 Iealaeth brydwch cyngor i'r ffaith heddiw gyda'r plant yn gymaint yma. Rhaid i chi'n örth y semeun i gyfaint ym Mhall Gwanaethol mewn ffordd Llyfr. Rwy'n dweud gyda'n meddwl gyda y Minister Dennis Noughton. Rhaid i chi'n f orbitaliaeth i gael bydd i'r unrhyw yma i'r ffaith yma, euir yr unrhyw amser mewn dod rydym ni'n gref. Ond ydy'n meddwl gofynio'r holl o'r ffordd llunydd i chi'n fod yn nodi'r cefnod, a ddweud y ffordd o'r ffordd a'n froged ar y télawwysion ond ac rwy'n maen nhw'n gweithio yn y bwysig nesaf phir y bwysig, sy'n ddweud â'ch maen nhw yw'n sefydli'ch gael y pherwydd. Pwy fyddai, yw'r ddiogel i fel â y twddwch ymnyddio'n gwneud yn y ffordd? Dwi'n wneud mwych chi, Matt. Mae'n fwrdd yn siŵr o'ch bywysig hyn. but at least I can maybe change a little bit about your perception of the weather. Prediction in a changing world, prediction is what we do, but I've been at this game now for nearly 40 years, so I've certainly seen some changes in the way that the weather that is coming towards us. But when people look at climate change and they look at the numbers and they say, well a degree or two, what's that going to mean? We need to think a little bit about some of the other aspects of what weather brings to us a oedd yn rhanllw i'w raddio yn sicr, yn ffordd o'n rhanllw i'r raddio ym ni, eto, wedi'u rhanlw i'r rhanlw i'r rhanlw i'w raddio, ond yn meddwlodigol yn yr hyn yn nifu. Felly i'r rhanlw i fel sicr o'r hyn o'r hologau a'r m feelings yna. Ond o'n teimlad o'r hynod, a'n teimlad o'r ddarmigau, mae'n bod yn leirio o'r cynhyrch o'r hwnnw, yw'r cyfrifysg, yw'r wath i ymwneud o unrhyw ymwneud. Mae yw'r cyfrifysgau yn ei ddannu. Felly, mae'n ddiddordeb yn cyfrifysgau yn ymddiad o'r Unedlaeth Llefany yw'r ddweud i'r cyfrifysgau yn y ddweud o'r ddwylliant. Dwi'n gweithio y 25-year yw yw ydwllteb gan ddwylliant ymddiad, a mae'n ddweud yw'r cyfrifysgau a'r ddwylliant yn y ddwylliant yw'r ddwylliant yw'r ddwylliant, mae'r sefydlu erioedd yn y distig, oes y tuigau iechyd erioedd. The economy is floating, it is windstorms and it is earthquake, so these are reasons why we need to consider very carefully if our weather patterns are changing. If we look at the regional distribution of loss of life in that same 25-year period by dividing the world into 6 regions – these are through the UN regions – we see that floating drought, of course, is the big one in Africa, there are half million people there, From Europe, Europe, the great hot wave in 2003 which affected primarily France but also parts of Belgium, part of Germany, Switzerland, Spain, 50 thousand excessive deaths those were big numbers. We are not in this technologically advanced corner of the world in any way immune from the malign effect of severe weather. And when we look at it through the lens of economic losses. Ibarwch arall honnach ac mae'r cyfnodau dylai sydd yn iawn i gyfle a'r ffledd ac i ni i beth peol i gynnwys. Felly mae'r rhan o gynnwys iddyn nhw'n gwahanol yn dweud, ac yn ddangos i'n gwahanol rhywbeth, a'r ddim yn gofyllfa'n gwahanol arnoch. Felly, mae'r rhag mewn ei yn ei ddim yn ei dweud. Felly, rydyn ni'n gwahanol i gynodd yn cael ei fath arbryd, ond ben oedd y fath yn y ddefnydd yw'r gweithio i'r fath, ond we will continue to see the effects of our changing climate most keenly. Now, most of these graphs I'm going to show you just a reference back come from this publication, which was put out by Medheryn a couple of years ago, Ireland's climate, the road ahead. We know for many years of these global models, which give us some indication of how the climate is changing on the global scale, but, of course, we're a little rock perched on the northwest corner of the Eurasian Massif, if you like, with the Atlantic out there. We want to know what does it mean for us in our little corner of the world. And how we do that is we take these models, these global models, and what we call downscaled them. We run them at much finer resolution over our little island to find out what are those regional implications of changing climate for our particular part of the world so that we can begin to plan and so on. So this document, if you like, is a foundation document for infrastructure planning for Ireland for the decades ahead. So let's look at two different aspects, changes in temperature and changes in rainfall. And in each case, because, of course, weather prediction is such that when we're looking ahead, we don't just look at a single year. That would be silly. We look at a band of years. So we're looking here at averages over the period 2040 to 2060. So that 20-year period straddling the middle of the century, straddling 2050. And we're looking here at formats of changes in temperature, spring, summer, autumn and winter. And the likely changes are in the order of a couple of degrees and probably a little bit more in the latter part of the year than in the earlier part of the year. In the summer, it's more towards the south and southeast of the country. In the winter, it's more towards the north and northeast. But all places seeing that increase in temperature. So you might say, so what? A couple of degrees here or there probably won't make a lot of difference. But if we look at the maximum temperature, so these are the highest temperatures achieved each day and how those would be changing, and look at under two emission scenarios on the right-hand side, medium to low emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases on the left-hand side, the higher emission scenario, which is effectively the emission scenario we're currently on globally. Then you see much, much larger numbers there in the likely increase in maximum temperature. Now, if we think back to that big number of people who died from heat stress in mainly France in 2003, we've done some work with colleagues here in Dublin looking at the effect of heat stress on the Irish population. And you'd be surprised at how low the numbers are, 26, 27 Celsius. You know, not really very hot weather for those of us who may have been in holiday in Spain or whatever. But at those sorts of temperatures, we begin to see an increase in admissions to hospital, people with respiratory illnesses, elderly people by and large, not entirely. So we're getting into that sort of territory now when we look at the T-max rises, if you like, in the summer months. And then the minimum temperature is rising even more. So the likelihood of nighttime frosts much, much, much less. So those figures, if you like, are pretty solid for the sort of changes we're seeing and we will be seeing as we head into the middle of this century, which, you know, it's not that far away now. It's just over 30 years, some of us hopefully still to be around in those days. In rainfall changes, here we have medium to low emission scenarios on the right summer, drier weather, particularly in the south, on the left winter, wetter weather in the north and northwest. So looking at an average over the year doesn't mean an awful lot. This actually is looking at a change in the distribution of rainfall, wetter in the winter, drier in the summer. In the high emission scenario, that's even more marked, particularly those wetter winters. And because the atmosphere is warmer, it's carrying more moisture than the propensity for events, such as we saw yesterday, such as we saw back in August in Donegal, where you have these intense periods of rainfall lasting for three, four, five hours, dumping a lot of water. The likelihood of that sort of event certainly seems to increase, and indeed we've seen an increase in that even in the last while. Now, that might all seem a little bit theoretical looking forward, but I'm going to show you a very interesting graph here now, which has been compiled by a colleague, head of climatology in Medheryn. Now what he's done is he's looked at the rainfall over winter, just winter, and for us winter, apologies, 20 primary school teachers here, winter is December, January, February, those are the three months of the meteorological winter, and he's averaged the rainfall out over the whole of the island of Ireland, so gone back and done some forensic work with the historical records, and tried to get what's one number that would represent the average winter rainfall over the island of Ireland in, say, 1875 or thereabouts. And the graph looks something like this. So starting at 1850 on the left-hand side, you can see the variability, there's dry winters, there's wet winters. Generally 200 to 400 millimetres seems to be where it is, and the average is probably somewhere around 320 millimetres. And that really continues right up until the turn of the millennium. Then we had a few dry years, and then suddenly out of nowhere we had basically two very wet winters, which were 1314 and 1516, where we had respectively 550 millimetres of rain, and I think the 602 was that highest peak. Now, the conundrum for us is, is this just a statistical anomaly? When we come back in 2100 and look at this graph, will those peaks be just standing out from the background, or are they part of something new and something different? Scientifically we don't know the answer to that question yet. What I would say is that if you were going to a bookies and putting on a bet to be collected in 2100, I suspect he'd be laying odds that the statistical anomaly option might not be the one, it might be the longer odds. That's the question. So, with all of that, if I were heading out to RTE to do a weather forecast in the year 2050, what sort of things would I be likely to be talking about? Well, if it was a winter month, I'd certainly be looking at more Atlantic storms because we saw that wetter milder profile and that's consistent with more Atlantic weather, more weather coming in from the west, more stormy weather, more rain. So, the Shannon, the Barrow, the Blackwater, those rivers, those relatively long, slow rivers, likely to be fuller and those towns along those rivers likely to be more at threat. Frost, probably unlikely, we're already seeing in many countries that when they look at winter, whatever way you define it, winter has shortened by about one month. That's been measured in the US, been measured in New Zealand. Very little frost is likely to be measured here too. Higher seas already a factor a couple of years ago with hurricane Sandy as it impacted the northeast coast of the US. The seas in that part of the Atlantic are already 60 to 70 centimetres higher than they were in the beginning of the 1900s. That's a fairly significant rise in sea level and then you put a hurricane and storm surge on top of that. Increased risk of coastal flooding, Dublin, Arclo, Exford, all those towns that the Vikings left us around the coast which well built for your longships, maybe with the sea levels increase we're going to see problems there. In the summer, well warmer and drier, maybe more heat stress for the elderly. The east and southeast, possibly more frequent droughts there which will mean water shortages, most of our population is in the east and the southeast as we know. For our dairy farmers and our beef farmers, the grass growth which they rely on I suppose and which our industry is built on, less reliable. On the other hand maybe the grain more reliable. Pluses and minuses maybe but in general it's probably not something we'd want to look forward to. Thank you. While we're waiting for the minister to join us and be with us in a second, is there anything that could be done Gerald to alleviate all of this to make sure that what you're suggesting for 2050 may not be quite as bad as all that? So we can do very little to alleviate the weather risk, the hazard in the sense that we can do our part along with the rest of the globe in reducing our carbon emissions and it's necessary that we do our part and Europe is leading in this of course. But it's the response of other countries and particularly the big emitters that are going to determine globally what will happen. What we have to do is plan for the worst even if we hope that it might happen. That's certainly the case in terms of flooding, in terms of building flood defences which will be predicated on these potentially higher levels of rainfall in terms maybe of not building on areas which potentially could be flooded in this higher rainfall in terms of maybe looking at the different mix in agriculture. Already we've had some requests from IFA groups around the country to come and talk to them about is it time that we got out of grain in our part of the country and got more into forestry or whatever. So if