 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network As you all know our guy ed fang is a guy of many talents and we're gonna utilize those talents not just today But for the coming weeks because Ed has World Cup numbers and talk about those for today break down What goes into that what they're saying right now? But also of course to our usual preview of this week's college football games week number 11 coming up We'll break down those big games that and get us read on the World Cup numbers as well This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim saw this. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here As mentioned by dr. Ed fang you can find him on Twitter at the power rank and check out his work at the power rank Dot com and Ed it is a big time a year for you. We got college football We got World Cup we got college basketball all going on along with the thing called the NFL So yeah, is he times I assume how you doing today? I'm doing pretty well. Yeah, it's always a little bit of catch up getting some college basketball code going but it is going so that's nice and members of the site you have predictions the spreads and this is a good time of year to bet college basketball and World Cup is coming up and kind of haven't touched it yet, but I still have 10 days 11 days. Yeah, so But we'll talk about some of the some of the more general stuff Since it's a nice thing that country performance tends to persist over time So we'll use that a lot for this work up Yeah, and we'll talk about what your numbers saying just kind of get an initial read on that And we'll be talking more about World Cup as the year goes along, too It's just because if we've got Ed we might as well use the full extent of his powers We'll be doing that on the show throughout this fall So it's all week 11 first in college football Then we'll go through some World Cup numbers after that But first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast gave my first look at NFL week number 10 Based on what my numbers are saying yesterday here on the show We'll do a full breakdown tomorrow with a player prop preview on Friday as well get all those podcasts by Subscribing to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast and also you can get these podcasts over on the fan Dual YouTube page if you want a video version check us out over there Now is the perfect time to download fan dual America's number one sportsbook because right now new customers get a no sweat first bed up to $1,000 that's free beds back if your first bed doesn't win Trout features like same-game parlays play your way and bet on more than just the final score Wager on everything touchdowns the total yards to catches all in an app that's safe and secure And super easy to use so sign up today for your no sweat first bet Make every moment more this season with fan dual official sportsbook partner of the NFL must be 21 plus and president select states First online a real money wager only refund issued is non withdrawable free bet that expired 14 days Restrictions apply see terms that sportsbook dot fan dual comm gambling problem call 1-800 gambler or miss a fan dual comm slash RG in Arizona 1-800 next step or text next step to 533 42 In Connecticut 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org Such chat in Indiana 1-800 9 with it in Wyoming in Kansas 1-800-522-4700 in Kansas KS Gambling Health comm in Louisiana 1-877-770 stop in New York 1-877-8 hope and wire text open Why or in Tennessee call the red line at 1-888-997-89 So let's jump right in to the college football games here for a week number 11 to do a toxin world cup later on We'll start things off with LSU at Arkansas right now LSU a 3-point favorite total is 63 and a half and LSU Ed obviously got that huge win over Alabama big win there But they come back from that with a decently tough test here facing off with Arkansas as well So can LSU keep this run going and win again in a tough road spot? I Certainly think so. I think LSU has kind of been Underrated in some sense all year. We didn't really know what we were gonna get with Brian Kelly coming in and taking over this team And then it lose that opener to Florida State if you remember they got They had an extra point to tie the game at the very end and they got it blocked and lost in pretty dramatic fashion and Honestly right now. There are only other losses to Tennessee Which the score was pretty lopsided, but it was really a game where LSU kind of killed themselves in the first half They fumbled to kick off deep in their own territory give them 50 yard 58 our punt return and then fail to convert for fourth down. Sorry three for four downs in the first half So the game just got out of control The underlying metrics didn't suggest that LSU was a better team but it did suggest that it was better than the I believe the 40 to 13 score and You know it did take like a late touchdown late two-point conversion for them to beat Alabama in pretty dramatic fashion They did have a better success rate in that game overall. So my numbers actually a really good team Believe they are 10th and success rate adjusted for opponent on offense 14th on defense very strong team on both sides of the ball and You know Arkansas is a team that kind of struggled. I mean, I don't know. What else you can say when you lose It was a 14 and a half point favorite to Liberty at home If you weren't gonna reach seven and a half wins because of how tough the SEC West is Yeah, that you know, that's certainly one thing but to not be able to be Liberty at home is Is not a good thing there. They had a lot of questions on defense coming into the year They brought a lot of transfers to kind of fill in some gaps for a defense. That was pretty good last year They're hundred and third when I look at adjusted success rate You know my model tends to be aggressive. I think it's kind of capturing what we're seeing with LSU and I have them by five and a half. I like LSU minus three here. I think they