 We're about to have Tim Ord and of course, you know, Tim gets interviewed by Tom every Tuesday and Thursday, but I've been listening to Tom, to Tim for a long time when Tom and Tim used to discuss the market back in early 2000s, I would be listening. So I'm going to just quickly go to this chart and I'm going to say, hi, Tim. How are you? Hi. Yeah. First time we ever talked. I don't think I ever talked to you. I don't think so either. Glad to meet you. I've listened to you for, well, since the early 2000s and I remember I used to be out on the Newton North tennis court with my friend and at about three o'clock and I'd have my little portable radio and I'd be listening to you and being interviewed by Tom. I'd be playing tennis with my friend Jake and soon after that I became a host here at TFN. So it's wonderful. Come on. I want to put your charts up right now and I want to say Tim has a newsletter called, there we go, the ORD Oracle. If you want to just tell us briefly about it because I know you want to go right to the charts. Just if you want to start us off with that. With the ORD Oracle or you want to start with the charts? Just exactly how people can reach you at Tim. Okay. I have a website www.ord-oracle.com and that's where my website is so I do have a Twitter account or I think it's at oraclealloneword.com other than that I post some stuff around stock charts every Tuesday and Wednesdays sometimes but so not a lot of stuff out there so I don't advertise a lot mostly word by mouth so we can actually move on to the charts if you want to. Great. I've got chart number one and if you'd like to start with that I'd love to hear your analysis. All right. Anyhow, I'm going to look at the bigger picture and take it down to the smaller picture and on the bigger pictures things have to happen at significant lows and this chart kind of goes back and go back further but the further you go back you really can't really see what's going on but one of the requirements is for the top window of the McCullin Oscillator and what you need for a bottom is basically a selling climax and right after it you need a buying climax and there's different degrees of time as far as there's smaller buying selling climax and there's kind of intermediate terms selling climaxes so we're going to go through those and this is the summation index or no this is the Oscillator one which is the top window and to get a selling climax on this indicator you need to follow up below minus 300 and the red lines across this chart this chart goes back to 2000 mid-18 2018 and going forward and so it picks up identifies all the major lows that happen first again you need a selling climax which is a minus 300 Oscillator then you need a rally right after that to a plus 300 and once you get that use you're looking at him at term low this picked up the 2019 low and also the the covid low you had a selling climax to a buying climax and the current time frame you actually had two of two selling climaxes into two buying climaxes you had one in October of 2022 was pretty much came at the exact low and you had another one in the April period where the McCallan Oscar fell below minus 300 then rallied above 300 so that's that's spurred out so intermediate term wise the McCallan Oscar is has gave bully signs how long can these rallies last most the time they're at least multi-month and sometimes are multi-year so since we got two of them you know it could be the current rally could go on for a we'll have some you know consolations along the way but in general it's a bullish year-mid term sign number two okay I can try this chart number two and this is the chart that says new york stock exchange McLean summation index and the confirmation of the bottoms and the tops yeah yeah okay this this chart goes this is summation index actually this is a little bit bigger time frame than McCallan Oscar this is a summation index which is the Oscar added together I guess you might say so it'll I went back further in time on this indicator went back to 2007 and the same things happen you need a selling climax to a buying climax if you notice all the way to the left there there's a shaded area yes and to get a selling climax on this summation decks you need a close below minus 700 and that shaded area shows the time you got down below 700 but what's missing here is a sign of strength or a McCallan Oscar or a summation X rather above plus 1000 yeah right so this is real take a break I'm sure everyone like me are just totally fascinated we were right back with Tim Ward down 111 thousand chapter sitting at the top of Brian we're on with Tim or would be a right back after these messages hi folks a thousand chapter here sitting at the top of Brian we're on with Tim or to begin it did a fabulous a workshop just the other day talking about I think it was the sixth most important technical tools that he uses he's discussing some of them right here we're on to the chart number two so Tim if you can continue all right chart number two on the far left corner in other words this is like the 2007 2008 decline you need the summation decks a fall below minus 700 which is a selling climax then you need a buying climax on this indicator to reach plus 1000 this whole thing should take two months or less if you know you got a bunch of selling climaxers going down into that 2008 low but you never got a buying climax until actually the bottom happened so you have to see a sign of weakness then you have to see a sign of strength so that decline there was never a sign of strength so the market kept going down and you know capitulating I guess to the downside and until that you know the downside was exhausted then you finally got a sign of strength if you go over into the current time frame here we had a selling climax actually that's the blue line this time around right back in looks like about October of 2022 then you got a buying climax I think the red one that was probably November December of 2022 so pretty much marked the bottom what's interesting here on October 27th of last month we got a kind of selling climax we had a summation deck