 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread that is right here on the fan dual podcast network in number fire Dot-com we're taking a look ahead to get set for week number four from an NFL betting perspective with whale capper My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire.com joined here as always by Ed Fang of the power Inc.com you can find Ed on Twitter at the power Inc. Ed last week We saw Danny Dines making his debut for the Giants and I don't know if it's gonna last but it was fun to watch I'll say yeah. Well, you know what he looked the part, right? He's a big dude You know his pat, you know, he he did a good job throwing the ball down the field And I was really impressed by the athleticism. Yeah, he looked like a guy that can actually Run past some NFL defenders, which you you don't see out of guys who even got things done in college football So but I do think this game needs a lot of context, right? So first of all New York Giants won the game We have to keep in mind that Tampa Bay missed two extra points and a 34 yard field goal at the end Which could have been a 27 yard field goal if they had wanted to be a 27 yard field But they took a delay of game and had James Winston center the ball and lose two yards But Bruce Arians thinks his kicker is better from deep. So why not, right? You know the same kicker that missed the extra point first touchdown of the game so So there's that You know Daniel Jones also fumble twice, which obviously is not, you know, maybe expect it a little bit for a guy in his first game Tampa Bay dropped an interception and Then you know his yards per pass attempt looked pretty good, but there was one touchdown to Ingram where the guy Just completely whiffed on a tackle there as well And then you know and and when I looked at it, you know, he had a pretty good completion percentage But their success rate on passing was only 39 percent. The NFL average is about 44. So Again, I don't really expect this to continue. I think it's a nice story. It's great that they won the game But I would be I would be very cautious in Backing the Giants because of this one game heading forward Well, it was also the the Buccaneers and we know that that's not the best defense Devin White the rookie linebacker did not play in that game They were down by 18 points at halftime and now knows a quaint Barkley and say quaint You know, we can talk about running backs not mattering I think it's a different discussion when it's a running back who is so heavily involved in the passing game Which is the case for sake on Barkley. So a lot of things to keep in mind there. Well, I mean In general running the ball doesn't matter as much But if you can do it at a high rate of success and and the Giants were doing that for the first two games And you know, we can also talk about I want to talk There, you know, there's some interesting data coming out about just tendencies of teams and running the ball And you know a team like Indianapolis has been running the ball a lot But they're doing it efficiently and that's probably the only thing they're gonna be able to do really so Yeah, I mean, I think Barkley, I mean the Barkley injury I think Matters a little bit, right? So some something to keep an eye on. There's been really interesting line movement in their game against Washington for this week This is not on our rundown for this week. So you don't need to give a thought on it I just thought it was very interesting But 80% of the money and 80% of the bets are on the Giants at Fandral Sportsbook that is accorded odds fire Com but the line has moved from the Giants minus three to the Giants minus two and a half. So Interesting line movement, I will say Yeah, that's there's a little term for that reverse line movement, right? Exactly. And so With Daniel Jones, too, is that he did take five sacks in that game and Eli Manning took two in his first two games again Not saying it's not an upgrade. It's definitely an upgrade for the team But as we talked to Dr. Eric Eager about yesterday Quarterbacks do play a role in their sack rates. Speaking of Dr. Eric Eager We had him on yesterday to preview week five of college football We got his thoughts on Ohio State versus Nebraska Notre Dame versus Virginia and Clemson versus UNC also talked about his research into the roles that quarterbacks play in their sack rates and I didn't see Daniel Jones necessarily Lolli Gagan in the pocket. I don't have the best way to put it I'm gonna put it that way anyway, but like After talking to him it is something that I flagged in my mind is something to monitor that maybe Danny Dimes Maybe a little bit more hesitant in the pocket. Yeah I mean, we've also seen Baker may feel to be a little hesitant in the pocket, too, right? And right it's it's I think it's a process that quarterbacks go through and Yeah, I mean it's really interesting to me because you can look hesitant or you can kind of look like pros like Matt Ryan and and and Tom Brady and just watch them make subtle moves that give them an extra split second get the pass off. It's so Yeah, I mean this whole pocket presence thing I think it's very very underrated and something I'm trying to evaluate a lot more and it's forcing me to change the way I look at quarterbacks from an evaluation perspective, too Because I think that's something I've always undervalued Is avoiding sacks and like there are guys like Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson who can take sacks and still be fine But not everyone has the talent of Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson So it'll be something that I'll be emphasizing more in my own process going forward coming up in a bit We're gonna talk to whale capper again find him on Twitter at whale underscore capper He's hosted the deep dive podcast which you can find pretty much wherever you get podcasts And we're gonna talk with whale about week four of the NFL And if you want to listen to our chat with dr. Eric Eager search for covering the spread on Apple podcasts Spotify stitcher I heart radio wherever you get your podcasts you can find covering the spread and while you're there Please leave a rating and review as well before we bring on whale though Let's go back and take a look at what we had last week on the NFL show Covering the past All right before we take a look at what happened last week on the NFL show We do have one other future bet to go through from August. I think that was when we were talking about the twins I wanted the twins to win the AL central. They were minus 2 10 at the time So pretty decent juice and keep that in mind when we're evaluating this But they did wind up clinching last night. They are five games ahead of Cleveland right now The division wound up being closer than I thought it would be I think it was a half game or a game and a half at the time But five games I kind of thought it might be more But that was partly because Byron buckson got hurt again right after we talked of course because my guy can't stay healthy But regardless the numbers were favorable based on number fires powering it at