win this game There's so much motivation here. They just there's really not gonna be a letdown I don't think because yeah, they have to win here and they beat Texas A&M and their SEC West champs Which is which would be a huge huge accomplishment first year for Brian Kelly. So I think they win. I don't see why they can't cover three and Maybe maybe it even gets away. Maybe it even gets away from Arkansas at home Do you feel like the Threat of a letdown is what's keeping the market kind of tepid here. It's minus one fourteen and minus three So it's not like a full minus three there But like it does seem like it's a little bit they're hesitant to fully buy in do you think the letdown argument is what's doing that I Don't know. I personally think it's kind of dumb. Yeah given all that they have to play for I mean, they're what seventh in the college football playoff. Yeah, so they're probably not making it with two losses, but and And there's you know preponderance of undefeated teams now, right? So it's so it's unlikely although one of them probably most likely is not going to be undefeated and we'll get to that in a sec, but I Don't know. I just I don't I don't see a letdown, but maybe Yeah, we'll see how that one goes down But Ed does like LSU minus three on the road against Arkansas Let's go out to the pack 12 now and talk about Washington at Oregon Oregon is a 13 and a half point favorite total of 72 and a half massive massive total here And Oregon has been playing really good football really no stumbles even since that Georgia game It's a big number though. Washington's not a bad team So are your numbers saying organ is good enough to cover a beat a big number Given what they've done since that Georgia game No, I cannot get to 13 and a half in this game. Oregon's been good. It's still I'm still kind of Wrapping my head around the reality that bow nix is a competent quarterback and and receiver. Let's not forget pass catcher as well Yeah, um So, yeah, no, I mean he's been great. He's on you know, he's he's up on these Heisman. He's up on these Heisman odds pretty high and uh I don't know. I mean it was interesting It was kind of interesting to go back to the UCLA game where Oregon won Did not have a better success rate than UCLA But one thing that ended up really changing that game was a surprise onside kick So they were able to recover one in the middle of the game They go up two touchdowns and it was it was kind of over from there So I think that's pretty interesting from a strategic point of view What the new coach Dan Lanning is doing up there Um on the other side of the ball like Washington. I mean, I mean this my number's still really like what they're doing And pass offense. I've talked about Michael Penex. How I've always really liked him as a quarterback They're very high when I look at passing success rate. I think both these teams are top five And You know, both of these teams are not as good on the defensive side of the ball At some point this season I had a bet on Washington part of the reason I think we're talking about Washington UCLA and and at that point their defensive numbers look really good Yeah, and They've kind of fallen off a cliff since then, you know, we expected Washington's defense to be good It was it was a unit that was pretty good last year. They've they've fallen off a cliff They're 64th when I look at adjusted success rate. That's not good, but but Oregon's worse. So they're they're 66 So, uh, yeah, I would I would not bet the under in this game It seems like they're going to go up and down the field A couple mistakes can kind of tip it one way the other I mean, I think Washington I would definitely lean towards Washington here. I mean, I think you know, almost two touchdowns is a lot to cover and Yeah, should be a good fun game Do you feel strong enough in the 13 and a half to actually bet that or is it more so a lean for you given? You're not getting the 14 there. Yeah, I haven't bet it yet. Yeah, if it went to 14, I think it'd be a no-brainer Yeah, um But but I haven't bet it yet. So we'll we'll we'll keep it in the lean category for now Okay, so we'll keep it on that one. It is 13 and a half right now over at vandal sports book So keep tabs on that one. Uh the It is minus 112 on the 13 and a half. So as of right now, I'm guessing it's probably not going to get to 14 But if it were to get to 14, you know, saturday morning, we see a lot of movement there Maybe that's spot to buy in before right now. Uh, just a lean on Washington plus 13 and a half Let's go now to that game you alluded to before we got tcu bringing their undefeated record on the road to texas 7 and a half point friend Spread in texas' favorite here total is 64 and a half and it seems like this is a spot where Unsurprisingly, there's deviation between the college football playoff committee and the betting markets where the college football playoff committee be grudgingly I think Buying the tcu putting them inside the top four this week betting markets. Obviously Not doing that yet relative to a very good texas team so Can tcu overcome the markets expectations and cover against texas or It's a spot where the market has the things this thing clearly pegged Yeah, I mean I have this at 7.8 points. So i'm pretty much right on where the market Lies I I don't I do think texas wins this game and you know, it's it was interesting to kind of catch up on them They've lost three games, but they've all been within one score I mean everyone remembers the single point I believe was a point that they they lost to alabama at home You know, this is a good team that is eighth when I look at adjusted success rate and offense 17th on on defense Quinn Euras is back been back for four games really struggled against oklahoma state But otherwise has been uh, pretty good bjohn robinson the running basket in almost six yards of carry um You know seems like sarke's got a pretty good football team going on You know nothing against tcu, but you know, they're they're