 Namaste and welcome back to the video course on Watershed Management. Today we will start a new module, module number 9. So, the topic is on Drought Management, some of the topics covered in this module include drought assessments and classification, drought analysis techniques and drought mitigation planning. In this module in lecture number 35, today we will discuss about drought assessments. So, some of the topics covered in today's lecture include droughts, assessments, classification, meteorological droughts, hydrological droughts, agricultural droughts, drought vulnerability, some of the keywords for today's lecture, droughts, assessments, meteorological drought, hydrological droughts and agricultural droughts. So, as we were discussing about the watershed management, it is one of the important resources water. So, it is the mainly the management of water. So, as we discussed in the last module if plenty of water is available with the rainfall exceeds certain limits and then various drainage problem then there is a possibility of flooding. So, that means plenty of water excess of water is needed, water water needed so that is the flooding problem. So, the drought is opposite to the flooding so where we do not have sufficient water for long time. So, for many months or few years time there is no sufficient rainfall, there is no sufficient water availability either surface water or ground water. So, that way when we discuss about the watershed management drought is one of the important aspects which we have to see all the aspects and then how we can reduce the vulnerability of droughts as far as when we discuss about the watershed management. So, in this context today let us discuss about the drought assessments. So, as I mentioned the definition of a drought is a drought is an extended period of say it is an extended period say may be for months or years when a region notes a deficiency in its water supply whether surface or ground water. So, that way drought means say there is no sufficient water say the surface water or ground water it is not only for few months, but say may be number of months or so for few years. So, there is no sufficient water is available either surface water or ground water. So, that way we can say that a location where watershed is say unable to drought. So, when there is no sufficient rainfall say for few seasons or few years or say even whenever sufficient rainfall is there, but say for 2, 3 months and then say 7, 8 months or 9 months there is no rain at all and then there is no sufficient water available. So, that way it can be short term drought or long term drought. So, this way so droughts occurs when a region receives consistently below average precipitation. So, that way we can see that when rain is not at all taking place say to a normal condition or average condition. So, for say few seasons or few years so that way we can say that consistently below average precipitation is the condition for a watershed then we can say that that watershed is unable to drought. So, that way there is substantial say when we look in to look about to the drought situation. So, when we say look to the drought situation in many countries or many locations we can see that there is substantial impact of droughts on the ecosystem, agriculture, human being, flora and fauna. So, that way that affected region there is no sufficient water either in terms of surface water, ground water so that is a major issue. So, even a short intense droughts can cause significant damage and harm the local economy. So, as I mentioned the drought can be for short term or for long term. So, short term means even though there was rainfall say to certain average condition, but that is for a short duration, but say for example, 2, 3 months for rainfall, but then 9 or 10 months of there is no rainfall or there is no sufficient water is available due to various reasons. So, then we can see that is so for short term duration. So, that way the total watershed will be affected in terms of economy and various other conditions. So, that way the availability of water is so important as far as watershed management is concerned. So, we can see that this drought is a global phenomena. So, it is we can see it is not only in India or say in Asia, but all the countries all the parts of the world or the earth is affected by drought. So, it is the drought is wide spread and it has impacts on agriculture. So, you can see that if say agriculture needed sufficient say moisture or water. So, that way when the availability of water is not say reduced. So, then agriculture will be affected and then say when the agriculture say most of the the rural economy is based upon the agriculture. So, when agriculture is affected then the people will be migrating from say the considered watershed to other places in search of jobs. So, that the other impact will be migration and then human settlement will be say affected. So, if the drought is persisting for long time say many years like what we can see in many of the African countries like Sudan and Chad then you can see that the human settlement itself will be affected and then people will be migrating to other parts of the the world. So, that way say we can see this this kinds of problem droughts say so, the droughts can be short term drought or long term droughts. So, long term drought is very detrimental. So, the the total the settlement or the the the people will be very much affected especially with the long term drought. So, that way when we look into droughts so, on a watershed scale we can see that say drought is say we we we say that there is drought when deficit supply of moisture. So, that way so, it is a major natural hazards and it results in a significant social economical and environmental cause. So, the cause will not will not only in social terms economical terms, but also environmental terms. So, that means the ecosystem will be say very much affected. So, as we can see that this is a serious problem in many of the African countries you can see that this is a say world drought map. So, you can see that where all this black area is there it is it will say the the waterscourst it is too much. So, that way we can see that these are all these countries are very much drought prone and long term effect is there as far as drought is concerned. And then this blue region like India the another region it is waters stressed region so, there is we can say that many locations will be having short term droughts. So, the