we think ahead, imagine what it might be like and plan for it. We can probably in an economic sense reduce the impact. But we will have to change. Just a couple of things. Technologically now with the advances in scientific advance are we much better at understanding and predicting near term weather patterns? Absolutely. The huge improvement in weather forecasting in the last 15 or 20, 30 years has been driven by two things. First of all, the satellite meteorology which has just increased the amount of observation of the atmosphere that we have and the number of observation points and so on. But then the computing power what we call the fundamental equations of meteorology. These are mathematical equations to describe what happened to the atmosphere. They're very complex. They need very powerful computers to run them. Those have been improved. The computers have been improved. And the detail we're getting out of those models now is tremendous. And it will continue to improve for some time yet. That's been driving if you like the short term weather forecast improvement. Because you're in a much better position now to predict almost hour for hour region by region across the country what's going to happen over the next 24, 36 hours. Because we have more detail of what's already happening and we have these models which are run at we run hours now at finest resolution of 2.5 km. So 2.5 km grid laid over the whole country is a fairly fine resolution grid. Potentially we can tell the weather at any point at any time. Now it's not quite as simple as that. The weather is a chaotic system so we have to build that into our thinking also. But is it the case now and just the final thing that we do seem to be having more variations within the short periods of time in our weather? Even this week we'd have seen very, very mild and warm two days ago and suddenly torrential rain yesterday and now I think we're expecting a much colder night tonight. We're getting into a cold spell now for the next three or four days and that's not unusual for November. What has been unusual is those very high temperatures that we've seen in the last week and that very warm air has carried all that moisture which when it meets the very cold air then dumps all the moisture down in those very heavy rain bursts. So it's those incursions of warmer and wetter air at this time of the year which bring us that increased risk of flooding because the warmer carries a lot of moisture and when it meets the cold air then that moisture gets dropped out of the air as rainfall. Gerald Femming, thank you very much and good luck in your retirement as well. I think I have my microphones working there. I just lost my lapel mic for a second but we'll proceed anyway. And our next speaker now we're delighted that we are joined by Minister Dennis Nocton who is going to give us the government perspective on the low carbon future. Minister for Communications, Climate Action and the Environment, Dennis Nocton. Thanks very much, Matt. I'm delighted to be here this afternoon. Apologies if I literally have to run out the door because we have the finance bill inside and the doll at the moment and I'm very excited that we're going to be here inside and the doll at the moment and the last thing we need at the moment is the government to lose a vote on a money bill because based on what Gerry is saying it wouldn't be nice to be banging on doors with snow running down our necks. But I want to thank you for inviting me here this afternoon but I'm also conscious that while we're here the people in Lees are suffering because of extreme flooding. The government's emergency relief plan is in operation with members of the Defence Forces, fire crews and council staff on the ground saving houses and businesses and farms. My thoughts are with those families evacuated from their homes last night and the business owners who are facing into very difficult days and weeks ahead on the run into Christmas. As well as coming from the midlands I'm only well aware of the devastation that can be caused by flooding and as a country we can all see the impact that severe weather is having particularly when storm Ophelia hit here a few weeks ago. I'd like to take this opportunity to again thank and commend the ESB emergency crews their apprentices, their contract staff and their EU colleagues who worked around the clock in dangerous conditions to restore power to hundreds of thousands of homes after storm Ophelia. Your conference here today is timely and your title and theme take charge is apt. I understand the aim of your discussions is to explore how to link Ireland's low carbon energy future in practical way with the lives of people. As the ESB recently celebrated its 90th anniversary it's an opportune time to look forward to how we adapt to an evolving energy landscape. While government and industry can provide the framework and tools it's the people themselves who use these tools that will drive forward our smart and low carbon energy future. People cannot be commanded they must be consulted. As Minister for Climate Action I must enable people to take action themselves. The change that is required requires people to become agents and authors of action. Ireland relies on high emission imported fossil fuels to meet 88% of our energy needs. That cost is about 5 thousand million euro per annum or half a million euro every single hour. That's a cost that we cannot afford in cash terms and that our planet cannot afford at all. If the money that Ireland spends on energy imports can be redirected to energy efficiency and smarter energy services it will replace imported fossil fuels with local jobs and opportunities for Irish companies. The word global in global warming accurately summarises the incontrovertible science underlying that imminent threat. It is also in its vastness potentially daunting even discouraging. How can any one country especially a small one make a difference? How can any one of us meaningfully act to make a difference? Energy efficiency and climate action are inextricably linked. Using less energy and using it more efficiently is the most cost effective way to combat climate change. Efficiency is about using the limited resources more responsibly and more economically. It's not just doing things in a different way, it's a different way of thinking. We all have a huge task and we are surrounded by some of the unique challenges that we have here in Ireland. The national climate mitigation plan was agreed by government and published last July. It was considered in the context of the first full day cabinet meeting on climate and climate related issues. This was a significant move by government it was the first full day cabinet meeting on a single policy topic for several years. The mitigation plan represents a concerted whole of government approach to reducing Ireland's greenhouse gas emissions. The next wave of energy policy drivers will come through the EU's clean energy package published last year. In this package the European Commission highlights the importance of ensuring that the move to a clean energy system will benefit all Europeans by reaping their tangible benefits of access to more secure, clean and competitive energy. The energy systems of the future require the creation of a significantly more responsive system a system that will meet the needs of micro generation. Energy supply companies must be prepared to combine supply and demand and offer services and products that people use willingly. I look forward to studying in detail the ESP's report being launched today Ireland's low carbon future dimensions of a solution. I welcome the factor that states an uptake in existing technologies such as heat pumps and electric vehicles will make significant inroads into decarbonising our energy system. It also looks at how the role of the electricity system will change over the coming decades and focus in particular on how we can make the adjustments necessary to decarbonise our energy system. I welcome this analysis and will help to perform the development of the National Energy and Climate Plan 2021-2030 as part of the new clean energy package currently being finalised over the coming days in Brussels. Community-led electricity and energy projects offer real opportunity for local economic growth. Better energy community scheme funded by my department and administered through the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland is an example of a government project to revitalise communities. This has brought hundreds of communities together, community groups together to take control of their energy usage and make the system work for them with lower bills, warmer homes and local jobs. I am announcing today that the scheme will continue next year bigger and better than ever before. I have secured 28 million euro for the scheme next year. This is a significant budget increase and marks a new record level of funding for community energy. There are incentives for communities that focus on clean and renewable energy. Every application that incorporates solely renewable energy will receive bonus points at the project evaluation stage. Further bonus marks will be awarded for those projects that meet exceptionally high air quality standards. Already more than 100 community groups have agreed to become a sustainable energy community. In partnership agreement with the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland. I am giving a guarantee to community groups today that every single group that agrees to a partnership agreement with the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland will be guaranteed funding for their local energy project. If you can provide the local knowledge, time and people, the government will support you with mentoring, energy expertise and guaranteed funding to support your local energy projects. Achieving a low carbon energy future requires an understanding of the reasons behind why people are not yet fully engaged with energy saving. This understanding is a fundamental part of schemes and programmes that encourage behavioural change. This year I secured funding to establish a behavioural economics unit within the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland. This unit is focused on examining how to influence people's behaviour to evidence-based programmes. This is being closely monitored and evaluated and the results will be used in a measurable way to get better target energy efficiency grant schemes that my department funds. Just as Ardnir Crosha nearly 90 years ago in building Ardnir Crosha we unlocked the potential of a young country. Broadband will unlock the potential today of Europe's youngest population. It will facilitate innovation, support ideas, faster creativity and help ensure the viability of communities in a globalised world. A key social, economic and political priority for me is broadband and delivering on the national broadband plan in particular. This plan will play an integral role in revitalising businesses and communities across provincial towns and rural Ireland. Smarter use of electricity of energy by is all will go hand in hand with the rollout of high-speed broadband across the country. We all know that the big growth area in technology today is the internet of things. That is connecting ordinary everyday items like cookers and kettles to the internet. There are 6,500 million items connected to the internet today. By 2020 that figure will be 50,000 million items. That's 600 new appliances connected to the internet every second between now and 2020. That provides us with huge potential to turn on and off our heating systems remotely to make smarter use of energy to create smarter homes. Broadband is the essential connection that allows people to take action to deliver efficiency. The recent announcement of the new delivery plan for smart meters is welcome. It's a phased rollout of around 2.3 million electricity smart meters that will be installed by electricity ESB networks in homes and businesses nationwide replacing old mechanical meters. This will lead to greater energy efficiency by empowering people with the information and control about their own energy use. I believe that smart meters and high speed broadband will lead to a profound change in our behaviour in terms of how and when we consume energy in our homes and in our communities. The energy markets are changing and greater accessibility to alternative low carbon intensive energy sources will present opportunities for householders and