 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We have got a fantastic week of football ahead of us not just in the NFL with the Thanksgiving Slay coming up But also in college football the game coming up on a Saturday, Michigan versus Ohio State We're gonna break it all down in a single show for today We're talking to Dr. Ed Fang about both college football week 13 and NFL week 12 to get you ready For which should be a stellar week on the grid iron This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research Joined here as I have every Wednesday by dr. Ed Feng you can find his work at the power egg comm and check them out on Twitter at the power Egg Ed Thriller week of football coming up. How you doing today? I'm doing fantastic. I'm a little bum that I think I'm gonna be in a car for the first quarter of Ohio State At Michigan for some reason some youth soccer thought it was appropriate to schedule a game at 11 a.m On Saturday morning I kind of presumed that no games would be scheduled at all because of the holiday weekend, but I was wrong And that's in Ann Arbor now, which makes it even a bigger. So no, it's it's close to Ann Arbor It's not actually in Ann Arbor. So There should be no traffic coming back to to get into you know, my couch and settle in for the game But But yeah, should be a good one. Would you consider something your son 10 bucks to fake an illness? Oh No, he wants to play that's good Good for him for having credibility and having integrity. I don't but good for him So I'm happy for him, but gonna be a great weekend We got that game coming up some pretty good NFL games to honestly It was hard to whittle down the rundown because like could have three or four games in there talk about the NFL We're gonna talk about college football first breakdown, Michigan, Ohio State We're also I'm talking about a pretty big game for Florida State trying to remain undefeated and we'll get into the NFL and other bets Ed likes for this week all here in just one second But first you want some thoughts on the thanksgiving slate in the NFL I had one bet in that in the first look show, which was up on Tuesday That's up on the covering the spread podcast feed also Tom Vecchio breaking down player props for all three games That'll be in the covering the spread podcast feed on Wednesday I'm not sure if it's up right now when you're listening, but should be up pretty soon So find that in the covering the spread podcast so you can find on fan dual TV plus as well All right here in the same feed if you want to play some TFS and Thanksgiving We broke that down on the heat check fantasy podcast Which you can find in the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed on the family YouTube page and over on fan dual TV plus as well Score early this NFL season with fan dual America's number one sportsbook right now new customers get $150 and bonus bets with any winning $5 moneyline bet That's a hundred and fifty bucks if your team wins if you've been thinking about joining fan dual There is no better time to get in on the action. The app is so easy to use There is a wide range of betting options including spreads player props totals and more So visit faddle and kick off the NFL season faddle official partner of the NFL must be 21 plus and president select states Fan dual is offering online sports waging in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas star casino LLC first online real money wager only $5 pregame moneyline wager required $10 first deposit required bonus issued is now with trouble bonus bets that expire seven days after a seat See terms at sportsbook.fandual.com gambling problem call 1-800 gambler or visit fandual.com slash rg in Colorado, Iowa Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee and Virginia call 1-800 next step Or text next step to 5334 to an Arizona 188-789-7777 Or visit easy PG.org slash chat in Connecticut 1-800-9 with an Indiana 1-800-522-4700 visit chaos gambling health commie, Kansas 1-800-777-770 stop in Louisiana visit MD gambling health at Oregon, Maryland 1-800 gambler.net in West Virginia 1-800-522-4700 in Wyoming hope is here visit gambling help line ma.org or clay hundred three two seven fifty-fifty for 24-7 support of Massachusetts or call 1-800-777 open Y or text open Y in New York Let's get things off here by talking about the game It is Ohio State at Michigan where right now Michigan is a three and a half point favorite at fandals sportsbook And the total in this game is at 45 and a half now You've been talking about this game for a while the show talking about where your numbers would have this game if already played at that moment and It's finally here. So what do your numbers say about Ohio State at Michigan right now? This is really a story about whether you want to look at season long type Metrics versus whether you want to have a model that just a little more aggressively for what's happened recently When you look at the season long numbers, Michigan's been the better team this year I take, you know, for example, you know, I take margin of victory I take things like success rate adjust for strength to schedule put them together in the ways that I think is appropriate You know in terms of the waiting success rate means more than just margin of victory in games So so when you do that Michigan comes out ahead over the course of the season You know by the data based on the current season I have Michigan about three points better than Ohio State that would make them about five and a half point favorite in this game at home The problem is what I found the better way to do it in college football is to actually adjust to more recent More recent games. So my model tends to just Basically adjust every week Depending on what happened in the results and I think that matters for Ohio State They were awful at running