consequences as I mentioned say long term consequences like agriculture production will be affected then wherever whichever countries where say mainly depend upon hydropower production. So, when water is not available due to the droughts so, hydropower generation will be affected and then total economy will be affected. So, that way the consequences are very detrimental in many of the areas either on a say watershed basis or river basins basis or state basis or even the country wise. So, according to United Nations estimates we can see that about one third of world's population lives in areas with a water shortages. So, that means you can see that in many parts of India then China, Africa so many and the South America many locations water stress areas are there and even 1.1 billion people lacks access to safe drinking water. And then say almost about 70 million square kilometer area is say water stress area. So, that way the say on an annual basis we can see that about 60 billion people are affected say annually due to the droughts. And there is a gross domestic product loss of annually about 110 billion US dollars. So, that way this drought is a major disaster. So, you can see that now many developed countries like United States and European countries have done many many measures to to come back to with the droughts. And developing countries like India, China and then many of the South African many African countries are also now looking to various say interventions to deal with the short term droughts or long term droughts. So, now let us see what are the major impacts of these droughts. So, when we look into the impacts of droughts say most of the time we wish it is always better to critically analyze it by preparing the contingency plans. So, we have to analyze what are the the causes of droughts and then what kind of measures can be implemented so that to the the effects of droughts impacts of droughts can be reduced. So, that way it is always better to prepare a drought contingency plan. So, it is a document that identify specific actions that can be taken say before droughts during the droughts and after a drought to mitigate some of the impacts and conflicts that results. We can see that as we discussed the impacts are there on the economy, the agriculture, then the the the totally ecological system. So, that way when we when we prepare a contingency plans we should have contingency plans to deal say before the droughts situation can take place or during the drought and after the drought. So, after the drought what kind of measures to to regenerate back the system. So, that way we have to see. So, as I mentioned drought impacts say drought impacts a specific effect of droughts. So, there can be various types of impacts like a economical impact, environmental impact, impact on the human settlement. So, people also tend to refer to impacts as consequences or outcomes. So, that is say when we say drought impact it can be also sometimes we can call it drought consequences or the outcome of the droughts. So, impacts are symptoms of vulnerability. So, as we discussed so, we we can identify the the vulnerable areas due to the droughts and then based upon that we can have drought impacts we can assess the drought impacts. So, drought impact assessment is the process of looking at the magnitude and the distribution of droughts effects. So, how much intensity, how much is the magnitude say when we look into the drought and then what will be the effects of that magnitude say it is whether it is a very strong type of drought or the moderate or the the the same what what type of drought accordingly we can see that the the impacts and then its effects can be also analyzed. And then the next question is how what are the mitigation plans. So, when we look into drought mitigation so, we can have short time short and long time actions programs or policies that can be implemented in advance of droughts or in its early stages to reduce degree of risk to people property and productive capacity. So, with various climatic conditions we can predict in advance whether the possibility of drought is there or even some areas are always drought prone areas same and say that kind of areas we can take earlier measures to to come back this kinds of droughts and then say for example, wherever say reed or semi-reed regions we can implement say schemes like water harvesting schemes or total watershed management plans. So, that say that itself will serve as a mitigation plans and then so, that we can try to protect the people property and then the productive capacity of that particular watershed. So, that way on a watershed basis we can think about the droughts assessment drought impacts and then drought mitigations plans. So, now let us look into in details what are the consequences of droughts. So, here I have listed various consequences so, as I mentioned earlier there are significant consequences on environments. So, environmental consequences, consequences on agriculture then a health and economic consequences and social consequences. So, that way we can classify the drought consequences into environmental, agricultural, health, health, economic and social consequences. So, say some of the important consequences I have listed here. So, say for example, agriculture is concerned. So, consequences like say when the water availability is reduced. So, the crops production the crops yield will be reduced or even the crops itself will be affected. So, that say there is possibility of handling. So, diminished crop growth so, when the water stress takes place due to the less availability of water. So, diminished crop growth or yield productions and then carrying capacity of the livestock like either say flora and fauna the carrying capacity will be reduced. And then environment is concerned say some portion of the region become say dust bowls. So, the science storms will be taking place. So, like dust storms can take place then due to the agricultural problems related problems there can be famine. So, there is when the production is reduced then famine possibilities are there. And then say if an area becomes say drought prone then habitat damage will take place in say water availability will be reduced and then there will be related issues. Then as far as the health of the people is concerned malnutrition since due to lack of availability of food and water good quality water then dehydration and related diseases. So, especially in African regions many countries like Chad