businesses to make more sustainable energy choices. The greatest problems facing humanity may be global scale but their solutions are local and the key to their implementation is personal. We are all called to be deciders, implementers, change makers and not passive observers. Goromila Mahogat. Thank you very much minister for taking the time to be with us here today. I appreciate it. To successfully complete Ireland's journey to a low carbon future it's necessary that policy goes hand in hand with utility business model changes. Our final speaker in this session the chief executive of the ESP is going to outline ESP's vision for a low carbon future. Good afternoon everybody. Just listening to the minister picking up on a couple of themes that are very relevant to our day here today. Pulling emphasis on community, on customer engagement and employment creation. As we kind of reduce our dependency on important fossil fuels the potential to create employment in new areas linked with the low carbon transition and the energy system of the future and of course the linkage between broadband the internet of things and how that all comes together in the new future so that was very very interesting. So thank you minister and we very much appreciate you being here today. I suppose that Gerald Fleming's presentation has already demonstrated climate change presents very very real and present threat to humanity and the global effects are already evident and in fact as we've seen most recently in Ireland climate change is impacting on societies whose storms flooding and water shortages and the disruption of plants, animals and fisheries. In ESB we recognise that our activities, the activities of the utility sector are contributing to the problem. Electricity generation accounts for 20% of carbon emissions in Ireland but this is on a downward trajectory. Since 1992 the carbon trajectory, the carbon intensity of electricity generation in Ireland has halved as high carbon emitting plans have been replaced by renewable and lower carbon alternatives. ESB has invested significantly in electricity networks to enable this to happen connecting over 3,000 megawatts of onshore wind onto the system and this has enabled more than 27% of electricity to be generated from wind last year. This is the second highest penetration of wind in Europe. Over time the carbon emissions from electricity will make a bless and less of our national carbon inventory thanks to effective policy measures that today are driving innovation and change in the sector. Existing policy measures will completely eliminate carbon from electricity generation by 2050. But this will not go far enough. Over the past few years the Minister and his officials have identified the targets and the policies that will help to drive Ireland's low carbon future and this has culminated in the publication of a white paper in 2015 which set out a vision for reducing energy emissions by 80 to 95% by 2050 and full decarbonisation thereafter. In effect what this actually means that between now and 2050 and this is quite a staggering challenge that Ireland must reduce its carbon emissions from energy from 38 million tonnes to 6 million tonnes. That is the scale of the energy challenge the decarbonisation challenge for Ireland and in that time our population will go up by 30% and we'll have a million more cars on the roads and another half a million more houses. We in ESB we've been seeking to understand what these targets actually mean in practical terms and what options are available for Ireland to achieve them and to gain an independent and objective view of this we engage international consultancy for Empyre to work with us in analysing existing roadmaps and to identify possible technologies that will allow Ireland to reach its carbon reduction targets and together we've developed a dimension what we call a dimensions a report and it's the dimensions of a solution for Ireland that prioritises investment towards those areas that will have the greatest impact on energy emissions and in the shortest possible timeframe. Through this process we've attempted to show a technically feasible and a practical pathway to a very different energy future one where air quality is significantly better where people live more comfortable and convenient lives and where a mix of low carbon and renewable technologies are used to generate sustainable electricity. In our vision of the future chimneys will no longer feature in new houses and cars will no longer have tailpipes. In developing a road map for Ireland we looked at the probable shape of a low carbon energy system in 2050 using technologies that exist today that's important because we're in the investment time horizon now for 2050 so it's important that we focus on technologies that exist today and we considered and this is important also how we minimise the risk of stranding assets as important as we make these investments that we minimise the risk of those investments subsequently becoming stranded. So it's a series of low regret options and in particular we looked at potential solutions for transport and heating and electricity generation sectors which together make up over 50% of our carbon emissions and two very clear winners surface from this analysis both of which will deliver immediate and long term solutions to Ireland's carbon reduction challenge. Heat pumps and electric vehicles by 2050 we envisage at a meeting our target 60% of all households will have a heat pump and electric vehicles will account for 60% of new car sales. At about 75% efficiency electric vehicles are treated times more efficient than internal combustion engines and heat pumps are treated four times more efficient than the most efficient domestic heating boilers. Even with our current electricity generation mix they can reduce carbon and improve air quality now. As electricity generation continues on this trajectory towards zero carbon further reductions in emissions will then accrue. Both technologies are proven they are available today and they are capable of halting the growth in our carbon inventory. We have the potential to give Ireland an early start in two of Ireland's most carbon intensive sectors transport and heating and this is a problem that is unique to Ireland which together account for over one third of our national carbon emissions. The technology options to replace coal and other carbon intensive source of generation are less clear cut. What is clear cut though is that we will have to have zero carbon alternatives heat and coal generation by the end of the next decade. No one technology has emerged as replacement for this large scale thermal generation and it is very unlikely that one single solution will prevail. All existing options CCS at gas solar onshore wind offshore wind ocean and biomass all have limitations in terms of affordability and energy security. High efficiency gas will provide an important transition to meet interim targets while keeping the lights on and will enable more renewables to come on stream. However beyond 2030 we anticipate that a combination of high efficiency CCS gas onshore wind solar and biomass will be required to fully displace carbon from the system. Our analysis draws from extensive expertise both from within the company and from outside and we hope that this will provide useful insights for policy makers and for the wider energy sector. A synopsis is contained in your packs and the full version of the report will be available from today on our website. Within ESB the report in to Ireland's low carbon future has informed our own strategic direction out to 2030 which is anchored in our ambition to create a brighter future for our customers and for society by leading the transition to a low carbon future. Over this period we will completely transform our generation portfolio renewing older thermal plant with a mixture of renewables and high efficiency gas to cut the carbon intensely from our fleet by 50% provide flexible backup to enable more renewables to come on stream. By 2030 about 40% of our generation will be from renewable sources including hydro on an offshore wind, solar and biomass. Margaret Serre is the managing director of ESB networks already covered our networks programme this morning. It's another essential building block in our strategy by improving network intelligence and completing the role out of smart technologies and smart meters we will support much more renewables on the system and facilitate tariff innovation by suppliers and using smart technologies will harness the potential of the distributed energy resource including battery storage demand side response and embedded generation electric vehicles and heat networks to facilitate new services and create a more sustainable energy system. We will invest significantly in our electricity networks including new smart technologies to enable the widespread electrification of heating and transport and to put the customer right at the centre of a reimagined electricity system. As we've already heard over the course of today the willingness of customers to engage with new technologies and become more active participants in this new energy landscape will be a key determinant in achieving our ambition to achieve a carbon free energy system. Also the ability and the willingness and the motivation of the industry to engage with customers and to gauge what we've seen over the course of the various discussions this morning with customers and put customers at the centre stage and understand the needs of customers will be critical. So we're working to develop insight driven products and services that address the needs of customers and for example our smart energy services business is partnering with large energy users to help manage electricity use more efficiently reducing their consumption and carbon output significantly and as well as delivering paid for services back to the grid there are many similar innovations happening across the company. Implementing this strategy will be driven by government policy and will collaborate with stakeholders and partners across the industry including many here in the room today to realise this shared vision of a low carbon society. ESB was created 90 years ago by people who had a vision for society and who believed in the power of electricity as an agent for social and economic progress and for change. This ambition and intrinsic motivation to serve society continues to drive us in ESB today and to shape our values. As we look ahead to 2027 our 100th anniversary and beyond we're motivated by a potential to create a brighter energy future one where electricity will play a much bigger role and where our deep understanding of customers will drive innovation and lead to a seamless integrated and outstanding customer experience. Our ambition is that from 20% of the problem today we are looking forward for a future where electricity will be over 50% of the solution. Thank you. Thank you very much Pat. Pat is staying with us on the panel discussion that we will be having after our next session. This will be the third session of our take charge conference and we're going to our speakers are going to explore the opportunities for electrification that our journey to a low carbon future opens up. Now as you can see on the programme this session will have a panel discussion on electrification as well and we invite you again to submit your questions to Slido at any point during the session and we look forward to using them in a discussion later on. They were most useful to me in the morning sessions and they certainly brought me into areas that I wouldn't have thought of personally but I know that are very much of interest and importance to you so please do use Slido again to make sure that we actually have the best possible conversation. So if I could ask our two speakers maybe to join us on stage for this thing and I'll introduce them in a second. The first person who is going to be talking to us with a presentation on energy efficiency which has become a crucial element of our transition to a low carbon future Paul Kenny, the chief executive of the Tipperary Energy Agency is a leader in retrofitting and he's not going to give us a presentation on the innovative ways in which we can save energy and money in our homes so to talk about the energy efficient home please welcome Paul Kenny, the chief executive of the Tipperary Energy Agency Matt. OK so Matt's done the introduction everyone has a home so this presentation is going to