the ball earlier in the season After the Penn State game, they were in the hundreds somewhere when I look at Russian concess rate adjusted for opponent After that Trevion Henderson came back. He is a Heisman caliber running back a talent Someone that we knew was going to be good coming into the season Ohio State's been much better run the ball 48% success rate since then which is significantly better than where they were and You know, they've gone from you know in the hundreds to 64th and in rushing Success rate adjusted for opponent and I don't actually think that 64th is indicative of how good the rush offenses right now they've been really good against some decent competition and You know, this this is basically we all know what they can do throwing the ball And I think their offense is good But it's it's even better now Given that they've had Henderson back given what they've done in the last four weeks since he's come back I have The model of that reacts more aggressively Actually, Ohio State is slightly ahead of Michigan. It's kind of a essentially a push and You know, my my model says Michigan by a point and a half at home So I actually do think there is a little bit of value on how to say plus three and a half. I Not exactly where I thought I would land on this game about a month ago But things change in college football and I think there's a really good reason why things have changed For this Ohio State team. They're they're just running the ball better. They They have that in their arsenal where where the run game was just awful earlier in the season Yeah, right now the plus three and a half at Fandals sportsbook is minus 112 Is that enough where you would take Ohio State here at do you think that? You believe in that aggressive model enough to pull the trigger because if it's a blended model between the two We kind of use wisdom of the crowds within yourself three and a half is basically spot-on But you've tested the aggressive model. It is tested better. So is that enough three and a half for you? Well, I mean, I think everyone needs to make that decision for themselves personally. I'm the skin fan I'm hoping that they're gonna win So I have that Ohio State money line because I think there's value there I'm more than happy to hedge emotionally hedge in these types of games when I think there's value and so that's what I personally did So you get the emotional hedge you get value based on your model But you're not kind of got any people where they want to go. So if you think that You want action on this game and you want good value Ohio State does sound to be that at plus three and a half minus 112 As I had mentioned it does like the money line as well at plus 134. I was watching the game last weekend and like Didn't McCarthy do seem a little bit off to you like is he a hundred percent right now? Because it seems like it wasn't the full McCarthy as we've seen like earlier this year and a times last year Right, I mean, I think he's got a little bit of a leg injury Obviously, he can play and he is going to be 100% available against Ohio State undoubtedly I Think you know, I think he had a peak in that Michigan State game where he was absolutely brilliant He threw a ton of passes against Purdue and actually wasn't great in that game wasn't particularly great last week Is it the injury or is it just you know? Typical ups and downs of a college football quarterback. I don't really know. I expect him to be pretty good on Saturday I expect I'm a pretty good game And we'll see that we'll see where that leads them did help your under on JJ McCarthy 230 and a half no sweat there as he was at 141 so pretty easy win for you with that one So Ed is on Ohio State here for the game on Saturday Let's talk about another key game coming up this week That is Florida State at Florida and right now at six and a half point spread favoring Florida State The total in this game is 49 and a half now Florida State already locked in to play Louisville in the ACC Championship next week But they got to win that they want to make the college football playoff and they need to win probably in like decently convincing fashion as well So facing Florida here Florida has had a pretty rough year so far Ed But can they keep things close enough here to cover at home? Yeah, we'll see Florida State is Duking it out with Washington to see which team is the bigger fraud as an undefeated they're both outside of my top 10 and Yeah, I mean look I don't really know what to think at all about this game because of the quarterback situation Jordan Travis is out for Florida State Tate Rotemakers is gonna be their quarterback Grand Mertz for Florida has been really good. He's out Max Brown is Gonna be their quarterback. So what do you make of two backup quarterbacks that had almost no numbers? I don't know They're both three stars So I feel like you're kind of guessing here. I mean my numbers pure numbers wise I make this Florida State by about four a little bit of value on Florida I'm not sure that there's any value in this but if I wanted to have some fun with this game I would definitely bet Florida Money line Kind of root for the for the chaos scenario. So yeah, you know, I mean Florida State like they really have dropped Right. I mean, I think they kind of reached a peak maybe weak one against LSU and I think they've been good since then but Hasn't really been particularly impressive shouldn't have beaten Clemson and The defense is actually pretty good. They they're fourth in my success rate adjusted for opponent The offense not so good. Now. They don't have Jordan Travis. So I honestly don't know what to make of the side But if I were better, I would just have some fun with some Florida money line I mean, it's it's back a quarterbacks both teams at least and if you're showing a value on the Florida side a plus 198 