 The following is a presentation of TFNN, the TFNN Bull Bear trading hour every trading day live at 10 a.m. Eastern call now toll free at 877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618 the TFNN Bull Bear trading hour now Tom and Tommy O'Brien welcome folks appreciate your growl and a problem with us out here we have the Dow Industries down 140, Nasdaq off 94, S&P's down 24, Gold contract down 4 dollars and 20 cents trading at 14.61 an ounce, get Silver down 9 cents, $16.87 an ounce, light sweet crude up a buck 19, $56.36 a barrel, notes and bonds you get the 10 year down 10 ticks, $129.01 the 30 off one point and six ticks at 157-27 and check this out man we are trading March 2020 futures we just rolled over for the bonds for the bonds I ran the gold report I heard we're almost there it's December first trading day of December King dollar King dollar down 283 ticks trading 97, 992 the euros at 110 the yen is at 109 and the pound is at 129 to 1 that you as a dollar what happened man I did the 9 o'clock update and boy I had to change things up dramatically until that 10 o'clock update because what a difference an hour can make when you get a market open at 9 30 a.m. and boy oh boy we've come a far away from where we were early this morning they sold into it 3158 the 3120 yeah pretty well it is and we actually made it to a little 3116 you know you're talking about you're talking about 42 SMP points that this that's a percent and a half folks and not not to be the grim reaper but last December markets down 10% okay we're 30 8 minutes into December trading to be exact yeah and you just had a percent and a half from where we were as of about pretty much you know what is it 430 530 this morning and let alone where we just went from 9 30 and now we get the end cues up and the end cues from 8457 to 8299 is that a lot of points 160 almost yeah totally man oh man 2% let's go over to the gold contract so you and I'm gonna kind of wait to bring up the bonds because what do you see this bond market folks so what we had last week was this it's pretty cool so you had well that's interesting a lot that's gonna be the wrong I was gonna say we're we're we're moving along in a lot of the contracts as we come into February 20 and gold alright so I'll change that baby up to so we did here we actually pushed higher last week inside the gold market after we rejected lower price so you can see here now that was pretty impressive last Friday when you had half a day yes 272,000 contracts and you're pushing higher price you know we got a rejection of lower price out here this morning bottom line that wants higher price now this is T so we're each oh I think yeah okay well after I'm gonna have to tune my I was gonna say the same thing we got it we had a h in there we got a zero at the end now instead of a niner okay so watch this man this is you're gonna it looks to me okay a total rejection of lower price out here today we had the 10 year but a 128 23 now we're only you know eight ticks off of that right now 129 flat yep bottom line though I think you're gonna get a rejection of lower price out here and that of course has to do with the aspect of the market going south and then if we go over to the dollar you know because the real kicker here is gonna be you know bottom line is that the dollar looks to me like a you know you're gonna go to the law and the consolidation you know which is that 97107 there you 97107 okay well see if we continue to get juice you know I mean that those taffs this morning yep seem like that they have more to do you know when they when they first put the taffs on China let's talk about yeah Brazil so new steel and aluminum right yep he had taken those off those two countries immediately Matthew if you look at both of their currencies we had talked about I kind of cracked up because we've been saying the Brazilian real right it's just extremely weak it's so there could be some credence to what's going on there but as you mentioned in your gold report right the tie-in to the Fed and not surprising that the president continues to hammer the Fed right to cut interest rates wants a week dollar and I put in you know in the morning market recap on the front page of TV and in this morning at a time of record unemployment we got the jobs number coming Friday 3.6% we just made an all new time high on Wednesday before Thanksgiving market pulled back a bit on Friday so I think that was the third consecutive all-time high in three in all three major indices and you have the president out there saying that we got a cut cut cut cut cut but nonetheless that's where we find ourselves to start December trading man and so the kicker here this is what's gonna get interesting folks is that if Trump wants to get into it currency war that would be that you know what I actually start thinking about he want he's good I mean doesn't matter what what it is he needs to fight every day somewhere and currency that would that would be the ultimate you know because they get the currency war folks if we get in the currency war this is gonna be you know you're gonna see metals go to the moon because we'll