 So, yeah, let's get into some of the questions, right? So welcome to the new members, right? So there was a question here. Don't remember who this was from. I think it might have been from, who is it from? Was it Vivi, I think it was? Basically, he said, I read an article saying that the market is priced in 50 basis points, like 75 basis points, 100 basis points, et cetera. How to know exactly what is priced in by looking at a price chart. And it's not so much. So first of all, we need to understand what priced in is. When you hear or read the term, the market has priced in something. Basically, what they're saying is, is that everything that is known about that particular asset or currency, right? As we're trading currencies, everything that is known about that currency has been factored into the current price, yeah? And price isn't just, okay, just one price. It's, price is generally of the market is an auction. Meaning that, you know, everyone's gonna have different valuations of what they think. Can everyone see my pencil, by the way, as well, Byron? Can everyone see it, the red pencil? Yeah, yeah. So if you're looking at this on a price chart, yeah? You know, they were gonna be, that might be the value of, that's price and it's time, yeah? This might be, you know, maybe 10 and this might be, for example, eight, yeah? Now, when we speak about, you know, again, priced in, the term priced in, let's just imagine that you, we have bought a currency ahead of a central bank looking into high crates for the first time in, let's say, I don't know, 10 years, yeah? And, you know, because we're fundamental analysis, protagonists, we, you know, we're ahead of the curve and we can see what's happening. All, you know, the environment is setting up for the central bank to look to high crates, yeah? They haven't announced it yet, but it looks like they're going to high crates, yeah? And so what we're trying to do, yeah? Or what we're attempting to do all the time is we're trying, we're getting ahead of the curve. We know that the central bank, you know, hasn't announced that they are potentially looking to high crates, but we know because of things like inflation, GDP, you know, that they are likely to, you know, start to high crates, yeah? Because we know that, obviously, you know, there's a 2% target, inflation target, and let's say, for example, inflation is at maybe 3% and trending away from, you know, their mandated inflation target, GDP is growing, it's in the recovery expansion phase, right? That all lines up to say that, you know, what the central bank is likely to start to high crates. So we start to, you know, get ahead of the curve. Now, price still means that if prices are down here, let's say they've been trending down, they've been going, you know, they've been ranging and auctioning and going sideways, or traders would know as, you know, prices going sideways or ranging. Let's say, for example, prices have been doing that for the past maybe month or two. And there's some data that suggests that the central bank is likely to high crates at some point, you know, in the next maybe few months, the next quarter or two, yeah? The market hasn't priced in the valuation of that high kit, yeah? Then let's say, for example, and this day in time, the central bank comes out and, you know, indicates and signals that they are potentially looking to high crates, yeah? At some sort of FOMC meeting on a Wednesday evening in the UK, the Federal Reserve come out and they say, we are, you know, hawkish and it's likely that we may, you know, start to tighten monetary policy, right? Tighten meaning is language for, you know, a hike in interest rates. Now all of a sudden the market starts to now price in what they think the dollar is worth in the future or by the time, you know, they actually do high crates, which might be maybe a month or two or three, yeah? So this is what pricing in, yeah, is all about, yeah? At the time down here, interest rates were not considered, yeah, by generally the market. At this point in time, the Federal Reserve came out and said that they are potentially looking to high crates at some point soon, yeah? That has to be, the valuation of that currency needs to be priced in, because it can't stay down here, can it? It has to be, well, it depends on, obviously, which is the base and the quote currency, where it has to say, for example, that's dolly in, yeah? Pricing in means that it's, you know, everything that now is supposed to be known about the monetary policy of the US dollar has to be priced in. And by the time you get to the actual rate hike, yeah, potential rate hike, yeah? The information has already been priced in. And so when, you know, it's priced, and being priced in doesn't necessarily mean that it's just one single price. It doesn't mean that it's basically nine or whatever it is. Different traders will have different valuations. Some traders and institutions will say, well, we think that, you know, the dollar might be worth, you know, at an expensive area, maybe somewhere like that. Some traders might say that maybe, you know, eight might be, you know, a bit of a bargain. But this is where the valuation where price or the term priced in, the news has been priced into the market. It comes from, and that's the logic behind it. And the money is made on the rumor getting ahead of the curve. And by the time, you know, the rate hike does happen, it has been, you know, priced in. Does everyone understand that? And I think that was also a question from Rishi as well. And how do we know exactly by looking at price? I mean, we won't know looking at exact price. Nobody typically knows what we can, I guess understand by a time, you know, the closer we typically get to an announcement is the more likely it is that the event has been priced in. The rate hike has been priced in, especially if you see, you know, price do a certain move, right? It's been trending in a certain direction for, you know, a couple of weeks, a couple of months before the event. That's how you would know. And then towards the actual event, that's where you get, you know, the pricing in. Now, just taking that slightly further, the next step would then be what the market is then waiting for is for further guidance from the central bank, because it already knows that the central bank is going to high crates by a certain amount, whether it's, you know, 0.25% or 25 basis points, however you want to say it. Yeah, the market has already baked in this rate hike