be relevant for everyone and maybe not all the graphs are but I hope to maybe outline where we're all going in our homes and outline some of the things that we've done to maybe demonstrate where we're going with the energy efficient and renewably powered home and I think it's worth just looking at the top right hand picture that's Pat Rabbit installing some insulation on a wall in a social house in Tipperary and we very much focused a lot of our efforts in some of the lower income houses for a number of years but we really struggled with the idea of what's powering these homes and we really felt that the oil and gas that we were using to power our homes and in many cases solid fuel and peat was not something we wanted to continue with so I try and throw one slide up on every presentation I gave about climate change because we tend not to talk about it a lot and we have obviously had a speaker here but some of those images that you'll see on the screen are kind of dawning reality of where we are in both Ireland as a position but also the human race in terms of climate change it has become much more urgent and we really know we need to get out of fossil fuel use by the end of kind of 2040 for electricity and heat so Ireland needs to really get on board with that and we've seen some reports recently about Ireland's position in climate change on a global scale and also in the renewable directive as well negotiations so it's important that I think we move on and we take charge of the future because we're not there yet so a little bit of our journey to deep retrofit we've completed up to 2013 we had our 2015 we completed about 1500 homes what we would consider a shallow retrofit so attic insulation wall insulation, boilers, heating controls and so on and what we found in this graph on the bottom right which was a real time monitoring of 100 homes that we did under the SERV project which was a mixture of European and SEAI funding is these are retrofitted homes so on the right hand side you would have C1s, B3s and on the left hand side you would have had A3s, B1s and we really felt that even a reasonably well retrofitted home was still using a lot less energy than predicted and what does that mean it means it's cold so we were monitoring interior temperatures and we could see very clearly that the temperature correlation was the same as the fuel use so our what we told was quite a good retrofit which would be the standard of the current better energy homes was not sufficient, it was not a sufficiently deep retrofit so we came up with this idea of the near zero energy building retrofit which our marketing communications person renamed to super homes thankfully and what we tried to do with that was figure out the solution for every building and put a package together that was supporting the homeowner to make the decision to get to an A3 retrofit we pitched the idea to SEAI and they have funded super homes in terms of grants 35-50% over the last number of years and have been very supportive about how we demonstrate what this A-rated transition for a home is and I'm delighted to hear that there will be an announcement in six weeks about oil and gas boilers, that's great so when we looked at it what are the CO2 reduction options for a home we've got the a house apart passive house retrofit where everything is done to the home take out the ceiling take out the floor external insulation new windows and so on and so forth and roughly the case studies would say about 80,000 euros additional cost on top of a generational retrofit now undoubtedly a fantastic retrofit and if you have to do a new ceiling and you have to do a new floor that's what you should do, there's absolutely no doubt about it however we thought that's not really going to wash for all of our homes we need to have something in between and we came up with the idea of really getting moderately good insulation, moderately good air tightness moderately good fabric performance getting a really low cost heating system and renewable heating system with an air source heat pump and we really struggled at the beginning to figure out how to do that because most people in Ireland in heating said air source heat pumps won't work in Ireland yet 20% of Sweden uses air source heat pumps about 80% of Japanese homes are heated with heat pumps it was just a question figure out how and we very much did figure out how and off we went and now figured out the technical ways how do we get people to do it we looked at some of the things that have happened across Europe there's a great one in Picardie where it's a public service for energy efficiency we also looked at the Green Deal and what worked and what didn't work and some German ones and really there's a number of barriers there that people in the audience will probably identify one or two of those barriers as to the reasons why they have not retrofitted their homes and when we put our package together and we presented it to to some of the people from SAI and the department they really felt that that kind of guidance process through deep retrofit was really really important for home owners and that's how we bring customers on board that's how we get people to go from I don't know what to do I'd like to be environmentally conscious to I now have a 25% of people on board so I now have a 2050 ready home and you know we put together this infographic just to kind of explain it so insulation solar panels on the roof if you want it an air source heat pump a ventilation system to make sure we have nice clean and healthy air and you know that's more or less the package but one of the I suppose leading European thinkers on energy performance the Dutch Green MEP Claude Humes he always goes on about this one stop shop and it's not about the insulation industry having insulation suppliers and the heat pump industry having heat pump suppliers and the solar industry having solar suppliers we need to bring it all together and guide a home owner through so super homes is more none of the technical things that we do in a super home are anything reasonably hard what we're trying to do really is is to use guidance and drive people through the process so that they come out the other end in a position where they have a very warm house and very low carbon house very cheap house to run and all together are very satisfied and we have incredible levels of satisfaction one woman told me after spending 15,000 this is the best money I've ever spent in my life if I didn't save a penny I would be delighted now she's going to save about three grand a year now if you just couple those two things together now what is the downside so we've really cheap heat lovely comfortable homes it's capital intensive it does cost money to do and that's really the challenge and we're trying to work around some of those challenges and really super homes is a collaboration between ourselves the funders in terms of SAI ESP in terms of development and helping us develop the process and ourselves in terms of the delivery team on the ground we have five engineers working hard to help people through this process so just a couple of quick slides and results before and after BER most of the houses are getting to half way between A2 and A3 so about 67 is the average from about 220 so a D2 in terms of the carbon intensity so I think it's important to maybe look at obviously a heat pump is driven by the electricity and that's based on the fuel mix that's currently going into the electricity grid so if we take an oil home it's about by the time the oil goes through the boiler and comes out the far side about 300 grams of carbon dioxide per kilowatt hour of heat into the house if we take a gas boiler marginally better obviously in terms of carbon emissions at about 240 and a heat pump in today's world with our current generation mix in 2015 would be about 150 so a 50% cut so this is outside obviously of bringing down the heat load in the house from insulation measures however if we take the 2035 air grid study for what our electricity mix will be in 2035 and we apply that to the home it is about 35 grams so that's a 90% cut so these homes even after the energy efficiency which is probably taking 30 or 40% of the heat load down you're taking another 90% of the remaining 65% so significantly lower carbon and 2050 ready in terms of cost so obviously we're bringing down the amount of kilowatt hours for each home to use but the kilowatt hours they do use using about 55% day rate, 45% night rate with today's electricity prices just under 3.5 cent per kilowatt hour and that's very very similar in terms of that is being driven by the efficiency of a heat pump just like the cost per kilometer of an EV is a fraction of a diesel car it's the same it's the thermal efficiency the laws of physics in the unit of a heat pump that really drives down the cost so what you have there in that case is people can afford to use a few more kilowatt hours it's pretty low carbon and you end up with a very high thermal comfort level in the house you have a very high satisfaction rating because they can do that for probably on average about 400 euros for a 200 square meter house so we're moving that on our next stage is super homes 2 and I'm reliably informed someone is writing a research proposal for super homes 3 which I don't want to get into just yet because I haven't got my head around super homes 2 this is funded by the IARC which is a collaboration of the department of energy and jobs and it's to look at how we can use heat pumps as part of the future smart grid so obviously we want to try and optimise the heat pump in the house whatever PV is available in the house to try and obviously use the sun when the sun is shining so even in the winter time we'll have a little bit of excess solar electricity this afternoon because you're all here and not in your house and to switch on the heat pump and dump that heat multiply by 3.5 dump that solar electricity multiply by 3.5 and into your home obviously then we want to look at pay as you go and time of use time of use of the heat pump and using that to load shift heating from when the grid is not when the grid is is at high utilization to when the grid is at low utilization and we've installed some smart meters and we're working with networks to try and figure out how to balance all of those so really the last slide I have is just in terms of a call to action I'm told that you should never do a presentation or a business case without asking people to do something when they walk away I think it's important the state listens to the citizens assembly and takes charge and I'm delighted to hear ESB's future vision of how they will take charge of their part of that pie. We're currently incentivizing oil and gas boilers which is great to hear they're going to be phased out the fossil fuels are still going into new build about 35% of homes are going in with heat pumps we need to make that 100% we need to make sure we have financing piling into this place we need to make sure that society is clear on what needs to happen and what the future should look like so we need to see demonstration and you know I think the electricity as a future as a clean future you know we do still need to see generation we need to see smart meters that communicate with people and that was my question earlier on and lots of other stuff that were in development and demonstration about making sure that the smart clean electric future is clear to all of society and not just in the heads of some of the people in the room so that's 46 seconds over so apologies Matt that's all I have to say thank you very much thank you very much Paul is one of the best known names in the global energy sector Michael Liebreich is the founder of Bloomberg New Energy Finance and he's now a senior contributor there and it's relied upon by energy leaders around the world he also sits on the board of transport for London although he's not speaking on its behalf today what he is going to do for us is draw on his incredible background to provide us with insights on the key trends in energy finance and the electrification of public transport so would you please welcome Michael Liebreich thank you very much it's an honour and a privilege to be back here this is actually the third time that I've addressed the IIEA and I thought I'd start when I was preparing my remarks today by going back to see what did I actually say the first time I spoke to IIEA and I came across this very striking chart that you can see there 2012 five years