 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Power Trading Hour with your host, David White. Call now, toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. Now, David White. And welcome all to another excellent edition of the Power Trading Hour. And it doesn't matter if you're in Timbuktu or Kalamazoo, as long as you're here at the right time. You knew it had to break, and ran an update and forgot to go back and check. But every time you run an update, it changes your output on audio. So let's try that again. The following takes place between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. Much better. So as we move along here today, what do we have? A bit of a bounce if you're bullish, a little bit of disappointment that you couldn't hold and break through 45, 96. We're about 20 points below that, although we did try that earlier in the morning. Right back to pretty massive short selling. I was looking for a bounce, maybe even up to 46.50. Maybe we get something tomorrow. Maybe we don't. Maybe it's next week. But there are an absolute mass of people that are short. And I can understand it, literally everything from the headlines. In fact, I saw a list of the stuff that the Americans were the most anxious and worried about, and Russia came in fifth. But the other four, well, we're not talking about them. It kind of reminds me of the lead up to World War II, where everybody just tries to ignore all the problems, like they're going to go away. But they're not. But we've got a ton of money still sloshing around. The Fed's still buying bonds. I know that's going away. But all that cash is not going away in a day. But it's going to be a two-way trading market. As I said a couple of weeks ago, I suspect this year is going to be a great deal more about picking stocks and being in the right ones. And you're going to have some winners and some losers. But I think it's going to be a stock-picking market probably up until December, where we'll have a little bit of a Christmas rally. 877-927-6648. The first email comes in from Hector. He says, what about the naysayers out there? And you just play them a little bit. A little bit of negative waves. Don't you knock it off with them negative waves. Why don't you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don't you say something righteous and hopeful for a change? Always put the negative waves, Moriarty. Always put the negative waves. Yes, what a great movie. I haven't watched it. I seem to watch it about once a year. Well, maybe I'll have to put it on my list for this week. But certainly there's a lot of things to be negative about. But yeah, it didn't get to that level in a day, and it's not coming off those levels in a day. It's going to take a while. And there's going to be a lot of sector rotation as everybody starts looking for a faster horse and one that's probably a little less risky. When the Ukrainians, is that what they are? Ukrainians from Ukraine? I think they're Ukrainians. I can call them that. It's not demeaning. Anyway, the Ukrainians got thrown under the bus with a little bit of talk of, and maybe it's just a little bit of invasion and it's not so bad, kind of like a little bit of pregnant. Well, why that doesn't affect us right off the bat too much. The real reaction that I saw overnight was with the Taiwanese who think if they're going to toss the Ukrainians under the bus that we're going to toss them under too. So it's going to be a tough road. I saw some people talking about maybe a bounce in the semiconductors. I don't know. We probably are going to get one. I don't think we're going to get one the next day. Certainly it looks like the big plan to get, what we do call it, the big plan to get the bear raid through was there was a tremendous amount of bearish press from last night into this morning including downgrades and everything else. It looked to me like maybe a lot of the big guys on Wall Street at Goldman Sachs were probably short and they were more than willing to throw a little bit more fuel on the fire. I've seen more bad press on YouTube for a couple of semiconductors in the last day than I've seen in the last year and that includes when they were going after Intel. Maybe it's just the zeitgeist for you people in Lutz. That's a German word. It says kind of the spirit of the times. Probably the best one. And I don't get used, get to use zeitgeist enough and in my two years of German in high school probably wasted but I can't pronounce that word. But as we look at it, certainly if I was in Taiwan right now or at least if I was in their mindset that they're starting to look for places to move before the invasion. And who knows, maybe it comes out, maybe it doesn't. But if you ever watched Herman Wook's The Winds of War, read the book, just goes through all the lead up into all of that but a great book especially historically to get the mood of the times when everybody knows that you have evil and a lot of people not doing anything about it or gonna do anything about it. And as an individual, you can't really do much about it other than vote. But that's kind of it. We've got a market that I think is starting to get extremely nervous in the semis. They're nervous about the interest rates here at home. We've got a small respite that made it look like maybe it's a little harder for the Fed to raise rates with the jobs numbers this morning. But I