 The following is a presentation of TFNN The power trading hour with your host David white Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618 now David white and Welcome all to another excellent edition of the power trading hour and as always We come to you at the appointed time The following takes place between 2 p.m. And 3 p.m. So what are we doing here today? Well, we had yeah, I wouldn't call it Vapor volume we had the light volume one of the lightest volume expiration days in a while But about 10 and a half billion shares So it wasn't a big day neither was Thursday We're coming in today with about six billion shares as we hit this so probably some ryer around nine and a half to ten billion by the end of the day Had a lot of people Or they had very few people excuse me that were short the market When it started heading down lower we get a fairly good taste of it by buying Spipoots last week. I didn't hang on to it long enough mostly because You don't get the kind of action we had on Friday on options expiration that much I thought it was going to be a big day Didn't know that that Chairman Powell was going to drop the proverbial baby Ruth and the punch bowl. We're still getting through that he continued on over the weekend raining on our parade So that's it now he's going to talk again on Friday So the question is which Powell do we believe do we believe the Powell at the last FOMC? Meeting We believe the Powell from Thursday. Well Actually didn't do it Overtly Thursday night, but that's when he was starting to talk up Getting a little bit more hawkish certainly Let that rip and several places on Friday and continued on over the weekend Saying that he probably wasn't hawkish enough and that's kind of really put the Put the What do they don't don't harsh my shroom? What is it? What are the what are the dopers say you're harshing my? Something or other anyway So we've got a little bit that we don't have a lot of short positions So there aren't a lot of natural buyers as we've pulled back So it's just kind of one of these light volume things. It's not uncommon to get this kind of action Going into the end of August. I think the market's been a little bit high on its own supply But I didn't think we were gonna get this much kind of late in August generally It's a little bit more sub subdued Generally when we do have these kind of Market bottoms everybody tends to get rather Barish right at the lows and then we go into lighter volume as we will next week into Labor Day weekend Normally I try to take off on vacations during when there isn't much going on so I'll be starting my vacation next Monday and be gone till the 6th of September but Generally, there's just a lot of very light volume in that last week people to get too short Find out that It's problematic We've been talking about how high the the numbers for the dark pools were and that Conoted that many of the retail folks just weren't involved as much anymore in that push to the highs But at the same time Did we get a lot of volume on Thursday's move on Fridays and today's? It's not a real blowout nor I wouldn't call it a burning bush in the way of volume either You know Five ten percent difference is not that big. We've had down moves in the neighborhood of 18 19 billion shares, but even on Friday. We only did about four and a half. Well, yeah about Was it? Not four and a half billion. We did 450 billion overall dollars is not Big on the scale when we've almost hit a trillion on a single day So It's kind of light and variable Don't have a lot of people to buy on the way down because they didn't get short So Yeah, we're probably lost a little bit People are waiting for some kind of blowout probably to get long again or cover their shorts If they did have short positions, but kind of the standard Just a week trading going into the end of August and Labor Day 877-927-6648 Email me at path at tfnn.com and of course you could always put a message in the den And I'm not a big fan of Jay Powell's Talking the market up and then talking talking it down and yeah, it just seems like Depends on which week you catch him But you know, I've never been a big fan of economists. I've never found any that were right remember in I think it was in 2002 or three This big organization down here in Florida started saying it was it had great models and it was going to predict Hurricanes down here in Florida and And so the first year they predict 12 hurricanes and five named storms We had nothing in fact they started a business of predicting hurricanes And we had the fewest hurricanes and almost no Storms that actually hit Florida for about 15 straight years and that is the problem trying to predict the unpredictable but I think Especially economists the people at the Fed they think that they can put a caliper on a lot and for the reality The economies maybe what people think it is And I know that they try to push that around a little bit I Don't think you know they can add and move interest rates up and down but It's more of the zeitgeist that really determines what's going on and As far as elections everything else I think Probably no bigger sign out there than the gas pumps for determining what people actually think of The way that the world is going now they've come back a little bit but we've had a kind of a long summer of High gas prices and most people looking into the winter looking at extremely high natural gas prices or heating oil and You know, it's just a massive tax going forward. 