just not uh, quite in the same ballpark and Yeah, you know, I mean they've been kind of relying on explosive plays Uh, especially against west virginia in a game, which they had worse success rate than their appointment even though they won You know it it it wasn't a close game Except it wasn't a close game by the final score because they won by 10 But it was within three for for much of the fourth quarter. So uh competitive contest and and you're gonna get those on the road in conference, but The numbers have a lot more respect for texas. I think the market's right on the ball on this I think we'll see tcu go down for the first time and and follow in those college football playoff rankings I do find it very interesting that that fandals only book. I see right now at seven and a half. Most are at seven still like, um You can find uh, tcu plus seven at minus 105 So like you could buy that potentially and like but fandal has seven and a half it seems like they're trying to get action on tcu based on that and I find that very interesting that the that we're seeing this this uh, kind of reaction and we're seeing I would assume based on that a lack of reaction from the betting public to what the the committee said, which is appropriate I'm just kind of surprised that's been the case Yeah, it is interesting. You're not getting any tcu plus seven and a half for me. Um, so but hey, you know, you want to stick your neck out there Yeah, um, honestly another game that they're sticking their neck out there is, uh Pit they have pit at as a three and a half point favorite the rest of the market's at four and a half my number is at seven plus they play they're at, uh Virginia and virginia is a really interesting team because they were this massive over team with with uh, bernand armstrong The quarterback last year. I hope i'm not butchering. I think i might have gotten his name wrong anyways the quarterback And and they they've been they've been very different this year. Just just not the same team with with new coach uh, tony ellie and and um Yeah, I mean my number's really like pit minus three and a half there on the road Uh, I've talked about not being a really big fan of pit and i'm not it's just the opponent this week Um, so that's another that's another one where fan duals off. Maybe they want the action pit Yeah, minus three and a half. I really don't know obviously not a key number there between three and a half four and a half But another interesting game where we're fandals off off market and a very liquid market a point is still a lot Even if it's not a key number And it is it was armstrong both last year and this year. So uh, brennan, uh, so I think yeah sweet. I got that right Yes, no, you got it. You're good. Um, but yeah, I think that that one is also pretty interesting Again in a market like this being a point off Regardless of the key number is interesting and the point the half point here Given seven is a key number for tc. Texas also very interesting as well. Okay Where else is seeing value for week number 11 right now ed? Yeah, this was definitely where I was going to talk about that pit virginia game. So uh Jump the gun a little bit there. Um, I also did note, uh Like my numbers do like the over in the the texas tc tcu game. I think the market's at 64 and a half right now My number is almost at 68 Um You know tcu's defense is probably Is good, but probably the worst unit on the field and uh, there there should be a lot of points in in this one So, um, that's definitely another place that I potentially I see value Yeah, the pit one is a three and a half right now a fan dual sports book as you mentioned It is four and a half a lot of other places. Let me check to see Uh, where else you can get that? Um, yeah, it's it's three and a half at fan dual There is a there are some fours out there. So there's been some Moving on to a four, but uh, it's the lone three and a half I see so if you want to bet pit a fan dual is the place to do so That is minus 110 right now on the three and a half As you mentioned the total for the tcu texas game 64 and a half your numbers have that one up at 68 Okay, let's shift now and talk about the world cup because it is 10 11 days away from the first game here and We talked about your your world soccer numbers on the show before but that was A long time ago And we've had, you know, it's a football season. So different different listenership right now So I want to go through kind of the process you go through and setting things up for this For a world cup Where are you adding that process to get things ready for when the actual games kick off in 10 or 11 days? My world soccer rankings are are actually the most visited page on my site, which I still kind of find weird It picked up some good search engine juice and and yeah, but I mean, I mean the numbers are good. I think they're accurate So what I found in world soccer is that you look at a pretty large window of games I take about a five-year window of games and a lot of the research shows that Play for the national team tends to be pretty stationary over time um Sometimes you get variations so if I actually do run some numbers that look at You know over a decade worth of games and results and brazils at the top no matter how you do it and they should be the favorite and they are the betting favorite and I think you'd find it hard to find someone that would disagree with that but You know more recently like this belgium team is second in my world rankings and This is the golden generation for belgium Players like kevin de brunas is quite simply the best playmaking Player in the world right now a place for mancity Has been really good. Uh, their second, you know They're not second when you look at the betting markets I think partially is because they have a pretty old back line also Lukaku their their striker has not been playing for enter He hasn't been playing for his club. I mean, this is a guy that was absolutely brilliant last summer when they played