the time So twins minus 2 10 to win the division that one did cash last week on the NFL side We had Brett Coulson on to talk week three the NFL and Brett talked about the Colts minus one They did cover their impressive game against Atlanta a weird pick by Matt Ryan that kind of helped that one too The other one that Brett had a lot of conviction about was the Panthers plus two and a half with the Cam Newton injury He thought that it was outrageous that the line had moved so far and the Panthers won that game pretty easily So kudos to Brett they're going two for two I had the over on that game for the Cardinals and the Panthers and covering the future and that game went over as well So Overs have been good so far this year. I would say which is encouraging So not not overs as in like always bet the over but they've been a favorable market for me So far this year and anything you wanted to add about last week's show Yeah, I mean, I really liked Atlanta plus two and a half the other side of that that Colts game it moved to You know Atlanta plus one, so definitely got the line movement right there Yep, the underlying metrics you talked about Matt Ryan's pick that kind of affected that game The land also had better total yards in that game yards for pass attempt as well So got the closing line value got the underlying metrics, right didn't get a win Right So well in Keanu Neal got her to like and there was that so like there was a lot of weird stuff in that game. Yeah, honestly I Think the Colts might be in trouble of T. Y. Hilton this is time So we'll have to keep an eye on that we don't have firm answers on his outlook as of right now So we're not going to talk about them for week four, but Keep an eye on that because I think that could be a pretty big blow to that team We will get into Whalecapper in just one second But first if you want to get in on the action check out the Fandall sportsbook and place your first bet today If you lose Fandall will give you a refund up to five hundred dollars in psych credit There's a sportsbook dot Fandall com for more details terms and conditions apply must be 21 plus and physically present in New Jersey or Pennsylvania call or gambling problem call 1-800 Gamber let's bring on Whalecapper right now to preview week four of the NFL season again Follow him on Twitter at Whale underscore capper and check out his podcast the deep dive podcast Let's take a deep dive into week four of the NFL Covering the present Let's bring on Whalecapper friend of the show back in Whale to talk about week four of the NFL How has NFL been going for you so far? Oh? So great to talk to you guys Doing a good job of beating the market, which is kind of my my ground-truthing for how my process is going Starting to see some results here week three was a great week Yeah, and pretty excited about the the looks I have here for week four The season's shaping up shaping up. Well, you know a lot of the teams that we thought before the season We're a little over undervalued has really come to fruition You know pretty clearly and so we got we got some nice We got some nice looks here as we are four weeks into this young season Yeah, and we do have a lot of data now, you know three weeks is not a ton But in the NFL season like we don't get a lot of data to begin with so three weeks is a decent amount Now that we're entering week four looking at you know your models and stuff like that How much are you relying on your preseason read-on teams versus what we've seen in those first three weeks? So there can be some noise for sure still, but what's the balance there for you? So I'm still for at least for team ratings I am still heavily relying on preseason data I'm about 75 25 and a lot of that is because we've seen some really in imbalanced schedules across the league so far this year, you know Some teams are playing you have just played the bottoms and we have really no idea how they'll match up against true True, you know true strong teams and other teams on the other hand have gone You know have been in schedule hell to this point So there's still there's still kind of a lot of noise in the data in terms of you know Being able to adjust for strength of opponent in a way that's you know meaningful and useful Where I do see some pretty good signal and where I am implementing some changes is primarily through coaching tendencies We've gotten we didn't really know what to expect with certain coordinators with certain coaches as we came into this new season And now that we've you know We've got three weeks of data on them. There are some pretty clear trends emerging Who is using kind of the advanced? Analytics to go about their play sequencing and play calling is pretty clear And there's a pretty wide disparity between the haves and have nots in that department And that's been that's been pretty useful for determining You know which offenses you really want to be involved in in terms of backing from a handicapping standpoint Well, I feel like that really to helps with totals And like from you know, we're talking about you know play calling tendencies and stuff like that Have you had a lot of success with totals based on that information from early in the year? absolutely absolutely and And and in both finding value on totals and staying away from plays that looked like value otherwise You know a couple a couple of good examples this week where you know the the situation the injuries kind of played to Some overspots, but I've I've stayed away from just based on the fact that we're not seeing you know very Very strong play calling from one or both teams. So yeah Can you give us an example of maybe one team that the play calling has been something that you're looking at to bet? Yeah, so the not all of them just one I Guess let's talk about one to bet you know to not to state steer steer clear of the Tennessee Titans are calling a very very conservative offense and It's not working and they you know, they they they had a stretch in that Jacksonville game That was just mind-blowing to two drives where they ate six and seven minutes off the clock You know 10 plus plays they only went 30 40 yards They ended up having to punt and you know they in one case They were down three scores and if you look at an offense like that and you see you know You see a signal where okay, these these guys do not recognize the The leverage that they are in at this point in the game and they are still operating under the semblance of we need to run on first down We need to you know try to establish the run like that is a huge red flag You do not want to be betting those teams in second half You do not want to be taking live positions on those teams And you don't really want to be counting on them to hit team total overs And so Titans kind of coming into this week where they're in a beautiful spot They're going up against the Falcons team that just lost some really important pieces on defense And you guys will remember anyone that bet the NFL last year will remember when the Falcons lost Keanu Neal When the Falcons didn't have great grade a Jared available their defense