ago and I said this they were in the process of a fundamental re-engineering of the world's energy industry around low carbon more secure solutions and architecture right what have we been hearing about all of today essentially that it will cost trillions I didn't mean just here in Ireland you'll be pleased to hear it will take decades and I don't mean just here in Ireland and it will be funded largely by the capital markets and I think one of the themes here today has been the role of the state or semi-state organisation but it's very clear that around the world the cost of this transition or in fact these transitions because energy I'm also talking about the energy used in transportation the cost is so substantial it is not in the gift of governments to give and then I left with a question five years ago I said the question is how fast will this happen so I thought we could usefully sort of report back and see well what do we think how do we think we're doing since that time five years ago so five years ago I also showed this chart this was the money flowing into now this was a definition of clean energy which we've used for now I think 13 or 14 years so it's renewable energy energy efficiency carbon capture and storage not that anybody's doing any of it but also power storage smart grid all of the things that an investor can invest in in order to accelerate or to take part in this transition it doesn't include nuclear or natural gas not because they won't be important but this is just the definition we started using so we get a nice clean signal about how much money and where is it going so that was what we saw five years ago this very rapid growth from 60 billion to around 300 in fact 317 billion nearly a third of a trillion dollars that growth between 2004 and the latest data when I came this for that first time here to Dublin and it was 2011 317 billion so what have we seen since then well when I came back three years ago that was where we were so you could say well looks like it might have stalled still 315 billion bounces around a bit and where have we been since then maybe three more years including our estimate for the end the out turn for this year and you can see it's broadly speaking around the same 300 billion mark now for eight years so the financing of the transition to clean energy appears to have stalled but what you see is the amount the installed capacity of renewable energy over that period has continued to grow so if you look at that historical period now of 14 13 14 years you can very clearly see that there are two periods first period was spend more get more and you could call it subsidise more get more if you wanted more clean energy you just paid more but then there's this second period where you actually spend the same and you get double and that's going to continue we believe out into the future and of course the reason for that is that the costs of renewable energy technologies across the board have been falling and falling very dramatically during that second period here's another chart that I showed that first time I came here it's very brave it's very hard to remember how brave it was to say that the best wind farms onshore wind cost no more per kilowatt hour of electricity than new coal or than gas if the price of gas was $6 per million BTU this was absolutely not accepted by mainstream media I got a lot of incoming flags I know that's ridiculous it can't possibly be true everybody knows that renewable energy is in the words of many members of government in the UK at the time and since ludicrously expensive it's not called renewable energy it's called ludicrously expensive renewable energy so showing something like this was actually controversial now at the time you've got solar onshore wind offshore wind these are the world record prices these are the sort of Usain Bolt projects in their categories back in 2012 the best in the world $0.17 per kilowatt hour it's not that long ago 2012 it's really not that long ago and then onshore wind $0.8 offshore $0.17 if you just fast forward to 2015 then already solar there was a project in Abu Dhabi a lot of people thought it couldn't be delivered profitably it was a ridiculous price $0.5.84 onshore wind was then around $0.5 the best projects in the world and offshore $0.12 that's only two three years ago what happened since then that was when I was back the second time what happened then was this offshore wind $0.5 solar the world record down to $2.99 onshore wind down to $3 solar $2.91 $2.74 $2.69 onshore wind unsubsidised offshore wind not requiring a subsidy at 4.9 cents per kilowatt hour solar $1.79 it's a bit of a fake bit of a tailwind at that I think that's not quite the use in world record because there may have been some subsidies but around $0.02 let's call it and then onshore wind $0.02 so these are the world records and clearly we're not talking about solar photovoltaics in Ireland matching in any way the sorts of costs you'll see in Saudi Arabia or Abu Dhabi we've heard a little bit about the weather forecast for 2050 I don't think it's going to get quite that extreme but what we have seen is that those record prices within two three years tend to become the median prices for these projects around the world particularly if you look at onshore wind there's no reason to believe that in maybe not two three years maybe five years, maybe seven years but not longer than that those sorts of prices $0.02, $0.05 unsubsidised, these are unsubsidised prices should be achievable here in Ireland now it's all down to this thing I can't ever resist showing an experience curve and the reason I do this is that most energy economists are fundamentally resource economists they're into digging things out or extracting them from underground and what they do is they work out cost curves and marginal cost of extraction and then you get some depletion and you get dispatch curves and they're really good at that stuff the problem for them is that these technologies are manufacturing technologies they are material science technologies and they are information science technologies they have different economics they get cheaper the more you do they don't ever go up in cost the more you do the experience curve that we see in energy if you look at the Moore's law curve in semiconductors it's a variant or a special case of the same curve that we see in wind, solar and by the way we'll see one in batteries but it could be smart meters, anything all of these technologies so wind, you'll see that 19% every time the world doubles its experience in wind we'll see the cost coming down 19% in solar the most recent analysis from my colleagues at BNEF 24% to 28% one of the steepest experience curves I've seen in any industry and the reason is it's all about material science and then turbo charged with big data and analytics and digitisation so if you go back to the 2005 when I started New Energy Finance that's what a solar farm looked like it now looks like that and it's all optimised digitally and if you look at wind when I started New Energy Finance a 4 megawatt turbine was an absolute monster that was the biggest turbine that you could see they were only experimental at that time and then over the years intervening 7 megawatts 9 megawatts there nearly as tall as the Eiffel Tower and that very cheap offshore wind one of the reasons it's very cheap is this that's how tall it is that's the shard in London so my mum doesn't actually know what I do and I showed her this and she said that's very interesting she said but why would you build it in front of the shard so the other reason why this stuff has become cheap is because price signals matter businesses compete on whatever use whatever job you set whatever dimensions you set for them to compete whether it's tickets to Wimbledon or price competition that's what they do and when you go from feeding tariffs to reverse auctions they start to compete on price they want to win those auctions and so you can see that immediately around the world around a one third drop in price when you go from feeding tariff to reverse auctions and then over time 60% drop as companies sharpen their pencils compete on price price signals matter how you structure policy policy matters so what do we see now we see coal around the world having peaked it's not just renewable energy of course it's also natural gas in the US we'll see and it's energy efficiency but coal has peaked so it's a major innovation from the minister not this is not an activist and this is not the minister of renewable energy he was also the minister of coal and renewable energy but also mines Piyush Goyal actually he's now the minister of railways in India it's a massive promotion to be promoted from energy to railways but the cost of solar power is now cheaper than coal in this country so very mainstream has now caught up with what I was saying five years ago that renewable energy is competitive and in fact now renewable energy sits at the bottom of the cost stack the EU so this is the top 10 coal using countries in the EU and tragically there's only one country which has really significantly amongst these top 10 that has really significantly reduced coal use historically already and that is one of Europe as it used to be called the UK and this is the history of coal use in the UK the plan is to be completely off it by 2025 I think at the latest but probably 2023 and you can see there the industrial revolution so it grows you can see the general strikes you can see it coming down you can see the 1984 miners strike and then you can see the end of coal and it has to be the future history of coal around the world if we're to stay within that climate envelope that we've heard about from a number of speakers today and thank you for, you have a slide on it I don't but I'll give you credit for reminding the audience that there is this climate emissions budget or emissions envelope within which we're told we have to operate this is what coal needs to look like in Germany the energy vendor central they've decided to shut nuclear and not shut coal so the energy vendor has de facto by the fact, by the output prioritised the shutting of nuclear over the climate they absolutely hate when I tell them that but it's absolutely clear because if you look at there you see the power sector emissions they have been flat for around 20 years and the negotiations one of the reasons why the negotiations for the the government after the most recent elections one of the reasons why they failed is that the two parties the FTP and the Greens couldn't agree on rapidly shutting coal we have to stop trying to find ways around it we have to shut coal to fit within this planetary boundary and also all the targets at Paris and so on now interestingly enough it will get shut anyway and the reason is this is our forecast for the EUETS price remember the EUETS which we sort of tend to forget because it's at such low levels 5, 7 euros it will go up the prices will go up unless there are explicit extra programs to shut coal in European countries the choices are really to let the EUETS do it or to have a measured plan with transition for those communities affected and so on US so this is the US generation mix there you can see black is coal and it was forced out this was the so called war on coal where did it go as I mentioned to natural gas you can see the grey it went to efficiency and also to renewables coal has been losing to all three of them now President Trump we all know I think he said that President Trump digs coal was the phrase used during the election and he's made a big put a big stake in the ground about helping coal miners find jobs and to restore the fortunes of the US coal industry and here you have secretary Perry who has been trying to support coal fired power stations in the US he first produced a study to show how awful renewables were and how they were damaging the resilience of the grid the answer he got he didn't like so he sort of ignored it and then he's given an instruction to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission as a first step it is particularly urgent to prevent premature retirement of the resources that have critical attributes and everybody's trying to work out what the critical attributes are in terms of resilience and they're actually the critical attributes are basically huge piles of coal but it's really not going to work this is Texas which is not covered by FERC in fact there's a FERC will have that might have some impact in one of the markets