then say Ethiopia and all these regions we can see these kinds of issues health related issues like malnutrition dehydration and related diseases. And then the people migrated from one country to another country or one area to another area. So, mass migration will be the outcome of this. And then say the areas wherever the electricity production is power production is from hydroelectric power plants there is possibility of reduced electricity production since sufficient water will not be available then shortage of water for industries. So, industry yield will be reduced industry output will be reduced and then even there will not be water for sufficient water for domestic supply. And then all these related issues can create social unrest between the communities and then even there can be wars between the countries or between the states or between the regions. And then also when the temperature rises I mean there is no sufficient rainfall for long say many seasons or many years there is possibility of existing forests will be affected due to wildfires. So, that way we can see the consequences are too much as far as droughts are concerned. And it is too intense and then when we discuss about the watershed management plants especially we have to assess whether the concerned watershed is drought prone. And then we have to see that what kind of measures can be adopted to reduce the droughts problem or to mitigate the drought related problems. So, now let us look into some of the issues like the risk and vulnerability related to the droughts. So, when we discuss about the risk and vulnerability. So, risk is the potential adverse effects like a product of both the frequency and severity of the hazards and corresponding vulnerability. So, this is the definition of risk. So, in say the area is concerned we have to go for risk analysis. So, based upon the potential adverse effects and then risk analysis is the process of identifying and understanding the components associated with a drought risk and evaluation of alternative strategies. So, we can assess the what will be the risk related to the droughts say for the particular area or particular watershed. And then we can look into alternative strategies based upon the vulnerability analysis or risk analysis. So, then the time like risk management. So, risk management is opposite of crisis management a proactive approach actually we are looking for risk management. So, crisis management is once the situation become worse or the things happen then we have to see how to deal that is crisis management. But risk management if this particular area is say prone to risk. So, then we can have advance measures like in advance of droughts mitigation can reduce drought impacts and then we can have a relief and recovery decisions may timely in a coordinated and effective manner. So, that way we can go for risk management and then when we look into vulnerability. So, vulnerability indicates the characteristics activities or environments that makes them susceptible to effects of droughts. So, when we say about the drought vulnerability means. So, these are the characteristics or activities that make them susceptible to effects of droughts. So, we can say calculate the degree of vulnerability. So, for the particular area depending upon various conditions. So, this degree of vulnerability depends on environmental and social characteristics of the region and is measured by ability to anticipate a cop up with resist and recover from drought. So, when we discuss about the degree of vulnerability we have to see that with respect to the environmental related issues or social characteristics of that particular region or particular location we have to see that how we can say anticipate the issues and then how we can cop up with this the drought situations or how we can resist with respect to the situation arise from the droughts or we can once the drought occurs then how we can recover from the droughts. So, these kinds of questions to be answered. So, this is possible through risk analysis and vulnerability analysis related to the droughts. So, now let us look briefly into say the how the the which are the locations mainly drought prone or drought generally occurs. So, as I mentioned droughts can be either short term or long term. So, the droughts when we look into the say the drought situation in at various parts of the world. So, droughts normal you say it is a recurring feature of the climate in most parts of the world. So, especially in many of the African countries. So, this droughts say occurs say it is normally it is a recurring feature and then. So, this is actually the drought is actually one of the earliest documented climate events. So, you can see that many of the the epics test books or the Bible or the the the Hindu test books or all these say epics test books we can see that this droughts have been mentioned. And then say the recurrent droughts as I mentioned then we can see many parts of Africa like countries like Sudan, Chad, Ethiopia, East Africa etcetera. There are many countries where say year after year the droughts are there. So, decades of droughts in some of the locations some of the countries. And in especially in Asian countries like Himalayan basin say say in Mansun season say 3-4 months there will be severe floods and that will be followed by drought conditions. Since immediately the the the once the say rainfall occurs all the what will be drain say due to the topographical nature of the region and then next few months there is say possibility of droughts. So, these droughts are actually short term droughts, but in a country like India Rajasthan where erylt regions or semi erylt regions we can see that this this areas are very much drought point. Since generally in this region say the available rainfall is very very less even some regions just 20 centimeter average annual rainfall in in states like Rajasthan. And then Gulf countries some parts of China and then America say especially west coast of USA and then Amazon basins say for example there were some drought in 2005. And then say largest part of Australia these are these areas are erylt or semi erylt regions. So, where the normally the rainfall conditions are less and then say the the below average rainfall takes place for a number of years then this area become very much drought prone and then great issues will be there. And then as far as now we can see that in the the last few years we are discussing about the climate change and its