end up happening is that devaluation will happen everywhere there is no that means is that the lower that rates keep going but that devalues because there's so much cash now people don't know what to do it when I do when they keep devaluing it yeah I mean the Fed's not supposed to be cut cut cutting at a time when the market's at all time highs continually and we have record unemployment we're about to get jobs down but I think it's an expectation on Friday 190,000 added yeah with an unemployment rate of 3.6% you're supposed to have the Fed the reason why it's supposed to be non political is so because every politician wants I mean why not if you're president why don't you want negative 10% interest rates right I mean the Mario will go crazy but guess what that's gonna hurt the economy that's gonna hurt the country I was gonna I was gonna get there exactly in three four years when things slow down and there's no stimulus at all I mean that's why you know you have things like the Great Depression the Fed was put in place to kind of me and you know what I didn't know just to walk through so people hadn't seen it that is the tweet you know talking about President Trump saying Brazil and Argentina presiding over massive devaluation the currency not good for our farmers therefore effective immediately restore the tariff steal an aluminum and then he goes in here to tie it the Federal Reserve should likewise act so the countries of which there are many no longer take advantage of our strong dollar by further devaluing their currencies you know it's easy to look at things on a trade basis and say a strong dollar and be tough on companies trying to do business and compete with countries abroad but you don't want a very weak currency in a world economy folks because that says that you're a very weak country in a economy in the world inflation beyond belief yeah yeah what was intriguing here folks is that when I saw this this morning you know like stealing on aluminum what I didn't realize is that so Lighthouser who's the chief negotiator yes Lighthouser was the chief lobbyist but all the steel companies before it became the negotiator so I'm gonna put my surprise face on you know after this is why I says oh that's why it's so easy I was he says hey we got to put these chaps back on them do you know what I mean yeah and I you know and then you also have this morning China responding a bit right with no more Navy ships in Hong Kong a bit on the U.S. legislation back in the protesters might not play into a phase one trade deal but boy oh boy the market worried about something out there selling it off at the open December for December 2nd actually we'll get into some of the if you saw the retail numbers man just staggering I know Black Friday so we're spending money man billions upon billions I did I didn't spend I was out in brick and mortar serious to and online get it all Friday that's right today seven Monday we'll see what you do stay right there folks Tommy and I come right back if you're not currently using the TAS profile scanner when looking at setting up your trading opportunities then your arsenal is short a mighty weapon the TAS profile scanner is a standalone piece of software that instantly filters over 2,500 global financial markets such as stocks ETFs commodity futures and forex headed by Steve doll TAS understands that in today's technological world the use of top flight software applications and technical analysis expertise is essential to successful trading in today's market you also gain access to the webinar that Steve doll and Tom O'Brien just hosted the best way to use the TAS profile scanner to profit this webinar archive is available for all subscribers immediately upon signing up all new subscriptions also come with a 30-day money back 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pricing in six months and yearly options check out the new TFN N com now and experience all the upgrades TFN N com educating investors call now toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618 that was down 115 Nasdaq's off 81 S&P's are off 20 and we take a look at some of the higher volume equities out here so Morgan Stanley downgraded Roku I guess Roku man we want some volatility we talk about defined risk with oil and natural gas trades you better get some defined risk if you trade in Roku man one way or the other down $26 waking up down 26 dogs why people love options man because boy oh boy and look at what they're trying to do at least it was going back to test the highs so I got up there I won't count Friday of no yeah for Wednesday even 16 million no I think you're on off that's that's Wednesday that's right okay so let's count that one yeah 19 million going at the 23 going at the 34 and then just gives it up what's crazy is that you go back what day was this you don't have to go far back man November 6th you go from basically the same thing you from 143 yeah down to 116 as a high volume low then you make it all the way back up to 170 for some reason this is that what is it 168 and you're back at 135 man you're back now below where we were which the low there is 136 