don't think it stops them. I think they're pretty much committed. And everybody's saying four. I'm saying three. I think they'll do a little. We'll get a little bit. We've tried this before. And last August and September and it took all of about two weeks for the Fed to melt like ice cream on Georgia asphalt in the middle of July. I think they're probably a little bit more committed to it. They're gonna worry about what they see in the price of gold. They're gonna see all that money coming out of things like Bitcoin. And they're gonna know that there's gonna probably be some implications. Anyway, a lot of stuff to digest. If I was on TV, I'd be a jerk and say, what a pack. But I'm not. By understanding these trading ranges, David White is able to find a path of lease resistance. David White's trading newsletter, The Path of Lease Resistance, is delivered daily before the markets open to make every trading day an easy win. Visit TFNN.com today and subscribe to David White's Ultimate Trading Newsletter for $119 a month and try all of our newsletters risk-free with our 30-day money-back guarantee. Take the path of lease resistance at TFNN Educating Investors. 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Apple errors are infamous Limbing's commercial during Super Bowl, X, Y, X, I, X. Oh, did you ever wonder why I'm going to digress again here because I've got to win the award once again this year. Did you ever wonder why all of the movies had the copyright dates in Roman numerals? We'll get to that in a minute. Anyway, Apple errors their infamous Limbing's commercial during Super Bowl, X, I, X to launch their ill-fated Macintosh office software. The ad was widely considered a failure because the commercial seemed and was rather insulting to its intended audience. So what else do you have in that? Well, it's just one of those things. Apple has had some big hits and some giant misses. Not quite as bad as this is not your father's, your grandfather's Ozmobile, but damn close. A lot of people say that this lead and this single ad was one of the biggest factors in businesses saying they wanted nothing to do with the Mac in its office. Of course, at this time was just really getting fired up with desktop publishing. They had desktop publishing software and it was kind of in its infancy but you knew it was going to be a big thing until the internet really came out another 10 years or 15 years and really desktop publishing still a good business but probably not what it was before. But the advertising agency was struggling. They wanted something to come up with Super Bowl that was as good as the one that they had the year before which is the infamous 1984 ad that intimated hence of George Orwell's 1984 widely applauded they wanted to come back really kind of the start of big Super Bowl ads after a couple of years but this one a misfire and for a lot of places they could say that they shot themselves in the foot. 877-927-6648 877-927-6648 877-927-6648 877-927-6648 877-927-6648 877-927-6648 877-927-6648 877-927-6648 877-927-6648 877-927-6648 877-927-6648 For the first question is from David My Name's Seik and he wants to know about team I'll take a quick look at It Do Do Do Do Do Do Do Do Do You Came In Here You did exactly what I say to do which is by half way of the open gap You did exactly that. that. He came down here 2.2 million shares, filling a gap of 6.1 million shares. So not quite a third, maybe a little bit more, maybe five sixteenths. Is that more than a third? Six sixteenths. I haven't done any fractions today. I'll have to warm up. But certainly 6.1, 6.2 compared to 2.2, pretty dramatically a drop in this stock. You had kind of a decent move down here on energy, but this is going to be very tough to break, especially when you get through the next week or so. I'm continuing to think we have some consolidation to do before we really start dropping. We're going into the Olympics. I think the news starting next week is going to get significantly better on the pandemic front. I think a lot of people are going to be talking about the beginning of the end as we go into springtime. But yeah, that is just my thoughts at the moment. But yeah, I think that the market really starts heading down after we get done with the Olympics. And I think stuff starts getting real. No, a lot of people are thinking the Ruskies decide to come in and invade during the Olympics. They're going to have a lot of people down in China. I don't think they're going to do that. I think they're going to wait until somebody's looking somewhere else other than close enough to their backyard. But I could be wrong. With the green light being given to invade at least a little bit, become a little bit pregnant, I think it's problematic. 877-927-6648. Anyway, this is exactly where I would want to have bought it. I wouldn't have bought it because of the energy from that December 28th low down to the January 18th low. But it's going to be tough with that kind of disparity in volume. It may take weeks just to get wound up to go break that low if you're still thinking it is bearish. Yeah, I guess that is true. When Jim and the Den says they came in and crying here, right after the Sochi Olympics. Okay, what else do we have? Yes, I did see that. Hector sends in a link. It's been on YouTube here and Don Rickles is roasting Clint Eastwood during the production of that movie. I think it was the first week that they were shooting. I saw that just a couple of days ago, but yeah, that came out. It's been pretty big on YouTube. But Don Rickles, he was a hoot. But so was Mad Dog. That's my other dog impression. 