was a Disaster everyone was scoring on them at will all you had to do was be a Tiny bit aggressive and you were you know putting up 25 to 35 points without blinking And so all of the you know all the pieces are there for the Tennessee Titans this week But I have absolutely no confidence that Arthur Smith that Marcus Mariota that they make you know for the kind of Offense that you can expect will be able to exploit that and so this was an easy one to kind of stay away from and I think if you want to kind of flip the narrative and talk about a positive side of things and You know, this is this doesn't exactly play into how I'm approaching handicapping this game this year But by far and away the winners in sort of the coaching hires across the league This offseason were the Dallas Cowboys Kellan Moore's offensive coordinating in Dallas has been superlative He is he has effective running back tools yet. He is never running into stacked boxes He has you know, he has mastered kind of you know using his receiving weapons in a way that they are passing early and often on on early downs and on long Long distance or especially second downs and it's it's great to see because Coaching really held back the Cowboys last year and kind of coming into this season I was like well, I'm not gonna buy into this team until I see that, you know, Jason Garrett has learned something Well, it turns out they've taken you know a lot of the responsibility off his plate by bringing in Kellan Moore and while They don't have Gallop this week And that's a little bit troublesome because they only only have one guy that can get open if it's Gallop's not out there could kind of all relies on Cooper Which makes I think a little bit of a tough tough spot for them against the Saints in the Superdome But over the course of this season, you know, that that's gonna be mean a lot for this team going forward Absolutely, and that's good back to the Titans. We're talking about them there was a play against Jacksonville where they ran on second and 19 and I wanted to turn the game off so badly because I was like there's no point like why why am I wasting my time? I have Marcus Mariota and a lot of dynasty teams. I'm like, there's no point Down three scores. Yeah, there's no no urgency whatsoever like you like and and yes And you know that they they ran they ran a sequence where they ate seven minutes o'clock in that second half 22 Yeah, yeah, and it and watching it play out. You're like you're doing the Jags work for them Right, right like like this is a brilliant perfect drive if you're winning by three scores If you're losing by three scores, you are literally salting away the game for your opponent And the fact that no one recognized that the fact that they couldn't play with any urgency and really the fact that they didn't own it after the game also I thought was a problem and You're seeing a lot of the same things out of the Seattle Seahawks. You're seeing a lot of the same things Out of I won't say the Minnesota Vikings really fit this narrative The Vikings have put a ton of emphasis on running the football, but they're doing it effectively and efficiently So I'll give them a little bit of attitude, I guess But but there are definitely certain teams in this league who are Plus EV passing the football and yet they can consistently Give away downs early in in sequences early on drives and import and leverage high leverage situations And it's very frustrating to watch And especially, you know, if you don't you know if you don't realize it until you put a bet on that team And watch it play out in real time, you know, you don't pick up those sort of things Right. Absolutely. So you were talking a little bit about adjusting for opponents and how we haven't seen teams play A wide range of opponents yet Like there are some teams who have only had really tough or really easy spots Like the Cowboys you were talking about them like they've had an amazing game plan But it hasn't mattered because they've been just blowing people out So they haven't had to like we haven't had to see them against a neutral opponent yet So how much are you able to adjust for opponent with three weeks in the book or are you able to at all? Yeah, I think so one of the one of the plays I have on the board this week is uh, and I guess jump I won't go super far out of order here But I I I wonder specifically who in the world out there is backing the Buffalo Bills at home against the Patriots because We have not seen Josh Allen really take a step forward in terms of his passing efficiency at all Right. The offense is doing some things that are kind of innovative and kind of good They've they've done a nice job of kind of bringing their offensive line together and bringing that unit up They made some investments in the wide receiving core. They're playing well, but they face three exceptionally poor past defenses And this is an enormous step up in terms of competition from the likes of the Bengals and the giants to now play the Patriots Who look like an absolute, you know all universe past defense So the fact that people are running into the window and keeping you know pushing that number down is Really really surprising. I don't know which you know, which pros are out there doing this I don't know which models are supporting this but they are putting a lot of A lot of eggs in a basket with Josh Allen who we have not seen do anything of note against any legitimate past defense in his career to this point And even this year he has not looked that great against pretty weak opposition. So That one is a head scratcher Absolutely. Yeah, sounds good. Um, so let's talk about a couple games. Uh, we got chiefs at lions All right now it's chiefs minus six Lines are undefeated as I tweeted out after that game. Um They got uh, you know kind of an if you win on the road some turnovers There as well. Uh, what are you? What are you thinking about this game? So the uh, this is a very clear example in my mind of the haves and the have nots In terms of coaching approach and and efficiency in in offensive scheming Um, the lions have matt stafford who can chuck it They have healthy wide receivers who can create separation in galladay and marvin jones. They should be Um, an aggressive past past early on downs kind of team And when they have a lead, they should be able to Put pressure on the other team and play keep away. Uh, instead they've now two in two of even though they're undefeated The pie the tie was inexcusable. They absolutely should have gotten that way. They were up 24 six in that game And what do they do? They go into a very very conservative run first approach We're going to wipe out the clock the problem is they don't have the offensive line They can really generate any pressure in the running game and they don't have the horses that can You know that can find the lanes that can you know get yards after contact in the in the rushing game And so they are they you know, they squandered their opportunities in that game to put that one away Let's give the cardinals a chance to come back and lo and behold, they got