81 and the to pull it up I mean Morgan Stanley basically saying that everything that you could think of is priced into the stock is what I was reading about downgrade to underweight equal weight Morgan Stanley wrote that the streaming video platform could see growth revenue and profits slow meaningfully next year risk to growth expectations not reflected in the current valuation levels I mean it's just that is you know 400% that's it yeah I mean we just we just pulled up why you know in terms of that chart in terms of what was going on pretty wild it is man let's go take a look at some of the other high of volume equities out here and see what we get before it yeah I get best I'm just clicking around as you're going through it man yeah you got Bank of America is up 18 cents you got Apache is down to 60 they haven't some problems and it will patch or apples off a buck 60 nothing else is heavy out there so let's look at this one yeah best buy excuse me I get one more blue blue okay so they want it on Black Friday weekend sales grew 5.4% to a record boy that is a big numbers that a 69 billion dollars sales moved online before Cyber Monday growing 20 percent on Friday and I would definitely agree just from my personal experience I mean you didn't feel like you had to get up and go to the stores right idea I was just telling you the break I made to some of the stores but you really didn't have to stores are waking up to the fact that why would you wait now today's a big day as well right all the sales were kind of like a Friday to Monday type deal you know and they will probably end today but guess what they're still gonna have some but this is a more of an online deal and and they have a shortened holiday shopping I think it's six less days right from Thanksgiving to Christmas well they started off well oh boy man and I believe I saw the number yes so here's online 7.4 billion dollars online on Friday alone yeah that is staggering when you think about that it used to be the scenes of hysteria right in terms of people basically fighting breaking down doors you know you now have seven billion dollars online just on that Black Friday alone and pretty well it is pretty wild you know and I wonder what they get but I guess those are the big winners they say and you got Apple down there saying their Black Friday airport sales appear robust yeah I'm sure they all kind of did well in terms of this let's go to Mike and Mary Mack New Hampshire hey Mike what's going on brother hey good morning Tom take a natural gas I'm not in it but wondering where you think that's headed natural gas widow maker it's like what we're volatility in Roku volatility in natural gas let's take a look he wants to look at UNG with US natural gas fund but I want to bring up and G let me bring up the futures first so and G let's see we're not in December there we go okay so got about ten inches of snow on your old neighborhood I know I was just gonna ask you ten inches is that what you have already yes and it's still snowing right yes oh my god it's December oh boy okay so this is a mess one second and and G and G I gotta bring up the generic contract okay so that had quite a day on Friday oh I mean you just got wiped out not you I'm just the market man yeah I wouldn't touch this thing man I mean yeah you think it's gonna go continue lower yeah the lowest game 202 is game man that that type of bar now I get this in a weekly back daily that's a 50 cent bar and just so you understand something a dollar in the natural gas market is $10,000 a contract yeah so it's like about 44 cents just in that last week yeah that's just intense we go over to UNG so we go to UNG the ETF that he's actually looking at put it back I can do the monthly because we just ended November oof that's it I can't see anything to get back to like three years okay what is that yeah I don't touch this thing man this is okay yeah and you know it's so wild folks is that just just you know Mike just I can absolutely see why you want to touch it because I can tell you up until I traded natural gas a lot we go back 10 15 years I traded for good five years in a row and what happened is that this is when natural gas was a lot higher because even the I remember the I had to put up like 12,000 a contract and okay but what happened is this is that there's such a disconnect between even you know technically sometimes how it's set up and fundamentally I'd say to myself oh my god hold it it's freezing all over the country they got to use natural gas well guess what no they didn't you know and so it just seems to me that natural gas in general is not a great thing to trade and I'm you know saying that and not just personally bet I've even since not trading it I haven't traded it for good five years now right and is it disconnect man and it has to do with this contract here only has to do with where this is stored it doesn't have to do with like we'll end up happening you'll hear me on the air say no okay so what ends up happening is that like Boston like you know I bet we'll hear okay that in the next three or four days that natural gas up in your area Mike okay is gonna