 Jag är väldigt glömt att du är välkomna till Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences och idag är det Gordon Goodman Memorial Lecture. The Academy is an independent organization with the overall objective to promote the sciences and strengthen their influence in society and we do this in different ways. In addition to serving as a forum where researchers can meet across subject borders we reward prominent research by distinguished prices. I guess you all know that we are fortunate to reward several Nobel prizes from this academy. We arrange international scientific contacts and meetings of various kinds and as I said we act as a voice of science of science in society and work to influence the importance of science in society and political decision making in such activities. The academy has a high profile in sustainability and environmentally related questions. This includes climate change and global warming and the closely related question about production and supply of energy to an increasing world population. The academy is hosting a number of institutes and organizations. This includes the international secretariat for the International Geosphere Biosphere Program, IGBP and of course the Bayer Institute of Ecological Economics which as you all know probably is a leading international research institute where Gordon Goodman was the first director. We also host of course the Swedish secretariat for environmental earth system sciences says one of the co-organizers of this afternoon's lecture and discussion. In this connection I also would take the opportunity to mention our recently established MISTRA Council for Evidence Based Environmental Management, EVEM which works to promote evidence based environmental management. All these activities as well as several others within environmental sustainability field are coordinated through the academy's committee for environmental questions which serves as a reference and node and contact point for the academy. As you have understood now the topic of today's lecture and the discussion is very much in line with this profile of the academy. And it's therefore a pleasure for us to serve as a host for this afternoon. And now we look all forward to a very interesting afternoon together. I know what want to leave the word to Neda Farabaxrassad who is a science advisor at the Swedish secretariat for environmental earth system sciences says, please Neda. And Madam Minister, ladies and gentlemen, on behalf of the Swedish secretariat for environmental earth system sciences, I welcome you to this Gordon Goodman Memorial Lecture. We cannot talk about Gordon Goodman and his efforts to promote sustainable development without realizing that to face our environmental and social economical challenges we need collaboration. Collaboration between science and policy, between research and development and between North and South and among a wide range of other actors. Our secretariat is actually a small model of collaboration itself. It is a partnership between Swedish research funders, the academy and the Swedish international development agency CEDA. Together we work to link better the Swedish science with international programs and initiatives. We try to communicate global change issues with policy and decision makers. And we promote research collaboration between North and South on the issues of global environmental change and sustainable development. Organizing this seminar together with SDI and the academy gives us the opportunity to learn and to discuss how science and development and policy could and should interact. And who could better discuss these issues with us than Professor Tvayuka. Thank you again and I would like now to give the floor to my colleague Robert Watt from Stockholm Environment Institute for his welcoming notes. Thank you. Thanks very much, Nida. Good afternoon everybody. My name is Robert Watt. I'm director of communications at Stockholm Environment Institute. Before I welcome our keynote speaker, the Honorable Professor Anna Tvayuka to the stage, I'd like to tell you a little bit about Gordon Goodman. Gordon was born in Wales. He was born among the rolling hills of Wales, but also the coal mines of Wales. And this environment left an impression on him throughout his life. And I think is an illustration of how he was committed and interested not only in the natural environment but also in man's and woman's impression and footprint that they leave on the natural environment and the interrelation between people and nature. And that interest is one that he carried with him throughout the whole of his life. And indeed it has set its mark on SEI. He was the first executive director of Stockholm Environment Institute and we at SEI very much try and work on the interface between people and nature to understand the interactions between the two of them. Something else that marked out Gordon was the fact that he was somehow before his own time. He was very interested in gathering data and understanding things about people and environment. And talked about evidence-based decision making, about the way in which scientific research can support the public policy making. And he was talking about that way before Bono of U2 talked about factivists, which we heard just recently. He was somehow way before his time. And again, that's something that's left its mark at SEI, where we believe that scientific insights can be brought to bear on public policy and can help us in our journey towards sustainable development. Now this is a bit of a relay race here and we're almost over and I can hand the baton very shortly over to our keynote speaker. And as with all