effects. So, we can see that due to the climate change impacts say more areas will be affected by droughts and then the droughts become frequent frequently droughts may take place. So, the the climate changing impact assessment shows that whenever say due to the climate change say the the the possibilities are that the the the the short the rainfall may increase many locations, but that the rainfall will be short term. And then the the due to the increase in say evaporation and various climatic conditions the the frequency of droughts will be increased. So, these are some of the recent assessment which we can see in the literature. So, now let us look into various courses of droughts. So, we were discussing about the consequences of droughts occurrence of droughts. So, now let us look into what are the important courses of droughts. So, as I mentioned earlier say the mainly the important course is that the the the below average rainfall in the region. So, main impact is the main course is the rainfall effects. So, the so, this rainfall say wherever average annual possible rainfall conditions are not taking place say 25 percent less or 50 percent less like that. So, that locations become drought prone depending upon the other conditions also. So, rainfall effects can be changes in normal pattern. So, the just like reduction in presence of water vapor and its upward movements. So, say sufficient water vapor should be there and that should be upward movement should be there that way only rainfall takes place. And if it does not takes place then rainfall will be affected and above average the prevalence of high pressure systems then winds carrying continental rather than oceanic air masses. So, oceanic air masses means there will be say more vapor in the air masses, but if it is coming from say continental then there will be less say the vapor. So, that way the possibility rainfall will be reduced and then ridges of high pressure areas. So, that way the main course is say less rainfall taking place. So, that way these are some of the causes of this the rainfall effects. Then conditions like oceanic and atmospheric weather cycles. So, like say El Nino, South Southern Australia, Enso or Lany, El Nino that kind of phenomena like make drought a regularly recurring features of the of the various continents like America's along the Midwest and Australia. So, this can be also not only the rainfall effects, but rainfall is the main course, but the rainfall will be reduced or the monsoons will be affected due to oceanic and atmospheric weather cycles. And then also like other than the natural causes like human activities also can cause this type of drought situations. So, human activities like a deforestation, overfamming, excessive irrigation, soil erosion, then urbanization etcetera trigger droughts. So, that is we have a large number of examples. So, these kinds of problems like in say for example, India and some Gujarat-Kath region and Rajasthan regions say wherever say like deforestation, overfamming all those things taken place for say on a long period then we can see that the all the adverse effects takes place and that one of the effect is the possibility of droughts. Then say as we already discussed the climate change effects like greenhouse gases increase in greenhouse gases and climate change effects and global warming are also the causes of droughts. So, generally we can say that the all the effects will be the environmental degradation. So, this environmental degradation leads to the short term or long term droughts when we critically analyze the drought situation in many of the locations all over the world. So, now same with this background now let us look into the classification of droughts. So, we can classify the droughts into four categories depending upon the nature or the what is the after effects of the drought. So, we can classify the droughts into meteorological droughts, hydrological droughts, agricultural droughts and socio economic droughts. So, meteorological droughts actually defined by climatic variables say like a precipitation, humidity or evaporation and the duration of the dry period. So, this is actually meteorological drought is defined by this climatic variables. Then hydrological drought means it is associated with a effects on surface or subsurface water supplies. So, like stream, flow, reservoir, lake levels and ground water. So, even though rainfall takes place due to various reasons if the availability of surface water or ground water is reduced, then there is possibility of hydrological droughts. Then the third category is agricultural droughts. So, this links in backs of meteorological drought to agricultural like a focusing on precipitation shortages, then differences between actual and potentially vapour transpiration, soil water deficits, crop failure etcetera. So, this is actually the outcome with respect to the meteorological droughts and then socio economic droughts actually this occurs when the demand for an economic good exceeds supply as a result of a weather related shortfall in water supply. So, when water is not available, so the impacts related to socio or economical say related issues. So, that generally we call it as socio economic droughts. So, now, let us look into all these classifications into details. So, first one is the meteorological droughts. So, meteorological droughts, so as we discussed say whenever prolonged period with less than average precipitation takes place, then we can say that meteorological droughts takes place. So, this we can classify into three categories say when the rainfall in a particular location is say 25 percent decrease is there with respect to the normal that is one category. So, that is maybe we can say mild type droughts or say when the rainfall is or the precipitation is say 50 percent decrease with respect to normal then we can say moderate and when the rainfall is say 75 percent decrease with respect to the normal condition, then we will say severe drought conditions. So, that way see we can define the drought situation on the basis of degree of dryness. So, in comparison to some normal or average amounts and the duration of the dry spell. So, accordingly we can classify the meteorological droughts. So, based on the degree of dryness say for example, say according to the norms of Indian meteorological department IMD. So, they have adopted the following criteria for sub classification of meteorological droughts. So, like total seasonal rainfall is less