go exponential in price but that's the spot market and sometimes it goes up 200 300% for two or three days at a time that comes back down versus this market here meaning where it's stored because natural gas you can't get easily from one place to another I think that's the biggest problem do you know what I'm saying and once you tie it in once like this and then once it's cold they know it's gonna be cold you know what I mean it's the unpredictable part of things where it's gonna be maybe in two three four weeks so what's going on that you don't know yet because once it's snowing 10 inches the market had priced that one in but just to pull up the last part that I found interesting so you did say you know for every dollar in here it'd be $10,000 so every 50 cents it'd be $5,000 you'd have for exposure and you're putting up only about 2450 to 2700 bucks so just last week alone and just how that would play into that type of market you have to consider it right because you have people putting up 2600 and seven you know call it 2700 bucks right and so basically if the contract moves 27 cents they're wiped out and you had 45 cents a movement last week that plays into things for sure thank you gentlemen thanks Mike stay warm stay safe out there man totally our phone number is 877-927-6648 it was called folks come right back hi folks Tom O'Brien here if you'd like to get my daily newsletter market insights then now is a great time to sign up for a 30-day free trial every morning by 9 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new piece of software get your copy of the art of timing the trade charts today by visiting TFNN.com this segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information just click the think or swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com it's down down 151 we get the NASDAQ off 99 recipes are off 25 and let's get over we got a couple of targets that was explained to us that you get a couple what happened actually last week folks is pretty cool and inside the metal market the gold and silver equities you had a couple of them get due confirmed ABC structures on the way out and one of them was Pan American silver and now you're gonna get follow-through out here which is pretty amazing because on Friday where we had half a day this did 2.3 million shares which is really impressive definitely you know and when Pan American likes to move man it likes to move so it's gonna get intriguing here you know flat out is that let me pull this back actually what do I get that on on three years because it looks like it's break it out of this consolidation I need a little more juice but yeah it's not really consolidation but well 181875 that's gonna put that's gonna put that put game high at 2159 yeah that's going back August of 2016 and then a new month I just prefer what is that high that we're coming into are we over that yeah 1948 interesting level yeah coming it is yeah we're gonna need some juice there on the weekly we're gonna need some volume and then new month I didn't see this one but oh this is nice okay so new month can do an ABC up also so yeah five million shares you're at 1.6 more than likely you're gonna get an ABC up so what's that that's 3875 36 so what's 275 something yeah let's get you about 40 bucks right yeah 40 40 dollars and 50 cents good so what likely that thing's gonna run to 41 25 so there's a what else was stronger let me do the Franco Nevada a couple of streamer stocks the royalty stocks still haven't got enough juice in them well Franco Nevada is up 50 cents now that needs more volume royal gold which got hurt from one of its mines that needs more volume to have both of the both of those stocks need more volume you know we'll we'll see how that shakes out but I like the setup I like the setup oh great panther's a trouble we get a question here about great panther you're gonna be really if you're in great panther man there's something wrong with that stock you have the gold report you know I've been talking about this for a long time this never should have broke low with the kind of volume we did 42 cents now you don't have to be a technician to find the downtrend on that chart and in an area where we've had some action go right so I think it's 30 cents it can go let me see this thing man I'd say it can go to zero yeah it's something not right yeah stock man was that's 14 yes 30 if it's going at 30 what's the difference between going in 30 and zero if we can pull up what's the what's the market cap on this stock once you get to this level because I always like to check out once you get to a critical level of 130 million bucks man 132 million yeah if this thing was worth any real money you could have a gold company just come in and buy it I wouldn't think it's so wild I know and you know they take in 267 million but yet they're still showing the first quarter so they're gonna have a loss so there's something not quite right with that it with that equity man that yeah that's the bottom line so what kind of what kind of debt do they have what kind of risks do they have to that level yeah that's right what's the what is it cost them