that did get below minus 700 he got 800 minus 800 something and so now if we may get another buying climax or you know a surge here a sign of strength which needs to happen within two months of October 27th which would be December 27th if we get to to plus 1000 that would kind of be a double whammy here far as the bigger picture or the bigger we're talking about a double whammy upside whammy right for the upside part for the upside that is yeah correct right we hit you know October 27th was hit like minus 800 so two months at that December 27th if we see plus 1000 that would go well for next year this mostly signals are around you know they're multi years but most of them are least a year most time longer you can see going back we all met they all came at major lows and get two in a row is pretty rare and right what that means I think kind of adds to the picture would do it I don't know we'll have to wait and see it's in the cards and job number three is the chart number three is kind of a short-term picture I do some stuff with the VIX and the bottom window is a VIX and normally if you if you're below 17 a lot of times the market's in the trending mode and that's that shaded pink area and right now we're around 14 or so and the market's going up here and what I look for this divergence is the middle window or the second window up from the bottom is the SPX VIX ratio right a lot of times this ratio will diverge in other words the S&Ps will make higher highs and this ratio will make lower highs and if you go back in time you can see what happened a matter of fact going into that oh that's late 2022 high the S&Ps were making higher highs that ratio is making lower highs so that was the first one of the reasons why I got out of the market because of this then and then April of this year the market was kind of trending sideways around that 40 look like about 41 42 hundred on the SPX and this ratio is making higher highs that's a bullish situation so the market broke out to the upside and right now I really don't have any burgesses to speak of other than there's a positive virgins because the VIX is below 17 suggesting that the markets in the trending mode far far as the S&Ps we haven't really touched a previous high yet and the SPX VIX ratio is not really confirming or denying is I just wanted to point out it's not really saying anything bearish here but it's not saying anything bullish either but you know it's at the moment I see no really bearish signs here so it's a kind of status quo and the last signal will remain in effect is that kind of how you see it your idea just you know we had a pullback which I did get out of the out of that to July top and I got along again at that actually the day of the bottom which is I think I don't see a reason to be out of the market if you want to go to real short term let's go to chart 4 real quick got it right here yes all right this is really the short term it kind of this is the second window down from the top is the SPX tilt ratio so it's a SP compared to the bond market and the top windows the RS 10 period 10 day RS eye for that ratio and when the ratio goes up too fast which is all those blue lines across the the chart here which is which means the RS eyes above 70 normally you get short term pullbacks and I just want to point out that even though this market just screened up here over the last couple of weeks look at that ratio pretty much around 50 yeah so how do you move yeah so it's it's a little bit unusual so it's not really showing any signs on this relationship to be overbought or anything so you know can the market go down it doesn't pick out every top but I guess when it does give a warning that's usually pretty accurate so and right now you know again the market just screened up here and this ratio has stayed pretty much neutral staying around 50 so I'm sure your time here this doesn't seem to be any yeah I guess any fear about what this ratio so another reason why I'm kind of hanging along we can go to chart 5 real quick got it there it is all right okay the top window is the SPY VIX ratio if this ratio is going up along with the S&Ps which it is right now that's usually a bullish sign if you get if you look back at the going into that July high you notice the S&P which is that circled area right there with a pink area the SP's were going up and that ratio was was it was making lower or higher lows and that was a divergence and so it's suggesting that row he's not going to continue which it didn't and so that was kind of a warning sign and matter of fact you can see go back to the other light blue area back in that February to April May period the SP's were going sideways and this ratio is making lower lows and that was a bullish sign or excuse it the ratio is making higher lows and that was a bullish sign suggesting around he's going to go up and right now which is way to the right and as a boxed in red square area there's no divergence here the S&P's are going up and this ratio is going up so to me there's no real danger here at least not yet so that's great well I think we've got a break coming up if you would like we can do I'd like to come back to do the final one chart number six and we could you hold on yeah we can do that great we'll be back folks now is now done only 86 and the S&P is just flip positive to a plus two and we'll be right back at 45-20 level that I spoke about for the E-mini is just being touched sitting in for Tomo Brian and let me get back to the charts we've got some odd on the line and I just I had it right here there it is okay so we've got this last chart and this is a fascinating one because it's got the RSI for inflation deflation ratio right okay this this is a weekly chart goes back to 2015 and this is a Marty Pring he created this inflation deflation ratio he's an old-timer he goes way back when so I miss with this inflation deflation ratio on the daily but it doesn't say a doesn't seem to say a lot on the daily but on the weekly it really kind of shines here but yeah all I did was put an RFI to this inflation deflation ratio and every time that 30 that's