 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network There is an old song that goes I fought the law and the law one and that can often apply to Betty markets as well because typically when you are super far off in the markets You're probably the one who is wrong Betty markets tend to be very very efficient So if you disagree vehemently with of what the market is saying There's a good chance. You're the one who's actually wrong and not the market And that is a scary proposition for today because there are a good number of strikeout props Or I cannot comprehend why the market is where it is. So Coffee out to the ply markets are efficient. I could be very wrong with all this But there are some spots where I do feel like the market may be a bit off So we're gonna dive into where those spots are for today also talk some muddy lines for tonight to get you ready It talks in baseball for today. This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research here to break down Monday nights MLB slate and break down my favorite money lines and strikeout props that I like over at Fandall sports book We'll dive into all that here in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We had JJ's that car racing on last Friday talking about some season-long player props He likes over at Fandall sportsbook We want to get JJ's insights on this year talking about building projections and much more find that on the covering the spread podcast feed as Well as the Fandall YouTube page and Fandall TV plus Fandall TV plus now available not just Apple TV Roku and Amazon fire TV But also you can go to Fandall comm slash watch and pull it up there to see up and Adams Logging into your Fandall account and also covering the spread and the solo shot Get ready for NFL season with incredible offers from Fandall America's number one sports book right now new customers Can bet $5 and get $200 in bonus bets guaranteed plus all customers who bet $5 will get $100 on NFL Sunday ticket from YouTube and YouTube TV Now is the best time to join Fandall the app is easy to use you can be on everything from spreads to player props and more Fandall a visual partner of the NFL must be 21 plus and present in select states. I Lost my spot Fandall suffering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC First online real money wager only $10 first deposit required bonus issued is non Which rubble bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt restricts his apply see terms at sportsbook.fandall.com gambling problem call 100 gambler or visit Fandall comm slash Rg in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee and Virginia call 1-800 next step protects next step to 533 for 2 in Arizona 188-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut 1-800 9 with it in Indiana 1-800 522-4700 or visit ksgamblinghealth.com in Kansas 1-877-770 stop in Louisiana MD gambling health at orc in Maryland 1-800 gambler.net in West Virginia call 1-800 522-4700 in Wyoming Hope is here was a gambling helpline ma.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24 7 support in Massachusetts He ain't call 1-8778 open wire text open Y in New York NFL Sunday ticket offer ends 918-23 no refunds terms and embargoes imply hundred dollars off NFL Sunday ticket not YouTube TV YouTube TV base plan required to watch YouTube TV Redemption requires a Google account and current from a payment commercial use is excluded Let's dig in now to tonight's NLB say and start things off with the money lines I like over at Fandals sports book and begins with a game with a couple of teams of playoff aspirations That is he Boston Red Sox Taking on the Houston Astros we've seen some movement in this game when I looked at it this morning It was the Red Sox to win at minus 120 their plot or they are now down to minus 132 That puts their implied win-outs up to 56.9 percent My model has them at 60.6 percent to win so make sure you shop around as always see if you can get that minus 120 out there somewhere, but I Still got enough of a cushion where I can still feel good about the Red Sox You're again 60.6 percent for me and the new implied odds at minus 132 are 56.9 percent reason I was on the Red Sox to begin with is because of the issues occur the struggles of Christian Javier has had Javier really rough summer and The struggles for him began when he started to cut back on his curve ball usage So I thought that maybe that was an explanation Maybe there was an injury with Javier where he couldn't throw that pitch effectively So he wasn't using it But then last time out Javier did go back to that curve ball He was facing Boston this is the same team he'll face tonight and It didn't help him very much Still had just three walks compared to three strikeouts That have three earned runs across five innings and that game was at home For the full season now Javier has a 4.93 skill interactive era with a 4.73 expected era So Javier went back to the curve ball did not get better results So I kind of can't explain Why things have been so rough for him recently He's facing Boston again That also does mean it's a reefing match up here for Chris sale and sale Vila went back up a bit last week And I thought that was somewhat encouraging because he'd been way down the start before that so Maybe it's not an injury. I don't know it was not encouraging regardless for Chris sale and the answers did get to him So maybe we'll just see a lot of offense in this game the total is at 10 runs justifiably I think for