 Greetings to all distinguished colleagues and friends. The Commonwealth of Learning is proud to support this AAOU conference and I must thank Professor Melinda Bandeleria, Dr. Naseer Navid and the organizers for the opportunity to be virtually present. Though I must say, I miss not being at this year's AAOU conference and that too in the beautiful city of Lahore. However, my topic today is ODL in 2020 and beyond and I have prepared this with my colleague Dr. Sanjay Mishra. In this presentation, I will first review the evolution of ODL and the different institutional models that have emerged over the years. I will then share examples of how some institutions have been preparing for 2020 and conclude with some key areas that we need to focus on as we prepare for the world beyond 2020. First, let us briefly touch on the evolution of ODL. We speak of the fourth industrial revolution today. What has been the impact of these revolutions on ODL? In the first industrial revolution, when the steam engine was invented, higher education made a transition from being elite to one, which anyone could aspire to, which means more move towards massification. The second industrial revolution was marked by the assembly line and mass production, when it became possible to produce self-instructional materials and offer correspondence courses. The rise of the computer and internet in the third revolution led to the emergence of open universities and today in the fourth revolution marked by artificial intelligence and robotics, we have open educational resources or OER and MOOCs. Now if we use Christensen's disruptive innovation model in higher education, we find open and distance learning as the real innovation at the bottom of the pyramid that continues to challenge mainstream face-to-face higher education. ODL as an innovation is now manifesting itself as online and blended learning. MOOCs, another form of distance education embraced by top research universities, is now challenging traditional ODL. So ODL, the initial disruptive innovation, is now being disrupted. So how can we reclaim our leadership in this field? When CALL first started its operations in 1988, there were 10 open universities in the common wealth, three in Canada alone with just one in Africa. Today there are 31 open universities in the common wealth, catering to nearly 5 million students. The trend is very clear. Developed countries are mainstreaming ODL in campus universities while developing countries continue to invest in single-mode open institutions. Most of these open universities were established in the 20th century but even those being established in the 21st century are following the earlier industrial model. So what's this industrial model as Otto Peters explained? The industrial model works through a division of labour, mass production and distribution and efficient planning and organisation. The world is changing rapidly but are we changing and keeping pace? If we look at young people, you know changing four jobs by the age of 31 is the new normal for our young people. We need to focus on skilling and re-skilling learners for the uncertain world of tomorrow. Learners will need to move back and forth from academia to employment. This could give rise to networks of multi-worth cities. Micro qualifications are already becoming as important as degrees. In addition, the faculty will have to become lifelong learners to acquire the knowledge and skills in new modes of delivery and pedagogy. Are our universities preparing for these changes? A Delphi survey was conducted recently to get the views of experts on what kind of universities will be needed in the future. The results of the survey suggest four possibilities. A future skills focus, a commitment to lifelong learning, multi-institutional pathways and personalisation of academic learning. Are ODL institutions thinking of these priorities? Let us look at some of the models of ODL institutions over the last 50 years. Asia has seen the greatest growth of single-mode open universities. Many of these are mega universities with enrolments of over 100,000. Alama Iqbal Open University, Indira Gandhi National Open University, Universitas Derbuka, University of the Philippines Open University, Open University of China, are all mega universities that are making it possible to provide affordable access to millions of those who would otherwise not have entered higher education at all. The single-mode open universities are still relevant today because of the large numbers that have to be still reached. We have an even larger number of dual-mode universities, some of which are again mega universities, mega institutions. The Open School of Delhi University has an enrolment of 150,000 students every year. In the US, the Babson Survey 2018 reports that 31% of campus students were taking at least one distance course. This model, this dual-mode model, normally uses the strengths of the existing faculty to reach more learners and is being seen as a viable business model for many campus universities. The Open University of Malaysia is an interesting example of the consortium model where 11 public universities are partners. This is a collaborative model where all participating institutions take ownership and share the benefits, calls on virtual university for small states of the Commonwealth or WASC, the Open Universities Australia and OER Universitas are different versions of this model. The strength of the model is the power of the network, collaboration and resource sharing. Because technology and the internet is making it possible, many countries have started virtual universities. The Virtual University of Pakistan, our host institution, has virtual campuses that offer blended learning opportunities to those who are not ready for a fully online provision. This blended approach is very effective for developing countries. The Open