relay races, the last person in the relay race is really the most talented, the one who can run the fastest. And it is a huge pleasure to be able to invite to the stage, the Honourable Professor Anati Bajuka, who really has a unique experience and insight into some of those issues around the interaction of humans and environment, through not only her current role as a minister in the Tanzanien government, but also through her long experience working as the director of UN Habitat. And it's great pleasure to be able to invite Minister Tibadjuka to the stage. Give her a warm welcome. Thank you very much, Robert, for that kind, those kind remarks, your excellences, the distinguished participants to this afternoon's address. Ladies and gentlemen, let me start by saying that I'm so pleased to be here. I'm actually honoured to be here and I have to start by saying that Ambassador Bushelen invited me. I found him at Alanda waiting and he's spoiling me, so it's good that I'm leaving this afternoon. Please give him a hand of applause on my behalf. So my dear friends, as the countdown to 2015 has started and in vogue, it is no longer whether to achieve the millennium development goals, but what to do next after them. We meet here in Stockholm to commemorate and honour a great scholar, a visionary, a humanist and environmentalist. Gordon Goodman, as we have just heard, like his name, he was indeed a good man who lived a good life and spent his intellect and energies in service of mankind in pursuit of a better world. A man born ahead of his time, I must say, Gordon coined the word sustainable development long before the majority of mankind could contemplate its importance. Let alone appreciate how that mission would come to be humanity's single most important challenge. I thank the Stockholm Environmental Institute and the organisers for the honour of inviting me as the lead speaker on certain auspicious occasion. I apologise that given my reality, I could not be able to give you my text before this afternoon, but I promise to make up for that here and now. So ladies and gentlemen, Gordon Goodman spent his life working as we all know for sustainable development. In my case, freight would later put me at centre stage of working on one forgotten aspect of that subject matter, namely sustainable urbanisation. For 1998, I had left my home country, Tanzania, and applied for a job to work for the United Nations in its trade and romance secretariat in Geneva. I was then the director of the office of the list of developed countries in charge of preparing government people from my part of the world in trade negotiations at the WTO. My tenure in Geneva was to be short lived because the then Secretary General of the United Nations of the day, Mr. Kofi Annan, had wanted an economist working on urban issues and urban poverty. So in 2000 I was transferred from Geneva to work in Nairobi and landed at the Habitat Centre. So against that backdrop, I found myself in what was then mission impossible. How was I going to convince the world that our future is urban and that if we are going to make any progress, we have to sort out the urban environment. So the statistics speak for themselves. The rural population was at 63% in 1970. By the year 2000, we are becoming an urban species. And by 2030, even Africa will no longer be a rural continent. The majority of Africans we have crossed in two cities and towns. So the future is urban, we say homo sapiens is now homo urbanus. So against that backdrop, I said how the hell am I going to position myself here to do this work. But luckily in that very of 2000 when I was moved to Nairobi, the head of state summit meeting in New York passed the Millennium Declaration. And with it the MDGs, particularly goal 7 was titled as environmental sustainability. And under it were three targets of interest this afternoon. Biodiversity, one on safe drinking water and the other was on some upgrading. This is what was packaged by the world leaders as environmental sustainability. I felt this framework offered a wonderful opportunity to do my work. And I then continued to conceptualize and put up a frame within which we could now promote sustainable development. Working on sustainable urbanization. So the focus is on health, on livelihoods and on target 11 also called slum upgrading. In a more abstract sense you can look at it like that from the word of science and research. That the urban slum like the elephant in the Indian folk tale or in the African folklore has been discovered by six experts, each wearing the blinkers of professional bias of course. The first expert describes the slum as pothold streets, dilapidated shantys and lack of water and sanitation. And for those of you not familiar with my part of the world, let me say this is our challenge. People moving very quickly into cities and towns. So if we don't put our act together, we are going to end up. That will be the slum population over the years. It would mean that by 2020 when the millennium development goal on slums will be evaluated. Because while the others are ending in 2015, the one on slums was considered as an enormous challenge. So the heads of states gave themselves slightly more time. So this is where we expect, under business as usual scenario, the slum population will keep growing. By 2050 if you can think that far, this is likely to be the scenario. So where do we find these slum dwellers? The majority, the depth of the slum populations over 262 million is found in Sub-Saharan Africa. Here almost 70% of the urban poor are living in slums and informal settlements. Then you have south east Asia, etc. So this is how it looks like according