a tie They probably should have lost that game Uh, and then uh, you know, if it wasn't for clif clif kingsbury punting it in overtime Like effectively, you know waving the white flag in that one. That was weird But all that said the the lions and they repeated history against the eagles and honestly without a You know kickoff return for a touchdown. Um without a little bit of sloppy play from the eagles I'm not sure the lions get that win. I think they were the right side of plus seven But the fact that they ended up with a win in that game. I thought was pretty lucky A box score would have said that they should have lost to the chargers too So even though they're 2 0 and 1 That's a team that very very easily could have been 0 and 3 and a lot of it based on their decision making And how they're approaching end of game situations trying to run the ball trying to play keepway The chiefs on the other hand are running some of the most spectacular offense you've ever seen in your life The passing efficiency is incredible. The sequencing is amazing And you know pat mahomes is you know on a you know on a on a turf on a fast field on a you know Indoor conditions for the first time in his career Really has a chance here to do something spectacular. I think this sets up for chiefs run away They should be able to pick their score on this one and you know the lions You know people they may be able to you know, assuming they're down several touchdowns looking up You know in the second half They may be forced to get aggressive and try to try to make something out of their passing attack But in my opinion, it's going to be too little too late. I have this as a double digit one for the chiefs And so I back them at minus six and a half. Yeah, and uh talking about the those lion schemes too It's not just that they should have lost based on the box score But also the chargers didn't have the left tackle. They did not have hunter henry That was the first game without him Mike williams played but was pretty hobbled and then against the eagles Everyone was out. They didn't have the receivers didn't have dallas goddard Their left tackle jason peters was sick and then still had to play because Their their backup andre dillard got hurt during the game So they've had so much luck from a health perspective too And I think that like They haven't taken advantage of that despite that too 100 agreed Even in that yeah, the eagles game was a great example too. The the injury disparity was humongous And yet they still eke out a win there And uh, you know that the only thing I can really point out about the chiefs That's a little sketchy is this is not a great situational spot for them This will be the third road game out of four weeks of the season to this point Some wear and tear from travel and some you know some fatigue that may you know be part of the You know the unit as a whole having just played a really physical really tough really meaningful game against the the ravens You know may manifest and you may see them perform a little bit under their expectation But an average performance here from the chiefs against the alliance team without derrius sleigh to me is 35 points is is sort of their floor here and uh, you know that the chief's offense is as good as advertised and You know cannot wait to see what they do as we kind of go through the rest of the season because uh, You know they they are spectacular. All right, so we're going to the chiefs minus six and a half here Let's move on to the patriots at the bill as a game You were just looting to and right now at vandal sports book the line is patriots minus seven and a half The total in this one is 42 and a half and both these teams have played lights out defense so far And it's a divisional game decently large spread knowing that both these teams have good defenses Are you buying into the bill's defense and the patriots defense first of all? It has that influence the way you view the spread in this game with the patriots minus seven and a half Yeah, I think there's some line value on the patriots if you can get it at a touchdown for a reasonable price But the much more favorable way from my opinion to attack this game is on the under I backed the under at 43 and a half Earlier in the week. I think it's still beddable at 42 and a half I think a fair line in this game from a total standpoint is around 40 My my numerical model came up with 24 17. So I guess 41 But I think there's a very reasonable and you know highly likely outcome here where the bills don't get You know much more than 13 points in this game And you know there's been a lot made about the the patriots defense and the fact that they've gone all these weeks without giving up the Touchdown and you know, maybe they're reading their press clippings a little bit Maybe they're getting a little high on themselves and here they now go on the road against the team That's been kind of looking forward to this opportunity to prove themselves for a while And that's all kind of narrative nonsense the way I look at it This is still going to be extremely Extremely tough for joshie Allen to find any kind of room to pass in this in this in this setting The patriots defense has done a really nice job at confusing young quarterbacks throughout the years And that was with much lesser personnel that then they're trotting out there on sunday I can you know, I this has all of the makings to me of a lot of people talking themselves into a You know a contrarian look here on the buffalo bills Look at the you know, this line should be higher people You know the sharps are on the bills And then they kind of look up halfway through the game and or three quarters way through the game And they're like when are the bills ever going to score a point here? And you know on the other side of the ball, uh, the patriots offense has you know, I have some concerns about You know the way that they're rostered right now The offensive line still needs to come together They've lost some pretty important pieces in terms of centers and tackles and guards and granted We know don't don't a star neck scar neck. He is the the greatest offensive line coach of our generation Um, and I don't think it's close and so by the end of the season He'll have this unit together, but you know on the road Potentially a pretty hostile environment This could be a little bit of an uneven performance from this team There could be some miscommunication between you know brady and his new center And there's really only one dynamic weapon on this offense in josh gordon And if he's not connecting with you know, they're out any way out of sync Which is possible given that you know that there's some cover corners on this bill's team that are Very very that you absolutely have to respect You know if they're in any way, you know, not not connecting not on the same page Or unable to to hit a home run in this game This sets up very well for a field position sort of battle I would expect that the patriots are on top late in the game can put this away But the fact that their offensive line is a little uneven and their