to get that or because what you would definitely have here there's strong gold and silver stocks out here man yes for sure you know and so that's important to understand inside that market you know you just yeah you just can't go say it okay straight across it's gonna be a good scene let's go in the what do you want to know I was just gonna mention there's a lot of people in that industry right that understand things fundamentally for the new RIs and they just like that's what they do for a living 24 seven right they run gold companies yeah if you saw a company like that continuing to move lower and it was only a hundred and thirty million dollars to buy you could I mean that's only you put up 20% equity to buy a company and put on loan you're talking about 25 million dollars that you have to put up to buy the entire company right somebody would do it if there was a huge devaluation I just wouldn't when especially because Bruce that's what I mean my stocks is to that low of a price level you know and then that low of a market cap you really got to be careful because people in the industry would just scoop it up at that level if it was that easy even with stock that's what I mean that's what I mean exactly right yeah inside the down industrials taken away from it today you get visa put negative 25 points bowling 20 Microsoft 18 Apple 14 nothing heavy what's up with visa man people didn't spend enough on their plastic cards this weekend or what either that I kid and all these other things who knows it's quite a little pullback and we can jump into the news after we take a look I'm curious what hit them I thought it well yeah not quite a pullback when you put it on a monthly long-term chart so 2010 your credit card industry is just fine yeah exactly what is the news on them if you could after nothing yeah and you know the the credit card business is not getting smaller folks no I mean that's one of the more worrisome things I would say about the economy is the amount of money that people are putting on their credit cards and the amount of maybe auto loan debt some of those areas where we're at record unemployment but people are just barely getting by and people can't seem to stop spending money and though you know me that you can't stop spending money you're barely making a wage in terms of you know this gig economy type deals you have a job benefits are decreasing across the board yeah from middle class yeah you're putting money on the credit card I mean auto loans what's the average new car loan right now it's like over $40,000 or something staggering right and you know it's really wild what I have a high time right my head around so pitch this I don't see it the debt well the last crisis the depression crisis okay 2007 yeah everyone was using the house as a piggy bank yes I don't see that yes yeah yeah okay but we have three times the amount of debt in the economy right now okay then we had in 2006 three times the amount does that get tying business could be a huge part of that there's no doubt about that but that's pretty intense number you have all these corporations taking out debt they do to offer buybacks right that's not growing you know that's not infrastructure spending that's not capital spending that's just straight out borrowing money to give it back to your shareholders and then if there's a slowdown that could really hit things hard yeah let's go take a look at the year old they're selling the dollar man I mean it's selling everything right now man the S&P's making new lows right now the Euro okay so the Euro is 110 let's get some action definitely that looks like 112 was gonna be game the British pound let's see what that looks like Brexit right around the corner man oh yeah that's flat yep the yen no currency I need oh this is good thank God this thing failed all you golden bulls out here we lucked out on this one look at this thing it got right over that 109 32 like nothing and then gave it up that last night well let me see I'll put on a daily it was last night yeah we went to 109 73 to 109 11 now that doesn't seem like much but this is this bar here is a big deal folks sure you know cuz you can you stay over that bar man and that thing go to 112 which would not be good you know nice jump around I forget which one let me see I like the four quadrants we'll do it when you get back right there it is so yeah look at that dollar index and going from 98 forward to 97 there's your Euro I think huge part of it's Europe you're about to go from 110 to 111 right and I told you 60% of the dollar and that's huge right yeah and that's probably hitting the end a little bit as well yes stay right there folks if you're in the CD market and looking for a secure investment the Tiger first mortgage program may work for you the security for these first mortgages are building lots in the tax opportunity zone in st. 