to the UN Habitat Projections. As you are all aware, speaking at this distinguished scientific community, you know that climate change has not made things easy for anybody. And what is happening is that we have now environmental variability. So the incidents of disasters of all sorts are playing themselves out there, complicating our story. So natural and human-made disasters. There are some people who have argued that they are hardly in a natural-made disaster. Somewhere humans are a culprit, whether directly or indirectly. But we can see that this is a challenge facing us. But in Africa, and I'm going to be focusing on African perspectives, basically Nairobi, I decided that my starting point would be in the sprawling settlement called Kibera. For those of you who have been there, this is a satellite image of Kibera where we have about 750,000 people on only 250 hectares of land. And here you can see the shame over where this is Nairobi royal golf course sitting on top of this slum. This used to be the Nairobi dam. It was one of the most beautiful places. And people used to come from London to enjoy the Nairobi dam, but it is no more because it is now all polluted by the effluent, the sewage, basically the pollution from Kibera. So inside Kibera, this is life inside Kibera. So you can see that there is vitality, the challenge here. If I go back to our goal, remember we are seasoned with goal seven, environmental sustainability. So safe drinking water, how do you provide safe drinking water in this? How do you secure sanitation? So you can see solid waste. How do you then improve the shocks? This is some upgrading. How do you improve these kind of structures? But I know it looks quite disappointing, but it is not all in vain. Because look, this also happens in Kibera. There is youth, there are children growing up there, and you can trust children to find funny under any circumstances. So you can find that they are enjoying themselves. So I would like to say that within this background of different professionals, everybody pulling on their side, I did say and I would like to repeat that the first expert describes the slum as it's pothold streets which are shown, the dilapidated shanties and the lack of water and sanitation. The second one is going to see disease, hunger and illiteracy. Another expert will join in to say political and economic repression and exploitation of women and the children they support. Another expert could quickly come with rejoinder, see the slum as the locus of unemployment and refugee for crime. The fifth in terms of environmental degradation and pollution I saw on things that we shouldn't see. But the sixth sleeping off our different intellectual biases will see poverty. Ladies and gentlemen, arriving in Nairobi I decided to focus on poverty. So this afternoon I will be concentrating on the challenge of solving urban poverty as a mission to sustainable development. I would like to say that after half center of treating selected symptoms of poverty, the millennium development goals constitute a first comprehensive attempt by the international community to address this endemic schools through a consensus on multiple measurable targets. It is remarkable that five of the first ten millennium development goal targets namely hunger, child mortality, maternal mortality, HIV AIDS, malaria and major diseases, and water and basic sanitation all rate to improved health. And that's the other four, income, primary schooling, gender disparity, in education and loss of environmental resources, improved livelihood, all have linkages to health. So sustainable development is also about delivering health. Target 11, which was my main focus, however, improving the lives of at least 100 million slum dwellers by the year 2020 as I have shown, forced the international community to assign priority status to a specific geography of poverty that until now was neither captured in national statistics nor reflected in urban data. The urban slum target is recognition by the international community that in terms of livelihood and health, living conditions in urban slums around the west of the west. Target 11 is further warning that by ignoring the plight of slum dwellers, governments are inadvertently adopting development models that are neither sustainable nor acceptable. So we have about one billion slum dwellers at risk as I have shown. Slums are becoming the norm rather than exception in the poor cities of the world. The wet slums currently house an estimated one billion people, one out of every three urban dwellers. Slums are a physical manifestation of urban poverty and home to most of the wet's urban poor. These are human beings who do not benefit from the wealth and opportunities generated by the cities in which they live. So in sub-Saharan Africa, as I have said, 70% of urban residents live in slums. Many slum dwellers are unable to escape the material deprivation and disease that are normally associated with impoverished rural areas. Asia cities, if I could add, which host almost 60% of the wet slum populations are becoming sites of a severe environmental degradation and pollution, which are impacting recent economic gains. And despite progressive registration and improved governance structures in recent years, even Latin American cities remain the most unequal in the world today. So in the next two decades, more than 95% of the population grows in the worst poorest regions, we're your kind cities. Urban growth rates are particularly high in the least developed countries, averaging almost 5% per år. A third of the common west countries, for example, which I analyzed, between 2000 and 2005, urban growth