running game hasn't gotten going very You know to this point in the season Is a little bit troublesome and it sets up for bills to kind of get a garbage garbage time You know backdoor cover here But the under at 43 and a half was a no doubter for me this week And I would I would still play it even at 42 42 and a half whatever it is right now Going back to the bill's offense here quickly We know that bill bellichick's kind of mo as a defensive mind is to take away the opposing team's best asset I mean, he doesn't need to take away john brown because stafan gilmore is good at doing that himself But like you think about the bill's best asset outside of that is josh allen running Yes, bill bellichick's not gonna let that happen. Yes great call. Yeah, you think through it Yeah, what what do you stop for if you're if you're over the bills? Yes, josh allen Has not shown an ability to to really beat you as a passer to this point in his career You know him, you know converting long You know third downs with his legs has been the mo to this point when they've you know been clicking on offense And yeah, if you're if you're a bill bell checking company I think you're you know, you're utilizing your your strength and your speed is with your line back in core And then you're neutralizing that in a heartbeat And yeah bills bills, you know over punts in this game is probably a good look too This is this game has kind of this this is like a good ugly kind of game It sets up really for you know for uh for a game where You know people are excited coming into it and then they're watching like what did I just watch? This is this is awful. But uh, yeah under under for me in this one was it was uh, it was a nice look Nice. Well, let's move on to cowboys at saints. You've already talked a little bit about cowboys in their scheme and how much you like that Uh, you talked about the last time you were on the show how you did not like new orleans And now they do not have drew breeze in this game Uh, gotta win at seattle last week, but some fluky plays there. They were never really down or challenged in that game How are you looking at this game cowboys minus two and a half? Yeah, this is a this the market reaction on on the side here was a little strange I thought that the you know the look ahead we expected to see dallas in minus two and a half Opens at three Trickles up to three and a half before someone came back with uh, you know a brinks truck and just unloaded on the saints brought it back Across three which is surprising And it's now at two and a half. I think there's Almost certainly value on the cowboys at that number. Um, I think the cowboys are a clear Truly, uh, you know a clear contender in the nfc. Whereas the saints team with teddy bridge water I grayed out is about a seven and nine eight and eight type of team And the fact that it's at home For the saints is probably the only Deeming factor or the only differentiating factor you can point to and say that gives them a chance If you look at what happened last week, you brought it up. There were a lot of fluky plays in that game And what's kind of funny that I've noticed in this young season to this point It used to be pretty tried and true Situational handicapping angle that you could count on fading Road teams on the second of back-to-backs early in the season just because after the new cba There were less, you know less opportunities to get teams conditioned So, you know the fatigue and you know the wear and tear of travel early in the season You really used to wear those teams, you know wear teams down and the road teams would underperform That has completely been turned on its head this season to this point back-to-back road teams are covering six at Oh, and in a lot of cases they're just blowing out the home team And we saw it two obvious examples of that two weeks ago the Niners rather than flying across the country twice They stay in Ohio They spend a full week kind of preparing and practicing and what do they look like when they take the field? They are complete Focused dynamic all three phases of the game everything was clicking The same situation presents itself last week where the Saints instead of going home from Los Angeles go straight to the northwest spend a week on the road prepping focused Preparation and they look absolutely superlative in special teams and on defense The offense was still Extremely limited by teddy bridge water and it's surprising to me that he was as sought after by them For their system it never really made sense to me. He's a very very different type of passer than trooperies And so it was always sort of a misfit and I expected last week I backed that over expecting that with a week of prep You would see Sean Payton integrate some new looks some different wrinkles some you know some rpo's something to kind of Get teddy going because to this point teddy bridge water in the Saints uniform has been Absolutely terrible at the quarterback position and I've you know, I've always attributed to it that they're they're asking him to do What he's not good at doing and with a week to prepare they should have been You know, they should have been a little bit more innovative a little bit more dynamic Instead his average depth of target was like less than five yards Like he was legitimately running a check down offense Trying to you know trying to play keep away from the Seattle Seahawks And you know that was turned out to be the right approach because if they didn't get the special teams and defensive type of Type of touchdowns in that game Seattle was coming back and winning that one And so this is that this is a really troubling This is a really troubling situation that the Saints find themselves in If they have another five weeks here without Drew Brees against some pretty stiff competition They are in deep trouble And I think the we've they've kind of tipped their hand at least Sean Payton I feel like has kind of tipped his hand You know innovative offensive mind was not able to get Teddy Bridgewater going with a full week of focused preparation This spells trouble and you know the fact that the Cowboys are clicking as well as they are But we haven't really seen them play stiff competition And they are going to be without Michael Gallup. So they only have one wide receiver who can create separation and get open This sets the self up pretty well for me for an under This got bet up from 45 to 47 And at that point I just you know, I had to throw my hands up this I handicapped this game Both you know, both teams are going to have a tough time getting to 20 points from you know the way I I see this playing out the way that this game script is likely to go And and so i'm on under 47 here and i'm pretty happy that That I got a couple extra free points by that getting bet up Yeah, and so you mentioned you like maybe some value on the Cowboys you like the under which one do you Feel better about Cowboys minus two and a half or under 47 I would say under 47 only because the only because I you know, I like There's there is there was some friskiness and there was some There was