than 75 percent of normal value affected by droughts, then moderate drought is if seasonal deficiency is between 26 to 50 percent, then say the third category is say compared to this say earlier first one is 75 percent, then 26 to 50 percent and then less than this is up to 25 percent. So, that way mild to moderate or severe drought conditions so that way we can classify. So, this meteorological droughts when we look say the we can also see with respect to the probability of drought occurrence. So, if you define the probability of drought occurrence say which is say in a particular area and the area is said to be drought prone if the probability is between 0.2 to 0.4 and we say that area is chronically drought prone area when the probability exceeds 0.4 and say for example, say depending upon this whether it is simply drought prone area or chronically drought prone area we can classify the area and then see with respect to various conditions or with respect to the probability of the drought occurrence. So, say for example, in India about 33 percent or one third of the total geographical area comes under drought prone area. So, say some areas like Rajasthan say Gujarat-Kach region these regions are chronic drought prone area and some areas are say depending upon the weather conditions or various conditions say in some part of Maharashtra, Vihar or Madhya Pradesh say simply drought prone area. So, then this meteorological drought depends on the onset breaks and withdrawal times of monsoon say for example, if we consider the monsoon condition in a country like India. So, this meteorological drought we will say that say what time the monsoon starts the onset of monsoon and whether the monsoon is continuously proceeding to the various locations of the country or whether it breaks or say what time it will be withdrawing the withdrawal times of the monsoons. Accordingly, we can say that whether meteorological drought takes place or not. So, actually Indian Meteorological Department generally predicts the rainfall conditions say one month before the monsoon and then they assess the drought situation with respect to various data at various locations of the country. So, then prediction of occurrence of drought is related to forecast of deficient monsoon season and its distribution. So, in India this is done by Indian Meteorological Department. So, then say as I mentioned the meteorological drought when we consider say severe drought if deficiency is above 50 percent of the normal value and then say we say that a drought year is there when the area affected by moderate or severe droughts either individually or collectively is more than 20 percent of the total area of the country. So, say a country like India when we say that this is a drought year say for example, 2000, 23 or 2009 say some of the drought years. So, we say that more than 20 percent of the total area of the country is affected by moderate or severe droughts. Say if we look into the literature we can see that say for example, India if we consider the data for between 1875 to 1991 about totally 23 drought years were there and say for example, 1918 being the worst year of the drought say 70 percent of the area of the country was affected in 1918 and then say this drought when we when we talk is say two concurrent or consecutive years drought years then it is becoming a severe problem. So, say for example, India 1904 and 1905 2 years were drought period and then 1965 and 1966 were drought years. So, actually even though this occurs rarely, but if it happens then the condition becomes very bad as far as the economical situation and various other conditions as far as the drought impacts are concerned. So, now next category is the hydrological droughts. So, hydrological droughts actually brought about when the water reserves available in sources such as aquifers, lakes and reservoirs fall below the statistical average. So, we can have a statistical average like if you consider reservoir groundwater aquifer systems like that. So, we say that there is a hydrological droughts when the water levels in this storage systems goes fall below the statistical average. So, this can be due to various reasons as I mentioned say in Kongon region in Maharashtra. So, even though severe heavy rainfall takes place during the monsoon season, but immediately after the rainfall this all the water will be drained due to the topography of the region. So, then there is say hydrological drought will be there next say 6 months like that. So, this hydrological drought means below average values of stream flow then condensing tanks, ponds and reservoirs, groundwater and soil moisture. So, all this will be less than the average values or minimum say mean values. So, that way when we look into hydrological droughts we can say 4 components of hydrological droughts we can see there are 4 components of hydrological droughts like what is the magnitude. So, say how much is the deficiency with respect to the statistical average in the reservoirs or other storage systems. Then how much duration whether it is say 6 months, 3 months like that and then what is the severity say like cumulative amount of deficiency how much is the deficiency taking place. So, and then what is the frequency of occurrence. So, whether it occurs say every year or once in 10 years like that. So, that way we can say certain the hydrological droughts. So, this hydrological hydrological droughts that way we can classify into surface water deficit and groundwater deficit. So, surface water aspects when we look into respect to hydrological droughts. So, the surface water aspects of drought studies related to stream flow and following techniques are commonly adopted like same whether the through the river or to the reservoir or in the pond what is the level of water. So, like low flow duration curves or low flow frequency analysis or stream flow modeling. So, all this indicates the surface water aspects. So, the importance of this surface water assessment or aspect is same when we look into design and operation of reservoirs we have to see the possibility of this type of hydrological droughts. Then diversion of streams for the reactions say when we are diverting the water from one river basin to another river basin or one a watershed to another a watershed we have to see. And then power whether the electric power is produced from hydro power then we have to see its related issues and then availability of drinking water and then water quality. So, when the