rates between 3% and 6%, Africa is the fastest growing continent and has growth rates of about 4%. What does it mean if you have a growth rate of 4%? Basically, it means your population is going to double every 12 years or so. 12 to 15 years, other things being what the population will double. In my own home city of Darslam, where I'm coming from, the town is growing at 4% per annum, and 80% of the population is living in informal settlements. It means the population of Darslam, now around 4 million, will double in 15 years from today. So if you are not prepared with basic infrastructure, basically what are you doing if you are not cutting disaster? So the situation is out there, it's quite complex. So the shift of population implies that the major development challenges and the struggle to achieve the MDGs and targets must focus on cities of the developing world, where an increasingly large proportion of the world's poor will live. Now, ladies and gentlemen, I can tell you that it was difficult for me the 10 years I spent at the UN campaigning on this agenda. As Melinda Fonsundere, who is in the audience, it's a pleasure to see you, Melinda. As you know very well, I am trained as a rural economist. So it was hard for me now to transform myself and trust campaigning for urban poverty. But because of that background maybe, I had the humility to be able to say the truth that while we were focusing on rural development, which we cannot forget, people had voted with their feet and moved on to cities. A number of people in these slums, the shanties that I have shown, they have not necessarily abandoned agriculture as a profession, but agriculture has not saved them where they are. So one side of the people in these slums in Africa, they are actually environmental refugees. People have been thrown, prematurely thrown out of their livelihoods because they could not make a living on the farms. And when people cannot make a living in one place, we all know what will happen. Economic theory is very clear. People move not because they will be better off. People move because they expect to be better off. So it is the expectation function that moves people out of place A to place B. And this is the reality that was confronting us. So I would like to say that there had been a misdiagnosis therefore of the development problem. This is not to say that we should not focus on rural development. We must focus on rural development. One of the challenges facing Africa is what of course we would then call premature urbanization. Conflicts, that prevent the continent for example, have also done their bit in chasing people out of their current occupations into the cities. So the whole notion of survival strategies need to be supported by public policy to make life easier, but also to make life safe. We must fight poverty and not fight the poor and we have to know the difference. Many policies are harassing poor people. Poor people take care of themselves. There is some arrogance by some of us who feel that we sort out things for the poor. It is only under stress that the poor will not be able to make a living. But of course unable to make out a living in the rural areas, they then look for urban space. In this urban space they have not necessarily been finding security. So the global strategy. The global strategy is that we need national level strategies that are required for all governments to take local action to achieve global goals. The MDGs that are now under review were global goals. But without local action you cannot achieve them. So all this has got to be translated so that we work at local level. And long term sustainable urban planning strategies definitely something that must be worked on. Medium term proposed service land. When I was working at the UN, when we worked most of these models, I was not, I didn't know that I was going to imagine as a land minister in Tanzania. So now I have to work the talk. Medium term proposed service land. Is it in supply? Then we have short term slum upgrading. So you can see that slum upgrading is actually a short term intervention. Over what we need is an integrated strategy about adequate shelter, women's inheritance and ownership rights, global campaigns against arbitrary forced evictions, cities without slums programs, tenure property rental rights and you have not. Then we have the question of urban governance where we look at urban water and sanitation. And I know that you shall be hearing a lot about sanitation. I happen to be the chair of the United Nations water supply and sanitation collaborative council. And I'm very happy maybe I should also inform this audience that as you know originally sanitation was not part of the Millennium Declaration. It was added as part of the campaign and I had the pleasure to join Sir Richard Jolley with the founder of the water supply and sanitation collaborative council to fight the corridors of New York and Johannesburg and to inset the sanitation target. So some of the slide, some of the campaign you are hearing was instrument to convince people that if you didn't solve the sanitation problem you could not solve the health problem. And finally at Johannesburg in 2002 sanitation was added on the agenda. Then we have this some upgrading facility. It remains a challenge of investment because as you can imagine investing in housing is a resource intensive activity. Investing in urban infrastructure is a resource intensive activity. So at the moment I must say since the Stockholm 1972 conference which discussed housing and municipal finance the debate then dropped off the radar screen. So at the moment as I speak the word has no mechanism for