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happen to see there at a very very round number coming into things today and uh not so much anymore man a little bit of a pullback because it's so it's intriguing like Amazon in 1771 you know five months ago you're at 2035 yeah um it came to the top of the consolidation couldn't handle it and amazon has this high volume low that looks like it wants to get hit and you get a couple of here so the first one well that's not really a high volume well this here it is here so that's 1672 okay it's a hundred bucks almost on the dot so no and a real kick is going to be you know this was last December I think yeah it was now the real kicker is it is it is it gonna you know go play sure and it's you know sandbox down here for last December then be quite a lower sandbox well you know what happens with amazon too folks it is always so hard to buy I've never bought it okay but I'm telling you every time that I look at it I say I want to buy it I want to buy it and then it because watch how it plunges when Amazon plunges Amazon went from 2050 oh yeah let's just say that October yeah 2033 that's the first week of October to $1300 and $7 now the S&P to be fair went from I think 2900 to 2300 oh no I know I know um I I get it believe me it just wasn't an amazon plunge though no you have the S&P go down like 20% and amazon went down a little more than that but it's so what's cool that I look at right because I was jumping around today at one point we had amazon google microsoft and apple all kind of eyeing for that trillion dollar maybe yeah and check out the charts of so amazon we looked at if you can jump let's start it off with apple okay now amazon right now $177 billion company all right apple 1.17 if we could put it on a chart just to see how different things look and then wait till we get to google and microsoft man as well so look at where you have to back it up a little bit no okay I just wanted to catch even where we were in December right but talk about leaps and bounds above the highs that it was at right now you had apple go from 233 down to 142 that's a bigger pullback than amazon had on that pullback but man oh man did they charge back now if we go to google because it's staggering where where has amazon been and this is going to be kind of the point of this you know what I mean because you back this up and even put it just to encompass you know the the real collapse in December so there was your collapse in terms of really going from the highs yet in July last year 1335 everything hits the low of call it a thousand and now google we're at 1286 but I wanted to finish with microsoft if we could because boy oh boy they are just gang busters to the upside and we got microsoft right now with a market cap we'll pull it yeah 1.138 so I knew they were right next to the 1.17 of apple and boy they're down over 1% today so taking a little bit of a hit but just put it on a two-year or three-year or wherever just so we can and not quite the pullback but boy oh boy man you had the high there of 1.16 and we're now sitting at 150 wow to put things what was the low look at this 93 93 yeah and you know comparatively right amazon's high was 2050 okay microsoft's high was 116 when I saw a 35 we're like 33 over the high in microsoft if you had ever had something similar you would be trading at like 2600 and amazon right now and amazon is trading at 1770 well yeah so they've been lagging they've been lagging in a big way now over the world no and maybe microsoft you know I don't think they're you know all the talk is that amazon web server right that that nobody really can compete even even with microsoft the azure like gaining ground yeah that just amazon is chugging along and amazon web service but what's been the talk the talk's been target man crushing it and walmart catching up and that's not hitting microsoft that's hitting amazon yeah cool yeah let's get a loot and spoke in washington what's going on brother hey hey tom and tommy thanksgiving oh good good good a lot of turkey yeah perfect stuffing potatoes gotta love it definitely well you know time you you mentioned that bet that this guy put on for four thousand dollar silver in 18 months what was it one and a like i was listening to your show on wednesday man so what happened folks is that well i gotta pull it up again with it with it with it's 18 months 18 months he put up 1.75 million for a strike price of uh i think it was four thousand four thousand yeah because you were even saying that's pretty intense you know maybe if you got 3200 you might make money or something like that it's gonna yeah because even even if gold's in an abc structure up it only brings us like 25 to 2600 but guess what we there's no doubt loose someone's putting their money up there man the ironic thing is that if we do get any currency um devaluation if that's what trump wants to do well guess what you know we can be there pretty quick yeah well you know the way i look at it it's not a bad bet at all i mean i don't know the specifics but you know range of uh order i'd say it's not because moody's just came out with what they're calling a worldwide credit downgrade now what the heck does that mean that would mean to me that would mean that every central bank is going to have to print money so that the bigger loans that all these companies have can get turned over and not paid back see extend