 All right very good morning and for any England supporters. I hope you're waking up hangover free So well done very much so to to the boys last night beating Germany for the first time in a major championship since 1966 and it didn't even need penalties and Hason to say that we all remember what happened back in 1966 But trying to rein in the expectations at the moment and not looking at the projected path to the to the final too much yet But yeah amazing to see that and certainly I think exactly what the nation has needed After what's been a very challenging year or so so onwards and upwards there and Yeah, let's get straight into it and talk about what's going on in markets and this morning and a few things for me to get you up to speed on and Generally things still relatively quiet a lot of continuation of relative trends That meaning that equity markets continue to push to highs again last night So if we were looking at the close then as that was up about a third of 1% seeing some Moderate outperformance again against the major other indices like the S&P and Dow which were basically unchanged nasdaq though continuing to kind of lead to charge and otherwise Obviously from this afternoon from a US data perspective things start to pick up a little bit and obviously the week ends with a bit Of a crescendo in the release of the non-farm payroll reports So we've got the lights of ADP Chicago PMI this afternoon You've got the eurozone HICP numbers as well coming out this morning at 10 a.m It's a quite a few things now to get our teeth into and what otherwise has been a relatively Slow start to the week also some updates overnight in Asia and some data So just quickly cover that before I really go into the charts a bit more detail What we're looking at this morning and kicking things off then we had Chinese manufacturing and non manufacturing PMIs overnight So these were the state led ones from the National Bureau of Statistics The manufacturing figure came in at 50 spot 9 above the expected 50 spot 8 So basically in line on the non manufacturing side 53.5 a touch softer than expected 55.3 Supply chain problems are weighing on manufacturing with the recent computer chip coal and power supply shortages hitting output in some industries Is what the NBS said The production subindex a new order subindex for vehicle manufacturing has now as such contracted for two straight consecutive months The bright spot however in that data was the easing in price pressures And this has been a big focal point of course in China where we've had a very large Divergence between PPI and and consumer led inflation as both input and output prices of manufacturers Felt significantly suggesting that the government's measures to increase supply of commodities To steady prices is slowly working. Remember they gave that signal two weeks ago or so where they were gonna Unlock some of their strategic reserves of certain types of metals in particular industrial metals in order to ease some of those price pressures Which seemingly is having some effect at this point So overall I wouldn't really look to the Chinese data for too much guidance as towards the European session or the US Session going forward just more of a matter of fact that that came out overnight As far as the open this morning things are relatively quiet as we look kind of forward But there's a couple of charts to have a look at for one I was just having a look technically in the stock indices at the S&P and the DAX this morning This is the S&P 500 and this is looking on a 60-minute candlestick chart I'm just looking at this trend channel moving on the way up that we've had really over the course of the last several sessions And we're just coming up to a bit of a pullback from the overnight highs You can see we really peaked Yesterday afternoon don't forget yesterday afternoon, of course shortly after we saw the top That would came after consumer confidence in the US obviously jumped to its highest level in nearly one and a half years Came out considerably stronger than expected at 127.3 against 119 So continued labor market optimism was noted ahead of the reopening of the economy offsetting any concerns around high inflation at this point in time Came back up towards the highs in the overnight age of pack session And we've just drifted as Europe has come in don't forget European players were in the marketplace to have seen yesterday's all-time highs So seeing a bit of profit-taking, you know, it is the last trading day of the month the quarter Semi-annually so yeah, I don't see too much surprise here for bit of a pullback Technically just looking where we're at at the moment. It is fairly interesting You've got the pivot here on the daily pivot levels, which clones coincides But the bottom end of this trend line on the trend channel and also horizontally has been an area of previous resistance to the All-time higher back on the 28th, which is also acted as support to a degree as well At the beginning of the week. So quite interesting technical area here a breakdown of that Perhaps we could trade a little heavy or is this just enough of that? kind of profit-taking move and now that provides a bit of a flaw given the Triple kind of technical signals there, and then we just continue to respect this upward channel Would be something I'd be keeping an eye on In a similar fashion slightly different technical setup But just keeping an eye on downside levels in European indices This is the DAX future and again looking on a 60-minute candlestick and the reason I'm looking at that is if we go back to The decline that we saw this was the bullard inspired kind of sell-off that we had back on the 18th Posted the hawkish tilt from the Fed, which calls that gap down in