in the US the so-called PGM market where there's all of coal but as you go around the US whether it's California you find that actually this rule the huge piles of coal will be ineffective these are three power stations that have announced closure since the announcement of that rule these ones in Texas you can see that they add together to be around 5 gigawatts but the coal closures are continuing so this is Scott Pruitt the EPA administrator and what he said is the war on coal is over and you know what he's absolutely right coal lost so where are we we've got at the moment in the energy mix for all the people saying that renewables are insignificant in primary energy primary energy mainly measures waste I don't know why people talk about it this is the electricity mix wind and solar today or actually I think that was 2004 no it was published in 2014 the IEA forecast that by 2040 it'll be 16% BNF 34% so we're more bullish than the international energy agency and the big forecasters I actually think this is not quite up to date IEA has just published their world energy outlook 2017 and I think the 16 is closing on our 34 I think it's now up to 24% so around a quarter of electricity in 2040 according to the IEA and 34% a third according to BNF is going to be wind and solar globally variable renewables one of the reasons why we're more bullish is the idea of tipping points so we are currently in what we call tipping point one tipping point one says we need more electricity either we're a developing country growing or maybe we're a developed country that are swapping out I'm trying not to use the word money point but a coal fired power station and we need to replace that demand and the cheapest thing we can do as we've seen is wind or solar the cheapest thing already for incremental now the grid has to be able to we'll talk about variability in a second but there's also tipping point two and tipping point two is where you say I've got a CCGT power station I've got a perfectly mid life say coal fired power station maybe a nuclear power station but it's actually cheaper to build new wind and solar take the hit on the capital cost have no fuel costs and shut down the existing generating capacity on the economics now if you think about that in terms of accessible market now you're not just going for incremental power or where you shut something down because it's end of life now all of your power demand is potentially in play that's the second tipping point what it translates into is it says that on the generating side we're looking at 10 trillion dollars that's going to be spent globally between now and 2040 and around 6 trillion more than 6 trillion will be spent on wind and solar huge flows of capital into wind and solar we expect some depending on technology on countries geostrategic ambitions so hydro gas for flexibility not for bulk power because it's not competitive for bulk power it is competitive for flexibility and relatively little in coal and that boom in investment I was delighted when I checked into my hotel I found this magazine by the bedside table I can see that this boom in investment is also going to come to Ireland here comes the solar gold rush tremendous of course it was pouring with rain as I went to my hotel so I wasn't entirely convinced by this and of course what you don't want is a solar gold rush what you want is the sort of considered approach which integrates these resources in a rational way now what that does though whether it's a quarter or a third of variable renewables it really changes the structure the structure of supply now we did this for Germany I didn't have time to do this for Ireland but I'm sure somebody has and if not then they will go back to the past comfortable past Germany you can see there you've got sort of base load and peak long lunch hours take Friday afternoon off very simple currently if you look at how much wind and solar the wind is then in blue and the solar is in yellow it's a much more difficult thing to manage much more dynamism and you may have to intervene and you've got more software and you have to actually invest and you have to be more skilled and more dynamic in your management of the grid but look what happens in the future this is based on Germany's plans for ongoing renewable investment and you start to see things like no base load you can't have base load a plant you can't switch off is as difficult to manage as a solar or wind plant that you can't rely on causes you as much trouble you've got these huge ramp rates morning and night or when the wind starts when the wind stops and you've got to have interconnections because the excess capacity in windy sunny times is not a bug it's a feature so you better use that power you better be on good terms with your neighbours because you want to get money for that excess power another way of putting it is be nice to your neighbours you never know when you want them to act like a battery if that's not scary enough I'll show you this one California I did the same exercise in fact I didn't a brilliant chap from LM Power did and you can see there that's the first week of May 2012 that's 2017 and over there you can see if they just do what they're planning in terms of renewable capacity and renewable penetration to 50% and so on then that's what they're going to get that looks like an amazing battery market because you've got to deal with that amount of solar on the system that's probably not going to be Ireland because it's not going to be solar you're going to have a lot more wind but the issues, how you manage it those issues are coming home in a big way in this time frame now how do you do that you have to balance the grid one thing I would say is you've got to balance it right across the year you've got to work around demand response flexibility in batteries that we've heard about is great for the kind of shorter maybe seconds, minutes, hours, maybe days but don't forget and that's maybe a topic for some other session don't forget you've got seasonal variations as well and that's much harder to know then you have to do long distance interconnections, chemical storage some other solutions for seasonal one of the I'm going to talk about two things that will really help with this balancing one will be vehicles the other digitisation in fact you need both but luckily they're both very powerful trends when I spoke in 2015 I showed this I said look I'm really bullish about electric vehicles but let's just be sensible that that you can see there is the fleet of internal combustion vehicles that drawn to scale in 2015 was electric vehicles luckily I was right I think we've seen this enormous growth in electric vehicles the situation has completely transformed we're now all very bullish about electric vehicles and so now I can update this chart I've updated it and it looks like that however we are very bullish we've got much better data and understanding now on the battery experience curve here you can see battery prices down 70% in the last five or six years they're going to go down another 70% between now and 2030 they'll get to the point where not just total cost of ownership but actual showroom sticker price electric vehicles will be cheaper than non-electric sticker price you just want to walk out of it or drive out of your showroom in a vehicle and electric will be cheaper why are very simple not that many moving parts the only expensive thing is the battery and the battery price is doing that air quality we've seen a number of cities around Europe banning internal combustion engines because of air quality this is London there's the shard you can see show this to my mum but the air quality issue is not going away and it's not going away until we take action and it is about coal diesel and then some other things and action is being taken and countries are following their cities mayors are taking the lead but countries we now see banning or threatening to ban or internal combustion pure internal combustion car sales Netherlands Norway by 2025 France UK 2040 India China 2030 and so on so policy makers see which way the wind is blowing and they are backing this trend largely for air quality reasons also industrial strategy in 2008 if you wanted to buy an electric car you had a choice of two it was either a Tesla Roadster or a Golf Buggy 2009 a bit more choice these are different types of electric types of cars from SUVs at the top and sports cars 2010 11 12 13 14 15 15 and by 2020 very extensive range these cars will make internal combustion cars look very silly in old fashion frankly this chart is out of date I can't keep up with the announcements Volkswagen, Volvo, Daimler etc etc and it doesn't include models available in India or China there are over 250 models worldwide by 2020 and so we are going to see these cars will be sold more than 50% of global sales by 2040 based on those trends the fleet will be more than one third electric so one third renewable electricity one third electric vehicles around us in the fleet and by the way the whole economy will be one third more energy efficient more energy productive there will be charging points you can see there the rate of growth charging points and there will be batteries there is a lot of talk about bottlenecks there are some short term bottlenecks lithium and cobalt but this is what we saw when solar took off some of you in the room will remember the silicon bottleneck the silicon bottleneck there was not enough silicon to go around all the manufacturers and we saw the price spike we were tracking this and the price has spiked from up to 400 and then of course they dropped there was no inherent shortage of silicon there's no inherent shortage of lithium or cobalt or the other metals and we're going to see a similar sorts of spikes maybe not as high or whatever but by 2040 not an issue if anybody thinks it's going to be fuel cells let me show this this is drawn to scale because I like doing that you know electric vehicle sales that is fuel cell vehicle sales if you need a magnifying glass I'll send you the charts but there's a reason why the fuel cell is a bad solution for short distance transport and the reason is this if you have electricity this is called wind to wheel if you have that electricity and then you have to convert it into DC and do some things and whatever you put it in a battery and you use it if you have that power in your vehicle you're using 60% of the energy content if you use that electricity and you convert it you use it for electrolysis into hydrogen and then you have to compress it and store it and move it and compress it and store it and move it and then you have to stick it in a fuel cell even if it's a 60% efficient fuel cell you're going to get out 30% if you have electricity and you want to go somewhere stick it in a battery and go somewhere don't do some chemical conversions hydrogen might have a role in that seasonal storage or some other things but it isn't in short distance transport short to medium distance now transportation I was asked to talk about transportation in the city I'm just very conscious I'm very low on time but these are buses same thing is happening transport for London I think in London we think we've got the largest fleet of electric buses in Europe I believe that's true we've got 120 I think now this is China sales of electric buses last year 140,000 we are simply not none of us in Europe we are nowhere near the cutting edge on this stuff I was just recently in Turkey they have three manufacturers this one on the left really is a monster it's a double articulated electric bus so this is taking off around the world in the US they have a company called Proterra electric buses are I don't want to say they are the solution because I have to say somewhat impartial we have some fuel cell buses as well in London but this is happening this is the direction of travel digitisation really powerful trends I don't think I need to go through them we all know something is happening it's ubiquitous chips and sensors ubiquitous communications ubiquitous processing in the cloud but also at the edge of the network and now machine learning and bots and big data analytics and so on something is happening and it's transforming energy transport and infrastructure we already see the fruits of that in services Google Maps go to a strange city walk to places because of Google Maps you didn't used to be able to do that that is changing transport you've got their city mapper even voter phone is involved mobile phone companies