877-927-6648 emails. Okay, and see what else we have. Okay, first of all, MSFT with Microsoft. And you got about half volume today. Like I said, I'm not expecting a whole lot. We weren't able to break through the 4596. If anything happens, my guess is we're going to probably go right up there and close at that 5496. And they're going to sit on it. There's a lot of calls that are bought above. And I think they're going to, at least in the futures, you're going to try to make people go into the weekend holding them. And I don't think a lot of people will. But at this point, the idea is to keep the market down and get out of your short positions, at least for the first big wave down off the top. Support is really fairly good at about 5400, if we do get down there, 5400. Down to 4500, he said. So is there that much left? Pretty much the gravy is gone. There's some scraps left if you do think that this is lower. But I would say that just almost the Great Wall of China resides at 4500, he said, almost. Do we get wrong again? Yep, you're acting up. Having fun trading the markets, but having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with? Become an Apex creditor in the trading market and join the Tiger's Den Trading Room only at tfnn.com. The Tiger's Den is an exclusive trading room where successful traders from around the world come to exchange trades and ideas. Join the den and surround yourself with the sharpest minds in the trading world. Subscribers to the Tiger's Den are also the first to have their questions answered live on air and can privately chat with our tfnn hosts live during their shows. Interact with other tigers and tigers as they share trading ideas, news analysis, and discuss the market action all trading day. 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We are so confident that you're gonna love this new charting software that will even give you a 30-day unconditional money-back guarantee. Don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software. Get your copy of the Art of Timing the Trade charts today by visiting tfnn.com. We're talking about Amazon, and all I can tell you is I got a bunch of emails from Amazon trying to sell me some screwdrivers. They know I'm like Tim the Toolman, Taylor, and love tools, but don't need any screwdrivers. Although these are highly insulated ones for electricity work. I don't do a lot of mains electricity work. I leave that to people that I call sparky, but I do digress. And we talked about why. I know one's brought it up in the den, thought maybe someone would, why all the movies have the copyright dates in Roman numerals. There was a thought years ago that if a movie had been out for several years, that people would think it's an old movie, so I'm not gonna watch it. Especially when it came to reruns on TV. But a major fallacy in that thought, although that's why they did it, was that pretty much the copyrights came at the end of the movie. So you wouldn't know until you watched the thing that it was a couple years old. But the practice persists. Okay, anyway, we're looking at Microsoft, get a little bit of a bounce, got no volume today. Not surprising, but a lot of people still trying to handicap Microsoft's 4a into maybe becoming a gaming monopoly. Microsoft certainly wouldn't be the largest. They would be the second, I guess, if they get this deal through with Activision Blizzard. A good deal for them. Of course, the FTC chairman was out this week, Khan. And this is not somebody that just spent a little bit of time thinking about antitrust. This is a lady in her 40s who spent 20 years working on antitrust. So I wouldn't say it's a done deal. It doesn't make them a monopoly quite. And they will be the second biggest gaming manufacturer. But I'm sure we're gonna have squeals from the Sony PlayStation folks, because it probably will be the death of that if it goes through. Uh, they have to expand to the metaverse. You know, I've had a lot of questions about that. I was going to get to it. The metaverse doesn't exist. And I'm going to put something in the tech insider tomorrow, a link to a guy that was a tech leader at Google and Facebook. And he goes through it in detail. But some of the comments in there led me to start checking it out. And that is that everything that those folks say that will be the truth is a long way away from happening. Everybody says it's 10 years. I don't know how you develop for 10 years for something that you don't know what it's going to be in 10 years. Most people that know Zuckerberg that I've read here over the last week think that the whole rebranding in the metaverse thing is so he can sell his shares. They think that like me that he's looking for a way out of spending time in front of a congressional testimony and in front of the Federal Trade Commission and the Justice Department over the coming years. But that's it. It's going to be interesting. But what can you say? Anyway, oh, I was going to say what the tech guy said. And he does it a little better than me. But it certainly is a the headsets are a factor of 10 in resolution away from not making people throw up all the time. You'll need a