tonight, but I do think the red sox are the preferred side here given that Javier Has not had the same peripherals through his struggles as Chris sale has so I'd go with Boston here still value minus 132 But as always make sure you shop around And try to identify the best price for that Second money line for tonight is the minnesota twins taking on the cleveland guardians The twins money line currently at vandal sportsbook is minus 164 and I do show value there My model is the twins win odds at 68.4 percent versus their implied odds at 62.1 percent went to phasing xavian curry who Has had some rough underlying numbers despite okay results as he has been getting stretched out We've had nine outings on curry where he's been Getting his pitch count up very slowly yet a game last week that was suspended because of rain So kind of nothing could do about that one but across those nine outings Curry with the increased pitch counts has led up a 46.7 percent hard hit rates with a 54.9 percent fly ball rate And now you put those rough bad at ball numbers up against the twins team that despite the fact they adore striking out they can make a lot of hard contact and Make your life pretty tough because they have a 112 w RC plus against righties on the current active roster That is including the massive strike out rate, which means that when they make contact They're doing very good things with it twins are starting kenta myata here Myata hasn't the best results always but 3.26 skill interactive era from myata since he returned from the il So cleveland's offense has been better overall recently than they were earlier on this year the w RC plus against righties up to 93 right now I still think the twins should be a bit more heavily favored here So I do like the twins money line which is currently minus 164 at fan dual sports book I do think if you don't want to pay the minus 164 there are ways you could potentially tie this in I showed some value on kenta myata strikeout prop over 5 and add plus 104 It is a very low strikeout matchup Which is why that number is so low But if you want to tie that together uh with the twins money line at minus 164 a same game parlayer That would be plus 188 it's not the best number by any means But I would understand if you wanted to go that route personally as you know prefer to play things straight up for the most part I do think there that is a route if you wanted to consider it Also could look at some twins uh home run props Looking at things right now don't see a ton. I really like personally so again Would prefer to go with things straight up But you can look at the myata strikeout prop look at some home run props If you don't want to lay the minus 164 straight up with the minnesota twins Let's dig in now to some strikeout props and let's dig into a game where I am way off from market for both the starting pitchers In this one that is the a's taking on the mariners and the strikeout props here are Brian woo under six and a half strikeouts at minus 116 And kyle mutler under five and add strikeouts minus 132 I am way far off from both these numbers and the biggest one for me is woo because it's a pitch count related recommendation for me because He came off the il last week and it was a pretty short stint He was on the il for uh mist 18 days came back last week and Didn't ever rehab start so i didn't project it for 70 pitches there He threw 65 and the typical progression is he had about 15 on for one start to the next So I have woo projected for 80 pitches for tonight And it was a forearm issue for woo So maybe that number is even lower than what i'm projecting But if I put woo's strike or pitch count projection to 80 pitches I have a strikeout projection at 4.64 again His strikeout prop is six and a half with minus 116 on the under the only way I could understand having woo's uh Projection this high is if you hadn't projected to get a full leash and I don't see how that happens given me through Just 65 last week just for funsies. Let's uh, let's plug in a full pitch count here for brian woo's Let's put him up to I've got an 80 Let's increase that number to 100 and see where I have woo if I were to do that If I put woo's strikeout projection up to 100 I've still got him at 5.8 strikeouts So even if I give him 100 pitches I'm not getting the six and a half as being the proper number for this so that tells me something's up again If you fight the market the market's probably gonna win But I don't really understand why this number is so high So I will take woo under six and a half strikeouts at minus 116 at vandal sportsbook other side of that game as mentioned is kyle muller under five and a half minus 132 and again I don't get this one personally I get I can kind of understand it better than I can with woo because it's a very high strikeout matchup The maritors have a 27.5 strikeout right on their active roster against lefties this year But muller has gone under gone over five and a half strikeouts one time this entire year You face seattle once they were a high strikeout team back on may 22nd as well And in that game just three strikeouts there across five innings now in muller's defense He has had a demotion to the minor sense Then maybe his strikeout rate ticked up up there to explain why this number is so high right now But in triple a muller strikeout rate was 16.9 percent So even with the matchup being what it is. I have muller projected for 3.7 strikeouts tonight Again, he's numbers five and a half at minus 132 So I