some impressive aspects of the Saints from a defensive standpoint against Seattle And you have to kind of again kind of divorce how much of that was Seattle running minus cv plays And how much of that was Saints defense playing up? But you know, there there are some there are some Aspects of the Saints defense that you have to respect cam Jordan is a monster March on loud and more can cover although we've seen him regress substantially in his abilities since his rookie year Marcus Williams can play effective safety although we've seen him regress since his rookie year So there you know, there are there are pieces there to be respectful for in the Saints defense and the fact that You know that place is going to be rocking it is going to be loud There's some potential for a little bit of you know disruption of communication for the Cowboys offensive line And you know that I think there's there's enough Kind of small contributing factors here that lend themselves more to and under than backing the Cowboys at minus two and a half But I really couldn't talk anyone off of Cowboys if they felt strongly about it All right, any other bets you want to mention on the board for NFL week number four before let you go here? Well, it can be numbers that you grabbed that may not be available But anything else you see out there that you like as far as a value perspective goes Yeah on Monday night football This line made no sense to me I thought the look ahead was fair at around minus three minus three and a half and then they opened at minus four and a half I'm not sure if they saw what I saw watching that Steelers gaming in san francisco The Steelers were exceptionally lucky to come away with that cover. They could have had their doors blown off If it were not for five turnovers from the Niners in that game The Steelers are down by multiple touchdowns for majority of that contest The Steelers defense even with the acquisition of manka Fitzpatrick is severely lacking The the the book is out the book is out on how you put pressure on that team And even though the Bengals do not necessarily make for a very inspiring road team to back You know, they do they have shown some Friskiness in in two and one and a half games this season They should have won that game in seattle week one They had a lot of nice looks in terms of what they were doing on offense specifically in the passing game that you know If they roll that approach out against the Steelers team, they're going to be you know They're going to be playing from ahead at most of this game And I think they kind of recaptured a little bit of that in the second half against the bills You know, they they rediscovered some of the things that were working for them week one I'm hopeful that they build on that in this game and that they you know That they trot out the same sort of approach here because I gotta tell you Mason Rudolph is not Look like the answer for this Pittsburgh Steelers team and you know And there were some flashes when he came in as a replacement for Rottlesburger and that's Seattle game. There were some things that they were doing that were pretty good But in the in the Niners on the road the follow up to that He was very underwhelming and the stat sheet kind of lied a little bit in terms of his performance because So many of those yards that he gained through the air were Juju Smith Schuster yards after catch and I think he had one pass in that entire game that I thought was You know relatively like NFL level quarterback ready kind of pass The rest of it was was very underwhelming. So the the Bengals at plus four and a half was a good look for me I think that's a three-point game either way and then As far as we covered the two two unders I like I don't have any overs on the board this week And then handful of road teams the the chiefs Taking a swing at the Bucks at plus 10 I think that's a competitive game with the the Rams looking ahead potentially to their Thursday night contest against the seahawks And yeah, the Bucks Bengals chiefs. I think I'm only backing road teams this week, which is kind of wild but I'm sure I'm oh Cleveland Browns actually too. This is a decent by low spot on the Cleveland Browns You know, this is again kind of A ton of my plays have been a little bit of what I feel like our our market over reactions to specific weak results And we expected to see this game You know look ahead was baltimore minus three and a half Baltimore played their butts off in Kansas City to get that cover But they left a lot on the field up there They played damn hard in that game and they were out there for an awful lot of that game and their defense got exposed You know every time that they were you know that there were three wide receiver sets run against them They look confused. They looked under under manned And that happens to be the one thing that freddy kitchens is doing a heck of a lot of this year Hasn't been effective yet, but against this defense He should should finally see some things click if they trot that out again And so I think the you know the browns who played this ravens team pretty pretty tightly twice through this, uh, you know Through the two baker mayfield starts in 2018. I think You know is with a familiar opponent with uh, you know with the limitations of the ravens defense This sets up as a competitive spot for the browns and seven points is you know Four three and a half four points too many so that was an easy one to grab to We saw the cardinals move the ball against the ravens on the road And they have a they have the worst second worst offensive line of football so they can move it the browns can't do All right, that is whale capper find him on twitter at whale underscore capper He is host the deep dive podcast well I want to thank you for stopping by for today and spreading a lot of good knowledge phone conversation And hopefully we'll talk to you again soon. Good luck in week four Hey, thanks again for having me you guys have been i've been enjoying the podcast Greatly keep up the great work and uh, you know, hope to talk to you guys again soon awesome. Thank you so much I appreciate it covering the future One final big thank you to whale capper for coming on here and chatting about week four of the nfl And ed I always feel smarter when we talk to drew because he you can tell he puts in a lot of the work And you can tell that he's passionate about this and just talking to him I always enjoyed a lot and I always come away like feeling very happy at the end Yeah, absolutely You can tell that he puts both the work in on having a number with his earthquake engineering background You can actually hear him talk a lot more about that. I had him on my podcast last year His appearance has not yet happened this year, but hopefully that will happen soon But he talked a little bit about his earthquake engineering background and a little bit of the stuff that goes into his model So so he's got the quantitative side and yet also knows these teams in depth Uh, you know, and I think that's what really what it takes to be successful Betting the nfl right