 is we have our man it's wednesday of course we do let's jump over our man teddy keg stat uh... teddy let's get right into it man good morning good morning tom you got a little groove there i did man apologies i didn't see the note i was rockin i was rolling but yeah boy we got to talk to you this week man folks teddy watson outstanding newsletter tiger four x report uh... let's jump into the yen if we can first had to get things up would you would would you think a yesterday's action man uh... well i think it's amazing the japanese finally pulled the trigger uh... they haven't done that and let's see who knows how long you know we've been wondering what they we thought that they were gonna maybe do something months ago and they never did uh... now they do have a new chairman for the uh... bank of japan coming in a few months so the question is is this a one-move deal or are they gonna do some more now i think you should really pay attention to the low yesterday uh... we had a nice sell-off very nice break obviously on the news doesn't surprise anyone that the study and you know some did that yesterday because of that move now the reality is the low of yesterday did not take out the low of august now on a fundamental just a fundamental analysis you have to think about this was it support that held and didn't make a new low or is it because it was way oversold and it was really a news driven break you know and i think it's really the latter than the former because you have to think about this where were our interest rates back in august since then we've had three fed rate hikes so all the all that happened yesterday was a kind of neutralize the what the fed did last week okay so that tells me that unless the bank of japan is going to do this a little bit more to defend their currency or for whatever reason uh... i would say that i would key off of the low from yesterday and i think that's a pretty good support basis because just on a fundamental basis there's no reason for the u s dollar yen not to trade higher right now because that move doesn't really impact things and we already know that we got it right and the general media got it wrong as far as the fed stands we know the fed's gonna raise again in the next meeting we know that they're going to continue to fight inflation now are they going to be as aggressive of course not but we were already planning on that to begin with and i think the overall market is too it's not it's not an extra extra news flash it really isn't you know but that also means if the japanese do continue to do things they're gonna do it at our pace so that doesn't really support the yen versus the dollar very much long-term all it does is kind of keep it from getting uh... as hit as it is so it might happen now as we start to develop a range trade between one thirty and one fifty with the u.s. dollar yen so i think that's something that your yen traders i know you got a lot of gold traders that watch the yen should take that into account you know so unless there's an aggressive change in the bank of japan which that probably will not happen excuse me until uh... next probably the end of uh... the first quarter of next year going into the second quarter of uh... next year okay so because they have a big turnover and it's when remember the japanese don't usually do things very quickly they plan things out they're fairly transparent not so much about when they're going to do something obviously that was proven over the past few months uh... but we do know that they are paying attention you know it's not like they're asleep at the wheel you know so the question is is now are they gonna get a little more aggressive we don't know yet we have to find out what happens in the next couple of months with that one yeah i was watching the markets think was a monday night and i saw the market moves in the den is that what's going on there and uh... and just the timing of things ten o'clock at night i think i was a thing what's going on in asia right now many sure enough there was something going on uh... can we bring it to the dollar today on that as we obviously saw some movement but nothing like what we saw in the den what you take on the dollar right now sitting just at about one oh four okay what i think exactly well you know what we had obviously dollars under pressure the last couple of days uh... but today is kind of it's it's a really mixed bag of goods you know you have the pound in the euro that are slightly lower in the others are one are little higher lower versus a dollar so i think you have to key off the low from a few sessions back on from the tiger report we announced that that low was a target area that we were looking for and it was a big fibonacci area is a lot of support but just on a harmonic value that low is very solid and i think that as long as that holds especially with the interest rate market starting to sell off again you know like today the interest rates are slightly higher i think that's a profit taking rally uh... i do believe the interest rates are going to continue to trade lower because we're not nearly we're at where the market factors in where the interest rate levels really are especially with what we know that there are more hikes to come so we're more likely to head more to towards new lows in the interest rate markets than we are highs and and that i think is going to impact the dollar as well so i think it's stabilizing because the media is so bearish the dollar right now you almost have to be a buyer short-term and when you're talking about lower you talking about lower price and higher yield on the correct correct nice interest rate markets for a thirty year in the ten-year correct what do you think of the general conversation right now going on with you know what the market is implying with what the fed may do versus what the fed is saying they may do it's interesting i was just having a conversation with somebody really not in the market yesterday and they were just talking about fixed income in general and they're thinking about putting some money in fixed income retirement not a bad time maybe you put it in a ladder if you just really trying to be conservative in this person was uh... and then the whole conversation goes what do you think of and cheese nobody's got the answers man but i'm just interested in your take in terms of going out further right the the yield on the ten-year the inversion going on uh... it's interesting the whole dichotomy of the difference of analysis with some brilliant minds on wall street that are all disagreeing to one degree another in terms of does the ten-year deserve to be a three point seven right now we really going to be cutting or is it going to rise as the market comes to the realization that you know what the fed is right and they're not you know spitball and they're actually say what they're going to do what's your general take a of that conversation that's gonna keep on pressing it for a while we're not turning yet can you stay with us stay with us one break right we'll be right back for this one's important one right back welcome back folks we got the markets lifting up a bit with the s&p's near twenty nine positive uh... said teddy as i was saying there if you can finish that thought because a lot of people wonder man where rates go next year what's your general take on people looking for how you may be perceived where the fed will be as we come through next year on their rate cycle some of the very easy the trend is your friend uh... we've been view i have at least if we consider no from our shows in our talks over the past couple months that the pullback in the u.s. dollar and the pullback in the old should be viewed as a correction for the mere fact that it's in the on a longer and mid-term basis it still is in a trend okay so let's say that i'm right and we're in a correction that means that the correction should come to an end at a fairly sometime around now and over the next couple of months or so at least because we still have another leg lower or meanings meaning lowering you are higher yield lower bond prices and also a higher rallying dollar index i think if you want to be a dollar bear in the true test is gonna be when we when we get back up to those levels because let's say that all the so let's say that the market the media's right the dollars turned the dollars a bear well then that would mean that we would be in a cell rally forecast so we should have a rally in the dollar the falls short of the previous high and that would be where the market falls apart and then starts to drift lower if that's the case that's when you get bears to dollar and i think that right now we have to view things as we have been in a correction and now the real trend is coming back at least for the next couple of months because we know the fed is solid on their stance so until that happens you know and we don't know you know everyone says all the ecb finally did this they're gonna be aggressive well they don't have the bullets to do with the fed did last year they're not going to be doing three quarter of a points every month or so or even that's not gonna happen out of them you know and i don't think that even if they keep pace with us it's just gonna be keeping pace with us so that neutralizes that trade you know and you're not gonna see japan get aggressive you know but now i'm not saying that things won't change come the second quarter of next year a lot has to happen we have to see where inflation is you gotta remember that we have a war going on that they said was only going to last two months because russia was gonna go broke and put would be deposed while we're going on almost a year and that's not the case you know and it's way heavy on the european economy and us so we'll see i think that's the case right now friends are a lot of variables i appreciate the tape man uh... as always teddy have a great christmas man and uh... we look forward to talking next week okay sounds good mary christmas guys it's all the time that i was out there folks stay tuned basil chapman's up next we'll see you tomorrow