wanted to explain to you my rationale behind having my projections where they are so that you can You can kind of weigh that versus the mark and say okay Is jim the one who's wrong or is the market the one who's wrong because it's very possible. I'm wrong That's how sports betting works. You're wrong a lot But that's my rationale for being low on both these guys for tonight They are in the same games if you want to pair them together and take the two strikeout props together The same game problem that is plus 225 you can do that But I want to play things straight up with woo and with muller Taking woo under six and a half at minus 116 and taking muller under five and a half minus 132 Those are the two spots where I am most off in the market Where I'm having the hardest time envisioning why those numbers are there Let's talk about two other strikeout props I do like for tonight though One of them is that course field and course feels a spot that does tend to drag strikeouts down in part because You let up a lot of runs there and may not be able to go deep in games But also because movement is different at course field than it is elsewhere because the elevation is so high and the atmosphere is so Thit so we do tend to see strikeouts go down I have brice elder under four and a half strikeouts minus 150 which you can get right now at vandal sportsbook And this was a bit of a surprise to me because I think that my model tends to undersell the course effect with regards to strikeouts So whenever I see an under a course field, it always kind of does entice me Because there are more routes there could be because of the atmosphere, you know They let up a lot of runs Maybe the pitches don't move as much and they make a lot of contact multiple routes to an under there As for elder his strikeout numbers have been on the decline recently and That's before we account for course field Uh, we look at elders past 11 starts his velocity has been down on his sinker in that time and With the decrease velo on his sinker elder is just a 13 strikeout rate He has gone over four and a half strikeouts just twice in an 11 start sample So I have elder projected well below this number at 3.3 strikeouts. So again, I am way off of the market I can better understand why this one is here than I can with woo or with muller because it is the rockies They're a very bad offense elder has been effective Despite the lack of strikeouts because he is so skilled at suppressing hard contact But not a big enough strikeout guy for me to justify a number of four and a half Even a minus 150 on the under when he's at course field So I do think elder under four and a half minus 150 a spot where I get why the market is where it is But I still want to take the under personally for tonight The final one is one where I'm actually a bit more aligned at the market But do you still like the under in part because the under is plus 126 that is on Grayson Rodriguez Under five and a half strikeouts plus 126 at fandals sports book He's taking on the chicago white socks tonight and the white socks offense Obviously has not had a good year But they're also not a high strikeout offense the active roster for the white socks 22.2 percent strikeout right against righties for this year And that's a slightly better than average number. So not a high strikeout team despite their issues If we look at Rodriguez since he came back up He has pitched really really well and it's led to me being on the oil's money line at times when Rodriguez is pitched but We got 3.24. Yeah, right. So he's been very good And it's it's also correlated with the changes pitch mix because he's used his cutter less often So I think that is the most relevant sample for Rodriguez and looking at him since he came back up But Rodriguez hasn't had more than six strikeouts in any of those seven games He has gone under five and a half and four out of seven I haven't projected for 5.14 strikeouts tonight. So His odds are going under five and a half are greater than 50 percent for me We're getting plus money on the under at plus 126 So this one i'm a lot closer to the market that I am with the others But again, we're getting plus 126 in the under. I think that's pretty enticing. So I do think that that's the right way to go taking the under on Rodriguez at uh, plus 126 So the strikeout props for tonight Um Over at fangirl sportsbook. I like Rodriguez under five and a half plus 126 I like Kyle Muller under five and a strikeouts minus 132 Bryce elder under four and a strikeouts minus 150 and brian woo under six and a half strikeouts minus 116 as mentioned again Always proceeded caution when you're way off in the market if you're building out a model and Don't align the market at all probably going to be a red flag I've run this model for a while. That's why I feel more okay um Being off from the market and having some confidence in it But you know, you do want to proceed with caution when that is the case That's where my model is leading me for tonight That's all we have for baseball for today But I do got to go back through last week recapping the weeklong recommendations From here on the show as an accountability segment for us here at covering the spread Our first college football show this season was a successful one Our guest as always was dr. Ed fang you can find him on twitter at the power rank and check him out On his website the power rank dot com Ed said he won a Notre Dame minus 20 and a half against navy in ireland And they would have