the DAX future. You can see here in the center Going back then to some of the price action. We've had quite a nice inflection point here from 15 6 53 in the DAX future and that's just about where we're training at the moment. You can see that previous High on the 23rd and the 28th and support area then on Monday and Tuesday of this week So just keeping an eye on that at the moment again this any breakdown here You've got the pivot just below but then range wise not a great deal of support of more clarity until we get much lower Down at 15 5 15 so quite important areas here where as per global indices You know I've been looking at them the correlated moves across all of them in order to gauge Then timings in the mentums if there are any tests and breach of these downside levels Otherwise gold was another one I just quickly wanted to comment on because gold I think I saw a stat this morning It's on for one of its worst monthly performances that we've had in in multiple years and obviously a key component of that was The hawkish surprise that we had from the FMC and although the kind of centrist and the people that really matter like Powell and Williams continue to hold the line in terms of the rhetoric. There's obviously been an increasing chorus of hawkish speak from federal officials Granted they have been for more hawkish minded members, but the to rate hike dot plot surprise that we had The more sticky inflation and kind of comments and obviously that has Lifted the green back of late. It's also helped the olds Remain a little bit more elevated in the wake of that and gold has really suffered and so Quite key here. I've had marked up for a long time this kind of colored area here at around 1762 That's where the market found a bit of a turn going back into late November of last year Bounced very aggressively off it in February before the breakthrough and then it acted as well as a nice area For price to react off going through April of this year bounced again off it in June and yesterday We broke through that area and we're trading just below on the bottom side of it at the moment And you can see here You've got that April low and know the the peak of price action in March April So for me here around this 55 to 62 areas a key zone for gold Which if it continues to trade heavy then as you can see technically There's not a lot here to step in the way to see gold prices again roll over and perhaps move down more medium term to 1717 type area, which would be obviously another fairly deep move of another 25 30 bucks on the current price from where we're trading at the moment So definitely keen to see on the dailies where we finish and obviously things like non-farm payrolls on Friday It's going to be quite a key catalyst determining dollar fluctuation Which I'll be looking at to determine the the kind of catalyst and lead off of potential gold movement All right, let's run through some of the other news stories then and get you up speed on a few different things firstly oil prices Yeah, a lot of people are waiting now the OPEC meeting But just to cover off one of the first things last night We had the API crude or inventories and of course this comes ahead of the DOE's this afternoon regular time 330 p.m. London time release didn't really see too much of an initial reaction to this But it did seem prices generally slowly climb in Asia pack trade and WTO at European Open is trading up 39 cents at 73 36 last And the reason they're here because the API number came in and marked its sixth weekly drawdown in a row and much more sizable than market expectations, so a drawdown of 8.153 million against expectations of 4.17 on the flip side though gasoline was pretty bearish sizeable build against expectation of a draw cushing a draw of 1.318 Million all in all though probably the fairly tame response to that is because everyone's really awaiting OPEC, of course and OPEC and its allies as You can see here from the title is article on Bloomberg have delayed their preliminary talks Between ministers by one day to allow countries more time to resolve their differences ahead of what's being seen There's quite a crucial meeting for the cartel to make and this is all according to two delegates So the JMMC the joint ministerial monitoring committee which was due to meet today that meeting at least at this point in time It's gonna be taking place on Thursday now Russia and this is quite key Russia who faces is less budgetary pressure to sustain higher prices They I think have come as no surprise a kind of more advocates of wanting to pump more So you get a bit further loosening of this supply-packed agreement according to people familiar with their oil policy whereas Saudi Arabia's position is basically they're not aligned with Moscow and so This isn't the first time this has happened So it doesn't come as too much of a surprise to be honest because in December a similar split between Readd and Moscow caused a group to delay talks by two days So again, it could roll over and until the end of the week Ultimately they're even back then they found a compromise agreeing on a modest production increase My belief is that Saudi cannot do this whole OPEC plus agreement without the Russians They're gonna have to make a concession to keep the Russians happy So I think the Russians get a little bit more. This is just purely tactical. They'll cause a lot of headache They'll disagree disagree disagree until they extract that concession out of Saudi pump another few hundred thousand Thank you very much. We move on the supply pack remains in place the amount of New supply coming to market doesn't shock the market. It's not enough to really Impede then prices remaining generally where they are at the moment as demand continues