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We're not seeing any kind of massive Exit but there aren't a lot of people to be natural buyers not a lot of people being short six and a quarter billion shares on the CBO E consolidated tape and Yeah, that's kind of yet I did have a question. We're not going to do history today, but I did have a question so I wanted to do this instead and It was about moving averages had a question about it. I said I'd talk about it today I wanted to find this chart and the question was why do I don't spend a lot of time talking about moving averages And why do I think a lot of other folks don't either? In technical analysis Well, one of the few things that you know if you've done any signal processing is That any moving average is always 90 degrees out of phase To the underlying signal. So if you have a nine-day moving average, it could be wrong by two and a half days or so Yeah, two and a third. Yeah, something like that so Generally what a lot of people or a lot of technicians did early in on was decide that What we want to do is we need to kind of lean on Whatever the moving average is a little bit to try to help it fix it because it's got a deadly flaw Ie it's always going to be wrong half the time. It's going to be wrong the first quarter It's going to trend with this the stock or You know if it was a perfect If it was a perfect sine wave, it's going to be wrong The first quarter it's going to be right the middle 50 percent It's going to be wrong again at the bottom by a aura at the top depending on which way you're looking at it By being earlier late 25 percent So really end up a with a signal that's about 50 percent correct, which doesn't do you a whole lot of good so I tend to you like very short-term moving averages and You know if you go back and actually go through the data you're gonna find that They can help you trade somewhere around six to nine days There isn't much different between six and nine Pass that you start getting into a lot of other problems. There is a bit of of a ballistic Move in those nine-day six-day moving averages IE if you fired a gun at 45 degrees up in the air That's going to be that the longest trajectory it's going to fly the longest it can But after it leaves the barrel and goes a little distance. It's going to start being moved around by things like The wind and other things so the longer it's out of the barrel, you know, you may be shooting into a Wind you may have a wind at your back So being able to figure out what happens after it goes a little bit not all the way But not even up to the apex tends to be problematic, so What did people do? Well, they decided to try to detrend or take care of that problem a couple of ways I like the displaced moving average where you take a very short average like three days And then put that line out three days into the future. I like that kind of ballistic look at the market the other things that they do is they'll call it an oscillator and that means if you're using like a 19-day moving average then you double that to 38 and Hopefully the side effects of both of them will null out the problems kind of like the noise canceling headphones That are so popular now or used to be headphones now their earbuds Which do the same thing they just take the reverse of a microphone that's not got the signal in it and Introduce it and try to try to balance out as much as it can So I if I was gonna use anything it would be more of an oscillator and by using two different time frames You try to know out the weakness in one with the other and by combining them you have Basically a much better version of it But as I said, I'm kind of more of a fan of the shorter term ones You can do some work of your own and take a look at it You'll see that you know You really probably don't want to do a lot 50 days and 200 day moving averages for higher or lower prices If you take all the data out there, you're gonna see a little blip at 50 You're gonna see a little blip at 200. They're pretty small But they are definitely there, but guess what they don't go very you should probably should have a nice bell curve Somewhere starting at 190 days and maybe coming back off that at 210 But you don't you see the same thing which is see a nice little one or two day blip at 50 and you see a nice one or two day a blip at 200 and So does that actually mean anything in the scheme of things for me? I don't know how to trade it I've never seen anybody give a good explanation about it other than it's above the 50 day or below the 200 day I like a lot of the stuff that I use but oscillators and Generally you want to take one and double it to get the second one. I was actually having a conversation about why the oscillator in the Was it the summation index and some of the things with my McClellan oscillators are 19 days and 39 days instead of 38 and It that you know You have to remember a lot of this technical analysis happened before we had computers of any kind of a decent Value, but even at the first computers when a lot of these stuff were done They didn't have any math coprocessors so everything had to be done with integer math so you'd scale it up and Just so happens that when you look at the alpha in 19 and 38 day It's a 0.5 on one and and one and point one or excuse me it's point oh five on one and point one on the other It makes it very easy if you're using integer math to scale up and scale down. So They did done 19 days and 39 days which is one more than you would think but it made it a lot easier on What I would call primitive computers to get that done so anyway 90 day, I mean 50 day 200 day am I going to use them? No If someone can show me Some kind of study that really shows There's some kind of a pot of gold underneath those Call in or email me and I'll take a look at it, but I've done the work myself and Is there something there? Yes, is it small as far as I can tell? fairly small and You know, I never can in the stock markets Move away from the self-fulfilling prophecy or a lot of people use it So it works was there anything underneath it that actually made it work or is it just everybody accepts that is The way things are so it does work that well It's a very small extent. I look at it as a small self-fulfilling prophecy. 