because they can help providing data on where your phone is and so on you've got ways way finder helping disabled people to move around in ways they couldn't previously we're already seeing this this is happening now it's transformative ride hailing all traders are battle between taxis and the dreaded Uber and Lyft and etc this is the reality in the US look at that, that's the number of licensed taxis and Uber and Lyft what's happening is that these services are unlocking new demand for personal driver enabled travel again transformational and not going to stop I'm very proud of this one because we've just sold our contactless payment system we're going to see an integration of energy and transport and finance by the way if any of those go down cyber or whatever we're in trouble but we've sold our contactless payment system to New York and now to Boston as of a couple of days ago and we're going to see innovations integrating infrastructure energy, transport and so on blockchain we're already seeing some experiments in shipping in trucking, supply chain, Walmart customs, who knows hopefully that may be part of the solution to the very pressing issue on the border here on the island so we're going to see this sort of innovation and then of course this I don't call it the evolution of car of transport I call it the evolution of driver technology that's current generation and that's the future generation they actually call it the auto chauffeur it's a bit cheeky and this is the big topic it will reinforce the trends to electric transportation because it allows cars to go off and be charged and come back without wasting anybody's time you no longer worry about the charge taking 20 minutes or half an hour in a few miles away if you've got the Nvidia drive which costs nothing at the incremental level I'm a bit skeptical about driverless and I'll do this quickly you can see there that's the number of miles between interventions of the current generation of driverless data from California the average UK the average US human has a big shunt about once every 500,000 miles not once every 5,000 miles and if we give control to a bus driver or to a train or to an aeroplane we expect even more safety not a factor of one or two or three Elon Musk talks about driverless being twice as safe 50 times is the sort of target that these systems need to achieve in total we're looking at technology that has to be 5,000 times better than today now that might take a year it might take two years, it might take ten years I'm somewhat skeptical about the time frame Uber has just announced it's bought 24,000 driverless Volvos for delivery 2019-21 presumably they believe that 2019-21 will see this technology mature enough to be released on the streets I remain to be convinced but the press release was very impressive and I worry about some of the things that don't sort of get talked about a lot what do you do when 20,000 people all say that they're going to watch Adele at the O2 who is fantastic by the way but they all want to go at the same time and all they've got is a pin and who allocates them to different drop off points and so on is that going to be the public authorities or is that going to somehow magically happen in the app or at the level of that NVIDIA board nobody knows algorithms that are individually incredibly smart and collectively incredibly dumb sounds perhaps like humans but there's no reason to believe that artificial humans will necessarily be smarter than real humans and then this issue when rich people have their cars drive around the block instead of parking parking is expensive and so you just say drive around while I have my meeting now these are problems that have to be solved and the authorities are thinking about because this transition to driverless electric it could be fantastic the electric bit will certainly help to manage that variability electrification not only is good for the climate the more of it you have the more you can do your demand response and use the power from your wind and your solar but this transition on the transport side can either be done in an extremely socially effective way inclusion and services for disabled elderly people who are not comfortable driving in cities or it can be done in such a way as to promote vast amounts of gridlock and a very poor outcome societally and how it plays out will actually be up to all of you in the audience and your colleagues in the equivalent transportation focused events thank you very much thank you very much Michael we are not going to have our discussion on the all electric forum but before we do so our third poll of the day please on Slido I want you to answer how many retrofit measures have you undertaken in your home is it A0 B1 to 2 C3 or 4 or D5 or more so give us your answers please and look at you over a third of you have done nothing I would have thought this was the audience I would have been doing five or more but there you go those are the answers coming up we are going to talk about the all electric how many have you done how many have I done I'm only asking questions around here anyway I'm fascinated Michael by what you said I just want to pick up the point to the end about the driverless cars because the speed of change going on is so fast and present I actually have come to believe in driverless cars which will all be electric in five to ten years and here is why back at the turn of the century just 1999 the Americans decided that they needed to put all of the satellites that they had in space with their nuclear capability for war on to a single mainframe computer system it was the biggest individual project ever done by the Americans at the time they spent a small fortune on it and they got everything into the one computer system the computing power in that system mae yna yw ddweud ar gyfer gyda'r cyfnod yn ymddangos ar gyfer teulu yma'r gyfer gydych chi'n gweld. Mae yna'r wneud hynny yw ddweud yw ddweud. Ymgyrch yn ymddangos ar y cyffredin yr wych yn gweld ymdag o'r cyffredin sydd wedi cael ei gweithio'r cyffredin. Ac efallai, mae'n gweithio, mae'n gweithio'r cyffredin yw'r cyffredin efallai 500 yn y byd, mae yna'r cyfrifiad lleol yw ddweud gan y byd o gael. So, i fawr, ond rydyn ni'n ddim yn ymgyrch i gael i ystafelloedd ar wahanolソFAC. B yn ddefnyddio'r cyflawn o'r cyd-tystiad cael eich cyd-tystiad. A customers ar gyfer y dywan maen nhw yn ôl, a ond ond ond ond yr hyn maen nhw, ond, ond ond ond yn gweld i'r regulat. Ond mae'n dweud y gallu'n gweithio'r ffordd yn daer o'r cyd-tystiad. a'r dyfodol yw'r wyliau gwneud o wneud cyfnod. Felly, oedd oedd o'r busau yn cyfnod o'i meddwl. Rydyn ni'n defyfiadol yn y dyfodol cyffredinol. Mae wneud bod yn gwneud nhw'n cael ei wneud, sy'n gweithio'r cyfnod i'r busau a'r ddublint o ran oed yn ddill. Mae'r tliffedau a'r ddliffedau i'r ddblint o'r ddliffedau. Rydyn ni'n 80% i ddliffedau i ddublint, sy'n cael ei ddliffedau i ddliffedau, ddweud eich cael 20% beth mae'n ystod ffaisol yn ei ddweud Gweithraethol y byddwyd y teulu'r hynny'n hwyl ei gydig? Ond y gallwch o'r ffaisol, a'r ddweud ac y ddweud a'r ddweud yn iawn gan fynd i dda'r cynnig? Mell y ffaisol y byddwyd yn ei ddweud ac mae gennyn nhw'n ei ddweud? Mae ydy'rechtyn yn ei ddweud. Mae eich rydyn ni, mae eich rydyn ni'n bwysig i gweld i gael y cwm, a'r wahanol yw'r systr. Yn ystod mae'n gallu cyffredig. Ond ydych chi'n cael y bydd y bydd yn ddwy'r ddechrau yn y rhan ond ei wneud y pethau busrwyth yn ei bryd yn y rhan. Rwy'n meddwl, roeddwn i'n bodi, roeddwn i'n meddwl croes. Roeddwn i'n meddwl croes, roeddwn i'n meddwl croes, roeddwn i'n meddwl croes, rhan oedd yn gweithio y 2018. yn 2018. First proposed in 1941, construction started in 2012, and now we're talking about Crossrail 3, another one, which presumably would take another 20 years to happen. If you can have large-scale vehicles at surface that can, because of this technology, move that close with very narrow lanes and so on, why do you need a rail infrastructure? But what you have to do is you have to make sure that you've got big, full vehicles on those constrained roads. So if you get that technology right, it's pretty easy to see a great solution. But if you get it wrong, then everybody, a driverless car is going to be cheaper to take than a bus. So why wouldn't you take one? Of course, if everybody makes that decision, you get solution B, which is much, much, much worse. It's gridlock. Okay, there are questions coming in. And Pat, there's a couple of questions which are to you. They're linked. One will money point stop burning cold, the number one and most significant single step we could take to reduce our carbon footprint, what's taking so long linked to that, what's the plan to replace money point, and what percentage of electricity in Ireland is currently being generated there? Okay, we'll start. So money point is maybe a little over 20% of electricity generated. I suppose in looking at money point, and it's a big question that obviously ESP has to consider, I suppose it's important to look at the ETS and the role of the ETS. So the ETS is going to bring about an elimination of carbon from the electricity generation sector by 2050. It's designed to do that. But I suppose it depends on, you know, on asking the question, what is it to reduce Ireland's carbon emissions or is it to reduce Europe's carbon emissions? The other piece of the jigsaw is of course fuel diversity of supply from a security point of view, and from I suppose an end user price perspective and money point today cold plays a role in both security supply and in terms of keeping prices down. So in the transition to a zero carbon electricity generation system by 2050, it's important that affordability and security supply are kind of a key part of that transition. So that dilemma of sustainability, the classical dilemma of sustainability affordability and security kind of comes into play. So if we shut money point tomorrow, there's an economic impact in terms of end user prices. There's an impact on security and diversity of fuel supplies. But it reduces Ireland's carbon emissions, but it doesn't reduce Europe's carbon emissions. That's because of the nature of the ETS. It just allows Germany or Poland to burn coal. There's a cap, a European cap. The ETS is capped at European level, not at a country level. So I suppose closing money point before is an economically right to do is not the right thing for Ireland. But you know, we are actively looking at money point and we will actively manage out of coal and out of peat over the next decade. You know, coal, we see the EU ETS price that my company coal is on borrowed time. So you know, anytime after the middle of the next decade, you're going to see a ramp down and like coal will ramp down. So, you know, you can say for definite, but it's important in considering your money point, what are you trying to achieve in closing money point, what would replace it in Ireland, but what are you trying to achieve? And as I said, if based on the ETS, it would reduce Ireland's carbon emissions, but it wouldn't reduce Europe's. Okay. Michael is a technical question here. I think will EU ETS price grow if member states continue to subsidize renewable electricity, which dampens the ETS price? So that question is a good question because it, but it is a bit technical because it's to do with, you know, if you have an ETS, but then you don't let it do its work, you then have a renewables directive and an energy efficiency directive. And what these do is then depress the prices. Why bother having an EU ETS price in the first place? I actually have a, so the answer to that is, yeah, you could just take your hands off the wheel and you'll get as, as Pat points out the, but there is another, another point which is when you get this very cheap wind and solar, it wins on its own merits when it is windy or sunny and subsidizing it more doesn't make it windier or sunnier. What you've actually got to do, if you want then more renewables in the system, you've got to then say, well, we need something else to enable a renewable energy or renewable electricity to meet the demand at night or when it's not windy. And the best way to get that is not by making the wind. Those record prices, two cents, whether it's two cents or four cents or whatever. If you make those one cent to two cents, that doesn't help you push into the night time or the non-windy times. What does is batteries, demand response, electrification of heat, electrification of vehicles, or simply taking out the fossil and