 Okay, we're back. We're live. We're here with Dennis Wang of the C. Grant College at UH Manoa, and we're going to talk about eruptions. As a matter of fact, title of the show is, Update, Eruption Update from the UH C. Grant College. We're going to find out stuff that he is working on, an update of his book. We're talking about his book and we're talking about what we may have learned over the past few weeks on the eruption going on on the big island. Welcome to the show, Dennis. Okay. Well, it's good to be back. Yeah. It's actually our fourth time on the show. Yeah. Well, you're regular. You should be irregular. I don't know. Because we have to follow what you are doing and learning. You are our guru as far as earthquakes are concerned, and hence the book. The book is called Homeowners Handbook to Prepare for Natural Hazards, and I think what you mean by that is earthquakes, huh? Well, if you look at the back of the book, the main ones we're covering are hurricanes. Tsunamis, hurricanes, earthquakes, and floods, all of that. Right. This is the book you're holding is an interim update. We tried to get something out before that could be used for this hurricane season, but we're doing a full update, which would be version four, and it would also have volcanoes and climate change in those hazards that we're going to cover. So refresh us on what's in the book. Okay. So, you know, I want to have this book handy with me. Yes. I want to look at this book before the event, not at the moment of the event. That's right. I want to prepare. This is a book about preparation. In fact, it says that homeowners handbook to prepare for natural hazards. That's right. Well, okay. So what's in here is in the first part, we give a scientific explanation, but we explain it for the layperson what the different hazards are about. So we'll explain hurricanes and tsunamis, you know, and we'll give some information on the geographical extent of the different hazards, okay? And then in the next part of the book, we cover emergency supplies and evacuation planning. It's very important. People have an evacuation plan and it's not as simple as just a lot of literature will say make a plan, but it's a lot more involved in that. I mean, people shouldn't know the difference between tsunami evacuation and hurricane evacuation. Oh, sure. Yeah. So different for the different risks. And now volcano evacuation too, right? Yeah. All different. Yeah. Let's go back for a minute, though, the supplies. Yeah. I really want to dwell on that for a minute. Sure. By the way, I just watched this movie called The Way It Ends. Okay. And it doesn't end, but it's a story about a huge seismic event in Seattle. Oh, okay. And it's about the story of trying to get to Seattle to save somebody. And it's very realistic. And you would love it because I know you think about these things. It's about seismic events and it's about saving people and it's realistic. The Way It Ends, it's on Netflix now. Okay. I'll have to watch that. Yeah, you will. Okay. So anyway, so if I'm fixing my cupboard and I'm going down to Costco or wherever I go, what do I need to be thinking about to prepare, to get supplies for one of these possibilities? Okay. The standard now is 14 days of non-perishable food and water. And I give some tips. We put some tips in the book. So for example, non-perishable food, personally, I never put things in my kit that I'm not going to use or they're going to expire. I usually put things out of a long shelf life, like three or four years. And I also, if you look at some of the food that you buy, it'll have very fine print, very difficult to read and especially have some supplies. So when as soon as I buy it, I'll take a Sharpie and I'll put the month and date and year it was bought and then put it at the bottom. Yeah. In terms of water, you're supposed to have two weeks supply, 14 days of water per person. So a family of four is supposed to have 56 gallons of water. You go to Costco or Sam's Club and buy a case of water. There's five or six gallons in that case. So you would really need 11 cases, which is hard for the average homeowner to do. Is it drinking, washing or both? Both. But the point is what I do is, and what we recommend is you buy your water and the cases as much as you need, but also supplement it with other things. You could use garbage cans to store water and Amazon sells these plastic liners called water bobs. You could put them in your bathtub and they hold 100 gallons of water at a time. Just close them up or it remains open. It's closed and perfectly sanitary. It remains folded and then if there's an incoming event, you just fill that, put it in your bathtub and fill it up. Where is that now Costco, you say? Amazon. Amazon. Yeah. And there's several makes of it and there are really a lot of different products you could get to store water. So probably one thing, I mean there's a lot of lists. So take a look at the list. The other thing I just want to mention is medication. If you're on medication, make sure you have like an extra 30 day supply during hurricane season. Yeah. God. We hate to think of these things. We hate to contemplate the possibility of a 30 day hiatus that way. Yes. But you know, I think with the volcano and we'll talk about that shortly and a lot of people have a lot of interest about the volcano now. It's on the news. But that teaches us a lesson because these things can happen. And