level in the rivers or the water level goes down or the reservoir levels goes down then we can see the water quality will be affected. So, all these issues we have to see with respect to the surface water aspects. And with respect to the groundwater aspects we have to see the quantity the water level going down in the aquifer system. So, that the the beds become dry and then also the quality of the water will be also affected with respect to the groundwater aspects. So, these are the issues related to the hydrological droughts. So, now the theoretical classification in the agricultural droughts. So, droughts that affects crop production or the ecology of the range. So, that is so called the agricultural droughts. So, the principal criteria is the deficiency of rainfall or deficiency of the soil moisture. So, that the crops cannot grow properly and then yield will be reduced or the crop will be died. So, variety of definitions for drought studies at plant level we can put like root level or regional level or the with respect to soil moisture condition level or the the evaporation level like that. So, not only regional specific, but also crop and soil specific and this considers crop growth and water requirements. So, say for example, in India when we look into the kharif crop or the rabi crop say kharif crop is due to the monsoon time and rabi is after the monsoon time. So, now especially in the rabi season say the crops mainly depends upon the soil moisture available and then if there is no irrigation then we have to see say how much water is available and then with respect to soil moisture available how the crop growth is affected. So, this is with respect to time scale for water efficiency in agricultural drought. So, this may be for shorter period and compared to the hydrological or meteorological drought studies. So, when we look into the the agriculture droughts we can derive an index called erudite index. So, actually this erudite index is a numerical indicator of the degree of dryness of the climate at a given location. So, the erudite index indicates how severe is the agricultural droughts. So, there are number of definitions available for erudite index one of the commonly used definition is say erudite index is equal to potentially vaportranspiration minus actually vaportranspiration divided by potentially vaportranspiration multiplied by hundreds. So, the erudite index we can calculate either on a weekly basis or say once in 2 weeks like that and it is an indication of possible moisture stress experienced by the crops. So, we have to calculate the potentially vaportranspiration by equipments like lysimeter in particular region and then based upon that this calculations we can find the erudite index. So, erudite index anomaly actually it shows the departure of erudite index from its corresponding normal value represents the moisture shortage. So, when the moisture shortage is taking place then the crop will be affected crop will be water stress and then the crop yield will be affected. So, accordingly this erudite index same with respect to the erudite index we can say that when it is varying from 1 to 25 we can say it is mild erudite and then at 26 to 50 we can say it is moderate erudite and then when it is greater than 50 we can say it is severe erudite. So, and then some some other indexes like palmar index say which shows monthly moisture conditions and how it is departing from normal or conditions it is actually a short-term drought and wetness and then moisture availability index. So, these are all used to identify whether the particular area is say that area agriculture drought is there and then accordingly say whether it is short-term or long-term we have to go for various mitigation measures. Say for example, Indian Meteorological Department IMD produces erudite index anomaly maps of India on a weekly basis based on data from 169 stations spread over the country. So, say these stations are in various agroclimatic zones and then this erudite index will give an indication say how the crops will be affected whether the crops are water stressed and then whether corresponding agricultural droughts possibilities are there or not. So, that way this erudite index are useful in planning and management of agricultural operations and recently now we can use remote sensing techniques also to identify whether there is agricultural droughts or whether the area is arreared say through the when the remotely sensed data we can say it can be either microwave or specific type of say remote sensing data. So, that shows the soil moisture variation in the soil. So, this can be used for monitoring the agricultural droughts. So, this is about the agricultural droughts. So, now, let us look into the socio-economic droughts. Actually, socio-economic drought is a not a real classification drought, but what will be the impacts with respect to the either meteorological droughts or the hydrological droughts or the agricultural droughts. So, what will be the effect on the what will be the social effects or the economical effects. So, that is we are trying to indicate by socio-economic droughts. So, socio-economic drought are associated say it is associated with the supply and demand of some economic goods with elements of meteorological hydrological and agricultural droughts. So, with respect to the these meteorological hydrological or agricultural droughts we are coming with the conditions of socio-economic droughts. So, the socio-economic droughts occur say occurrence depends on the time and space process of supply and demand to identify or the classify or classify the droughts. So, what time the droughts takes place or how much time it takes place and what location. So, accordingly the socio-economic droughts occurrence will be there. So, water, forage, food grains, fish and hydraulic power. So, all these say depends upon weather and then correspondingly the variations say in the these the economical say the activities will be depending upon that. So, that way when the water availability is say reduced due to the droughts. So, then economical impacts will be there. So, then corresponding economic droughts and then corresponding social effects will be there that is the socio-economic drought. So, the demand for an economic goods exceeds supply as a result of a weather related shortfall in water supply and then we say that there is occurrence of socio-economic drought. So, that way say we have to assess with respect to the drought situation how the