like that's not a bad route to bet this and again, it is It's a Florida State team that is undefeated but has had some Funkiness in there for sure. So I think that's a pretty fun way. So potentially Checking out the dogs and both these games Ohio State money line checking out the Florida Florida money line as well Plus 1808, I think that's a fun way to attack the college football side of things any other college football bets You're eyeing for week 13 Ed. I Couldn't find a market on this, but I would definitely be looking to fight fades in Florida State receivers Keon Coleman, I mean who knows what Tate rotamaker is gonna do I think Coleman is the stud on that team with with all the crazy catches that he's had this year I can imagine if that number is anywhere close to That's probably not gonna be a hundred, but if it's high, you know kind of take whatever his Average has been in ACC games And see see if it's high So that's a bet that I'm looking for I haven't found it yet, but I will I will be looking for it before Saturday Yeah, and markets tend to be posted later Friday for the most part So circle back for that to see if you can get some value on that checking on unders on the Florida State past catchers given the quarterback situation for Florida State Let's talk now about the NFL because we got some fun games there as well And honestly Ed a surprisingly fun one in the AFC South where Jacksonville is going to Houston to take on the Texans Right now spread there is one and a half total is 48 and a half and the Texans already beat the Jags once this year They're at home this time. Can they get the job done again and honestly take a lead in the AFC South? Yeah, that's right. They smoked them the first time around, right? Yeah so This is an interesting game in terms of how you wait kind of preseason versus data from the current season Obviously if you were gonna do this by preseason metrics didn't think much of Houston You'd make Jacksonville more of a favorite than they are when you take data from the current season Success rate your surpass attempt things that I look at I'd actually make Houston a two-point favorite here So they're slightly ahead of Jacksonville based on the data from the current season So, you know Jacksonville by by one and one and a half is the market right now It's obviously going to be that's kind of splitting the difference between that You know my numbers have Jacksonville by about three I would I would lean this way towards Jacksonville Just continue to be impressed with Jacksonville's defense tenth of my adjusted success rate fourth in coverage grade Cornerback Tyson Campbell did not play last week against Tennessee may not play here So but otherwise, you know both teams have a relatively clean injury list Which is kind of shocking at this point in in the NFL season So, yeah, I mean I would lean towards Jacksonville here Obviously, Houston and CJ Stroud have have been incredible this year But it's not like he hasn't had his his bad moments as a rookie this year So I would lean towards Jacksonville here at a minus one and a half. I Took the Texans money line again I think we've talked about this here on the show Ed, but I've bet the Texans money line every single week this year Not like seeking it out, but I've shown value every single week 11 consecutive games showing value my model on the Texans money line and I know why this is the case It's because my model heavily weighs passing efficiency and they've been the fourth most efficient passing offense in the league so far this year now I think that the case against that would be the Jags Didn't as a Jones for a long time didn't know the left tackle for a bit too So like they've had weird injury stuff for this year that has weighed them down And when they had say Jones back last week the offense shredded and the Texans past defense is not very good So they could do well from that perspective here so I think that's the case against my bet of the Texans money line, but The Texans have also dealt with a lot of injuries. They didn't have Nico Collins for a game Didn't have tank Del for a couple of games Larry me tonsil missed a bunch of time like they've had a rotating door of both wide receivers and offensive linemen and CG Started still been efficient throughout all that so I Respect the Jags the Jags for the Texans last year where I bet their money line pretty much every single week So I've been on the Jags before but here I do go at the Texans personally It's gonna keep on riding it until they really give me a reason not to basically but like I Do understand the the mindset of we could be waiting too much What's happened so far this year Stroud could regress we saw some of that last week two or three picks in that game That could happen. So I understand the other side, but also I'm just gonna you know, keep on riding until it breaks I guess. All right, sounds good. Alrighty other big game I want to talk about for this week in the NFL is going to be the bills at the Eagles with this spread has tightened a bit It's now bills plus three total is 48 and a half for this one And you and I both been on the bills plenty so far this year and they're facing a team that we've been pretty skeptical of But who did beat the cheese on Monday? So does our optimism around Buffalo and skepticism around the Eagles translate to this game as well or are we changing tune for this matchup? My numbers have Philadelphia by 2.9 points. So I'm pretty much right on market gun to head I would definitely bet Buffalo. I I think they've had a lot of bad luck with turnovers I just do not think this defense even with the injuries. They've had is like one of the bottom five units I'm pretty sure I said that last time we talked about Buffalo as well And I suspect that a future podcast episode On the football analytics show is gonna be