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I don't see any signal yet So we'll see off 90 on the s&p cash Yeah, 90 off 635 on the down as Nick down 312 Russell 43 crude oils down 52 Scents so not much action in that gold soft about 13 bucks 1750 so Yeah, it's kind of a soft market as we said earlier in the show in the last week or so the the dark pool numbers were up Fairly significantly on a percentage basis Over the last few weeks, so we didn't have a lot of people chase this rally all the way up We had a lot of people in the lower part so there aren't a lot of People that to get really tossed out a lot or let me put it this way a much higher majority of shares were bought by a big street names instead of retail traders in the 401k So I'll keep an eye on it, but I don't see any real signal out here I found some stuff that I want to buy and And Kind of looks like a fire sale. I don't know if that Translates into the more general market out here, but you know, you can have these markets. I've heard them called Paper cuts and that is that they just keep bleeding a little bit after with the big gap down They just keep bleeding and bleeding and bleeding until you have some kind of blowout in the low And that's what you get but no big Uh Outstanding ticks that I see at the moment and that's generally what you're gonna have to have you're gonna have to have a decent size Moment that makes people think hey, maybe it is actually time to buy you have a question First question of the day is about the TLT So let's take a look at it we've been looking for it to get back down to the 112 level We got that test today. It is on more volume To to what is it? Well, it was more volume on Friday 16 million shares We're into that candle again today, but it's lighter volume about 6.2 Million shares of the TLT that goes into the 15 million share low on July 8th so again You know, it'd be nice if both days had decent volume that exceeded the previous one So we have one that was a little bit more and now we have one that's kind of a whole lot less But we haven't pierced that one 1205 and my guess is that we will do that that does set up a retest of the 108 12 low in the Bonds etf on June 16th that had 26 million shares Okay, so you had a very nice and high volume low actually back on the 13th of June You had almost 37 million shares in this So we are getting back into where there was a lot of volume before We'll just see whether or not the volume picks up Maybe that's going to tell us a little bit whether the Fed is as hawkish as they are At least trying to make us believe that they are Okay, SMA H Okay, it's a comment from the day your SMH view last week spot on thank you. We came back here I'm not exactly sure or remember what I said other than we were probably going to retest this low would probably be my Remembrance of this the 9th low back here on what is that? Yeah August 9th You had about 7 million shares. You got about 2 million shares in there today So again, not a massive amount of volume on that one You also have a gap up on the 27th of July with 5 million shares So do we get back a little bit? We could But again, not a lot of volume, but no signal that says this thing's going to turn on a dime And that dime is going to be in your pocket But we'll see Yeah, you have to You have to look at it that a whole paper cut market of Of Just it just sits there and it's painful and it just continues to kind of bleed and every time you touch it It bleeds a little bit more. It's not like you're going to lose an arm It's not dropping a hundred points in the S&P at a time, but dropping enough that after the initial Gap lower I thought you know with the light volume on Friday There was probably a good chance that we'd go up and retest 4,200 before we would roll over again or make a big decision and Didn't we just continued to have that kind of paper cut from the open this morning Okay, so that's anyway the SMH is certainly you don't have a lot of volume into the previous low so Yeah on the 9th 6.8 million shares today so far to Going back into that could you get a little bit more as I said, there's not a lot of people that are short So they're not a lot of natural buyers. I tend to give a little bit more error on that side Let's go back into the usual suspects in VDA And you're down on this one the last Low that you're into now was on the ninth It had 66.8 million shares for Nvidia Today you're into it so far with about 28 Million shares again just because you're in it with a light volume doesn't mean it can't go lower It just means that you know if you continue with light volume probably going to get a fairly decent bounce and That that you're probably looking on the right side of the market being a little bit higher But you don't have any signal yet to say that you should be froggy and start jumping at this There's just very quiet on the Western front Anyway, you've got the chance of going back down and testing the previous low that was at 167.24 and What was the last year 170? 