and pretend right but that's you know they're into that so that's the whole thing on this bet right that they just came out with the new figures on the world debt 255 trillion dollars now personally i think that's there's a lot of debt off the books it's not counted in that but even if you just take that no there's no doubt what lou just said this is what is different also folks from 2007 2004 or five the shadow banking is much bigger and shadow banking would be considered the black rocks of the world the i mean there's so many other non banking entities that lend hundreds of billions of capital providing that right yeah and a lot of that is is this off the books betting that's holding down the metals i believe yeah you know they're basically basically over the counter the metals market what you'd call over the counter uh contracts yeah not showing up anywhere yeah the metals market is so small that guess what the the futures traders can't hold it to a certain point there's no doubt about that now that being said they'll hold it till they don't hold it and then they'll run it you know that that's this four thousand dollar bet this guy's figure and that's going to happen in the next year and a half right no i know i know yeah well you know what i don't think that's a bad bet i mean i i wouldn't make it if i had a couple million dollars but you know may have had a hundred million i would that that's you know i think it's over the top but guess what that's what makes markets it doesn't matter i hope he's right because he's right we're all gonna freaking retire and that's it you always gotta keep in mind that it could be a heads man if you have a 250 million dollars in the market you say man if if all hell breaks loose yeah and and and you know we get some kind of debt collapse crisis right i i got a back pocket you know get out of jail break lou having great one man have a safe one thanks lou okay you thank you stay right there folks tom and i'll come back you are or strive to be one of the best of the best at everything you do in life it's the most common trait that we tigers and tigers share if you're looking to become the best of the best when it comes to managing your money let me teach you to do what most wealth managers tell you can't be done which is how to time the markets i'm steve rhodes author of mastering probability and for the last 12 months timer digest has been tracking my newsletter signals which have earned me the ranking as their number one market timer in the nation for the s and p 500 for the last 12 six and three 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the Chapman wave methodology along with other indicators basil Chapman advises his subscribers of his expert market opinion each market day with his opening call newsletter right now you can get a two week free trial to the opening call basil's daily trading newsletter by visiting the front page of tfnn.com cancel it anytime during that trial and pay absolutely nothing get your two week free trial to basil's newsletter the opening call today by visiting tfnn.com this segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information just click the think or swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com so option bet $4,000 right so this is just to pull it up and when are we talking about here June 2021 yeah and uh it's 19 uh 19 listen to me it's 2019 right now so that's you know like you were saying about 18 months whatever it is so they spent a 1.75 million they got them at $3.50 an ounce you buy it at 4,000 so simple math the break even becomes $4,000 $4,003.50 for break even they got a little bit of math 4,000 you lose it all because you just get to your strike price right it gets that 4,003 your break even it's worth 1.75 million to get back your capital it gets to 4,100 you get 50 million it makes it to 5,500 million oh yeah I mean of course all right just to put this is like uh playing powerball almost not quite right not quite but but pretty close man um so it it is quite a bet if it's a standalone wager and I would guess that whoever made this wager has significant exposure to other things in the market besides just gold because if gold hits 4,000 let alone 5,000 that's a year oh there's something wrong with a lot going on in our economy whatever it is for sure right um and see when you when you bring up folks if I bring up the the long-term contract I've talked about this before gold can be in an abc structure on the way up from the beginning of the bull market sure but that's still only going to get you like 20 something that's why I mean if we even hit 2,500 gold that's that's where we might be in trouble in the economy let alone five to four or five thousand right go ahead and that's the abc structure up you know it's uh what that's 1900 yeah so 1700 a to b that's 2700 right approximately and just to put it that's if it's an abc up but that a to b like took 10 years yes so so keep that no and it would take another 10 years exactly that's right stay right there folks take a swim coming up as the trap and I'll be back this afternoon thanks man thanks man yeah look at them folks