the case against Philadelphia. I just think this team is very overrated I mean you look at the 33% passing success rate they had against Kansas City just the Absurd amounts of luck they had in winning that game Justin Watson just unable to catch a football Even though he's that's exactly what he's paid to do MVS dropping a pretty much a sure touchdown. I really like Buffalo Sorry, I really like Kansas City. One is two and a half in that game. I would bet that again immediately right now No questions asked So yeah, I mean I just you know, I I I'm probably gonna stay away from this game, but you know, I think if we I Think if we made this spread like for this again in about four weeks I think it'd be much closer to a pick Yeah, I took the bills plus three and a half when it was there For the same reasons you laid out like this offense is still very good They're the fifth ranked passing offense when you adjust for schedule just in 2023 and that that's looking at a model That doesn't I think it overweighs turnovers and it's a model where they should get dinged as a result of that So I've got two models as we discussed here on the show One model that weighs passing efficiency a bit more heavily than the other one does So I tend to discount that one of Philadelphia and look at the other model which views things a bit more holistically and That model the one that should favor them a bit more still has This spread at 1.9. So it has Philadelphia favored But even the one that that likes them more it still has Buffalo like the tiniest tiniest bit Better than them actually I guess it has equals a tiny bit better because it's a 1.9 I've got home feel at 1.8. So they're basically the same team in that and The plus three is minus one or two so I Do feel like Buffalo is the right side in this game I feel good about the movement so far getting into three when I got a three and a half I Agree with the overall handicap you were discussing the bills defense has been better than I thought they be with all the injuries Kudos to you for pinpointing that earlier on where you said hey, I think they're better than what they've done so far and they've Been pretty solid even accounting for schedule because that Jets game is is what it is but like you got it for schedule. They've been good to Like you got to take care of visiting at Zach Wilson. They did so they did and like Tim Boyle was actually worse than Zach Wilson Yeah So like we talk name junk about Zach Wilson all the time the spread in the Dolphins Jets game. Yes two points. Yep Exactly, and it probably should have moved two points Right like it. I mean, I guess they've just had it with Zach Wilson, which I completely understand Sure, he has not been able to reproduce the magic from from the one Kansas City game and But Tim Boyle, that's really your next option. I mean clearly Jill Flacco was available and The explanation here is they're tanking and they knew that they started Trevor Simeon. They'd win so like We know what the answer is we know why they went Tim Boyle It's because they were afraid of how good touchdown Trevor Simeon is and like I get it I get that too. You want a tank? You got to keep Trevor Simeon in a bottle until you're forced to use him I get it But that's the true explanation here. Obviously. Well, they just really want my under nine and a half wins to cash I don't think you don't worry about that one. I know I know it was a little bit worrisome for a bit But I think you're gonna be a little worrisome for a bit. Yeah, for sure. I think you're gonna be okay I think I'm gonna be okay stuff like that, but you're gonna be fine. I Think I think I'm gonna be alright. Yeah, what do I have that spread out this week? I Guess only 9.3 so Whatever other model has way more gross than that, but still, you know Gotta love the the line the line giving Zach Wilson vindication as he steps out the door Likely for the final time. That's all that we have here for us day on Covering the spread but Ed busy week as I know Thanksgiving is a huge week for you So what you got going on over at the Power Inc? Yeah, I'm really excited about a podcast I did it's all about I talked about some of it here, obviously Because Jim you had to ask me about Michigan at Ohio State but it's about a 10 minute episode and I've been trying to kind of do some audio experiments where Basically, it kind of feels like an audio book but not boring and there's some jokes in there Maybe some invitations of Ryan day pretty fun story about Jack Harbaugh So check that out at the football analytics show and only take 10 minutes to your time I guess I presume I guess I need to post it. I haven't posted it yet But I'll be up by the time this podcast is up And then yes, you know still writing my newsletter this week five nugget Saturday So if you need some action on this Thanksgiving weekend, I will have you set so check that out at the power rank Com all right find the podcast as well at the football analytics show Ed enjoyed the soccer game on Saturday Hopefully it's speedy so you can get back in time Or end of the first quarter, but enjoy all the football talk to you again soon. Happy Thanksgiving to you as well Happy Thanksgiving to you Jim. All righty fine Ed on Twitter at the power rank I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis you can find me on threads at Jim dots on us and find Fandor research at Fandor research again if you want the thoughts and Thanksgiving check out Tom Vecchio's podcast here in this exact same feed Talking some player props for all three games. Happy things giving to all of you We'll be back with you once again Monday to break down bears at Vikings Here and on the Fandall YouTube page and on Fandall TV plus. Happy Thanksgiving. We'll talk to you all again soon This has been covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network