almost covered 40 and a half because Notre Dame won that one 42 to 3 pretty easy coast to a win for adding that one. So a good way to start things off with ed We're going to talk week one in college football coming up on wednesday. It is wild. Oh, we are already there Our epl guest was austin kass from match week number three find austin on twitter at austin kass He is a senior editor far from the research and we did get finally some regression here With austin the two bets for manchester city over two and a half goals even money and new castle the win at plus 115 man city scored two But those came in the 63rd and 88th minutes and they couldn't get a third in there So under two and a half did hit there for man city and the new castle lost two to one So still four and two start to the year for austin, which is very impressive regression was going to come eventually So we'll get awesome back here on the show later on this week talk match week number four Good start overall for the year despite this past week for austin I had nascar and formula one for this week nascar and datona formula one in the netherlands No broken risks in nascar. Let's start things off there. That's a lot cheerier for nascar I had kevin harvick to podium at 10 to 1 eric jones to win at 35 to 1 and Heading to the final restart harvick was leading and there were two laps left He was leading the two rfk cars brad keselowski and chris busher Were on the outside harvick had chase elliott behind him and elliott Didn't give him a good push on the restart So harvick fell behind the rfk cars got linked they ran away and they were gonna win So harvick is running third still in contention to cash the podium bet at 10 to 1 But then elliott did what he had to do, you know, he needed to Get out of line try to win this race to in order to try to qualify for the playoffs So he ditched harvick harvick from about to nine did not cash the podium That was disappointing But he was in contention with two laps to go leading the race the two laps to go Thought he had a chance But was not meant to be chris busher winning his third race in the past five, which is incredible He's always been a guy. I've liked a lot. So happy to see busher doing that Even though it did not help me catch a ticket on saturday eric jones 35 to 1 Ran pretty well the entire night, but finished 18th. So nothing on the nascar side of things In f1. I originally had two bets Those were daniel rickardo top 10 at plus 4 10 and carlo signs to finish top 6 at plus 1 15 Ricardo broke his wrist in practice on friday So he did not race and I feel like I cursed him because on friday I had rickardo, uh break his wrist and I had Ryan seag in the extended series race didn't talk about this in the show But talked about in the betting guide over uh on fandal research Seag failed inspection three times had to start at the back had to um Had to do a pass through penalty to start the race That was not great and then also rally herbs to blew a tire after searing issues immediately in that race So friday, I cursed everybody I touched when it comes to nascar when it comes to racing betting. So Sorry, daniel rick. It is probably my fault. You broke that wrist sounds like he'll miss just one more race, but pretty tough Now fandal's house rules rule that as a void bet because rickardo did not start the formation lap That is the rule for formula one for nascar I believe if they attempt to qualify then the then the bet counts But for f1 if they don't start the formation lap the bet is void And so that should have been voided. I bet rickardo had a different sports book and they rated that as a loss Which was incorrect. So if you see that reach out to customer support. I did that they corrected it, but um Know the house rules of where you're betting especially when it comes to racing because it can be a bit more weird Know the house rules make sure they're being followed because They make mistakes not trying to make mistakes, but it does occasionally happen If it does happen reach out to customer support and make sure it gets amended The other one was uh, carlo signs Not very fast in practice, uh, but the rain came during qualifying and signs is a good driver So he qualified sixth there. He ran top six the entire race. He had good strategy whereas his teammate charle claire did not Um Ferrari got a Ferrari once again and signs wound up finishing fifth in that race Not an easy win because he had lewis hamilton and lando norris right on uh, right in his gearbox towards the end of the race But he was riding the edge the whole time did cash it at plus 115. So got the f1 there got the void on riccardo Got close on nascar, but couldn't quite get there That's gonna wrap things up for today here on covering the spread I won't talk baseball for today because I realized this is my last week to talk baseball for the year So squeezing that and I'll probably talk some baseball once again tomorrow as a result because I don't want to give it up Just quite yet. So make sure you subscribe to covering the spread to get these just as they're posted each and every week day Also, check us out on fan dual youtube and fan dual tv plus If you have any questions for me, I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast and check out fan dual research at fan dual research Want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck with your mlb bets for tonight We'll talk to you once again tomorrow This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network