economical impacts will be there and then what are the social impacts and then corresponding consequences we have to analyze and then we have to see the remediation or mitigation measures. So, that way when we look into the socio-economic droughts the consequences are reducing hydraulic power production required the government to convert to more expensive important petroleum and stringent energy conservation measures to meet the power needs say for example, if it is the area the location the power production is through hydraulic power plants. Then demand for economic goods increases when population of per capita consumption increases say that can be another consequences. Then increase in supply by adopting efficient technologies for production construction or construction of reservoirs we can reduce the impacts. Then relative rate of change like critical factor if both are increasing say is demand increasing more rapidly than supply then we can see the relative rate of change how it is taking place. Then above criterion for future predictions or depending upon the consequences or the demand for economic goods. So, accordingly say we can assess the socio-economic impacts and corresponding socio-economic drought situation for the particular watershed or particular region. So, now say we have seen the classifications with respect to droughts. So, now let us look what are the impacts and then the vulnerabilities. So, we discussed this aspect earlier also we defined the the the risk and vulnerability. So, the drought risk is based on a combination of frequency severity and special extent of droughts. So, as a physical nature of droughts and a degree of to which a population or activity is vulnerable to the effects of droughts. So, as we discussed so, this is a combination of say frequency severity and special extent. Then degree of regions vulnerability depends on the environmental and social characteristics of the region. So, what are the environmental effects say what are the social effects. So, accordingly we have to define the degree of the the degree of vulnerability of that particular region. So, we have to investigate the drought vulnerability. So, first we can identify the relevant drought impacts and the trends over time and then we can rank the significant drought impacts with respect to the conditions and then we can investigate the underlying causes of drought impacts. So, that way we can have we can investigate the drought situation and then we can come up with say vulnerabilities and then even we can produce a vulnerability maps. So, when we discuss the drought vulnerability. So, we have to identify the relevant drought impacts and trends. So, like impacts are often symptoms of other underlying problems like vulnerabilities. So, for example, drought impact reporter developed by United States of America. So, this drought impact reporter shows how the system how whether particular areas vulnerable or not. Then we can have a ranking. So, ranking drought impacts. So, like ranking based upon the cause, area extents, trends over time, public opinion, fairness and ability of affected area to recover. So, according to various parameters we can produce a ranking and this ranking ensure equitable policy formulation. So, like you say economical helps or economical fund say particular funding for particular region. So, we can have this kinds of ranking and so that we can have equitable policy formulation that helps say for public and community advisory committees and groups of relevant scientists and policy makers. So, this kinds of ranking of drought impact is very important. So, for example, drought impact ranking matrix we can have a state or community level business or individual scale and from that we can easily identify what will be the possibility of the particular area affected to be affected by the droughts and what is that rank. So, then accordingly the various economic various mitigation measures or economical measures we can go for. So, when we discuss about drought vulnerability analysis. So, we have to investigate the underlying causes of drought impacts as we already discussed. So, drought vulnerability analysis provides a framework for identifying the social, economic and the environmental causes of drought impact. So, these all these issues we have already discussed earlier. So, then we may have to give some direct attention to underlying causes than to its results. So, what are the causes? So, according to the causes say we had to go for the mitigations or the the remediations. So, first we have to identify the causes than only to the results. So, that causes say for example, if we can go for say water conservation or inverter harvesting or build a dam. So, what kind of direct attention is needed. So, once drought drought risk causes is assessed action to mitigate the drought impacts we can look. Say for example, reduced crop yielded to lack of precipitation. So, then the results of vulnerability analysis the farmers did not use drought resistant seeds because they did not believe with them to be useful or cause were too high or because of some commitments to cultural beliefs. So, we have to say what I am saying we have to identify the causes and then we have to see the what is all vulnerability as far as the drought is concerned and then we have to come up with the mitigation measures. So, that way the drought impact assessment is very important. So, based upon this drought impact assessment only we can generate to the vulnerability maps. So, the impact assessment examines the consequences of a given event or change. So, drought impact assessments actually are useful identification of direct consequences and indirect consequences. As far as the drought is concerned there are certain direct consequences like directly the water will be reduced and then agriculture will be yield will be reduced and then indirect consequences will be the total ecological system will be affected. So, the flora and fauna will be affected like that. So, direct consequences of the drought like reduced crop yield livestock losses and the reservoir depletion. So, these are some of the direct consequences and then secondary consequences or the indirect consequences then corresponding socially affects. So, the people will be affected the society will be affected. Then the initial assessment identify the drought impacts, but does not identify the underlying reasons for these impacts. So, we can have an initial assessment as far as the drought situation