now. Absolutely. And uh, he's it seemed like he had a good read on all the games we discussed So uh, it was definitely a lot of fun to appreciate whale swinging by for today before I take a look at cover in the future Ed and I always preach searching for the best value when betting on games Well, look no further than the new odds comparison our engineers have developed over at number fire dot com Odds fire is the premier odds comparison experience across major bookmakers in the regulated us market compare odds Quickly identify the best value and even examine first party fan dual data all in one place Never settle always get the best odds check out the experience for free now on number fire or at odds fire dot com gambling problem call 1 800 gambler Let's dive into covering the future here for week number four ed starting off with you You want to talk the black and blue division the nfc north the vikings traveling to face the chicago bears on the road In chicago as of right now this game is minnesota plus two and a half the total here is 38 That sounds about right, but what do you see in this game ed between the bears and the vikings? Yeah, and when we talk this pre-season about the issues with michael trubisky and and chicago offense and and some early returns Definitely based on small sample size Seem to bear that out I'm able to take success rate and adjust for strength of schedule after three weeks of the nfl season so i'm getting some early returns on these numbers um And chicago's pass offense is 25th and the rush offense is is 29th So they're they're really not being efficient on that side of the ball Also, you know, we kind of talked about expecting a little bit of regression on the defensive side of the ball The unit was obviously very elite last year So far this year 14th overall defense and success rate. So But one thing that is similar to last year is that they're they're creating takeaways They have six so far this year A couple gifts in the demver game jill flacco overthrew receiver in the flat right near the goal line for an interception that really changed that game They were able to take away a couple takeaways that really helped them get out to a 21-0 lead against washington on that monday night game As well, but you know, you don't want to live on these takeaways and and i think chicago has done that so far You know on the other side, you know, minnesota hasn't really looked great from an efficiency standpoint yet They're all fences 15th the defense is 21st, which is really definitely lower than than I expected them To be but they are doing one thing well and that's running the football When I look at success rate on running adjusted for who you played their second in the nfl And they've been effective with with dalvin cook Normally jim we talk about not, you know, not running the ball on these early downs minnesota is doing that but a little bit of an excuse for it because they are doing it with with some pretty good efficiency When we'll boil it all down My model says chicago should win by about 1.8 points. I really like this Minnesota plus three I'll still lean at it at plus two and a half, which is what You can get the last time I checked the fandall sportsbook. There's a lot of a lot of twos out there Which obviously I would not be in favor of But still going against chicago. Yeah, two and a half is still what's up at the fandall sportsbook right now and Trabisky On monday night It was a very conservative approach. I would say he had that one amazing throw to taylor gabriel and I love that but like I haven't seen a whole lot to convince me otherwise from what we've seen so far From what we saw last year where he looked a lot worse than the numbers were also He's not running the ball We talked about this with josh allen where the best part of the bill's offense was josh allen running And that was kind of one of the best parts of the the bears last year was mitral twisky running But he's not running this year and it's not something that I would say he's not going to run But it has caught my attention uh and from just on a Per drop-back basis marcus mariota grades up better than mitral twisky this year and everyone hates mariota and like There are reasons to he's looked pretty bad But twisky hasn't been good and I feel like this number moving This number being chicago by three, which is what it was initially Seemed a little bit fueled by the twisky performance of money night. Um, I I think I would be inclined to go with minnesota too I don't have a good enough read on it to actually like bet it Minnesota plus two and a half, but my lean would very much be with them I I have not seen enough from twisky to feel good about him yet Yeah No, I I agree and and you know I mean he can give you a little bit of confidence on some short throws once in a while, but Um, well, I mean we'll see what the rest of the season brings Yeah, all right So let's move on here to the texans and the panthers and I like this game On the over here because the total has risen. It's risen one and a half points since it opened So I wouldn't wait if you want to bet this one. It's already moved But I still think that 47 and a half is a pretty good number here to bet the over It's a game between two fast teams, which is kind of what I'm looking for when I'm betting totals Because the texans are 10th in situation neutral pace according to football outsiders and the panthers are ninth So two top 10 teams in pace and the texans haven't shown that yet Uh, but it also makes sense because the three teams that they have faced this year are all in the bottom 10 in pace They face the 24th 29th and 32nd rake teams in situation neutral pace So you wouldn't expect their games to blow up. But when you look at this texans team And the moves they made this off season Every single one of them would say bet the over they added larry me tonsil. That's good for their offense They added kenny stills. I think kenny stills is a very talented football player That helps their offense too when he did play a lot of snaps last week So he's in that offense. They traded judevi and clowny. They lost tyron matthew in free agency That hurts their defense. So the texans are a team I would expect to play in a lot of higher scoring games last week carolina Didn't have cam newton, but they were still decently past heavy not as past heavy as they were the first two weeks But they threw on first and second down 60 of the time in the first half That's about middle of the pack So moving to this one where it's a game where they're probably not going to get ahead by a ton Like they did against arizona I would expect them to pass here, especially with the texans being a pretty poor defense against the pass that secondary is not good So what we have here is two Pretty solid offenses with good personnel That will both operate quickly. It's two defenses that are good But they're not good enough to make me fear them too much So I think the over here does make sense at 47 and a half. I liked it more at 46 But I think 47 and a half still makes sense and I would not be shocked if this one does move up