municipal finance because the issue was discussed at the Stockholm conference which was called actually on the human environment although the human part seemed to have fallen off the radar screen and that's why we lost time. But the first United Nations conference of Stockholm 1972 was actually convened on the human environment. There were two working committees. One on the natural environment which was to prevail and one was on the built up environment. That is what became the habitat agenda but there was never any agreement and as a result this particular topic of local governance of municipal finance fell off the screen. So we felt that within that framework our campaign was therefore to also point out the lack of investment at local level. Cities, towns, secondary towns which are mushrooming all over the developing world for example in Africa. At the moment they are on their own if they want to get investment they have to negotiate with their treasury and that is not necessarily the priority of the national government sitting in the capital. So I would like to speak in Stockholm as I am doing and honoring Gordon Goodman who was definitely in Stockholm in 1972 that this is something that I am throwing to those of you who are in the research field that please revisit Stockholm 1972. Now against that background and Ambassador Scher if my time runs out just remind me let me quickly now try to take you to the business of the day in Tanzania so what is happening in Tanzania? I have told you the campaign at a global level and the goals are there and Sweden as one of the you know donor countries you have been doing you a bit but I would like to say that in Tanzania what we are doing is reducing the rate of rapid urbanization through agricultural development for an investors partnering with the small order farmers in a nucleus or outgrower farm arrangement when we have looked at it all when we have seen this rapid pace of chaotic urbanization most of it premature premature in the sense that urbanization must be followed by advances in agricultural technology otherwise you cannot feed the populations otherwise you cannot have the food and fire but you need to feed urban industries then clearly there is a need to reduce the pace of the influx of people from the countryside into the cities so this is the approach that we have taken we have taken and we need a regional approach because we cannot be anywhere so this program called the south agricultural growth corridor of Tanzania is one of the pilots that is now on the table and we hope that we should also be putting up other growth corridors why a growth corridor a growth corridor because we need transport finally you have to solve this maze these are the farmers on their own so the fundamental goal is to increase small order incomes and food security doing so requires investors who have the capacity to provide the inputs processing facilities power and transport needed to link small order to global and domestic markets so within this framework unless we sort out this maze we have also come to realize 50 years of independence that we have to organize ourselves better so this is would like local markets are there if you are here would you come here global logistics companies processing I remember one day when I was a student here I visited the Swedish banana company I don't know how many of you have visited that company actually Bayesian Stockholm that's why I was to learn that all the technology for the Chiquita and things is on the ships actually you know so from the farms within 24 hours they put the banana on the ships and it can remain there for 2 years nothing would happen because they have the technology so global logistics is also part of this equation so we are working on that model in Tanzania but even more important is the framework of cooperation we are and we remain a continent of farmers for some time to come since we feel that we can solve the urban challenge by approving rural incomes but also by achieving what we call balance in territorial development developing secondary towns everybody doesn't have to come to Nairobi or to Dar es Salaam or to Lagos Lagos is already a mega city in 20 years time Lagos will be the said largest city in the world so you can imagine the challenge that will come with that so how do you then develop our part of the we feel that we are welcoming investors why investors? because we need capital and we need technology on this land and at the moment this is in short supply so we would like to have the investor establishing a nucleus farm surrounded by outgrower around the farm so these small holders will be able now to have access to services land in terms of infrastructure and irrigation in terms of processing technology at the nucleus farm the estate model has already been discredited for those of you exposed to economics theory you know that this is the export Yankelev model bypasses everybody and nobody really gains anything this has not worked and in modern times given the democratic processes it is also a recipe for chaos as we have seen in Zimbabwe it is not sustainable so the estate model will not work but we feel that the nucleus model is the answer now pure trader processor model that one also has its limitations no demonstration effect, limited training, technical assistance limited understanding help with managing local climate no skinning in the game just a middleman so this is what was given within the context of the barrier report structural adjustment, liberalisation it has not worked, it has not pushed rural development in Africa now this model is on offer and I must say that I have the privilege when I went