screen that's about 40,000 pixels wide for the goggle headsets. And to get that, like I said, we're about we're about in a good day, 4,000 and you need 40,000. They've done a lot of tests. And I guess this guy was in part of them about what made people sick and nauseous by having those things on. My own experience is I'm not really highly susceptible to it. But I know a lot of people that are. I read in the road in the backseat of a airplane before I got my license with somebody trying to get their instrument lices. They put a hood on you. And this person got sick. They keep a lot of barf bags while you're learning to fly on instruments. But certainly it's that same kind of thing. You get a lot of stuff moving your heads, not matching what's moving in front of you. And the better it gets, the worse that part of it is with your inner ear. And anyway, he went through a litany of these things, but we're probably at least 10 years away from the technology being accessible. And even then it's probably going to still be $3,500, probably an inflated bucks, probably 10 grand by then. So I don't think that there's a whole lot there. A lot of the people in Silicon Valley don't think that there's a lot there. And people really still don't even know what it is. But selling the sizzle is part of Wall Street. And George Soros said one of the best sayings ever. And that is all of economic history is one lie and deceit after another. Your job is a speculator to get on when that lie is being propagated and get off before it's discovered. So it is interesting. 877-927-6648. Let's take a look at, as long as we're talking about Amazon, let's take a look at it. You did come down to this gap. My guess is, though, I don't know when earnings is on Amazon. I will check that right now. I'm sure that the trade that this gentleman isn't on the den is short term. Okay. So what am I looking here? I'm looking for earnings. Hang on a second. There it is. Earnings whispers AMZ in February 1st. Well, you know, that's not too bad. If it would have been a little bit farther out, I would have said that that was problematic. But here's the thought on the inside. Yes, can you get a short term bounce on Amazon? Certainly, especially since the market kind of bottom. The insiders on Wall Street are all repeating the same thing. And the new CEO, like I said for a long time, has been throwing everything into the kitchen sink to get the books fixed after Bezos left almost every time. I'm trying to remember this guy. He's a famous accountant, but he says any kind of Wall Street books come in one of two flavors, either gently roasted or completely baked. I think Amazon probably a little closer to the truth, but still there's a little in there. And when you get a new CEO like they have, he's cleaned in the decks for a long term. He's probably going to get some options down there at the lows. But my guess is that if he doesn't, if he's spending a lot, we probably see 3000 for earnings. We'll be back in a minute. The technology around us is changing every day. With so much happening, it can seem impossible to keep up with all the information. 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As we return, the question again from Steve was about why Microsoft bought Activision Blizzard or is it going to try to buy them? I think that they'll succeed eventually. But I think it's all about a good deal. One, they had a battled CEO that had started the company and bought it for what, $400 million? $400,000? It was incredibly cheap back then. It was a bankrupt buyout. Maybe it was $400,000. And it, of course, turned it into something as worth $68 billion. So he's in battle. They're all trying to push him out. Again, this is a whole I'm going to say it's fairly close to the Intel thing where there's an internal coup trying to toss the guy out. It's unclear whether any of this stuff is true or not. As far as the allegations, everybody makes them. Kind of interesting that the year before UFO, the UFO thing in Rockwell, New Mexico, there were zero UFO reports in 1945 and zero reports up to that. Two months after it, and then a year, and then subsequent years, they went up by about 1,000%. And maybe the UFOs showed up in 1946, but probably not. Probably people see it. They start repeating stuff. And there are a lot of people that don't like people that make a lot of money. So it seems rather dubious, but certainly when everybody, when the gang gets against you now, they're in very far for you to go. And this gave him an easy way out and cash out at the top. And so Microsoft got a deal that's probably fairly good. It'll take them about two years to make it worth the $68 billion they're paying for it. They have the cash, so they didn't have to borrow it. So there's a lot of good stuff, but no, I don't think it has anything to do with the metaverse. I think everybody is just, I was going to say something rather rude, but it harkens, the metaverse harkens back to everybody telling people that they're counting eyeballs in 2019, 1999 for internet. It doesn't matter how much money you make it. All it cares is how many eyeballs you get. And we all found out how that ended up. So no, I'm not a big fan of thinking that the metaverse is much more of anything than a big excuse for the Zuckster to finish paying for the rest of the island he's buying, which according to him is going underwater. But he's buying it anyway. What does that make you think about his belief in rising tides? Somebody is not making sense. They call it cognitive dissonance, holding two contrary things in your head at once, but I don't know why he would do that. Supposed to be the smartest man in the world, right? Hmm. I do digress. 