I'm going to show you some pictures of that area before the eruption started. And you would look at it and you would think, no one would think that their location, their house would be under 20 feet of lava two weeks later. You know? So these things will happen, especially if scientists indicate there's a risk and scientists will generally know when there's a risk, then people should listen. Yes. Yeah. Just a footnote on Sea Grant College. Sea Grant College is all about this kind of thing. This book is a product of Sea Grant College. That's right. The Sea Grant College does things like this book. That's right. You sell them or give them away. They're for free. So there are 25 partners in the book and they support the book. They make contributions. They allow us to print. We've gone through nine print runs with 75,000 copies for this book. And then... It's a real public service to do this. And actually, this one just got printed a week ago. This version 3.2, this is our interim update for this hurricane season. And this was actually paid by one of our partners, Coastal Zone Management Program. But as funds become available from the different partners, they contribute and we print the book out. And it's public service. Consistent with the recognized obligation of the university to do public service for the community. This is a very valuable piece. And it's hard to find this information just looking around. That's right. We try it. That's the purpose of the book. Because there's so much information out there, we try and filter it out what's most relevant to the homeowner. Yeah. Well, let's start on that part of the show, which deals with the volcano and the eruption. Okay, sure. So, why don't we just start? Maybe we could take a look at some of these pictures and we're on this little stand. Okay. So, you could get your main information for the volcano from the USGS Hawaii Volcano website. Okay. So, this is a picture of, you can see on the lower corner, there's the Big Island, there's Mauna Kea, Mauna Loa, Kilauea and the East Rift Zone. And then there's a little box on the southeast tip of the Big Island. That is the East Rift Zone and the area where there's a lot of volcanic activity. What you see in purple are historic flows. So, there's an 1840 flow. And then there's a, see where it says, Vacation Land Hawaii. Above it, there's a 1960 flow. And below it, there's a 1955 flow. Again, like we mentioned, scientists can tell you when there's going to be risk. And it would be expected that there would be some risk from volcanoes. And the last thing I want to point out, all the red is lava flows that have occurred after May 3rd of this year. So, you can see where it says Vacation Land Hawaii. If you look closely, you'll see the outline of the coast. The lava has gone a mile past the shoreline in that location. And there are a lot of houses that used to be there. Yeah, so would things in this book have helped the people? Well, it would have. The key thing is there's not a lot you could do for lava. I mean, another component of the book is how do you make your house strong and there's nothing you could do for lava. So, but it would have helped in terms of them helping to make them have an evacuation plan. Because everybody should have an evacuation plan for the different hazards, whether it be a tsunami, hurricane or lava, especially if you're on the Big Island or Maui. Right? Let's talk about lava for a minute, just a minute. How does that plan differ from flooding, from earthquake, from hurricane? How does that plan differ? OK, it's going to be different. They're going to have some warning. I mean, there's some hazards that they're going to give you warning, like a hurricane. Probably, a lava will be similar to that. You'll have advanced notice. And the key is to listen to your emergency management or civil defense agencies. OK, you should also, as part of your evacuation plan, have an evacuation kit where everything that you need to sustain yourself for a period of time is in that kit and also your important documents. OK, for some hazards, there's going to be very little warning. One, an earthquake. Two, a tsunami. And those are in the book. We do have evacuation planning in chapter three of the book. And for an earthquake, you drop to the floor, go under a table to cover up and hold on. And then after the shaking stops, you leave the building. And for a tsunami, everyone should know, especially for a local tsunami, if the shaking is strong enough that you can't stand, you should move up land inland. So those are the key things, and they're all in the book. I want to keep them in your head, though, in case anything happens quickly. That's right. So should we? Yeah, let's go to the next picture. OK, OK. So what we have here is Lailani Estates. And along the East Rift Zone, I think there are like 27 fishers. Not all of them are active. And the big one is Fisher 8, where all the steam is coming out right now. And then just to the left in that picture, you'll see 9, 10, 11, or 12. But those are no longer really active, just steam coming out. But that is where most of the lava is coming out and impacting Lailani Estates and then flowing to the coastline and eventually reach Capoho. And it's migrating also to the south. So it's just like the movies, when you see the fisher coming at you. You see the two halves separating. You see a chasm growing between. And then you look