in euros so It's a team that does have a lot of talent there. They they have performed They might not be quite up to that standard given some of the player changes and So, yeah, so I just look at game results. I just restrict the schedule, which is hugely important in World soccer even in europe where, you know, you can get a qualifying game against san marino Who is quite simply terrible? There's there's a there's a huge range of outcomes. This is not the nfl. You really do have to just reschedule And I just restrict the schedule. I get the rankings on the site at some point. I will have Win probabilities as well for the world cup brazil will be at the top And uh, it will it will go on down from there. You know, it's interesting I mean francis third can't can't disagree with that. They are always uber talented Are they going to show up like they did in 2018 and win at all? Right, uh, are they going are they going to bow out in the group stage like they have Sometimes or actually like they did the last time they won the world cup and then went to the world cup. Yeah, that might happen, too Um, the Netherlands is fourth. I think it's a little bit high for this team. Uh, the dutch are always, uh, a nation that plays The game the way it should be played But just don't really see the offensive attacking talent on that team to kind of justify that or to be the fourth And the buddy betting markets are would agree with that as well Uh, spain is fifth super talented team. I actually think this team is very underrated um kind of in the general public And, uh, the betting markets do like them um Six is italy they didn't make it Uh, portugal seventh probably a little overrated. Uh, still a very good soccer playing nation But we're not all those old But they do they do have some significant young players So anyways, uh, I could continue to go on but it's kind of a start to the resources. Um, you know, using analytics to to kind of have One different way of looking at these teams in the world cup I also think that there's going to be a ton of other ways. Obviously the betting markets are one Um, there's another way in which you can look at salaries of the players on the teams Um, which gives you you know, it's in soccer like salaries and performance are very tightly correlated Yeah, I know. I'd actually really love to see the plot of soccer Like when winning percentage versus salary and Soccer versus baseball because baseball it's all over the place. Right And I don't really know what that means, but um But yeah, anyways, there's a different way of looking at these clubs is you know, how much they get paid on their clubs And um, oh, yeah, we should talk about the us, right? Sure. Let's do it 121. Are you biting it? Oh heck no So when you're a soccer snob luck myself like you you believe that, you know, there's a right way to play Which is the played by western european nations in brazil and To a lesser extent argentina. I don't think argentina is particularly good. Oh argentina We should talk about a team that I think the markets have wrong. Yeah, argentina is the second favorite to win this world cup I think that's absolutely wrong. I think they're I think they're overrated because they beat brazil in the copa america final last summer Which was a complete fluke in which to do brazil completely dominated the game and and managed to lose one nothing All the headlines were that messy fondly wins a trophy and that's great. I'm really it's great that messy wine trophy You know best player of his generation. I mean, I guess there's arguments about that but um But this argentina team is not should not have the second highest odds to to win the world cup Yeah, they have right now That is second behind just brazil plus 550 for argentina. So we're not we're not buying that it sounds what you're saying I personally am not buying it. My numbers would not buy it as well um And you know, unless he's not really near his prime by any stretch I mean, he's not like he he did not carry argentina to that win I actually thought like he wasn't particularly good in that game um He got all the accolades of right rightfully. So it was a lifetime achievement award but He wasn't good in that game. Yeah, so I would strongly disagree with argentina as the second second favorite right now So we can't bet the us 120 to 1 to win. They're plus 550 to get out of their group Obviously, I'm guessing you have not run group numbers yet because that's further down the line um, we got england What's that plus 550 uh against england is minus 250 wales plus 550. I ran is 19 to 1 550 Yeah That's to win the group. Sorry to win the group. Oh to win the group. Sorry. I mean, yeah, I said that to win the group plus 550 right So united states should be better than wales the numbers say they are I think talent wise they are There's always the wild card um of garith bale The the player for wales who's been one of the you know, one of the pyramid players in the world over the past decade except he's old And you know, he's like a player that really relied on his athleticism so I mean, they should I mean, honestly if they if they beat wales in that opening game, they're they're probably through Yeah, um, they should be at a rand and then whatever happens against england happens against england Who we're not we're not as good as england as much as it pains me to say um So Yeah, I mean, I think like, you know, I mean a lot of that relies on that first game against wales I think we probably do get out of this group and You know, I think this is a talented team, but I do have my doubts whether they can put it together I think partially part of that is because they just played so terribly in the the last two friendlies About a month ago before the world cup but It was an awkward situation in which They decided to play these friendlies in europe So they didn't have to fly all their players back home to the united states And so you had these like really uninteresting games where there was no one and it