letting the market really figure out how to keep the lights on. You have to be a brave politician to do that. Okay, a couple of questions for you, Paul, that are linked. One says, heat pumps are very efficient. How much carbon dioxide do they currently emit when compared with oil and gas boilers taking into primary delivered energy? And linked to that, I think it has gone unfortunately, there was another question there that was linked to that about needing to continue to use the heat pump. Will that be possible when you have on and off electricity demand, the effect will win? There we go. Yeah, I guess I answered the CO2 question on one of the slides, so it's about a 50% cut from oil and a little bit more and a little bit less for gas today. But as Pat has said, as we go over the next decade, that's going to drop to about a 90% and 85% for oil and gas. In terms of the continuously, our research project with the IRC and networks and Electric Ireland is looking at how we utilise air source heat pumps on the market. So use the market price to drive when you heat your home. I've been trying out in my own house has been a bit of a guinea pig, but you can reasonably see unless we design our air source heat pumps to run at minus three. So for the other 8,745 hours of the year that it isn't minus three, you can switch them off some of the time, and it's only really when it's very, very cold that you have an issue. So they'll just ramp up. They'll still be very efficient, but they'll ramp up and run a little bit higher and hotter for, we'll say, 12 o'clock in the day until four o'clock in the afternoon, and then they'll just switch off. And you're not going to notice because your house will hold the heat for two or three hours or four hours or five hours, and then come eight or nine in the evening, they'll come back on. And yeah, we may have a particular issue for 15 or 20 or 30 hours of the year, but if we vehicle to grade or any sort of reasonable amount of energy storage, I can see that problem being solved. Okay. Apart from not going to shy away from the awkward questions, one that says ESP is 50% generation, 50% retail, under 100% of network ownership, and is highly politically influential. So serious antitrust questions. Can things really change? I'm not sure what the antitrust piece is about. It's quite an assertion and it's wrong. Yes, we are in, we're vertically integrated through generation network and retail network is regulated generation and retailer competitive. They're very, very stringent regulatory obligations and ring fences on our business, which we must comply with. And it is just not in our values or our DNA that we would be found wanting in respect of those ring fences. So the idea that there's serious antitrust questions and that that is holding back any change, I would refuse. Okay. More technical one. Do you see the adoption of micro PV solar generation battery storage for homes and businesses as a viable option going forward? Are ESP in favour? Yeah. Look, I do. And in this dimensions report that we launched today, all of that is included. I think the important thing is that there is no single solution. So yes, we all have vested interests and so you can look at whether it's an all renewable future or an all non-renewable future or an all solar or an all wind or an all something else. It's going to be a mix. Sorry. It's going to be a mix. So there is no, there is no single solution. So all of that, so that micro PV solar will be part of a battery storage. And I think the coincidence of micro solar, that's solar at the level of a household and battery storage at the level of the household is going to be quite a game changer. That with new technology, particularly around digital and the aggregation in conjunction with smart meeting and smart networks, is really going to allow a very, very dynamic approach to managing the whole of the value chain from production through to consumption in terms of peak management in terms of moving peaks around and in terms of pricing, giving price signals to customers in terms of when and how to use electricity. So yes, that is all part of the mix. Okay. Michael, you want to add to that. The other piece is not just the micro PV and the battery, but also super efficient lighting and appliances, because that's that's the real enabler. If you take an old drafty house with old appliances and filament light bulbs and you think, oh, we'll put PV on the roof and it will change the world. No, obviously it won't. But if you take a really well insulated house with a heat pump and LED lighting throughout really good appliances throughout, then actually you can get your own PV to cover a much bigger proportion of your own demand. And then you can you can store very easy to store warm water or hot water. So you can start to really play some interesting things. And the scale is relevant. Unlike, you know, five, 10 years ago with old appliances and a drafty house, and absolutely micro PV will play a part. I want to stay with you, Michael. There is somebody who suggests that spending on renewables has stagnated. Renewables doubled yet the global pace of change is still too slow to avert climate change. Oh, so that's right. I mean, what's happening? We got to remember that electricity is only 20 20% of final energy demand, 21, 22, something like that. And it needs to be in that this this conference actually really interesting because the idea of pushing electrification to 40 50% doesn't come up at most forums that I attend. And, you know, so that's really interesting. If you've got dramatic change and you really improve 20% of the problem, you're clearly not solving much. We've got to deal with transport. We've got to deal with heat. We've got to deal with industrial processes. We've got to deal with forestry and agriculture. There's just no and when we say transport, you know, there's also ships and airborne, not just land based. So I think the answer to why it is that we can be bullish about the change, but not achieving much is well, we're bullish about the change in a segment. And I think part of the conversation here is how do you get that and expand it into 50% of the economy, not keep it in its 20% silo? And the key to that is actually just to be doing lots of things simultaneously. This isn't sequential. We're not going to solve this carbon problem sequentially. So yes, the electricity system is a long way from being decarbonised, but it does make sense today to use certain technologies in conjunction with the electricity system with its current carbon intensity. And it's important that we just do all of these things in parallel. I want to ask you a question that's disappeared off the screen, but I thought it was an interesting one about the experience which we referred to earlier of Irish water having such dreadful problems putting in the meters, the public reaction against it. Has that impacted on your ability to roll out smart meters? No, not at all. So the approach that's been taken to smart electricity meters is you can opt in or you can opt out. And there is, there's 90 years of experience with electricity meters. So I think water metering and what happened with watery meeting was something that happened at a point in a time in the political cycle, but it hasn't in any way kind of impacted on the timescale or how we've approached the roll out of smart electricity metering. Okay, I think that's probably a good point to wish to call a halt to this particular discussion. So thank you very much to the three gentlemen involved for their presentation through today. If I could just ask them to just wait on stage a second, I think we are going to have our tweet of the day competition result or the winner of the Twitter competition Roshin Moriarty. Congratulations to you. You are the winner. Okay, I would like to invite one other person to come up onto the stage from the Institute of International European Affairs. We'd like to thank ESB again for its kind sponsorship at this event today, the roundroom of the mansion house for hosting us. So with the IEA director general Barry Andrews, please come to the stage to give us our closing remarks. Thank you, Matt. So it falls to me to bring these proceedings to an end. It's been an extremely engaging day of discussion. It's great to have Minister Nocton here and one has some sympathy for the position that he holds. I've been reminded constantly today of the degree to which energy is actually a political issue on a number of occasions. Getting from where we are to the logic of carbon emissions reductions to a low carbon future will not be a linear path and for politicians the great challenge can be summed up as follows. They know what the right thing to do is. They just don't know how to get re-elected when they do it. And the speed of progress will be determined by the appetite for risk and innovation, but also by leadership. And leadership and political risk will be invested if thought leaders and sector actors provide those political decision makers with the longest possible line of vision. Today's proceedings have given us some further visibility on what lies ahead. We have heard that the market requires to be segmented. We heard that the science of behavioural sociology has a lot to tell us and will anticipate popular reaction to different initiatives, but we also heard that smart metering as seductive as it is can be politically combustible. We heard that bill payers will not be pleased to pay for benefits that accrue to the efficient operation of the utility. And we saw in the long running sag around water how despite the compelling logic of water meters leading to a major upgrade in our water network assets, this failed to hit the target with the general public. Finally, one strong takeaway for me today is the continuing mystery around climate change, about why it is that despite what is happening to our weather, despite the gross injustice of the variable impact of climate change on the poorest parts of the world, and despite the unavoidable reality that our children will literally have to pay for our proflegacy, none of this is enough to trigger the political conditions for radical change for long term benefit. And we see that in many social issues, we see that horizontally cutting across many questions of social activism, the inability to change the electoral equation whereby the cost of doing nothing becomes higher than the cost of doing something. May I say in conclusion one final personal note, my grandfather Todd Andrews was an anti-treaty IRA leader in the civil war. Many of his contemporaries in the IRA looked with some embarrassment at the success of the Shannon scheme and the ESB and rural electrification having been convinced for a long time that the free state government were incapable of discharging even the most basic functions of public administration. He had joined the UCD graduates association after the civil war which provided a place where graduates from both sides of the political divide could discuss political issues. He was introduced to the first head of the ESB, Dr McLaughlin, by Arthur Cox, who was then the legal advisor to the ESB and he was recruited in 1930 holding as he said himself a more enlightened view of the ESB than some of his irregular colleagues. Of course the rise in his salary from £300 per annum to £450 per annum might also have helped to overcome his more natural political reflexes. And all of us have family history connected with the ESB. It's a great social history of this country and we really wish them well in the future. I would like to think that in the same way as the UCD graduates association provided a place for people of all political persuasions and none to share ideas and shape policy. The Institute of International European Affairs performs that function to some extent today. So finally can you please join me in thanking the ESB and particularly Bernardino Sullivan for all the wonderful work that she has done in the preparation for this conference. Also to thank on the IEA side both Jill Donohue and Max Munchmeyer for all the work that they have put in. Can I thank our excellent professional emcee today Matt Cooper who's done a fantastic job to thank all of our speakers and the mansion house for everything they have done to help us today. And thank you to all of you. We've been trending all day so it's been a great success from that point of view. And for our American colleagues I wish them a very happy Thanksgiving. So thank you for your attention and safe home.