down, you see something red and glowing. And it's coming up from the bowels of the earth, and it's coming at you. Is that what it looks like, this fisher business? Somewhat. And I think we'll show you, because I actually have a picture from the year. Don't show me yet. OK. I'm going to make a cliffhanger out of it, literally. Literally a cliffhanger. Let me take a short break and come back. And we're going to see this fisher. And we're going to see the problems. OK, so I'll be right back. Aloha, I'm Jay Feidel, one of the hosts of Asia in Review, which is broadcast Monday afternoons on thinktecawai.com. We cover, we study news and politics in and affecting Asia. We work hard to bring you the most interesting subjects and guests who will raise your awareness. Please join us Mondays every week on Asia in Review on thinktecawai.com. And also on YouTube and iTunes. Thanks for watching. We'll see you then. Aloha Sheshe and Sajian. Aloha, I'm Jay Feidel, founder of thinktecawai. And I'm Andrea Gabrielli, the host for Young Talents Making Way. Wait a minute. This is not a new episode, is it, Jay? No, it's not a new episode. That show is over, Andrea. So what are you going to do now? Why don't we have a summer edition of Young Talents Making Way, where we focus more on education as a mean for our young talents to max out, becomes role models, and achieve their dreams. What a great idea. So when do you want to begin, Andrea? July the 3rd, 2018, Tuesday at 11 AM. Young Talents Making Way summer edition. Stay tuned. OK, we're back. We're back with Dennis Wong of Sea Grant College. And we're talking, we're doing an update on the eruption. We're learning. We're always learning. Sea Grant is always learning. OK, you had some pictures about fishers. OK, well, let's look at some of these, OK? So the first one here, it's just a house in Leilani Estates. And you can see this house is right near Fisher 8. And there are some houses that are just at the border, this flow that apparently OK. But even then, there's a question of whether they'll be functional after the event, because the infrastructure is impacted. There's no electricity. The roads are blocked. Some houses, there's steam coming out of the house. But take a look at this house. It actually has a green roof if you go out there, because I'll go to the next picture. OK, here's your Fisher, Jay. Fisher 8, going through Leilani Estates, and you could actually see that house, that greenhouse. I'm going to point to it with this. Oh, it's right. OK, it's right here. Right there. That's the greenhouse that you saw in the picture before. And you could see the lava coming out of the Fisher. And it's actually flowing over 20 miles an hour. You can't outrun that. No, that's right. And it's very spectacular. It glows like that. You could see it glowing like that during the day. And then at nighttime, it's really spectacular. Yeah. Well, that must be terrifying if you're anywhere near it, because you don't know exactly where it's going to go. That's right. And what's astounding and really hard for people is, let's see. OK, well, I don't have it here, but the Fisher is open right up in the middle of a subdivision. So it's like movies. Right. That's right. Can kids just do a warning? I mean, you see no crack, and then a little crack, and then a bigger crack right in front of you. There was warning. I mean, this is Fisher 8. So the number of the first one, Fisher 1, 2, 3. So this is all, it all started May 3, OK? And the Fisher's open up. Different ones open up each day, and they give it a number. I think they're now 27. But it went to 27, and then 8 wound up becoming the most active, OK? So there is warning. Always listen to your civil defense and emergency management, and always have an evacuation plan. Yeah, well, I'd want to get out of there sooner than later. And then also the other thing is insurance, too. Well, you can't get insurance once the thing, once the eruption starts. Right, right. Well, let me ask you this, though. You said that 8 was worse than 7, 6, 5, 4, and so on. Is it, am I right to conclude that at least and through 8, it was getting worse. It's been getting more violent, yeah? Yeah, it's been flowing once the lava started going through 8. And you should really check with USGS on this. But it appears that the flow has been going much stronger than before when it was going through the other fissures, OK? And also the earthquake activity, because you're looking at two things now, and this is where we could really make a difference, is the lava is happening in nearly a lot of the states in these fissures. But a lot of the earthquake activity is happening back in Volcano Village, Kilauea. And a lot of the volcano visitor centers closed. There's still people living in Volcano Village, and they're subject to earthquakes like magnitude fives almost every day. And it's very, I was going to show a video. And actually, if people, when they Google the homeowner's handbook to prepare for natural hazards and go or go to the University of Hawaii Sea Grant College program and Google it, and they go to the handbook website, we have four files on post-imperial. And we're going to cover that shortly. But one of them is a video, by the engineering department at University of Hawaii. And it shows what happens when houses on these post-imperial structures are subject to continued earthquake shaking. Well, that's directly in line with your