was like a covet situation right there was no fans in the stadium And Yeah, they look terrible. Yeah, they're not terrible. Yeah, they actually have a lot of really good players But But yeah, I mean don't don't bet them plus 120 to win the world cup. They're not gonna win the world cup I wasn't planning on it. I mean if they get to the if they get to the quarter finals Yeah, that would be awesome. Yeah So they're minus 105 to get out of group B Yeah, that's not right. That seems about right. Yeah, wales is plus 105 So it almost exactly mirrors what you said where it's kind of just those two fighting for that second slot And they're pretty evenly matched for the usa being a bit better and coming down to that that initial match So usa minus 105 to get out of that group at vandal sports book right now I wanted to circle back before we wrap up to belgium because you mentioned that your numbers like them Concerned about lukaku not playing 23 to 1 though seems somewhat forgiving for a team that has some concerns But does grid out really well based on your numbers So is that long enough where again? This is not based on your numbers because you're not run them yet But would you consider biting on belgium at 23 to 1? Given that may be a lot of flexibility to count for the negatives you discussed That's a great question. I would I would need to dig a little bit more into the roster My numbers are certainly going to say there's like massive massive value Yeah on belgium at that price, but you know I think there's reasons to think that the Yeah, that that they're not going to do as well So I'm going to take a rain check on that question. I'll give back to you on that next week Well, there's more time to talk this so we're all good. Yeah Um, but but I do want to mention a dark horse So I had ryanel handlin of espn on my podcast this week. He's a soccer writer He just wrote a book called net gains, which is fantastic. It's about soccer. It's about analytics If you like either of those, I think you will really enjoy the book But he gave me a dark dark horse in in denmark Uh, a very talented team, uh, one that's completely flying under the radar In terms of the public at least their 10th when I look at my numbers This is a team that got I think all the way to the semifinals of euro last year um Yeah, just the team that is is really good could sneak up on people and um Yeah, that that's a team that I would I like them a little bit more than than saying belgium is going to be your favorite Just given the personnel situation with this belgium team Yeah, uh, denmark right now at fandal is 24 to 1 to win it all So, uh, the dark horse there could be kind of intriguing right in the belgium zone So, uh, we'll have to check back in next week to see what your preference is there But as I said more world cup discussion coming up here on the show because if we've got ed We got to take advantage of all of this knowledge. Uh, once again, uh, that is all that we have here for today But fun to to start talking about the world cup with you yet I think that this is gonna be a good little journey. Maybe I'll get some uh, some soccer bets down for the first time in my life Um, I believe I don't think I've ever actually bet it So if you can talk me into it, maybe we'll have some fun with that Yeah, that sounds really good. I'm I'm not sure I've made a soccer bet since the last world cup So I'm right there with you. Um with these games with the win-loss tie probabilities or the games it is, uh You know, those markets are going to be pretty sharp Yeah, I think it's going to be important to kind of I mean certainly over the next 11 days I'm going to be looking elsewhere to find value um But it's also important with those markets that you're keeping you are like self calculating hold Because it's a lot easier to hide the hold in a market where there are three offerings available three outcomes available Then it is with a minus 110 each side for, you know, winter loser in an NFL market So I think that's the other thing to like flag here is with those um With the draw being in there make sure you are being extra vigilant about the hold you're paying Because you can get It can get bad real fast if you're not paying attention to those markets in that way Yeah, yeah, for sure. I mean, I mean, yeah, and definitely like calculate your hold, right? Yeah always. Oh, you should always You should always do that for sure. But I think especially here when it's A Market maybe not all of us are betting into always just kind of keep sure you're make sure you're being vigilant on that Because it can be it can get real nasty real fast if you're not paying attention Well, that is dr. Ed Feng you can find his work over the power rank calm He alluded to those those world soccer ranks you can find those the power rank calm You can find his college basketball stuff. He mentioned college football NFL Everything all in the same place at the power rank calm ed you mentioned your podcast Work people find that and anything else going to plug for this week Yeah, the the podcast is the football analytics show. Uh, we still stuck with football Although not the the usual american football this week Football analytics show Yeah, exactly So I talked with ryan O'Hanlon who who was fantastic He's a great writer. The book is really awesome. Talk to him about the book talk to him about the world cup and It will be up on wednesday night. Okay. I don't know if it's gonna be up by the time exactly this podcast is Dropped but uh, yeah, check that out and then yeah, we'll be doing a lot of football Both american and world Over the next couple weeks at my email newsletter. So check that out at the power rank calm All right, don't forget to follow ed on twitter as well at the power rank I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s We are back once again tomorrow breaking down NFL week number 10 with ryan Williams will talk to all of you then this has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network