into the current price valuation, where prices. So then if the central bank come out and say things like, oh, well, we're going to continue hiking for the next, you know, for the foreseeable future and they're likely to be bigger hikes, yeah? Then the market has to price in that, you know, that statement, yeah? And it will start to price in the statement. If the central bank come out and say, oh, well, you know what? We're going to have a wait and see moment and we're going to be data dependent. Maybe not so much. Maybe the market won't, you know, react off of that news until more data, you know, comes out supporting the fact that it will, you know, that it's positive and that will support a potential rate hike, yeah? If the central bank come out and say, well, now we're only going to be hiking once and then we're done, then it's likely that prices will, you know, continue to remain, you know, in that auction, that range, again, unless, for example, the central bank of Japan, for example, aren't doing anything or if they're looking to hike rates, they turn around and say they're going to hike rates, then what should happen, right? Then you might see something like this happen because then the valuation of the dollar, yeah, was, I guess, derived from the fact that maybe the Federal Reserve were hiking rates and the bank of Japan wasn't. If the bank of Japan then turn around after the dollar was hiked rates and say, well, they're going to look to hike rates in the next couple of months, then unfortunately, I'll say, oh, I'll say, unfortunately, unfortunately, depending on which way you want to buy or sell. You know, the value of the dollar can't be here because that was based, that valuation was based off of the hike in rates for the dollar and a holding rates on the yen. If the yen now starts up hike rates, then there's going to be another valuation, right? It might not be all the way down here, but it might be slightly lower, yeah? Does that all make sense, by the way? Adam Ola says, with your explanation, this means that the effect of rate hikes would have shown in the market before absolutely adding more. That's basically what the point I'm getting at. That's exactly the point I'm getting at. You're buying the rumour. You know the phrase, buy the rumour, sell the fact? Yeah, it's because the rumour was that they were hiking rates. The rumour pushes prices up here and then that rumour has been priced into the market. Everything that is known about the rate hike should be in the valuation of the dollar, yeah? And then by the time it comes out, the money's been made and the valuation has been set. And then we look towards future value, depending upon what the central bank is likely to do in the future. And then there's obviously things like, you know, there's accumulation. I don't really want to use that word. It's more to do with, you know, there's liquidity, right? The market makes it to provide liquidity for banks and so you might get a period where prices will pull back, but ultimately all that is is just basically the, you know, the institutions buying for cheaper because they don't want to buy expensive areas. You know, they're looking to accumulate and then we're off to the races again, yeah? So that is basically what pricing means. So take it as, I guess, a gospel. Typical, anyway, I wouldn't say gospel, but one of the things I'm using is a high probability that the closer you get to a massive news event like, for example, you know, anything to do with GDP, interest rates and inflation, that, you know, in any central bank speeches that it would have been priced in. Now, what's interesting is that, and I guess I wanted to talk about the euro a little bit later, but I'll talk about it now because it's a bit relevant. So ECB, the European Central Bank, are actually looking to, the consensus is that, you know, what has been priced in over the past couple of weeks is a 75 basis point hike, yeah? Now there's been reports that actually they may not hike by 75 basis points and they actually might do 50 basis points, yeah? So the recent rally in the euro, yeah, was based off of the fact that there was rumors that they probably have to hike, you know, have a bigger hike than maybe the 50 basis points, as I said, now it's, it might be this. I don't know if anyone's seen or read some of the reports surrounding that analysis, but let me get into it if you haven't. And, you know, one of them is from MUFG, right? Which is, you know, they always come out with, you know, brilliant scenario analysis. I like looking at their analysis. And if you're new to this just quickly, what they do is they give you basically their, I guess their best and worst case for price, for the euro, dollar or the affected currency or the major currency, depending on the central bank. And so they're saying that their base case, right? They think that the European central bank is gonna be moderately dovish and this is based on inflation, their inflation outlook, yeah, growth outlook, interest rates, quantitative easing. And then at the end, they think that the euro, dollar at the moment is around that, you know, 99 cent area. And if they, if they are, if they do fall into this category and this is what they do say about inflation, growth, interest rates and quantitative easing, then the euro, dollar is likely to probably come down to, you know, the 98 cent area. If they are moderately hawkish, let's say for example, and this is basically saying that they think that on interest rates, there is a, they think that it's gonna be a 50 basis point height. So maintaining a fully data dependent approach, yeah? They're dependent meaning that they are gonna look for data, wait for the data to come out and then make the decisions based on the data rather than it just being kind of what the Fed are doing, which is, even though they said that they're gonna be data dependent, I think the Fed are more just, you know, it's a foregone conclusion that they just look into height as much as possible at the moment. If they are moderately hawkish, yeah, they come out moderately hawkish, meaning that they have a potential 75 basis point height and projections show negative growth only in the quarter four of 2022 and inflation to remain elevated for longer than previously forecasted. That's what they communicate, yeah? Then they think that the price of the euro dollar should rise to maybe, you know, one to parity, yeah? And then if they're very hawkish, then they see a bit of a ceiling of 102.