preparations in the book. Right, because a major part is strengthening homes for the different hazards. Not a lot we could do for lava, but there is a lot we could do for earthquakes. And thanks for inviting us, because we really want people on the Big Island to start thinking about this and actually start even if they can start doing it right now. Yeah, because the reality is it's a sign curve. It's going to repeat. It's going to loop. What's going to happen is, OK, if things to settle down, some people will leave, other people won't leave. And then there will still be a neighborhood of some kind there. And people will build new houses, because insurance companies will insure them. And mortgages will finance them. And then at the end of the day, this will happen again. I mean, don't you think? Not right away, but over time. It'll happen again. But the thing, too, is no one knows how long this eruption is going to last. It could last another week. It could last another three months. Could have lasted five years. It could last. It could. I mean, you could talk with the USGS. And we actually are doing a volcano section for the handbook. And we're working with the USGS. But no one really knows how long this volcano will last. And as long as the lava keeps coming out, there's still going to be earthquakes. And all of these earthquakes over time are going to affect these buildings. So maybe we should. Go on, yeah. And lava bombs, too. We didn't really focus on lava bombs until it happened on that boat out there. That's right. But that's pretty serious on lava bomb. It's really a bomb, too. It is. Because the super hot lava hitting the water. And actually, on the next picture, you'll see exactly that. Because this is what's happening. OK, so this is the lava traveling, I think, six or seven or eight miles to the coastline. At a speed of 20 miles an hour. Yes. And it's changed past. This is Kapoho Bay. And you can see the lava hitting the coastline here. Now, since the lava started flowing, the shoreline has migrated over a mile. Oh, the lava has built it up a mile. Yeah, it's gone out a mile. And here, let's go through another picture. Here is what Kapoho looked like five days before the eruption. We went out there five days before the eruption, the photograph. But the reason was, we really did a study in the area 12 years ago to study subsidence. And the area was subsiding, like, one centimeter a year. And we were studying it for. Does this tell you anything? Yeah, well, it's very unstable, right? But you could see these houses. Because that was April 28, five days before the eruption. And then you could see these are the same houses. Now, the lava has reached these houses, like, two or three or four. I don't know the exact date of this photo. But this is, like, online on the website. It's on, like, a lot of TV shows. But you could see how the impact is. And again, what we're trying to get across is, scientists pretty much can predict where the risks are. And when scientists say there's a risk, people, everyone should listen. Homeowners, planners, and. Well, let me ask you this, Dennis. I mean, if scientists can predict the risks. Somewhat. Somewhat. It depends. And it depends on the hazard itself, too. Sure, of course. Yeah. And you can, and a lot of the prediction is based on what happened before. It's historic. That's right. If you look at what happened before, you can figure out where the risk is now. So if I have a house, just like there at Pahoa, and the lava comes and destroys the house, it buries it and or burns what's not buried. And then it stops. Then the eruption's over. And I go back six months, eight months, 10 months, 12 months later. And I say, well, it's my land, for better or worse. I want to build another house. Is this advisable? Because historically, the lava came right down that channel. Or am I being silly? Well, yeah. It is a risky area. I'm not going to get too much into who could build it or who cannot. And even who owns the land? Because it's not really settled. It's not settled. Supposedly, when there's a lava flow, according to old common law cases, it's like the state owns the lava. You get what's under it. Yeah, but the point is, I mean, do you really want to take that risk? The issue is raised, for sure. And it's like there are lava flow maps that put out by the USGS. So this area is in the highest lava flow risk, yeah. In the whole state, am I right? Yeah, because in terms of lava and earthquakes, the greatest risk is the southern part of the Big Island and then the northern part of the Big Island, then Maui. Because just the way the Hawaiian Islands are formed, being over a hotspot geologically. Got more pictures? Sure. So, OK, so what we could really make a difference is earthquake activity. So there's a lot of people in volcano village that are seeing impacts and damages from earthquakes. Like, some parts of their wall are starting to separate. And you don't have to be in a lava flow to have an earthquake. Right. It could be fairly removed and remote from the actual lava. Right. And so this is a report on a post-imperial structure by two structural engineers, one Ian Robertson at the University of Hawaii and another by Gary Choch, is also a structural engineer. So they did this report in 2009. And it's 75% of the, roughly, 75% of the houses in volcano village are on post-imperial. And they're getting magnitude 5 earthquakes almost every