is concerned and then we can go for a final assessment based upon the initial assessment by critically studying various aspects. So, that the drought impact can be properly assessed. So, when we look into the drought impacts. So, we have already discussed there are mainly three common types of impacts like first one is the economic impacts, second one is social impacts, third one is the environmental impacts. So, the economic impacts as we discussed can be agricultural, industrial. So, tourism related, energy related, financial or transportation related. So, these are some of the important economic impacts. Then so, social impacts like the social stress or the health of the people are affected, then malnutrition and then there is no facility for recreation and then public safety is affected, then the cultural and aesthetic values are affected. So, these are some of the social impacts of the droughts. Then we when we look into environmental impacts like the flora and fauna are affected, the planet the area is affected, ecosystem is affected, then if the wetland is affected, then surface water and groundwater qualities are affected. So, like that. So, the number of environmental impacts will be there. So, say when we look into the drought assessments, we can produce say various tables in tabular forms, various parameters and then we can come up with a checklist whether the with respect to various condition, whether it is there are historical situation is there or current how it is or there is potential drought. So, that way say a checklist selection can be based upon either a common or extreme droughts or combination of the two and then historical droughts that identify the drought of record for the area and to assess the impacts of that droughts. Then a current drought like with the current knowledge that you have about your local area, if another drought of record were to occur tomorrow or what the local impacts may be and then record them on the checklist under the current column. Then potential droughts like that speculate what the impacts of the same droughts would be for the area in 5 or 10 years time and then record this in the potential column. So, that way we can come up with a checklist with respect to the drought when we look into the drought impact assessments and then with respect to the conditions like a severe moderate or low in bags or we can put with historical drought situation, current drought situation or the area is potential drought situation. So, that way say for example, here this checklist are taken from western drought coordination council of United States. So, here they have put an economic assessments. So, the checklist for economic impacts. So, like loss from crop production various columns are there and loss from diary and livestock production. So, the columns are given like what is the historical situation, what is the current situation, then what is the potential drought situation. So, we can keep we can give ranks for the each of this and then see whether the area is say historically drought prone area or current drought is there or the area is potentially drought prone. Then say with respect to the environmental impacts this also taken from western drought coordination council website. So, their environmental related issues like damage to animal species, then damage to planet species, loss of wetlands, wind and water erosion of soils. So, like that here again we can have the checklist like historical situation, current and potential. So, that way we can put the way the tick mark or checklist and then we can come up whether the area is how much drought prone and we can have the drought assessments. And then if you consider the social impacts are concerned, then the social impacts like mental and physical stress, then health related flow problems, reductions in nutrition, the loss of human life, then public safety from forest and range fires like that. So, this is the checklist for social impacts and whether it with respect to historical or current or potential what are the possibilities. So, this checklist shows how the system will be behaving. So, that way we can have the checklist and then we can assess the drought. And as far as drought assessment is concerned say around the world various agencies assess the drought situations not on a drought other natural hazards like earthquake, tsunami and other flooding etcetera all these disasters. But drought is also one of the disaster which various agencies are monitoring like national climatic data center, then say NCDC, then International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, then Center for International Disaster Information, then relief where United Nations Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. So, all these agencies with respect to various parameters with respect to various checklist they assess various locations whether it is drought prone or how much severity can be there with respect to drought. So, all these situations and they will be assessed and then it will be put there in their websites and from that also that their websites we can identify a particular region or particular areas drought prone and related drought assessment can be done. So, we are discussing today the drought assessment and related issues. So, some of the important references used for today's lecture are listed here. Then before closing down few questions like total question like a study critic with the drought problems in India, analyze the causes of droughts in India, then what are the consequences of these droughts, how the drought vulnerability can be assessed. So, these details you can get through from various websites of Ministry of Water, Source, Environment Ministry, Agriculture Ministry like that. Then say few questions for self evaluation, what is droughts and what are its impacts, discuss the drought occurrences at different parts of the world, what are the major classifications of droughts, illustrate adoragical droughts and related issues, describe socio-economic droughts, discuss drought vulnerability analysis. Then if you assignment questions what are the major consequence of droughts, what are the important causes of droughts, discuss the meteorological drought and related issues, what is agricultural drought and how to classify it, what are the common types of drought impacts. So, say today we are discussing about the droughts and its consequences and then the classification of droughts and then how we can do the drought assessment.