877-927-6648. USO. Apparently she is in with the folks out here. As I said before, she asked about a few before this. You're just going into this big gap from the way down. Let me clean this up a little bit here, so you can go back and get rid of that, get rid of that, get rid of that. Okay, that's a much better chart. Hopefully you're looking at this chart on YouTube or in the den, Mimi. This gap down that we're coming into is the big one. Sanford and Sun would be very proud of the big one here. 19,000, excuse me, 19,300,000 shares. This goes back to March 9th, 2020. You're coming up on that, so let's call it 20 million shares. You're coming into that gap now with 3 million shares. Yesterday you had 5 million shares, 6 million shares the day before, 6 million shares. You're going to run that gas probably fairly quick. Now, it depends on how much you want to set on your hands and weight. I think it's eventually going to go higher. You're probably running into resistance though and that resistance. At best, you'd be looking at 65 with this volume I would have sold today. Now, maybe you get one more day out of this going into a weekend. It's not uncommon to see at least half those gaps on lighter volume, but if you've been long this thing for a while, it's starting to look to me if you're trading it, it's a little bit more of a gamble than prudent speculation. My guess is that you could find yourself fairly close to the top for a while. It'll need to consolidate, get enough energy to blow through 70. I'm going to say that it's probably a little bit like gold and that gold's taken a little while to go sideways even in the 1800 area. I think you can get kind of the same thing. For gold itself, I heard that Larry, who's pretty active gold trader, was looking at this and going short today. When it popped, I think gold went to 1848, I think in the den when he was talking about it. That's it, but same thing with gold. You got a gap down on 13 million shares. You got into it with 15 million shares, which was real good yesterday, but you're into it with down on seven. It's probably going to consolidate here for a while before it goes takes out at least in the GLD, the 174 out here. We had a nice move. You normally want three days after that to sell. I had calls, so I took the money quickly because I didn't think it was going to be a great deal more. We were looking for a bounce in the market yesterday came today. It's underwhelming. I can say that we're up 15 points on the S&P cash now. Just keep an eye on it. What else do we have here? Probably pretty close to hitting pretty stiff resistance. Is this a suckers rally? I don't think that. I think that we probably just have a lot more people shorting everything that moves. At one point, you're going to have a market too short to go lower. It may happen tomorrow, but we have the highest short sell numbers from the FINRA data going back to the election in 2016. If any good news comes out and all the bad stuff that we are worrying about today doesn't happen, just remember that. You've got the biggest short positions right now going back to 2016, the week before the election. We all know what happened when the news changed to what people believed it was. Even if it's short term, the Fed hadn't quit throwing money at the market, I think a lot of people would use it as an excuse to sell, but you're still going to have to move back. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFNN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis, and it's not just dry, tedious text either. TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV, live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern. For free, each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. 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They did get involved early in the week after the gap down, but my guess is they're just trying to slow the roll. You're back up to 142. My target's still 139 on the TLT. Maybe we get that next week depends, but they're trying to... I mean, the one job before the last 10 years of throwing money at the market was always to slow the market going down and pay lip service to going after the market on the way up. No one wanted to be the party pooper during a euphoric episode in the market, so they didn't ever and haven't ever really done much on the way up. It's all about trying to do stuff on the way back down other than the last 10 years or 12 years. So a little bit different, but at this point, I think if they have one job, it is to make sure that inflation comes down. I think they're probably going to do it mostly because if interest rates go up significantly, I mean, we could certainly lose a few wheels off the cart in the USA with all the debt we've piled on. At some point, it becomes unserviceable for that. And wait, you can see. Anyway, going to expiration tomorrow, expecting unexpected. Got a little bit of earnings in the morning, but not much. Going to get more into that next week. So when you can, not when you have to, we'll see you here tomorrow. Thank that channel. Thank that.