University of Hong Kong is an example of an emerging model that uses multiple strategies to open up education, including initiating campus provision they've started face-to-face classes and offering MOOCs. Each model demonstrates a response to the needs of a particular context at a particular time. However, all models have five elements in common. These are content, delivery, recognition of qualifications, flexibility and openness. Instead of developing courses from scratch, some institutions are using existing OER. Technology is being used to personalize learning through various delivery options and some of these universities are going beyond formal credentials to recognize prior learning. The emphasis is on flexibility and on becoming truly open. So how are institutions preparing themselves for the needs of 2020 and beyond? Universities today are facing multiple challenges. New emerging models of educational delivery such as MOOCs are both an opportunity and a threat to existing approaches. There is an increased pressure on vice chancellors and presidents to show results at minimal costs. Institutions must prove themselves as centers of excellence in research and at the same time produce employable graduates. So how are the Open Universities responding? The strategic plan of Athabasca University, Canada is entitled and let me quote, Imagine Transforming Lives, Transforming Communities. And positions the institution as open, flexible and everywhere. In order to meet this promise, it has adopted agile course development using OER, data informed student services, and a digital strategy that helps them to reach the remotest learners. Keeping pace with the changing times, the Open University UK has extended its global footprint through future learn its MOOC platform. It uses multiple media channels such as iTunes and YouTube to improve student support systems. University of South Africa is becoming increasingly paperless by using OER, e-books, e-tutors and e-mentors. It ensures that every student has access to a personal computer or tablet and the internet. The Open University of Tanzania is using technologies to address the issue of providing access to people with disabilities. The Open University of Mauritius is transforming its systems to integrate employability. Open University of Malaysia is using artificial intelligence to develop chatbots for personalized tutoring. So what do all these institutions have in common? They are using technology and open educational resources or OER, building partnerships and collaborations, strengthening learner support and making use of data and hard evidence to drive innovation and research. So what do we need to think about when we prepare for the 21st century and for beyond 2020? As you know, the global community adopted the 17 Sustainable Development Goals or SDGs of which SDG4 aspires to ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and lifelong learning for all by 2030. This goal can be achieved, however difficult it may be, with the significant contributions from the ODL community. So what kind of graduates are we developing? Are we producing lifelong learners who are ready for employment in the changing job market? Do they have a positive mindset for working with others? Are they responsible global citizens? The Open Universities of tomorrow will not just be industrial as in the past but will also be networked institutions with an increased emphasis on collaboration and sharing. We will need to revisit our institutional cultures and our business models. Institutional culture will depend on leadership and the extent to which we can motivate and inspire our staff to deliver results. New technologies can provide data for informed decision making, especially for the leaders. As practices change, so will our notions of quality. The focus of quality is now not just on inputs and processes as it was in the past but also on competencies, learning outcomes and the employability of our graduates. Student research supports the advantages of blended approaches. Learners want interactivity and instant feedback. We also need to guide learners to become self-directed and autonomous so that they are well prepared for learning throughout life. Since we are no longer testing only knowledge but also skills and competencies, we need new ways of assessing performance. Openness and flexibility requires that we recognize prior learning and make it possible for learners to transfer their credits anytime, anywhere. All of us need to invest more in learner support and technology can certainly help us to a large extent. Some institutions are offering 24-7 online hubs and call centers and these are proving to be very helpful but of course they must be run effectively. Learning analytics have helped to provide personalized learning and improvement in learning outcomes in many institutions who have tried this. But whatever model we adopt, let us ensure that our graduates have the three literacies that Robert Ahon proposes. First, the human literacy. Now this prepares students to perform jobs that only human beings can do. Human literacy will help them to make ethical choices, equip them for social engagement through effective communications. Effective communication is very important. Second, data literacy. Now this is very essential in a world driven by data. Learners must be able to find meaning in the flood of information around us. And the third is technological literacy which is essential if we are to understand machines and their uses. Learners must be able to use and deploy software and hardware in order to maximize their powers to achieve and create. So if we equip our learners with these three literacies, you know the human, the data and technological, we will be preparing them for 2020 and beyond. So with those few thoughts, let me wish the conference every success and thank you for your kind attention.