A bit more before the close any read for you add on either the texans or the panthers for this week Because I think that both these teams are pretty interesting overall and I do like both of them largely Yeah, I mean, I don't think I want to say is you know, um You know, I thought about uh chargers minus three or whatever was that last week because my number was like them And I just I couldn't do it with all the injuries they had in the secondary And so, you know, how much do you want to disc? I mean, I guess it has been the chargers secondary that they played That they put out there all year Which is really struggled and I feel like they're going to waste the year of philip rivers as the guy Tick tick tick gets gets older. So unfortunately for that franchise, but you know, definitely something you need to account for when You know, you're thinking about how explosive uh, hueson's offense can be right and uh, you mentioned philip rivers I love philip rivers like watching him play is a joy and it stinks that he never gets the credit He deserves because like yeah, he's this he's just been this efficient passer his entire career But because he doesn't have the postseason resume no one cares and I'm like, yeah Look at this. Look at how good this dude's been with like yeah, and they can't and they can't even get him out a coach that will You know modernize Okay, this is maybe a bad take on my part, but I like anthony a little lots. Um He is someone who we talked about with seattle about how they were going to throw it to running backs and early downs And you were like, hey, you know, that's not always a good situation And you were proven correct by the way they have used chris karson this year It's been stupid the way they've been throwing in the football But the chargers use their running backs in downfield passing, which is the only we see the chiefs do too I like that a lot. So I actually think anthony lane is better than perception. Uh, but you are He isn't his like fourth down decision making like one of the worst It's bad. Uh, the situational stuff is bad. Um, yes I would agree with that but from like, uh An offensive game plan perspective. I think he's good. He's also is super slow Like the the offense operates slow, which just mucks up games and I hate that Which is why I'm surprised that they were 16 and a half point favorites Even if it is on the road, uh against the dolphins, but whatever, you know, I mean, I love rivers, too I mean, can you imagine him with bellachak or something? Oh my goodness. I'd love to, you know, like Anyway, that that's that I guess that's the context in which I think about The the philip rivers appreciation podcast now scheduled for the off season at some point And we're recording this on thursday because you've got something fun going on this weekend and As a non-runner, it sounds like a nightmare to me What exactly are you doing this weekend? So there's this ragnar relay thing. It's a 200 mile relay amongst 12 people I actually learned that they do ultra ragnars, which are 200 mile relays with six people which Sounds insane even to me, but you know, I'm a runner. I mean, I I've got three legs It's like a six mile and eight mile and then a three mile So, you know, the running is you know, it's just it's just fun for me The thing I'm kind of fearing in my first experience in this 200 mile relay is the lack of sleep It starts friday morning. It ends saturday sometime and You're supposed to kind of doze off in the van a little bit In the middle there. I'm not exactly sure how this is going to work And you can ask my wife about how I operate with less than optimal sleep So, but you know, it's an experience Maybe an experience, uh, I should have scheduled not during football season, but um, you know, some friends asked me to do it I said yes, so heading out a little later today And uh, I don't know. I feel pretty good. Is this the first time you've done this It's the first time I've done this. I mean, I've run a lot of marathons. I could still run a lot of half marathons Yeah, um But yeah, I mean it uh, it should it should be fun. It's it's a good group of people Interesting and that's the most important thing. Well, good luck. Uh, you said ragnar and I'm Partner region in my mind like he's like wait a minute like I'm also from minnesota And uh, they used to have this guy who would dress up like a viking and his name was ragnar Um, and it like yeah, that's that's why it was inspired by him and that's why they took that name Oh, really? I forget the exact story But yeah, I mean it's kind of interesting because if you're trying to look up relay stuff Like you got to sort through a bunch of viking videos on youtube first, right? You got to know how to game google a little bit But you know, I mean it it's a it's a bunch of yopis getting out there and Having fun and pretending like you're in college again and uh, you know, we don't have any Costumes or anything like that, but I think a lot of a lot of teams do that. Um We have a mixture of serious runners and not a serious runner. So it's not a lot of pressure it's just You know me personally like I run because I like the feeling of running fast and yeah You know, it takes a lot of training and you don't necessarily get to do that all the time Sure, because you'll kill yourself if you do that every day Right, but just try to enjoy these times when you actually get to do it My mom does own a costume shop. So if you ever want costumes, I can be your plug there So let me know more than happy To help out the team there for sure. Um, you had rufus on your your podcast this week, right? Yep. Yep. Rufus Peabody a professional sports better a really A guy really look up to in terms of what he does from a modeling perspective and How he's able to use that with his betting. So yeah, it's gotten a great reception on twitter So, uh, definitely go check that out. Yeah, check out the football analytics show wherever you get your podcast You can find ed on twitter at the powerink and all of his work over at the powerink.com Ed good luck with your run I hope that it goes well and hopefully you are still standing with us By the time we talk college football next week on wednesday I will be there. I may be a little tired. We'll see. Hopefully I've recovered a little bit by wednesday Take the weekend. That's that's what I would say If you have any questions for me, I am on twitter at jimsonnes j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you goes out to calvin theobald our producer for working the video side of things for today Big thank you to cow as always and a thank you to whalecapper for swinging by and spreading his knowledge about nfl For week number four and finally of course a thank you to all of you for listening out there for today And always don't forget to subscribe to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast while you're there Please leave a rating and review as well. Good luck with your bets in college football week five and nfl week four We'll talk to you once again next week. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network