back to my country left the UN and the president gave me this job I was happy and I had to sort of take a position on how we are going to package this there is increasing voices particularly in the western countries and Sweden is one such that we are puzzling out land carelessly the investors have taken over the new colonisation of African lands could well be in some isolated pockets but I can assure this audience that we are seized with the matter but what we don't want is a purposeless sensation because as I have said we need to develop our rural areas as matters stand now Africa is a net food importing continent so without international trade Africa is not able to feed itself despite the lands so definitely we need capital on that land we need technology on that land so the question is not whether but how we do it and we are saying that we have to do it first and foremost for our own people so to take you back to Tanzania in doing that let's me recognise the audience of our ambassador Ambassador Mzela is also in the room this is why are we able to go to the south because we have a railway line this is built by the Chinese I think Mr President at the lunch we are discussing China and I said that China actually started engaging with Tanzania for quite some time I think when they opened up when they started opening up their country in the 60s and 70s then they built this railway line in the context of providing a trade route for Zambia so this is a famous Huru railway built by the Chinese it goes through a very difficult terrain but it is able to open up this corridor so that's why we are starting with this agricultural corridor the southern corridor and the idea here is to promote small hold agriculture but within the framework of the nuclear farms the people will come to invest now for me and here I am looking for support and one of my job is land use planning and as we speak now only 10% of Tanzania is surveyed and titled so we are in the process of putting up land use maps because in Tanzania before anyone can be given land a large investor can be given land in terms of the nuclear farm we must first of all reserve adequate land for the small holders so to assure everybody so we need elaborate land use plans for all the villages before the land can be given out it is an elaborate work two months ago I was actually in this country visiting the land material in Yevle because I know they exist here and I was trying to see whether we can take advantage of the recent GIS technology and survey and map the lands so that we know what is surplus and can be developed by those who are in a position to do so but also what must be preserved for our own people now on the final note let me now very quickly also talk about the heart of Africa this is like a Victoria a number of you have visited this is Kampala Nairobi is here but this is Kisumu this is Tanzania I happen to be a member of parliament for this part I was born near myself in Muleba district and when I decided to go home the people had the kindness to elect me as their parliamentarian so in that capacity but also given my position is that Lake Victoria is a lake under siege it is a very shallow lake I don't have like Tanganyika for those of you familiar with African map is here with six times more water than Lake Victoria but this is the second largest lake in the world I think after the Caspian Sea but it is a shallow lake the biggest threat to this lake is agriculture as the populations have increased people have started struggling to irrigate their farms and as they do that they do it without using the proper technology so they are mining the wetlands so this shallow lake depends on the wetlands to minimize the sedimentation of the lake so I would like to invite the Stockholm Environmental Institute and CES I would like also to recognize CES I am very sorry when I was writing this I was not aware that there was another partner and all the the research community to revisit the future of Lake Victoria because I must have the humility to say that a number of attempts have been made but I can speak that as a native of this area it is my duty also representing the people who elected me into office to say that it is a territory under siege from environmental pressure from population increases but also from rapid and chaotic urbanization around the lake so for some large growing cities Kampala Kisum The hem the original home of president Obama is not so far away from here so at least he is also part of Merinda and the other Americans in the room there is also some connection there but this lake this environment is a fragile ecosystem and in my view requires international attention it is the source of the Nile actually the Nile originates from the Tanzanian part of the lake called the Kagera River if you remember the Amini wall the wall was fought over this salient which Amini has adjarnext the river just zooms through the lake pushes to become the Nile so with this sedimentation the force the force of flowing water is being impaired that could come to affect the Nile which then goes all the way to North Africa but also towns like Manzahia Kisumu on the Kenyan side Kampala some of the other towns emerging they are now this lake is operating as an open sewer so sanitation systems need to be secured but for agriculture a challenge, simple interventions if the farmers can protect the wetlands we could well secure the future so my dear friends my paper will be circulated there is much more in my paper but this is me and my father and sister Wangari Masai the day she won the prize I went to see her at her house in Nairobi thank you very much for your kind attention