourselves to common sets of rules because we benefit from doing so. Even in authoritarian states, there is a growing realization that old-fashioned zero-sum thinking runs contrary to national interests. The road to prosperity is true innovation and inviting other countries to engage in voluntary trade in order for trade to flourish, stable and friendly relations between neighbors are needed. Even if power is currently moving east and south, the world has not been turned upside down. We are entering a world where the US and China are more influential than others, but we are not heading for a repetition of the bipolar world of the Cold War. The US and China are too interdependent for such a comparison to be helpful. The world economy, as I mentioned, has survived the crisis in 2008 because leader resisted the temptation to resort to protectionism and nationalism. They stuck to the rules and kept trading. The prosperity of nations is best served by agreed rules, trade agreements and predictable investment climates. Energy markets are no exception. That is why the Norwegian government wants our oil and gas companies to operate within predictable legal frameworks and base their investments on commercial calculations. There are several examples of how energy production can be impeded by unstable conditions and due state interference, poor governments and conflict. The massive increase in energy demand, especially in East Asia, India and Middle East, will compel nations to find new ways of cooperating. China's energy requirements will affect its future foreign policy decisions. Beijing needs a stable international system to protect its energy imports. Some speculate that the current crisis in Europe may accelerate Russia's plan to build pipeline eastwards. Such projects will still take a long time to complete and will not necessarily lead to a fundamental reduction of Russia's interest in the European markets. As power is shifting towards the east and the south, as I mentioned, geopolitical eyes are also looking north. It is estimated that around 20% of the world's undiscovered global petroleum resources are to be found in the Arctic. The high north is characterized by low tension and we must ensure that it remains a region of peaceful cooperation and respect for international law with actors using a win-win perspective when formulating strategies. When they became observers in the Arctic Council, China, India, Japan, South Korea and Singapore agreed to the rules of the game in the high north, including the law of the sea and the rights of Arctic coastal states. You may have read press reports about race to the north or a scramble for resources. Many of you will know that this is misleading. As I mentioned, on the Norwegian continental shelf, international companies can compete for licenses on equal terms as they can in the North Sea. Of course, there is competition among companies and we have representatives, fine representatives of many of you here. That is the way the market economy works. The Arctic Council provides the political framework needed for dealing with challenges in the North. Establishing a set of agreed rules and following them promotes the prosperity of nations and it strengthens energy security. Changes to the global energy landscape will not change our basic approach. My government will continue to be a stable supplier of energy and to provide a predictable framework that offers companies incentives to increase their production. Thank you. An enormously clear and very valuable presentation and we appreciate it and thank you warmly. We particularly thank you even more for your generosity and time and willingness to answer a few questions. So we'll keep the minister who is, I think you must have some jet lag. He just got in yesterday, but we'll take a few questions. Over here at the Daisy table. Would you state your name so that the minister knows who is speaking? Well, thank you minister. I'm Nelmini Rubin. I'm with the House Foreign Affairs Committee here in Washington, D.C. and I think I actually may have met you at the World Economic Forum many years ago. I wanted to ask you, given your perspective and your spot in the world, what do you think the United States should do differently to better support European energy security? We'll take a few questions and then take them as a group. Is there another question from the floor? Oh, you're so shy. Why do you take it? Yes, please. Larissa Courtney. I wanted to ask the Prime Minister what Norway can do to help Ukraine in its current plight with Russia? These are either energy needs. Any others? All right, Mr. Yes. There's the mic. Oh, sorry. As we look at the developing situation with Russia, the Ukraine natural gas, do you feel that Norway can and should play a critical strategic role in supplying Europe with more natural gas and hydrocarbons so that they're not so dependent on Russia? Great. Thank you. Let me give a couple of remarks on Ukraine first. It is a very serious situation in Ukraine these days. There is a tough situation where it is interesting to see where Mr. Putin and Russia is heading. I hope that there will be no further military intervention either in the east or in the south. I think that will end in a very dramatic situation. We should not forget that the Ukrainian army is also 140,000 soldiers, and I think the development will not be the same if there is military intervention in the eastern part, will not play out the same way as it did in Crimea. I think that is an understatement. We are seeing that a lot of gas, Russian gas, is running through Ukraine. Ukraine is also a great consumer and buyer of Russian gas. If there was a situation developing where this gas was hindered in a way, of course Norway is ready to take it, it's part of the responsibility, but natural gas, as I mentioned earlier on, needs also the infrastructure to be exported. Norway is almost running close to the capacity when it comes to exporting natural gas to Europe with the current infrastructure. So maybe for a short term we could increase by 10%, but that's what the capacity is when it comes to pipes. In the future there is more natural gas available. As I said, still 70% of the known resources are still there to be utilized, and we will be predictable if there is interest for Norway stepping up in that respect. We, of course, will take that responsibility. But there are no short term, there are no quick fixes. I think this confirms that Europe needs to diversify and Europe needs to pay more attention to energy security. On the other side I know that Russia is also very much relying on the European gas market. 30% of the European gas comes from Russia, and it's a very important revenue for Russia. And where else can Russia then export this gas? As I mentioned, they can, of course, in the future build pipes for China, but it's costly, takes time, and in a situation where Russian economy is growing less than 1%, and used to grow 5%, and the psychological impact of the sanctions are no felt. I'm reluctant to believe that Russia is not interested to continue to be an energy exporter to Europe. And we know that a lot of the legitimacy of the current regime in Russia has and will come from the middle class that has developed. And also Mr. Putin has put a lot of effort into securing pensions and all this. So for a pensioner in Murmans that has seen the pensions developing okay the last 10 years, I think that depends also on economic growth in Russia to continue this in the future. And I think then the gas is an important part of it. On the US side, how can the US contribute? I think in the future there will be interesting to see how the US will deal with the LNG. And there will probably then be a discussion both on the Hill and in the administration if there will be an opening up for export of LNG. I think this is a discussion that will take place also in the US. I think that we are all very, very grateful for the Minister's time. He is a real expert, not only on energy but on global affairs. And we wish you well on the rest of your trip as you move on from here. I hope that you enjoy Houston. And as much as we've enjoyed having you here. So thank you so much. Thank you. Colleagues we're going to have a very full day tomorrow. We'll start at 9 o'clock. Coffee will be available at 9 o'clock maybe a little bit earlier. The program is going to start at 9.15. We're going to start with a little brief presentation that summarizes the results of our study. And then we will turn to Fatah Barol who is going to be with us. Fatah is the chief thinker at the International Energy Agency. We're delighted to have him here as a good friend. In the afternoon we'll have a round table session on the geopolitical implications on a geographical basis. And then we will have a dialogue. Oh Dan Poneman, Deputy Secretary of Energy will be with us. And then we will have a dialogue between John Hess and Zbig Brzezinski. So we'll hear what the two different perspectives on the same world. And it'll be a fascinating discussion. So please join us tomorrow at 9 o'clock. And thank you all for coming tonight. We'll see you tomorrow.