just one say that's a relative strength indicator so just wanted to clarify that yes yeah yeah it's a and it's running out if you notice these these signals are pretty rare you get maybe one a year you know sometimes you go like 2020-2022 you got well you got you know that was a two-year period usually you get maybe one a year and there's only one failure of that failure no that was a high actually there's really no failures in this we did have two of them in 2016 you got one and went market flip sideways that's way to the left of the chart then you got another one later in the year then a market just screamed up for about six seven months but you know last week the RSI of this ratio closed at 28 and change I remember exactly what number it was but you need a close below 30 then you need a close above 30 to get the signal and we did close above 30 last Friday at 28 and change and right now I did this chart earlier today we're at 37 on the RSI as a weekly chart so you need the weekly to close above 30 which is tomorrow so most likely this will be triggered tomorrow and all the blue lines across the area there are when that cell signal triggered is you know is it perfect it comes off of close to all the lows you know actually the one on the current situation probably came in October but we're not going to get the signal until November here which is fine but they all were pretty good signals in the past and sometimes when the RSI gets above 70 you know they can pick out short term or immediate term highs and that's the red lines across the chart shows where those signals are indicated but anyhow once these signals are triggered they're usually multi-month it's not longer oh that's very exciting good yeah so what this suggests we know we're gonna have a multi-month rally that probably will last into next year sometime so again these signals are pretty rare yet maybe once a year and we're getting one right now well tomorrow we may get one so we'll have some market crashes or something I don't think that's happening so just briefly I'd like to touch on this you've got the XAU weekly and you've got the GDX weekly yeah and that's where those signals occurred on that blue lines there so you know they're pretty good you know there was I mean if you just painted if you just took this signal and nothing else you've been you've been pretty good it does a lot better at bottom seem like this this indicator when it does go down it goes down really fast and that's how you get the signals going it does okay at tops but doesn't really time you know if you look the red lines there sometimes they came near high sometimes they didn't but they all came at least consolidation phases so for instance we do go get a signal here tomorrow and your rally really strongly here it will consider and the RFI gets above 70 it will warn you at least you got a consolidation coming that'd be a multi-week consolidation will be at top that's not necessarily true that top may come later but it's a good indicator nobody uses it and so anyhow tomorrow you know probably the big blow came in October and we have some actually signals of different method coming in there and this look like was going to be like a double bottom boat you look to the far right of the chart there we're just making a higher low and so this pattern it kind of looks like a head and shoulders bottom on GDX and XAU where the neckline on the XAU is probably right around that 117 area and on GDX looks like the neckline may come right around close to that 30 area so that's probably what's going to happen here so we don't have it shown to but the bullish percent index for the gold miners index is also rising it was minus 10 here about a month or not minus 10 but 10 in other words 10% of the stocks in a gold miners index were on buy signal now is a couple of weeks or about three weeks ago and currently there's about 25% of the stocks in a gold miners index are on buy signals so that which you need to happen you need the bullish percent index to rise to really get a strong market because as more stocks become on buy signals the more the more stronger that index is becoming and that's what's happening here on the gold miners index so plus stops now a lot of stocks are flipping to buy signals on this rally so that's another bullish sign so how good it's going to be I don't know but it should be a at least a multi-month rally that's you know well so far with with the dollar pulling back that's that's also helping gold and gold seems to have led and the GDX seems to be following I personally like to see the GDX leading gold but I think it's playing catch up for sure yeah actually I watched that ratio the XAU to gold ratio or the GDX GL ratio you know it is performed dismal here over the last couple of months or last several months actually over the last six months it just really hasn't performed at all and maybe that tie will be turning because most bull markets the gold stocks lead the gold and over the last several months that's not the case gold's been leading you know they're outperforming the gold stocks and that needs to be reversed here so I kind of watched that ratio will close and the ratio is like you know all-time lows it really can't get any worse than where it is and so a lot of these penny stocks at some point you're gonna turn into you know I think dollar stocks at least that'll be very exciting right yeah I'm hoping I don't know if that's going to happen or not but the last time something like that happened was basically at the 2000 low and gold in the gold market I think they have ratio all the way up so maybe we'll get lucky and this time around we'll have to wait that'll be very exciting certainly so Tim I want to thank you very much I been waiting for a long time to be able to have a chance to speak with you it's a pleasure on my part thank you very much and fabulous work and I know people who did the workshop really enjoyed it and that workshop folks is still up on the archive if you want to look at it really appreciate it so Tim thank you very much and Tom will respect you on Tuesday have a great weekend thank