to outweigh Any new supply coming to the market in my opinion? All right, other things to be Just mindful of Overnight in Asia There's been continuation of further lockdown measures implemented in Australia The Aussie overall pretty flat overnight not really a great deal to talk about but just Continue update on this because Australian officials have extended the lockdown and social distancing Measures to more of the country that including large popular cities like Sydney, Perth, Darwin, Brisbane, so on I'll swear some positive vaccine news Actually and which is good good obviously on a on a humanitarian level and obviously It's good if you own Moderna shares because they hit all time high yesterday following some of the news And so just running you through this so first off you had Russia's spandex 5 vaccine is around 90% effective against the highly contagious Delta variant Moderna said its vaccines produce protective antibodies against the Delta variant and Johnson and Johnson vaccine is also reported robust immune response To all of the current variants at this point in time. So these are very welcome signs given the fact that obviously Vaccines remaining effective as the mutations continue to unfold in the period ahead It's going to be critical in terms of containing COVID and helping the global economy to continue to recover at this point in time So This is more I would say expected. It's more continuity. The vaccines have always been Very rigorously tested in order to make sure they are still effective particularly with new more transmissible and Immune evasive type mutations that are that are coming and as long as they are which is expected to be the case because that has remained that way So far then we're all good to continue to have this fairly fixed more optimistic view of an economic recovery at this point in time Another thing I wanted to mention was this we had some comments overnight from a Fed member who is a voting member called feds waller And the Reuters headline says a 2022 rate hike is possible once NBS tape of first I guess this is just a word of warning really because the market hasn't really reacted to those comments the main point I wanted to make was For me, this is a really misleading headline. I mean you read the headline you think what rate hike possible in 2022 now There are obviously some officials going for that but when you hear it term like that you can't help but feel that this is quite a hawkish comment Waller tends to sit fairly centrist Maybe marginally leaning on the hawkish side. So it's a pretty punchy comment But you then actually read his speech and this is what he actually said He actually said the unemployment rate would have to drop fairly substantially or inflation Would have to really continue at a very high rate before you take seriously any rate hike in 2022 So that's a lot more measured than what this headline would suggest so it just want people to be aware of News agencies are in the business. Yes of reporting news But obviously the more clicks that they can generate well, the better it is for them their activity They're kind of KPIs and you know, they're their subscription rates So it's just got to be a little bit more intelligent and question these things from time to time Well, I did suggest that there is a lot to decide regarding potential taper And there was a wide range of views on timing pace and sequence Well, he is in favor of tapering NBS over treasuries and would like to see tapering before hiking rates Again, none of that is surprising. I think the general consensus is NBS before treasuries and definitely tapering before rates So yeah, all in all, I think it's pretty understandable why the market hasn't reacted to this But just wanted to go over that terms of the calendar for today. Yeah, this morning is pretty quiet. We've had The latest UK GDP figures come out. I'm just gonna bring those to you now. Just update my news feed So they came in quarter and quarter minus 1.6 the year one year for Q1 UK GDP minus 6.1 Percent that is zero surprise. This is very backward-looking outdated data nowadays. And so zero reaction in markets as you would anticipate Very much so looking forward to now the Q2 GDP numbers coming out in the near future Otherwise this morning is pretty quiet overall You've got the German unemployment rate and change coming just ahead of 9 a.m. at 855 eurozone HICP flash You and your reading expected at 1.9 percent against previous 2 percent range 1.8 to 2.1 And then going into the afternoon, it certainly gets a bit more interesting then where you've got things like US ADP national employment often seen as the precursor to payrolls headline figure expected to moderate slightly back to 600 from the near million last time out and in the Chicago PMI Set to do the same for the month of June to fall down to 70 Which is still a very robust number from the elevated 75.2 that we saw in May pending home sale or pending home index sales change coming out at 3 as well Then you've got the DOEs at 330 Speaker wise Bank of England's Haldane. You can pretty much write off now He is now Outgoing pretty much last days. So what he says really doesn't matter So if he does come out with something hawkish could well just be a final departing gift from him being Outlying hawk on the board to just say Sionara to the MPC So I don't think the market will take anything. He says with any type of impact for underlying prices And if that's Bostick who is a voter is speaking later on at 1 p.m. And that is it So I'm gonna let you guys get on with the day And if you have any questions at all feel free to leave a comment on the video if you watch on YouTube Or otherwise, I'll see you guys in the amplifier live community. Thanks very much