52 on Nvidia Yeah, if a stock doesn't act right then you're probably not going to make any money I thought maybe we get with all the short sellers and in video and AMD We probably get a bigger bounce these stocks are massively shorted over the last few days but you know what you've got to AMD already below the previous low that was on the ninth also that had 89 million shares But you're just into it with 46 million shares So can you have markets that go up on very little light volume? Yes Can you have markets go down on very light volume? You can have that too I don't see anything else out here than maybe On a chart basis you have some support at 90 ish But again, how many people are going to jump in here? I don't see any evidence of that quite yet Let's go ahead and look at some more in this semi space, which is micron And see so you're down on micron again. This whole sector fairly light volume so far Today, I mean we had very light volume on Friday Kind of in the last 15 minutes you at least got to get over 10 billion shares But that's not a huge day, but of course August tends to be a little light Anyway on micron If we go back to the ninth, which is the last low on that you had 33 million shares today with the 7.2 So smh is prime for a bounce, but no sign yet. 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Watch online at tfnn.com or on tfnn's youtube channel And become the investor you were born to be TFNN educating investors The technology around us is changing every day with so much happening it can seem impossible to keep up with all the information David white's investment newsletter the technology insider is designed to give you all the information you need to understand the technology That shapes today's markets and tomorrow's future David white has made his living staying on the cutting edge of technology His weekly newsletter will give you specific recommendations for value tech stocks As well as entry prices target prices and stops to set for each trade Dave delivers his weekly newsletters every friday with updates throughout the week You can get the technology insider at tfnn.com for only 37 dollars and 50 cents Sign up for david's newsletter the technology insider and get an inside look at everything the technology sector has to offer Try it risk-free today with our 30 day money back guarantee tfnn educating investors Are china a shares hot or not? If you trade china a shares now may be time to take a closer look Trade chau or chad Directions daily csi 300 china a share bull and bear etf's china a shares in either direction Visit direction investments.com today an investor should consider the investment objectives risks charges and expenses of the direction shares carefully before investing The prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus Please contact direction shares at eight six six four seven six seven five two three The prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk Including the possible loss of principal the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor four side fund services llc This program is brought to you by vista gold traded on the nyse american and tsx under the symbol vgz Just in the bick of time so Had to run to the mailbox real quick Okay Let's go back and look and see if anything happened in the last few minutes Okay Yeah, we're just kind of drooping a little lower out here Anyway, we looked at micron Got some email here. So let's go through those questions Okay question about apple And as I said last week, it was pretty interesting to see how Hard they were actually pushing on apple in the last few moves higher into last week But even on this one, I'm kind of thinking that we're going to get that double repo pattern if this is going to fail up here um generally You close underneath the three by three after you've been on the opposite side of it for so long as this one has been You get the big move down and you don't get a lot of volume What you start getting then is a move back above it And then the next move down below it is generally where you get the huge volume so i'm not a I'm not saying that this couldn't do a 50 percent retracement right now. I'm just saying that as far as uh Uh folding like a five dollar suitcase probably Odds are 80 that it doesn't but it you could get a couple of days maybe even the next week now We talked about that being Into the labor day weekend Generally by Wednesday of next week. We see the hedge fund guys all out in the hamptons or on vacation Volume really that Thursday and friday tend to be very light So could you see maybe something where we have a few days like That this week maybe a little bit of a attempt go back up on lighter volume and then start seeing September maybe a much uh bigger move lower you could Um what you would love to see is very light volume into the labor day on the way down Uh, then you might have if you're bullish thinking you have that kind of scenario that launches you into a bullish There's maybe probably half of september last half of september But uh remember september is probably one of the most dangerous months Um as many of the people on wall street sell the old and try to find a faster horse So you get a lot of both up and down As a trader Um, yeah, it's generally very good if you can catch the right side Uh, okay Oh, we have a couple other questions out here. Look at microsoft real quick and And of course, uh, you're back down to what should be support Uh, you went sideways from the 29th of july Until you gapped up on what is that the 10th of uh, august and You know, I never really understood the real pop on this other maybe too many people were shorted The news wasn't that good. It wasn't bad either Uh, now this one's a little bit different in that You know most of these days that went sideways from the 29th of of uh, july had some decent volume And not monstrous you went sideways for a while before earnings But uh, you're back into really the strongest day was 32 million shares on the 29th of july You're into it with about 12 million shares. We're probably somewhere around support But again, that doesn't mean just because you uh, are not going down any longer doesn't mean that you're going