day. And like I said, on our website, we have a video that shows what happens when these post-imperial structures are subject to repeated. What happens? They start, they come off their post. They might just shear the post right off. Well, what happens, let's see if we can see on the next one. OK, see, on the upper left picture, OK, that's a post-imperial structure. So there's a big concrete block. And then there's a smaller concrete block, which they call the tofu block. And then above that, there's a termite pan. And above that, there's the post to the house. And there's no connection between any of those elements. It's just held by friction. So when the house starts shaking, the thing starts going like this. And eventually, it migrates right off the block. And then once it comes off, the house takes a lot of structural damage. Yeah, so there was a way to retrofit. And it was described in that 2009 report. And then we did a demonstration project for Pearl City because it's even easier to do it now with all these new products and connectors. I'm not going to go into that, but the demonstration project is also on our website. And we encourage people on the Big Island to consider doing these retrofits. The only difference between Oahu and the Big Island is Big Island's on a greater seismic zone. So they may have to build shear walls also on the corners. But they do the same thing with the post-imperial retrofit. Earthquake can happen anywhere in the state. Right. But eruption is mostly limited to the Big Island. But earthquakes can be anywhere, yeah? That's true. But the greatest earthquake risk is on the Big Island. Yeah, OK. OK. Now, what's the mechanics? Look, here's a perfect example. OK, let's look at this. OK, so this is a house in Volcano Village. And you can see the post-imperial structure with the post just sitting on that termite pan, the tofu block, and the concrete block. It's just held by friction. And if there are all these repeated earthquakes, say there's earthquakes for another five years. So that's why I'm saying we're saying that people, they should consider doing some of these retrofits as soon as possible. So what's the retrofit involved? Let's go to the next page. OK, so there are all these different hold downs. And let's see if I can point to some of this. So what it is is you take a 2 by 4's and you scab the space in between the post and the tofu block so that they're flush. And then you take the hold down and attach it to the 2 by 4 and the post. And you drill holes into the hold down into the concrete foundation. That's what it is. I could do this. Yes. And this is cheap. The materials are cheap, nearly nothing. Yes. We do recommend that before they start, they see a licensed structural engineer. So there are a few in Hawaii County already. And they should also contact the Structural Engineers Association. Once they do that, they could either once they have the proper direction, they could either do that themselves for some of the retrofits or hire a contractor to do that. OK, but it's not complicated. This one's not complicated. Yes. This Pearl City house was not done by a contractor. OK. So let's make this the last one because we're almost out of time. For OK. What do you want to show on this one? OK, I just want to explain to people the concept of a continuous load path. So this is essentially tying the roof to the wall. And then the second floor is connected to the first floor. And the first floor is connected to the foundation. So it's almost like you take a chain and throw it over the roof of the house and tie it down. But instead of the chain, which is external, it's all internal by the building codes. So that previous example with the post-impaire for the single-wall house, that was one part of a continuous load path is tying the house to the foundation. And then for a single-wall house, all you would do is tie the roof to the wall. OK. That's in that on the handbook also. Yeah, you have drawings and you show the devices that are suggested. But I take it from what you say and from the fact that these things are available, that they reduce your risk substantially of having the house come off the posts or having the house somehow shear and fall down in an earthquake. Yes, very substantially. Take a look at the video. It's only like 10 minutes long. OK, because there's a lab example of what happens when there's seismic shaking and there's no retrofit. And then when they do the full retrofit, there's no damage at all. Big difference. Big difference. And then also the same thing with all the other measures. Hurricane clips we want. And the reason I mentioned the load path and hurricanes and earthquakes, it's because the mitigation is the same for both of them. For an earthquake, you reduce damage by making sure your roof is connected to the foundation and the foundation strong. That's why we concentrate on the posts and PR, because that's the weakest part of the Big Island. Same thing with a hurricane. And it is hurricane season now. And the Big Island was hit recently by a cell, which wasn't a hurricane. It was a tropical storm. But that was a few years ago. So they got to consider that also. So a lot of these things we recommend have a dual earthquake hurricane benefit. Well, you know what they say, Dennis. A stitch in time saves nine. OK, that's right. Dennis Warren, see Grant College. Thank you so much. OK, thank you. We'll do it again. So.