higher You want some kind of sign and want to follow that up with a sign of strength Okay question about tesla from john Somebody made a comment earlier in the den. I don't can't remember who it was about ford uh, getting rid of uh, maybe some legacy and uh, positions and general motors, uh, both of them trying to get into the ev space A little bit of the news, uh, about that, uh, ev space in the attack insider this morning, which I think Is probably the long term of ev So far in tesla You're down so far today on 14 million shares that goes back into a 28 almost 29 million share low on the ninth itself so At the moment, I don't see a lot generally what you do is Do get kind of a bounce you go higher either get volume or you don't and generally on the next one That is where you start seeing the real acceleration lower So generally again, if you're bullish, you probably want to see this pull back on light volume And continue and shake all the weak hands out and then you can go higher if you're bearish Then you kind of want this to go up higher one more time Really have no volume and then see the bottom drop out Okay a question about work day Uh this These things were kind of up on light volume to begin with so it's not a big deal to see these things pulling back um now Again, the volume is kind of a tale of two cities depends on which stock you're looking at some of them Uh are more than others but for the most part not huge volume at least so far today um, you're back into kind of a left shoulder over here from about the what is that? The third of august through the fifth And those days had a think about man, let's call it an average of about two million shares You get about 1.7 so far today So this is one probably that looks a little bit weaker to me You've got two gaps. So expect a third one Or at least i would before i would start playing it uh u and g um again hard to say that uh There's any chance for this thing pulling back anytime soon Now the only thing is that you did gap above the previous big time high on june 8th That had 14.6 million shares light volume moved at five But it is holding that And again seasonally shrink uh Very strong through march of next year So very tough to look at it energy was about the same on the way down on the way up But again, uh a world needing energy And many people trying to cut anybody that's actually trying to produce energy off at the pass China has said, uh, I think it was over the weekend that they're going to buy a lot more of what russia has in both oil and natural gas That may take a little off The world stage and of course the soddies over the weekend too said that they're going to start Um cutting back production a little bit next month. So I know it's not crude, but these things kind of go together And uh, you know, you really need to to negate this move even with a lot of volume You really need to close below 32 77 uh to get it and but uh You know, sometimes the fundamentals are just so overwhelming that even on light volume You got to say It's going to be a tough road to kick, uh Natural gas lower. We'll be back after this Vista gold owns and operates the largest undeveloped gold project in australia the mount todd gold project Vista gold just completed their feasibility study resulting in a 7 million ounce gold reserve Vista gold has all major permits approved and has retained c i b c capital market assistance in evaluating alternatives and in completing An accretive transaction. 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Just visit the front page of tfnn.com Catch tom o'brien professional trader and educator founder of tfnn also a special guest on cnbc Tom will bisect and dissect the markets the tom o'brien show next on tfnn As we come to the close of another excellent power trading hour I got tom o'brien sitting in the wings ready to go And wrap up the day we'll see but uh, i'm thinking that it's probably going to be wednesday before we See much of anything of course today. It's the first day of options rollover tomorrow. I'll be the second Uh, not uncommon to see kind of that but uh, yeah a lot of these things could get I think one more gap lower We probably want to see a lot of people starting to freak out. We don't have that yet But generally you want some kind of big tick or something else Out here instead of a slow slide Of going down a point another point Not a lot of volume another point lower That drift lower doesn't have to stop anytime soon. It can continue for a while, especially when they're slow fast markets tend to Extinguish themselves fairly quickly and change direction Uh, this kind of stuff you really want to keep an eye on Uh, don't get too far out over the tips of your skis if you're short and wait for the whites of their eyes If you think you're going to go long But uh, yeah, a lot of these could get one more gap lower. I was talking to somebody In the den Uh, yeah, you could get one. In fact, I love that And then see whether or not anybody really Starts getting interested in buying this market at all, but no real signal yet. Just a lot of drift lower of fed Speech on friday I think there's a lot of people going on if i'm right That's at one o'clock their time, which is about 11 o'clock Or 10 o'clock our time last time they had one of those So i'll i'll i'll check into that and we'll talk about it But uh, it's probably going to be sometime friday And the question is uh, does he try to double down on being hawkish? After being kind of uh, sanguine at the last fomc meeting So anyway, uh, not a lot to do yet to wait for the whites of their eyes So when you can not when you have to we'll see you here tomorrow same bat channel same bat time Building wealth trading in the stock market seems impossible